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Update: Two New Toss-Ups in MD

Topics: 2006 , The 2006 Race

As should be evident by our "most recent polls" box on the right, the Mason-Dixon organization released their (presumably) final round of statewide surveys today.  We just updated our charts and the new polls helped push both the Maryland Senate and Maryland Governor's races into the "toss-up" category. 

 

 

Comments

As an MD resident, I can tell you that in the Senate race, it's going to be Cardin by at least 5 points, possibly twice that. The race for governor will be closer, but O'Malley is going to come away with the win.

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Rufus Ryker:

Well, that settles it! Corbett is a "MD resident." He says Cardin will win by 5-10 points. Sounds like money in the bank. Out of curiosity, Corbett, did you pick Bush to win in 2004?

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MD resident:

according to the latest polls, the races are toss-ups.

/obvious
//MD resident

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Ed Jones:

The media is going to weep when Steele wins this. The Wash Post is freaking out already. They all talk about the Ford race--Ford is their hero--but Steele is actually CLOSER than Ford in all the polls now.

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Bryan :

I am a Maryland resident, went to public schools in the state and a proud Terp alum. I proudly cast my ballot via absentee for Ehrlich and for Steele.

Corbett, you don't know Josh White do you? He's Martin's campaign manager...he was complaining the Baltimore Sun's poll wasn't accurate because "our numbers used 100 more registered voters and anyone who took high school math knows 900 is more than 800." The irony being 800 to 900 (out of 1.7 mil that voted in 02) is absolutely irrelevant in the 95 or 99 percentiles....in fact, they could've used as low of a sample as 650ish and to make the next confidence interval they'd need to be about 1016-1020. Sad that this guy is running a campaign!

I think Ehrlich wins hands down and Steele wins in the squeaker. Call me crazy, but the momentum is just not there for O'Malley anymore and Cardin got tanked by Wayne Curry (who is trying to play kingmaker, and wisely I might add).

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Ernie:

The latest polls do show the race closing, and the MoE is such that there is no longer the standard confidence percentiles -- but the only polls that have shown Steele at or above the level of Cardin are two survey USA polls. A look at the new chart shows that these have consistently trended far lower than the other polls. I see that poll as an outlier and there has been a lot of criticism of their methodology over the years. It will be close, though, and the battle has come down to Prince Georges county's african american vote turnout. Curry certainly tossed the race into the air, though the current PG executive, Jack Johnson, is a strong Cardin supporter who is campaigning with him. Bill Clinton was in PG last night as well. The big question is whether the PG Democratic turnout operation can get people to the polls tomorrow.

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MD4BUSH:

Corbett is correct. You see Bryan doesn't tell you he is a well known GOP blogger and apologist who loves to spout their talking points. The MD GOP is to trying to suppress the black vote. The Democrats have a massive GOTV campaign. Wayne Curry is an Ehrlich supporter from 2002.

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