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StrategicVision: MI, NH, PA (10/27-29)

Topics: PHome

Strategic Vision (R)
10/27-29/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Michigan 1,200 LV, 3%
Obama 54, McCain 41
Sen: Levin (D-i) 56, Hoogendyk (R) 33

New Hampshire 800 LV, 3.5%
Obama 50, McCain 41
Sen: Shaheen (D) 48, Sununu (R-i) 41
Gov: Lynch (D-i) 67, Kenney (R) 24

Pennsylvania 1,200 LV, 3%
Obama 49, McCain 44

 

Comments
Trosen:

I think polls like these are the best McCain will show in PA.. within 4 or 5. And no crosstabs on Party ID. But the one question that stuck out was "which candidate do you think would better handle the economy?" Obama only lead by 5. Horsecrap. It's at least +20 across the board, including in PA.

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jamesia:

Well, it's a Republican pollster, so of course these are McCain's best numbers. If Strategic Vision gives Obama these kinds of leads, then these three states are definitely in Obama's category.

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djneedle83:

McCain is spending all of his time in T-Section (Alabama) of the key-stone state. Let's face it, the MCcain campaign will have to be gracious losers. Let's hope that McCain addresses his supporters at their final rally in Arizona.

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The_Huntsman:

NH is a done deal. And if McCain's best in PA is +5, then that is probably a done deal also.

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durek:

One would think that at this point in the game, pollsters would want the most accurate poll they could create. Why then do these polls not include all third party candidates? I am quite frustrated by this over these last two weeks. The poll should reflect what is on the ballot, period.

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jeric:

Interestingly their McCain number is in line with other pollsters, but they have a tighter spread because the Obama number is lower than average. My guess is that the best McCain can hope for is 43-44%, which gives Obama about 10% margin in PA.

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masselo:

wowwwwwwwwwwwwwww --things arent looking to good for Obama in PA... I hopes he goes there instead of AZ-- goshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

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bmcfar01:

"the McCain campaign will have to be gracious losers..."


What kind of losers will the Obama campaign and supporters be if there is an upset on election night?

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hou04:

Early voting update for GEORGIA:

Total votes 1,737,139 (that is 53%of all votes cast in 2004)

African-Americans still holding at 35% of votes cast

GEORGIA turning BLUE?!
-------

Early voting update for NORTH CAROLINA

2,078,050 total voted (that is 58.5% of all votes cast in 2004)

African-Americans holding 26.6% of votes cast(well above projected 19-20%)

NORTH CAROLINA turning BLUE?!

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masselo:

Things arent looking to good for Obama in PA - i hope he goes there instead of waisting time in Arizona -

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RaleighNC:

Sorry, hou04...

The black turnout in NC peaked last week. Sorry. That percentage will decrease. Nice try, though.

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jeric:

Polls from this week-

CNN/Time:
AZ: McCain +7
PA: Obama +12

NBC/Mason-Dixon:
AZ: McCain +4
PA: Obama +4

Rasmussen
AZ: McCain +5
PA: Obama +7

Who's wasting time where now?

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JCK:

hou04

RaleighNC is right, and PPP (a dem leaning pollster) agrees. They are expecting 20-22% AA turnout.

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Isher:

Masselo he's going to win both.

In fact he could lose PA and take Arizona and win.

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bmrKY:

@masselo

Two conservative pollsters have Obama up 4 and 5 points in Pennsylvania, respectfully. These are McCain's high water marks for the state, and he didn't break 45% in either one. Every other PA poll this week, even Ras, had Obama up by high single digits or low double digits. Obama will probably end up winning PA by 7 or 8 points. The Obama GOTV is rock solid in PA from all accounts that I've read, and should carry him to a comfortable victory. They just need to make sure that all of the PA dems get out and vote. If they do, then that is a margin McCain cannot overcome even with strong independent support. I am cautiously optimistic and I'm not going to get my hopes up too soon. There's still a lot of work left to be done.

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Kane:

{bmcfar01:
"the McCain campaign will have to be gracious losers..."


What kind of losers will the Obama campaign and supporters be if there is an upset on election night?}

If the polls remain as they are right now, and the election goes for McCain, I shudder to think what will happen in this country. I think there will be nothing anyone can say that will stop people from believing the election was stolen, and I predict there will be violent rioting.

If the polls tighten or McCain polls ahead, I doubt there will be anything of the sort.

Of course, I don't believe there will be any upset. Once the Virginia numbers come in for Obama, it will be an early night.

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bmcfar01:

Kane,
I agree 100%. I too shudder to think what will happen on Wednesday morning if Obama loses in a tight race. Chances are slim that he'll lose, but it's been a crazy two-years of primaries and polling and there is still the "what ifs" out there...

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Bryce:

This is a year where NOTHING by either candidate should be taken for granted. The key for Obama remains to hold CO, NH, NM, and now apparently PA, while McCain needs to sweep the big prize states (FL, VA, OH, IN, MO, NC) and poach one of the aforementioned four from Obama for a chance.

I personally think there's going to be a few surprises on both sides, and that the final electoral count is going to be closer than what the polls are currently reflecting, but my gut feeling is that McCain has too much of an uphill battle ahead of him.

