Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

Gallup Daily on the 2/5 States

Topics: 2008 , Barack Obama , Gallup , Hillary Clinton , John Edwards , The 2008 Race

Today's Gallup Daily release is up and they drill down to answer a question I posed earlier in my "Four Cautions" post:

An analysis of the preferences of eligible Democratic primary voters in the 23 states holding Democratic primaries or caucuses Tuesday finds results similar to the overall national results. Forty-nine percent of Democrats and (where eligible to participate) Democratic-leaning independents in Super Tuesday states favor Clinton for the nomination, while 44% choose Obama. This analysis is based on tracking data from Jan. 30-Feb. 3, all collected since John Edwards suspended his campaign.

The chart below shows their overall results.

02-04a_Gallup Daily_ Tracking Election 2008-3.png

As long as we're asking, here are a few more questions I wish our friends at Gallup would answer with the voluminous data set they have collected.

Obama's support has increased to roughly 42% over the last six nights of the Gallup survey from 33% over the six nights before that. Gallup has roughly approximately 2,400 interviews among Democrats and Democratic leaners for each six night period. So as long as we are posing questions, here are a few more I wish Gallup would try to use that data to answer:

  • Where, demographically, have Obama's gains come from? They looked at gender on Friday. What about race? age? education? income? Has Obama gaining more among hard core Democrats or just independents who lean Democratic?
  • Does the Obama-Clinton race look any different over the last six nights if they narrow the sample based on self-reported intent to vote or interest in the campaign? Obviously, that sort of analysis requires questions about vote intent or interest that they may not be asking, but they must be asking some measure of intent on the Gallup Daily.
  • What about the six caucus states? It might require rolling together more than a weeks' worth of data, but how do Obama-Clinton preferences in those states compare to the preferences elsewhere?

 

Comments
ca-ind:

I think Obama has topped out. He won't go higher than where he is, just by looking at charts since Feb 1. Whaever support he got from Edwards voters, increased his numbers but it has stopped now.

____________________

Hey Mark,

Following the nomination process from Ireland. Loving your analysis, compared with the sadly simplistic analysis available most places here, your stuff is gold dust.

Eoin

____________________

vh:

I saw this headline on one of the polling sites, which I think is what is going to happen tomorrow.
"Obama Closes on Clinton, But Doesn't Catch Her"

____________________

Henry :

ca-ind,

Funny, this call of "Obama has topped out", in other words a desperate, "Oh no, Obama couldn't possibly still continue gaining ground!!", has been doing the rounds in the crying Clinton crowds for about a week now.

I agree Obama's "surge" in support is likely to "top out" at some point.

I just laugh at this completely irrational repetition that it's happening "now", despite any actual real trends showing that to be the case.

[Todays tracking poll showing a 1 point "drop" for Obama (1pt gain for Clinton) does not constitute a trend.]

Tomorrow is going to be fun. Clinton looks to still have a slight edge. If she comes out ahead by 200+ delegates, that's a substantial win for her. If she comes out ahead by only around 50 delegates or less, a virtual tie, I think that's good for Obama as the campaigns move on. On the other hand if Obama manages to come out ahead tomorrow it will be a huge upset.

It's looking more likely to be one of the second two options at this point.

Peace
Henry

____________________

tony:

How reputable are ARG and SurveyUSA? They both have come out with polls showing Clinton leading in California. The numbers are not close as in the other polls. They do not have as many undecided voters. The Field Poll only found 70% decided on these two. The others were undecided or voting for someone else. Could it be that the undecided voters are breaking more towards Hillary Clinton?

____________________

Dwight:

I think the polls have significant limitations in predicting the results of the Democratic races tomorrow for two reasons (discussed here before):

1) Unusually high turnout and a high undecided rate make it difficult for polls to accurately predict the final results, as New Hampshire and South Carolina showed.

2) The Democratic primary races are not really by state in many cases but by congressional district, since that's how delegates are chosen. Delegates are allocated in portion to the vote in each CD, so the popular vote margin in a primary state tomorrow night may not match the results by delegate. In what appears to be a close race, the delegates matter, although media's perception of who "won" the popular vote will influence later races.

____________________

Pandora:

I do not think the polls indicated mail in ballots that have already been casted. That could likely go Clinton's way and could give big surprise results come Wed. In addition, the Latino voters that are highly motivated can swing things to Clinton's way in a big way.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR