Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

SurveyUSA: NH, NJ (10/29-30)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
Mode: IVR

New Hampshire 10/29-30; 682 LV, 3.6%
Obama 53, McCain 42
Sen: Shaheen (D-i) 53, Sununu (R) 40, Blevens (L) 6
Gov: Lynch (D-i) 65, Kenney (R) 28, Newell (L) 5

New Jersey 10/29-30; 632 LV, 4%
Obama 52, McCain 42
Sen: Lautenberg (D-i) 52, Zimmer (R) 37

 

Comments
hirshnoc:

"I think we can still win New Hampshire."

-John McCain, in an interview with Wolf Blitzer

____________________

djneedle83:

The Fat Lady is getting her megaphone!!!!

The gotv (cell phone effect) is worth 3 points in all blue-swing states.

As Jay-Z says ...goodnight!!

____________________

[nemesis]:

Well, presidential results are predictable, but Sununu has an almost insurmountable hill to climb to retain their seat.

____________________

hirshnoc:

Sorry, Larry King.

____________________

zhimbo:

Shaheen isn't D-i, just D.

____________________

mrut:

So McCain now has more of a chance at winning New Jersey than New Hampshire! (Well, just according to this poll.)

____________________

Thatcher:

Why is anyone polling New Jersey? Let's focus on the battlegrounds, eh pollsters? I mean, I can understand NH because of the Senate race (though, it's not so much looking like a race anymore)

____________________

JCK:

Finally four polls in NH in 2004:


Bush +1
Kerry +1
Kerry +1
Kerry +3

____________________

Batony:

I still wouldn't count McCain out in New Hampshire...he will be there Sunday.

____________________

Paul:

SUSA - NH --- 27 point advantage with females and 36 point advantage with moderates.

____________________

The_Huntsman:

NH is a done deal, as are CO and NM, and probably VA. It's really all down to PA for McCain. I think it's a done deal, but if you listen to Strategic Vision and the magical internals of the McCain campaign, supposedly it's in play. We'll see.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Bath:

As a volunteer up here, he does not have a chance.

He is coming back for superstious reaasons.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Batony

I'd like to know what you do in DC - because I lived and worked there for several years with political action groups and on campaigns in VA ... and I never was beaten down in my optimism about winning as much as you ...

NH RCP average is Obama +12.3
538 has Obama chances at winning NH at 98%
Pollster.com has it between 6.6% (on less sensitive settings) and 15.0% (on more sensitive settings)

How the hell does McCain and Co turn that around?

____________________

Batony:

I'm not saying anything is a done deal until Nov. 4th.

____________________

Chester:

This is a very cool site that, being from Canada, I was happy to participate in. It's from a guy in Iceland who figured that, as the US is arguably the one remaining superpower, everyone in the world should have a say in who leads it. So far the only country that would, by this "model" elect McCain is Macedonia.

http://www.iftheworldcouldvote.com/

Please forward it on to all of your friends out of country.

____________________

The_Huntsman:

Batony: one campaign stop is going to turn around an 11 point deficit?? Unless McCain turns water into wine at that stop, I really don't think that's going to be the case.

____________________

Mike A.:

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_10_29.pdf
In PA
O 54
M 41

+13

not sure where those other numbers were coming from but they were wrong.

____________________

MichaelJason:

New Hampshire, in the primaries voted for the McCain they loved in 2000, not the angry, erratic McCain of 2008.

____________________

mirrorball:

Not really related to either of these polls, but I'd love to know where McCain's camp is getting these numbers.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_chief_claims_Iowa_dead_even.html

McCain chief claims Iowa "dead even"

McCain manager Rick Davis is using a conference call to make the case that the race is closing, singling out Obama's return to Iowa today as evidence.

"Obama is now on his way back to Iowa as one of last campaign stops," Davis said, alluding to the Democrat's rally in the Des Moines area today.

Nearly very public poll in the state has given Obama a double-digit advantage, including a new poll from KCCI, the Des Moines CBS affilliate, which has the Democrat up 53-39 in a survey taken from October 27-29.

But, without citing details, Davis said the race is much closer.

"Our own data has us dead even in the state of Iowa," he said.

Obama's campaign also believes the Iowa contest is closer than the public polls, and that partially explains the stop there today. But there is also a symbolic and geographic element to the stop. The Democrat is going home to Chicago to trick-or-treat with his kids tonight, and Iowa is a short hop over. Further, it was the January caucuses that established Obama as a real contender and sent him on his way. He returned there for a trumphant Des Moines rally in May when he neared a mathematical lock on the nomination.

____________________

mirrorball:

And a little more from this morning's McCain camp conference call:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/mccain_manager_jazzed_up_comeb.php

McCain Manager "Jazzed Up;" "Comeback"

31 Oct 2008 11:19 am

A "jazzed up" Rick Davis enthused that John McCain is the middle of "the greatest comeback you've seen since John McCain on the primary."

Davis, on a conference call with reporters, said that the campaign has had "the best ten days of polling" since the convention.

"We think we've shaken off the effects of the financial collapse that have suppressed our numbers prior to the last debate. Our own data has us dead even in the state of Iowa."
(Davis said that the Obama campaign's data was also close in Iowa -- although the Obama internal polling gives Obama a double-digit advantage."

McCain strategist/pollster Bill McIntruff said that when the "structure" of American party politics is taken into account, since 1980, at their worst, Republicans have ended a presidential cycle being down only five points in terms of party identification.

"We see intensity increasing with some of the core parts of the Republican identification. Party identification on the exit polls is going to be in the historic norm of minus three to minus five," he said. And "John McCain, in our stuff, has always run ahead of party ID. It's helping create a very very close result."

McInturff projected a turnout of between 130 and 135 million people.

McCain political director Mike DuHaime said that the campaign had knocked on 5.3 million doors ove the past seven days and made 1.3 million telephone calls. DuHaime said that McCain and the Republicans are outperforming Democrats in terms of the numbers of absentee ballots requested and returns.

____________________

cambridge blue:

"Not really related to either of these polls, but I'd love to know where McCain's camp is getting these numbers. "

Their internal polling must have a MOE of +/- 10.

____________________

SmarterThanYou:

I really trust Survey USA, last election they were almost dead on in every state they polled in. McCain guy said their internals show Iowa Tied. Buy SurveyUSA has Obama up by 15 points. But then again Obama is going back to Iowa today, so maybe its somewhere in the middle.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

"New Hampshire loves John McCain."

NH 4 votes would be nice but with Obama taking VA, CO and possible NC and OH are we really worried about NH?

____________________

SPARTICUS:

Rick Davis should be selling shoes in a mall somewhere. Even then, I wouldn't trust him: what a smarmy worm.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Mirrorball

I'd like to know what the McCain campaign is seeing also. Oh wait they hired Rudy's pollsters to do their internals. Heck that explains everything.

They are the ones feeding information to Bill O'Really? and helping him update his map as well.

We're DOOMED!!! :=)

____________________

Atomique:

@The_Huntsman:

I'm not so sure. If he turns water into wine, it'll look like a flip-flop on the being a messiah issue.

