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Rasmussen: CO, FL, MO, NC, OH, VA (10/26)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen Reports
10/26/08; 1,000 LV, 3.5%
Mode: IVR
(source)

Colorado
Obama 50, McCain 46

Florida
Obama 51, McCain 47

Missouri
Obama 48, McCain 47

North Carolina
McCain 49, Obama 48

Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 45

Virginia
Obama 51, McCain 47

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Overall great news for OBAMA!

Landslide Baby Landslide!!

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Obama's Pitbull:

One week left folks!!!!!!!!! Lets keep working

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Obama's Pitbull:

@ BOOMFAIL
Its not over yet, please stop assuming

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NorthernObserver:
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Gary Kilbride:

I appreciate it when polls make sense in relation to each other, and the national margin. Those numbers are in line with about a 6 point national edge for Obama.

Remarkable how tight North Carolina is polling, and with tiny number of undecideds.

When you looks at numbers like these, it screams that Obama was vulnerable if the national margin had remained in the pre-economic collapse period, 2-3 point lead. Obama does have comparative partisan index weakness in major states like Florida and Ohio, and Colorado is hardly a cinch for a Democrat. All of those states may be red in partisan index (state margin compared to national margin) this year, along with Missouri and North Carolina and Virginia.

If McCain had been able to keep the national lead to 2 points he could have threatened a Kerry-like scheme to sneak out the electoral college despite losing the national popular vote by a couple of points.

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Rippleeffect:

Since when is 1-4 points a landslide?

Its actually a lot closer than I thought it would be.

I don't think either side can feel secure in this. Not saying Obama needs to worry, but he can't let his guard down.

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NorthernObserver:

With a couple of polls showing Obama with a decent lead in FL, shouldn't they turn FL light blue again?

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Hope Reborn:

Rasmussen is as good as they come and he always gets precise "Nails it" polling in crunch time... only one more update to go, the trend is our friend, and a Landslide is definitely forming...

VA + CO + MO + OH + NC + FL = LANDSLIDE

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lhtk:

All of these obviously one-day polls and on a weekend day. They all could under-represent Obama's support.

Not long to go. And his Wednesday evening talk coming up.

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platanoman:

I think Obama is good shape to win Florida according to the early voting. I don't understand this Ohio poll. What's up with that?

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NW Patrick:

4 points is a landslide in modern day presidential elections. Bush won 1.5% and over 280 electoral votes.

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SoloBJ:

@Rippleeffect:,
Agreed. It's tighter than I thought it would be in Colorado. Same for Virginia but there were a few more VA polls today showing Obama with a more significant lead there. Florida is starting to look again good too.

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carl29:

See guys? This McMaverick with his "mavericky" ways is always on a "mavericky" surge :-)

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Kile Thomson:

McCain Surge Continues... !!!

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NW Patrick:

I'd like to remind everyone to look at pollster averages. Rasumussen didn't do so hot in the primaries. This is why I look at averages. Also, he is the ONLY pollster to show M ahead in NC since 10/6.

PPP (D) 10/25 - 10/26 1038 LV 2.8 49 48 Obama +1
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 50 46 Obama +4
Rasmussen 10/23 - 10/23 700 LV 4.0 48 50 McCain +2
WSOC-TV 10/20 - 10/21 500 LV 4.4 48 46 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 644 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/18 - 10/20 627 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
Politico/InAdv 10/19 - 10/19 698 LV 3.6 49 48 Obama +1
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.0 51 48 Obama +3
Winthrop/ETV 09/28 - 10/19 744 LV 3.6 45 44 Obama +1
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/18 - 10/20 600 RV 4.2 48 45 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/19 1200 LV 2.8 51 44 Obama +7
Research 2000 10/14 - 10/15 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
InAdv/PollPosition 10/13 - 10/13 474 LV 5.0 48 46 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 3.0 48 48 Tie
PPP (D) 10/11 - 10/12 1196 LV 2.8 49 46 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/08 - 10/08 700 LV 3.0 49 48 Obama +1
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/06 - 10/08 600 LV -- 48 43 Obama +5

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s.b.:

All within the MOE and striking distance even on election day. Virginia from a 10 point pread to a 4 point spread. The others are noise. McCain can still win all of these states. I'm not saying he will and anyone who says obama landslide guarenteed with a week to go with these numbers is nuts. Reagan made up 18 points in one week. Clinton lost 10 points in the last week. We'll see. A week is a long time. All these polls say is that EITHER candidate could win any of these states next week.

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platanoman:

VA? Is only up by 4? What's up with that?

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mac7396:

These are terrible poll numbers...for Boomshak.

FAIL!

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rami:

Just a (i guess) usefull detail :

GW BUSH WON ALL THOSE 6 STATES IN BOTH 2000 AND 2004

Sometimes we need to stop staring at the last numbers and take put things in perspective :-)

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straight talk:

Show me state polls that encourages mccain supporters? This pollster is a conservative republican! HE is one of the most accurate pollsters around! And he has always shown that the race was 5-8% nationally! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!! Remember AA Turnout is going to be massive, and the youth will vote in record numbers! VIrginia is Solid Blue! GAME OVER!!!

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Jeff:

Rippleeffect, if Obama wins these states he's ahead in by 4-5% he finishes with 350EV+ easily.

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Rippleeffect:

@NorthernObserver:

Kind of like this?

http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/2114684/posts?page=84

http://www.palestra.net/news/politics/17811


Sounds like Obama staffers are trying to cheat some in Ohio.

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I guess it all depends on what you consider a landslide to be. I'll take 270 electoral votes, I don't even care.

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mysticlaker:

Awesome - A new freeper to play with.

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carl29:

s.b.,

Well said. These crazy libs don't know anything about McMaverick with his "mavericky" ways that keep him on a "mavericky" choice.

Perfect example that of Reagan and Clinton because those 2 candidates were as charismatic as our McMaverick. There is no difference between the charm and likeability of Reagan, Clinton, and McMaverick :-) See guys?

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Disco Stu:

Some analysis of the RAS polls:

Obama Lead, (Swing to Obama)
MO: +1 (-4)
OH: +4 (+6)
FL: +4 (+5)
NC: -1 (-4)
CO: +4 (-1)
VA: +4 (+1)

Net Swing: +3 to Obama.

Conclusion: The noise in Rasumussen's state polls are very high. You have 2 major swings towards Obama and 2 major swings towards McCain, with 2 more state being stable. I guess it's within the MOE, but really pushing the limits. Obama is at least leading marginally in ALL of these states!!

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masselo:

Guys I ve got to say - Obama has lost six points in Virginia within a week -- this has got to be very troubling for the Obama campaingn I, myself, a big supporter of Obama is very concerned >>> i dont know about you guys

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platanoman:

in rasmussen internals, they claim Obama is losing Men by 6. I've check other polls, and it has him up with men.

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axt113:

Rasmussen has a small Republican lean overall, it always tends to give McCain a better result then he's actually doing, the fact that Obama is leading or within the margin of error in all these polls means that Obama is doing great, he's probably slightly ahead in NC and over 5% ahead in the others

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masselo:

Guys I ve got to say - Obama has lost six points in Virginia within a week -- this has got to be very troubling for the Obama campaingn I, myself, a big supporter of Obama is very concerned >>> i dont know about you guys

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Obama's Pitbull:

Im not going to call Landslide until Nov. 4th, Im not going to jinx Obama

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Rippleeffect:

@Jeff:

You're probably right. He'll get a ton of EVs, but maybe win by 2-5% of the pop vote.

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Hope Reborn:

@ Rippleeffect:

If all of these states turn blue, then collectively they result in an EV landslide. The margin of Victory in individual states will matter less than the visual graphic of a blue america on Nov 4th's TV.

@ Gary Kilbride:

You may be right, but it depends on what margin you're talking about. Accounting for cell phone effects, GOTV multiplier effects and Enthusiasm, you may have had to give McCain a clear 3% lead in the pop vote to get him that inside flush. The Electorial College bent to Obama this year with the majority of his votes in the competitive states.

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Obama's Pitbull:

Please stop callin it a win its not over yet, Im a little nervous too

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mysticlaker:

HAHA. We are losing Virginia now. Let's recap Virginia:

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 671 LV 3.9 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 52 45 Obama +7
Washington Post 10/22 - 10/25 784 LV 3.5 52 44 Obama +8
VCU 10/20 - 10/22 817 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 647 LV 4.0 54 44 Obama +10

A lot to be worried about. Really a lot to be worried about.

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axt113:

also another thing, Obama is going to have the last major chance to address the nation on Wednsday, McCain can't match it, Obama will likely garner a nice bounce from it, right before the election, pushing what is a strong lead into landslide territory

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milwsport:

Before anyone gets too excited, it's worth noting that Obama's numbers have dropped in several of these states.

For example, last week Rasmussen had him up 10 in VA. Now they have him up by 4. He lost some in Missouri and in Colorado as well.

On the other hand he gained ground for last week's Rasmussen polls in Florida and Ohio.

Before anyone flames me, I am an Obama supporter. I just think we should recognize that it's not over yet.

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Scott W:

RAS TILT = O+2. SO these are indeed all great results. Polls results are getting to be more and more election day realities rather then "projections" of what might happen. That is why they are closer.

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NextAmericanChapter:

@ masselo:

Four other Virginia polls out today had Obama up by an average of +8 points. Chill out...he's got this!

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lhtk:

Given all the other VA polls that came out today and Ras's Repub lean, I feel just fine about VA.

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Joe Sixpack:

This is no time to celebrate or be complacent. The VA numbers are particularly alarming, since Obama's been enjoying a 7+ point lead in other polls. Perhaps this indicates a tightening race. Also the CO numbers are not encouraging. Given the fact that McCain supposedly pulled out of CO, Obama's lead should have grown, not shrunk to 4 points. FL and OH look all right, but I still have problem believing that OH will actually vote democratic. And MO and NC are just too close. Granted, Obama is not counting on either for a victory, but have some leeway is always good.

The numbers in VA are really concerning me. I think the safest, surest way for Obama to win is Kerry states+IA+NM+CO, and VA as extra insurance if CO does not deliver. If nothing else, flipping VA blue will almost certainly deny McCain victory. VA is crucial.

