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Swingometer 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

CBS News finds negative ratings of Sarah Palin.

Jon Cohen revisits polling on praising Confederate leaders.

A University of Washington polls finds race-based resentment among tea party supporters.

Resurgent Republic notes that independents care more about the deficit than Republicans or Democrats.

John Sides puts recent polling on budget priorities in context.

Tom Jensen sees no clear pattern for Senate races before-and-after the health reform vote.

Chris Bowers finds Charlie Crist would fare better as an independent.

Wilson Research announces its schedule for release of SRLC straw poll results.

Nathan Yau explores UK Swingometer graphics.

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Is it just me or is that UW survey completely dumb? If the TEA party movement is about too much government and the question asks if a certain ethnic group receives too many handouts, isn't it highly likely they will say yes regardless of the race.

I would love to see the actual questions asked. I have a feeling that if you substituted 'whites' for 'blacks' or even 'americans' for 'blacks' you would have received similar results.

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Ptolemy:

The University of Washington survey is a travesty. Racial "resentment" is measured by asking about policies of the US government. Are political differences racial? Questions that are actually about race are asked of those who approve of the tea party, but the responses are not compared to any other group so it is impossible to determine if they mean anything!

The UW release seems prejudiced against Southerners and conservatives by assuming these groups to be prejudiced.

Then there is this: "Whites who disapprove of President Barack Obama, the survey found, are 55 percent more likely to support the tea party than those who say they approve of him." Isn't something like that going to be true of any demographic group?

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Wong:

Considering all the ugly racial epithets cast on minority congressmen and women, the spitting, the parading of a white supremacist banner at the Capitol, etc. ad nauseum, anyone who cannot see the Tea Party has a strong racist elememt to it would have to be in a state of pathological denial.

While I don't believe all Tea party supporters are racist, I do believe what my father told me all my life.

If you lay down with dogs, don't be surprised when you wake up with fleas.

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Field Marshal:

The racial epitaphs were obviously made up since they couldn't find one piece of video, one cell phone, one recording with the alleged racist comments. Even the spitting was found to be a fabrication.

The whole Tea Party is an angry, racist mob is completely made-up by the mainstream media in an effort to marginalize what they see as a threat to their Dem agenda.

This political cartoon is VERY apt.
http://media.townhall.com/Townhall/Car/b/4-4-10smearRGB20100405102332.jpg

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Wong:

After being spit on and called the "n" word and the "F" word, your position is that those respected Congresspeople who witnessed the ugliness are liars.

Nice. Those fleas starting to itch yet?

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

Wong:
After being spit on and called the "n" word and the "F" word, your position is that those respected Congresspeople who witnessed the ugliness are liars.

OK, if you can prove it Andrew Breibart will give you $100,000. Because even the supposed "victims" of this assault like Rep. Cleaver never came forward with any proof.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:
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RonK Seattle:

Too early to tell if the UW survey is a travesty. It hasn't been published.

The interpretive press release, however, is a travesty - for reasons numerous and obvious.

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Xenobion:

"Among whites who approved, 35 percent said they believe blacks to be hardworking, 45 percent said they believe them intelligent and 41 percent said they believe them trustworthy."

For whatever reasons these direct questions are a travesty. I don't know how you can answer these questions and not understand a majority of the people they polled that support the tea party are racist or just baited into being racist depending on how the questions were asked.

I'd love to see the questions but if you simply answer "no" to ,"Do you believe blacks are trustworthy, or intelligent, ect?" You are in fact a racist. Lets not dance around the subject.

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Field Marshal:

Wong,

You're really gullible. Just because a politician says something, doesn't make it true. You know, every once in a while, a pol does something to further their own agenda and image. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen. LOL!!!!

The survey just plays right into the hands of what the mainstream media wants- to portray them as racist, angry, unAmericans. It really doesn't matter though. The voters see through the garbage now thanks to non-liberal networks like Fox and internet sites. Its sad that some just take the MSM as gospel still. They are living in the past.

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RonK Seattle:

Xenobion -- We haven't seen the questions, much less the answers, so it's a little early to jump to conclusions.

However, if the question were posed as you suggest above, the only race-neutral answer would be "no". Any other answer might be either racist or self-consciously PC.

How about you? Do you believe humans in general are intelligent? Trustworthy? Hard-working?

Against this baseline, would you describe any particular racial group as conspicuously intelligent, trustworthy, or hard-working?

Note also - from numbers given - the subsample size of white TP supporters is only 110; the number expressing "racist" attitudes is 50 or less; the comparative differential count of "racist" responses between those and non-TP supporters is at most 18 (or 13, depending how the stated percentage comparison was calculated).

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GARY WAGNER:

Wong: Put up or shut up. The spitting, the racial slurs - those were lies. There were thousands of cameras and microphones there. There were hundreds of journalists. Not one single shred of evidence has been found for any of it. Yet, hate filled liberals like you keep repeating it over and over again - ad nauseum. You people are pitiful and disgusting.

Even if there were, which there weren't, you want to label an entire movement with a few idiots. How about if we say that all democrats are terrorists like Bill Ayers who thinks he should have blown up more government buildings? How about we call all liberals communists and 9-11 truthers like Van Jones.

Show me a film, Wong? Show me a journalist who says they saw or heard it. Show me a recording. Show me any proof at all that the congretional delegation marching behind Queen Nancy with her oversized gavel trying to incite the crowd was able to succeed. Come on - if you want to say it then prove it.

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GARY WAGNER:

"no clear pattern for Senate races before-and-after the health reform vote."

That's kind of an odd way to label an article where the author reaches the conclusion, "I don't think things have gotten better for Democrats, and I think it's possible they've gotten worse."

The pattern is fairly obvious when not looking through liberal colored lenses - democrats on average have fallen since the healthcare vote.

Republicans have shifted up by a total of 37 points. Democrats have shifted up by a total of 13. Do you see a pattern there? That tells me that republican had a net gain of 24 points following the vote. That's a clear pattern.

Of the 3 that show a shift up for democrats, the republican is still up by 5 in Colorado, and the republican is still up by 15 in Kentucky.

The only one that shows a state shifting from republican to democrat is Ohio and that is only with Quinnipiac - the only poll that ever showed the republican ahead (except for Kos which doesn't actually count as a legitimate poll). What the author doesn't tell you about Ohio is that Quinnipiac might show Fisher as ahead by 4 points but that he is only polling at 41% against Portman and only at 37% against Brunner.

Even with this authors selective choice of the best case scenario out of the primary he still can't hide how badly this vote has hurt democratic senate candidates so far.

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