____________________

NW Patrick:

What should the McCain camp say? We have no chance? We are just running out the clock? LOL Cmon' people.

____________________

DTM:

To summarize what I have been reading about New Hampshire:

McCain and New Hampshire, after a long and happy relationship, have gotten a divorce over McCain's fling with Palin. She just isn't their sort of Republican, and it killed his chances.

____________________

Mike A.:

Can anyone tell me why RCP has today in PA 53-43 from Morning Call and the website has 54-41 for today?

____________________

ricbrig:

@NW Patrick: I was posting the same comment. Of course they have to keep people motivated

____________________

SoloBJ:

@Mike A.
54-41 (+13) was yesterday's poll result. Obama is +10 today in that poll.

____________________

hou04:

NEW MEXICO just turned DARK BLUE on the map! :)

____________________

McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

@mirrorball

I am telling you man, the McCain camp is so good at spin that they might challenge the election's outcomes on Nov 4th by stating that they don't match their internal polls
Pathetic! :-)

____________________

Batony:

If you guys think Surveyusa was accurate in 2004 check out Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision...I am really amazed how accurate they were.

____________________

sunnymi:

@SmarterThanYou "But then again Obama is going back to Iowa today, so maybe its somewhere in the middle."

I do not think Obama went to IA today because it was close....he was supposed to be at Des Moines last week Thu/Fri when he left to Hawaii to be with his ailing grandmother....I think he is making up for that since this state probably has a special place in his heart as the one that propelled him as a force to reckon with in this election..I have also heard that he wanted to stay in close proximity to Chicago today as he has plans to go "trick or treating" with his daughters.

He will be flying to Las Vegas after that and stay the night there for a rally tomorrow morning.

____________________

orange24:

Very curious comment by Davis. Iowa certainly doesn't look even:

SurveyUSA 10/28 - 10/29 658 LV 3.9 55 40 Obama +15
Marist 10/23 - 10/24 645 LV 4.0 52 42 Obama +10
Rasmussen 10/23 - 10/23 700 LV 4.0 52 44 Obama +8
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/22 - 10/23 625 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11

____________________

Hope Reborn:

New Arizona Numbers


Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

Full Cross Tabs

____________________

Thatcher:

@MikeA and SoloBJ:

At the bottom right of Morning Call's homepage is 53-43 http://www.mcall.com/news/elections/all-election-president,0,155695.htmlpage

But their political blogger is still stating yesterday's number (54-41)on his post for today: http://blogs.mcall.com/capitol_ideas/2008/10/morning-polling.html

That is what is causing a little confusion

____________________

bmrKY:

Research 2000 Arizona
McCain 48
Obama 47

The race is TIGHTENING... in Arizona!

:)

____________________

BrookLynda:

PPP O + 17 sends NM dark blue!

Ooh snap!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Guys there is a serious problem for McCain in several states with early voter turnout. This generally favors Republicans. Rick Davis will say anything he can to try and ignite the base. If Obama loses Iowa or the race for that matter it WILL BE the largest polling COLLAPSE in US History. UNLIKELY.

____________________

orange24:

Can anyone tell me why RCP has today in PA 53-43 from Morning Call and the website has 54-41 for today?

Morning Call does have it at O+10:

http://www.mcall.com/all-pres-widgetlist,0,3165119.htmlstory

Muhlenburg is the one that has it 54-41. I thought they were the same too, but I guess they're different...

____________________

JCK:

Just wow on AZ.

I guess this is the tightening that everyone has been talking about for the last couple weeks.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Anyone have the link to the new AZ poll?

____________________

hirshnoc:

McCain strategy is to win PA and then win NH. That is all they need. Not like it's gonna happen, but that is theoretically "all they need."

____________________

miatch:

I'm a new yorker who is proud to see where NJ is here. NJ is NY's more conservative dorky sibling, and it was considered a toss up way back when.

____________________

drdr:

Obama is going to Iowa because he is on his way home to IL to visit is family. The media reports are quite clear about this. There is no independent polling to suggest that IA is still one of the most competitive states.

Rick Davis is starting to sound like Baghdad Bob, but to be fair, he is just doing his job. And McCain has to campaign somewhere. He can't just go back to Arizona and give up, can he?


____________________

RussTC3:

It was done for Daily Kos, NW Patrick. Here's the link:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/11279/222/947/647893

The more interesting stat is they polled a hypothetical McCain/Napolitano matchup:

Napolitano 53
McCain 45

____________________

Atomique:

I'm a New Yorker too, and I'm proud to have helped make New Hampshire the deep shade of blue that it is today.

____________________

oicu:

This is the time when campaigns start lying their heads off about what their polls say. Even if they are 20 points down they will say their polls show them neck and neck.

____________________

Batony:

Last polling for AZ in 2004:

SurveyUSA | 10/28-30 599 LV 4.1 56 41 - Bush +15
Rasmussen | 10/26 500 LV 4.5 50 45 - Bush +5
KAET/ASU | 10/19-10/21 LV 4.1 49 42 - Bush +7


Final Result: Bush 55% Kerry 44%

____________________

RussTC3:

It was done for Daily Kos, NW Patrick. Here's the link:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/11279/222/947/647893

The more interesting part of the release though is that they polled a hypothetical McCain/Napolitano for the 2010 Senate seat:

Napolitano 53
McCain 45

____________________

mago:

@Patrick

I understand they can't throw in the towel, but you and I both know that their numbers do not show them dead even in Iowa.

This statement by Davis is a lie, plain and simple. I don't like lies and I don't like liars.

____________________

Batony:

Latest Poll results for Iowa in 2004:

SurveyUSA | 10/29-11/1 519 LV 4.4 47 50 - Kerry +3
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 45 50 - Kerry +5
FOX News | 10/30-31 700 LV 3.0 48 44 1 Bush +4
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/29-31 801 LV 3.0 49 46 1 Bush +3
SurveyUSA | 10/28-30 661 LV 3.9 49 49 - TIE
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/27-30 LV 4.0 48 46 - Bush +2
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 49 44 - Bush +5
DM Register | 10/25-10/29 806 LV 3.5 45 48 1 Kerry +3
Research 2000 | 10/25-10/27 600 LV 4.0 49 48 1 Bush +1
ARG | 10/25-10/27 600 LV 4.0 48 47 1 Bush +1
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/25-27 801 LV 3.0 49 46 1 Bush +3
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/23-26 649 LV 4.0 50 46 - Bush +4

Final Results: Bush 50% Kerry 49%

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I find it interesting that campaigns talk about internal polling like its some better method. All these other pollsters are putting their reputation on the line with their numbers but the internal polling is supposed to be the one that's accurate?

____________________

BrookLynda:

Very bad data today for McPlaincrash: BHO's numbers are much more solid, Palin is killing him, look what happens when Barr and Nader are factored in: O +1, M -1.

Growing Doubts on Palin Take a Toll, Poll Finds

"All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month.

- Mr. Obama is maintaining his lead, with 51 percent of likely voters supporting him and 40 percent supporting Mr. McCain in a head-to-head matchup.

- The survey found that opinions of Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain had hardened considerably, as 9 out of 10 voters who said they had settled on a candidate said their minds were made up, and a growing number of them called it “extremely important” that their candidate win the election.

- When likely voters were asked whom they would vote for in an expanded field that included several third-party candidates, Mr. Obama got the support of 52 percent of them, Mr. McCain 39 percent, Bob Barr 1 percent, and Ralph Nader 2 percent."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/us/politics/31poll.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Boomie, I know you're out there somewhere, we miss you. Sorry, I know it hurts.

____________________

RussTC3:

Here's a guess on how Davis "technically" wouldn't be wrong in what he's saying. Perhaps they have an internal poll showing Obama up by 10 with a MoE of +/-5%.

Let's say 52/42. Subtract 5 from Obama (47) and add 5 to McCain (47).

"Dead Heat".

LOL

____________________

MisterMagoo:

Oh God, Iowa is dead even ! Just as PA ! And we're on Halloween ???? Seriously guys, could it be worst ?

____________________

JCK:

@RussTC3

Does a certain former poster here work for the McCain campaign??

____________________

RussTC3:

My bad, that should read "dead even".

____________________

mrut:

@miatch

NJ is NY's conservative dorky sibling? That's the nicest thing I've ever heard a New Yorker say about New Jersey.

____________________

VonnegutIce9:

Latest Polls w/ House Effect Corrections

*LV & RV have been averaged
**Poll bias is split evenly between candidates
***Correct numbers in parentheses

Pollster House Effect Obama McCain

DailyKos O+2.5 51(49.75) 45(46.25)
ABC/WP O+1.75 52(51.20) 44(44.90)
Gallup O+0.75 51(50.25) 44(44.75)
Hotline None 50(50.00) 42(42.00)
Rasmussen M+0.5 51(51.50) 47(46.50)
Zogby M+1.5 50(51.50) 43(42.50)
GWU M+2.5 49(51.50) 45(42.50)
IBD/TIPP M+3.0 48(51.00) 44(41.00)

Corrected Averages:

Obama: 50.85
McCain: 43.80
Und: 05.35

****If Obama & McCain split undecideds, this would be the final outcome

Obama: 53.50
McCain: 46.50

Obama wins by margin of +7.0

____________________

carl29:

@Batony,

Everyone here knows that I am married to a Math PHD and I myself hold an Accounting degree(quite few math-oriented courses). Do you want to hear my husband's easy way to "predict" who is going to carry a state?

Get all the final polls a count those who have candidate Y and candidate X, don't pay attention the spread because it doesn't matter for this "experiment."

For example in Iowa in 2004:

Bush led or tied in 9 out of 12 polls in IA/ 75% possibility that he would carry the state.

Kerry led or tied in 4 out of 12 poll in IA/ a 33% possibility that he would carry the state.

Didn't my husband "theory" work? I love him; he makes things simple in a very smart way :-)

____________________

RussTC3:

@ JCK
I guess so. heh

Back to Arizona for a minute. While Obama hasn't been ahead in any poll out of Arizona (except for one Zogby Interactive one), the last eight polls (including the R2K one) have had the race at single digits.

Averaging them out, McCain is only up by about 4 points:
McCain 48.4
Obama 44.3

I can't believe that Arizona is close to becoming a toss up.

____________________

calwatch:

If Obama wanted to be near his home neighborhood in Chicago, though, he should be in Indiana, which is more competitive. So I think that there is some fear within Team Obama that Iowa voters won't deliver.

____________________

Trosen:

Same Rick Davis who sent out the post-primary PPP saying that California and NJ would be in play for them? Yea.. that guy.

____________________

carl29:

calwatch,

I think that he will in Indiana today as well in Iowa.

____________________

ctj:

BREAKING NEWS!!!

NEW JERSEY IS TIGHTENING!!!

Rick Davis will declare NJ "dead even" by tomorrow morning. Everyone be careful beacause California and New York will be in play by Monday and on election day Massachusetts and Vermont will be statistical dead heats!

____________________

mrut:

@calwatch

Not necessarily fear--they just want to play it safe. Why not, if it fits into Obama's trip west?

____________________

KMartDad08:

@mirrorball

You said Davis' quote was: "Our own data has us dead even in the state of Iowa,"

I think what he actually said was: "Our own data has us dead. Even in the state of Iowa."

____________________

Washingtonian1:

For those of you who are interested, Georgia has just updated its turnout statistics. I did the math and early voting turnout is already 53.3% of the 2004 Total Vote (early and election day). More significantly, African-American turnout is holding at 35%. If African-American turnout remains roughly where it is, Obama WILL carry the State of Georgia.

____________________

carl29:

@calwatch,

Des Moines, Iowa
Western Gateway Park
Gates Open: 9:30 am (CDT)
Program Begins: 11:30 am (CDT)

Highland, Indiana
Wicker Memorial Park
Gates Open: 6:00 pm (EDT)
Program Begins:7:30 pm (EDT
------------------------------------

Yes, Barack is maximizing his time by campaigning in the "neighborhood" :-)

____________________

JCK:

@carl29

One problem with your method:

There is a 108% chance that either Kerry or Bush would win...

:)

But I think it's a good starting point. Also, polls where one candidate is at or above 50% is also worth quite a bit.

____________________

NHBlue:

Taking the Palin test: I can see NH from where I sit--out every window! So it makes me a super-expert on the state.

I believe NH liked the old McCain (version 2000). I remember much enthusiasm for him then from people I knew across party lines. I haven't seen anything like it this time around. Even my uber-Republican brother is grumbling.

While NH has steadily moved away for what the GOP has become, McCain increasingly been identified with it. I think it's not so much that NH has abandoned the Republican party as the Republican party has abandoned itself.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I don't understand how exactly McCain will outspend Obama by 10mil. Is it just on TV ads since he cut back on GOTV?

____________________

oicu:

It's clear from what McCain's pollster McInturff says that they are basing their polling on an even or almost even party ID split. They dispute that there could possibly be a difference of 8% or 11% like some polls are showing.

They don't quote any evidence for this, they just assert that it must be so. "America's not like that", "This is a center-right country" etc.

But figures based on actual polling (e.g. Rasmussen, who polls all the time on this very matter) say they are wrong:

"Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. During the final two months of Election 2008, party weighting targets are updated each Sunday (see additional information). For polling data released during the week of October 26 to November 1, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated."

See http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_40_0_democrat_32_8_republican

____________________

NW Patrick:

From Nate at fivethirtyeight.com

McCain's Mountain of a Problem
Our model does not make any specific adjustments for early voting, but it is presenting a major problem for John McCain in three states in the Mountain West region, where Barack Obama has a huge fraction of his vote locked in.

In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What's worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald's turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004's total.

Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania. Even if McCain were to win the Keystone, however -- say that Philadelphia remains in a collective stupor from the Phillies' win and that there is some sort of Bradley Effect in the Alleghanies -- Obama has a pretty decent firewall in the form of Virginia and Nevada, which had already achieved 53 percent of its 2004 voting totals as of Wednesday, and where Democrats have a 23-point edge in ballots cast so far in Las Vegas's Clark County (and perhaps more impressively, a 15-point advantage in Reno's Washoe County, a traditionally Republican area). The Kerry states less Pennsylvania, but plus Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Virginia, total 270 electoral votes: an ugly, nail-biter of a win for Obama, but still one that would get him to 1600 Pennsylvania all the same.

____________________

RussTC3:

@ KMartDad08
Hah!!

Very clever. LOL

____________________

MDB1974:

GOTV. This thing is not over. Don't get cocky!

____________________

mirrorball:

Here's a nice response from Stan Greenberg to Bill McInturff's recent memo on the race. To long to post here, but here's the link.

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/10/greenberg_responds_to_mccain_p.php

and a sampling:

"All of us Greenberg Quinlan Rosner were in awe of the boldness of these assertions, as they, we are sure, honestly reflect the data, show a nuanced use of language and topics, and weave a story that almost gets to the conclusions that this race is opening up, unpredictable, and closing, without formally saying those things. What is interesting is that some of the findings match ours, but with a fuller picture, take us to a different close."

____________________

ricbrig:

using carl29's husband method and using RCP polls (so non affiliated) for NC. Obama has 5/7 to carry the state. 2/7 are actually tie. Well...

____________________

Trosen:

Get ready for it guys.. there WILL be a Fox poll showing McCain even or ahead before Tuesday.

____________________

sunnymi:


@calwatch:

After his rally that is currently going on in Des Moines, IA (it was rally from last week that got canceled due to his HI visit) he will go to Chicago, IL spend time with his family and get to the IN rally tonight at Highland @ 8:30PM..then he will be flying over to NV.

http://maps.google.com/help/maps/elections/#campaign_trail&utm_campaign=en&utm_source=en-ha-na-us-sk-mp&utm_term=mccain%20campaigns

____________________

ctj:

NW Patrick,

Do you realize with the analysis you just cited Obama has a plausible path to 270 without FL,OH,PA,NC,or IN? HOW COOL IS THAT!!!

____________________

KMartDad08:

Rick Davis: "We're a bit behind in D.C., but given our superior turn out operation, I believe we'll carry the District by a narrow margin."

Sorry I don't have a link, because he hasn't actually said it...yet.

____________________

SoloBJ:

@Trosen,
Is this a known fact or your personal thoughts?

____________________

PJ_FFM:

@calwatch

Not necessarily; BO would have to make a longer detour if he went to Indiana befor trick-or-treating with his kids back home, because before the stop in Iowa, he campaigned in Missouri...

____________________

radmod:

I forgot who said it but NH can be very important. If Obama does fail to win VA, but does win IA, then he needs either CO+NM, or CO+NH to win (assuming McCain wins the other Bush states). In fact, if Obama fails in VA and CO, NH becomes very important as Obama could still win with (IA+)NV+NM+NH.

Basically, come election night, if Obama is declared the winner in VA it's over, but especially if he's declared the winner in NH.

____________________

DecaturMark:

@Washingtonian1:
"If African-American turnout remains roughly where it is, Obama WILL carry the State of Georgia."

I agree with you. I live in GA and we are working hard to turn this state blue. We really want to rid ourselves of Chambliss. With a libertarian on the ballot, it looks like there will be run-off for the senate seat. If that happens this state will be awash with politicos from both sides.

____________________

sunnymi:


Here is the big picture analysis from PPP after their polls last night from CO, NM, MN, OR, MI and WV.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/big-picture-on-last-nights-polls.html

____________________

carl29:

ricbrig,

We have to wait for the final polls, but up to right now:

Politico/InAdv, Tie

Rasmussen, Obama +2

Civitas/TelOpinion (R), Obama +1

CNN/Time, Obama +6

National Journal/FD, Obama +4

FOX News/Rasmussen, McCain +1

PPP (D), Obama +1

Reuters/Zogby, Obama +4

Associated Press/GfK, Obama +2

NBC/Mason-Dixon, Tie

Rasmussen, McCain +2

WSOC-TV, Obama +2

Probability as to right now:

OBAMA

10 tied or leading out of 12 polls/ 83%

MCCAIN

4 tied or leading out of 12 polls/ 33%

____________________

lhtk:

What does Rasmussen plan to release today of relevance?

____________________

Trosen:

BJ, a guess.. but I'm almost willing to put money on it.

____________________

carl29:

lhtk,

Maybe he is running out of "good" news for McMaverick, and he doesn't want to disappoint the Rigth :-)

____________________

DecaturMark:

They said last night the the Fox/Opinion Dynamic poll would be their last National Poll that they release this year.

____________________

Dewey1858:

Is it me, or did NM just go dark blue?

____________________

PJ_FFM:

@ctj

You forget the prediction that the District of Columbia polls will turn over to McCain by next thursday... ;-)

____________________

Batony:

McCain has himself for his problem or Steve Schmidt:

You can blame Palin all you want, but she is the energy in the campaign and really probably the only reason he is competitive in some of these states.

McCain fatal flaw was to cancel his campaign and threaten to cancel the 1st debate. Everyone knew it was a stunt and didn't fall for it. That's when his numbers started to flatten. His debate performances, especially the last two were tough to watch. In the last he was average, but then fumbled over his closing statement. Honestly, I had no idea McCain was such a bad campaigner. Really tough to watch.

____________________

Trosen:

Can't disagree with much of that, Batony.

____________________

lhtk:

So carl29, are you saying that Rasmussen doesn't have any planned releases of key state polling later today?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Batony Palin was a horrible pick. Polls show it. But yes, McCain's 1st big decision = FAIL.

____________________

Thatcher:

I wanna see Arizona go yellow! post the dKos poll :)

____________________

JCK:

Anyone see this?

"We've already seen our own poll from Arizona showing a neck-and-neck race. Over the next couple of hours we'll release polls from Georgia and North Dakota showing similar results. This is the real deal, and we are well within reach of winning all three of these states."

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/124516/11/852/647996

____________________

jamesugw:

New Marist US poll -
O 50
M43

____________________

BrookLynda:

Palin was a Hobson's choice for McCain: it brought him the base (which he needed) but it cost him indies and Reagan Dems/Hillary holdouts (which he needed).

The question is: was there some choice other than Palin that could have galvanized the base as dramatically as she did but not alienated the swing voters?

Not Mitt. Not Rudy. Not Pawlenty. Not Huck.

Anybody?

____________________

Washingtonian1:

DecaturMark:

Absolutely. If the Senate race goes to a run-off (I think it will as well), Georgia will play host to a massive OT campaign. Obama, Clinton(s), and countless others will be criss-crossing the state. Needless to say, its an exciting time to be a Georgian.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I dont understand why people count election day when they say McCain has so and so days to turn it around. Is he gonna be at the polling locations campaigning or what?

____________________

Cho:

Wow Gallup!

____________________

Thatcher:

That Marist poll is an O+2 from end of September!

____________________

ricbrig:

I bet today's Gallups will not go on Drudge

____________________

DecaturMark:

Gallup up for O in all models!!

____________________

mysticlaker:

I can't even type the gallup numbers.

____________________

sunnymi:

Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Widens Some on All Bases

RV's: O+11
Traditional: O+8
Expanded: O+9

( above 50% in all models )


http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Widens-Some-All-Bases.aspx

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Somebody get Drudge some Kleenex because Gallup has let him down once more.

