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StrategicVision: NJ, WI (10/24-26)

Topics: PHome

Strategic Vision (R)
10/24-26/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

New Jersey 800 LV, 3%
Obama 53, McCain 38
Sen: Lautenberg (D-i) 49, Zimmer (R) 41

Wisconsin 800 LV, 3%
Obama 50, McCain 41

 

Comments
AdamSC:

Was reading Politico earlier, they have an Election Challenge thread in this format.


Popular Vote Percentages: Obama vs. McCain

Electoral College: Obama vs. McCain

Upset State:

House: Seat gains

Senate: Seat Gains

Upset Seat Gain:

My Election Prediction:

I'm using NBC's EV Map for my Default with Obama 286 vs. McCain 163. With additional BG state wins. My original prediction stands at 344(obama) vs. 194(mccain) but this scenario will include an upset win.

Popular Vote Percentages: Obama 53%; McCain 45%; Other 2%

Elecotral College: Obama 355; McCain 168

Upset: Indiana (Closest to Illnois and Obama is outspending McCain)

House: +22 Seats for Democrats D - 258 R - 177

Senate: +9 gain for Democrats, enough for majority.

Senate upset: Franken beats Coleman (Coleman same idiot who lost against Jesse Ventura)

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Thatcher:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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platanoman:

Mccain surge!!!

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IndyTurnBlue:

Who cares? Both BLUE and staying BLUE

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Dewey1858:

I heard McCain is going to campaign in Wisconsin without actually going back there by wearing one of those cheesehead hats to the remainder of his appearances.

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sunnymi:

@AdamSC, you said "Senate upset: Franken beats Coleman (Coleman same idiot who lost against Jesse Ventura)"

This one is already in the books..the real upset will be if either Chambliss or McConnell lose their seats.

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rami:

Wow, that's a helluva surge

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The_Huntsman:

Republican pollster, no less. But it doesn't really matter -- McCain's not competing in either of these states anymore.

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AdamSC:

@Sunnymi

I don't know, people like Coleman down there from the reports I've been reading. Republican or not he's got a strong base in that state.

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Dewey1858:

@rami:
Wow, that's a helluva surge

I can't believe you liberals still won't admit that the surge is working!

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faithhopelove:

THE GROUND GAME IN SWING STATES


AZ:
3 Obama field offices
1 McCain field office

CO:
50 Obama field offices
12 McCain field offices

FL:
58 Obama field offices
75 McCain field offices

GA:
7 Obama field offices
0 McCain field offices

IN:
42 Obama field offices
1 McCain field office

IA:
50 Obama field offices
16 McCain field offices

MO:
42 Obama field offices
16 field offices

NV:
15 Obama field offices
12 McCain field offices

NH:
19 Obama field offices
13 McCain field offices

NM:
38 Obama field offices
15 McCain field offices

NC:
50 Obama field offices
35 McCain field offices

OH:
81 Obama field offices
62 McCain field offices

PA:
78 Obama field offices
37 McCain field offices

VA:
72 Obama field offices
22 McCain field offices

WV:
21 Obama field offices
1 McCain field office

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NorseSoccer:

Dude, Franken does not have it in the bag at all.

I am very nervous that I will have to put up with 6 more years of Slick Normy. Ugh.

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AdamSC:

@Faith

Hmmm. Interesting. So basically, from the ground representation McCain is making his stand in Florida and Ohio. Odd. He doesn't have a big enough ground game in Pennsylvania to turn it around.

Curious, where did you get those numbers?

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Mike_in_CA:

@AdamSC:

If Obama wins 53-45, you can bet he'll win more than 344 EV's. I predict that, if he wins by 8%, he will also win GA, MT, ND, IN, etc., for 396 Electoral Votes. However, it remains difficult for him to break 400 unless he picks up AZ or WV. Unlikely, but possible. All in the event that he wins by 8%.

My estimate is a more conservative 375 (he wins IN, but loses GA, ND, MT, etc), and a 52.5-46 spread.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

faithhopelove:

All that money..all those puppets working for him and he's still gonna lose lol.

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AdamSC:

@Mike

That's not exactly true, he can run up the popular votes in each of the states he doesn't win and still lose the EV for that state.

Good prediction but I'm afraid I have to disagree with you about Georgia. I can't for the life of me see that turning. I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if that is the case though.

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carl29:

See my friends, why I had to cut back my ads in WI? Although I am annoying everyone in the state with my robocalls, alerting about the "terrorist-socialist-rapist" Obama :-)

Isn't nice how well they are working?

BEFORE MY ROBOCALLS:

Strategic Vision (R) 09/26 - 09/28 800 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9

AFTER MY ROBOCALLS: Obama 50 McCain 41, Obama +9

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Daniel Gruhn:

*** (Big) Sky’s the limit? A new round of NBC/Mason-Dixon polls shows Obama leading by 11 points in New Hampshire (50%-39%), Obama and McCain tied in North Carolina (47%-47%), and McCain only up four in Montana (48%-44%). This Montana poll, in fact, comes just as we’ve learned that the Republican National Committee’s independent expenditure arm will begin advertising there tomorrow. That’s right, folks -- Montana is still in play, and the race there could even be closer than the poll suggests when 1) popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is at the top of the ticket; 2) Sen. Max Baucus (D) is cruising to re-election; and 3) the state GOP there is in a mess.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

The only way McCain could still win WI is give everyone there a free lifetime supply of Pabst Blue Ribbon.

____________________

*** (Big) Sky’s the limit? A new round of NBC/Mason-Dixon polls shows Obama leading by 11 points in New Hampshire (50%-39%), Obama and McCain tied in North Carolina (47%-47%), and McCain only up four in Montana (48%-44%). This Montana poll, in fact, comes just as we’ve learned that the Republican National Committee’s independent expenditure arm will begin advertising there tomorrow. That’s right, folks -- Montana is still in play, and the race there could even be closer than the poll suggests when 1) popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is at the top of the ticket; 2) Sen. Max Baucus (D) is cruising to re-election; and 3) the state GOP there is in a mess.

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NMMatt:

How much you want to bet we won't see a single Republican posting on Nov. 5?

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carl29:

See my friends why the RNC has to pick up the bill for me everywhere? See my friends?

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NMMatt:

How much you want to bet we won't see a single Republican posting on Nov. 5?

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Scott W:

I am going with 52.5-46.5-1.0... which is going to still lead to landslide.

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Chester:

anyone know when the NBC / WSJ poll is due out?

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BOOMFAIL:

Anyone willing to bet me that McSame loses by high doubles in WI?? This poll is full of hot air. Obama beat Hillary here by 17 points in the primary, where all the pre-election polls only showed him with about a 5 point lead. Obama will win BIG in WI, as well as the rest of the country.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

I wouldn't even be surprised if Alaska narrowed significantly with growing discomfort over Palin's performance on the national stage combined with the all-around negative effect of the Steven's guilty verdict. What's good for Beglich is good for Obama. I don't expect an O win there, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer than people would have thought (like AZ).

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Daniel Gruhn:

Why hasn't Pollster.com posted those M/D Polls in their Average? They should. It comes from First Read.

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faithhopelove:

EARLY VOTING NUMBERS


Colorado
Dem 38.6%
Rep 37.9%
No/Oth 23.5%

Florida
Dem 44.7%
Rep 40.0%
No/Oth 15.2%

Georgia
White 61.0%
Black 35.1%
Other/Unk 2.6%
Men 41.2%
Women 55.9%
Unk 1.6%

Iowa
Dem 49.4%
Rep 28.3%
No/Oth 22.3%

Louisiana
Dem 57.9%
Rep 29.4%
No/Oth 12.7%
White 62.9%
Black 34.3%
Other 2.8%
Men 44.0%
Women 55.9%

Maine
Dem 44.9%
Rep 28.7%
No/Oth 26.4%

Nevada
Clark Cnty
Dem 54.4%
Rep 29.1%
No/Oth 16.5%
Washoe Cnty
Dem 51.2%
Rep 32.9%
No/Oth 15.9%

New Mexico
Bernalillo Cnty
Dem 55.4%
Rep 32.2%
No/Oth 12.4%

North Carolina
Dem 54.6%
Rep 28.1%
None 17.3%
18-29 12.0%
30-44 20.3%
45-64 41.8%
65+ 25.8%
White 68.0%
Black 28.1%
Other 4.0%
Men 42.9%
Women 56.3%

See:
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

"New Mexico
Bernalillo Cnty
Dem 55.4%
Rep 32.2%
No/Oth 12.4% "

I'm pretty sure this is the most populated county in NM. Good sign.

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Trosen:

Wasn't there some troll on here last week saying NJ was abut to show McCain leading? I swear I read that, but soon after passed ut from laughing before I could recall who said it.

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Nhoj:

poll seems about right for Wisconsin only interesting thing is the NJ senate race and being as its a [R] pollster that might just be ahouse bias.

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kc_in_MN:

Coleman will probably win. This weekend, I ran into Obama volunteers who were planning to vote for Coleman, overheard plenty of calls where people were onboard for Obama, D-congressman, but planning to vote for Coleman. The Star Trib endorsed Coleman for senate, Obama for president.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

"Nevada
Clark Cnty
Dem 54.4%
Rep 29.1%
No/Oth 16.5%
Washoe Cnty
Dem 51.2%
Rep 32.9%
No/Oth 15.9% "

Same as NM, two most populous counties. The Washoe/Reno numbers are especially encouraging. McCain needs to be within single digits on early voting numbers to have a chance on election day, from my point of view.

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Kile Thomson:

McCain Surge Continues... !!!

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GoodRiddensW:

Too bad Lautenberg can't break 50%. But how about polling in states that actually show signs of fluctuating?

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faithhopelove:

AdamSC:

Both Obama's website and McCain's website list their respective offices.

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mysticlaker:

I am cross-posting this from someone at 538. It's for boom:

i just did some of my own analysis on the RCP poll situation. it shows O+7.2, but that's way misleading right now.

first, i reweighted the average by sample size. a 3000 person rasmussen poll should be worth 3 1000 person polls. next, i threw out the obviously crazy Pew Poll, which has O+15 when Obama is almost or more than ten points below that in every other poll. finally, i threw out the 5 days old Newsweek poll, and average the two gallup polls since they come from the same sample and should only be one poll.

the result is that the unweighted average (what RCP would report if they threw out the two bad polls) is O+5.4, and the weighted average is just O+4.7. it's getting realllllly close!

so let's dig deeper. Just yesterday the poll numbers showed O+7.6 assume a similar issue with throwing out a couple polls and you get down to maybe what, O+6.5 in what my adjustment should show? and most of these polls are 3 day averages...so, if you have two days of O+6.5, what does the third day need to be to bring the average down to O+4.7? after doing the math, its O+1

yes, O+1 could have been the average of yesterday's polling numbers if my assumptions of the world are right....and then there's the undecided lean to mccain which i truly believe.

things may not be over yet!

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boomshak:

OBAMA: A LIFELONG MARXIST:

And there's this, from his own memoirs...

Obama's affinity for Marxists began when he attended Occidental College in Los Angeles.

"To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully," the Democratic presidential candidate wrote in his memoir, "Dreams From My Father." "The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists."

Obama's interest in leftist politics continued after he transferred to Columbia University in New York. He lived on Manhattan's Upper East Side, venturing to the East Village for what he called "the socialist conferences I sometimes attended at Cooper Union."

Yep, Marxist.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Although in a state where 55-60% of people are going to vote for Obama, you don't need all of them to win a Senate race..especially with a strong Independent running as well. I'm surprised that Franken has the chance that he does right now.

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mago:

"People like Coleman"

Well, his base does like him, but I'd say Dems hate him with an unusual degree of passion, as a traitor to the party and an evil hypocrite with his greenscreen wife...just a repellant human being.

It's a tossup...

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cambridge blue:

Bad news on Gallup front. Prepare for Boomshak barrage.

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abraxaf:

SHOCKER! There are some Marxist professors at a small liberal arts college! This is absolutely unprecedented! A passage from a book that has been out for 13 years is surely going to sink Obama once and for all!

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boomshak:

HOLY ****!

Gallup goes to Obama +2 amongst LV's! This poll will shock the world!

It's not over - far from it.

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mysticlaker:

that must have been one hell of day that rolled off for Obama.

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AdamSC:

@boomshak

It doesn't stick. Someone can't be a Communist/Socialist/Marxist all at the same time.

You had a better chance trying to label him a terrorist.

And your starting to sound like Rush Limbaugh, I bet you are a splitting image of that foolish right-winged conspirator.

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Trosen:

cambridge blue:
"Bad news on Gallup front. Prepare for Boomshak barrage"

Haha.. right on cue cambridge. Only.. noise isn't "bad news." It's just noise. The real bad news is coming.. and it's for McCain, with the new state polls coming out later.

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ricbrig:

This poll will shock the world!

It only shocks you I think.

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thoughtful:

AdamSC

I don't want your life on this:

Well, i'll post it again 390+EVs
Definite Georgia the + is for MT which is either way a couple 1000 votes , I think WV too far away. Dems end up with 58 Senators not counting the renegade from CONN.

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boomshak:

I'm serious, I was hoping for a good day from Gallup for McCain, but even I didn't expect a 3 point move from O+5 to O+2!

There is no doubt that McCain polled ahead of Obama yesterday to get that number.

Man oh man.

"Redistribution of Wealth" is becoming "Redistribution of Votes"

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DTM:

Apparently Obama is also a Chicano. Who knew?

Oh, and yes it appears to be Gallup's turn as poll-of-the-day.

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orange24:

And there's this, from his own memoirs...

Cool -- Maybe he can put it in his Presidential Library.

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mandalorianarmy:

I think your definition of "shock the world" is a little bit different than most peoples.

It just looks like a really good day rolled off for Obama. One day jumps can just as easily be noise. You have to watch for multiple day trends.

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AdamSC:

Gallup:

(RV) Obama 50% McCain 43%

(LV) Expanded: Obama 51% McCain 44%

(LV) Old Traditional: 49% Obama McCain 47%


Of course, Boomshak will point out the old model for the LV voters.

BUT, like I have been stating for awhile now, Obama lead is at 6-7% currently. The (RV) and new (LV) model supports that.

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Thatcher:

@Jordan - San Marcos TX

http://www.thatcherwilliams.com/nmearlyvote.pdf

Here's some NM early vote hard numbers I have ... these aren't 100% up to date - but within a day or so.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Marxism the philosophy (which even some Conservatives ascribe to in viewing how the world works) and Marxism as politics are two very different things.

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abraxaf:

Boomshak, you do know the traditional likely voters model is completely meaningless? If you believe the turnout and partisan breakdown in 2008 is going to be even similar to what it was in 2004, you are beyond all hope.

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BOOMFAIL:

BREAKING NEWS!!! OMG!!! BREAKING NEWS!!!

How is a 7 point Expanded LV lead for Obama bad news? Using traditional LV models are not accurate this year, as 2008 is NOT 2004! Everyone knows that Gallup, and most other pollsters tighten on the weekends, as most hardworking Democrats enjoy the freetime that they get and are not sitting at home watching fox news waiting for the phone to ring. We see the surge and tightening every week, only to show a widening for Obama as the week goes on. This is like groundhog day, my friends.

Spin baby spin.....it won't matter!

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE

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boomshak:

Todays's Polls:

Rasmussen - O+5
GWU - O+3
Gallup - O+2
Zogby - O+4

Wow.

The most amazing part is that Mccain must have kicked Obama's ass Monday to knock 3 points off a tracking poll!

Yippee!

Race on!

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carl29:

I think that those Gallup numbers from today have to do with the "Skinhead" men from yesterday. Everyday that the talk is about race, people get scared. People don't want to be reminded about tensions between blacks and whites, and especially crazy white supremacist. If my "theory" about the skinhead news is right, the race should remain stable. So far I think is more about the racist news from yesterday. As soon as that is not the news, things should stay steady :-) We'll see kids!!!!

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

Isn't this exactly where we were 2 weeks ago with Gallup? Deja vu.

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mandalorianarmy:

Just let boom believe for a few days longer McCain can still win.

That way it will be more crushing when he loses.

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OGLiberal:

Gallup and their LVI model will be boom's favorite poll/pollster of the day. Of course, yesterday, he was all but calling the Gallup org insane for the numbers they produced in yesterday's polling.

LV expanded - Obama +7. That's the number that counts this year.

But as boom will note, that's a 3pt swing from yesterday.

Cancel the election! Hand it over to McCain-Palin. Obama can't win. He just can't!

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thoughtful:

statistical tie!

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AdamSC:

@Boomshak

Your creaming your pants little boy.

You want to throw PEW out the window, with his +16 lead among (LV)'s but on the sign of the first major tightening poll today, your soil your undergarments and give it all the credit in the world.

First you discredit the (LV) and now your on the wagon.

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orange24:

Seriously, I was hoping for a good day for Obama, but even I didn't expect a 14 point lead:

US: Obama 52, McCain 38 (Pew 10/23-26)

See, we can all pick the ones we like best. Incidentally, the last Pew poll before the 2004 election had Bush by 3. Boy, they were way off, huh?

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mysticlaker:

@carl

No, it's likely that a really large obama day rolled off (last friday), and replaced with more typical 50-43 days...49-44, etc. You can see this with the RV numbers (which didn't change that dramtically).

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zotz:

A note of interest is the 2004 election results.

Wisconsin Bush 49% Kerry 50%

New Jersey Bush 46% Kerry 53%

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NW Patrick:

I wonder why Rasmussen doesn't use '04 voting stats? ROFL

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mandalorianarmy:

Notice that Boom doesn't use even consider the other Gallup models or the Pew poll in his little round up.

RCP average spread is 6.8%, that is a blowout the likes of Bush I vs. Dukakis.

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jeepdad:

As an Obama supporter, I'm not going to pretend these tracker polls aren't tightening somewhat. They are. Thankfully the state polls tell the more accurate story.

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AdamSC:

@Everyone

Boomshak can't hold his arguments, he just keeps randomly posting his partisan arguments and whacky Palin-like idiocy.

So no use trying to argue a point with him, he'll just ignore you because your right.

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saywhat90:

unless this chnages the electorate it means nothing. remember you can win nationally and still lose the election. if the states arent tightening then mccain has made no gains.

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Chester:

@ Gallup poll,

GOOD! A little fear is healthy. The MSM will plaster this "tighening" all over the evening news, Obama volunteers will lose some sleep tonight, and tomorrow they will be hitting the sidewalks twice as hard as they did yesterday!

A tight race is a get out the vote gift!

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

@Thatcher

Thanks...interesting stuff. McCain only winning the EV in a few rural counties close to super-Republican NW Texas. He's got a lot of ground to make up on Election day...probably won't happen if over 100,000 people have already voted in Albuquerque.

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Dan:

SHOCK THE WORLD!

lol

silly boom.

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boomshak:

Gallup's "expanded model" is nonsensical. I gives zero weight to prior voting behavior and assumes a 66% turnout (highly unlikely).

What's weird is that although this is now a statistical tie amongst LV's, gallup makes no big deal of that at all and just refers to this as a "slight narrowing" of Obama's lead.

AS I PREDICTED:
Gallup always telegraphs their big changes. Yesterday, gallup said that although Obama was ahead, McCain could come back and win and here we go.

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OGLiberal:

Todays's Polls:

Rasmussen - O+5
Gallup - O+7
Pew - O+15
Hotline - O+8

Wow.

The most amazing part is that Obama must have had a great Monday to stay steady in Rasmussen and Hotline and score a huge advantage in Pew.

Yippee!

Race over!

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faithhopelove:

SWING STATE NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS


CO
O: 13
M: 4

FL
O: 12
M: 4

GA
O: 3
M: 0

IN
O: 5
M: 0

IA:
O: 6
M: 3

ME
O: 3
M: 1

MN
O: 2
M: 2

MO
O: 3
M: 0

MT
O: 1
M: 0

NV
O: 2
M: 2

NH
O: 5
M: 3

NM
O: 3
M: 1

NC
O: 8
M: 0

ND
O: 0
M: 1

OH
O: 11
M: 6

PA
O: 16
M: 5

VA
O: 4
M: 10

WV
O: 3
M: 1

WI
O: 7
M: 3

See:
http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230

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carl29:

mysticlaker,

I understand that these numbers have: Saturday, Sunday, Monday. We already know that Saturday and Sunday are days when only old and boring people are able for pollsters. However, as I said yesterday, the skinhead plot was not good news for Barack because everyday that the talk in town is about race and possible chaos, people get scared. I hope that as soon as the plot is not longer on the news the typical pattern will hold. Let's see, I could be wrong but let's see :-)

*Remember that tomorrow is Barack 30-minute ad, so that should change the conversation back to the issues and away from the skinheads.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I think Rasmussen comes out with Nevada results today. Should be fun!

____________________

cinnamonape:

At least the Moonies are sticking with McCain and Ms. Messiah

http://washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/28/for-president/

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AdamSC:

(Boom-Like Impression)

ZOMG GUYS... W O W.

I was expecting a good Obama day but he must have really spanked John McCain this weekend.

Polls Today:

PEW +16
Diaego/Hotline +8
Gallup +7
ABC/Wash Post +7

Man, this is really turning into a landslide. I wonder if John McCain can even win Arizona at this rate.

Omg, omg, omg. YAAAAY! Yipeeee! WOO HOO

Race closed, baby. LANDSLIDE ALERT

____________________

Northeastern Republican:

hm. 3 points in the gallup, weve seen that before. is interesting though that gallup seems to be narrowing behind rasmussen and zogby. i know im sure these are all terrible polls. but for arguments sake, if u discount the pew and take an average of all the trackers that came out today, things do appear to be tightening at least a tiny bit. and im not saying to discount the pew, but since it is a pretty big outlier compared to the rest just for the sake of argument, if you ignore it and take an average the race seems a lot closer than it did 3 or 4 days ago.

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NW Patrick:

Boom could you show me some state trending to prove RACE ON with 4 business days to go?

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fed:

Judging by the State polls, McCain´s gains in the tracking polls must come from undicided voters in UT; OK,AL,WY, KS,and MS going for McCain

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boomshak:

We now have 3 major tracking polls within the MOE and one 1 point above. Hard to keep ignoring this.

____________________

zotz:

Every week it's the same routine. Volatile Gallup tightens, Boom overreacts, everybody yells at boom. Same ol' same ol'. BORING!!!

____________________

abraxaf:

Wow, boom, you have really gone through the rabbit hole. You honestly believe that turnout and party ID is going to be similar to 2004, despite all the evidence of the primaries and early voting? You're in pathological level denial mode. Incidentally, does anyone know if any Selzer polls are due to be out before the election? They seem to be uncannily good at predicting turnout in their models.

____________________

decided:

let boomshak be happy in his belief.

Let him still have 6 more happy days. Then reality will strike him even harder.

____________________

[nemesis]:

boomshak:

Todays's Polls:

Rasmussen - O+5
GWU - (Garbage, doesn't matter)
Gallup - O+7
Zogby - (Garbage, doesn't matter)

Sorry, there seemed to be some errors in your post that I felt I had to correct for you.

____________________

saywhat90:

so if the lv traditional would have been +8 for obama would you accept it boom?

____________________

cinnamonape:

New Politico?Insider Advantage poll in Colorado and Pennsylvania

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15024.html

"Barack Obama is firmly ahead of John McCain in both Colorado and Pennsylvania, a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll shows. In the swing state of Colorado, Obama posts an 8-point lead over McCain, besting him 53 percent to 45 percent. He holds a similar advantage in Pennsylvania, where he tops McCain by 9 percentage points, 51 percent to 42 percent."

____________________

carl29:

I understand that these numbers have: Saturday, Sunday, Monday. We already know that Saturday and Sunday are days when only old and boring people are able for pollsters. However, as I said yesterday, the skinhead plot was not good news for Barack because everyday that the talk in town is about race and possible chaos, people get scared. I hope that as soon as the plot is not longer on the news the typical pattern will hold. Let's see, I could be wrong but let's see :-)

*Remember that tomorrow is Barack 30-minute ad, so that should change the conversation back to the issues and away from the skinheads.

____________________

boomshak:

State polls always lag national polls.

____________________

sunnymi:


Gallup shows the race tightening from Mon-Wed and then shows an expansion in the lead for Obama Thu-Sun....you can see that happen in each of the last 3 weeks.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx

____________________

RussTC3:

Slight tightening as undecided Republican's come home. Obama's support still steady at +50%. Like I've said before 3-5 points heading into election day is all I want.

Just a week to go.

Man, I can't wait for this race to be over with...

____________________

NW Patrick:

Boom let me know when the state polls catch up. 4 business days/news cycles to go!:) HA!

____________________

carl29:

The 30-minute ad will put the focus back to the issues.

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

I hope someone saves all the ridiculous **** Boomshack spews so that we can spat it all back at him on election day.

____________________

thoughtful:

Glad to see the boom last it through to Gallup:

2% to 15% - best ways somewhere in the middle is 7% nationally, we'll see on the nite of November 4th.

Its the state polls that really matter and the bottom line is that McCain appears not to have any viable route to 270 EVs at this stage?

390+EVs

____________________

boomshak:

Man, that Pew +15 poll is looking pretty silly right about now.

____________________

NW Patrick:

"State Polls ALWAYS lag national polls."
Anyone have any evidence of this? Also, make an intelligent argument for this. If a state poll is conducted over 3 days within the past week and a National poll is conducted over 3 days within the last week I'm not understanding the "LAG" effect since you are polling the state itself. Are the people saying 1 thing nationally and 1 thing locally? ROFL Idiot.

____________________

boomshak:

What you guys seem to be ignoring is a 3 point move in a tracking poll in one day is HUUUGE.

There can be no doubt that McCain polled ahead of Obama on Monday on Gallup. No doubt.

____________________

carl29:

You'll see what boomy thinks about Gallup on Friday :-)

____________________

[nemesis]:

No boomshak, YOU and your insistence on using the Gallup model intended to appease right-wing nut-jobs like yourself, along with GWU and IBD, is what is looking pretty silly right now.

____________________

orange24:

State polls always lag national polls.

News Flash -- there ain't that much time for them to lag.

Seriously, I was hoping for a good day for Obama, but even I didn't expect a 14 point lead:

US: Obama 52, McCain 38 (Pew 10/23-26)

See, we can all pick the ones we like best. Incidentally, the last Pew poll before the 2004 election had Bush by 3. Boy, they were way off, huh?

____________________

Trosen:

It's stories like this that blow a million holes in the "traditional" model. People aren't taking "no" for an answer this year. You can look at the "traditional" model all you want and pretend that there aren't millions of new registered democrats, that republican rolls have contracted, and that the AA turnout will be like never before.. but that's just not the case.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17819448/detail.html

____________________

Rippleeffect:

Gallup (Traditional)* 10/25 - 10/27 2448 LV 2.0 49 47 Obama +2
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/25 - 10/27 2343 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7


Whoops!

____________________

Mister H.:

From Boomshak: "We now have 3 major tracking polls within the MOE and one 1 point above. Hard to keep ignoring this."


Boomshak....Could you please explain to me how any of that even matters if McCain is continuing to struggle in the state polls?

Why is it that almost every expert is saying that the state polls are what count most now?

I'm sure you will likely jump to a conclusion of "Yeah, but the states just lag behind the nationals a little bit." But how so? If the interviews are being done at the exact same time, how is that truly happening?

In PA, McCain has made extremely little progress after a week of throwing everything at it. In Colorado, he is down WORSE. Same thing for many of the other states.

So please explain to me how a 2% deficit in a possibly outdated traditional model when he is getting punked in every other category and the battleground states actually means something??

____________________

Trosen:

It's stories like this that blow a million holes in the "traditional" model. People aren't taking "no" for an answer this year. You can look at the "traditional" model all you want and pretend that there aren't millions of new registered democrats, that republican rolls have contracted, and that the AA turnout will be like never before.. but that's just not the case.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17819448/detail.html

____________________

straight talk:

McCAIN GAINS IN THE NATIONAL POLLS IS NOISE!SHOW ME ONE STATE POLL THAT IS AN ENCOURAGING SIGN FOR McCAIN? AND WAIT UNTIL CNN, MSNBC, AND THE OTHER POLLS COME OUT!

____________________

paradski:

@boom

AS I PREDICTED:
Gallup always telegraphs their big changes. Yesterday, gallup said that although Obama was ahead, McCain could come back and win and here we go.

When will you learn how to look at daily trackers. You jump all over daily changes which ironically don't matter. It's why you have to change which polls you like every day. By this weekend it will be back to +10 expanded/+5 trad if not higher.

____________________

orange24:

Man, that Pew +15 poll is looking pretty silly right about now.

Yeah, they missed the last race by almost a full point.

____________________

sunnymi:


Today's tightening on Gallup is more likely a result of a big Friday number dropping off the rolling average rather than a big day for McCain last night....if that were the case it would have gotten mentioned here.

As I wrote earlier:
McCain's Ceiling: 45-46
Obama's Floor: 47-48

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

Dude, wake up. Your man is in deep sh*t. he lost 3 points in one day on Rasmussen yesterday and 3 points on Gallup today. That is a monstrous momentum change a week out.

____________________

DTM:

It also seems very likely that Obama polled behind McCain in Rasmussen's daily sample on Sunday, then went way back ahead of McCain in Monday's sample.

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

You know where the expanded model of Gallup will be most likely to occur? In the Battleground states of course! There we will see turnout of greater than 66%.

Are we also to just not count anyone who just registered to vote? Doesn't make sense to me.

____________________

saywhat90:

at the end of last week the race tigthened yet the poll for state increased on obama favor. state polls dont always follow the national trend. and besides this may only be a blip on the radar

____________________

RussTC3:

Here are the latest Insider Advantage/Politico polls from Colorado and Pennslylvania:

Colorado, 10/26 (10/20 in parenthesis)
Obama 53 (51)
McCain 45 (46)
Obama +2, McCain -1 = 3 point change in favor of Obama

Pennsylvania, 10/26 (no trend lines)
Obama 51
McCain 42

____________________

OGLiberal:

@Northeastern Republican

Yes, it is tightening...as will any race in the closing days. Undecideds are definitely going to swing to McCain in larger numbers than they do to Obama - as horrible as his campaign has been run, he's a known quality. If you're undecided at this point, you're probably afraid of change. While there is no incumbent in the race this year, McCain is the guy you know.

The problem is that nationally and in key swing states, Obama has been at or over 50% for the last month. He's not losing support. If he gets 50% or more of the vote nationally and 50% or more of the vote in key swing states on election day, he cruises to victory. That's what appears to be happening. Even with this tightening, Obama is still over 50% in the RCP average.

As for those (this is not directed at you, NE Republican) who say that Obama should be ahead of McCain by 10-15 pts at this point, there are some things that need to be noted....

First, the electorate these days is so divided that it's nearly impossible for any presidential candidate to get over 52% of the popular vote, even in this Dem friendly year.

The second thing to remember is that the Dem candidate is a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama who grew up in Hawaii and Indonesia and who was a virtual unknown to most people until about 2 years ago. He's been accused of cavorting with terrorists, being a closet Muslim, and of having a secret plan to convert our nation to communism. He had a pastor who yelled, "G-D America" from the pulpit. He's running against a war hero who - until very recently - was widely viewed as a moderate, a maverick...a favorite of the media.

Yet despite all of this, he's in the lead. He's polling over 50% nationally and in most key states. (Remember when the argument was, "Why can't he break 50%?") And he'll likely win 300+ EVs on election day.

People need to think about this before they start wondering why he isn't ahead by a bazillion points.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@RussTC3

Add to that this Insider Advantage poll

GEORGIA
McCain, 48%
Obama, 47%
Barr, 1%

____________________

whoshotsam:

InsiderAdvantage Georgia...

M: 48
O: 47
Barr: 1

Wow!

Chambliss barely hanging on against Martin.

____________________

DTM:

By the way, once again the "traditional" model had more people in it than the "expanded" model. As I have noted before, this likely means that not only is it excluding some new voters who are enthusiastic, but it is also including some former voters who are relatively unenthusiastic, and that the second category actually outweighs the first.

____________________

Trosen:

Same old refrain. McCain making red states glow blood red while more and more battlegrounds slip away. Don't wrry trolls. McCain will dominate in Kansas and Nebraska.

____________________

carl29:

Copy boomshack's references about Gallup because on Friday the story will be different :-)

____________________

sunnymi:

Insider Advantage (Georgia)

President
---------
McCain - 48%
Obama - 47%
Barr - 1%
Other - 1%
Undecidced - 3%

U.S. Senate
-----------
Chambliss, 46%
Martin, 45
Other, 2%
Undecided, 8%

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/restricted/2008/October%202008/10-28-08/Georgia_Poll102819642.php

____________________

NW Patrick:

It's time for the daily REALITY CHECK:

**OHIO**

RCP Average 10/18 - 10/27 -- -- 50.3 44.3 Obama +6.0

SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/27 648 LV 3.9 49 45 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 49 45 Obama +4
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
PPP (D) 10/21 - 10/23 993 LV 3.1 51 44 Obama +7
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 408 LV 5.0 52 42 Obama +10
Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/18 - 10/22 886 LV 3.3 49 46 Obama +3

**FLORIDA**

RCP Average 10/20 - 10/26 -- -- 48.2 45.5 Obama +2.7

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
Suffolk 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV -- 49 44 Obama +5
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 603 LV 4.1 47 47 Tie
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 562 LV 5.0 48 47 Obama +1
St. Petersburg Times 10/20 - 10/22 800 RV 3.5 49 42 Obama +7

**VIRGINIA**

RCP Average 10/19 - 10/26 -- -- 51.3 44.0 Obama +7.3

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 671 LV 3.9 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 52 45 Obama +7
Washington Post 10/22 - 10/25 784 LV 3.5 52 44 Obama +8
VCU 10/20 - 10/22 817 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 647 LV 4.0 54 44 Obama +10

**COLORADO** (Not including today's Insider poll)

RCP Average 10/11 - 10/26 -- -- 51.0 44.8 Obama +6.2
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 50 46 Obama +4
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 10/21 - 10/23 500 LV 4.4 52 40 Obama +12
InAdv/PollPosition 10/20 - 10/20 576 LV 4.0 51 46 Obama +5
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 762 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4

**NEVADA**

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/26 -- -- 49.0 45.5 Obama +3.5

Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 48 44 Obama +4
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 700 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Politico/InAdv 10/19 - 10/19 690 LV 3.6 47 47 Tie
Rasmussen 10/16 - 10/16 700 LV 4.0 50 45 Obama +5

**MISSOURI**

RCP Average 10/20 - 10/26 -- -- 47.4 46.8 Obama +0.6

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 48 47 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 672 LV 3.9 48 48 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 48 46 Obama +2
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/22 - 10/23 625 LV 4.0 45 46 McCain +1
Post-Dispatch/R2000 10/20 - 10/23 800 LV 3.5 48 47 Obama +1

**NORTH CAROLINA**

RCP Average 10/18 - 10/26 -- -- 48.8 47.2 Obama +1.6

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 48 49 McCain +1
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 50 46 Obama +4
WSOC-TV 10/20 - 10/21 500 LV 4.4 48 46 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 644 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/18 - 10/20 627 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
Politico/InAdv 10/19 - 10/19 698 LV 3.6 49 48 Obama +1

**PA** (not sure why I even include this)

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/26 -- -- 51.4 40.6 Obama +10.8

Temple Univ. 10/20 - 10/26 761 LV 3.6 50 41 Obama +9
Morning Call 10/22 - 10/26 589 LV 4.0 53 40 Obama +13
SurveyUSA 10/21 - 10/22 620 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 566 LV 4.2 52 41 Obama +11
Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/21 1425 LV 2.6 53 40 Obama +13
National Journal/FD 10/16 - 10/20 412 RV 4.9 51 41 Obama +10
Susquehanna 10/16 - 10/18 700 LV 3.7 48 40 Obama +8

***Indiana***

RCP Average 10/07 - 10/26 -- -- 46.5 46.8 Obama +0.3

Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 601 LV 4.1 50 44 McCain +6
SurveyUSA 10/21 - 10/22 631 LV 4.0 45 49 Obama +4
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 586 LV 4.2 41 51 Obama +10
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/19 1411 LV 2.6 46 48 Obama +2

**NEW MEXICO**

RCP Average 09/29 - 10/13 -- -- 50.7 42.3 Obama +8.4

Rasmussen 10/13 - 10/13 700 LV 4.0 55 42 Obama +13
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/13 568 LV 4.2 52 45 Obama +7
Albuquerque Journal 09/29 - 10/02 659 LV 3.8 45 40 Obama +5

**IOWA**

RCP Average 10/19 - 10/24 -- -- 52.2 40.8 Obama +11.4

Marist 10/23 - 10/24 645 LV 4.0 52 42 Obama +10
Rasmussen 10/23 - 10/23 700 LV 4.0 52 44 Obama +8
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/22 - 10/23 625 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11
Quad City-Times/R2000 10/19 - 10/22 600 LV 4.0 54 39 Obama +15
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 586 LV 4.2 52 39 Obama +13

***NH***

RCP Average 10/17 - 10/23 -- -- 51.0 43.3 Obama +7.7

Marist 10/22 - 10/23 655 LV 4.0 50 45 Obama +5
Rasmussen 10/23 - 10/23 700 LV 4.0 50 46 Obama +4
Boston Globe/UNH 10/18 - 10/22 725 LV 3.5 54 39 Obama +15
Concord Monitor 10/17 - 10/19 600 LV 4.0 50 43 Obama +7

WAITING ON EVIDENCE OF A MCCAIN SURGE! Been waiting for weeks....


____________________

thoughtful:

@CTPonix4BHObama

Everything on boom and everyone else for that matter is SEARCH at top right on site!

____________________

abraxaf:

McCain surge in GA!!!!!!! Also, I find it hard to believe that Barr is only gonna get 1% in his home state. Weird.

____________________

abraxaf:

Unfortunately, if neither Chambliss nor Martin gets 50%, which is likely because there is a Libertarian candidate, there will be a run-off, which will probably end up favoring Chambliss.

____________________

political_junki:

"boomshak:
@thoughtful:

Dude, wake up. Your man is in deep sh*t. he lost 3 points in one day on Rasmussen yesterday and 3 points on Gallup today. That is a monstrous momentum change a week out."

BOOM: it has happened before. It will go back up.

____________________

Trosen:

Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
Colorado 51.0 44.8 Obama +6.2
Ohio 50.3 44.3 Obama +6.0
Florida 48.2 45.5 Obama +2.7
Nevada 49.0 45.5 Obama +3.5
Missouri 47.4 46.8 Obama +0.6
North Carolina 48.8 47.2 Obama +1.6
Virginia 51.3 44.0 Obama +7.3

So trolls.. all McCain has to do is come from behind and win ALL these states...

Then.. flip PA.

Best of luck.

____________________

faithhopelove:

UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL
(updated)


5 Days Ago:

Obama ~ IN
Joe Biden ~ NC

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ PA


4 Days Ago:

Obama ~ HI
Joe Biden ~ WV, VA
Michelle Obama ~ OH
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ PA, CO
Bill Clinton ~ KY

McCain ~ CO
Palin ~ PA, MO


3 Days Ago:

Obama ~ NV, NM
Joe Biden ~ VA
Jill Biden ~ FL
Hillary ~ TX, NM, UT

McCain ~ NM
Palin ~ IA, IN


2 Days Ago:

Obama ~ CO

McCain ~ IA, OH
Palin ~ FL, NC


Yesterday:

Obama ~ OH, PA
Joe Biden ~ NC, FL
Michelle Obama ~ NV

McCain ~ OH, PA
Palin ~ VA


Today:

Obama ~ PA, VA
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NM, CO
Hillary ~ NH

McCain ~ PA, NC
Palin ~ PA


Tomorrow:

Obama ~ NC, FL
Joe Biden ~ FL
Michelle Obama ~ NC
Bill Clinton ~ PA, FL

McCain ~ FL
Palin ~ OH, IN


Thursday:

Obama ~ FL, MO
Joe Biden ~ MO
Bill Clinton ~ FL, WV, OH, MN

McCain ~ OH
Palin ~ MO, OH, PA


Friday:

Obama ~ MO, IA

McCain ~ OH


Saturday:

Palin ~ NC


Sunday:

Bill Clinton ~ NH


Monday:

McCain ~ AZ?


Speculation on locations of Obama's final weekend (Saturday-Monday) rallies:

Philadelphia
Cleveland
Columbus
Cincinnati
Charleston
Miami
Tampa-St. Petersburg
Arlington
Charlotte
East Chicago/Gary
Bloomington
Indianapolis
Omaha
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Las Vegas
Phoenix/Tempe
Tucson

____________________

MDB1974:

anyone out there concerned Obama's Wednesday ad buy could backfire? my fear is that he appears to be on the road to victory, why do something out of the ordinary at this point.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Boom... a 2% likely voter model is still a win for Obama, especially with his targeted electoral strenth in PA, NM, CO, IA, and VA. It's over "my friend."

____________________

sunnymi:

Uh..Oh! Romney did not get the memo!

Romney: Obama Win Likely

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/top_mccain_surrogate_romney_ob.php

____________________

DTM:

By the way, I am aware of no evidence that state polls lag national polls taken at the same time. Individual state poll averages may lag national poll averages, but that is only because the states tend to be polled more sporadically, so it takes longer for new trends to show up in state averages.

Finally, Nate Silver recently pointed out the following with respect to the sheer quantity of data in question:

"Our model places more emphasis on state polling, and there's a pretty good reason why: they give us a lot more data to look at. Today's for instance, there were 3,539 'fresh' interviews conducted (e.g. those that were not already accounted for in previous' days tracking polls) between eight national polls that we added to our database. By contrast, there were 22,881 fresh interviews conducted between 31 new state polls."

____________________

adherosignori:

Im with boomshak on this one... by my math (see below) McCain has 50% in Wisconsin here's how...

take the McCain's % (41) and divide it by the % error (3)= 13666.666666666 and do the same with Obama's % and error = 16666.66666666 divide the Obama's by McCain's to = 1.2195 and then multiply by 41 (McCain's old %) to equal 50%

____________________

orange24:

anyone out there concerned Obama's Wednesday ad buy could backfire? my fear is that he appears to be on the road to victory, why do something out of the ordinary at this point.

I'm right with you on that one, MDB1974. I didn't like the idea when it was announced a few weeks ago. I'm afraid that it will come off as arrogant or presumptuous at this point in the game. Almost certainly, they expected to be in a much tighter race at this point and were angling for some time to state their case. But, with leads as big as they have, it might not have the best effect. I'll certainly watch it (and enjoy it), but he already has my vote. I share your concern that it will turn off undecideds.

____________________

Trosen:

MDB1974:
"anyone out there concerned Obama's Wednesday ad buy could backfire? my fear is that he appears to be on the road to victory, why do something out of the ordinary at this point."

No not really. It obviously won't sway anyone who already voted, nor will it have any effect on those who are set on who they are voting for. However, if it can calm a few of those deer in headlight nervous nellie "undecideds" that Obama isn't a crazy Ay-rab and isn't going to put all the plumbers out of business.. enough to say keep the undecideds to a 60/40 +McCain split, it's succeeded. I can't imagine a bunch of people leaning Obama will see anything in it that will make them jump ship. Somehow I don't think it's going to be a 30 minute seminar on the virtues of Marxism.

____________________

Come on Obama!!!

You can't pretend that the polls aren't tightening, you just can't. I'm a little nervous but I won't be THAT nervous until Obama's numbers start to go down. Right now it seems his are steady and McCain has increased a bit. I guess that was to be expected.

But I don't think you can dismiss these new polls out of hand.

____________________

Atomique:

Suffolk University poll of Nevada:

Obama 50, Palin 40
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/Nevada_Marginals_Oct_27_20081__2_.pdf

____________________

NW Patrick:

MDB1974 silly! It won't hurt a thing.

____________________

carl29:

MDB1974,

That could be a possibility with some people. However, if all he does is to present his agenda before the American people and ask them for their vote, I don't see how that could hurt them, I mean with mainstream/non-partisan people.

At least that should change the conversation from the skinheads, which I think didn't help yesterday.

____________________

kc_in_MN:

@MDB1974,
I've been thinking the same thing.

____________________

thoughtful:

@boomshak

Noise

please answer one question in your honest opinion: North Carolina, having run the most inept campaign in history is McCain going to win it or lose it?

____________________

cambridge blue:

I'm sure the campaign has internally polled and focus grouped this half-hour show tomorrow. If it was a liability, I would think they would have pulled it or never had proposed it in the first place.

____________________

Trosen:

Atomique.. wow.. another swift knee to the crotch of the McCain surge! How many can the old man withstand?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@sunnymi

Now that is a hilarious article.

We're all going to lose so vote for me and I'll be the only one left to fight the Dems.

____________________

NW Patrick:

God people here are HILLARIOUS. 1 voter model based on 2004 shows plus 2 Obama, 2 other Republican pollsters show a 3 point race. 10 others show 5-10. The electoral college map is near IMPOSSIBLE for McCain.

OBAMA UP 10 in NEVADA. Cmon' guys LOL
I'm not saying anyone should get complacent but cmon':)

____________________

carl29:

Listen up, guys!!!!!!!!

This is just hillarious :-)

Mich. Dems' typo directs voters to phone-sex line

____________________

decided:

anybody who believes this is over:

it is over on election day, not one day before. Until then: Vote, get out the vote and donate!!

no complacency, please

____________________

RussTC3:

Very good result for Obama out of Nevada. Depending on what Rasmussen shows later today, the state could go lean Obama on Pollster.com's map.

Suffolk: Nevada, 10/23-27 (9/17-21 in parenthesis)
Obama 50 (45)
McCain 40 (46)
Obama +5, McCain -6 = 11 point change in favor of Obama

It definitely seems more and more apparent that McCain's slight gain in the national trackers is based entirely on old 2004 models, and his numbers in the South.

____________________

DTM:

@MDB1974

When Obama is seen on TV by lots of people, it tends to help him. The reason is pretty simple: he is an intelligent, grounded, optimistic, pragmatic, and generally reassuring person, and seeing him as such helps people imagine him doing a good job as President.

Now, at this late stage it may or may not do a lot to help him. But I think it is highly unlikely it will hurt him, and at a minimum it will run a little more time off the clock.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wow up 10 in NEVADA and down 1 in GA. AZ tightening for McCain. SURGE!

____________________

Trosen:

NW.. we're not (speaking for Obama/moveon vounteers) Trust me. And listen.. those that think it's "in the bag" want a freakin blowout in the wrost way. there's a lot of pent up frustration against Bush and Rove being unleashed by the left.. and we are not complacent over anything.

____________________

hou04:

I am in Houston, TX. No one here expects that Obama will carry TX, but I can tell you that the early voting #s here are record-breaking. Because of the high Democratic turnout, it is predicted that our county government will switch from GOP to the Democrats after 16 years.

____________________

straight talk:

THIS OBAMA NEW AD BUY IS NOT NEW! ROSS PEROT DID IT! AND HE GOT 29+MIL VIEWERS? IT WILL GIVE HIM THE OPPORTUNITY TO EXPLAIN HIS PLAN FOR AMERICA! REMEMBER IT WAS LIKE THE FOREIGN TRIP OBAMA WENT ON! EVERYONE THOUGHT HE MADE A MISTAKE BY DOING SO! HIS POLL NUMBERS WENT UP! WHAT IF OBAMA GETS AN AUDIENCE OF 40+MIL VIEWERS? THIS GUY IS NOT TAKING HIS LEAD FOR GRANTED! REMEMBER SOME VOTERS ARE JUST NOW PAYING ATTENTION FOR THE FIRST TIME! I GUESS THEIR IS ONLY ONE REAL MAVERICK AND HIS NAME IS BARACK OBAMA!!!!!!!! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!

____________________

carl29:

Listen up, guys!!!!!!!!

This is just hillarious :-)

Mich. Dems' typo directs voters to phone-sex line

____________________

NW Patrick:

decided Jesus. Thanks for the Oprah speach. This is a pollster website. If some of us truly believe it's OVER it doesn't mean we are not voting, take a chill pill. This RACE IS OVER> OVER OVER OVER. McCain has ZERO chance. I voted a week ago:) LOL

____________________

orange24:

No, no -- That state poll that was taken on the 27th lags behind the national numbers. That's a proven fact :-)

____________________

mysticlaker:

Here is my spreadsheet on what has happened in gallup (RV only, I don't know how do deal with there LV models, they are too weird).

Fri Sat Sn Mon
54 50 49 50
41 44 44 42

of course, lots of other permutations are possible, but this is my educated guess...

____________________

political_junki:

Working Class:
This is from 538.com to calm some of your worries:

----------------------------------------------
There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?

Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Here is my spreadsheet on what has happened in gallup (RV only, I don't know how do deal with there LV models, they are too weird).

Fri Sat Sn Mon
54 50 49 50
41 44 44 42

of course, lots of other permutations are possible, but this is my educated guess...

____________________

decided:

Montana NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
North Carolina NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie

____________________

syrac818:

Hey, can someone clarify two questions I have? Would really appreciate it:

1) Do the early voting numbers we're seeing correspond more directly to Gallup's "Traditional" model or "Likely" model?

2) Yesterday, Rasmussen's numbers went from +8 Obama to +5. Because of that, I thought today's numbers would show Obama +4, but they stayed at +5. Does that mean he had a strong polling day yesterday?

Thanks.

____________________

decided:

New Hampshire NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 50, McCain 39 Obama +11

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RussTC3:

The ad-buy allows for Obama to keep the focus right where the American public wants it...the issues.

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NW Patrick:

New Hampshire NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 50, McCain 39 Obama +11
Montana NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
North Carolina NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie

SURGE! A damn Republican leading poll showing a blowout in NH and Republican STRONGHOLD NC tied! BAD BAD MCCAIN NEWS!

____________________

soldier07:

Hello all, first time poster here. Just some guy thousands of miles away who is obsessed with this election.

I've been on this site for a few weeks now as I need to get my poll "fix" before cnn or fox decides to publish their hand-selected polls.

So I've been trying to figure out how a reputable institution like Pew could come out with results that so greatly contrast to that of Gallup's results. Then, I looked at the dates and realized Pew conducted it's survey from oct. 23-26. Gallup, Rass and others would have conducted their polls from 25-27 (if they were on a three day rolling average).

Anyone else think that the 23rd and 24th of oct. were strong Obama days that just dropped off coinciding with a minor uptick in McCain's support?

If I remember correctly, Rass had Obama up by 8 just the other day.

It seems as if in the past few days there was a surge of Obama support picked up by Rass, Gallup and Pew which is now leveling off of suffering from the "weekend skew."

Who knows, don't be harsh, by no means do I pretend to understand the polls, I'm just trying to make an observation.

PS: Yes, I'm looking for ways to make me feel better because I don't want McCain to win ahhaha.

____________________

political_junki

Thanks buddy. I guess he's got one right? So it's 1/2/2?

The Gallup poll showing a +2 for Obama?

____________________

RussTC3:

Hmm, no trend lines to measure against for all three of those NBC/WSJ polls.

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carl29:

@syrac818

"2) Yesterday, Rasmussen's numbers went from +8 Obama to +5. Because of that, I thought today's numbers would show Obama +4, but they stayed at +5. Does that mean he had a strong polling day yesterday?"

Logic tells me that at least in Rasmussen's polling night Obama didn't do as bad as in Gallup. However, Obama did bad on Sunday night with Rasmussen, so it seems that Gallup caught up with that last night. Last night Obama didn't do bad with Rasmussen, so the question remains, how will Obama do tonight? Isn't puzzling? Yeah!!!!

____________________

JCK:

Mason-Dixon leans slight R, but they were very accurate in 2004.

NC is a true tossup (with a very slight lean to Obama). MT is a longshot, but it's amazing that the RNC is spending ad money there during the last week of October.

The M-D Poll is NH, showing an 11 point lead. I think the window in NH for McCain is closing fast.

____________________

RussTC3:

Sorry, I meant NBC/Mason-Dixon.

____________________

thoughtful:

@NW Patrick

I ran part of the General Election Campaign in the UK in 1992 and their Labor Party thought they had it in the bag a week before election day, and none of those idiots could understand why it wasn't in the bag, no matter how many ways I illustrated it for them.

I don't and neither do you have the canvass returns from the 100 counties that will decide this election.

Still I make it 390EVs and yes that does include Georgia

____________________

laguna_b:

The latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll says that of the 9% who say they've already voted, either by early in-person voting or absentee ballot, their preference is Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain, by 60% to 39%.


So, the rest of teh votes are for Mccain to lose as the become deppressed and don't even vote....THESE votes are locked up!

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NW Patrick:

soldier07 as I've told everyone DON'T DISECT individual polls. Look at them as ALL correct...take the average..and that's the election. It's about 7% Obama right now. RCP was DEAD ON last election in '04 with their polling average at 1.5% for Bush. Bush won with about 1.5% of the popular vote and a slight electoral college win in the 280's.

____________________

ctj:

Watch out for NJ is tightening! LOL!

____________________

DTM:

@syrac818

(1) Presumably Gallup, like most pollsters, would include any person reporting they had actually voted in their likely voter sample, regardless of how they scored on the other questions. Incidentally, that in theory should lead to some convergence between the models over time as some uncertainty about who should be in the likely voter pool is eliminated.

However, you might be asking if the early voting patterns are more consistent with either model. I'm not sure if there is a definitive answer to this question, but the sheer number of people voting early, including many new registerants, inclines me to think we expect a relatively large participation rate in this election.

