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US: Daily Tracking (9/15-17)

Topics: PHome

National Daily Tracking Surveys
9/15-17/08

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
1,100 LV, 3%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 49, McCain 43

Diageo / Hotline (story, results)
912 RV, 3.2%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 46, McCain 42

Gallup
2,815 RV, 2%; Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 44

Rasmussen
3,000 LV, 2%; IVR
Obama 48, McCain 48

 

Comments
hyh:

For the skittish commenters…

Obama supporters should not get too excited by the polling pattern over the past week. McCain supporters should not be overly disheartened by the same – aside from the inherent fundamental disadvantages Republicans have in 2008. All this movement towards Obama can be explained as the second half (loss of over-exuberance for McCain) of the RNC convention bounce rather than anything good Obama did or anything bad McCain did.

Based upon past polling data, this movement (the downward slope of the convention bounce) is predicted to continue for a few more days before stabilizing to pre-convention levels without any truly game-changing event. Of course if the slide for McCain continues beyond that (say something beyond more than 3 point advantage for Obama on both daily Gallup AND daily Rasmussen), then go ahead and call it a real momentum.

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serpounce:

Well I don't think there can be any doubt now that Obama has rebounded, and with the economy the top issue for the next news cycle, McCain is going to need an amazing debate performance if he is going to hold on.

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Mike_in_CA:

hyh -- thats a bit too cautious of you I think. In virtually every national poll, Obama has turned around a 2-3 point deficit into a 3-4 point lead. In a week. That's dramatic, and indicative of real momentum.

I have always said to anybody who would listen, that there would be an event or a serious of events in the fall that would turn this thing overwhelmingly in Obama's favor. Those events would re-center the debate around ISSUES. The stock market plunge seems to have done that. People are now thinking about actual ISSUES, and Obama wins the issues debate handily. If the stock market hadn't crashed, it would have been the debates that would have refocused us on issues. Either way, when issues dominate, Obama wins. And I always held firm that the day would come when the electorate would care about issues. Let's see what happens, but I think Obama could really blow this open in the coming weeks.....

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StuffOfInterest:

For those who were saying how terrible the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll is, it is interesting that the Gallup poll today is exactly where the Research 2000 poll was yesterday. Rasmussen is lagging behind a bit, but all of the polls appear to be consolidating around the same range.

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JFactor:

There's a clear momentum shift. However, while Obama has re-claimed his slight lead the Republicans have no reason to panic like the Democrats didn't have either just a few days ago. This shift in numbers have been quicker than expected, though. The financial crisis has definately helped Obama somewhat.
____________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Adrian B:

Let's face it - the Obama bounce disappeared very quickly (because of the GOP convention), the McCain bounce has disappeared very slowly (because of Palin). Now the economy has taken centre stage and the game has completely changed. Any poll taken before 9/15 is completely out-of-date.

After both conventions and bounce aftershocks, Obama is now about 2 points better off than he was in mid-August.

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Justin:

Change from yesterday:

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
Obama +1, McCain -1

Diageo / Hotline
Obama +1, McCain 0

Gallup
Obama +1, McCain -1

Rasmussen
Obama +1, McCain 0


Average Change:
Obama +1, McCain -0.5

Average Swing:
Obama +1.5

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cabos101:

Anything can happen in this race, but Obama certainly won this week. And, it will be hard for any other issue to dominate as much as the economy has this week.

We're back to where we started, Obama is likely ahead 4-5 points. And, remember, a six point win in the Presidential race is large.

That being said, this was an important week for Obama. This is the last week without a debate (except for the last push after the final debate.) That's significant as it will be all debate all the time, meaning that John McCain now has to reset the map somehow...or a third party (and I don't mean political party) has to.

Anything can happen, but Obama is currently back in the driver's seat.

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marctx:

"Rebounded" is not the right word. Obama has always had 46-48. McCain spiked to 48-49 after the convention and now dropped back down again. The same phenomenon happened in the primaries. Hillary's numbers would bounce all over the place but Obama's was always 46-48. Chuck Todd always talks about this. He thinks 70% of undecideds are going to end up voting for McCain. I would be concerned if Obama went to 52-53%.

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KipTin:

It must be the Daily Kos weighting of political ID for "likely voters," because Obama in the Daily Kos poll outperforms "registered voters" in the Gallup Poll. (Registered voter polls do favor Democrats because there are more registered Democrats.)

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Justin:

Does anyone have a link on the early voting info for each state? I think I remember seeing something before, but now I can't find it. Ideally I'd like a list of states with no excuse early voting and the dates each state begins.

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KipTin:

You are right... marctx. Chuck Todd says to pay attention is a candidate consistently hits or exceeds the 50% mark, and that means something-- because of the undecideds and swing voters.

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KipTin:

That Obama is not over 50% in the Daily Kos is something to ponder (heavy-weighted Democrat likely voters).

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carl29:

According to Gallup's comment today, the race has come back to where it was before the conventions. It seems that the same demographics that were supporting the candidates before the "craziness" are back home.

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carl29:

Has McCain ever reached the 50% in Gallup tracking? How many times have McCain being above 46% of support in Gallup?

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IndependentThinker:

@marctx and @KipTin

As far as I remember Chuck Todd was talking about Michigan because of the astonishing amount of undecideds and he said if Obama doesn't hit the 47% in the state he should be concerned

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thereisnospoon:

good news for Obama all around here. If even Rasmussen is tied, then we know Obama is up by 3-4.

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Justin:

Unrelated to this poll, but this seems to be where most of the current discussion is.

According to various sources, people in Ohio will be able to start voting just *12* days from now with early one-stop voting (Register and vote at the same time), so keep a close eye on the current climate of Ohio.

No ballots will be counted until Election Day, but polls could be somewhat telling.

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Hope Reborn:

Florida and Ohio are toss ups
Virginia and Colorado are still competitive if not tied
Obama comfortable in Iowa and New Mexico
Holding Kerry states through the bounce

And now the bounce is over. McCain NEEDED to hold a lead or tie into 9/29's debate; if he goes in down 3-4%, they'll be in a desperate position and with Obama knowing its his for the taking, the newer, more agressive, more snarky Obama will make quick work of McCain on his way to the victory everyone has expected all along.


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DecaturMark:

@Justin

So the people of Ohio can start voting a month before the election? I would imagine those people who waited in the long lines in 2004 will get out and vote early. I seem to recall that it was mostly AA's. How will they be able reconcile all the early voting in their exit polling? Just curious. In Georgia we can vote 2 weeks before the election.

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mirrorball:

carl29: If I'm reading the chart right, McCain was above 46% in Gallup for part of March, the first half of May, and then post-convention until this week.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow-General-Election.aspx

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Lechuguilla:

Above comments to the effect that undecideds would go for McCain is not, absolutely not, consistent with historical patterns.

In most presidential elections, the tendency is for undecideds to vote for the challenging party, in this case for Obama, not the party that currently is in power.

Maybe this year will be different. But don't bet on it.

Lech

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player:

I believe what Karl Rove said yesterday. You can't really trust whats in the polls at the moment. Its better to wait until after the debate next week. We have heard the Obama machine turn up the noise for the last few days; its better to wait until it subsides. However, I do think that the beast has had its last run. Its about out of energy.

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Grummy1971:

carl29 - you kind of asked the question that I was about to ask. I think that McCain hit 50% in one of the post convention Rasmussen polls, but apart from that he has never done so.

As an outsider (I am in the UK) looking in, my view is completely coloured by only getting information through the net and a bit of MSM - so I don't get that (all important and totally unscientific) qualitative filter of anecdote - but my impression is that three things have 'reset the dial':

1) Obviously the financial institution meltdown has, as someone else pointed out, refocused the minds' of voters onto issues.

2) Obama handled the lipstick thing differently from previous Democratic candidates - instead of buckling under the attack he saw it for what it was - an overstep by McCain's team - the story became one of McCain's team lying, rather than Obama being insulting.

3) Back to the economy - but from a different angle - and that is McCain's 'fundamentals' gaffe (do you use that word over here) and subsequent appearance of shifting of positions on 'the' issue - combined perhaps with the growing obviousness that Palin is not prepared for office - has made the Republican ticket seem lightweight and 'not serious'.