____________________

Michael:

Gallup gains for Obama across the board:

Registered voters:

Obama 52 (+2)
McCain 41 (-1)


Traditional LVs:

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 43 (-2)

Expanded LVs:

Obama 52 (+1)
McCain 43 (-1)

Is this really right where McCain wants the race to be the Friday before the election?

____________________

hou04:

Our next President SKYROCKETING on GALLUP!!!

CBS/NYT, Pew, all confirmed now!

____________________

Dewey1858:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that -3 day in Trad. and Exp. LV doesn't roll off the back end until tomorrow, right?

____________________

zoot:

Batony, Palin brought energy but at a price McCain couldn't afford. He knew he had to run to the center to win, but decided to risk losing moderate support by throwing some red meat to the mouth breathers in the hope that he could step around it later on. This of course assumed that he even knew what he was getting into; there's substantial evidence to the contrary.

Anyway,you just can't do that. It's like mating a zebra and an elephant. Large blocs of the voting population, and not just hard core Dems or 'liberals', want someone who acts like an adult to run the show, and you can't recover from a screw up like that. She's too radical for the center, and palpably unprepared. Anecdotal evidence is worse than speculation, but I can tell you that in NH large groups of Indies and Repubs have walked away from his campaign largely because of that.

BTW, the Survey NH numbers look a little funky. I think Obama's number is correct, maybe a little over-stated, but no way that Shaheen is doing as well against Sununu as Obama is against McCain. A lot of people who have bolted McCain will still vote for Sununu.

____________________

MDB1974:

Gallup

RV 11
Likely Exp 9
Likely Trad 8

____________________

cambridge blue:

Breaking on Drudge. McCain hack Rick Davis says new Gallup data shows national race dead even.

____________________

masselo:

Obama is up by 8 points(LV) in the new gallup poll -- i guess the Obama Infocommercial is kicking in--- LOL

____________________

ctj:

On the AZ poll how is R2k rated on the polling scale? I just can't believe it is within one point! Truth be told I want McCain to win AZ that is the one thing I will route for him on. I really did used to admire McCain for his independence and honesty and it is tragic what has happened to him. Where is that guy from 2000 and before? The true "Maverick" who was a conservative but principled, a fighter but not an idealogue. Where is that John McCain?

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

GREAT GALLUP NUMBERS...LET'S FINISH STRONG...GOTV...GOTV!!!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Maybe I'm dead wrong but HUCK would have been a better pick for McCain. Hell..I hate his stances but I even like the guy on a personality level and I'm a raging liberal.

____________________

bmrKY:

Is this what they meant by tightening?

LOL.

____________________

RussTC3:

I actually would have liked for Gallup to stay steady until about Sunday/Monday.

After all, they will likely come back down, and then people will be talking about how the race is tightening, when it's just noise.

Oh well.

____________________

Thatcher:

Thank you Gallup.

This is what I have been talking about the last 4 days - that every 11 days or so we see a "tightening" (or better yet, a "market correction" for all you stock market types) and then numbers starting to go back up.

Remember, incumbent parties/candidates do not normally pick up the undecideds - the challenging parties/candidates do. The only difference in this election compared to others with incumbents/challengers - is that the challenger was already leading at the beginning of October.

____________________

Marcus:

WOW ... those Gallup numbers just killed any chance of a McCain comeback ... WOW !

____________________

sunnymi:


More from Gallup:


Thursday night's interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama's widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.


Obama's current 11-point lead over McCain among all registered voters -- 52% to 41% -- is up from an eight-point lead in yesterday's report, and ties his highest advantage on this basis, last recorded 10 days ago.


Obama's favorable position among traditional likely voters in the latest polling is partially reflective of his strong position among all registered voters. However, at other times when Obama has led McCain by 11-points among registered voters, his likely voter advantage has been lower than it is now, in the five- to seven-point range. Thus, Obama's improved likely voter standing also reflects a higher turnout propensity for his supporters than what Gallup has seen at earlier times this month. This could stem from the superiority his well-funded campaign appears to have over the McCain campaign in contacting his supporters to get out and vote.

____________________

ricbrig:

@mystic I had the same problem. When I saw those -2% red arrows all over McCain's label I had a 'Gallup Shock'!

After recovering I must rememebr what Nate on 538 said. That Gallup is probably too sensitive to news cycle. Anyway all good for the morale.

____________________

REPOST:

I posted this on the story about undecideds here on Pollster.com. I'll repost here where there's a bit more discussion. What do you all think?

----

I think inserting that many undecideds into a poll does two things:

1_ It allows the pollster to cover their a** on election day.

2_ It allows, in the event of a McCain upset (stolen), for an argument as to why McCain won (stole) the election.

NO way that in this year's election, the importance and intensity of it, that there are that many undecideds. Just no way. This is not a traditional election.

____________________

KMartDad08:

Once again, Gallup leads the way in spotting early trends. Rasmussen will soon follow. Of course, we know Obama's numbers will go down a bit over the weekend as Dems leave their houses and live their lives, while Pubs stay in to nurse their wounds. But this gives us a little breathing room.

____________________

Cho:

@ctj:

R2k has a slight democratic lean in the state polls.

____________________

Disco Stu:

WOW...GALLUP JUST CAME OUT WITH A MAJOR SWING TOWARDS OBAMA!!
RV: O-52, M-41 +11 (+3 towards O)
LV (Expanded): O-52, M-43 +9 (+2 towards O)
LV (Traditional): O-51, M-43 +8 (+3 towards O)

I think the combination of the Obamercial and the Obama-Clinton rally REALLY hit it out of the park, and was picked up with Thursday's Gallup polling.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Gallup is also showing 24% already voted and 10% will before Tuesday.

____________________

DTM:

There is plenty of evidence about the effect Palin has had on McCain's chances in various poll questions, and it is quite clear she has become a net detriment. Yes, she has "energy" and generates enthusiasm among certain Republicans, but she has turned off far more voters McCain needed to win.

By the way, I think it is quite likely McCain's "suspension" stunt was related to the Palin pick. Recall, this was the same period in which the horrific Couric interviews were trickling out, and he proposed rescheduling the first debate for the same night as the VP debate, and postponing the VP debate indefinitely.

____________________

Trosen:

Ok guys.. it's very hard not for me to say, unequvically.. "it's over." but now.. we've got Gallup's "traditional" model, assuming AA and young voters will mirror 2004.. and even there it's a 7 point cushion.. The fat lady, I believe, is definitely warming up.

____________________

paradski:

it looks like that good McCain day fell off and was replaced by a very good Obama.

____________________

mysticlaker:

In honor of our friend:

Statistical tie by Sunday in Gallup...Mark my words.

____________________

Batony:

@Brooklynda:

You are correct. No one would have galvanize the base like Palin.

McCain wanted to chose Ridge, but the radical right couldn't take his abortion stance.

So the only reason the right will be upset with a McCain lost is b/c Palin will lose along with him.

Oh did I mention how dumb it was for the McCain camp to ignore Va as long as they did? Did they notice the Dem primaries at all?

____________________

Thatcher:

@Working Class:

1) I would say there might be some of that - but in these days of IVR - I am sure it's that you don't have a human asking "which way do you lean" ... so the impersonal IVR lends to allowing more people to stay undecided rather than lean.

2) This one I have to disagree on.

____________________

RussTC3:

I actually would have liked for Gallup to stay steady until about Sunday/Monday.

After all, they will likely come back down, and then people will be talking about how the race is tightening, when it's just noise.

Looking at the polls again this morning, we have a low range (Obama +4-7) and a high range (Obama +8-11).

Average those out, and we likely have a race at around Obama +6-9. That's a little higher than it was a few days ago.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Keep this in mind folks. We haven't had HARD date like we have this year in polling with SO MANY early voting. More and more states add early voting each election cycle. Feeling better?:)

____________________

Dewey1858:

Let's not lose sight of what we were all telling ourselves a couple or three days ago: it's the state polls that matter (not that I wouldn't like a little mo.)

____________________

BrookLynda:

Trosen: sure, but I prefer to look at the states: these latest numbers in CO, NM and PA seem insurmountable for Mac, meaning he could take OH, VA and FL and still lose.

That said - no complacency, people! I'm going to PA to GOTV, suggest you all do what you can!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Dewey1858 yes and state polls have been lookin' good!

____________________

maddiekat:

I like when the media keeps saying the race is getting closer. VOTE!!!!!!!

____________________

Cho:

I have to say the 17% for McCain to be next Pres on Intrade are very high right now, really good value in shorting this in my opinion.

____________________

SoloBJ:

@RussTC3,
Nice to see those numbers in Gallup but I agree with you. We will more than likely see that lead "tighten" by Monday but with only 4 more days to Election Day, I doubt it will tighten that much barring some crazy event taking place.

National numbers overall look great for Obama today but I'm still worried about PA.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

R2K Poll from AZ

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

DA link

____________________

Thatcher

The article was stating that pollsters aren't inserting ENOUGH undecideds at this point and suggests that they should. I'm saying that I don't believe that there are 10-12% undecideds at this point and that the only reason I think a pollster would put that high of a number in is so that they can CYA on election day should the result not be what people are expecting. And then the more cynical side of me thinks another reason to insert that many undecideds is so that if the GOP steals the election they can go back and say hey look, 3 days before the election, according to the polls, there were 12% undecided, we just happen to get the vast majority of those undecideds because McCain's economic message must have really hit home at the end, yada yada yada.

Anyway, thanks for your response. :)

____________________

Observer:

Looks like Gallop has picked up a bounce from the informercial. I wonder why Rasmussen has not, or perhaps that was in their figures yesterday.

____________________

Batony:

No race is over til it's over. With that said ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore, Mark Warner's doormat to the Senate here in Virginia was greeting voters heading to work at one of the metro stops this morning. In a way I felt kind of sorry for him...he seems like a nice guy, but really never had a shot. And although he's 30 points down, he was still out there working. You have to admire that.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Batony that is admirable for sure.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Whatever happened today will be one of the last going into the tracking models. Even if closes, having strong Obama day in the final 3 days is important. It shows his electoral position and keeps the other side on defense.

There is enough anxiety to keep everyone motivated (see nov 2000-nov 2008) - this is good, no matter how you spin it.

____________________

RussTC3:

@ Observer
They didn't pick up a bounce from the infomericial:

Thursday night's interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama's widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.

Strong McCain days are just falling off and Obama is staying steady.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Working Class

Ahhh ... I see ... I hadn't fully read the article you were talking about (I didn't notice a link)

If a pollster isn't getting leanings (which, in reality would be inserting enough undecideds) but I don't think that it means they are CYAing ... honestly.

____________________

JerryTheAngel:

JUST RELEASED National Gallup daily tracking Poll: Among Registered Voters, Obama +11, Among traditional likely voters, Obama +8, Among expanded likely voters, Obama +9. Zogby, Obama +7. N

____________________

Trosen:

the only thing I don't like is you still have about 5% undecided. but even then.. let's say 1 goes to 3d party. 1 goes to Obama. 3 to McCain. Still looks like a potential landslide.


As for Palin.. not sure who could have done much better for McCain at this point.

when he made the choice, polls were basically where they are now.. McCain down 7,8,9 points and no energy or enthusiams in the cmapaign. Palin certainly brought that?

Tom Ridge? Might have helped some in PA and OH. But hardly brings much "excitement" to the ticket.

Huckabee? Certianly would have fired up the evangelicals, but a lot of other conservatives HATE Huckabee, as he is actually quite moderate on health care, Iraq, and the economy. Not to mention adding Huckabee and you could forget about swinging any Hillary voters.

Pawlenty? Still wouldn't help carry MN and WI, might have made them close.. but if he couldn't assuredly turn them, what would the point be?

Jindal? Yea right.. Hard to try to convince rural America to fear a dark-skinned guy with a funny name and then put one on your own ticket.

Lieberman? would have been the instant death of the ticket, and the GOP was right to veto that, which might have actually been McCain's 1st choice.

____________________

Thatcher

Right on, thanks for the viewpoint. That's what I love about this site is being able to throw something out there that I'm thinking and have people give me feedback about it. Thanks.

____________________

lhtk:

What is to worry about PA?? NO. WAY. Too many polls have it too high of a margin for Obama. Period. I'm a worrier, but not here.

Thank you, Gallup. Yes, it's the state polling that matters, but there is "some" kind of relationship between the two.

____________________

Thatcher:

So ... here's something that is to be thought about:

Through October 29 - Gallup had 21% in their polls saying they had already voted and Obama leads them 55-40. Another 10% planned to vote before E-day. Of those who were planning to vote ON E-day - Obama led 48-45.

As of today's numbers, Gallup has 24% in their polls saying they already voted.

In order for McCain to catch up to Obama (leaving 5% in as "others' from the 55-40 numbers above) - McCain would need to lead them by about 5%. And yet, he is behind by at least a spread of 3% of those planning to vote on E-day.

____________________

hou04:

RCP is cheating on Obama's average again! If you add up all 11 polls they are currently using to calculate their average, it adds up to 72.

72/11= 6.54

Yet, the put 6.4

____________________

sunnymi:


If you look at the RV's on Gallup the race has been remarkably steady for the last 3 weeks (51-41; 51-41; 51-42).

The only fluctuation has been among the LV's, especially the traditional model. Since no one knows the exact turnout model we can attribute the fluctuation to this modeling.

____________________

JCK:

hou04,

Are you weighting each Gallop poll at 0.5 (vs. 1 for everything else)?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Of the 11 most recent National polls 4 of them state the race is at O + 3 or 4 and 7 show 7+.
Hmmmm.... :)

____________________

zotz:

hou04-
They give different weights to the polls. They are not all equal.

____________________

MDB1974:

How is this still a race? Take a look at McCains campaign.