(2) Probably yes. The daily samples are underdetermined by the averages, but most estimates suggest that in Rasmussen today a pretty decent Obama sample dropped off, and therefore for no change a pretty decent Obama sample must have replaced it.

____________________

Nhoj:

and only up four in montana aswell NW

____________________

carl29:

@soldier07,

You are right with your analysis about McCain doing better in weekends than in weekdays. Who do you think pollsters reach during weekends? If you are a younger and socially active person, most probable you won't be at home during the weekend. So those "voters" who pollsters reach during the weekends tend to be more of the Republican demographic.

Now, my advise about those polls is not to go crazy with the spread, for some pollsters don't push voters to disclose their leanings. Focus on the level of support of each candidate. Obama is more or less at the same level of support in almost all the polls, around 50%. However, McCain's changes depending on the pollster "push."

____________________

Trosen:

Guys.. these "expanded models" and "traditional models" are very UN-scientific. They are completely hypothetical "guesses" by the pollster, not even theoretical ones. Time and time again, as Chuck Todd and other poll "gurus" have said, the RV # is the one to watch if you really want a handle on how the race seems to be shaping up.

____________________

NW Patrick:

NEVADA SHOULD GO BLUE TODAY ON THE POLLSTER.COM MAP once the +10 Suffolk poll in Nevada is posted. HORRIBLE NEWS, for Grandpa.

____________________

faithhopelove:

"ACTUAL VOTER" NUMBERS IN SUSA/SUFFOLK/RASMUSSEN/PPP POLLS
(most recent polls for each pollster)

VA
SUSA
O: 67%
M: 30%

NM
SUSA
O: 60%
M: 37%

IA
SUSA
O: 65%
M: 31%

IN
SUSA
O: 50%
M: 46%

OH
SUSA
O: 56%
M: 39%

NC
SUSA
O: 59%
M: 36%
PPP
O: 63%
M: 36%
RASMUSSEN: From the narrative of yesterday's Rasmussen poll of NC: "Obama leads among North Carolina voters who have already cast their ballots, while McCain leads among those who have not."

GA
SUSA
O: 52%
M: 46%

FL
SUSA
O: 45%
M: 53%
Suffolk
O: 60%
M: 40%
See:
http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/MI101890/

____________________

NW Patrick:

National polls at this point are worthless. Follow the states. The electoral college wins elections, not 38% leads in Oklahoma, NY, California, and Texas. LOL

____________________

political_junki:

"Working Class:
political_junki

Thanks buddy. I guess he's got one right? So it's 1/2/2?"

No he doesnt have any of them. He is not with in 2% of O in either PA, VA or CO...
Look at state polls...

____________________

DTM:

@soldier07

First, welcome!

Second, that is certainly possible. But it may well be that for methodological reasons Pew would have shown basically the same result regardless of its exact timing. Moreover, as people have been backing out the dailies, no real notable pattern is emerging other than that several of the trackers have had a bad day for Obama in at least one of the recent days, but not the same day. That's not too surprising given normal random variance, and this it may imply little or nothing about what would have happened if yet another poll was taken over the same timespan.

____________________

JerryTheAngel:

A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia finds Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by just one point, 48% to 47%.

____________________

NW Patrick:

+10 in Nevada. WOW.

____________________

thoughtful:

@NWPatrick

The averages definitely have it somewhere between the 2 outliers at 2% and 15% in the middle with 7%.

There are still quite a few undecided out there.

Taking the States polls and this is where I can understand "over" is that there appears to be too many states (assuming Kerry States in the bag) where Obama has very strong leads for there to be any but the most fanciful route for McCain to win- maybe 5% chance. 20-1 are very generous odds but statistcally that's how the averages stack up. I think Nate538 has it at under 5%.

____________________

mirrorball:

Boomshak brought up voter turnout (said Gallup's expanded model assumes 66% turnout) and I was wondering if anyone knows of good sources of past turnout.

I've found some Census and FEC numbers, but they don't seem to agree, even though both claim to show percentages of voting age population (rather than just registered voters).

Wikipedia has the FEC numbers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election#Voter_turnout

____________________

mirrorball:

Minor correction: The Wiki numbers through 1996 are from FEC. Not sure about the rest. Census put "voting age citizen" turnout in 2004 at 64%, the highest since 1992 when it was 68%. But they seem to be using a different methodology or data than FEC.

____________________

fox:

LOL @ boomshak, never fail to provide a good laugh.

____________________

Cane Cattivo:

@soldier07:

Your analysis looks very plausible to me. In addition to that, as other have said, we should also look at (i) state polls (today's Nevada and Georgia ones provide substantive information if roughly accurate) and (ii) early voting patterns.

In any case, it's inspiring that you are following this so closely being so far! Cheers!

____________________

mago:

As mentioend, M-D is a reasonably good pollster but has a consistent GOP house effect. So factoring in a 2-point R lean, we would get

MT M +2
NC O +2
NH O +13

Those are sweet numbers, though not quite as sweet as the other state polls that just came out...esp. +10 in NV.

Gallup is opening itself to ridicule with its absurd traditional LV model.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

So, the last innings of game 5 of the 2008 World Series will resume immediately folloeing Obama's speech on Wednesday night. Wonde if this will bring up viewers of Obama's prime time special.

____________________

AB:

Good source for past turnout is the NC sboe.
As of 7:30 am this morning early turnout in NC is as follows:
Total 1,412,113 voters
Dems 771,549 (54.64%)
Repubs 396,112 (28.05%)
Although not every Dem will vote for Obama, and not every Repub will vote for McCain, the difference in number of votes cast is 375,437.
This number continues to widen every time the numbers are updated (compare with difference in favor of Dems of 324,360 at 1:00 am Sunday).
You might say "Big deal," but here are the registration numbers in NC:
Total 6,220,485
Dems 2,841,111 (45.67%)
Repubs 1,991,497 (32.02%)

Subract those who have voted from those who haven't:
Dems 2,069,562 voters still to go to the polls
Repubs 1,595,385 voters still to go to the polls.
That would appear to be an advantage.

How are people voting in the booth?
Can't be sure about that but I wonder why there isn't EXIT POLLING going on right now.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@boom. I have one question for you. How much money have you put on intrade for mccain?

If you put in 1200 = 10,000
If you put in 12,000 = 100000

That is easy money. Are you in?

____________________

mysticlaker:

@ryan...it's more likley to raise the W. Series viewing. It's been a dismal ratings year for it.

____________________

carl29:

mirrorball,

Voter turnout in 2004 was high compared to previous years. So, moving from 64% to 66% this year is not that hard to believe.

____________________

That Nevada poll doesn't surprise me one bit. From where I am in the Uni Corridor and pretty much what I've seen all around Clark is we're turing those red rocks of the Valley into blue rocks!

____________________

laguna_b:

BOOMSHAK...one for you:
The latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll says that of the 9% who say they've already voted, either by early in-person voting or absentee ballot, their preference is Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain, by 60% to 39%.

Palin the COLLECTIVIST COMMUNIST:
"We're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

-- Gov. Sarah Palin, quoted by the New Yorker, a few weeks before she was nominated for vice president.

____________________

richieBr:

@faithhopelove:

With regards to the last big Obama rallies, I would do Orlando and Charlotte on Sunday (the Panthers aren't playing, they're on the bye), and maybe Cleveland and Vegas on Saturday.

I would be careful of planning a rally in Philadelphia with the Phillies in the World Series - win or lose they might crowd out an Obama rally.

I think Obama has to do Vegas since it is the last his firewall, i.e. the Kerry States plus IA, NM and Nevada. If he hadn't just been in Denver you would say maybe go back there - other Colorado choices such as Boulder and Fort Collins are both college towns with football games on Saturday.

Wherever Obama decides to campaign he has to be aware of outside (i.e football) effects.

____________________



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