Mark Blumenthal | October 26, 2008
Topics: Daily Trackers
Another day, another collection of national daily trackers displaying mostly random change. If there has been any real shift in voter preferences over the last few days, it is not large enough to be measured consistently by these surveys.
Of the seven trackers that release results over the weekend (and using the "extended" likely voter model for Gallup that we plot on our charts), we see nominal shifts to McCain on three polls, nominal shifts to Obama on two and two with unchanged margins. If you prefer to count the Gallup traditional LV model, shift one from the Obama to the McCain column.
The important point is that none of these changes is big enough to be considered statistically significant on any one poll. A consistent pattern of change might be suggestive of a real trend, but none is evident here either over the last 24 hours or the last week.
In the six days week since ABC News and the Washington Post started releasing results for their daily tracking poll, Obama's average lead on these seven has varied between a low of 6.7 (on 10/20) and a high of 8.1 (yesterday). Today's average is 7.4.