1. He followed the lowest rated president in history.

2. The war he supports in unpopular

3. The economic strategies he supports are a disaster

4. He picked the most unpopular VP in recent history.

5. He is on his 3rd campaign manager

6. He is 72 and has had cancer

7. Obama has run what some consider to be the best campaign ever

8. Obama has tremendously outspent McCain

9. Obama is better liked, considered more stable and more capable by a majority of voters.

YET: It's not over. At best it will be a 4-6 point win. Just goes to show the foothold ideology has taken in the American electorate. We are dealing with and increasingly fundamentalist element on the right willing to compromise almost anything to uphold their "moral" views.

____________________

MDB1974

I couldn't agree more. Thanks for the post.

____________________

Observer:

hou04

Are you counting both Gallop figures because RCP only count an average of the two.

____________________

NW Patrick:

MDB1974 - N E W S F L A S H BREAKING NEWS!

Shhhh Obama is BLACK!

____________________

DTM:

What appears to have happened in Gallup is more an unusually bad day for Obama rolling off than an unusually good day rolling on.

But I think the real story is the gradual convergence of the traditional model on the expanded model, and both on the registered voter numbers, as early voting progresses. To slightly oversimplify, I think what is happening is that the early voting is converting a disproportionate number of new voters to actual voters and thus getting them past the traditional screen. And obviously these new voters favor Obama, as was predictable already, but the fact that they are actually voting was not as predictable. Conversely, McCain's marginal voters (people with a history of voting but who are not very enthusiastic this time) are not showing up in as high a proportion as the traditional model originally assumed.

Of course all this is subject to change on Election Day and undoubtedly there is a lot of time-shifting in Obama's numbers (people who were already likely voters for Election Day voting early), but the bottomline is that as early voting progresses more and more uncertainty about whether Obama's new voters will turn out is being removed. And given current voter preference that should be enough for Obama, whether or not McCain's less enthusiastic supporters eventually do show up.

____________________

pbcrunch:

Hey, have you guys/girls played around with the national numbers much on this site? If you set the sensitivity to high, you can see a definite pattern since about mid-September in terms of peaks/valleys.

Obama has, of course, been trending upwards since that time and he seems to hit a (progressively higher) peak every 12 days or so with a (also progressively higher) valley halfway in between. I think we can safely say Obama's last valley bottomed out Wednesday, maybe yesterday. Which, of course, means his last peak will hit exactly on Nov. 4th...

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

@ sunnymi

"Since no one knows the exact turnout model we can attribute the fluctuation to this modeling."

Pardon me but that's the most unrational thing I've heard since boom got punted (thanks, Mark!). I should say, if we have no idea how the model works, we don't know if it's a real change, due to the model, or stat. noise. Even if we did know how the model worked we probably wouldn't be able to tell.

I just thought about this again and maybe what you meant is that the flucuation only occurs with the modeling so that the LV samples must be fluctuating more. Not that we know why but it's only in the modeled numbers.

____________________

lhtk:

Is +11 for Obama on Gallup's RV the second to the highest for him? I was thinking his high-water mark was +12. Pretty nice, anyway.

____________________

oicu:

@Trosen:

McCain might have done better with Romney. I was very surprised when he didn't pick him.

____________________

Thatcher:

@pbcrunch:

Yup - I've been saying that for the last 4-5 days - there is an obvious cycle of Obama's lead over the past month.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Rasmussen has new Senate polls out:

Oregon Senate: Merkley 49% Smith 46%

Georgia Senate: Chambliss 48% Martin 43%

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I just saw some McCain aide on MSNBC talking about a new poll out showing New Mexico tied. I assume its a lie but did we miss one somewhere?

____________________

Thatcher:

Yeah Oregon --- Boo Georgia :(

My hope is the extraordinary turnout in Georgia is pulling Martin closer to Chambliss than the polls are showing.

____________________

masselo:

i have a feeling that Romney doesnt want Mccain to win the election- i cant blame him for that - cause make hates him and made the guy look stupid --

____________________

Batony:

@OICU:

The housing comment killed the Romney pick...probably. Plus the bigots who supported the fake Mike Huckabee would have stayed home. And McCain couldn't stand Romney.

With all that being said, I think McCain only has to blame himself for his campaign faltering. To let Obama gain traction in Virginia is inexcuseable. I pass McCain headquarters everyday. Yet he couldn't make an appearance in the state....nevermind.

I guess this is another reason for McCain to hope. http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-changeable-voters;_ylt=AnQflU3rGMuCq9FxPlYauR.s0NUE

____________________

SoloBJ:

oicu,
It was said a few times on MSNBC, CNN, etc that Romney would probably have been a better pick but apparently McCain and him aren't the best of friends to put it nicely so there weren't high expectations that McCain would pick him.

____________________

pbcrunch:

@Thatcher:

Sorry, I'm slow :).

____________________

WebToe:

Pro:

It is the bogus ASU poll of 200 people over a month. It looks as if it was a school project that they published for exposure.

____________________

asquared:

There is ASU poll that came out last night that has NM tied, I saw it on the MSNBC crawl.

____________________

hou04:

GEORGIA

McCain 47
Obama 44

Already voted:

Obama 55
McCain 40

____________________

Adam:

@Trosen:

I think Pawlenty was his best shot. Yeah, MN would be hard to flip, but at least there'd be a chance; whereas in the electoral vote count, Palin offers ZERO help.

Pawlenty has a lot of Palin's helpful qualities: youngish, attractive, fairly conservative, evangelical Christian, a governor (so, "executive" experience, whatever that means). But he's a hell of a lot smarter than Palin, and has a record of working with a Democratic legislature.

I'm not saying Pawlenty would have handed McCain the win, but he certainly wouldn't have tarnished McCain's legacy like Caribou Barbie has.

____________________

NW Patrick:

From what I've heard about the NM tied poll. Sample 200. 3 weeks old! LOL FAIL!

____________________

Dewey1858:

@Pro-America_Anti-America:
I just saw some McCain aide on MSNBC talking about a new poll out showing New Mexico tied. I assume its a lie but did we miss one somewhere?

Would that be the whacky ASU poll from this morning?


____________________

mac7396:

Wow, this site just isn't the same without random postings of the latest crap that Drudge is slinging. And by not the same, I mean better.

____________________

Batony:

I just checked the McCain-Palin calendar...Mitt Romney at a get out the vote rally in Indiana? Indiana? Shouldn't he be in Nevada or Colorado? Ok he is in Nevada today.

That's another problem for McCain, no surrogates. Poor Palin...they have her making 5 stops tomorrow in three different states.

____________________

Opus600:

A point of view from a blue dot in a red state...

This race was over when the McCain camp announced they were going to win by concentrating on Pennsylvania. They knew at that moment that McCain had no shot at winning and the decision was made to do everything they could to save the down-ballot races. By focusing on one state, they've been able to convince the media and others to focus on that too. After doing everything but buying a house there, McCain has managed to drag the poll numbers down a few points, but ONLY in PA.

What happened? The buzz now is the race is "tightening." Everyone on the boards knows that's not true, but the general public keeps hearing "tightening." The idea is to convince the GOP base and leaners to get out and vote. If McCain looks to lose in a landslide and those voters stay home, this train wreck of a campaign for the GOP will turn even uglier.

As it stands right now, Democrats are poised to get 58 seats in the Senate. The House is the GOP's worst case scenerio and nothing they can do will save that. But, when McCain announced they were going to win PA and win the election, Democrats were even or ahead in enough Senate races to reach 60. Since the announcement and the "tightening," two of those races have tipped back to red.

How do we know the race is over and McCain knows it? Let's suppose that McCain DOES win PA. What then? What good is winning there if he loses Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia? McCain HAS to carry NC, Ohio and VA, plus Florida and Missouri, even if he wins PA. He's behind in all of those states, and it's looking more and more like Virginia and Ohio are out of his reach. His reaction to this is to pretty much ignore those states. He can't lose any two of them to win the Presidency, even if he wins PA. His campaign has to know this, yet they are writing off Virginia, NC and Missouri. (I think they've given up on Ohio too, but it's close enough to PA to let him bleed over.)

So, all the bluster and bravado from McCain and his "internals" is just to boost turnout for the down-ticket races. He HAS to get the base and leaners out to vote or the damage done in the House and Senate might take 20 years to reverse.

On that note, I am proud to be able to witness George W. Bush single-handedly dismantling of the GOP. 8 years ago, the Democrats were in disarray and the GOP was winning every open seat. In less than 8 years, George W. Bush has:
1) Lost control of both houses of Congress by margins not seen since before Reagan.
2) Turned voter party affiliation completely to the Democrats. (Those young voters that Obama has won will be voting for Democrats for the next 20 years much as the Reagan Democrats voted Republican for 20 years.)
3) Sternly guided an economy that dealt the last fatal blow to Reaganomics.
4) Single-handedly made "trickle-down economics" a dirty word.
5) Turned the party of "fiscal responsibility" into the party that "spends like drunken sailors."

And so much more...

Thank you, Mr. President. You have been able to do what every Democrat in the past 27 years has been unable to do: defeat Reagan.

Now, back to my hidey-hole before someone finds out there actually are Democrats south of the Mason Dixon line.

____________________

Scribo:

@BrookLinda,

"The question is: was there some choice other than Palin that could have galvanized the base as dramatically as she did but not alienated the swing voters?"

Huckabee somewhat. Not as galvanizing, but respectable to the base and not nearly as threatening to center and right-of-center independents.

As an Obama supporter, the choice that would have scared me was Lieberman. The margin in some core red states would be smaller than it is now, but we would also be seeing red in some yellow places and yellow in states that are now blue. McCain-Lieberman would be running stronger, if not leading, in FL, NH, PA, OH, CO, and this race would look much different.

The Palin pick was critical. It was really the first time curious independents got a look at what McCain 2008 was going to be, and they didn't like what they saw.

I think on Wednesday we will see McCain as a guy who went the wrong direction when he had to choose which way to jump on a splitting iceberg. His critical error was in choosing to run to the base, an increasingly isolated and marginalized segment of the populace (at least this year).

The problem in siding with ideologues of any stripe is that there is no going back; to hold their loyalty you must continually conform to their expectations, thereby further antagonizing the center. Any deviation can cost you their support, and then you are really in trouble.

____________________

GeorgiaHoo:

Could also be referring to the poll that shows Obama crushing McCain in NM among folks who already voted but fairly close among those who haven't voted yet.

____________________

DTM:

Looking at the charts there does appear to be some sort of cycle, but of course that could just be a random occurrence. And the odd thing about this cycle is that its period doesn't line up with anything in particular (e.g., if it had a seven-day period it might have been a weekend effect). So, I personally am sticking with the random explanation, at least until someone comes up with a plausible hypothesis about why such an effect should be happening.

____________________

1magine:

Gallup is mostly noise - as are all Nat polls at this time - just ignore them. It is only the state polls that matter, and they are holding steady - some minor movements in each direction but nothing near enough to move anything in 3 days.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Well, the good thing about the GA Senate race is that there is a Libertarian on the ballot and he is pulling anywhere from 5% to 7%. And GA law requires a majority (50% +1) to win the seat, so we will probably have a run-off. I know both sides will fight for this seat in December if that is the case.

____________________

NW Patrick:

This serves the point about McCain's supposed "INTERNALS". They are jumping all over a NM poll that started sampling in LATE SEPTEMEBER for like 3 weeks with a 200 sample showing tied. And they are all over it. THEY HAVE TO TRY TO KEEP THE BASE HOPEFUL. If they don't show up they are screwed.

____________________

faithhopelove:

UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL


Obama ~
Fri.: IA, IL, IN
Sat.: NV, CO, MO
Sun.: OH
Mon.: FL, NC, VA

Biden ~
Fri.: OH
Sat.: IN, OH
Sun.: FL
Mon.: PA

Bill Clinton ~
Sat.: WV
Sun.: NH

Hillary ~
Fri.: OH
Sat.: FL
Sun.: KY; VA

Gore ~
Fri.: FL

Kerry ~
Sat.: NH

(Note that come election day, Obama will have had a heavy hitter in FL for 8 consecutive days, from October 27 through November 3.)


McCain ~
Fri. ~ OH
Sat. ~ VA, PA
Sun. ~ PA
Mon. ~ NH, PA, NV, AZ

Palin ~
Fri. ~ PA
Sat. ~ FL, NC, VA
Sun. ~ OH
Mon. ~ IA, NV

____________________

Thatcher:

@Batony -

What can you do with Romney? Yeah, Nevada and Colorado might be better for him - but his true states of "strength" are in states that are either strong Obama or strong McCain.

____________________

mysticlaker:

I just heard McCain on msnbc say

"It's a statistical tie..."

I almost died laughing.

____________________

GeorgiaHoo:

I heard that too. I assumed he was confused. Maybe he means that awesome Fox poll from yesterday.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@mysticlaker

The funnier part is I saw him at a rally with Rudy Giuliani today. The man who was constantly telling people his internal polls in Florida were showing him doing well.

____________________

SoloBJ:

McCain/Palin have four more stops they will make in PA. I'd rather see Obama in PA than in MO. Doesn't look like the Clintons will be making any stops in PA either. OK, OK... I'll get off of my PA soapbox for today. :)

____________________

Batony:

@Faithhopelove:

This is it? I thought McCain was suppose to hit Missouri again? No Indiana, New Mexico or Colorado? Wow...No Florida after Saturday? IOWA AGAIN??

McCain ~
Fri. ~ OH
Sat. ~ VA, PA
Sun. ~ PA
Mon. ~ NH, PA, NV, AZ

Palin ~
Fri. ~ PA
Sat. ~ FL, NC, VA
Sun. ~ OH
Mon. ~ IA, NV


____________________

straight talk:

@HEllo Everyone

It is amazing to see all of the OBama Supporters eat up the 2 polls showing tightening in PA and the McCain talking points.

Here is the problem the early voting is showing deeper problems for the McCain Camp! Remember that enthusiasm gap? Obama voters are going out and voting now! Middle class Voters!
(always reliable votes)

McCAIN has to get that base out drobes are there could be some upsets and very red states like GA and NC! ARIZONA?

It is about the GOTV now! And right now the internal polls of the O camp are confirmed in the early voting pattern for the dems!


____________________

faithhopelove,

Thanks for the schedules.

Interesting.

I think PA is the key for McCain. Without it, nothing else matters.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR