Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

Re: The Indelicate Question

Topics: 2008 , The 2008 Race

Would a McCain withdrawal favor Rudy Giuliani? Gallup's Frank Newport crunches the numbers on recent national Gallup polls on the Republican presidential nomination and confirms the findings from the Cook/RT Strategies polls that I blogged earlier this week:

To answer this question, we aggregated the last three Gallup polls in which the Republican trial heat was included - conducted June 1-3, June 11-14, and July 6-8. Across those three polls McCain's percent of the vote averaged 18%. In each poll, we ask voters to name their second choice. So for this analysis, we removed McCain's votes, and reallocated his voters' choices to their second choice candidates.

The results? Rudy Giuliani picks up the most of McCain's votes, going from a 30% share of Republican choices with McCain on the ballot to 38% with McCain removed.

Fred Thompson moves from 16% to 18%. Mitt Romney goes from 9% to 11%. Newt Gingrich gains a point, from 7% to 8%. Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson and Mike Huckabee all gain a point, but remain at 3% or less of the vote.

 

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR