New Mexico 10/12-13/08; 568 LV, 4.2%
Obama 52, McCain 45
Sen: Udall (D) 58, Pearce (R) 40
South Carolina 10/12-13/08; 561 LV, 4.2%
McCain 55, Obama 41
Sen: Graham (R) 56, Conley (D) 40
Washington 10/12-13/08; 544 LV, 4.3%
Obama 56, McCain 40
Gov: Gregoire (D) 48, Rossi (R) 47
16 points in Washington? I like that! Only 7 in NM? seems like a thin margin by comparison.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:28 AM
You like all these polls that when averaged together with no margin of error have Obama up by 8%? Do you think that will help McCain win? Or maybe his completely dysfunctional campaign looks like a well managed one(OBAMA'S!!) Maybe you will blame Obama for every black politician, since of course in your mind, they all speak for him?
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:34 AM
Wow...the Senate seat in WA is really really tight.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:35 AM
NM number seems in line with most of the recent polling. Dems do have a significant voter registration advantage in the state -- something like D-50% R-32% -- but Bush carried the state by 6,000 votes in 2004, and Gore carried it by just 400 in 200. Republicans can and do win in the state (congressional delegation is 3 Republicans, 2 Democrats).
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:36 AM
Senate seat in WA? That's for governor.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:44 AM
The govener's race is always really(!) tight in Washington. Rossi has some really good ads.
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:57 AM
InAdv WV Obama -2
Posted on October 15, 2008 10:59 AM
In the context of the past few years, both the WA and NM leads are impressive for the Democratic candidate.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:02 AM
I've been waiting awhile to see some new polling data in NM. It seems to be an underpolled swing state in my opinion. Especially considering Bush won it in 04 by such a small margin, and Gore similarly in 00.
Anyway, the crosstabs are all coming up Obama. I personally like looking at the preference among self-identified Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal better than party ID, and McCain is getting killed in that category with moderates breaking 2 to 1 for Obama. Also, 57& of the respondents say the economy is their #1 issue, and that's also breaking huge for Obama. I find it really interesting that nearly everyone who says terrorism is their number one concern is voting McCain, but if Iraq is their number one concern then it's 2 to 1 Obama. All the other tabs (education, income, religion) is also really favorable, much more so I imagine (but haven't looked) than for Kerry or Gore.
And finally, early voting has started in NM, and Obama's people are already turning out by more than 20% over McCain.
About the senate seat, the Republican in question has been running a torrent of negative ads. I have no idea where the money is coming from, but whenever you turn on the TV in WA, there's invariably a highly negative Dino Rossi ad.
I've heard that because the race is so close, the Republicans smell blood in the water and he's getting a lot of out of state contributions. 10 million from a Republican Governor's association.
I've done some phonebanking for Gregoire and these ads are really having an effect, even though they really, really, really stretch the truth, if not lie. I've called a many people on the phone and it often goes like this:
me: might i ask who you're considering voting for in the presidential election?
them: oh, Obama! definitely Obama.
me: and what about in the governor's race?
them: i'm not sure yet. i've heard that Gregoire [insert line from Dino Rossi ad here].
So the race is very tight. Negative campaign carpetbombing has a lot to do with it. I think it also shows the power of donating to out of state campaigns, especially close ones.
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:03 AM
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:27 AM
Wrong. The Governor's race is NOT always tight in Washington. Just this match-up, which is the same as 2004.
Ironically, Obamanation which tells those of us who supported Hillary and are going to vote for McCain to look at the ISSUES... because Obama is closer to Hillary than McCain.
Well, maybe you should tell that to Washington State. Gregoire endorsed Obama early on in the Dem primaries, and Gregoire is definitely aligned issue-wise with Obama. Rossi is much MORE aligned with G.W. Bush than McCain is. So why are so many of those Obama supporters in Washington (especially Metro Seattle) supporting Rossi who is the antithesis of Obama?
Note also that Rossi is basically in the pocket of the BIAW (Building Industry Association of Washington)... not a union but rather a political front for a guy who is the ultimate anti-environmentalist because he believes in development without constraints. Right now, the BIAW is having "legal" problems with campaign finance laws, and Rossi appears to be directly implicated.
Survey USA is making an over-reaching statement that Obama benefits the other Democrats lower on the ticket (except Washington) where he is ahead. According to the previous polls going way back, in New Mexico Udall has always been way ahead of his opponent. In fact, the numbers have hardly changed for the last YEAR!!!--
SurveyUSA 10/5-7/07 514 RV
Pearce 37 Udall 55
Posted on October 15, 2008 11:53 AM
Isn't that enough for Washington to go Dark Blue? I honestly doubt McCain has a chance there at this point after the last three polls:
Obama +9, +10, and +16
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:14 PM
I think the only reason it isn't dark blue is the McCain part of the graph still shows an upward trend since 9/10 even though it clearly hasn't been.
Posted on October 15, 2008 12:17 PM
For some reason I can never trust this poll. SurveyUSA always seems to lean to far to the left.
Posted on October 15, 2008 2:07 PM
I'm not surprised by the Washington numbers. I don't think it will be very close. We've voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate since 1988. In general, most people here really don't like the national Republican candidates (too extreme). They do like many of the local Republicans (often because they are moderates). In that regard, we are like the Northeast.
That being said, I think this is one of the unusual areas where both candidates are fairly well liked and respected. McCain has ruffled some feathers over a few Boeing contracts, but overall I think people around here respect him more than they ever respected Bush. The bump and subsequent fall in support for McCain may have been excitement over Palin (Alaska is our nearest neighbor) before folks realized she just isn't that sharp.
Rossi is portraying himself as moderate (and as a moderate outsider). Gregoire has done a good job governing (by most accounts) but has not done a good job selling herself. It is a tough time to be a governor anywhere (ask Arnold) but she hasn't sold that message very well.
Posted on October 15, 2008 2:26 PM
NM should be going solidly for Obama but the recent movement in national polls hasn't really affected NM much. But like I said it should be in the bag for Obama. Washington was never going to flip to McCain and it's quite stunning that it isn't solid blue yet on Pollster. It just tells you that arithmetics take you only so far.
Posted on October 15, 2008 2:52 PM
Rossi has been running ads that make McCain's ads look like sunshine and lollipops.
Rossi is a first rate weasel. He is radically anti-choice, anti-woman, anti-education, pretty much anti-everything except for helping his cronies in the building industry. He is working hard to make Gregoire look bad with dark ads, and working equally hard to avoid revealing his positions on issues. If Washington voters understood his positions, he wouldn't stand a chance. It would be nice if Obama would exert some effort to extend his coattails to Gregoire.
And yes, Washington will soon be dark blue. McCain's increasingly dark-side campaigning is helping to drive undecided voters to Obama.
Posted on October 16, 2008 3:04 AM
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