If Obama stays basically on message and does not screw up then it is going to be hard for McCain to come back - Palin was surely the last trick up his sleeve. Unless he has something really unpleasant to smear Obama with?

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[nemesis]:

Funniest quote ever...

"I believe what Karl Rove said..."

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mccainandpalinareliars:

To the idiots who say the dailykos is "weighted". Umm, read much? The kos poll is not weighted. They poll Americans randomly and what they get is what they get. Got it?

So one day there may be more dems than another and that is because there ARE more dems right now in the US - you can thank your savior, GW Bush, for that.

I trust the Kos/Research 2000 poll more than any other right now. I would like to see an increased sample size in all their polls however.

By the way, it isn't just because of the recent bailouts and stock market dropping that Obama is gaining, the Palin pick is coming into the light of day, where everyone can see that a "President Palin" would be an unmitigated disaster. This has convinced voters that McCain is off his rocker so to speak.


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1magine:

BO is not up 4-6 pts. nationally. Neither is this "bad news for BO b/c he's not 30+ pts ahead..." or at some other magical fairytale number that some paid consultant made up as a talking point.

This is just an indicator that the conventions have finished, polling has returned to where it was before and 90% of the public has made up their mind and will not change it despite what they tell pollsters.

The debates are coming and virtually all of the remaining 10% will watch the first debate, up until the first commercial break - or sooner if it goes beyond 15 minutes and the discussion is dry. They will make their minds up. Can I trust/live with BO as POTUS? Is JM going to be able to help me and my family? A week later, we will all have our answer and it will be confirmed on 11/4. All of the ups and downs between the first debate and 11/4 will amount to diddly poop, unless a candidate is caught in a sex scandal.

Of course - one must also realize that a 3% lead in the National polls - amounts to about a 97% chance of electoral college success.

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marctx:

How the hell is Biden getting the one-liner out first about the bridge to nowhere???

Here's mine.

I think most of the undecided voters are going to say:

Thanks, but no thanks to Obama's policies to nowhere...

I added the thanks but no thanks to Biden's version.

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Sarah McPlain:

Ouch!! McCain is collapsing faster than Lehman Brothers. Every hundred points in the Dow is worth 1% in the tracking polls. If McCain were a stock, the short sellers would be piling on. Oh, that's right he is one on Intrade. And they are piling on. YEEAHH!!!

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Justin:

@DecaturMark
Yeah, it's a little crazy, and yes, likely an advantage for Obama.

@marktx
The bridge to nowhere is not a good subject for the McCain camp at this point. It's pretty much general knowledge that Palin was in favor of the bridge and didn't turn on it until congress reduced the amount of money going to Alaska for it.

It's also general knowledge now that she kept the money she could get and used it for other things. A large number of people have learned this since the convention, which is one reason why her favorability numbers have been dropping heavily. This will continue if the subject keeps being brought up.

This is why it's good for Biden to reference it, but not so good for the McCain camp.

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Hoosier:

It seems what we are seeing here is just the normal post-convention "correction" onthe polls.

Too many Obama folks hit the panic button after the McCain/Palin bounce of last week. Now, as the media take a harder look at "Pinocchio Palin", the public is starting to say "Thanks, but no thanks".

As the markets plunge, it would seem logical that the polls would continue to trend slowly away from the GOP. Of course, one day is a lifetime in polling.

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H2OPlus:

These results are more than "return to normalcy." As I said, we just got through high tide for the McCain camp.

Palin now has the lowest favorable rating of the four candidates. While she has excited the rad right, she is turning off mainstream USA as they get to know her.

McCain has mismanaged his statements regarding the economy, falling into Obama's "out-of-touch" trap by insisting the "fundamentals of the economy are strong." He could have at least changed his language rather than use the same old stuff from before.

Together, they have upset the MSM by continuing to promote their "lies" (i.e. Bridge to Nowhere, Paling taking no earmarks, Obama's sex education to kindergartners, lipstick on a pig) as truths even though the media has dug up documents to prove otherwise.

It's going to take a huge gaff by Obama or a super debate performance by McCain to get the media to return its sights to Obama.

Again, the rad right will whine about the MSM but at some point they have to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps, take responsibility and tell McCain and Palin to be grown up men and women and manage their messages better. Their errors are not the stuff of heroes.

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mccainandpalinareliars:

yeah, only idiots and the mentally challenged still think Palin has a shred of honesty left. She just keeps lying about the bridge to nowhere........

Now, even Chuck Hagel has said she is not qualified to be president. Yikes. Looks like Obama might be able to pick up an EV from Nebraska as well.

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Xenobion:

Does everyone remember criticizing Rasmussen for the lag effect in voter identity? Well that effect is catching up apparently as time passes on.

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tjampel:

marctx:

"Rebounded" is not the right word. Obama has always had 46-48. McCain spiked to 48-49 after the convention and now dropped back down again. .... Obama's was always 46-48. Chuck Todd always talks about this. He thinks 70% of undecideds are going to end up voting for McCain. I would be concerned if Obama went to 52-53%.

Simply untrue. Gallup had Obama static at 45 for 10 straight days from Aug 14th through Aug 24th and he averaged just under 45 in Ras for the same period. Please provide stats when you make statements about a statistic. It doesn't invalidate your point, perhaps, but I think you have 0 cred when you pull numbers out of your ass.

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tjampel:

Sorry the first parag is Marctx; the second is my commentary on this untruth

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boomshak:

Does anyone have access to the crosstabs on Gallup? I am curious to see if he has ajusted his party affiliation targets since Mccain was +5.

My reason for asking this is that his numbers here are the same as the numbers from pollsters using a bad weighting heavily favoring Democrats.

Does anyone have the weightings for Gallup?

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boomshak:

Here's the thing that make me suspect of Gallup. First of all, he is a Democrat. secondly, even when McCain was ahead by 5, he would regularly say he expected what has happened here to happen. Now what he predicted has happened spot on.

I am afraid that he may have changed his weightings to benefit Obama. Would sure lovce access to his crosstabs.

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boomshak:

Gallup Party Affiliations weightings anyone? I am willing to bet his Dem weighting is 5 points higher than it was last week.

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thoughtful:

@Boomshak

Your clutching.

Look had Rasmussen not changed his ID Weighting on Sunday Obama would be +3% and be lin line with the other polls. You can do the arithmetic!

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hutbay:

@Boomshak

Shut up...


- Bill O'Reilly

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s.b.:

Rasmussen isn't lagging, Rasmussen weights for Party id and as such is more stable over a few days. Rasmussen is also a LV model and others are RV. With a LV screen and party id weighting that is current unlike today's NYT/CBS poll the race is a dead even, not just this polster but others.

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RussTC3:

@Boomshak

Gallup doesn't provide breakdowns.

Research 2000 is currently the most transparent tracking poll out there, offering up all the important data, including Dem/Rep/Ind breakdowns, demographics, etc.

Heck, they even provide the numbers from the individual day samples (Obama +8 on Wednesday's sample). Sure the MOE is higher on the individual days, but at least they're shown.

If you have a problem with the Research 2000 tracking poll, the numbers are right there in front of you allowing you to change the Party ID numbers to where you think they should be.

If only the other trackers were so transparent.

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Basil:

Rove publicly says he thinks that Obama should stop attacking McCain/Palin and concentrate on himself if he wants to win.

What does it mean?

1) He sees McCain/Palin starting to lose it in the polls and suggests Obama/Biden do something different, hoping that will help his team.

2) He wants the public to see all Obama mentions of McCain/Palin as mean-spirited attacks, and never as issue-driven allegations or, god forbid,facts.

3) He's telling the truth and just offerring Obama some friendly advice.

4) He's using reverse psychology to trick Obama into continuing to attack McCain/Palin. (See "Br'er Rabbit and the Briar Patch" story)

5) He's using double reverse psychology to try to trick Obama into doing exactly what he's saying he really thinks Obama should do. Bwahahaha...

Mike, you're right. If D's stick to the issues and continue to press them, Obama will win. Attacks are one thing, smear is another. While McCain smears, Obama has to attack. Everybody's a game player (player) but R's (or at least neocons) seem to be ONLY game players, and their Reign of Terror is seeming like less of a game all the time.

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boomshak:

Yes, well my concern with Gallup that about a week or so ago, he started telescoping that McCain's numbers would surely come down despite there being no data to support that.

When would report McCain's lead, the language was always like "McCain takes a slight lead but we expect this to come back to earlier levels". Now that Obama has the lead (in his poll) again, he seems quite comfortable.

It was almost as if he was shaking his head when McCain was ahead. That's why i would like to know if he was giving the Dems a 5 point advatnage a week ago, and a 9 point advantage today.

His numbers are exactly like the other pollsters who are giving exagerated weightings.

I'm still going with rasmussen as the gold standard because at least i know I'm not getting screwed on the sample.

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boomshak:

Look at it this way. In the same period of time Gallup has moved 9 points to Obama, Rasmussen has moved just 3.

Something is wrong there as both these polls use similar sample sizes.

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boomshak:

Does anyone know why Gallup is so much more VOLATILE than Rasmussen considering they both use a similar sample size?

9 points vs 3?

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RussTC3:

@boomshak
I honestly don't know, but I assume it could have to do with Rasmussen using Likely voters and Gallup using Registered voters.

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thoughtful:

@Boomshak

You choose to ignore Rasmussen changed his party ID weighting. So Obama would have been up by 3 on last Saturdays's weightings.

On August 31st ID weightings 50-45 Obama

It's as simple as that.

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boomshak:

Here's what I am taking away from all these national polls:

IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE PARTY AFFILIATION WEIGHTING THEY USE, OTHER THAN THAT, THE POLLS ARE IDENTICAL:

Battleground Poll gives Dems only a 3 point advantage - McCain +2
Rasmussen gives Dems a 5 point advantage - Tied
DailyKos gives Dems a 9-10 point advantage - Obama +6

So basically this race is dead even tied with any other variation attributed to the sample weighting.

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Stuart:

Variability in Gallup is because they use registered voters and NO weighting for party id. Over one period they will get too many Dems, over another they will get too many repubs.

Their arguement is that no one really knows how many of either is "right" at any given point in time.

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boomshak:

thoughtful,

Don't get stuck on stupid. Rasmussen didn't just randomly change his weightings for no reason, he changed them based upon what he was seeing in the marketplace.

You keep acting like his numbers don't count because he just made them up to make FoxNews happy.

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boomshak:

Here's something no one is talking about.

Whoever wins this thing, no one is going to have a MANDATE FOR CHANGE. Whoever wins, approx. Half the country voted against them and quite fervently so.

The next president is in for a rough ride.

The risk to the Democrats? If Obama wins and he has a Dem Congress and Dem Justice and the country doesn't explode with prosperity, there will be no one to blame but themselves.

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boomshak:

@Stuart:

I concure with your analysis in Gallup except that he does control which areas he polls into.

That being said, for a tracking poll with an MOE of only 2, his poll does seem exceptionally erratic.

I mean, Obama +2 to Obama +8 to McCain +5 to Obama +4, all in a period of less than a month?

Very volatile for a tracking poll which is supposed to smooth things out.

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boomshak:

I concure = I concur, sorry :)

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[nemesis]:

@Boomshak
"Whoever wins, approx. Half the country voted against them and quite fervently so.

The next president is in for a rough ride."

This is one of your posts that makes a lot of sense, and I completely agree with. No matter who wins, if the next 4 years don't turn things around, there will be hell to pay for them.

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boomshak:

The University of Wisconsin has released surveys of eight Midwestern states (Sept 14-17, 600 RV in each state) showing a close race in all but one (Illinois, of course):

Iowa
McCain 45
Obama 45

Pennsylvania
McCain 45
Obama 45

Ohio
Obama 46
McCain 45

Wisconsin
Obama 45
McCain 44

Minnesota
Obama 47
McCain 45

Michigan
Obama 48
McCain 44

Indiana
McCain 47
Obama 43

Illinois
Obama 53
McCain 37

Close, close, close...

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boomshak:

"Democratic Congress May Adjourn, Leave Crisis to Fed, Treasury"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aVPBaUbYV_qQ

Now THAT'S LEADERSHIP!

ROFLMAO!

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boomshak:

If McCain doesn't immediately create an ad from this he is nuts!

"Democratic Congress May Adjourn, Leave Crisis to Fed, Treasury"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aVPBaUbYV_qQ

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thoughtful:

@BoomShak

Re:Rasmussen
I could see no reason to change the ID weighting from September the 14th. It seem to me that the timing of the first 5 battleground polls on the Monday 8th was effected to give via FOX the impression that the McCain campaign had bigger momentum.

The new ID weighting could only be in aid of one thing prolonging the impression of McCain BIG MOMENTUM inside the MOE!

Hence Rasmussen polls have been skewed all week, he is either right and many other polls are wrong or he overdid his ID weighting adjustment.

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thoughtful:

Boom

you clutching with those polls!

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thoughtful:

Race Poll Results Spread
Virginia InAdv/PollPosition McCain 48, Obama 46 McCain +2
Colorado InAdv/PollPosition Obama 51, McCain 41 Obama +10

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sherman:

Excuse me, but when has Gallup ever been considered a Democrat? As far as I know, there was always suspicion that Gallup was allowing its Republican roots to infiltrate its polls. I don't think that's true because it is one of the most respected polling organizations out there. But I've never once heard that Gallup was Democratic.

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boomshak:

Geesh, these state polls with their 5 point MOE's are just out of control. One shows McCain up 3 in CO, then next one shows him down 10.

Its just silliness.

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Stillow:

Tooooo many polls with tooooo many results.....I gave up tryign to read them....I'm just gonna guess the race is about tied!

Let's just have co-presidents...

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boomshak:

This ad is gonna leave a mark:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

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Stillow:

Ya it will probably hurt Obama a bit to have ex Fannie execs advising him on economic policy........

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metsmets:

I'm a Democrat but I agree with Boomshak. Rasmussen is the poll for me. It has a well-defined methodology. It says the race is tied nationally. I can agree with that. As I see it, there is no way Rasmussen is UNDERWEIGHTING Republicans. Therefore, my worst-case scenario, i.e. all you Republicans actually care enough to vote, results in a tie.

Why would I use NYT/CBS? If they're wrong, I could be bitterly disappointed on election night.

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boomshak:

MY TAKE ON THE PALIN BUBBLE:

Just like the dot.com and real estate bubbles, the Palin Bubble became a bit frothy ad unsustainable.

She is human after all and doesn't glow in the dark.

But what America is now seeing is a solid Sarah Palin. They are getting a feel for her "intrinsic" value as opposed to het iconic value.

What you have seen in the polls is not a move to Obama, but a loss of support from undecideds for Palin.

This seems to have slowed and we should see a steady move back to a more sustantive McCain/Palin rather than the mythological version.

I am guessing we will be about ties by debate day, assuming of course that the MSM Pollsters don't keep playing games with their party affiliations.

p.S., Reid saying "we are adjourning because we don't know what to do" about the financial crisis can't play well.

If McCain has half a brain (sometimes I wonder when it comes to his ads), those words will be in a new ad tomorrow.

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boomshak:

@metsmets:

Thank you. Why is Rasmussen the best?

Because he lets me, the reader, know all his crosstabs and why he uses them. His party affiliation numbers are based upon 45,000 interviews and will be updated weekly.

There is just too much "secret magic" in these other polls.

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Paul:

Gallup's demographic data is available for Sept 8-14, but the poll is the rolling average of Sept 15-17. So except for research purposes (going backwards) which would reconcile Gallup overall rating against demographics, the demographic data does not help to understand the current scenario. Unfortunately we will have to wait a week to see how the demographics pertain to this weeks poll data.

The DailyKos poll continues to show gains one point at a time for Obama. The most impressive numbers for Obama are +11 in Midwest and +10 in West.

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JimGray:

http://www.slate.com/id/2200265/

This is an intresting article on how the economy crisis will "put Obama in the White House".
Who knows?

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boomshak:

You guys better hope no one is watching Sarah Palin on Hannity tonight. She is completely in the zone and very solid.

I mean the woman literally glows.

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Yeah she glows because she's radioactive. Ask Chuck Hagel.

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boomshak:

@Jo-el,

You know, I really need to let you lefties know something because you keep embarrassing yourselves with this whole "Chuck Hagel" thing.

Republicans HATE Chuck Hagel. He is what we call a RINO (Republican In Name Only). We don't give a flying f*** about what Chuck Hagel thinks about anything.

As a matter of fact, if Chuck Hagel is "against" something, that rings as an endorsement to us.

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boomshak:

I'VE TAKEN OUT MY CRYSTAL BALL THIS MORNING AND HERE IS WHAT I AM SEEING:

Obama's recent surge can be attributed to 3 things:

1. The economic meltdown and the resulting "anybody but them" backlash towards Republicans.
2. The "defrothing" of the Palin Iconic Bubble.
3. Just some really awful ads run by McCain (Obama fumbled on his own 2 yard line and McCain threw an interception in the endzone).

WHAT I SEE GOING FORWARD:
1. The market is way oversold here and should rally quite strongly on effective and decisive actions taken by the Bush Administration and the Fed. The Dow could be 1500 off its recent lows by election day. You have heard of peaking too early? The economy tanked too early to benefit Obama in 2 months.
2. Gas prices will be down close to $3.00 a gallon by election day. People vote with their pocket books.
3. Sarah Palin will have become less "iconic" and more "substantive and reliable" by election day. She will have gone in people's minds from smoke to fire.
4. I think that John McCain may have learned his lesson on the idiotic ads, whereas (if the recent "McCain is a Bigot" ad) is any indication, Team Obama is taking the A-Train to Stupidville.
5. If this race looks really close coming down the stretch and the Left thinks it may lose, look for the MSM and Moonbat 527 groups to become increasingly shrill and extreme in their attacks on McCain/Palin. Obama must either disavow them and risk alienating the fringe portion of his base, or say nothing and sound less and less like a "post-partisan, new type of candidate".
6. With all the looneys in the world, there is a good chance someone will blow up somebody or some country will invade some other country and America's attention will refocus on security, massive winner for McCain.

CONCLUSION:
This will likely be a 1-2 point race and look more like 2004 than most people think. The economy will likely be surging, gas and food prices will be lower and people will feel better about their futures.

If the economy is in recovery, Obama loses the "we're not them" advantage and if there is international unrest, McCain increases that advantage.

As we look back on Nov 5th, the talking heads will probably surmise that Obama surged too soon and that the recovering economy/international unrest saved McCain's bacon.

____________________

boomshak:

I think you would agree with me that nobody is gonna run away with this thing. Only one poll on one day put Obama over 50% at the height of his post-convention surge.

To win this thing (3rd party candidates likely will not factor at all), Obama will need to do something Democrats have only done twice in 60 years and not at all in the last 30 years - get more than 50% of the popular vote.

Right now, there is a still a lot of "benefit-of-the-doubt" built into Obama's support as, you will have to admit, that support is based largely upon his promises for the future as opposed to his deeds of the past.

As a matter of fact, to believe Obama will actually govern as he is now campaigning (a moderate on taxes, defense and government spending), we have to copletely discount everything we know of him from his last 10 years in office.

Not only is Obama saying to the electorate, "Believe I can do things I've never done", he is saying "Believe I won't do the things I have done".

As they say, "past is prologue". Prior behavior predicts future actions. That's why we have things like credit scores.

It is almost as if Obama expects someone to sprinkle "change dust" on him on Inauguration Day and turn him into a true "Agent of Change" backed up by actions and not just talk.

If being an "Agent of Change" were declared illegal and Obama was arrested, would there be enough evidence from his last 10 years in office to convict him?

Obama preaches "Change We Can Believe In", because it takes a big dose of faith to believe that Obama can actually CHANGE anything as opposed to just pontificating about it. There are "talkers" and there are "doers". If the last 10 years provides any prism into the future, Obama is the former.

Actually, there is one clear-cut example of change that Obama has brought about in the last 10 years. He has CHANGED pretty much every position he ran on in the Primaries. That is REAL CHANGE I can see with my own eyes.

CONCLUSION:
All other things be equal, the conservative tide always rises the last week before the election as people choose substance over style, especially during troubling times as these are.

Unless Barack has a 5 point lead a week before the election, he loses by 1-2 points.

____________________

thoughtful:

Boomshak

Both Ras and Gallup had Obama over 50%.

Please start your first sentence and pre-text again and revise.

Thank you

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak Your favorite poll:

Daily Kos Tracker 3 day Polling Data for September 19, 2008
MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
Overall 42 49 2 2 2 3
3% MOE
Yesterday's Results
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
09/18 42 50 2 2 2 2

NOTE: Sample: 356. Margin of Error: 5%.

____________________

boomshak:

Rasmussen has it tied again today. As this is a 3 day tracking poll, this means that McCain probably had a good night of polling last night to overcome the night of polling which moved it even the day before.

For now, it appears the McCain bleeding (as opposed to Obama surge) may have ebbed a bit.

Here i sone interesting line from Rasmussen: Despite Obama saying he will "cut taxes":

"Forty-eight percent (48%) believe that taxes will go up if Obama is elected while 26% believe the same will happen if McCain is elected. The gap is smaller among lower-income voters. Polls have consistently found that voters see tax hikes as bad for the economy. Three-out-of-five believe that voters should have the right to approve all tax increases."

____________________

boomshak:
____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

In order to keep fat cat bankers in their jobs and the US economy from melt down is going to cost the Government/tax payers/ federal reserve 0ver a trillon dollars.

Tell that to middle class America.

McCain and Gramm were instrumental in deregulating.

Tax Cuts? Whose going to pay for their mess?

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

"In order to keep fat cat bankers in their jobs and the US economy from melt down is going to cost the Government/tax payers/ federal reserve 0ver a trillon dollars."

That statement is misleading in much the same way that saying "buying a $100 stock will cost you $100".

The Federal Reserve, by taking these actions, will not just be blowing a trillion bucks on exotic dancers, they will be investing in real assets with real values that, in all likelyhood, will increase in value as the economy improves. In other words, the Fed is getting these assets at fire-sale prices.

Also, you have to look at what it will cost the American Econmy if the Fed does NOT act. far more than a trillion dollars, I assure you.

Statements like the above you quoted are just spin from Camp Obama trying to scare people that don't understand the way these things work.

P.S., The Democrats have chaired every single Committee for the past two years. Things were MUCH better two years ago. If they bear NO responsibility for any outcomes, why are they there?

____________________

slinky:

Why is intrade legal?

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boom

The idea as I understand is following the practice with the S & L collapse.

The Financial Instutions are going to bundle what maybe worthless investment products (you know the ones that got them into trouble) and sell them to the Fed.

That way The Institutions and the market deleverage (cut back on how much loans they have out) and are returned to liquidity, avoiding a further credit squeeze on the consumer because in essence the Banks have run out of money. they have toturn what maybe doubtful asset values into cash.

I hope you can understand that.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

The sin here is not who chaired the committees but who was responsible for deregulating and I have to say some of this debacle dates back to 1991 and Bill Clinton.

____________________

boomshak:

The new Gallup Polling seems very odd to me. Both Gallup and Rasmussen poll about the same number of people and have the same margin of error.

However, Gallup has swung 10 full points to Obama while Rasmussen has shifted only 3.

That is a HUGE difference in volatility. I personally believe that Gallup must have changed his methodology here to overweight Democrats. His numbers are identical to pollsters giving dems a 9 point advantage.

I don't want to be too disparaging of Gallup, but these 10-15 point swings up and down on a weekly basis are starting to strain credulity.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

But didn't the S&L bailout work? I mean we have had numerous boom economies since then.

____________________

boomshak:

I find it distressing that Gallup provides no crosstabs with his polling.

____________________

Opa:

The comment that we needed a "committee" to study the problem of the market has hurt McCain. At the same time, nobody believes that "the fundamentals of our economy are sound." Those two rather serious blunders only re-enforce the idea that McCain knows little about the economy.Presumably he leaves that to his wife at home but managing the good old USA economy takes understanding and knowledge which McCain has so far not demonstrated to have.

____________________



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