February 3, 2008
Super Tuesday Endgame
Now that the first "Super" event of the week is over, time to turn to the next one.
We've got a number of polls in several states, fewer polls in others. Here are the trends in the 16 states for which we have polls since January 1.
In the Republican chart below, I've omitted Utah where Romney holds an 84-4 lead over McCain, according to the one Republican poll since January 1. Expanding the scale to include that data point makes it hard to see the differences in all the other states.
See the individual state charts at Pollster.com for trend estimates in the states with sufficient polling. Here, look at the data and reach your own conclusions. The data here are through Sunday. I'll update the charts Monday evening with the Monday polls.
Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.
By Charles Franklin on February 3, 2008 11:33 PM | Permalink
Comments
Good thing you cut-out Ron Paul, just like Fox News. Way to go! Your bias is obvious.
I was worried going into the weekend that Obama's numbers would take a medium sized dive. I think the Gallup tracking poll had Obama down after including Friday's numbers but it's back up with the Saturday numbers. And there are more positive polls for him this weekend than negative. Isn't it surprising that Obama didn't take a weekend hit considering his supporters skew much younger than Clinton's? And can we trust any Super Bowl Sunday polls?
Might want to add the new Zogby tracking polls to this http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1445
So at the superbowl we saw that you can win from the establishment, as long as you believe in yourself and fellow countrymen.
Guys make sure you check out the article "The Intoxication of Inspiration" on the blogzine SAVAGE POLITICS (not related to Mike Savage) at www.savagepolitics.com. It is awesome......everyone should read it before voting.
Where's Ron Paul?
There's a strange mix, on the Democratic side, of states where Obama's bounce continued and he matched or passed Clinton, and states where his bounce was deflected and followed by a downturn. Assuming this is not due to different dates for the data (i.e. that there's a national stop to his bounce - increasingly unlikely based on the last two days of polls) it seems that there is some sort of major difference between a state like MA and a state like CT. Which is strange, as, well, they're pretty similar states.
Posted on February 4, 2008 1:01 AM