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TX: 50% Perry, 41% White (Rasmussen 7/13)

Topics: poll , Texas

Rasmussen
7/13/10; 500 likely voters; 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Texas

2010 Governor
50% Perry (R), 41% White (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Rick Perry: 60 / 38
Bill White: 52 / 41

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 37 / 63
Gov. Perry: 55 / 44

 

Comments
Xenobion:

Eh probably how it'll turn out. Sort of an interesting discrepancy between Perry's apporval and his favorability.

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SC Guy:

It is possible that Texas could one day elect a Democratic governor but I don't think 2010 is going to be the year for it. Texas is still heavily Republican and Obama's approval rating is so bad there that it's hard to see the Dems getting much help.

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Stillow:

Dems will be locked at 45 percent or below in TX for many many years to come.

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Farleftandproud:

I have one thing in common with Governor Perry; i think secession would be a great idea. I would love t see VT secede and join Canada or be an independent province. If we could get the rest of New England to join us, we could finally have Democracy. Even NH, we'll convince to join us, and they can take their "Live free or die slogan with them".

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Stillow:

farleft - we agree, where can I send money to the get New england to secede movement? I am totally on board!!!!!!!!!!!!

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Texas has had Democratic governors-Ann RIchards.

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StatyPolly:

40 years ago Texas was one of the bluest states in the union. CA and most of New England were solid red.

Things change and move around.

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Aaron_in_TX:

White really wanted to run for the senate seat that would have been left open by KBH. He might have been able to squeak in a win for an open seat. Perry has a strong west TX base and has done an excellent job appeasing the democratic leadership in the cities and in the south so they don't opppose him too much. His silence on immigration is deafening.

There will be major Perry fatigue after this next term.

Rasmussen has generally had these same sorts of numbers for this race since he started polling it. Practically identical to their June poll. The race really isn't in the news much, people don't care.

Perry refuses to schedule a debate with White. It's a good idea for him, he has nothing to gain from a debate. He really doesn't want to have to talk about what he doesn't want to talk about - mainly immigration. Again, his silence is deafening. Several mayors and city councils have passed resolutions disapproving of the AZ law and not one peep from Perry.

Instead, he actually advocated a "middle way" on immigration and spoke with San Antonio mayor Julian Castro to the national council of La Raza. He's taken a brilliant position on immigration. I underestimated the guy. He is well to the left of the republicans nationally on this issue, but still blames the feds.

"Last Saturday, it was Gov. Rick Perry calling for a middle way, a more moderate way, on the volatile immigration issue. Speaking in San Antonio to the National Council of La Raza, he repeated his belief that an Arizona-type law is not right for Texas, even as he insisted that the federal government hasn't done enough to secure the nation's borders."

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/archives/2010/07/post_133.html

He's running for president, make no mistake.

White will not win. What will be interesting is if he over or underperforms Obama's 2008 performance. IF white gets better than 44% in a midterm in a republican year, that will be significant.

If not, well, democrats in TX might as well be happy with what they do have. I'll consider anything over 44% a win, 40-43% a hold, less than 40% a miserable loss.

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Field Marshal:

TX was dark blue until 1980. Bush defeating Richards was huge in terms of the shift in ideology. Basically, you had the democratic party beginning to move left (except Bill Clinton after 1994) while Texas was still conservative Dem territory. Thus, the dems moving to the radical left which has only accelerated in the last half decade, lost Texas.

Interestingly, Rick Perry was a democrat until 1989 in the Texas legislature.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Rick Perry was a democrat"

He spoke to freakin La Raza and reiterated his basic position that the AZ law is unnecessary in TX.

Funny turnaround from talking up secession at tea parties.

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nick283:

Anectdotal evidence, but i am actually a bit worried about Perry. Was in Fort Worth last weekend and saw tons of White signs, but no Perry ones. Tarrant County is usually pretty solid Republican territory.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Was in Fort Worth last weekend"

Well, depends what part you were in. If it was the southern part of the city, there's a good amount of democrats there. FW doesn't have as strong of an urban minority population like Dallas, but it does have a decent-sized liberal core around TCU. Northern part of that county should be strongly republican.

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Aaron_in_TX:

What's interesting is that Tarrant County is a bellweather. The vote there is usually within 1% of the statewide vote. In 2008 it was within .4% or something like that. If White does indeed do well there, than it's an indication Perry is in trouble.

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DFW freethinker:

White is running one of the strangest campaigns I have seen to date for a Democrat. He was touting his credentials as a "Sunday School Teacher" on one TV ad, and no I am not making it up. I heard him on a talk radio program the other day repeatedly stating the federal government was spending too much money and he does not take orders from national Democrats (Yeah, lie to me again). I am not sure who he is trying to attract. Perry has said he will debate if White's tax returns are released. That seems fair enough. I think White has something to hide or he would readily release the information. If I were running for public office, I would have no problem with something like this. I think Perry is going to win by at least 7 points.

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DFW freethinker:

Texas Democrats have got to do a better job of recruiting quality candidates if they expect to win the Governor's office or a Senate seat any time soon. An Evan Bayh type Democrat would have a good shot.

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