Now's the time for action to get out the vote. Remember, polls don't win elections, votes do. Help get out the vote!

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M2:

Obviously the Dems can't afford to get complacent, but there's no reason for them not to enjoy the next week.

Let the lunatic fringe on the right try to come up with endless reasons why poll after poll after poll that show Obama winning this election are really good news for McCain. For the pro-Obama camp, this looks to be as simple as execute and win.

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Dewey1858:

"masselo:
Guys I ve got to say - Obama has lost six points in Virginia within a week -- this has got to be very troubling for the Obama campaingn I, myself, a big supporter of Obama is very concerned >>> i dont know about you guys"

Plus, Palin the Uncooperative is in VA currently. Probably along with Caleb the Cabana Boy. Should be good for a +6 Obama bounce.

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carl29:

Don't pay attention to just one single poll when there are more out there. The point is that Obama has kept his lead in all polls in VA above 50%. It applies to any other state. If you look just one poll, you will go crazy.

For example: According to Rasmussen in week A Obama was up in Florida, the in week B he showed Obama down in FL, now in week C is Obama up again in FL. The bottom line is that FL is a battleground state where Obama and McCain are trying to move people to their camp and people respond according to who is campaigning in the state during those days.

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Obama008:

WSP Poll = 8+ O
CNN = 10+ O
Zogby= 7+ O
S USA = 9+ O
Ras = 4+ O

Still about a avg of 7% the polls are going to close a little.

Plus Ras always like to hit Obama with low numbers on mondays. Always

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billwy:

I think this shows that next Tuesday will be a long night. However, assuming an Obama win in IA and NM, all Obama needs is Virginia. 4 points is not a huge lead, and even though three others show Obama's lead as larger today, the important thing to remember is that they all show Obama at or above the magic number 50.
That said, in reference to the other polls, PPP showed a 6 point swing to McCain in one week in NC, that is a lot of movement so maybe they are not as accurate as we might think. SurveyUsa showed McCAin up 1 in MN three weeks ago (no way) and Obama up 8 MO two weeks ago. Sometimes they just have odd results.
And Nate Silver, someone I think we all respect, has talked about how poorly newspaper polls have missed in the past. So I don't really trust the WaPo poll either.
Scott Rasmussen is a republican, and these polls were conducted for foxnews. But just as I don't think the R2000 polls for daily kos are biased for Obama, I don't think Scott is biased for McCain.

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KMartDad08:

@Masselo,

Don't fret so much, brother. Look at the big picture. Zogby (yechh!!) has him up by 7; WaPo has him up by 8; and Survey USA has him up by 9. Ras is showing us the bottom end at 4. Any one of us would have taken a 4 point win in VA just a month ago, so even if that is where this race ends up, we're OK.

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RossPhx:

So, these were computerized polling calls on a Sunday when good weather and good football prevailed across the nation? Now we know how the shut-ins are voting.

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fed:

If Palin is a maverick, and a reformist that fights corruption, shouldn´t she as the governor of Alaska, ask Stevens to resign?

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Obama's Pitbull:

im just saying, not trying to discourage

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BrookLynda:

Let's give Boomshak some credit. There is some tightening in these polls. It's the first time he hasn't been wrong about everything in memory.

Let's let this be a GOOD thing for Obama. There was a possible complacency problem - but no more!

I've now decided to take 11/4 off work and drive down to PA (I live in NYC) and help GOTV. I'm an assistant district attorney and I will also volunteer to help with voter challenges at the polls.

Let's get off our asses, Obama people, and drive this baby home!!

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ruyen:

If anyone heard Democracy Now's show the other day (http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes), you'll know that voting machines are already flipping Obama votes to McCain and the move to steal the election (like Ohio's hundreds of thousands of lost votes in 2004) is already in motion.

Point being: Don't let up, continue to donate/volunteer, and don't get content, even if Obama goes up 20pts in every single state please keep working towards victory.

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Disco Stu:

@ Masselo:

Actually, Obama has gained +1 in VA in the FOX/RAS poll in the last week. Need to compare to the same polls. (Don't compare it to the non-FOX RAS poll...it likely used different methodologies.)
In fact, the FOX/Rasmussen polls for VA over the past 5 weeks have been (towards Obama):
-2 +3 +2 +3 +4
So all is well with the world!

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NextAmericanChapter:

Instead of fretting that Obama is "only" up in some battleground states by 4-5 points, how about celebrating the fact the he has busted his ass off to get within striking distance in places like Georgia, North Dakota, Montana and yes...even Arizona!

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rami:

Kerry + VA + CO + MO + OH + NC + FL + IA + NM = 359 EV's sound pretty increadible.

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oicu:

Have you noticed that Palin only goes to repug strongholds? She's not appearing in any of the parts of VA that are swinging, or where the new voters mostly are. She's only good for exciting the base, but she turns off everybody else.

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Rippleeffect:

@Fed

Problably, but I think she may be trying to save what little respect is left for the man. Imo, it would just make things worse for his family and hurt his family than him.

Does she really have the position to ask him to resign? He's not appointed by her, so I guess it would just be for appearance sake.

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Basil:

@Northern Observer

Nice link. The Obama campaign should be gratified to find so many regular folks (who probably really need those phone calling jobs) who are willing to stand up to the GOP scum-mongers. It's inspiring.

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mysticlaker:

@BrookLynda
re: boomshak
a broken clock is right twice a day...

however

re: polls tightening.
not true. no evidence of this. all within statistical noise area.

Thank you for volunteering and helping out! Not trying to discourage you, just want to keep this realistic.

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JFactor:

It's pure nonsense that Obama's losing ground in Virginia. Don't be hysterical, people. And even if he was you couldn't deduct that from this poll.

Gary Kilbridge, you're wrong. When McCain was about two percents nationally from Obama, Obama had an advantage in the electoral college. He's had the structural advantage in the map during the whole general election. So even if McCain could come as close as 1-3% nationally Obama would in all likelyhood still have a decisive advantage in the electoral college (IO, NM, CO etc.)
_______________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Obama's Pitbull:

She's saving her career

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Ryan in MO:

@milwsport

"Before anyone flames me, I am an Obama supporter. I just think we should recognize that it's not over yet."

Good for supporting O with us, but please come with us about 10-12 into the future....

"Flame" you. Reminds me of back in the day (Clinton years, yeah.)

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maddiekat:

Now that Glenn Beck has gone to Fox I wish Lou Dobbs would follow and then we would have all the pigs rolling around in the same ****.

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Obama's Pitbull:

Hey i voted in Florida, did anybody know that Alan Keyes is on the ballot?
LMAO

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BrookLynda:

Jfactor and mysticlaker:

How can you say Virginia isn't tightening?? Go to the VA page and look at the numbers. O was plus 10 last Ras.

It is tightening in VA. Explain to me how it is not.

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masselo:

I live in Florida but i havent voted yet -- i really dont see myself standing in line for 3+ hours -- i like Obama but not that much_ LOL

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billwy:

@oicu:
Palin was in Fredricksburg earlier-do you live around here? That is not a republican part of the state at all!

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laguna_b:

@ruyen

"you'll know that voting machines are already flipping Obama votes to McCain"

How the hell do they get away with that ****????

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Disco Stu:

@ BrookLynda:
The +10 Rasmussen poll is different than the weekly FOX/Rasmussen polls. Looks like they use different methodologies. The FOX/Rasmussen poll has gained +1 each of the past 2 weeks for Obama.

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carl29:

masselo,

I did it last Monday, the first day of early voting :-) I stood there in line with a whole bunch of people for around 3 hours, there was also a sweet-old lady with a "Hillary women for Obama" button right in front of me, exciting to cast our ballots for Obama.

*In another note: Guess where the RNC is going up with ads? Montana!!!!! Looks like Barack has those guys in RNC on their heels :-)

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Northeastern Republican:

dont know if its been thrown out there yet but zogby has it a 4 point race tomorrow (source: drudge)

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JerryTheAngel:

Bush beat Kerry by 5 points in CO in 2004 and Kerry never had a lead. Obama up 5 points.

Bush beat Kerry by 5 points in FL in 2004 and Kerry never had a lead. Obama up 4 points.

Bush beat Kerry by 7 points in MO in 2004 and Kerry never had a lead. Obama up 1 point.

Bush beat Kerry by 12 points in NC in 2004 and Kerry never had a lead. McCain up 1 point.

Bush beat Kerry by 2 points in OH in 2004 and Kerry had a 1 to 2 point lead in some polls and Bush had a 2 to 4 point lead in some polls. Obama up 4 points.

Bush beat Kerry by 9 points in Virgina and Kerry never had a lead. Obama up 4 points.

GAME........SET............MATCH

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Obama's Pitbull:

Masselo,
i was excited and so were the people in line. Pretty nice evironment

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maddiekat:

Fu#k Drude and Fu#k Zogby

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syrac818:

Zogby's swings are just unreal, lol. Good though, please keep the Obama supporters motivated and this is NOT OVER.

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laguna_b:

Ted Steven is staying in the race! (going down with the ship!)

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Obama's Pitbull:

Can anybody tell me how does Drudge gets the Zogby polling so early? Isnt Zogby suppose to still be polling in the evening WHEN FOLKS ACTUALLY GET HOME FROM WORK LIKE RIGHT NOW? Zogby is a joke

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Dana Adini:

Lynda 5 polls in VA today Obama was leading in all of them by average of 7%. Rasmussen was the outlier

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bmrKY:

"Let's give Boomshak some credit. There is some tightening in these polls. It's the first time he hasn't been wrong about everything in memory."

The polls may be tightening a little, but the main thing is that Obama is still ahead and getting over 50 percent in the national polls and the crucial states he needs to win. That's all I care about. I don't care if he's up 20 or 1 in Virginia. As long as Obama wins by one vote in Virginia on election day, that's all that really matters.

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Obama's Pitbull:

Does he poll during the day when old people are home?

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laguna_b:

Drudge GIVES Zogby the numbers to use...wanna know what he gave them for the week?

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BoomzAnAss:

Not one post from Boomshak. Hope he's OK. Maybe it's just too depressing for him.

