Pollster.com

Good news for FL by a VERY R leaning organization.

Karl Rove is calling it 338 for Obama. Am I dreaming?

The FL and OH numbers are all up from mid-October (FL+5, OH+2) when most of the other polls have Obama by low-to-mid single digits.

When you walk in to the voting booth tommorrow, think about the last 8 years of record setting jobs losses, record setting budget and trade deficits, and the endless war in Iraq that Obama will end, but McCain has no plan to end. Our country can't afford 8 more years of the disasterous policies of the Republicans.

McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end the war in Iraq. A Republican is a Republican. I don't trust McCain and Palin.

Barack Obama will invest money for science, for health care, for education, and to help the people here in our own country. Barack Obama and the Democrats will nominate Supreme Court Justices who will protect our 4th ammendment rights to privacy and all of our individual freedoms.

Let us not forget the election in 2000 when Bush won the election by a 5 to 4 vote in the U.S. Supreme Court. Barack Obama and Joe Biden need every vote that they can get. Tell your friends and family to vote for Barack Obama. Tell the entire block where you live to vote for Barack Obama and have a car pool to the voting booth. The Democrats need a win!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN ON NOVEMBER 4TH!

For all nervous nellies ... go to:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-113-pm-edition.html

Damn strategic vision.

Likely Voters and no internals? Hooray, I'm going to do my own poll of "Likely Voters"... All my friends are going to vote for Barack Obama. I can already see the toplines:

Vercordio Pollsters
10/31 - 11/2/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews (and also Facebook)

National 450 LV
Obama 100, McCain 0

Sorry, I'm just stressing about the Ohio numbers.

Sleep well tonight my friends, for Karl Rove has called the race for Obama.

http://www.rove.com/election

Keep in mind people, you think Karl Rove would call it if he thought the "internals" of McCain were real?:) Keep that thought. Night!

I'm feelin' good about Ohio. The only pollster's showing McCain up have a big R lean and were OFF in '04.

RCP Average 10/27 - 11/02 -- -- 49.0 45.8 Obama +3.2

FOX News/Rasmussen 11/02 - 11/02 1000 LV 3.0 49 49 Tie
SurveyUSA 10/30 - 11/02 660 LV 3.9 48 46 Obama +2
Strategic Vision (R) 10/31 - 11/02 1200 LV 3.0 46 48 McCain +2
PPP (D) 10/31 - 11/02 1208 LV 2.8 50 48 Obama +2
Reuters/Zogby 10/30 - 11/02 605 LV 4.1 50 44 Obama +6
Univ of Cinci/Ohio Poll 10/29 - 11/02 1221 LV 2.7 52 46 Obama +6
Quinnipiac 10/27 - 11/02 1574 LV 2.5 50 43 Obama +7
Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 45 47 McCain +2
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/27 648 LV 3.9 49 45 Obama +4
Columbus Dispatch* 10/22 - 10/31 2164 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 49 45 Obama +4
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/25 - 10/27 644 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 779 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 404 RV 4.9 48 41 Obama +7
Marist 10/24 - 10/26 661 LV 4.0 48 45 Obama +3
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 10/22 - 10/26 1425 LV 2.6 51 42 Obama +9
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 607 LV 4.0 48 41 Obama +7
PPP (D) 10/21 - 10/23 993 LV 3.1 51 44 Obama +7
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 408 LV 5.0 52 42 Obama +10

Really remarkable from Rove. A bigger margin than a lot of Dems are predicting.

Are we done yet with the polls?

@lhtk

There are probably a little bit more coming but who cares. only hours away from the real thing.

Obama 53/46 368 EV's

@Pro-America_Anti-America

I just want to think I can walk away from all of this without worrying that there might be some poll I need to look at. I want to go home and basically hide my head in the sand until 3 p.m. PST tomorrow. :-)

I mostly agree with Rove's map but I say with the votes he's already banked Obama also takes North Carolina (15 EV) and Montana (3 EV) for a total of 356. Popular vote Obama 53, McCain 45, Nader 1, Barr 1.

@Everyone

Regardless of who you support, please go to
http://www.freedomswatch.org/component/option,com_contact/Itemid,228/contact_id,6/task,view/
everyday and demand a public apology from Mr Blakeman for criticizing Obama for visiting his dying grandmother, and please don't stop until we see an apology. Also, please be civil. Thank you.

I am spending the day convincing voter to vote NO on 8....one more battle to make my election day complete.

@laguna

me too. I'm getting ALL my college friends to hit the polls...NO on 8.

Tomorrow, i will be all over little haiti,taking all my senior haitians to the poll with my a shuttle bus-- i am telling you, Obama will win Florida

Obama 08

@Kerrchdavis

Get them to volunteer! http://www.noonprop8.com/action/gotv
We have california locked up for Obama now we need the details as well!

Hi all-

I wasn't around a lot the last week or so, but with the election tomorrow, I just wanted to take a minute and thank everyone for the conversation and wish everyone the best. Everyone of both parties get out and vote please. Here's to the next four (much-improved) years.

Yes I think Proposition 8 is probably the most important question on any ballot this year. If Gay marriage stands up in California after a vote by the people, then that definately opens the door for marriage equality throughout the country. I live in Arkansas, so I can't vote against, but please everyone, NO on 8.

THE REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO STEAL THIS ELECTION AGAIN AND WE'RE NOT GONNA A DAMN THING ABOUT IT BECAUSE WE'RE ALL SHEEP.

What worries me is voter fraud -- purged voters, barriers to new voters that are not apparent until they show up at the polls, etc. Here's a piece by Greg Palast:

http://www.truthout.org/110308A

Palast can be hot and cold, but he's mainly on the money. I wrote a letter to MSNBC awhile back. RFK, Jr. was on there talking about the millions of voters already purged from rolls. He gave lots of specific examples of how it's done, mainly under the rules of the "Help America Vote" act, signed by Bush in 2002.

Of course, purged voters, and new voters who are suddenly facing new hurdles to registration are primarily minorities and young people. And the officials in charge always seem to be Republican.

RFK Jr. got to give his bit, but unlike every other guest, there was zero discussion except for Mika Brzezinski turning to someone and saying, "Do you buy this?" Then the conversation turned to Palin's clothing budget, which of course, continued for the next week.

Florida, New Mexico, Indiana and Colorado, to name but a few, are particularly suspect.

In Colorado, whose Democratic Governor and finally -- after a lawsuit -- its courts insisted that the state's Republican Secretary of State Mike Coffman restore 300,000 purged voters a few weeks ago, as of Friday still hadn't stopped purging voters, even though it is illegal to do so within 90 days of an election. Here's a story from Friday:

http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_10867035/ci_10866716

Just something to keep in mind.

I have many conservative friends, so I do not have anything against Republicans. But I have to say that Fox News is the most disgusting TV channel that I have ever seen. The same can be said of many others on the far right (such as Rush Limbaugh).

Today we received the sad news that Obama's grandmother had passed away (my condolences to Senator Obama). About a week ago senator Obama traveled to Hawaii to visit her very ill grandmother. Fox News tried to imply, at that time, that senator Obama was having "a vacation" and Rush Limbaugh even suggested that the real reason that Obama was in Hawaii was because he was trying to hide the truth about his birth certificate (many comments were posted here by some McCain sympathizers on that respect). At this moment I hope that all of those people that took that opportunity to spread smears about senator Obama feel very proud of themselves. If you have ever experienced the loss of a close relative, you must know the pain associated with such event.

Unfortunately, Madelyn Dunham was never to see her adored grandson elected President of the United States.

Today, on Fox News they tried to imply that there may be a terrorist attack on the US (after the election), to test the next elected President. Their purpose, to create an atmosphere of fear in absence of an "Al Queda announcement" (as in 2004).

Tomorrow, if you have not already voted, go out and vote for change. Vote against the politics of fear and division. If you have already voted, encourage others to vote.

Thanks. God bless the United States of America.

Here's an interesting article on undecideds.

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/03/how-will-the-last-holdouts-break/#more-2236

I have every confidence that the Obama campaign has done all that it could to win this election, and that many of these close states will not, in fact, be close tomorrow night. Obama supporters need to take a nice deep breath and make sure you vote tomorrow.

Geez.. CNN, MSNBC, it's all right-wing, all Republican senators, all anti-Obama all the time. They desperately want this to be close.

Did you guys read this about the ARMY of Obama GOTV squads in Georgia. WOW!

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/11/03/obama-campaign-eyes-upset-georgia-win/

I'm turning off the internet, going home, and watch a little TV before going to bed. Tomorrow I am taking the day off from work VOTING, and then I'll watch MSNBC call state after state for Obama. Beer is on the breakfast menu, just after I submit the ballot.
Take care you all.
Yes we can!

Actually, I take this is GOOD news...specifically for Florida & OH. Why?

Well, this is a heavy R leaning pollster. Reasonably, their OH number is at LEAST 4 points off (and that's being generous to McCain). If their polling error is similar for FL and GA..then that means Obama is ahead by +6 in FL, and is TIED in Georgia!!!

And the real Lou Dobbs shows up. Screaming about Obama's Aunt, railing about the "liberal media." Asking why the liberal media is going after Joe the Plumber. And Matthews is letting thesr right wingers spew blather. Thank God Keith comes on in 10 mins.. jeez.

I want this to be over :-)

Does anyone know if the public will be able to see the exit polls from the states when they are released? I dont remember if we got to see them in the primaries or not. Do you think the go over at 538.com will have them?

My four year old son -- who loves to pretend he's a dinosaur, or dragon, or superhero -- walked up to me this evening and shyly said "daddy, I'm Barack Obama."

I'm of Aryan descent. I was so proud I almost cried.

Please vote tomorrow.

Wes,

Exit polls stink. Just count the votes, please.

Nate Silver said as much himself. He's part of the coverage, anyway. That said, I don't know what 538 will do.

Trosen

Matthews always lets right wingers talk over others, despite his later protestations. He couldn't moderate a bridge game.

regarding ohio, the university of cincinnati has the best record of in-state polling. and they put obama's lead at 6%. i'll be less of a nervous nellie once pa and va are in the bag, assuming the blue northeast/midwest states don't hiccup a mccain surprise. its also comforting to know that colorado, new mexico, and nevada might be the backstops to unexpected mccain victories east of the mississippi. sweet dreams to all of you from the blue shores of the pacific. ca, wa, or, and hi are with you.

Don't put it past Karl Rove to be creating a little confusion in the hopes that Obama voters will stay home. That would be just like him, wouldn't it? Any Obama supporter preening about a blow-out is hurting his own cause.

Karl Rove is now a political commentator. Ala... James Carville. For him to cater to McCain with some BS numbers would hurt his credibility going forward. So his numbers ae most likey pretty real.

538 is going to ignore exit polls, IIRC, because they're so inaccurate due to sample bias.

Please.. if we learned anything in 2004.. ignore the f-ing exit polls.

TJIRISH34:
"Karl Rove is now a political commentator. Ala... James Carville. For him to cater to McCain with some BS numbers would hurt his credibility going forward. So his numbers ae most likey pretty real."

Well not just that.. but his projection is more or less what everyone else is projecting.. So he's not exactly throwing out something unusual.

Since this may be one of the last times this site gets mega hits, I'd like to remind everybody that Oregon has figured out how to vote efficiently by mail. Please look into this for yourselves.

Long lines to vote are just plain wrong. Do you want the future of the country to rest on what kind of weather happens around the country on Nov. 4? It's so stupid.

You can still walk your vote in on the 4th, which should be a holiday anyway.

@Trosen:
"Karl Rove is now a political commentator. Ala... James Carville. For him to cater to McCain with some BS numbers would hurt his credibility going forward. So his numbers ae most likey pretty real."

Well not just that.. but his projection is more or less what everyone else is projecting.. So he's not exactly throwing out something unusual.

Well, OK, but I still hope Ed Rollins is Yoda.

Prof. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball projection is here:

Obama 364 McCain 174

"If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota.

If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that John McCain will carry a couple of the following states: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio.

The Crystal Ball expects Barack Obama to run closer to the maximum than to the minimum in the popular vote tally."

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008110301

Man are they beating that new Jeremiah Wright ad to death. Seen it about 5 times in the past 30 mins.

A little late, but nice. I'm always saying Obama Tsunami!

http://www.taftographics.com

The McCain campaign and McCain were just trashed by Bill Ofactor.

@Trosen,

I have my TV on to give K.O. ratings; however, I turned down the volume, mute. I don't want to watch that disgusting ad with Rev. Wrigt. I'll be glad once the election is over, no more Rev. Wrigt for goodness sake :-(

I'm a precinct officer in the election.
I just found out my boss is an evangelical that thinks Obama is the antichrist!

Oh Gawd! What did I get myself into?

yea, thought i was the alone one, there playing the Wright ad every 15mins.i'm sick of it, i hope for a backlash!

@zotz,

Didn't you know that he was that crazy?

@zotz

Just make sure he doesn't pull anything fishy.

zotz!

checks and balances

fed:
"The McCain campaign and McCain were just trashed by Bill Ofactor."

Kudos to you for being able to stomach that. Is he still ranting that the Obama Campaign is bribing the Nielsen ratings causing him to slip behind MSNBC?

I've got "A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall" in my head. Has Dylan endorsed anybody? Ever?

No, He practically argued that McCain will lose the election because he did not go to his show. LOLOLOLOL

Now, it comes all down to this:

Obama has a huge lead in the national polls (I believe that Gallup is right on the mark with their 55%-44% estimate), a significantly higher level of enthusiasm among his supporters and a much better ground game than McCain. Massive early voting by Democrats must also be taken into account.

So, in my opinion, it is highly probable that every single state that is now considered a "toss-up", with less than about 2% between the candidates in the state polls averages, will finally go for Obama. This includes North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri. Furthermore, the massive early voting turnout in Georgia seems to disproportionately benefit Obama there as well.

**********************************************

So, my final electoral college estimate is as follows:

Barack Obama: 375 or 390 (with or without Georgia)
John McCain: 163 or 148

If Obama has an even better evening, Arizona, Montana and North Dakota might also end up in his column, pushing his EV total above 400 EV.

**********************************************

From Steve Lombardo, the Republican pollster/strategist:

The LCG regression vote model projects that Obama will win by six percentage points tomorrow. We project the following popular vote distribution:

Obama 52.5%
McCain 46.5%
Other 1.0%

We project that Obama will decisively win the electoral vote:

Obama 311 EVs
McCain 227 EVs

-----------------------------------------

The Electoral college thing I really don't know how it is going to work out; however, I totally agree on the popular vote. My bet is Obama between 52% to 54% and McCain between 45% to 47%. Ah...I don't believe that McCain can win PA. It will be Obama 52% or 53% and McCain 46% or 47% :-)

@carl29:

The fact of the matter is that Barack Obama's actual support tomorrow is most likely UNDER-, not overestimated in the polls, due to the enthusiasm gap between the two camps (in favor of Obama), the strong ground game of the Obama campaign and the fact that many polls don't include cellphone-only voters in their samples.

So, expect him to fare better tomorrow than your numbers indicate.

@zotz

You are protecting the fairness of the election. Best of luck.

I think the Obama support is somewhat overstated. Enough to turn the election, who knows?

Two reasons.

Dem bias in polls. ABC/WP, CBS/Times and Time magazine have been in the tank for the Dems for a generation. They should get a (D) by their names. If they are wrong and Hotline and Tipp are right, who knows how this will turn out.

PUMA. Dems that will stay home or cross over and vote for McCain. Coupled with the first item, and we are moving to a dead heat.

Bigmike:

Do you have any facts to back up your "reasons"?

"PUMA. Dems that will stay home or cross over and vote for McCain. Coupled with the first item, and we are moving to a dead heat."

But PUMA Dems declared to pollsters that they supported McCain. They are the ones that consisted of the 7-10% of Democrats that McCain received in the polls. I doubt that they would ever consider declaring support for Obama, so they are being recorded as for McCain.

I do suspect you are right though in this regard. Many will stay home. That way they don't support Obama and yet they don't support McCain.

Thus Obama's lead actually increases.