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US: Daily Tracking (9/3-5)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
9/3-5/08; 2,765 RV; 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 47, McCain 45

Rasmussen Reports
9/3-5/08; 3,000 LV, 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 49, McCain 46

 

Comments
cmbat:

So...no bounce then? McBush is dead in the water if he can't at least pull 2 points ahead in national polling from the Convention. This will be the high point of his campaign with all of the Palin excitement. I bet stories start to break on her this week, then she'll dodge the media and look worse, and then he won't be able to talk about issues because they have none to talk about. If McCain is still down 2-3 point by Monday, this election will be a landslide for Obama. End of story.

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Snowspinner:

Again, going on Nate's estimates for what individual days results are, this probably means that the one days yesterday showed about a dead even draw in Gallup, and a slight lead for Obama in Rasmussen.

McCain's bounce does not look like it will put him ahead at the moment. This is him at his strongest, and he's losing.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Gallup said McCain had a strong Friday and if that means he only gets to 45% then yes, I agree it's all but over.

Obama needs to stay on TV everyday talking about the economy and beware of the open microphones. He's got to at least be even in the debates because those are McCain's only chances.

Palin's excitement is already starting to fade and once everyone realizes she's afraid to get in front of the cameras, they'll know she is not ready to be the VP, much less the Pres.

Obama just needs keep doing what he's been doing and pray that his ground game comes through.

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voteforamerica:
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straight talk:

Mccain is deep trouble! Yeah these polls show a close race! But make no mistake about it the race is not that close! Mccain just started advertising in FLorida! That means his big lead there is gone! His Vp is going to crash his bids for president! Her Investigation hearings start next friday! These polls are smoke screens!

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Inkan1969:

I still think McCain will have at the most a +3 point Gallup lead and a +2 Rasmussen lead next week, but that will fade into 2 or 3 point leads for Obama by Saturday. Remember that Obama's bounce was biggest in the middle of the week after the convention. Still, a 2,3 point bounce doesn't seem like much for McCain to boast about.

Rasmussen results are curious though. This time Obama has a better lead (+3) with leaners instead of without (+1)?

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straight talk:

Mccain is deep trouble! Yeah these polls show a close race! But make no mistake about it the race is not that close! Mccain just started advertising in FLorida! That means his big lead there is gone! His Vp is going to crash his bids for president! Her Investigation hearings start next friday! These polls are smoke screens!

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SwingVote:

Seems like conventions ended with a tie. Obama's positivity (hope theme) is balanced by negativity (fear theme) of Republicans. GOP convention was more successful than I expected. So, we are where we were at the end of August.

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Timmeh:

It's too early to tell how much of a bounce McCain got/will get from his convention. By Tuesday, we'll see the upper extent of his polling numbers.

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axt113:

Judging by the gallup shift, and using nates numbers from 538, McCain probably had a postive result yuesterday in the polling, probably a McCain +2, however in Rasmussen it was likely a +1 for Obama, which indicates a dead heat in the race, if this is the best McCain can do, bringing the race to a tie then he's in trouble, and if Obama has another good night of polling then it will mean that he left the convention cycle with a small lead, a dangerous sign for McCain, if McCain wants to have any real chance he has to have a sustained laead

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Snowspinner:

Hm. Nate has McCain up 4 in Gallup, which would be his second best result pretty much ever - his last number in that area was in the immediate aftermath of the relatively unpopular Biden pick, which momentarily angered Clinton supporters.

Will this be more lasting? It's hard to see why it would be - convention bounces don't last.

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thoughtful:

Actually: McCain's best ever is 47% on Rasmussen and even with the September ID weight adjustment which helps McCain can't get above 46%

With Gallup McCain did have a big day probably 47% on the day and Obama may have got 45% or 46% on the day but please note Gallup does dip EVERY weekend from Obama to McCain). Note McCain has got to 46% only for one day since this tracker began and he should get to that tomorrow.

Within the MOE both posters look to have got this right I would expect Ras to be 49-46 again tomorrow and Gallup to be 47-46 or 46-46.

Monday Ras 49-45 Obama, Gallup may retain Sunday's tie before going back to 5 points for Obama by Wednesday.

So it looks like a 2.5% very short bounce for McCain

Rasmussen will be polling & publishing Fl, Mi, Oh and Va every Monday from here on for FOX news.

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TR in VA:

CMBAT ia true Moron. How did he come up with NO bounce when a few days ago it was a 8 point Obama lead?

and what hapens to his deduction of "NO bounce" if come Monday McCain moves ahead?

note that I said IF?

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Snowspinner:

thoughtful - I was treating it as McCain's biggest lead, not his best outright number.

Maddening that Rasmussen is doing Michigan, which is not a real swing state, and not Colorado, on which the election can hinge. Meh.

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TR in VA:

How is McCain In trouble in a Tie? everyone KNOWS that this should be a huge democratic blow... it certainly will be in the senate and House.

as for Palin mania settling down... wishful thinking. Come the debates it surely WILL but not know...20,000 showed up at the McCain rallys in WI and MI.

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Snowspinner:

TR in VA - A tie is trouble for McCain because, well, it's not a win. McCain has never convincingly managed to look like he's winning. And every day that he fails to change that it becomes less likely that he's going to.

In a race that has, over time, shown, at times, Obama leading decisively, Obama leading comfortably, Obama leading slightly, and a draw, a draw does not suggest that McCain is winning.

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thoughtful:

Snowspinner

I think Ras may be doing Colorado as well, 6 states in all!

Every saturday/weekend McCain polls better with Gallup. brampster first heads up on that one.

Palin is going to come off very badly from her problems. They are not going to be able to hide her forever!

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thoughtful:

Tr in Va

what is the bounce on Rasmussen? 9 days ago the same pollster had McCain +1, it is now -1.

With regards to Gallup it was at a high point 8 points a week ago!

Lets luck at the high water 47 Ras and 46 Gallup. That's why McCain is in trouble as today its 46 and 45!

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thoughtful:

+1 then today -3 Ras 10 days later what convention bounce? Gosh I'm losing it

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Snowspinner:

thoughtful - I hope so. As I see it, Obama has six paths to victory at this point: North Dakota + Montana, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Florida.

McCain has no real shot at a Kerry state other than New Hampshire.

If I were to get polls from seven states weekly, those would be the seven. I'd like to see Missouri, Michigan, New Hampshire, Indiana, and North Carolina every once in a while too, but those seven are the most likely tipping points.

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KipTin:

Both Rasmussen and Gallup stated that the full results of the GOP convention would not be seen until MONDAY!!!

Michigan is a "battleground" state this election. Read the news articles about how Obama is struggling there. Note also that Michigan already "knows" McCain because that was one of the 2000 primaries that McCain won against Bush and he campaigned this year in the GOP primary. Obama had no presence (political groundwork) in Michigan during the 2008 primaries and even took his name off the ballot.

Also note that Lebanese-American Nader with only 2 -3% can make a real difference in MI which has a huge Arab-American population.

Throw in Kwame Kilpatrick who just gave up his office as Mayor of Detroit and pleaded guilty to several serious charges. Governor Granholm (Democrat) is seen as forcing Kilpatrick's hand because of her move to remove him from office. There is a lot of black resentment against the white Governor, AND Obama sided with the Governor. Add to that, Kilpatrick was the head of the political machine to get out the AA vote. Obama needed an extraordinary turnout of blacks in Detroit, and now they may not be "energized" to do so.

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thoughtful:

Kiptin Undecided

Contemplate this "Nationally, more than 2 million Democrats have been added to the rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation," according to the Associated Press. "Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states during the same period."

Don't have too bad a nightmare, baby!

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illinoisindie:

@Kiptin,
I suppose we can withold judgment and wait till Mondy, but so far this is not looking good for McCain. As for Kilpatrick in detroit, do you really believe that because he's no longer in the picture AA's would be de-energized to vote for Obama in the election. I think tht reasoning is flawed. Hopefully you'll reflect on the primaries as an indication of what to expect in the general as far as the AA vote is concerned

@Tr
I also agree that Palin-mania is not settling down but for the wrong reasons. There are too many unanswered questions about her... so I think thats a negative that may depress McCain's poll numbers

Based on recent polling numbers of Ramussen this is a loss for McCain...pre and post re-weighting.

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brambster:

Just to add another voice to the crowd...

I think we have now seen the extent of the convention bounces. Gallup most certainly does always give McCain 2 to 4 points in the difference starting around Friday, and ending around Tuesday. Only special happenings seem to affect this trend, and this special happening was the reverse of what would give Obama extra support. I believe this weekend effect has to do with who is home and who is not home, and how Gallup does their call-backs.

Rasmussen on the other hand does not show this sinewave effect. They weight by party ID, and that effectively mutes the weekend effect.

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have been shown to have a house effect that favors McCain. Rasmussen has the strongest McCain house effect of them all with almost 3 points, and Gallup is the third strongest with almost 2 points. These house effects show the difference from the average and not a known, but it is useful to know.

So Rasmussen actually showed a small improvement for Obama in today's tracking poll, and despite their change in party ID weighting that should net about .7 more points for McCain in their polls this month, that still wasn't enough to break the Obama bounce.

The race is close, and the media loves focusing on outliers like the CBS poll, but in reality, the Pollster trend lines of all of these polls is clearly saying that Obama has a 5.6 point lead at this moment, up from around 2 points pre-convention season, and this includes the fact that Rasmussen, Gallup, and YouGov are the top 3 in McCain house effect and these polls together have a net positive effect for McCain by about 2 points.

So if these pollsters have biased methods, the race is more like 8 points for Obama. If turnout is also very high for who helps Obama, it could even be 10 points. But of course things will even out a bit more over time, and a 5 point lead is insurmountable on election day.

I think that Obama is exactly where he needed to be right now. Credit the Palin-mania with helping to keep McCain competitive for now.

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freedomreigns:

Next week's state polls are the only thing that tells you about "bumps" from the conventions. Ignore all the national polls until the debates.

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KipTin:

One should remain cognizant that Rasmussen uses likely voters. Gallup uses registered voters. The Democratic "advantage" of registered voters should definitely show up in the Gallup. And Rasmussen still is weighting their poll with more Dems than Republicans using 3 MONTHS of polling data. (It looks like a lot of Dems are moving to/or back to "Independent" since the end of the primaries.)

When it comes to "likely" voters, historically, the Dems are not as good at turnout as the GOP. McCain has energized his base, and Obama needs to keep his base interested. And do not forget the independents/unaffiliated voters will probably be the final "determinators" of this race. Neither candidate has a lock on them yet. Independents are the largest group among the undecided.

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Snowspinner:

KipTin - Michigan is not in play. McCain hasn't led in a single one of a dozen polls since May. He's not winning Michigan, he never has been winning Michigan. There is no reason, based on the evidence, to think that he will win Michigan.

As for turnout, most reports suggest that McCain has invested relatively little in turnout operations, and has lacked the evangelical support that led to Bush's victories. Meanwhile, Obama has poured focus into ground organization. The numbers thus far on figures like making phone calls have been wildly skewed towards Obama. Even with a bump in ground game from evangelical support of Palin, early investment in this area pays, and McCain doesn't have it, while Obama does.

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KipTin:

I think...illinoisindie... that you should read up on "race relations" in Michigan. It is not positive. There has also been a huge exodus of blacks from Detroit. Their numbers are decreasing as I type. Someone again suggested "walk-around" money for the African-American volunteers in Detroit (mostly because so many are so poor), and like Philadelphia in the Pennsylvania primary, the Obama campaign said "NO." Which is kind of weird because Hillary and McCain have both utilized this LEGAL tactic. For some reason, the Obama campaign prefers to bring in its PAID volunteers from outside to get out the vote.

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brambster:

@Snowspinner

Take MT + ND off the table. Montana is one of those states that Palin will give a big boost to the ticket. This was always iffy for Obama. Tester was hardly able to win against Burns who was nutty and plagued by scandal. This is a very independant electorate in MT, and they most closely compare to Alaska in this sense.

I can't say that ND will have an effect from this, but that was the longest shot of all of the states you listed, and 3 EV's on their own won't turn the tide with the states that are in play.

The battlegrounds that I see are as follows, and also in order of importance:


1) Ohio (must win for McCain)
2) Michigan (because McCain needs more than one path)
3) Colorado (Obama win trumps an Ohio McCain win)
4) Virginia (another path to victory for Obama)
5) New Hampshire (helps McCain protect against Nevada turning the election)
6) Nevada (another path to victory for Obama if he keeps New Hampshire)

Obviously there are other states that are in play, but I believe that these states represent the complete set of tipping points.

I do now believe that Obama is the odd-on favorite in Iowa and New Mexico, and McCain has a pretty good shot in Florida and North Carolina, but if these states go Obama, they will have only done so by greater margins in the more critical states that I indicated above.

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Snowspinner:

KipTin - You're still not changing the basic math. No poll since May has shown McCain leading in Michigan. None. Obama has led by 2-8 points.

Michigan is not in play. Maybe McCain can put it in play. But right now, it is not in play.

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Snowspinner:

brambster - Montanna and North Dakota aren't, for me, off the table because there's just no data out of there. Both of the post-nomination polls in Montana have been good for Obama - a strong win and a tie. And North Dakota is just as close - one poll with 3 points for Obama, one with 3 for McCain, one tie.

Until numbers come out to show that they're not in play, as far as I'm concerned, they're in play and I want more info.


Michigan seems to me less important simply because McCain has no traction there. He hasn't led since May. Until that changes, there's just no there there. Similarly, the only thing to show McCain strong in New Hampshire is a Zogby Internet poll, which isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

Florida is, frankly, closer. Obama has some scattered leads in polling there. My top six list would be Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Indiana. (Coming ahead of Montana and North Dakota simply because those are two states of which Obama would need both.)

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thoughtful:

I have Obama winning over 300 EV and Brampster I disgree with you I think Palin breaks the "no harm done" rule.

She won't help McCain anywhere and in any case she may just be limping on the ticket, I can't see her getting away with the lies she has told, they are not even mistatements with regards Troopergate, Bridge to Nowhere, Earmarks etc.

Even without the above, She's the no 2 on the ticket, she doesn't help in Montana, that's like saying because sje's a woman Hillary supporters will go for her

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KipTin:

McCain does not need to already be leading in Michigan to put it in play. Even the Pollster average has him only 5 points down. AND RCP has Obama at +4.3. The McCain and the GOP have not begun its major campaigning there. And Palin is likely a positive asset for garnering more support in this state. Michigan's unemployment rate is +8% (worse than national) and the Democratic Governor is struggling and getting part of the blame.

Dismissing Michigan is a mistake. Reports show that the Obama campaign is "worried."

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BarackO'Clinton:

MI in play is almost as laughable as MN being in play. I have yet to see a MI poll with on Obama lead of less than 2%. If McCain can't lead in one single MI poll then it's not in play. Just as Obama has never lead in GA, which is also not in play!

McCain needs to win every Bush state (he will likely lose IA and NM) plus steal a few Kerry states (NH, PA) in order to win.

If Obama hold the Kerry staes and picks up NM and CO, it's over. We all know it!

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KipTin:

Silly... Palin who is an accomplished hunter does not help in Montana? The NRA also has Montana targeted. By the time election time comes around the only ones who will be voting for Obama will be the Missoula academics.

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thoughtful:

Kiptin/Undecided

You really do have delusions. The GOP is fighting fires to keep about 15 states that they they won last time round!

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boskop:

@n'obamites!
crowds are mobbing mccainpalin...obama size crowds. check out today's footage.

as for battleground: i still use Wisconsin as my bellweather. if mccain's numbers break even there the rest fall like dominos:ohio, michigan, indiana.

also, there could be an ugly oprah backlash.
women are already pissed at her. between her and glorai steinemit seems only liberal women seem to think they have a lock on true feminism.

oh boy, this is nothing more than the jealous old cats wanting to claw the pretty little kitten to shreds.

let the games begin...

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atreides:

I think the situation in Mi is problematic although I wouldn't worry about AA turnout because of the Kilpatrick situation. More problematic is how the union vote is processing the differences between McCain and Obama. On the surface McCain shouldn't be able to play here. But the race thing makes a difference. Right now I think Ia, Mn, Wi are out of reach and Mccain is wasting his time here. Right now Mi ia ground zero for McCain.
I also wonder why there isn't a greater sense of urgency in the McCain campaign avout Va. Ultimately the old line pollsters say it will remain republican but the polls are real close and I think the obama ground game migh add a point or two to his total. In fact if the Republicans have as much money as they say, then why aren't they investing in a ground game?

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Snowspinner:

KipTin - So Michigan is in play even though McCain hasn't led it in three months because maybe Palin will help?

That's as spinny a definition of "in play" as I've seen. Obama needs to mount a mild defense of MIchigan as long as McCain spends money on it, but frankly, McCain can't afford to try to stretch Obama's resources given that his own are going to be stretched.

As for Montana, we have no data there. Until we have real Montana data, we have to go on what we have - it's a state Obama did well in during the primaries, and where the polls have showed him with a chance. Any theory that Palin will energize the NRA base in Montana is pure speculation, since we don't even know enough about Montana to know who is already energized. McCain may well already have all the NRA voters there. We don't know.

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marctx:

It's funny to listen to the delusional optimism of the Obama nuts. They are so proud that Obama is -12 to the 15 point bounce they expected and the generic democrat. Hillary would be about 20 points ahead right now. Yeah, he's doing great. Also, democrats brag about registering a lot of kids that won't show up on election day. The media and the liberals continue their sexist campaign to bash and trash Superstar Pitbull Palin, but look outside and talk to real Americans. Sarah Palin is drawing huge crowds and democrats should worry because there are a hell of a lot more hockey moms that are going to turn out in record numbers. Conservative moms are jazzed up and they will dwarf those unreliable kids. Don't forget the undecideds. They are all closet McCain supporters. Anyone that thinks Obama is qualified (which he's not) is not embarrassed to support him in polls.

BTW - Wait until the October surprise. :)

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KipTin:

That does not make sense... Win every Bush state = 286EV. Minus New Mexico (5EV) and Iowa (7EV)= 274 EV. McCain still wins. So therefore, you are assuming Obama wins Colorado (7) and keeps Michigan (17)? That is a pretty big leap of faith.

BTW: Many believe that the western Governor Palin will indeed help McCain in the western battleground state of Colorado. The west is full of conservatives (who are different from southern conservative). I think Obamanation is underestimating the cultural values that Palin brings to the McCain ticket.

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brambster:

@Snowspinner

Obviously I'm guessing about Montana, but I'm pretty sure that Palin helps there. I don't however think that it's a critical state this election. It may swing, but it's not critical as it will swing after others do.

Michigan may be a long-shot for McCain, but it is a critically important state for McCain to win and McCain will focus very heavily on that state. If McCain doesn't win Michigan, and Obama wins Colorado, then it's over.

There's still two months left and things can change, but with the government taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, unemployment hitting a 5 year high at 6.1%, and US automakers in need of a bailout, I don't see how Michigan would turn to Republicans this cycle.

I think the only reason why Michigan is a possibility for McCain right now is because polling has been sparse there, and there was some negative sentiment towards Democrats with the whole primary thing. Much like real Democrats switched from Hillary to Obama, I expect that Michigan is long past the hard feelings stage. It may well come off the table as being likely at all to swing with a few more polls.

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KipTin:

Heck of a lot of "hockey moms" in Michigan--

"Palin's hockey-mom ties run deepest in Michigan: Not only does the state boast 37,004 youth hockey players, but Track Palin spent six months of his senior year living in Portage, Mich., while playing for a midget major hockey team."

http://slate.msn.com/id/2199361/

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KipTin:

Why should Michigan turn to the Democrats either? They have not done anything for Michigan but make promises.

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Snowspinner:

marctx - I believe "15 point bounce" was predicted by McCain as part of some ridiculous expectations gaming (the only precedent for such a bounce came in 1992, when the bounce was compounded by Perot dropping out), not by Obama. I, certainly, predicted a smaller bounce given that McCain was going to pick a VP and squash Obama's acceptance speech, and that the Republican convention followed so quickly.

As for registering kids, we'll see. Obama won Iowa by turning out kids. At least in my town (Gainesville, FL. Go Gators) there's a huge ground organization dedicated to turning out UF's vote for Obama. McCain has no office in town - just the RNC one.

As for hockey moms - an odd demographic, as I don't think the sport your kid plays is really a valid political demographic. Nor is it one that matters. There are only 347,061 children playing hockey in the US. The number of hockey moms will be lower than that. It's .1% of the US population. Even if Palin sweeps them, it's not an election.

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brambster:

BTW all, if you haven't figured out, replying to KipTin/Undecided/NickBerry/Nicolee will only net an automatic reply straight back. If the facts of the current discussion doesn't help her cause, she will just pull something else out.

Nicolee has posted on over 70 sites this election season, and used at least 3 names on this site. She has an agenda, and that agenda isn't to discuss polls or the election in any constructive way.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q=NickBerry&as_epq=&as_oq=mccain+obama+clinton&as_eq=&num=10&lr=&as_filetype=&ft=i&as_sitesearch=&as_qdr=all&as_rights=&as_occt=any&cr=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&safe=off

BTW, in about 5 minutes she will again claim to have reported me.

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thoughtful:

Marxtx

You know this Rick Generic poll you keep on espousing is nonsense.

At the moment I am waiting to hear an a serious interview with Palin.

With regards the state polls the Repubs misinformation campaign with Rasmussen having polled since Wednesday in Va, Oh, Fl, Co and Mi. These guys need to pretend they have mommentum!

Its all smoke and mirrors and lies!

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thoughtful:

The battle ground polls out on Monday incorporating the Convention bounce!

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KipTin:

Obamanation is mistaken if they think that the McCain campaign (and RNC) are now hurting for money. You need to catch up on the facts. (Try Bloomberg News.) If anything, Palin is already a GOP fund-raising machine. The GOP are now well situated to compete with Obama money-wise. Add to that the fact that the Obama campaign has been spending money faster then it is coming in. Obamanation is very expensive to maintain.

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boskop:

@marctx

while you know i tend to side with you, the new voters ARE a threat to mccain, no doubt.

but that can be counterbalanced as you stated by the feisty independents and ladies who might run the pimply brats down to get to the polling first.

but what can turn this election in virtually any direction is the old deus ex machina, that geo political econo cultural and un anticipated event that plays into either one's camp.

clearly drilling is the mantra of mccain. when bush announced he'd lift the ban on the gulf, oil plunged. and when he said he'd tap the reserves in the wake of hurricanes..it went down more.

for mccain to make this work for him and the lousy employment numbers, he must explain that oil production reduces inflation, jacks up business, creates jobs. but he better hurry.

then there is the other outside event stuff: stuff like woodward's new book denouncing the
machinery of the surge which plays to obama.

but if palin's "star is born" image mounts and she feels comfortable biting back oprah and steinem, you can be sure that the celebrity hungry americans will give her lift that obama once enjoyed. she could very well make him a has been.

so let's see how these things play out. daily tracking is garbage. it's been the same for weeks. one bounce cancels the other out. this country is perfectly divided.'

could anyone wish for more in a race?? yippee!

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Snowspinner:

KipTin - The question is, does McCain hold all of the following: Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, North Dakota + Montana.

If he does not hold all of those and Obama takes the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico (All evidence right now is that he will do this) then Obama wins.

That's the math for McCain, and it's not good for him at all.

Calling Palin a western governor is a bit misleading. It's not a traditional western state. It's it's own little world.

Similarly, the hockey moms of Michigan just don't seem like a factor to me. Even if all 37,004 hockey playing children are not siblings, and thus equate to 37,004 hockey moms, and even if all 37,004 of them vote their child's sport of choice over other actually political concerns, you're looking at .003% of the state's population.

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Snowspinner:

Sorry, my bad - that's .3%, not .003%. Dropped a decimal point in calculating that.

I'm sure that .3% will suddenly make it a decisive demographic.

But while I'm adding another reply, let me point out that RNC money is not as good as McCain money, and DNC money is not as good as Obama money.

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boskop:

@snowspinner!

security moms, remember?
they are numerous, they are fierce and a force to be reckoned with.

that comment of yours is very naive.
but hey, i never indulge in predictions that's just dumb to do. what's really cool is tracking
these cultural clusters as they spin first in one direction and then the next.

hockey moms not a force in michigan..we shall see.

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Ryan in MO:

I'm not entirely sure who these people are polling. I live in Branson, Missouri, which is right in the middle of probably the most conservative part of the Bible Belt. While, there have been some older people visiting my hotel that seem up on McCain, but most people I know are all about Obama. They played Obama's acceptance speech at Engler Block and there were over 1,000 young people fired up about Obama, here in SW Missouri. most of the middle-aged people here are behind Obama as well. With the amount of Obama enthusiasm in this part of the state, I can't see McCain being ahead in the less conservative parts of the states. I'd also like to point out Indiana, where my family lives, and most of my friends from before I moved, are very Obama leaning. (This includes my parents who just were big GWB supporters both of the last election like Obama.) I have to say right now Missouri is actually very blue, and Indiana is very likely blue as well. I have to say, I see 35-40 states going blue this cycle, and 15 states at best going red.

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boskop:

@thoughful

"smoke mirrors lies!"

you sound very desperate out there today resorting to conspiracy theory. but you guys should know best, if the shoe fits wear it!

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boskop:

@ryan...
how old are you?

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Ryan in MO:

I am 27. Which I guess is still young, but 18 seems long ago.

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KipTin:

"CNBC Exclusive Interview: CNBC's Maria Bartiromo Speaks One-on-One with Vice Presidential Candidate and Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin (Transcript Included)"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26462569?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

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thoughtful:

Boskop

You are in very articulate mode.

I agree with much that you write but not the conclusions.

What all these Lwawyers doing up in alaska interfering with an investigation into the governors conduct.

Why won't the Governor you know the one got picked over a week ago have a press conference or interviews?

This election isn't tied. even in the aftermath of The Repub Convention!

Ras, commissioned by FOX ,has got State polls out on Monday the timing could not be more favorable for McCain. Trying to get the big Mo going!

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boskop:

@ryan

figured. 'nuff said.
i wiki'd your town. pretty darn small. extrapolating trends from your youthful vantage point is kinda risky. but good luck anyway.

@kiptin

great. will take a look or listen on monday to cnbc.

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thoughtful:

Kiptin

That was recorded before she was nomuinated

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Robi:

Ok I know I've said this a million times but:

national polls don't matter:

Electoral map does.

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KipTin:

There is NO rhyme or reason to say that "RNC money is not as good as McCain money, etc...."

Both monies can be spent on the presidential campaign. And in fact, the RNC has set up a separate fund that has many fewer restrictions than McCain money. (I am not sure what the DNC has done.)

____________________

Robi:

BTW I think the Ras and Gallup poll show that the yougov poll (42-39) is not accurate.

____________________

boskop:

@thoughful
you seem so apoplectic today! what gives?

palin is interviewing. try to see bartiromo's piece on her. it should air on monday if you can get cnbc.

you are so hungry for her flesh. is there something going on here that is shall we say, more than politics?

it sounds kinda cat fighty to me which is so sad!

anyway...you begin to sound like the republicans hooting about obama's intimacy with the press. TW: his face on every magazine cover with michelle and kids kinda makes it tough for his henchmen to yell"props" about palin and trig. r to yell, "hands off my inviolate family"

maybe he should get his damn mug off the glossies and give penelope cruz more room to shine.

____________________

Snowspinner:

KipTin - RNC money also gets split among Congressional races, and is basically only good for attack ads. In both regards, it's more limited.

boskop - There's no "we shall see" about hockey moms in Michigan. There are no more than 37,004 of them. They are .3% of the population of Michigan. There is no evidence that they are likely to vote based on what sport their son plays. (If they are, then soccer moms should go for Obama, a known English soccer fan) But even if they are, and even if they would have all gone for Obama were it not for Palin, you've moved the polls .6% - Obama has led by more than that in every poll in Michigan. You can't "we shall see" that to pretend your absurd contention that they are a force in Michigan holds some validity. They are not a force in Michigan. They are not a meaningful demographic. Period. Full stop. Unless you can present some actual evidence that they are a numerically significant demographic with identifiable political leanings that Sarah Palin specifically shifts, you have no claim here.

____________________

KipTin:

Well, the premise was that Palin had not done any "serious" interviews.

thoughtful: "At the moment I am waiting to hear an a serious interview with Palin."

So a few days will change the interview content?

____________________

Robi:

KipTin:

A few days gives her more training for the press. Some people could argue that not being able to handle the press and being the VP nominee is not a good thing.

In other words, if she's the VP nominee now, why does she have to learn about handling the press. A VP or president (but McCain and Obama both have done interviews) should be ready to take questions immediately when they are president from the press.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

I've payed attention to elections since 96, I've been of voting age since 2000. I firmly believe this will be a record year for youth turnout, and the under 35 vote will make this election. This will be the deciding factor this year. Factor this in to the polls, and I don't think it's a longshot, in saying the true battleground states are the states where these polls are showing McCain with 10-15 point advantages.

____________________

Robi:

ryan:

I don't think so...what is the youth population in these states that are rv?

____________________

boskop:

Robi

hey hi there~
polls are people things right. listen if ras or cnn called me i might goof them just because they
have bothered me too much already.

but i agree with you, ,"it's the electoral map, stupid" as james carville might say today, he being theone that coined, "it's the economoy stupid"

but you ARe right. it is the electors who matter and screw the popular vote. in which case, obama could actually be in deep kimchee.

see, i figure wisconsin falls to mccain. i cannot for the love of allah figure out why mark and company has never changed the Wisconsin graph. you might want to take a closer look at the trends there.

right now, i'd call it dead even. when it pops for mccain ..say thursday, you might need to chomp on a tasty munchie brownie if you know what i mean.

a prediction?
nah, it's just reading the trend lines accurately. if i'm wrong, hey, big deal. who cares. but if i'm right, uh oh, obama blanches and slaps michelle around a bit. BTW what WAS he alluding to in that diner interview in NH when he said, "the biggest problem i've had in recent memory? problems in my marriage."

i do not lie. i just watch like the rest of you but without the wax in my ears.

____________________

KipTin:

You do not understand...snowspinner... that there is not a $2300 limit when donating to the RNC fund. And you seem to think the ONLY priority this election year is the Presidential race, when the Dems are trying to get more power in Congress (especially the Senate.) Do you like the idea of Obama sucking up all the money for himself and leaving the Dems Congressional candidates hanging?

Like I said, the RNC and McCain campaign feel good about their financial status in comparison to Obama. There is no longer a significant Obama advantage.

Regarding "hockey moms"... read "share-cultural values" which is regional and not only mothers of hockey players.

____________________

Robi:

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1839190,00.html?cnn=yes

I found this interesting...what do you guys think?

____________________

Ryan in MO:

Robi:

I don't know specifics, but I'd have to say the 17 and eligible to 35 is around 20% give or take 5% depending on the state. I see we are realizing what is at stake here.

____________________

Robi:

boskop:

What trend lines are you reading about wisconsin?

____________________

KipTin:

Uh... Palin already knows how to "handle the press." Do you really think she got to be Governor without scrutiny from the good ol' boys of Alaska?

Or do you mean "handle the Obama press" when they ask stupid sexist questions and promote innuendo? Well, then I guess maybe that press does not deserve any interviews.

Similar to how Obama never does interviews with FOX unless there are serious negotiations and "preconditions."

____________________

boskop:

@snowspinner

hockeymoms is a euphemism. a generic term. your specifics are a crack up. especially that little number three at the end

hope they dont get the flu and ruin it for mccain.

you gotta see things a little broader kiddo..hockey moms, soccer moms, security moms, mom moms, career moms, single moms, caring moms, exhausted moms, tv dinner moms,
cant get around to cleaning the toilet moms.

they are the ballast of the united states especially in these swing regions. they swung for bush though they are independent by and large and they will swing towards the cause that resonates best to their personal agendas.

that is still an unknown. but if palin triggers a knee jerk response in them where they fury up over some over the top marginalization of this woman,watch out.

____________________

brambster:

@Robi

It's not that Palin can't handle the press, or that she can't deliver a good speech, it's that McCain only met her once before the pick and she needs to be briefed on not just McCain's platform through and through, but she needs to take Foreign Affairs 101 since there are just so many gottcha questions to trap her with.

I do believe that they will try to shield her from doing anything but attacking and speaking about the topics that she is most familiar with and sell well to the masses. The whole energy thing she is comfortable with, but beyond that I don't know that there is anything...yet.

Palin was a journalism major and worked as a TV sportscaster in addition to being a vocal mayor and now 2 year governor. She can speak with authority, though she has been known to grandstand and use rhetoric. I don't underestimate her intelligence, nor her ability to present herself; I underestimate her ability to lead the entire country.

____________________

Snowspinner:

KipTin - I do not see how the higher fundraising caps make RNC money, dollar for dollar, equivalent to McCain's money. The fact of the matter is, the stuff RNC and DNC money can be used for in terms of Presidential races is more limited than what campaign money can be used for. That doesn't make RNC and DNC money useless. But a dollar of RNC money and a dollar of Obama money are not equivalent.

Which is an obvious statement, since if Obama and DNC money were the same, Obama wouldn't bother having a campaign fund - he'd just get his supporters to always donate straight to the DNC.

Your point about Congressional races is immaterial. My point was, from McCain's perspective, RNC money is not as good as his matching funds dollar for dollar. Part of that is that RNC money goes to Congressional races. Yes, those matter. But they don't matter to the Presidential race we're discussing.

And of course the Republicans say they feel good about their campaign status. They also said Obama would enjoy a 15 point convention bounce. It's called lying.

As for hockey moms, you're still being very shifty here. What do you see as the demographic? Because the cultural values demographic and the hockey demographic don't overlap well - the hockey demographic is going to skew richer because as sports go, hockey has one of the most expensive equipment budgets. Whereas the cultural values demographic is usually taken to be a working class demographic. So you're still not identifying a describable demographic here. What gender, race, age, and income level are you imagining these "hockey moms" to be? What are their top issues?

____________________

Robi:

KipTin:

Proclamations does nothing for your argument. Alaska press and national press are two WAY DIFFERENT medias.

Stop talking about the "obama press" and everything like that. You sound like your...what's the word..."whining"

____________________

boskop:

@robiiiiiiiii

look at the august pollssssss
the gap is closing........
do your homework, remember last night??

____________________

Robi:

Oh yeah last night:

"I read facts.History.Religion"

I did but I don't see McCain in any recent poll being less than 5 points behind.

____________________

thoughtful:

Boskop

I saw the interview last week it was done before she got the nod and had no idea at the time she was getting it!

The woman is evil!

http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/09/05/alaskans-speak-in-a-frightened-whisper-palin-is-%E2%80%9Cracist-sexist-vindictive-and-mean%E2%80%9D/

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boskop:

@snowspinner..

since you are obsessive about numeric accuracy, please accept my apology.

i suggested in the previous post that the dangling number on your hocky mom citation was three. i am utterly ashamed and embarassed, it was actually a four. four little moms instead of three little moms.

how on earth did they root them out? such very good gumshoes they must be whoever came up with that ASS ASININE number.

____________________

boskop:

@thoghtful

how come if i knew she was getting it weeks ago and said so in this post, that you think she didnt know or firmly suspect it>>


anyway, how was the interview. what did she say that makes you call her out on it?

come on, cough it up.

____________________

Robi:

boskop:

I'm just curious, did you read any of the journals I recommended?

____________________

boskop:

@thoughtful

if she were a guy, say a tall black guy with a big wide smile and were tapped for veep with the exact same resume...

could you for one moment transport yourself with tinkerbell to that faraway land?

____________________

boskop:

@robi

what journals?

____________________

Robi:

boskop:

One of the biggest problems McCain has with making this choice is that he talked about experience experience experience and knocked Obama for it and said in an interview this year that he would pick his VP based on their experience and ability to deal with foreign policy issues such as Iraq. So people are pissed for many reasons, but one major component of it is that he either doesn't care about experience and lied about it, or he's just plain lost it.

____________________

Robi:

The links I sent yesterday?

____________________

thoughtful:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122065537792905483.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

@Boskop

Draw your own conclusions. I know you don't think she's fit to be POTUS, as I know your bright!

____________________

thoughtful:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122065537792905483.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

@Boskop

Draw your own conclusions. I know you don't think she's fit to be POTUS, as I know your bright!

____________________

cinnamonape:

The interview By CNBC's Bartiromo and Palin occurred BEFORE the convention. She had not been selected as a VP candidate at that time. And it dealt primarily with her views on ANWR, drilling and how Alaskan's benefit from the oil industry exploiting their resources...that they are "partners" with the oil industry. That Alaska gets 85-90% of its State operating budget from oil and gas leases.

Is McCain really going to increase taxes and substantially increase lease rates on oil and gas corporations that drill off-shore or on Federal lands? If Palin thinks the Alaska "model" (akin to socialist Norway's) is so great, shouldn't McCain and Palin apply it to the extractive resource industries in lower 48?

But McCain has actually suggested that corporate taxes be reduced...and wants to keep in place the Bush tax cuts that allowed 90% of the largest corporations in the US to pay no Federal taxes.

____________________

boskop:

@robi

re:wisconsin

correct!!
scroll down and see where he was months previos to that.

then check out the graph. if you think mark or eric drew that accurately then all i can say is barack obama is a short fat guy.

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thoughtful:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122065537792905483.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

@Boskop

Draw your own conclusions. I know you don't think she's fit to be POTUS, as I know your bright!

____________________

illinoisindie:

can someone tell me what on earth is a hockey-mom??? Im sorry but I happen to be one of those suburban "mom's" and I know about mini-vans and soccer moms. Personally I think the branding is a bit off, the demographic for suburban "soccer moms" is way bigger. The republicans missed the mark on that one.

My point is how is this relevant?!?!

____________________

Robi:

Boskop:

We'll wait for the next polls before we speculate more.

____________________

Jacob S:

Although I typically do not read much into national polling, I find these polls interesting.

First, I hate to break it to McCain supporters, but if these polls reflect the high-tide mark of the convention bounce, McCain is in big trouble. As I have said in recent posts, if McCain does not get AHEAD of Obama within the next two weeks, Obama is going to shut this race down with $150+ million of advertising and voter turnout. I find this period of the election analogous to the days following Super Tuesday in the Democratic primary.

Second, I notice that McCain's numbers are going up, but Obama's numbers are not really going down. If Palin is solidifying BOTH McCain's base and Obama's base, that is not really a good sign for McCain.

I also have some reason to believe that Obama has a wider lead in the Electoral College. More on that topic later...

____________________

boskop:

@thoghtful

you are kind, complement dul accepted and likewise i am sure.

that us why i am going to spell your moniker correctly for the very first time:thoughtful.

there. i did it.
however, and you knew there'd be one...my thinking she can be omni-potus has little to do with my low iq as your choice for obama has everything to do with your gargantuan one.

was it not the brilliant al gore who rallied the unbelievers about obama by citing lincoln's paultry experience as a one term congressman no less?

but now that we're on the sbject...i always thought lincoln was dragging his feet big time to replace his generals. he could've used more experience before masterminding or mucking up that war.

so i agree with you, neither lincoln, nor obama nor palin are POTUS material.

but harold stassen...man now there was experience. right?

____________________

atreides:

I wonder how Palin's situation really plays in the west. If it were Obama's daughter, I can't help but think that he would be universally damned out there. Is this a case of situational morality or will their be a backlash to the "shotgun wedding" and the Down's Syndrome baby. How many conservative women will ultimately believe that she should be at home with the "baby" and helping her daughter out with hers. I don't know how many women I talked to that didn't like Hillary because she didn't leave Bill. Isn't this just a corollary situation.
As to the Indiana situation, most pundits say it will stay red but polls say that its really close. Again the Obama ground game there is pretty potent. McCain is in Co today so he seems to already understand that his base is frayed. And as far as an Oct surprise, isn't that when the Alaskan legislative investigation on troopergate is supposed to come in. Lastly, what about the Fannie/Freddie deal. More bad economic news can't help McCain or has he inoculated himself from it by becoming the "Reformer".

____________________

boskop:

@robi

i dont do links. but thanks.

____________________

Snowspinner:

boskop - You've got a wildly broad set of demographics there. In practice, modern political demographics are much more microtargeted than that. Please pick an identifiable demographic you think Palin appeals to that will swing Michigan.

____________________

Snowspinner:

bokstop - As for the hanging 4, it's from USA Hockey's breakdown of hockey players by state. You'd have to ask them how they're that precise. I got the figure from KipTin's post earlier of this link: http://slate.msn.com/id/2199361/

____________________

Robi:

"i dont do links. but thanks."

What?

____________________

boskop:

@snowspinner

i dont haf ta.

numbers contain other numbers which can be applied to other numbers. get it?
in other words, read atreides post on that idiot number of yours.

though i hardly believe atreides is a savant there the point is, the number you cite is obsessive compulsively anal.

one hockey mom is also a union mom is also counted as an independent is also counted as a white, a black, middle middle class, a dollar menu snorter.

just sit tight, i know for people like you numbers are a kinda comfort blanket but they never work.

no single person hasnt got their foot in at least ten other demo's.


____________________

thoughtful:

Boskop

Unfortunately John McCain's time was 2000 and the same professionals that are running his campaign did him in. and we got AWOL Bush in stead of Gore.

Sorry I am not an ageist but I know at 57 even with the benefit of experience I am not as effective now as I was 10 years ago.

McCain unfortunately is way past his sell by date and its showing very badly!

Palin appears accused of being a fiscally irresponsible mayor, a racist, an abuser of power, and a liar and there is substance behind all the allegations. Bad Pick!

____________________

boskop:

@thoughtful

perhaps there is truth to these allegations.

it is not my style to dispel anything without a good read. so i shall wait for the evidence.

i am hardly bowled over by mccain but i despise obama. in which case, since i will vote no matter what that leaves barr.

i'd like to see his convention when does that happen?

seriously, though, i should reveal that i was one of the loudest and angriest suffragists
at the supreme court come bush 2's inauguration.

what a disgrace. but the DNC gang banged hillary just the way the four good ole boys and one weird chick did the same to gore.

no way in hell am i voting for the DNC's fair haired buy...kinda.

____________________

Snowspinner:

bokstop - Indeed. Demographics are complex. Regardless, they're real, they're good predictors, and they matter. Yes, there's a knock-on effect - win more union voters and you win more white male voters. Win more college educated voters and you win more wealthy voters. But knowing your demographics matters.

____________________

Robi:

how did the DNC screw Hillary over?

____________________

boskop:

@snowspinner

knowing human nature matters more.
numbers can be made to work for any argument. they are slaves to convictions.
obama can take one set of numbers to prove a point and mccain can take another entirely different set to disprove obama's.

what it really comes down to is 'feel good'.
that's something in the air, a buzz, a spark.

that's what obama is trying so hard to keep stoking, a smoldering wildfire that lit the country but is now becoming just a wee bit annoying.


____________________

thoughtful:

Apparently Sarah Palin has an hour show with Greta Van Susteran in about 20 minutes time on Fox News!! You know a little soft ball!

Its not been advertised. so who knows?

____________________

brambster:

I think you're talking about the Fox News documentary on Palin which airs tomorrow.

They really ought to count Fox News as a 527 group.

____________________

Robi:

brambster:

I hear that.

____________________

Snowspinner:

boskop - That's not because the numbers don't tell us anything, but because analyzing the numbers is hard, and it's easy to create misleading narratives with the numbers.

In truth, good analysis of the numbers tells you more than holistic feelings about the election.

____________________

thoughtful:

Brampster

I am watching it now, you are right it is a documentary. Its a PROMOTIONAL HOUR LONG ADVERTISEMENT

____________________

brambster:

@boskop

Just curious, have you ever invested in biometric stocks? I get the feeling that I know you.

____________________

Lionidze:

Conservatives are probably overestimating the impact of Palin on anyone other than a member of the radical right. Once Palin's beliefs are widely known, especially her embrace of creationism, desire to burn books she doesn't like, her religion's speaking in tongues and her belief in the Rapture, most independents will rightly assume she's too far right to vote for. Her tape at her church in Wasilla may appeal to evangelicals, but it is downright scarey to everyone else. Palin will be a general liability before the campaign is over, helping only to secure McCain's most conservative base.

Palin was not properly vetted and has not had to undergo any sort of scrutiny that most candidates have to endure. Republicans cry out against the "liberal press" as a way of trying to stop any inquiry, but it won't work. Palin is much more radical than either McCain or Bush and it will not help the ticket when her true opinions are well-known.

____________________

Snowspinner:

Lionidze - Actually, her support of Creationism doesn't put her at all outside of the mainstream. Sad but true. And McCain needs to secure the base - low Republican turnout gives Virginia to Obama, and that's game over.

____________________

thoughtful:

Lionidze

She is 100% Redneck!!

I am watching this Fox Documentary of her life story, Goebbals could have made it for the Nazis, its pure propaganda. But they are staying away from anything other than the rinse!

____________________

atreides:

Isn't she going to have to explain her views on creationism or intelligent design? I know Ben Stein tried to but most people buy into evolution and can reconcile that with the Bible. But she's eventually going to have to disavow some of these views to remain viable. With most Americans understanding the true reasons why we're in Iraq, making it "God's wish" won't sit to well with them. Can she somehow become sympathetic explaining all of this stuff.

____________________

Snowspinner:

thoughtful - If you're going to go with the "compare to Nazis" thing, at least get your people right. The Nazi filmmaker was Leni Reifenstahl.

atreides - I wish you were right, but evolution has about 50% support in the US. She's in the mainstream. /sigh

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

niTpiK said...
"Also note that Lebanese-American Nader with only 2 -3% can make a real difference in MI which has a huge Arab-American population."

Would it make you think different if you knew that Ralph Nader is a Maronite Christian, and most Arab-Americans are Muslim?

Didn't think so, as that means you would be thinking, and that's something you've never exhibited at this site.

Most Arab-Americans would consider that since Nader's a Christian, there's no real reason to vote for or against him except on policies, and they don't agree with him on policies.

BTW - Michigan's population of residents of Arab descent is estimated at about 300,000. That is about 3% of Michigan's population of 10,095,643.

Then you have to figure in the age factor. If 25% is under 18, it would basically match the figure for Michigan as a whole (according to the Census 2006 est., 24.5% of Michigan residents are under 18). But "we all know that Arabs breed like rabbits" (as the Arab-haters would say), so let's say the under 18 Arab residents are better than 30%, shall we?

Arab-haters - the ones who call people from the Middle East 'rag heads'.

Arab-haters - the ones who continually try to assert that because Senator Obama's middle name is 'Hussein' that he is Muslim.

I think I've seen several posters here make those assertions, and most, if not all, of them support McCain.

Mike

____________________

thoughtful:

Snowspinner

I meant Rupert Murdock.

____________________

zotz:

The main thing in Obama's favor concerning the Arabs is that they are a very well educated group, similar to Jews in that respect. They know a vote for Nader is a vote for McCain and they won't do it. BTW, in 2004 Nader got LESS THAN half of one percent in MI. This is one of Kiptin's red herrings. There are other things to worry about.

I wish someone would tell me why Gallup is so much more volatile than Rasmussen tracking.

____________________

boomshak:

McCain got a 12 point bounce!

For those of you who don't understand polls based upon 3 day moving averages, let me explain.

In order to go from an 8 point lead to only a 2 point lead in Gallup's Poll in only 2 days, this means that polling Friday actually showed McCain with a 4.2 POINT LEAD!

Here's the analysis:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-96.html

"Although the topline results don't make it obvious, it appears that John McCain had a fairly strong night of polling in the daily tracking polls, which are the only numbers we have to look at today.

The Gallup tracker now shows Barack Obama leading by 2 points, down from 4 a day ago. When I attempt to estimate the daily results from the topline numbers, however, I get the following:


Wednesday: Obama +7.8
Thursday: Obama +2.4
Friday: McCain +4.2

So Obama's numbers are being propped up by a strong night of polling on Wednesday, which will cycle out tomorrow. He also held up relatively well on Thursday following Sarah Palin's speech (note: our estimate of his Thursday numbers has been revised slightly upward from yesterday's figures because of a methodological improvement I made to my tracking poll algorithm). But yesterday, McCain had a good night, most likely leading by somewhere in the range of 4 points. There is a good chance that tomorrow's Gallup numbers will show a tie or a McCain lead."

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

Just some interesting fodder...something for everyone to mull over.

Checking the Rass poll from the same time in 2004 (2 days after the end of the RNC) and comparing it to this year (2 days after end of RNC) and we get this...

2004
Bush 51
Kerry 47

Bush +4

2008
McCain 46
Obama 49

Obama +3


That was the largest lead Bush had in the Rass poll for the rest of the season, except for one matching day in late Sept.

Make of it what you will...

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

Just some interesting fodder...something for everyone to mull over.

Checking the Rass poll from the same time in 2004 (2 days after the end of the RNC) and comparing it to this year (2 days after end of RNC) and we get this...

2004
Bush 51
Kerry 47

Bush +4

2008
McCain 46
Obama 49

Obama +3


That was the largest lead Bush had in the Rass poll for the rest of the season, except for one matching day in late Sept.

Make of it what you will...

____________________

boomshak:

In the end, the reason why America will NOT elect Barack Obama is that we do not want Liberals running our country with unchecked power.

America is only 15% Liberal. It ain't gonna happen. Especially if Russia and Iran are acting scary right before the election. People may say they want "change" but when it gets down to it and they fear for their safety, they will go with tried and true every time.

Mark my words. This thing is already over. McCain-Palin wins by a comfortable margin.

P.S., Obama is a celebrity, but Palin is just so darned likable in the way Reagan was likable. Politically, that's the best trait in the world.

____________________

boomshak:

Obama is the "New Coke" of politics...

____________________

Snowspinner:

boomshak - Nice selective quoting of the 538 post. Now go ahead to the bits about how bounces fade and how Obama will probably be leading by the end of next week.

____________________

boomshak:

Snowspinner,

Well, maybe it's just me, but I prefer to go with "actual numbers" and not what someone "guesses" will happen in a week.

Also, we have never had a Sarah Palin before. We'll see.

____________________

Robi:

America is 15% liberal?

What poll says that?

____________________

Dana Adini:

i think we all need to wait for the polls in battleground states. The national polls post convention are slightly in favor of obama but it's long way from over.

Palin will make this election interesting. She will either bomb or galvenize the GOP base. Should be fun

____________________

zotz:

boomshak-
"Obama is the "New Coke" of politics..."

Yeah, and Palin is the koolaid! Sorry but some of us still don't want to drink it!

____________________

Robi:

I'm sorry but does boomshack actually believe the US is 15% liberal?

____________________

Snowspinner:

boomshak - You want actual numbers? OK. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/what-convention-bounce-looks-like.html

The bounce will peak today and tomorrow, and fall off rapidly from there. If the bounce has the tracking poll average with a 1 point McCain lead or so, which seems probable, that will disappear within the week.

____________________

brambster:

Nate's estimate of daily results is a guess at how it works.

I do not believe he takes into account callbacks which can change a previous day's results.

It's also a bit nutty to think that McCain's speech produced a 6.6 point bounce in one day.

____________________

boomshak:

Sorry, I should have said 15% Very Liberal, which is supported by pretty much every exit poll during the Primaries.

Obama, Biden, Pelosi and Reid are Very Liberal and , given absolute power, would have no motivation to govern to the middle, would they?

____________________

Tunanoodle:

Seems to me there are a few soft ideas to consider. That is, ideas that can't be quantified in the polls just yet.

1) Are both sides equally energized by Palin?

2) Is the common wisdom among Hillary supporter that "Palin is no Hillary"

3) Has America's reservoir for fear and jingoism been tapped by eight years of Bush?

4) Has the Palin story drowned out the story of a true American hero…McCain?

5) Will the effort to emphasize Palin's right versus her left (i.e. Natural Gas, Windfall Profit Tax, Environment) paint her as another Bush…or a very attractive Mike Huckabee?

6) Does the Blogisphere break left?

7) Do issues of leftover flags ultimately make those who were likely to vote for Obama feel like they are being called Un-American?

8) Does this "short-circuit" all experience discussions?

9) Will America respond to the most clearly biased left media we have ever seen?

I wish Russert had lived to see this!

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Robi:

Russert would of kicked Palin's ass.

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Tunanoodle:

agreed Robi

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Mike In Maryland:

Tunanoodle said...
"7) Do issues of leftover flags ultimately make those who were likely to vote for Obama feel like they are being called Un-American?"

Do you mean STOLEN flags?

STOLEN from the Obama campaign?

STOLEN flags that the McCain campaign received as STOLEN goods?

Get the facts, not what was stated on Faux News.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/06/thrown-away-flags-story-f_n_124499.html

Mike

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zotz:

boomshak-
Well we sure are lucky that we have reasonable moderates like Palin to vote for. I'm sure women will love Palin telling them what they are allowed to do with their own bodies. And having her ban books at the local library is an added plus!

Also, knowing that God was in favor of the Iraq war is such a relief. I'm so glad Gov. Palin told us that. Knowing that there is a simple right and wrong answer to every question is what we need. I'm so grateful to John McCain for giving us Sarah Palin!

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Tunanoodle:

I have some leftover paper plates from the Fourth of July.
They have stars and stripes on them.
How should I dispose of them properly?

I really, really do honor the service of John McCain. Please don't turn it into this nonsense.

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brambster:

I wish Russert had lived to see this!

Me too! He was a hell of a guy, and he was the absolute best at humanizing politics.

:(

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Snowspinner:

Here's a question - to what extent does self-identification as "very liberal" (or, more accurately, lack of self-identification as such) correspond with actual disagreement with Obama's positions? That is to say, is it the liberal ideology people break from, or is it the label "very liberal?"

Given the 24 year project starting with Reagan of making "liberal" an attack, it would not at all surprise me if, despite reluctance to identify as a liberal, the American people are actually a fairly liberal bunch on economic issues, and slightly left of supposed center on social issues.

But I don't know. I'd be interested in the rate of agreement with Obama's specific policy positions compared to the rate of identification as "very liberal."

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Tunanoodle:

One more Russert comment.

I always thought "I like that guy." Cause he thinks like me.

When he died I realized everybody in the country thought that as well.

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Tunanoodle:

"Bush" has become as shameful a word as "Liberal"

This election will be about which is the least "American."

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pion:

On another subject, any one wonder what ever happened to the somewhat racist suggestions that Obama could not win the Latino vote? Back then, Hillary and McCain supporters were suggesting a 'deep' rivalry between Black and Brown to explain Clinton's popularity with Hispanic voters. In some ways, the current clear strength of Obama with that demographic is an indication that Kennedy was right when he said that Obama is on the right side of history---I am not referring to the changing demographics of America, but to Americans putting less of an emphasis on the race of their candidates and more of an emphasis on issues. I think Hispanics get it when it comes to Republicans. In contrast to McCain campaign aide Schmidt who believes that this election is about personalities, I think that Obama will ultimately win because he's staying on message (pounding on his economic message) and ultimately, Americans will vote on the issues they care about---no matter how winning a personality Palin has.

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zotz:

Divide and conquer is Schmidt's plan. Palin is supposed to divide the Hillary Dems from Obama while solidifying the Rep base. I don't know if will work. So far, the experts say "no". The Rep convention bounce should peak Sun. or Mon. By then we will know how many people believed all that BS. I think we will be back where we began two weeks ago, either tied or with a narrow Obama lead.

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Tunanoodle:

Palin was more like a move in a pool game where you have no shot.

Knock all the balls around.

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change:

To Tunanoodle: Obama has a tough road to 270 electoral college votes...Once he hits 260 he then must win one of a host of tough states...florida, colorado, virginia or ohio. Mccain voted against the G.I bill so this may tip the scales in obama's favour in Virginia, but that is still a stretch considering its historic record of being red. Also, things are really tightening up in Michigan which considering its economic downturn is a downright shock! I am an Obama supporter because i agree with him on the issues, but hillary would still run a stronger race. She owned Mcsame in ohio and florida-that would make him toast!

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saywhat90:

show me where other then the one report obama has been show to be very liberal. he has never expressed it in his speeches or his policies. conservative try to say that because of his stance of the iraq war. but if that si the cae then alot of american are very liberal. but we know that is not true. see that the funny thing about america. you can actually for or against something and not have to be labeled something which is false. i happen to be pro-life but i am bvoting democrat. i was for the war in afghanistan and against the war in iraq because despite what the sean hannities say al qeada was not in iraq. it isnt im a anti-war liberal hack. when war is necessary i am all for it. when the threat is real i am reay to serve my country in whatever capacity i can. but at the same time i do not feel i need to agree with every decision to go war(and yes it was a decision in the case of iraq). it was right to go to afghanistan and wrong to go to iraq. and dont give the we did it for the iraqi people line. if it was about spreading democracy then why isnt n. korea, darfur region, and other regions where freedom is threatened and not being protected. i dont hear any outrage about that.

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change:

to saywhat 90: he is too liberal is a code for we really messed up in the last year, and we are desperately hoping this stick so we can win and start a war with iran, and continue the evangelical extremists agenda! lol

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Snowspinner:

change - Things are tightening in Michigan? Obama averages a 4.3 percent lead in August polls (ignoring Zogby Internet), and 4.6 percent in July. Michigan is unchanging.

As for the tough road, he can win any of the four you listed, or Nevada, or Montana + North Dakota. Right now 538 has him leading in Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia of those.

I'll take those odds. Hillary would have had a much more limited path - Ohio. Florida. She probably wouldn't have had the Iowa and New Mexico strength to make Colorado or Nevada winners, and she didn't have the Virginia strength. Maybe she could have scrambled some white south path to victory, but it's unclear what that would have been. She had two routes to victory. Obama has six.

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saywhat90:

oh and another how does it make you a maverick when only disagree with your party a few times in 26 years of office. and how do you stay a maverick when you have changed your position to make the base happy on every issue. and how are you a maverick when the vp pick you made is essentially more right wing than even dick cheney is. and how is your vp a maverick when she taken the same earmarks that she is supposedly against. how are you for change if arent against anything that the current president except for global warming.and even on that the current president has conceded on the issue. thats not a maverick. a maverick cant be controllesd a maverick doesnt do what people like he doesnt alter his plans because he is threatened with party division. he doesnt run from his own policies on immigration. a maverick doesnt cater to the base. and being a maverick doenst not mean you will change or reform something.

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change:

to Snowspinner:

I think obama rocks but your wrong! Montana and North Dakota are reliably red. I mean 10 to 20 points red, that historic trend is gonna be very hard to reverse. For ohio, its a dead heat he's not really leading (refer to realclearpolitics.com for real polling) Again ohio, virginia, colorado are in a dead heat- and also virginia and colorado have a strong conservative constituency and have regularly gone red! As for Ohio that is a complete toss up. Which takes me to my point Hillary had the safest most PREDICTABLE road to the white house! And for michigan race relations are not good there+killpatrick. Obama was only up +2 in the last poll!

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Tunanoodle:

Nice try saywhat90.

But we should stick to ideas that will actually become part of the national narrative in the next 10 weeks.

1) Doe-eyed Palin speaks to the national press.
2) Biden ask her, "Forget other countries, how many states have you been to?"
3) Hockey moms and Soccer, Baseball, Football, Gymnastics, Music Class, and any other Moms...find common ground.
4) T. Boone declares his choice.

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Snowspinner:

change - You've gotta stop having a heart attack at every poll in Michigan, mate. Obama has been ahead in every Michigan poll since May. The state is in no danger.

As for the rest, they're volatile, and it comes down to how you want to draw your regression lines. Personally, I'm a fan of the pollster weighting and use of the national polls that Nate has - I think it maximizes available information. I think the RCP model of just averaging the last four polls to come in is a joke. I like the Pollster model, but I think their trendlines are slow to react.

Virginia, Montana, and North Dakota have histories of being red states. But the polls don't support the conclusion that they'll stay that way, and there's not enough data to say more than that. History says clear McCain. Polls say who knows. Lack of data says it's a big question mark. In any case, nobody's jaw should drop if Obama takes them.

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pion:

@change

You wrote:

"For ohio, its a dead heat he's not really leading (refer to realclearpolitics.com for real polling)"

Do you understand the RCP methodology w/r to the Ohio polls? They average polls starting from August 12th! Averaging polls over a three week period (with conventions in the middle) makes no sense statistically. However, the trend is clear: every subsequent poll on the RCP table except for the first shows declining support for McCain.

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marctx:

I'd replace hockey moms with conservative women when describing who I was referring to. It is complete speculation but by the way Palin has been received among my friends and coworkers, the large crowds, the 37 million views, the palpable excitement, I think McCain has a small chance to win. He should have no chance.

Obama's under performance when 80% think we are on the wrong track and McCain's over performance, clearly shows Obama has a problem with a lot of voters.

Advice to McCain-Palin. Screw the media. Just give speeches, no interviews. I'll take an unqualified VP over a unqualified president any day.

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illinoisindie:

getting away from McCain Palin for a while.. anyone other than me sees NC as a strongly possible pickup for Obama. The recent registration numbers show a difference of 750K of registered affiliated voters in favor of the democrats. the unaffiliated voters seem to have large numbers in the counties that Obama carried in the primaries like Mecklenburg (Charlotte's county) Guilford and Wake. This one may go down as a steal

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Snowspinner:

illinoisindie - I have hopes for NC, but for the most part, NC is a harder Virginia. If Obama wins NC, he's probably already won Virginia and thus the election.

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change:

Hey can you believe Mccain has resorted to downright lying. he says that obama has never worked across party lines and repeats this on a daily basis! The white guy gets away with everything lol.

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Robi:

Hey everyone.

How was everybody's night (what did you do)?

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cinnamonape:

It's interesting that McCain-Palin made a pilgrimage to Colorado Springs, mecca for the mega-churches of James Dobson and the disgraced Ted Haggard. I'm surprised they only drew 10,000. Hitting an easy audience...but pandering to the evangelicals is unlikely to appeal to a broader audience.

It makes McCain look more like a Rovian Bush clone.

And then to hand out flags stolen from a storage area from the Democratic Convention? Interesting that when the flags were pulled out of the black plastic bags they were in they were all neatly rolled...not soiled or just chucked in there willy-nilly. Pretty disgusting immoral behavior.

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obamacan:

Its clear that McCant will have real problems come this election and this is why .

1 the political battles are happening in red states meaning that McCant is on defense .By this I mean there are alot more red states either in play or almost in play than there are blue states from the prior two elections .

2 The undecided factor will favor Obama . There are 80 % of Americans looking for change and the undecideds are more likely going to cast in with the party not in power . News flash the gop is in power and McCant had his chance to be a real maverick and stand up to Bush but never did

3 Palin won't play . vp didnt help Dukakis and Quayle didnt really change much on the Bush Sr front in fact they just dont matter .look at Cheney one very hated vp right now .the vp is just window dressing one way or the other

4 McCain hasn't faced the hardest tests of this campaign yet .He will have to show exactly what he is going to change and either play to the moderates undercutting his base support or play to the hard right killing his theme of change . Obama won't have to play to the left as much .

now these are just my POV but I think they have a lot of validity

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Uri:

@Mike In Maryland: The fact that Nader is a Christian and not a muslim is not a point. It's about him turning the Palestinian victimization issue into a selling point.

Since I'm on the Nader mailing list, I can tell you that the main line that they're pursuing is "Obama is not anti-Israeli enough". Indeed, in an attempt to secure the jewish vote Obama's been keeping his closet of antisemites like Jimmy hidden (convention, anyone?). Nader has been playing up to that crowd desperately, and it might work for him in places like MI.

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change:

to cinnamonape:

the republican convention was like a kkk rally. old white scary dudes screaming u.s.a the same folks that lied to go to war, killed 500 000 iraqi's and 5000 u.s soldiers, ran the economy into the ground. And man rudy juiliani is crazy, i mean he's like evangelical extremist times 3- i cant believe we live in a nation where a hateful convention like gives you a bounce in the polls!! lol

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change:

Uri,

why the hell should everyone pander to the Israeli vote while you guys bulldoze houses and kill civilians at a ration of 6-1 (haretz). Its the jewish neo-conservatives also trying to push us into war with Iran? you guys are seeming kinda shady nowadays.. i think america is catching on!

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change:

http://time-blog.com/swampland/2008/07/when_extremists_attack.html

read that article its from a jewish author about the jewish neo-cons agenda (joe klien, Time)

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zotz:

Uri-
Was Kerry anti-Israeli enough? Nader got less than half a percent in 2004 in MI. Arab- Americans know McCain and they are not stupid.
If that is what McCain is counting on that tells me that you guys are grasping at straws.

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change:

I love how you neo-cons retreat from discussing facts in a conversation by displaying some lame political humor!!

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ritwingr:

The media is going to push for it VERY hard, but America simply isn't going to elect a socialist. A modest, media-exaggerated, economic downturn won't be enough to induce us to a make a mistake of that magnitude. In the final analysis, Americans understand that capitalism is the underpinning of our standard of living, unparalleled in world history.

McCain is, indeed, a highly flawed candidate. He's bought into the Global Warming BS. He supported amnesty for illegals. He is far too malleable in dealing with the left. But he's a good man who loves his country, and he doesn't believe we need to be transformed into a European-style socialist state.

Americans will instinctively understand that the choice of Obama would be one that destroys what is left of our capitalist system. We simply won't make that grave error.

Think about it. Bush HIMSELF was every bit as unpopular 4 years ago as he is now - and he beat Kerry by THREE MILLION votes. Obama is a much weaker candidate than Kerry was, and McCain has much more crossover appeal (unfortunately, by my reckoning) than did Bush.

This election won't be close - McCain will win by at least five million votes. Conventional wisdom will once again be proven wrong, wrong, wrong.

Book it!

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Opa:

Now that you mention it, I was offended by that constant chant of USA USA. as if they were going into battle against an opponent who did NOT belong to the USA. It's the Republican strategy of course to make Democrats look like they do not belong in the USA and it worked for them four years ago so you can't blame them.

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obamacan:

@ ritwingr

a modest economicdownturn created by the media ????
so how many houses do you own ??
the fact that 10 - 20 5 of americans could wind up losing their houses ? The fact that the average pay for jobs have dropped while food and gas prices have skyrocketed ??? The fact that unemployment is on the rise ? The fact that 10 + billion dollars goes towards a war we shouldnt have been in while Bush racks up a deficit of historical proportions ??The fact that poverty continues to rise at an astonishing rate ??
Is this all make believe because I would have figured that if it were that stalwart of news integrity fox would have debunked it ?
No my good sir its not socialism its allowing the working class to at least have a roof over thier head , a meal on the table and gas so they can get to work and when that is threatened so is the very incentive of workers to work

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Mike In Maryland:

Uri,

You, and by extension Nader, are full of male bovine droppings.

From http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/IsraelFactSheet.pdf:
"Barack Obama believes in working towards a two-state solution, with both states [Israel and Palestine] living side by side in peace and security."

Mike

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obamacan:

oh and by the way President Bush ahd an approval rating around 50 % in the 2004 election and its at 30 % now .
so where were you in 2006 when the dems crushed the gop ??

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change:

Guys its the evangelical extremists that want Mcsame to win, because he will fight the next crusade in Iran. Also why that old poodle liberman supports McSame because he also believes that mcsame will go to war! I hope the U.S isn't dumb enough to elect Mcsame, and if they are then they have choosen evangelical extremism over peace and prosperity!!

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saywhat90:

@ritwingr

first in 2004 bush's approval was in the low to mid 40's. it is now the low 30's. second it was the fear of terrorism that kept bush in office. third kerry was seen as weak because he did not address the swift boat issue.and finally lack of reaction to katrina even after the mayor and the governor were not prepared was not after that election in 2005. factor in the fact the economy isnt going well then you may see those five million votes,but on obama's side.

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change:

I also shocked by the staunch anti-abortion stance taken by palin- she's opposed to abortion even in cases of rape and incest.(Naral)

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voteforamerica:

Senate GOP Sets Filibuster Record

Senate GOP Sets Filibuster Record

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saywhat90:

did anyone see the surveyusa poll

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saywhat90:

they have mccain 60/obama 36. but then i looked again. the were no hispanics or aa polled. so it is a bs poll

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saywhat90:

sorry my mistake it was a district poll of mo9 of missouri.

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marctx:

i'd like to politics aside and thank Obama for leaving all the American flags in the trash for McCain to use in his rally today.

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ritwingr:

Obamacan:

Obama wants to make us like Europe, right? He wants to nationalize health care, sign on to "cap-and-trade" nonsense, and have the government seize a more active role inthe economy, right? Just like Europe.

Well, how many of the countries of Obama's beloved Europe would KILL to have a 6.1% unemployment rate, which we whine about as being unacceptably high?

Foreclosures? How many of those are people who bought homes they really couldn't afford? Screw them AND the banks that made bad loans to them. 97% of all mortgages are being paid on time. We shouldn't bail out imprudent lenders or borrowers. Unfashionable I realize, but there was a time when Americans didn't expect the Nanny State to fix every little problem in their lives.

Yes, the downturn is modest. Did you happen to see the Q2 GDP figure? 3.3% growth. Again, France, Germany and the rest of Obama's socialist models would be awfully happy with 3.3% growth.

Grow up. The government's job is to protect the borders, keep us from killing and robbing each other, and maybe build a road or two. Most of what it does beyond that is unconstitutional crap. Phil Gramm was right: we've become a nation of whiners. Too many of us think our mere existence gives us a lien on the fruits of the labor of others. Health care is a "right?" What about my right not to pay for your goddamned health care?

Here's a health care plan. PAY FOR YOUR OWN DAMNED HEALTH CARE. Of coure McCain will never say that.

But he should.

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change:

guys there is rightwing evangelical bitter extremists that want to elect mcsame so he can fight there crusades, i know you anemic evangelicals think jesus is gonna comeback, but we care about the economy!!

stop evangelical extremism!!!

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Emago:

Hello Pollster experts, I am a European citizen following your presidential elections closely as they will most probably also have a profound effect on my life in the long run. I am currently trying to understand the dynamics and precisions of voter polls concerning the presidential elections.

As I understand from this thread and also the respective webpages, Gallup and Rasmussen poll only likely and registered voters respectively. It seems however that this time voter turnout could be highly increased in certain demographic groups which might register late. Do you know if these institutes have already adapted their methodology to regard that trend? And if not how big is the likely impact of that effect?

At least Rasmussen seems to have its own political agenda (being a primary suplier to FOX, which as we all know is fully partisan). How large do you estimate the impact of that factor on Rasmussen numbers?

As Snowspinner has clearly shown in several comments, when presuming no big news anymore until November, Obama has a very strong strategic position, only needing to defend all leaning states and conquering only one of 5-6 leaning "options". However considering that all margins have some correlations, trends affect all of those, including the loss of leaning states. How strong can the effect of standard dynamics (result shifting only from usual race, debates without new big scandal news) be considered when looking at past elections and applying current demographics?

Also, I would like to know which specific effect makes Colorado a toss-up instead of the typical redneck in the center of the country (I understand that for New Mexico, but not for Colorado)?

Last, but not least, a personal opinion: Up to a few days ago I was sitting here, far away in my chair, staring at the show sometimes with amusement, sometimes with great respect.

Then came Mrs. "Lets pray for the gas pipeline" (the most ridiculous comment I have ever heard from a politician, if she really said that at one point) Taleban and I was left with just one feeling:

SHOCK & AWE

I think there is a difference when that rhetoric comes from a real fundamentalist as compared to when it is uttered just to USE some fundamentalists for the sake of power (seemed so in the past).
May God bless America and let that threat pass all of us! - Thats no cynism and shall be no insult to enlightend Americans, even not Alaskans, as when I visited Juneau and Anchorage some time back I felt welcome and enjoyed my time. But there are some other things lurking beneath as it seems -

So keep up your interesting debate here, it helps a lot to understand the numbers, trends and dynamics. Many thanks from beyond the ocean especially to (at least seemingly) serious and rational Snowspinner.

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saywhat90:

first there are many americans who wish they could pay their own health care. they simply just cant afford what with having eat and keep a home and such. second it will paid for by the same taxes you paying right now but lower for regular people like you and me. the constitution does not say that the government shouldnt help someone in their time of need.the fact is the government could do that if partisan politics and special interest lobbyist were not involved. it is okay to have some social programs. just as it is okay to not become a hand out nation. welfare isnt a free program. hud is not a free social program.

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change:

To emago

1.No they haven't adopted the trend that considers a possible huge turnout that is why they say its registered or likely voters, it would be to difficult to estimate a greater turnout, it would just be plus on election day.

2. i am an obama supporter but rasmussen is pretty accurate, they have a proven track record, and the guy that runs gallup also shows up on fox news= rasmussen and gallup are the best in the biz.

3. colorado has had a surge in more affluent folks in the suburbs that are turned of by the evangelical cults, but don't get it twisted it the home of conservatism where focus on the family and other radical evangelicals reside!

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John:

To ritwingr
"Well, how many of the countries of Obama's beloved Europe would KILL to have a 6.1% unemployment rate, which we whine about as being unacceptably high?"