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truebljb1:

Zogby tighting up. If the race continues to tighten, and no one says it will, I feel good about McCain because Obama has to win in more favorable areas to McCain. Also, if McCain can win New Hampshire (which he might after Obamas wealth redistribuiton comments today. NH is fiscal conseratvive) He can lose Iowa, NM, and Colorado and get to 269. That is a tie and even though the dems have more congressmen, each state gets a vote and repubs have the majority in more states. That is why NH is important. Of course this is moot if Obama picks off any of the other Bush states.

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NextAmericanChapter:

A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE ASSASSINATION PLOT

A quick preamble…I support Obama and even volunteer for him, however:

Every time an issue related to race dominates the news cycle, it’s not good for Obama. The mug shots of the two skin-heads are currently being flashed on television screen across America. All this does is to remind people of some of the racial tensions that exist in the country. My own grandparents lean Obama but every time the issue of race is raised, they roll their eyes as if to say “I don’t need any black-white drama…can’t we just vote for the guy already and get on the road to fixing the economy?”

This election needs to remain a referendum on the last eight years and on the economy. Obama did a brilliant job of re-focusing people’s attention to this in his closing argument today. He’s going to do it again with his primetime address. Might I make a humble suggestion...if the assassination story comes up with family, friends or co-workers, shift the conversation back to the economy, tax cuts for the middle-class or healthcare.

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WPBLiberal:

Aww... Zogby and Drudge are just giving some people hope.... it is quite funny really.

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carl29:

truebljb1,

Well said. Of course that McMaverick is on a "mavericky" surge. Tell them :-)

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laguna_b:

>>>That is a tie and even though the dems have more congressmen, each state gets a vote and repubs have the majority in more states.

Actually Dems control more state last I heard....

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JerryTheAngel:

Bush beat Kerry in ND in 2004 by 27 points. The race is dead even.

Bush beat Kerry in GA by 27 points. McCain holds a 3 point lead.

Bush beat Kerry in Montana by 20 points. The race is dead even.

Bush beat Kerry in IN by 21 points. Some polls have McCain up by a few points. Some polls have Obama up by a few points.

GAME.......SET........MATCH

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

49-45 is what Zogby was before. It is a matter of what happened with the increments. Did Obama go down from 49.9? Did McCain go up from 45.1?

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carl29:

NextAmericanChapter,

Agree with you. Anything related to race is NOT good for Barack. The good thing is that these things don't stay for too long with the 24-hour news cycle :-)

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oicu:

@billwy:

Really? OK. I understood she was only appearing in the southwest of the state. I guess Fredericksburg is more "real" VA than say Arlington.

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mysticlaker:

HAHA Zogby. Haha.

Use democrats got burned by him twice the last two elections. I hope you enjoy it as much as we did.

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DTM:

Here is Pollster's chart for Virginia:

/polls/va/08-va-pres-ge-mvo.html

No sign of tightening at any sensitivity.

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AlanSnipes:

Stevens convicted in Alaska: Chalk up another Senate Seat for the Democrats.

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carl29:

Pro-America_Anti-America,

You don't get it. Zogby is good when I like the numbers and turns out to be bad when I don't like them, see?

If I don't like the numbers, I would bring up Zogby and California during the primaries. I would also bring that Zogby's brother is an Obama supporter. If I like the numbers, I will only praise and praise Zogby, see? :-)

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CTPonix4BHObama:

People need to chill, I'm not worried one bit about these numbers. Show me a state that Obama needs that has showed McCain leading in every poll since the beginning of October? You can't! Every week for the past 2 weeks we've had to hear "McCain is surging, the race is tightening," and by Wed./Thurs. the numbers are favoring Obama stronger then before.

Let the rubber meet the road and get to work for change, Election Day has yet to happen.

Things that will dominate the news cycle the for this week:
1. Obamas "Address to the Nation"
2. Sen. Ted Stevens guilty on 7 felony charges
3. GOP circular firing squad
4. Obama and Bill Clinton campaign together
5. Obama ground game
These news stories will draw a nice contrast between presidential campaigns AND parties, for downticket races, mixing negative GOP storylines with pos Dem. narratives.

Trust me, the Obama campaign has already mapped out how the narrative of the rest of this campaign is going to go and I wouldn't be suprised if they've come up with contingencies just in case a crisis occurs.

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Schoeby3131:

Can someone tell me how Zogby has already concluded its polling for the day? It's only 5pm on the west coast, and this story has been out for quite a while.

Bueller? Bueller? Anyone? Anyone?

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ndirish11:

Not even close to being over. The race is going to come down to the turnout on election day. I wouldn't be surprised at all if McCain did better than predicted when the actual numbers start to come in.

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mysticlaker:

There are so many problems with zogby, I don't even know where to begin. His weightings are wrong, his methodology is wrong (he surveys during the day), he leaks his numbers for hits. The whole thing makes me laugh now. Just because I got burned so bad in 2004 by looking at zogby as my hopeful poll.

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ndirish11:

Not even close to being over. The race is going to come down to the turnout on election day. I wouldn't be surprised at all if McCain did better than predicted when the actual numbers start to come in.

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boomshak:

DRUDGE SAYS ZOGBY GOES TO OBAMA +4 TOMORROW:

Don't know if it is O+3.5 and rounded up or what...

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Schoeby3131

This I also find interesting. Seems like he finishes up sooner and sooner.

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NextAmericanChapter:

OUCH!!! Campbell Brown on CNN just ripped Sarah Palin a new one....soon to be a youtube classic.

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boomshak:

This race is getting way too close with 8 days to go.

____________________

carl29:

See how good zogby is? He has the numbers ready in it is 8 p.m in the East coast. Just imagine what type of people he reaches :-)

____________________

bmrKY:

"It is tightening in VA. Explain to me how it is not."

My dear, just calm down. These polls being shown here are Rasmussen/Fox polls. They are different from the Rasmussen ONLY polls. These polls have a larger sample size. The poll that showed Obama up 10 in Virginia was a Rasmussen ONLY poll. Last weeks Rasmussen/Fox poll showed Obama up by 3. This week he is up in the Rasmussen/Fox poll by 4 points; a net gain of one point from last week. Mason-Dixon has Obama up 2 in Virginia. Their previous poll showed McCain up by 3; a net gain of 5 points for Obama. Keep in mind, Ras and Mason-Dixon are both conservative polling outfits, and have a republican house effect. If Obama is leading by ANY amount in their polls, then that is proof enough for me that he is leading.

Just sit back, relax and have you a nice cup of herbal or green tea and don't worry about things beyond our control. It's all up to Obama's ground game now. I trust them more than I did Kerry or Gore. They will come through for us. Just relax, have faith and pray for Obama and future of our country. That's all we can do now.

And really, no one gives a **** about Drudge, Zogby or their crappy polls (national and state; I don't care if his state polls show Obama ahead; his polls still suck. A bad pollster is a bad pollster, period, end of discussion), other than neocon loons hoping crazy McRage and the MILF can pull off a miracle. Until Zogby fixes the Party ID of his polls (that only gives the dems a 2 point advantage; more like 7-8 points), he should be ignored like the moron that he is.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

State results lag national by a half-week to a week. With McCain's surge nationally, these small differences will invert giving McCain the lead by this time next week.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Thank god you here boomshak. We were getting worried.

can you please tell me zogby is the greatest pollster now? Please....

____________________

boomshak:

@mysticlaker:

Obama had to poll +2 yesterday for McCain to move to +5 after being +8 3 days. Unless Obama does very well today, McCain could easily go +3 tomorrow.

That would be 2 polls in the MOE and one barely out.

its falling apart right in front of your eyes.

____________________

bmrKY:

"boom****:

This race is getting way too close with 8 days to go."

Oh yeah, Obama plus 1 in Virginia and plus 5 in Florida since the last Rasmussen/Fox combo poll. Yeah, sure sounds like it's getting "way too close." You are a moron. Go blow Zogby with your buddy Sludge. Do you honestly think that Zogby's 2004 party ID for his tracking poll is accurate? Really? So you think the dems only have a 2 point party ID advantage? You can't be that stupid, can you?

____________________

DTM:

I believe the current lineup of state delegations is D: 28, R: 21, Tie 2 (I've included DC, but how the 23rd Amendment interacts with the 12th Amendment is actually a murky area of Constitutional Law). However, the incoming House votes, so this could change. On the third hand, odds are that if anything, it will change in the Democrats' favor. On the fourth hand, if for some reason the Democrats had the lead but slipped below 26, it is possible no one would get a majority in the House. If that happens, they keep revoting until Inauguration Day, at which point the new Vice President (chosen by the incoming Senate) becomes the President.

____________________

MaxMBJ

And how is that going to happen when Obama is leading, today, by around 6% nationally?

____________________

bmrKY:

"MaxMBJ:
State results lag national by a half-week to a week. With McCain's surge nationally, these small differences will invert giving McCain the lead by this time next week."

Hey boom****, whose your friend? He's just as big of a dip**** as you.

____________________

carl29:

See guys? No doubt that McMaverick is surging. Remember that Zogby and only Zogby is the guy. I like his numbers and therefore those are the only ones that count :-)

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ MaxMBJ:
"State results lag national by a half-week to a week."

That's an urban myth that has been debunked. Think about it for a second, where are national poll numbers derived from? Hint, they don’t ship them in from Mexico (although Zogby might).

____________________

maddiekat:

I just watched all 3 cable stations and except for Fox, Diva and Stevens is all they are talking about. Wingnuts I suggest you go to Drudge or Fox because everyone else is going to make you angry. Drudge is the biggest coward of them all because he never has the guts to step out from behind his curtain. McCain is destoying his reputation and taking his **** party down with him.

____________________

laguna_b:

@MAXmbj
"State results lag national by a half-week to a week. With McCain's surge nationally, these small differences will invert giving McCain the lead by this time next week."

Geez, and I thought you MIGHT make some sense....

For McCain to gain in the states, by YOUR analysis, he has to be ahead TODAY in the NATIONAL polls. NONE of them show that...

FAIL

____________________

bmrKY:

Hey boom, look for a Ted Stevens bounce for Obama! Just more GOP criminals. Sad, sad, sad.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Wonder why this Rasmussen Poll wasn't posted with the others.

Hold your ever lovin breath...It's ARIZONA


10/26 (500 LV) McCain 51 Obama 46 - - 2 1 +5R

No third party options provided!

That's down from a 59-38 (+21) lead of a months ago!

Confirms the Zimmerman and Myers polls that everyone said was IMPOSSIBLE to believe!

____________________

jmillerdls:

Not sure why anyone would find these polls at all worrying. Lots of people seem to be under the impression that Obama has to win all of these or he loses. Obama winning just one of these will be more than enough to win the election.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

A 4 point lead this late in the game is a big lead.

Flip it around - Obama is down by 4 in AZ. Does he have any chance to win there?

____________________

laguna_b:

@NextAmericanChapter

LOL! Great line!

____________________

wagthedog1001:

Oh my, the pig with lipstick thing is sticking. It's a stuck pig! The h.s. chick is going to win!


NOT!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Y'ALL,

After a long day of calling voters, I want to say to the GOP dung fleas. KMA!!!!! Your whining about fraud is totally ludicrous. Document ONE case of a fraudulent voter. Not fraudulent registrant. Fraudulent voter. What is beyond dispute is that thousands of legitimate voters are being unjustly purged from the voter roles because of "error." You are a disgusting group of delusional crackpots. I can't wait for November 4. I hope you all twirl into disintegration in your hypocritical fury.

____________________

faithhopelove:

Looking at right-leaning Rasmussen's Rep/Dem/Ind numbers in NC, it seems that he has weighted this poll according to 2004 exit polling; to get to his topline numbers (McCain +1) from his internal numbers, his weighted sample has to have about the same number of Democrats and Republicans (as was the case in NC in 2004).

Early voting in NC has Democrats far outpacing Republicans--55% to 28%.

____________________

maddiekat:

Boom**** you are going to be surprised how many people want a Democratic President, Senate and House. The good news is as a Pizza Driver you will get a tax break under President Obama's economic plan.

____________________

Ryguy:

hey boom, one more week for you to try and annoy people. we've had some good times together... ah the memories... remember that time you said the election was falling apart before obamas eyes? oh those were great times. or, hey boom, you remember that one time where you said the race was falling apart before obamas eyes? oh you! hahaha, you know how to put a smile on my face. oh, and buddy, do you remember that one time when you said the race was falling apart before obamas eyes? oh, and who could forget that one time when you said this election was falling apart before obamas eyes. priceless.

good times man... good times. so many fond memories to keep after this election is over, and you refuse to show your cowardly face around these parts. but at least we will always have the memories.

____________________

OGLiberal:

I believe I read somewhere that the reason Zogby is able to release his poll numbers so early every morning is because his daily results include late responses from two days before the release and early results from the day before. His AM numbers do not reflect a full day of the previous day's polling.

That said, the dude is consistently leaking his numbers to Drudge. What does that tell you? After losing all credibility in 2004 by having Kerry at 310+ EVs on election day, he's basically looking for headlines and FoxNews appearances, hence his wacky swings (in both directions) and "tightening race" narrative in his analysis. (you'll see now alarmism in Rasmussen's analysis - and you also won't seen any wacky swings)

Plus, he's using an '04 turnout/demo model. Maybe he's hoping that model works for him this year since he FAILED in 2004. (and got my hopes up, damn it!)

All through this election season, I've said Zogby sucks even when he shows my guy ahead by a bunch. I stand by that - I trust his polls as much as I trust that insane IBD daily tracker.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Whoa! Shouldn't this put Arizona into the YELLOW?

Rasmussen 10/26(500 LV) McCain 51 Obama 46 - - 2 1 +5R
Myers/Grove (D) 10/23-24 (600 LV) 44 40 2 3 3 - +4R
Zimmerman 10/16-19 (408 LV) 44 42 2 2 10 - +2R

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "DRUDGE SAYS ZOGBY GOES TO OBAMA +4 TOMORROW:Don't know if it is O+3.5 and rounded up or what..."

The purpose of leaking out the poll early is to show the lead is as small as they can....as such I will surprised if they are rounding it up..I would think they are rounding it down like 4.3 becoming 4.0, if at all!

____________________

Louis:

Based on these polls and others Florida, Ohio, Virginia, colorado look very good am more dubious about Missouri and North Carolina will depend on turnout. In any case numbers now look like 306 to 350 in the electorial college. My personal prediction percentages 53-46 Obama 1 % others. Senate race to watch is Georgia where I think it will end in a runoff because of third party vote and 50% requirement. Stevens in Alaska is now through.

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

I'm tempted to start a ‘boomshak suicide-watch’ (T-minus 8 days and counting) but that would be too cruel. Instead, I’ll ask: “Dude, what do you smoke all day?”

____________________

carl29:

Don't tell any "Zogby fan" about Zogby record in 2004.

Final: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%, Bush +0.3

Now, look at Rasmussen: 10/30 - 11/1
50.2% 48.5% Bush +1.7

Look at GW/Battleground: 10/31 - 11/1
50% 46% Bush +4

Look at CNN/USAT/Gallup 10/29 - 10/31
49% 47% Bush +2

Look at CBS/NY Times 10/28 - 10/30
50% 47% Bush +3

Look at TIPP 10/30 - 11/1
46.9% 44.3% Bush +2.6

==================================

I guess Zogby wasn't my favortie guy in 2004, but who cares as long as I like his numbers this time around :-)

____________________

Obama's Pitbull:

@ maddiekat,
LMAO

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

At boomkaka and his ilk:

The state results indicate an inevitable Obama victory, short of some major calamity that benefits Palin the Ignorant Sow and her consort McCain. Period. Fact. End of Story. National tightening, such as it is, results largely from some tightening in NY and CA and in the delusional red part of the nation. In the battleground states, it's over, my hallucinatory jerks. Prepare for an Obama/Biden fest.

____________________

Chris in NY:

These are all within a half point with the MOE. Kind of concerns me a little. Could it be that close?

____________________

M2:

maddiekat, do you mean to say that the media isn't reporting the phrase "Obama is a socialist who pals around with terrorists" on an endless loop? Didn't they get the talking points memo?

____________________

zen:


Even Zogby says it is tie, I don't worry at all about Obama's win.

Zogby is a joke like Bomshack here.

____________________

cinnamonape:

B O'B- Can Obama win in Arizona? With over a week left and a thirty minute speech on TV? After gaining 17 points in less than a month of not even seriously campaigning in a State? With two other polls suggesting an even CLOSER race?

Democrats are also up 2:1 in Arizonas' early voting figures.

You tell me?


____________________

LordMike:

Obama has not lost any ground in VA... These Fox News polls need to be compared to previous Fox News polls by Rasmussen, and not the Rasmussen VA poll done late last week. They use different methodologies, weightings, and sample sizes. Compared to last week's "swing state polls", Obama has actually gained a point in VA.

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "its falling apart right in front of your eyes."

Enjoy it will you can 'cos you have just 8 more days left!

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ cinnamonape:

You've gotta throw an old dog a bone...Obama should stop campaigning in Arizona.
(I jest...I jest)

____________________

Bigmike:

These are all really close with MOE. How can either side celebrate?

____________________

NorthernObserver:

Here's a visual representation of the electoral situation at the moment. Even though it's McCain's move . . .

http://www.cagle.com/working/081025/cagle00.gif

____________________

mysticlaker:

boom...actually mark explained it

51, 54, 49, 49, 49

That is how it moved so quickly.

It'll fall apart when I see we don't have 286 EV's in the bag. Then I'll start to worry. Until then, I'm all good.

____________________

maddiekat:
____________________

BrookLynda:

Thanks for the thoughtful responses, all.

I'm still going out to GOTV on the ground 11/4 and I think you should, too.

____________________

straight talk:

For those concerned about Obama single digit leads being within the Moe, I got one question for you. What if Obama Lead is bigger than what these polls are sayin? Remember polls take the youth for granted, they do not account for AA turnout that could flip southern states? This is why I think that Obama numbers may be higher because, he has other voters that are usually unreliable to actually go and vote! And Obama is getting white workin class voter at the rate not seen since CARTER IN 76! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!

____________________

boomshak:

OBAMA DOESN'T BELIEVE IN THE BUSH TAX CUTS? FINE, HE CAN PAY HIS BACK TAXES SINCE 2001 OF $250,727. I'M SURE HE WONT MIND...

Guess what...If Barack Obama's tax hike had been in place since 2001, he would have paid over $250,000 more in income taxes than he actually did. This assumes that the 33% bracket stayed at 36%, and that the 35% bracket stayed at 39.6%.

Here's the breakdown:

2001 - $420

2002 - $585

2003 - $910

2004 - $0

2005 - $60,257

2006 - $27,002

2007 - $161,555

Total Tax Gap - $250,727

Americans for Tax Reform today challenged Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to put his money where his mouth is and pay up on his “tax gap.” Specifically, if Obama’s tax-increase policies had been in place since 2001, he would have paid $250,727.70 in additional income taxes.


This does not even count the additional Social Security payroll taxes he would have had to pay under his tax-increase plan, nor any interest or penalties!!!!

So...before Sen. Obama continues on his "spread the wealth" socialism tour, he may want to put his money where his mouth is. I say, either put up or shut up! If he is so convinced that repealing the tax cuts are good for the economy, why doesn't the Senator pay what he would have owed if those cuts where not their in the first place.

Doesn't sound like such a good idea anymore now does it?

____________________

TheCanadian:

On Wednesday Zogby will be back to +5 and on Thursday +6 for Obama as Sat and Sunday polling falls off.

____________________

fed:

That Zimmerman AZ poll must have the McCain Campaign buying all the valium in Virginia

____________________

Chris in NY:

Good point Straight Talk. I just can never underestimate the stupidity of the American people. That's why close polls get me nervous.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

Here's what Nate over at 538 has to say about today's polls, including this one:

John McCain is making no progress in his pursuit of the White House. Our model now projects Barack Obama to win 351 electoral votes to John McCain's 187, and to win the Electoral College 96.7 percent of the time to McCain's 3.3 percent. Both numbers are unchanged from yesterday.

http://www.cagle.com/working/081025/cagle00.gif

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

Boom really has nothing left to hang his hat on.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@boomshak

Who in the hell is asking anyone to pay taxes on that schedule? Not Obama. So what the hell is that schedule supposed to represent. You are really starting to come across like an asshole, rather than just a typical GOP dung flea.

____________________

British Observer:

There is clearly a some movement here. I'm not so sure that these are a decisive set of polls for any side. Ohio and Florida are both within MOE, despite a widening lead for Obama in Fl. On top of this Obama's lead in Va has narrowed.
It appears to me that at this stage the popular vote (US wide) polls are less relevant and that attention should be on the state polls. If McCain can move Oh, Fl and Va a few points in a week then the game changes I suppose. Presumably it all depends how events roll out over the next week and whether or not McCain/Palin have found a theme that can chime with enough voters to produce some kind of a turnaround. Very tricky but it is possible.
What of internal polling for McCain? Does anybody know whether or not they are producing different results to the published polls?

____________________

faithhopelove:

UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL
(updated)


4 Days Ago:

Obama ~ IN
Joe Biden ~ NC

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ PA


3 Days Ago:

Obama ~ HI
Joe Biden ~ WV, VA
Michelle Obama ~ OH
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ PA, CO
Bill Clinton ~ KY

McCain ~ CO
Palin ~ PA, MO


2 Days Ago:

Obama ~ NV, NM
Joe Biden ~ VA
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ TX, NM, UT

McCain ~ NM
Palin ~ IA, IN


Yesterday:

Obama ~ CO

McCain ~ IA, OH
Palin ~ FL, NC


Today:

Obama ~ OH, PA
Joe Biden ~ NC, FL
Michelle Obama ~ NV

McCain ~ OH, PA
Palin ~ VA


Tomorrow:

Obama ~ PA, VA
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NM, CO
Hillary ~ NH

McCain ~ PA, NC
Palin ~ PA


Wednesday:

Obama ~ NC, FL
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NC
Bill Clinton ~ PA, FL

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ OH, IN


Thursday:

Obama ~ FL, MO
Joe Biden ~ MO
Bill Clinton ~ FL, MN

McCain ~ PA
Palin ~ PA, MO


Friday:

McCain ~ OH


Saturday:

Palin ~ NC


Sunday:

Bill Clinton ~ NH


Speculation on locations of Obama's final weekend (Friday-Monday) rallies:

Philadelphia
Cleveland
Columbus
Miami
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Arlington
Charlotte
East Chicago/Gary
Indianapolis
Des Moines
Omaha
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Madison
Phoenix

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ Bigmike:
"These are all really close with MOE. How can either side celebrate?"

Way to be a kill-joy Big Mike!!!
However, much as I hate to admit it, you’re right. Obama supporters, let’s keep the frontlines fortified…we have eight more days of battle ahead of us. Vote, get your friends to vote, get your grannies in FL to vote.


____________________

boomshak:

@straight talk:

CNN predicted Clinton would be Dole by 15 points. He beat him by 8. Why did they miss so badly?

Because (supposedly), Clinton's supporters were so much more 'enthusiastic' than Dole's. Guess not so much.

It is possible the polls are wrong and are showing numbers for Obama too high by overestimating enthusiasm once more.

8 days to go and Obama is 100% on the defensive. Maybe he can save himself with his "super-commercial", we'll see.

Hannity just did a brilliant 1 hour piece last night on 10 reasons not to vote for Obama. I'm sure a lot of people saw that too.

____________________

Bigmike:

straight talk:

What if Obama Lead is bigger than what these polls are sayin?

What if the opposite is true? Gonna be a lot of blue libs.

Strange you should compare Obama to Carter. I get dog piled by libs for doing that. If Obama turns out like Carter, he will be a one termer too.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Boomshack~

How about what's fair is fair. If you want Obama to pay the "tax gap" then all those who make over $250K during the Bush years should also.

This would go a long ways to helping pay off the deficit, produce the revenue that would allow us to stay perpetually in Iraq, and bail-out the major finance houses.

____________________

TheCanadian:

Boom, Yeah, a lot of dems and independents watch Faux news for an objective analysis of the elective. He's only getting McCain's base with his talking points.

____________________

boomshak:

@NorthernObserver:

Here's what Nate over at 538 has to say about today's polls, including this one:

Nate is a 100% Obama hack. Fine if you want to read him, but also know that he wants Obama to win.

To say McCain is no better off despite collapsing poll numbers for Obama is just silly. He is giving no weight to momentum at all, just the number as they stand today.

____________________

boomshak:

According to a new study, they estimate 1/3 of all Obama Supporters live with a McCain Supporter.

Yep, they may have seen it.

____________________

MDB1974:

These polls are, for the most part, improvements over the last fox/ras polls. Rass by themselves pull higher numbers for O. Funny, fox news seems to bring down O's numbers.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Tomorrow, in Florida Sarah Palin will appear with Katherine Harris and...


"Diego The Poolboy"!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

AT EVERYONE:

Are you guys crazy? The polls are only confirming that Obama's In like Flynt. The futures' trading has Obama up to an 88% chance of winning. Don't let the GOP a-holes distract you. Tonight is fine, but get on the phones and pad that lead tomorrow. It's butt kicking time; November 4 is going to be sweet.

____________________

TruthHurts:

FOR CONSPIRACY THEORISTS: The polls released at 6PM are provided by "Fox/Rasmussen". These "Battleground" polls include: CO,NC,VA,FL,OH and MO...The "Fox/Rasmussen" Battleground polls released 1 week ago consisted of all of these states MINUS Virginia...Rasmussen released a separate "Virginia" poll earlier in the day last Monday (poll is dated 10/16). I don't think that it's a stretch to consider that Fox did not want Virginia's #'s included on the day that it showed Obama +10...Ras has a solid rep but he IS a GOP pollster who is subsidized by Fox...When I noticed the slight-of-hand on Virginia, it led me to believe that the Fox/Ras Battleground polls might be considered "worse case scenario"?....I'm new here so I'd welcome feedback from the Poll Pros here at Pollster.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@boom 8 days to go and Obama is 100% on the defensive. Maybe he can save himself with his "super-commercial", we'll see.

now that made me laugh. the only day obama is scheduled to be in a "blue" state is tomorrow AM in PA.

Look at the McFool/Pig schedule. Enjoy!!!!

____________________

Napoleon Complex:

Can't wait for November 5th when the lights in the kitchen are turned on and the cockroaches like boomshak, Hannity, O'Reilly, Limbaugh, Coulter, Drudge and Savage scurry back behind the woodwork.

What a great day in America that will be!

____________________

DTM:

A little math tip:

Zogby gave us his daily yesterday (O+3). So, you can take the margin reported officially tomorrow, multiply it by 3, subtract 3 for the known sample, then divide by 2 to get the average over the subsequent two days.

For example, suppose the margin was a straight +4 tomorrow. You would multiply by 3 for +12, subtract 3 for +9, then divide by 2 for a +4.5 average over the subsequent two days.

And yes, that would be higher than +3. In fact, anything over +9 tomorrow means Obama's margin has gone up on average in the subsequent two days since that +3.

____________________

straight talk:

Cnn Also projected that BUSH WOuld beat kerry by 14+ in Virginia. Bush only won by 8! FOr all you McCain defenders in chief! McCain has two critical things working against him that Bush did not have! HE has a white working class vote promblem, which allows Obama to compete in rural parts of critical battleground states! And he has an evangelical problem! He is not talkin values! He is not talking about God, abortion, and border security! While at the same time driving moderate repubs to Obama because he is allowing the liberal Obama to push him to the fringe right part of the party! THis is why even though I have voted republican tickets in the past, I am supporting Obama! Because he is pragmatic!

____________________

Steve_OH:

@boomshak

Apparently you forgot to go check out the wiki page I'd pointed you to the last time you did something like this (that's okay, we're all busy these days, so stuff slips through the cracks):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

____________________

jeric:

It's definitely close, and with voter roll purges and other dirty tricks it could get a lot closer in the end. But being that close means each state race is going to come down to the people working for each campaign. Between us talking about hope and change, and the McCain campaign talking about socialism and Bill Ayers and homicidal robots from the future and whatever, I'm feeling pretty good about Obama's chances.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

@Boomshak -- you've never addressed one of your postings to me before. Thanks man, I feel whole now.

@Boris -- man, I like your energy and single-mindedness. You go guy.

____________________

metsmets:

VOTE FOR AN UNREPENTENT SOCIALIST??

Sarah Palin is a Marxist
Alaska: America's Socialist State

Sarah Palin's home state of Alaska is the MOST Socialist state in these United States, and she's proud of it!

Alaska has no income or sales tax!
That's because it imposes huge levies on the oil companies that lease its oil fields.
First the state government takes it's hefty cut, then it redistributes the wealth, cutting a four-figure annual check to every man, woman, and child in the state.
Sarah Palin was happy to increase this year’s check by $1200, bringing the per-person total to $3,269, helping her maintain her popularity as Governor.

I wonder how that's not "buying" votes?

Sarah Palin is proud of her states' collective wealth-redistribution scheme.
Sarah Palin said,
“We’re set up, unlike other states in the union, where it’s collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth. when the development of these resources occurs.”

Right out of the Karl Marx play book!

DONT VOTE ALASKA SOCIALIST - VOTE OBAMA!!!

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@Boomshak

"If Barack Obama's tax hike had been in place since 2001...blah blah blah"

You Republicans constantly make me chuckle. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Obama's tax plan will result in LOWER taxes for the wealthy compared to Ronald Reagan. You Republicans consider Reagan to be a tax-policy god and yet call Obama a socialist….unbelievable!

You know, sometimes I wonder if you're not just some 13-year old kid who's having the time of his life goofing off on this site. Just in case you're not, I'll repeat it one more time in desperate hope that it will sink in: Obama's income taxes on the wealthy would be LOWER than Reagan. Obama's capital gains tax would be LOWER than Reagan. Obama's taxes on the middle-class would be LOWER than both Reagan and Clinton. Dude, quit being intellectually lazy and irrationally biased!

____________________

Bigmike:

straight talk

Pragmatic and naive are a dangerous combination.

____________________

carl29:

The latest proof of how good McMaverick is doing:

"Latest Sign of Trouble for McCain: RNC Ads in Montana"

How bad does the electoral map look for John McCain? Consider that the Republican National Committee begins advertising this week in Montana, a classic Republican state.

Democrat Barack Obama has been running ads in Montana for months, hoping to put the state into play and has already spent some $2 million in the state. One recent poll, by Montana State University Billings, has him up by four percentage points. Other recent surveys have McCain up by single digits.

Several independent organizations that track the Electoral College math now classify Montana, based on public polling, as a toss up. That includes former Bush adviser Karl Rove, who also classifies North Dakota as a toss up on his site.

The decision to begin advertising in Montana was made by the independent expenditure arm of the RNC, which is legally forbidden from coordinating with the McCain campaign.


http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/10/27/latest-sign-of-trouble-for-mccain-rnc-ads-in-montana/

____________________

SoloBJ:

I think the BIG problem is that while Obama's lead in these states per RAS show him up only 1-4 points, the fact is McCain needs to win all of these states. McCain can't afford to lose one and that is what greatly puts the odds of winning the election in Obama's favor. Add in the fact that there are only 7 more days left for McCain to defend all of these states and Obama's 30 minutes of primetime on Wednesday...

____________________

political_junki:

@boom:
"Hannity just did a brilliant 1 hour piece last night on 10 reasons not to vote for Obama. I'm sure a lot of people saw that too."

Hannity's show is as effective as Keith Obermann's : Absolute Zero effect

The only people who watch Obermann are people like me, die hard Obama fans who have already decided.
The only people who watch Hannity are die hard anti Obama people who have also already decided.

____________________

Trosen:

boomshak:
"According to a new study, they estimate 1/3 of all Obama Supporters live with a McCain Supporter.

Yep, they may have seen it."

Ehh.. wouldn't that also mean that 1/3 of all McCain supporters live in a household with an Obama supporter? Hope they don't catch a glimpse of MSNBC or any of that dreaded MSM..

____________________

M2:

I love watching the panic coming from the right wing. I fully recognize nothing's official until the votes come in next Tuesday, but how is a Dem supposed to take a steady stream of good news polls and the desperate monkey crap flinging coming from conservatives with anything but a smile on his/her face?

____________________

metsmets:

@Boomshak
Hannity just did a brilliant 1 hour piece last night on 10 reasons not to vote for Obama. I'm sure a lot of people saw that too.

LOL. It's called preaching to the choir.

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

According to Dick Morris!! I'm not kidding, look for it, and look for Dick Morris' articles, you'll have a good laugh my friend
:-)

____________________

maddiekat:

Boom****

I am sorry to leave you however I drove all day and I have a huge proposal to present early tommorow morning. I told you over a month ago that Obama is ahead by 5 percent. On November 3rd Obama will be ahead by 5 percent and will win this election by 8 percent. In four years he will win his next election by the biggest margin in US history. The reason being, Obama is a smart and McCain is a dumb ass. The problem McCain has is only 44% of the American public are stupid and 44% will not get it done. McLiar already has the Drudge and Fox voters wrapped up and frankly everyone else thinks they are desperate and nuts. You are an ass and so is your party!!

____________________

Trosen:

carl.. I still have't gotten through Dick Morris's guide to sucking a hooker's toes.

____________________

political_junki:

metsmets:
"@Boomshak
Hannity just did a brilliant 1 hour piece last night on 10 reasons not to vote for Obama. I'm sure a lot of people saw that too.

LOL. It's called preaching to the choir."

---
You said it better than me :)

____________________

Dewey1858:

"Bigmike:
straight talk

Pragmatic and naive are a dangerous combination."

But not half so dangerous as ideological and cynical.

____________________

straight talk:

McCain is no Conservative! IF you think he is, than answer this question for me? Why is he not 15+ ahead in Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana? Let me tell you why? Because he is a conservative democrat runnin as a Social Conservative to appease the base! But he refuses to reach out to the critical parts of the base, the evangelicals! WHO IS THE REAL McCain? Can you trust this man on immigration? NO, NO,and NO,!

____________________

sunnymi:

@mysticlaker, you make a very good point about the schedule for the remaining days.

In fact looking at it makes me feel McCain has conceded (Kerry States - PA) + IA + CO + NM + NV = 257 EVs and is going "all-in" on PA....if he does not win PA it does not matter what else he wins and that state does not look in his grasp either!

____________________

burrito:

I do not understand these Rasmussen polls ... recently Rasmussen upped the Democrats to Republican ratio to 40/32 (I can no longer find the link in the Rasmussen site though) ... in the case of the Colorado poll, it states that McCain get 88% of the Republicans while Obama gets 91% of the Democrats ... and Obama has a 14 points lead (unchanged from last week) among independents ... so please explain to me what happened? All of a sudden there are more Republicans in Colorado? that does not make any sense ...

____________________

Bigmike:

Dewey1858

But not half so dangerous as ideological and cynical.

Nah, Dewey, I'm not dangerous. At least not as long as I just get one vote. Ohio Democrats, now there is real danger.

____________________

DTM:

A couple random points:

(1) The Clinton-Dole case was one of many examples of late deciders breaking against the incumbent. Incidentally, another such case was Reagan versus Carter in 1980. See here for an article from 2004 by one of our hosts:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/the_incumbent_r.html

This effect may not show up this time since there is no incumbent in the strict sense. But if it does show up at all, it likely will be to Obama's benefit.

(2) The model at 538 does in fact consider current trends. However, instead of just cherry-picking polls to fit a desired narrative about the trends, the 538 model puts all the polls through a weighted regression procedure to determine the overall trend.

____________________

carl29:

Trosen,

I tell you, Dick Morris is such a "reputable" source :-)

____________________

burrito:

I do not understand these Rasmussen polls ... recently Rasmussen upped the Democrats to Republican ratio to 40/32 (I can no longer find the link in the Rasmussen site though) ... in the case of the Colorado poll, it states that McCain get 88% of the Republicans while Obama gets 91% of the Democrats ... and Obama has a 14 points lead (unchanged from last week) among independents ... so please explain to me what happened? All of a sudden there are more Republicans in Colorado? that does not make any sense ...

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ metsmets:
"Hannity just did a brilliant..."

Sometimes I actually feel sorry for Hannity. He's been like a rabid dog trying to take down Obama since March but nothing sticks. My favorite moment was after the first presidential debate when on his Fox show, Dick Morris said "unfortunately Obama won the debate". The look on Hannity's face was priceless and then he replied something to the effect of "what f#cking debate were you watching?" I laughed so hard that my abs hurt for days. Classic TV.

____________________

ElectoralDistress:

I'm actually surprised at the relative consistency of most polls this election cycle. Especially considering we know which pollsters weighting methods add or subtract a few percentage points here and there. Even the occasional outliers still give Obama a lead nationally. What is important is that Obama's lead is typically over the 50% threshold. I fear undecideds will likely break for McCain because that is the true Bradley-Effect. It would seem anyone unable to support Obama up until now is probably held back by racism or other subtle apprehensions tied to race. I find it less likely that people have been dishonest in their support of Obama and more likely they are withholding support for both candidates because of racism. So undecideds will probably break 3 to 1 for McCain, giving Obama a still comfortable 53% majority in my opinion.

Not a landslide by any means, but a convincing majority for the first black president.

____________________

dmuller:

I'm using an average of sites like Pollster, 538 and RealClearPolitics, and of the states that seem in play (average gap

VA NM NH CO: lean>likely D
OH: lean D
NV FL: toss>lean D
NC MO IN: tossup
MT: toss>lean R
ND GA NE2 NE1: lean R
SD WV AZ: lean>likely R

The tipping point at the moment is NM with a margin of D+7.5%, which is incidentially also the number of days remaining in the campaign.

Whilst it looks good for Obama, anything going pear-shape in VA, OH or even PA will make the race much more closer than it appears now. It also seems to me, though I may be very wrong, that "lean R" is quite a bit safer than "lean D". My guess (EVs): Obama 286 EV.

____________________

straight talk:

@ All McCain Supporters

WHY IS YOUR CANDIDATER EITHER TRAILIN OR TIED IN ALL Battle GRound states?

____________________

Bigmike:

DTM

I don't have any link to back it up, but I believe I have heard that in the last few days the numbers tend to move toward the one trailing in the polls. Supporting the underdog, buyers remorse, who knows why.

Do you or anyone else know anything about this. I will look around and see what I can find.

____________________

burrito:

I do not understand these Rasmussen polls ... recently Rasmussen upped the Democrats to Republican ratio to 40/32 (I can no longer find the link in the Rasmussen site though) ... in the case of the Colorado poll, it states that McCain get 88% of the Republicans while Obama gets 91% of the Democrats ... and Obama has a 14 points lead (unchanged from last week) among independents ... so please explain to me what happened? All of a sudden there are more Republicans in Colorado? that does not make any sense ...

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@ dmuller:

The "lean R's" are by no means safer. McCain is in big trouble in Georgia because of the AA turnout and Bob Barr's presence. McCain is also in trouble in Montana because of Ron Paul. Incidentally, Obama performed much better in both states during the primaries than the polls had suggested.

____________________

ticketstub:

@Bigmike

I've heard that too.

I wouldn't be surprised if McCain picks up some ground over the next week. But I highly doubt that Obama will drop in the numbers. And unless McCain picks up a significant amount of Obama supporters, he's gonna have a really tough tuesday.

____________________

carl29:

burrito,

I think that the numbers you got are the NATIONAL party ID, which is not the same at each state.

Do you think that Utah has more Dem. than Rep.? :-)

Maybe someone here is member of Rasmussen service, so they can tell us about it.

____________________

Bigmike:

The answer was easier to find than I thought.

http://www.slate.com/id/2202770/?from=rss

____________________

political_junki:

@Bigmike:
Thanks for the link, very interesting.

____________________

straight talk:

NEWS FLASH TO THE BRADLEY AFFECT THEORY. I think because of that theory alone, pollsters are afraid and analyst are afraid to call this race for OBAMA! It is a racial theory that is not true! That race was turned on a dime because of absentee balloting that did not show up in polls, and significant tightening of that race! Everybody is thinking this is going to happen to Obama because of New hampshire! But you have to remember in that primary he was up by double digits, but you also had HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON cryin in tears in the public! THE sexist card was played! A man making a woman cry! That is why he lost N.H.! Not his race! But the Bradley=affect theory is somethin the O team welcomes because it drives up the GOTV efforts especially among AA! HERE IS AN IDEA FOR THE McCAIN CAMP, LET SARAH PALIN CRY IN PUBLIC! AND WATCH HOW THE POLLS WILL SWING TO THE PALIN CAMP, I MEAN McCAIN CAMP!!! LOL

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orange24:

We're going to miss you after next week, boom. Here's your tight race:

Rasmussen Reports 10/24 - 10/26 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/24 - 10/26 2448 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/24 - 10/26 2343 LV 2.0 53 43 Obama +10
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/24 - 10/26 1203 LV 2.9 50 45 Obama +5
Diageo/Hotline 10/24 - 10/26 879 LV 3.6 50 42 Obama +8
ABC News/Wash Post 10/23 - 10/26 1314 LV 2.5 52 45 Obama +7
IBD/TIPP 10/22 - 10/26 886 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
Newsweek 10/22 - 10/23 882 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
GWU/Battleground 10/20 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
CBS News/NY Times 10/19 - 10/22 771 LV -- 52 39 Obama +13
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9

You cherry-pick the ones you want and the rest of us with go with the national average - you know, like a sane person.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

DICK MORRIS IS A WHORE MONGER AND PERVERT, WHO WAS CAUGHT IN THE ACT. HE'S A TYPICAL MEMBER OF THE PARTY OF HYPOCRITES, THE GOP. WHY ANYONE LISTENS TO THAT CREEP IS BEYOND ME.

____________________

Points taken. In any case, it will be much more interesting watching results trickle in than suggested by some media.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Regarding Dick Morris, you can check out the following about the creep:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/local/longterm/tours/scandal/morris.htm

____________________

fed:

Aparently Obama might hold an event in Atlanta before the election. That would be a surprising move

____________________

orange24:

CNN predicted Clinton would be Dole by 15 points. He beat him by 8. Why did they miss so badly?

This is on account of your friend the main stream media. This race was over fast - a real blowout. I didn't care, because I vote in the morning. But a lot of people didn't bother to vote because the race was over - maybe not officially - but it was clear. I don't think we'll ever see another Reagan-Mondale type of landslide. There's just too much divisiveness in the US today. This forum is a pretty clear indication of that. There is absolutely nothing I can say that will turn you into an Obama supporter - or even an Obama-tolerator. And you certainly will never turn me into a McCain-backer. Too much divisiveness. You won't get that many people crossing party lines like you did in 1984 ever again. Thank the divisive tactics of the Repulican Party the last 15 years for that.

____________________

DTM:

@Bigmike

There are several different possible effects along the lines you suggest (undecided breaking disproportionately for the person behind in the public polls). One is the effect I already mentioned, which is late deciders favoring challengers (since incumbents win more often than not, such an effect would benefit those behind in the polls more often than not). Another is mentioned in that Slate article, and goes by various names (the "Spiral of Silence" effect, "Shy Tory" effect, and so on).

And I am sure there are other theories. However, I've actually never seen someone do a good job of controlling for the various effects to see what has really made a statistically significant difference, although such a study may be out there and I haven't seen it.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The key issues are (a) elections invariably tighten and (b) that candidates behind as far as McCain and the Pig are at this point, while getting closer,will always lose. Reagan might have pulled it out of a hat, but he was running against Carter. This IS OVER! The only issue is how many Democrats will be swept up on the Obama/Biden beach. After this is over, I suggest you Poll-a-philes enroll in a graduate program in political science. In the meantime, celebrate and call Democratic voters tomorrow!

____________________

Bigmike:

Had to step away nriefly.

From the article I linked above.

"From 1944-2000, the final polls predicted a margin 2.2 percent larger than the eventual outcome in the national vote."

From the little blue national map at the top of this page, O is up +7.4.

Lets assume an election within 2 pts can go either way. Don't take my word, ask Al Gore.

7.4 - 2 - 2.2 = O +3.2 and makes it a tight race.

It brings to mind the question someone asked me last night. Why was McCain in IA. I have a new answer. He is looking for fertile ground. If he can move the national numbers enough, wherever the votes come from, then it begins to look like he can win. And if it looks like he can win, just maybe he can.

I was tempted to subtract additional pts since MOST polls have a MSM bias. Even without that, it may be much closer than it looks.

____________________

political_junki:

Boris_Dieter:
"Reagan might have pulled it out of a hat, but he was running against Carter. "

Reagan analogy is false. That year there was a presidential debate ONE WEEK before the election, and the votes flipped because of that, you can read more about it in todays Gallup:

----------------------------------------------
The 1980 example is not necessarily one that John McCain can hope is duplicated this year. Reagan's late-breaking surge that year is generally attributed to the only presidential debate between Carter and Reagan -- held one week before the election, on Oct. 28 -- which seemed to move voter preferences in Reagan's direction, as well as the ongoing Iran hostage crisis, which reached its one-year anniversary on Election Day. After trailing Carter by 8 points among registered voters (and by 3 points among likely voters) right before their debate, Reagan moved into a 3-point lead among likely voters immediately afterward, and he won the Nov. 4 election by 10 points.

____________________

Bigmike:

Had to step away nriefly

Which is just a few minutes longer than briefly.

____________________

political_junki:

"It brings to mind the question someone asked me last night. Why was McCain in IA. I have a new answer. He is looking for fertile ground. If he can move the national numbers enough, wherever the votes come from, then it begins to look like he can win. And if it looks like he can win, just maybe he can."

I cant buy that. IA's population is 3 million, 0.01 of the electorate, lets say he moves 5% of people (which is almost impossible at this stage but lets go with 5%), net effect on national polls will be 0.0005 or only 0.05%!

McCain was in IA because he has an incompetent campaign IMHO.

____________________

Schoeby3131:

The idea that Sean Hannity appeals to anyone but the far right is ridiculous. Hannity hasn't had a new talking point in years (probably because the White House gives him all of his talking points).

Step 1) slam Obama on several points
Step 2) Repeat step 1
Step 3) Repeat step 2

I think there are some right wing authors / hosts who are intelligent: George Will, Noonan, O'Reilly (if he doesn't let his ego get in the way). But folks like Hannity, Limbaugh and Coulter just are not very intelligent people.

The idea that Democrats and independents are going to be convinced by a right wing hack like Sean Hannity is ludicrous.

7 more days.

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Viperlord:

http://www.270towin.com/ Make yer predictions folks. I'm showing 353 EVs for Obama at the moment, with MO and IN as tossups.

____________________

DTM:

I can't really explain Iowa in particular, but the bottomline is McCain has to campaign somewhere, and he has to campaign on the premise that the polls will tighten a lot in his favor--whether or not that premise is well-founded--because otherwise he might as well just give up.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@political_junkie

I agree with you; you said it better; i forgot to mention the debate with carter. I'm just saying that there ain't now way mcCain and his sow running mate are going to close this to victory.

____________________

Bigmike:

political_junki

Your math is a little flawed. At least by a factor of 2. There are not 300 million voters, that is the total population, roughly.

4 years ago there were 122 million votes cast. Lets go way out on a limb and assume 150 mil this time. Using your math, which I wont bother checking the rest, with a factor of 2, that means every stop he can add 0.1% Then he only needs 35-40 stops to make the campaign dead even.

____________________

Bigmike:

political_junki

Damn, I was right about the 300 million, but to be correct I should at the same time not accept 3 milion IA voters. Apples vs oranges. Forget the factor of 2, LOL.

You get my drift. If he can make the polls tighter, it looks more like he can win.

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political_junki:

"You get my drift. If he can make the polls tighter, it looks more like he can win."

Yes, I know what you are getting at...

____________________

political_junki:

This is from 538. I know, he is a Obama supporter but he is good at his job, confirmed by has past predicitions:
-----------------------------------------------
What Would 'Tightening' Look Like?

There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?

Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Holy Cow Guys,

So you need an operational definition from Nate Silver to understand what is obvious? The prospect of serious "tightening" (not to be confused with the malady associated with the behinds of conservative moonbats) at this point is virtually nil. Let's wait for manana's polls and that'll confirm that they sorta look like today's. There will then also be Obama's Wednesday talk, during which things will either stop moving or move in Obama's direction. Shop for the cigars and find some nice big matches appropriate for a victory smoke on November 4.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Damn you guys really need to enroll in some graduate program in political science. You are totally into verbally fondling the numbers and making a very simple thing complex, namely: Obama/Biden are going to win and the Lipstick sodden sow and her Erratic Consort are gonna lose.

____________________

DTM:

Nate's litmus test is well-grounded in an understanding of our electoral system plus a little math, but obviously it won't do for the purposes of many journalists and McCain partisan precisely because it would be so hard to achieve.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Ladies and Gentlemen:

Yes there will be tightening. But so long as Obama stays above 50% nationally, it means nothing. Moreover, considering only the key battleground states, the movement is imperceptible. Movement at the national level is due to some tightening in states like California and New York and deepening redness in the red states. Of course, anything can happen. As an Obama supporter, I worry. As an analyst and looking solely at the numbers and history, I would say that the Sow with Lipstick and her Erratic Consort are Chipped Ham and Toast.

____________________

bmrKY:

"boomshak:
According to a new study, they estimate 1/3 of all Obama Supporters live with a McCain Supporter.

Yep, they may have seen it."

And according to a new study conducted by everyone on this website, you are a dumbass. But I guess that was never really in doubt.

____________________

Bryce:

Truth be told, Obama just needs to hold CO, NM, and NH for a victory, and that seems like it's likely to happen at this point. States like OH, VA, NC, FL, NV, and MO are icing on the cake at that point. McCain needs a sweep of ALL those states to have a chance, and I honestly don't see that happening.

But as they say, it ain't over until it's over. Next Tuesday should be a very interesting night.

____________________

bmrKY:

Datamar Florida:
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 44 (42)

MCCAIN IS SURGING, NEOCONS! SAINT DRUDGE SAYS SO, AND THAT IS THAT! REJOICE!

____________________

political_junki:

bmrKY:
Could you share the link?>
Thank you.

____________________

political_junki:
____________________

bmrKY:

@Bryce

Exactly.

Pennsylvania ain't flipping. The neocons just need to forget about it. Their strategy there clearly isn't working. Neither is the socialism schtick. It's so laughable. They try it every 4 years on the democrats it seems, and it's always the same ol' line of bull****, neocons trying to cover their asses for failing the American people. They are the party of ABSOLUTELY NO RESPONSIBILITY, and just throw out negative racial/sexual/ideological remarks about their opponent for as long as they can get away with it.

Bottom line is, like you said, Obama just needs ONE of those states you mentioned. The national polls don't matter (and even if they did, Obama is still leading in all of them, even the outliers with 45% of the survey identifying as evangelicals). It's all about the electoral college, and as of right now that's a VERY good thing for Barack Obama. But like you said, we'll see. I'm certainly not going to make wacky predictions like our conservative counterparts.

____________________

TheLioness:

It has come to this. The NAACP has sued Gov. Kain of VA, a Democratic governor no less, over worries that the state is ill-prepared for unprecedented voter turnout. http://www.nbc29.com/Global/story.asp?S=9248665&nav=menu496_2_5

This is why I, like so many of my friends, cannot find comfort in the polls no matter how far ahead Obama gets. We're convinced that in racist places like Virginia (and don't tell me I don't get to say it, or it doesn't count because in large areas of the backward-ass cracker south it DOES. I'm white, have lived in Richmond and know just exactly how painfully bad it still is here.) If Obama loses Virginia, it will be because people couldn't wait in line for 6 hours to vote, or waited in line and were turned away when the polls closed,or had their names purged from the rolls illegally and were turned away.

My personal mission is going to be to spend November 4th at the poorest of Richmond's polling stations, holding people's places in line if they need to go to work, or pick up their kids, or WHATEVER. And no Boomass, I won't even ask what their party affilliation is, because as a democrat I happen to believe every vote should be counted, even those of imbeciles like you.

____________________

GlassHalfFull:

Okay, I'll throw in. You are all having too much fun without me.

Between 1900 and 1996 (25 elections), the average margin of victory in popular vote has been TWELVE PERCENT. The average electoral college tally has been 402-119 (used to be fewer votes).

The last two elections are anomalies. Presidential elections, historically, are NOT usually close.

Why does everyone seem to assume that this one will be? As far as I'm concerned, there is no reason to expect less than a 6-7% popular vote victory, which will translate into an EC landslide - something between 350 and 390 for Obama.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Lioness:

Pay attention to GlassHalfFull. Do what you said you will do. Be scared and nervous. I don't blame you. But take solace that this thing IS over. The only question is the size of the victory for Obama/Biden and how many Democrats make it into Congress. Yes, the GOP has no shame; The Sow in Lipstick and her Erratic Consort are even worse. But buy yourself a couple of bottles of wine and have a celebratory drink for me next Tuesday night.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

I hate to school you all again but all this talk of the state polls is so, so irrelevant. Why? Because state polls always shake down from national numbers. They just take a few days to show up that way.

If McCain reduces the difference nationally to 3% or less, this election is absolutely going to be a nail-biter. He is now at a 7.3 average on RCP but that will go down to the 6's tomorrow as some of the outliers on the high side fall off the timetable. He will likely hit the 5's by Wednesday.

That means McCain has to move everything down two points in five days. It's doable.

The trends are completely going his way: every poll is tightening nationally.

I'm not whistling past the graveyard. I'm just trying to help some of you who are buying your party hats to hold off on the expenditure. Remember: Wednesday in the 5's. And then watch the Intrades start to wobble.

____________________

bmrKY:

"MaxMBJ:
I hate to school you all again but all this talk of the state polls is so, so irrelevant. Why? Because state polls always shake down from national numbers. They just take a few days to show up that way."

And I hate to school you again, dumbass, but Obama is remaining steady in the trackers and the national polls. The only change has been McCains numbers increasing in several of the trackers; Obamas numbers are staying consistently at or above 50%. And national polls are NOT always an indicator of state polls. The neocon hero of the week, Zogby, has the national race about as close as any other tracker, yet his state polls from the same time period show Obama leading comfortably enough in enough swing states to win the election. Personally, I think all of Zogby's polls are crap (national and state; even though he is showing my guy ahead, I still think that he is a terrible pollster and I've said this for months), but he's apparently the new savior of the right wing neocons (along with Palin and Drudge) so if his polls show it, it must be true.

Again, Obama WILL NOT win all of the current red states that are battlegrounds. But the thing is, he doesn't HAVE TO win all of those states. He just needs the 264 he has locked in right now, and then just take ONE of the MANY red states up for grabs. McCain MUST win EVERY SINGLE "YELLOW" STATE that Pollster is showing right now (with Obama leading in 4 out of those 8), PLUS take Ohio, Virgina, AND Colorado which Pollster currently has shaded either light blue (Ohio and Colorado) or dark blue (Virginia). Just because McCain starts gaining a point or two and Obama stays right where he is doesn't mean that those states automatically flip back to McCain. It's not that simple, and it's foolish to think that "just because it's happened in the past, it will happen again." Nothing about this race is like anything that has happened in the past. And you neocon right wingers have STILL NOT explained to me or anyone else on here with a functioning brain how, exactly, Saint McMaverick and the MILF win the election in the electoral college. All you say is "the polls will tighten." In an attempt to go all Katie Couric up in here, I'm asking you neoconservatives, SPECIFICALLY, how does John McCain win in the electoral college? Honestly, I want to read your theories. Does he spend the week trying to make up a 7 or 8 point disadvantage in Virginia? That just leaves the other swing states ripe for Obama to pick off. Does he stay on the east coast, trying to keep Ohio, Florida, Virginia, NC, and hope Colorado, Nevada and one of the Dakota's doesn't flip? Does he give up Virginia and Colorado, spend all of his time in Pennsylvania trying to flip it (yeah, good luck with that one...) and hope that Florida, Ohio and Nevada are locked in? He tried that strategy last week. The result is somewhere around a double digit deficit in PA, the same as it was last week. The right wing explanation on which of these "strategies" he employees (if any) and how he plans to win in the EC should be a classic, and I can't wait to see all the different explanations.

But go on, ignore Obama's ground game that is the most massive in modern political history. Please, continue to think that screaming insanely about socialism, William Ayers, and anti-American and pro-American states is a winning message for you, a message that America wants to hear, after 8 years of a failed neocon president whose policies McCain has adopted, yet now McCain is out there screaming about how much Bush sucks. What, you're just figuring that out NOW, John? Continue to believe whatever bit of desperate piece of hope that Zogby throws at you. Continue to ignore ALL of the sane conservatives that are jumping off the ship and over to Obama on what is seemingly a daily basis. Doing that will only cost your party the election, but please, keep the same failing message. It's doing wonders for the campaign and the image of your party.

____________________

bmrKY:

"Boris_Dieter:
Ladies and Gentlemen:

Yes there will be tightening. But so long as Obama stays above 50% nationally, it means nothing."

EXACTLY!

____________________

boomshak:

DID MCCAIN ACTUALLY POLL AHEAD OF OBAMA ON RASMUSSEN SUNDAY?

Prior to Sunday, Obama had the following +7, +8, +8. Ok, with Sunday's poll, that +7 rolled off.

Now what would the poll have had to be to get an average of O+5 after two days at O+8? This is VERY rough math, but generally speaking, it seems like it would have had to be McCain +1!

8+8+? / 3 = 5, wouldn't "x" have to be -1?

We'll see what Rasmussen shows today. But to move 3 points in one day on a 3 day tracking poll, especially when that move is a complete change of direction, one candidate has to have a VERY VERY good day.

It is quite rare for Rasmussen to move more than 1-2 points in a single day. As a matter of fact, the last time Rasmussen moved 3 points in one day was 09/05/2008 and McCain tied the race a day later after being down by 5.

P.S., It would be really helpful if these tracking polls would show us their actually single day numbers along with the averages. I have no idea why they keep this a secret.

____________________

boomshak:

@bmrKY:

So, before it was going to be an Obama wipeout and now he just needs to stay above 50%? You are aware that this polling business is an inexact science right?

It has been a challenge to get right in the past and almost impossible to get right this year. You have:

1. Cell phones to account for.
2. People that don't asnwer calls from unknown persons (pollsters),
3. People that hang up on pollsters,
4. Unknown enthusiasm gaps,
5. Unknown party affiliations,
6. Wacky internals

...the list goes on and on.

One things polls do tend to show is momentum and that has been all Mccain the past 3 days. Polls that were strong double-digits for Obama are now 3 and 4 point races. Even your precious DailyKos with their stupid sample had The One under 50% yesterday after being as high as 54% or so earlier.

OBAMA ON DEFENSE:
Could Obama have guessed that he would spend the entire last week before the election defending charges that he is a Marxist (which he is)?

____________________

sotonightthatimightsee:

Overall great news for MACCAIN!!

Every poll is within the margin of error. If independents and traditional voters tilt to McCain..Obama's money will be nothing but a waste!!

MACCAIN/PALIN '08

____________________

zvelf:

@Boomshak

Aren't you the one who fails polls for gigantic swings? If there were a 9-point one-day swing for McCain, wouldn't that suggest to you that that is a huge outlier? The RCP national poll average today favors Obama by 6.2 points. McCain's not going to swing the race 6 points in one week without some outside catastrophic event.

____________________

TheLioness:

@boomshak:

OBAMA ON DEFENSE:
Could Obama have guessed that he would spend the entire last week before the election defending charges that he is a Marxist (which he is)?

You know, I used to find you just kind of amusingly obnoxious, then I began to realize that you're the kind of person who would fix an election if you could ...but you know I'm aaaalllll okay now, because it's become patently obvious from this last statement that you're just, well, stupid. Stupid combined with immoral cunning, fear mongering and divisiveness won twice in the last two elections, people now see where it's gotten us. They won't let people like you devide and destroy this wonderful country of ours any longer.

Ignorant I can deal with, education will help you. Even life-long ingraned prejudices can be winkled out and dealt with over time. We all have them and should confront and deal with them. But stupid is forever. Boomshak, forever stupid. Now I get to just feel sorry for you. Isn't that nice?


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