But nothing is over until it's over.

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Mike A.:

it's a R pollster btw ;)

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Zeidan:

Hmmm... that PA poll definitely stands out.

I still look at CNN's poll of polls coz it averages only the most concise polls, and that stands at around 11 points today. But I'll watch to see how it turns out. I mean if McCain's putting all his resources into this state it's bound to move at some degree.

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Dewey1858:

"They just need to make sure that all of the PA dems get out and vote. If they do, then that is a margin McCain cannot overcome even with strong independent support."

McCain is actually not counting so much on independents as on socially conservative rural Dems dissapointed by Clinton's failure to win the nomination. At least that's how they're playing to.
The keys are the "collar counties" around Philly - Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and Chester - and the area surrounding Pittsburgh. There have been large statewide increases in Democratic registrations recently (many of them unlikely McCain voters), but the key will be getting those folks to the polls, in Philly/Pittsburgh, and elsewhere.

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Saxa:

@JCK
I agree the AA turnout peaked, but I can't believe it will go down to the 21% of the previous election (or even the 22% that PPP thinks). It has decreased only .4% in the last 4 days.

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whitetower:

@bmcfar01:
What kind of losers will the Obama campaign and supporters be if there is an upset on election night?

You'll see the biggest bunch of crybabies you'll ever see in your life talk about how it was "scientifically impossible" that Obama lost so therefore that the election must have been "stolen" or that large numbers of Americans must be "racist."

I'm pretty much a libertarian so I don't care too much who wins -- but I sure don't see a such a massive sense of an entitlement to win among McCain supporters as I do among Obama supporters.

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Nor Cal Train:

I am an Obama supporter from California and have to agree with some of the people on here for different reasons. I hope he makes one more swing to PA before the election. All polls up until this week were double digit leads and now they are contracting. Gov Rendell has warned of this himself. Obama needs those 21 EV's or all the new small states will be t hold ground and NOT for claiming a mandate.

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Okay, here is a breath of fresh air for any Obama supporters kinda nervous like me about PA.

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Dewey1858:

"Okay, here is a breath of fresh air for any Obama supporters kinda nervous like me about PA."

You mean the tracker that's down three points from yesterday?


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zen:

Morning call (daily PA poll)
has been constantly double digit lead for Obamam for more than 10 days. It was 13 yesterday (54:41) and other polls are all double digit or high single digit.

I don't buy this poll.
What i'm interested in the poll these days is not the gap, but what percent obama gets.
He gets 52-54 in most of the PA polls these days.
I guess most of undecides will go to Maccain on election day. So, my prediction is Obama 53, maccain 46, for others, 1

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BridgeportJoe:

The problem for McCain in Pennsylvania is the same one that Gore faced in Florida and Kerry faced in Ohio -- he's going to have to convince a ton of voters who normally vote Democratic to vote Republican in this election. Maybe he can. But it's very difficult to do in in four days, especially when your opponent is a charismatic and well-liked candidate who receives generally laudatory press coverage.

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radmod:

@whitetower

Truth to tell, at this point it is pretty much scientifically impossible for Obama to lose unless the election is rigged or people are being racist.

I wouldn't blame Obama supporters for being pissed off he does.

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douglasdao:

Strategic Vision is +@ GOP and always has been in their polling bias:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings.

The fact that SV says Dems are winning in those polls is huge and the margins are even higher than SV's numbers.

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douglasdao:

+2 sorry

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Kevin Hayden:

Funny, if you compare the numbers for the same pollster, the only movement you see is in additional McCain voters. For example:

Rasmussen:10/27 53-46 Obama
10/6 54-41 Obama

The outlier is (no surprise) the Republics pollster:

Strategic vision: 10/27-29 49-44 Obama
10/20-22 50-43 Obama
10/5-7 54-40 Obama

But I am not counting on this. I'm in Florida and on my way out to knock on more doors. Do the same...

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Tzal:

Does anyone know the partisan ID for these polls?

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It has come to this: The reliance on the base pollsters who are for John McCain and anything right-wing. If you can't make up ground in reality, switch to a surreal state of mind and "fake it until you make it."

For this election, Gallup, Rasmussen and the many conservative pollsters have really showed their willingness to release bias polls for McCain. While claiming they are true Americans, the Republicans are willing to put Sarah Palin a heart beat away from the most powerful office in our world. They do this knowing she is not ready to handle an office with so much influence and power.

Go Obama!

Joseph

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thorfinn:

Note that this poll ended more or less before the Infomercial. Let see the numbers for after, I am curious to see if he made any ground up.

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schwerve:

there's something very important people aren't realizing about the two PA polls out right now that show the race at about 5 points... neither show McCain gaining any ground but do show obama dropping off by ~5-7 points... hmm... so obama's poll number were depressed somehow... lets see... obama's base of support is in a city in eastern portion of the state... wasn't something big and distracting happening in that part of the state which might have depressed that area's response to polling... hmm... maybe...

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Basil:

schwerve

I'm liking it. Funny that something like a World Series could influence poll numbers that cause such ripples in the media and the campaigns.


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