The mean unemployment rate in Europe is about 7%. The median level of EU27 is about 6%. So about half would, half wouldn't. However the differing unemployment rates are probably more to do with a flexible labour market than taxes, or government interference. Basically, in (some) european countries, jobs come with more long-term security than in the US but at the cost of higher unemployment. (Sorry for the gross oversimplification)

To emago

I am not an expert (and I am also British) but my view for what it is worth; in terms of turnout, most pollsters weigh for a number of factors (age, race, gender and sometime party id) due to the the lower response rates for some demographics. There is quite a degree of variation about methodology and what baseline to use for these demographic groups although most use numbers which are close to the 2004 exit polls. So if there is a larger turnout among certain demographics(such as youth, African American, and perhaps hispanic voters) relative to the others, come November, most polls will not pick this movement up. How much difference could this make assuming it happens? probably only about a percent for a canditate(or a two percent swing), but given the last two election have been decided by less than one percent (2004 in Ohio and 2000 in Florida) it might be decisive.

If I understand your question concerning the leaning states, that is what is the possibilty of a national trend impacting on multiple swing states then I would highly recommend going to this site which tries to project this.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

My understanding is Colorado has been gradually turning blue due to an increasing (democratic) population in Denver's surburbs and an increasing hispanic population but perhaps someone with more knowledge can explain better.

I think McCain's choice of Palin caught everyone unaware, including perhaps McCain!

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DocnTN:

@Emago
If we only had more serious folks like yourself, we wouldn't have the fools that we have running this country.

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saywhat90:

i think rcp us picking and choosing the polls they want to make the average less than what it is. thhey still have the cnn poll on there, but they dont have the democracy corps poll or the economist poll.yet the cnn poll is was done on august 31 and the democracy corps poll was done later.seems fishy.

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thoughtful:

Morning
Rasmussen Daily tracker September 7th
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%.

McCain gets to 48% for very first time in the Rasmussen poll. 77% Of Obama's vote is very enthusiastic compared to 64% for Rasmussen.

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thoughtful:

Morning
Rasmussen Daily tracker September 7th
"In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%."

McCain gets to 48% for very first time in the Rasmussen poll. 77% Of Obama's vote is very enthusiastic compared to 64% for Rasmussen.

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Snowspinner:

thoughtful - So for Rasmussen, the convention bounce has it all square.

The next week of polling will be interesting and crucial. If Obama leads next Friday, we can safely say that Palin did not changethe fundamental dynamics of the race.

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peterg:

I think this gentleman and his running mate are the best thing that has happened in the USA in at least 8 years.

If you look at this chart http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ you will see the DEMS leading in places where the Rep normally have won and in the areas where the DEMS have won in the past Obama’s lead is even larger than previous DEMS candidates and most noticeably is that even where Obama is being led by Mc Cain this lead is so marginal it is overtakeable, Mc Cain is not doing half as well as the undisputed clown of Presidents George Bush did in these states in previous elections as we note in this example Indiana (11EV) McCain current +4.7 Bush 2004 result +20.7 Bush 2000 result +15.7

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thoughtful:

Hi snowspinner

This is a better bounce than I anticipated.

Obama support is solid, so its not that he is losing ground its that McCain has gained some.

The economy is falling apart, You know the Western World's financial system would have collapsed if the Government had'nt step in for Freddie and Fannie. In the current situation McCain self admits he knows nothing about economics and supports Bush.

Obama/Biden just have to continue tieing McCain/Palin to Bush/Cheney on the Economy, on the war.

They have to to continue to ignore Sarah Palin, unless she raises her head and gets caught in her web of lies! MSM are eventually going to catch up with her. She is EVIL though.


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KipTin:

So much for the "enthusiasm" number (and larger number of registered Democrats), 15% of Democrats are still voting for McCain (and that is why there is a TIE today at 48%.)--

"McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

P.S. Favorable views--
McCain 58%, Palin 58%, Obama 56%, Biden 48%.

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Snowspinner:

It is also worth noting, regarding the new Rasmussen polling and the Gallup poll from yesterday, Obama's numbers have stayed still - it's McCain who went up. Obama has mostly held his gains over the week. McCain has consolidated... something. Is it just that more of the conservative base is passing the likely voter screen because they're excited? Probably not - that would have the net effect of reducing Obama's support as well. (Every new conservative base who passes the likely voter screening removes another voter - 48% of the time that voter was an Obama voter, 43% McCain. McCain removals don't affect either total, Obama removals affect both.)

So what this has done is broken a chunk of undecideds for McCain. Here's the thing though - those undecideds were probably already leaning McCain if they broke now. Why do I say this? Because if they were true undecideds they'd probably have broken for Obama after the Democratic convention and then switched to McCain after the Republican convention.

In practice, a good chunk of these voters will wander back to undecided over the week as they're reminded of whatever had them nervous about McCain. And then come election day they'll break back for McCain. But what's significant here is that even when you give McCain his leaning undecideds he doesn't beat Obama, who, a full week after the convention, probably has leaners he's not claiming in polls.

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Emago:

Thanks a lot for the replies and especially the link to 538com which I was not aware of before. Very interesting!

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thoughtful:

Undecided/Kiptin

Maybe McCain goes up again tomorrow! But he looks very close to his watermark.

Snowspinner no its Obama that's consolidating, MCain's support is much softer.

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thoughtful:

Undecided

I am surprised you didn't refer to the women's vote which according to Ras is where McCain has picked up most ground.

Tomorrow Ras reports his polls conducted on behalf of Fox in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan snd I believe Colorado. These will represent high watermarks for McCain but are designed to show Big Mo for the Repub campaign!

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Snowspinner:

thoughtful - Well, and I think I got at that with my comments - right now some McCain leaning undecideds are breaking for McCain. They'll probably fall off a bit over the next week, then start to re-break towards McCain as November looms.

A week after the convention and after brutal attacks from the Republican convention, on the other hand, Obama probably has leaners that are not reporting breaking for Obama right now, which he will also gain as November looms.

Which is really just a complex way of saying that if you're not winning at the height of your convention bounce, you're probably screwed.

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KipTin:

Obamanation still calling Palin names, accusing her of lying, and saying she is EVIL!!! Instead of denigrating candidates how about sticking to the poll and issues?

The bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to soon be followed by $50 billion loan guarantees for the auto industry. The first mess is because of the idea (and policy) that everyone should "own" their home. (Time for a paradigm shift there.) The second mess is because the American auto industry chose to manufacture high profit gaz-guzzling SUVs, etc. (Now the industry is ill=prepared to respond to what consumers want and need.)

Just some random thoughts: Why do we taxpayers have to keep bailing out poor business models? Did you know that Henry Ford went bankrupt FIVE times before he was successful with the Model T and Ford Motor Company.

I like McCain's plan for unemployment: People take a lower paying job and get paid an extra amount to help make up loss of old job as well as get training for a new higher paying job... not the archaic unemployment benefits of present day.

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KipTin:

Reporting the women's vote had nothing to do with my comment which focused on political ID.

Yes, McCain picked up ground among women (or Obama lost women votes)--

"McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women."

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zotz:

She did lie when she didn't admit that she supported the bridge to nowhere before she was against it. I want to know WHO called her "evil". Are you making stuff up again?

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Snowspinner:

KipTin - I think calling Palin out on, well, lying about the issues is still sticking to the issues.

And given that Obama's numbers have stayed the same, it seems much more likely that McCain has gained among women than that Obama has lost ground.

Which poses a new flavor of problem. If McCain's gains are among women, are these the disaffected Clinton supporters again? And if so, will McCain's strong pro-life views and lack of support for pay equality eventually lose him some of this support.

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thoughtful:

Undecided/Kiptin

Actually according to Ras: Obama has picked up some men, that means McCain has lost some!

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boomshak:

You guys on the left are hoping that Palin "just gives a good speech" when someone else puts the words in her mout, that she won't hold up in a one-on-one interview.

If I were you, I would hope that as well.

However, if you watched the CNBC interview with Palin conducted just a few weeks ago, you will become afraid, very very afraid. She is twice as strong one-on-one as she is in front of thousands.

The McCain camp is just playin rope-a-dope with the left by keeping her out of the talk-shows this weekend. That way, the fools in the MSM will have all week to talk about how she will crumble in an interview and once again lower expectations (oh you fools!). Then she will do MTP and blow everyone away.

Republicans are very lucky in one aspect, the Left NEVER learns from it's mistakes. They have too much anger too learn.

Afetr all this is over, we will be sending DailyKos and it's ilk thank-you notes for making a McCain-Palin victory so easy.

It is "political judo" people. We are using your own strength against you.

Fools.

P.S., Rasmussen has it all tied up this morning (which means McCain-Palin were actually ahead by 2.5 in Friday) and Gallup will come out showing McCain Palin up by 2.5 to 4 points today. Zogby also has them up by 4.

I find this all highly amusing and great fun.

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KipTin:

Read "thoughtful's" comments posted at Posted on September 7, 2008 10:57 AM in which she stated "She is EVIL though."

Regarding Bridge to Nowhere-- Palin did not say she never supported it. She specifically stated that as Governor "I told the Congress "thanks, but no thanks," for that Bridge to Nowhere. If our state wanted a bridge, we'd build it ourselves." And she in fact, did not use the transportation funds (originally earmarked for the Bridge) for that project but directed it to other public works projects.

In campaigning for Governor, she supported the bridge. She changed her position after being elected because of the large increased costs and other priority projects.

Therefore NOT a lie, but a change of position based on current information. If Obamanation continues to call such as "lies" then Obama has some explaining to do about his CHANGE of positions on public funding, FISA, NAFTA, etc. Because based on Obamanation criteria, Obama is a LIAR.

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zotz:

I think McCain will be leading for at least the first part of next week. So, we will just have to work harder. The Reps are in desperation mode and yes they might win. Obama refusing to pick Hillary for VP shows the Dem talent for beating themselves. The Reps know they are a minority party that completely depends on older white voters. They have no future beyond this election. If they lose, they are finished. They know this, so they are going to fight just like a cat being given a bath. That's a good description for Kiptin too!

My favorite conservative, Andrew Sullivan
"Ferraro was being interviewed within four days of being announced. Dan Quayle gave an interview one day after being selected.
We are now on Day Nine for Palin and are told to expect another thirteen before she's ready.
This is a pitbull with lipstick? More like a cowering chihuahua."

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boomshak:

One thing you people should know in this polling. Even though Rasmussen on his own website admits that dems only have a 5.5 point advantage in Party Affiliation as of the end of August (before palin joined the ticket), he is giving them a 7.5 point advantage in sampling (which makes no sense, but he is doing it).

Add to that that we probably have had some folks coming back to the Republican side after the Palin pick and these Rasmussen numbers might be underestimating the McCain-Palin lead by 4 to 5 points.

Also keep in mind that Gallup is polling all Registered Voters and opposed to Likely Voters, this also favors Obama historically.

I think in reality, McCain-Palin will be looking at a 4 to 8 point lead by Monday with no sexy VP pick or Convention for Obama to knock McCain's numbers down yet.

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boomshak:

For the record, it is generally accepted in conservative circles that Andrew Sullivan has lost his mind.

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zotz:

I do not know where thoughtful comes from but I know she/he uses British spelling so I reject the notion that she/he represents an American viewpoint.

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KipTin:

You know... thoughtful... if you want to debate "gender" of voters, do it with someone else. Like I said, I was focusing on political ID. And then I agreed with you on your comment about women. Now you take the opposite side of YOUR interjection. What's up with that? I am taking no more of your bait.

And as for "snowspinner"-- Do you realize that many many women are in fact "pro-life?" And that "pro-choice" women respect the personal choices that Palin made? And that Palin has not and is not running on a "social agenda" but rather an reform/energy/economic agenda? That both McCain and Palin are "federalists" (aka support state rights)?

This so-called Obama issue of gender "pay equality" is a red herring. Obama keeps saying that women should be paid for doing a "man's" job!!! What century is he from? There is NO such thing as a "man's" job anymore. We already have federal laws in place guaranteeing pay equality for both genders doing the same job.

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KipTin:

Well... zotz.

First- I agree with the assessment of Andrew Sullivan posted by boomshak.

Second- You stated--"They know this, so they are going to fight just like a cat being given a bath. That's a good description for Kiptin too!" So you regress to insulting other posters AGAIN? You truly do represent Obamanation. If you feel you cannot debate the issues, why not just shut up and quit the insults?

Second- Palin was announced as VP Friday before the GOP convention began, so less than a week to get ready for her debut. She campaigned with McCain during that time and immediately afterwards-- same as Biden did with Obama. (Note: This is only the 3rd day since the convention ended.) Her son is being deployed September 11 and she is talking a few days to spend with him and her family. McCain campaign announced she will be available after that time. So what's Obamanation's freakin' problem?

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richardkreed:

Boy, are some of you folks going to be surprised and disappointed when McCain/Palin win and do a good job, and Palin runs for President and wins in 2012 and 2016. I hope none of you go completely insane with PDS (Palin Derangement Syndrome), for we Republicans worry about you and care about your mental health.

"Blessed is the woman who can hunt and fish, nad field dress a moose, for she is one of us."

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zotz:

McCain said he was in favor of a constitutional amendment to ban abortion. That means it would be illegal in ALL states.

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thoughtful:

Zotz

I am from California. I spend more time in UK, Asia and China than I do in the US.

That does not invalidate my American viewpoint.

You could say I have a more detached and less partisan view!

Now these polls show a bounce to McCain and a more enthusiastic Republican Party after the Palin pick and the Convention. Its not surprising.

Tomorrows going to be really interesting woith all the battleground polls Ras is doing.

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Snowspinner:

KipTin - I was speculating specifically about whether McCain had grabbed a chunk of Clinton Democrats with the Palin pick. Those voters would be relatively unlikely to be pro-life, and relatively unlikely to agree with McCain on a lot of issues. That makes them relatively easy picking to pull off of McCain.

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saywhat90:

as kiptin would say when obama was leading this is a significant lead and it is an expected bounce. when obama had a bounce you republicans were saying it wouldnt last. this wont last neither

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saywhat90:

oops i meant to say this not a significant lead.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

Just checked in briefly this mroning to look at todays trackers, tied at Rasmussen....and its 48-45 for mccain on gallup....and we still have another day to go on th mccain speech to measure for tomorrow...at one point gallup last weekend was 59-40 for Obama...Mccain has jumped 8 points and obama lost 3...that's an 11 point change in mccain favors....with still naothe rday maybe 2 to fully measure hte GOP bounce....McCain not only got back what he los tduring the DNC, but has overtaken obama now by 3....and hit the new watermark you like to point out on gallup of 48.........with more to come...

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saywhat90:

@stillow

so basically you think mccain going to get a 15 point bounce.and barack was never up 59-40 in any poll.

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Stillow:

Sorry, my daughter sitting next to me, last weekend gallup was 48-40....not 59-40...its sunday, football, ya know how it is.

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slinky:

I have my own preferences, but, then, I think most voters are dopes. I don't believe in the wisdom of crowds.

That said, it appears that the Rasmussen poll that has the candidates neck-and-neck is accurate.

There doesn't appear to be any discussion here about the reliability of the US voting system. I am pretty certain it is unreliable, and more unreliable in some places as opposed to others.

Since this is likely to be a deciding factor in a close election, what sez the various factions about this?

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thoughtful:

Stillow

I am glad you have such a big smile today!

I think you are right to point to the watermarks, thay are important numbers.

Certainly, the Gallup numbers are best for McCain for a very long time and a new watermark on Rasmussen.

Tomorrow we have 5 Rasmussen battle ground state polls and definitely will cause some consternation based on the national trend.

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saywhat90:

@stillow

yeah i know will be watching it myself. but you beleieve that he will have a more than 5 point lead in the gallup. i believe that this as i have said before means nothing. i have seen polls change 100's of times in an election since i became old enough to vote. bounces have come and gone in every case. i think this is as high it will get because noone is completely sure of who they want to vote for. and we have a long time before the election is over.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

There is definately a momentum trend at least for now to mccain comng off the RNC. Hitting new watermarks I agree is important, I think he has a good shot of hitting 50 or 51....the battleground polls will depend on the date range of polling on how accurate they will be. I suspect many of them will have taken place before the RNC completed, so it won't be fully accurate and will probably favor Obama.
+3 to McCain gallup is not good for obama. And Rass, which most on here call right wing has them tied....hmmmm...i think both plain and mccain speeches were very effective.
By tuesday / Weds next week we will have a good solid picture of where the national race is. Veryodd though tha thte GOP bounce seems to be outdoing the DNC bounce....

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KipTin:

A constitutional amendment to ban abortion with a Democratically-controlled Congress. Sure, we all should be really worried. NOT.

Regarding McCain's favoring a constitutional amendment. He has never made that statement. Here is a sample of his real (and consistent) position: "I don't think a constitutional amendment is probably going to take place, but I do believe that it's very likely or possible that a Supreme Court should -- could overturn Roe v. Wade, which would then return these decisions to the states, which I support. ... I'm a federalist. Just as I believe that the issue of gay marriage should be decided by the states, so do I believe that we would be better off by having Roe v. Wade returned to the states." (November 19, 2006, edition of ABC's This Week, host George Stephanopoulos)

And if Roe vs. Wade is overturned, the Democratically-controlled Congress can put a specific law back in place. So why worry about McCain?

Here is some background info from Wikipedia--
"According to the Roe decision, most laws against abortion in the United States violated a constitutional RIGHT TO PRIVACY under the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The decision overturned all state and federal laws outlawing or restricting abortion that were inconsistent with its holdings." Additionally, the central holding of Roe v. Wade was that abortions are permissible for ANY reason a woman chooses, up until the "point at which the fetus becomes ‘viable.’

The companion decision Doe vs. Bolton overturned the abortion law of Georgia. The Court's opinion stated that a woman may obtain an abortion AFTER viability, if necessary to protect her "health" and that decision defined "health" broadly.

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ritwingr:

Who, exactly, considers Andrea Sullivan a "conservative?"

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thoughtful:

Stillow

There is a lot of undecideds out there. So a lot of churn, According to Ras 36% of Mcains's vote is soft against 23% of Obama's.

I got the Palin effect wrong. The McCain campaign now they have the Bush/Cheney operatives on board is now much more professional.

The 5 Polls tomorrow are Rasmussen commisssioned by Fox and are Post Convention! This is all about building up Big Mo.

____________________

zotz:

Kiptin-
"Regarding McCain's favoring a constitutional amendment. He has never made that statement."

McCain DID make that statement to Tim Russert on Meet The Press. We have got him on tape saying it. Obama put it in a radio ad attacking McCain on the abortion issue.

"An announcer then claims that “as president, John McCain will make abortion illegal,” before playing an exchange on "Meet the Press" in which McCain told moderator Tim Russert that he favors “a constitutional amendment to ban all abortions.” "
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13103.html

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zotz:

Kiptin-
"Regarding McCain's favoring a constitutional amendment. He has never made that statement."

McCain DID make that statement to Tim Russert on Meet The Press. We have got him on tape saying it. Obama put it in a radio ad attacking McCain on the abortion issue.

"An announcer then claims that “as president, John McCain will make abortion illegal,” before playing an exchange on "Meet the Press" in which McCain told moderator Tim Russert that he favors “a constitutional amendment to ban all abortions.” "
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13103.html

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Snowspinner:

thoughtful - I'll be curious about the state polls - especially given that Rasmussen has not showed the same convention bounce for McCain as Gallup.

My guess is that one of the key battlegrounds of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, or Colorado will show a slight Obama lead.

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Snowspinner:

The sharpness of the swing today is probably more due to the dropping of Wednesday's highly favorable Obama numbers (538 had them at +7) than to any dramatic improvement for McCain from yesterday.

We'll know more when Nate gets around to a polling update where he breaks today's numbers out.

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thoughtful:

Snowspinner

This is now a well orchestrated and choreographed struggle for power. The same guys (with Rove pulling strings) that got the American people to buy into Bush/McCain are running John McCain.

I regret to say that I think we will see McCain ahead in to morrow's in Ras by maybe 2 points!

Zotz is right we are going to have to work harder, this is good for Obama in the sense they won't get complascent.

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zotz:

ritwingr-
"Who, exactly, considers Andrea Sullivan a "conservative?""

Not all conservatives are bible-thumping rednecks. Some are actually educated. (forgive the elitism)

"Andrea Sullivan" BTW, that shows your education level, doesn't it?

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illinoisindie:

New Trackers out
Ras: 46-46 w/o leaners 48-48 w/leaners
Gall: 48-45 McCain Obama

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thoughtful:

Snowspinner

re-read what Nate wrote yesterday and look at his interpretation of Friday's gallup and Rasmussen numbers and you can see exactly what happened in Saturday's polling, as Brampster has pointed out Obama almost always polls low (not last weekend) with Gallup at the week ends.

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boomshak:

Ok, let's drop the Hotline Poll (who the heck ever listens to them anyway) showing Obama +6 and look at Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup.

Zogby: McCain-Palin +4
Rasmussen: McCain-Palin Tied
Gallup: McCain-Palin +3

Considering that Rasmussen and Zogby are both 3 day moving averages that still include some numbers where Obama was leading, we should be settling in on Monday with McCain-Palin leading by between 5 and 8 points.

Now consider that Obama had lead by 8 on Gallup at his highest level, which was about a 7 point bounce for him, McCain-Palin are looking at about a 13 to 16 point bounce or almost DOUBLE the Obama bounce.

Add to that that both Palin and McCain outdrew Obama (and blew away Biden/Clinton) with far fewer channels covering the event and you can start to feel a paradigm shift here.

What does a desperate liberal look like? Watch Obama-Biden over the next 2 weeks and you'll see.

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boomshak:

McCain had a VP pick and a convention to kill the Dems bounce. What do the Dems have to kill the Mccain-Palin bounce?

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Snowspinner:

boomshak - Well, they have 59 days and the fact that convention bounces fade on their own...

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thoughtful:

Drop the Zogby poll, not even Real Clear uses it in its's averages. Its a mad interactive internet poll.

On Thursday/Friday next week we should know where we are with the different bounces as these 3 day trackers unwind.

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RKIndependent:

Gallop Poll is a republican poll, it's a well known fact. Anyway, look for an army of democratic women heading to the field this week to take on Mrs. Sarah P. Everyone from Mrs. Clinton, Boxer, Feinstein, and the governor of Kansas will rip into Mrs Sarah P. and expose her for what she really is...and don't you all find it curious, that Mrs Sarah P. has not been interviewed by the media yet? There are 58 days left and McCain is shielding her from the media, she has not appeared on any Sunday Morning talk shows or eleswhere for that matter, only in carefully scripted campaign stops with McCain always at her side, never by herself. They can only do this for so long (McCain Campaign) and it's already out on the major news media, that Sarah P. won't be interviewed on her stance on the Major issues (Foreign Policy, Domestic or otherwise). Watch this story, because the McCain camp knows that once she is interviewed, there "Tie" in the Polls will evaporate, and she will be exposed for the right wing radical she is. Her stance on abortion for example, she is against it even in the cases of rape and incest and also the endangerment of life of the Mother. This is not where the American Public is right now, not even any supreme court judges take this stand. She is Far out to the right of even Jerry farwell when he was alive.

McCain is shielding and Hiding her, and they can only do this for so long. The Democratic women this week and next will hopefully expose Mrs Sarah P for what she is, and also Biden will do this in the debate on Oct 2.

Obamma will hold his own as the truth about Sarah P comes to light...wait & see....we have plenty of time to expose her. This is "Beauty & the Beast" on the republican ticket, nothing more. All the republicans are trying to do is pull even with the democrats in the polls, to allow old Carl Rove surrogotes to work their turnout magic on the "republican Base" to try and win this thing, that's all, so it's important that Sarah P be exposed, so that Obamma can take the lead back in the polls, and Pull away from Carl Roves Database.

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Tybo:

obama is still off the front pages.. and his stephenopolous(sp) interview was a pander so far to the right that it's pathetic.

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richardkreed:

Ya gotta love it.

Now that the polls are showing that lovely 'Palin bounce,' we hear:
1. Zogby is a mad interactive internet poll,
2. Gallup is a GOP poll and always goes up on weekends, and
3. Rass is a Fox conspiracy.

Keep on yodelling, guys. There are no grizzly bears in that Northern forest. Ho, Ho, Ho.

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Snowspinner:

richardkreed - I've never taken Zogby interactive seriously. Has anyone?

Gallup has shown a 1-2 point bump for McCain on weekends previously, so far as I can tell, but I haven't gone back that far on that.

I question Rasmussen's party weighting, but only mildly. I take them seriously. They show a McCain bounce that isn't enough to give him the lead.

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richardkreed:

I agree with you, Moonspinner. Whether it shows what I want to see or not, Rasmussen is the most accurate. Zogby used to be very accurate, but that was years ago. Not sure what changed, perhaps he got too involved in the issues.

Mainly I was just having a little fun a folks who just 'hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest' like Simon and Garfunkle's poor Boxer in that clearing. If they continue to 'misunderestimate' Mrs. Palin, she will field dress them, too.

I also trust Gallup to get it right most of the time.

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