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US: Generic Ballot (Gallup 1/1-3)

Topics: poll

Gallup
2/1-3/10; 1,025 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
45% Democrat, 45% Republican (chart)

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Wow.. that net republican enthusiasm versus dem is remarkable.

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Xenobion:

Enthusiasm goes up after you factor the shrinking Republican electorate. Ironic, sorta...

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Farleftandproud:

The enthusism gap is not strong among Democrats because our party is not united. Progress has been slower that we expected. I think we never could have imagined in our wildest dreams that the senate finance commitee dragged their feet last summer. Harry Reid's first statement before summer break was a huge concession to conservatives. Districts that have a progressive rep or senator like Grayson, unites progressives though.

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Farleftandproud:

The Republican party has not grown that much nationwide, but independents tend to get swayed in favor of the party out of power. Americans are impatient.

Most of us are pretty well decided about our political affiliation and beliefs, and we have issues that we keep ourselves informed on and we feel strongly about. For 40 percent of the electorate, they are vulnerable to believe clever spin from both sides. Many of them have little interest in politics. Some politicians are good at picking unusual topics to get voters. One year, Pataki, did a campaign ad in NY that promised he would go after deadbeat dads. He showed them womanizing on the beach while a mother was scraping by. Of course nothing really changed after Pataki was elected to go tough on dead beat dads, but it got a lot of women to vote for him.

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Field Marshal:

X,

Keep drinking the kool-aid. Remember in 1994, Gallup had the Reps up by 1 on the generic ballot. They then won 54 seats.

And the Dems are shrinking now too.

I would love to see a poll done on Grayson. I bet he goes down big in November. His district is a tossup but with the asinine comments he has made of the past year, he has to be ripe for the picking.

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Farleftandproud:

Democrats are prepared for the possibility of 1994 happening. They weren't in 1994. There weren't as many polls back than. I think this year, Rasmussen and the others will probably be closer to the final results. I think it will vary state to state.

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Stillow:

X - Does not matter if the GOP is shrinking, so are the Dems. But you might want to take note that the Indy's are leaving the Dems in mass.....how do you expect to win elections when your losing Indy's 2 to 1 and in some cases like MA, 3 to 1????????

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bigfoot9p6:

What on earth is the deal with reps and their Koolaid. They own stock maybe?

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VA Dem:

Yep. Reminds me of the massive 1982 Republican losses after Reagan bungled the economy. How'd that turn out?

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Farleftandproud:

To the average middle of the road US Voter, "the grass is always greener"

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LordMike:

Is there really any wonder why there is no Democratic enthusiasm? The Democrats in congress are inept and cowardly and refuse to pass anything without begging the GOP minority for their favor. Not all, democrats, of course... just the bad ones, but there are enough of those bad apples to spoil the bunch.

Truly pathetic leadership in the Senate and the White House. The house has done a remarkable job, really. Nancy knows how to herd those cats. I can't wait until Reid is gone.

Obama had a chance to crush the GOP once and for all, and instead he elevates their stature every day. No wonder they are leading the generic ballot (in most cases). Obama says how wonderful the GOP is every day after he slams Democratic proposals.

That's not change I can believe in!

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Stillow:

This is pure comedy coming from most of you lefties. I am the one drinking kool aid? I'm the one who is seing whats happening. Indy's are leaving the Dems faster than my wife spends money at the mall. You guys are getting creamed in solid blue states and yet you still come out and say the things your saying....its pure comedy at this point.

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BH:

"Enthusiasm goes up after you factor the shrinking Republican electorate."

That's pretty much a meme based on the assumption that the 2008 electorate is still intact today. And like Stillow said, it's a nonstarter due to the Indy's overwhelming support for Repubs. Given that Gallup sampled adults, this is a lousy poll for the Dems.

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BH:

"Obama had a chance to crush the GOP once and for all, and instead he elevates their stature every day."

Mike, Obama is "elevating their stature" because the American people have rejected his and your party's ideas. Had the President had a few more votes in the House and Senate there would be exactly zero calls for bipartisanship. This Administration can read a poll as well as anyone, and President Obama knows that most of the American public hates his HC bill and the $800 B roll of the dice that's done nothing for unemployment. The President is merely trying a rope-a-dope strategy to bring in Repubs. for a) either ram HC through with political cover and/or b) to paint them as "obstructionists" so that the waters will be muddied by Nov. It's pure political calculus and it has nothing to do with the President actually listening to conservative ideas or the 55%+ of the American public who want the President to give up his most cherished pet-project in favor of those little needs like a better economy and jobs.

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John:

"Given that Gallup sampled adults, this is a lousy poll for the Dems."

Actually the poll is of registered voters but that doesn't make it much better for the democrats in congress

"ram HC through with political cover"

Not quite sure why you think Obama/democrats are desperately looking for political cover, as they were willing to break the filibuster on the bill with no republican support, before Brown's victory in MA. As far as I can tell all they want is enough votes/(or abstaintions) to pass a closure vote. (They almost certainly have the votes to pass the actual bill)

"or the 55%+ of the American public who want the President to give up his most cherished pet-project"

Well, the most recent washington post/ABC poll had 63% of the american public wanting lawmakers continue and try and pass a comprehensive health reform bill.


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Xenobion:

Apparently we were drinking Kool-Aide last year and Obama still got elected. If you want a Heaven's Gate reference the Republican's are chasing Hail-bop if they think they came out of this unscathed with a party of new ideas. The party is bankrupt as the Democrats right now. This is not 1994. Republicans will gain seats in both the Senate and the House not over normal amounts. Maybe 20 tops in House and 6 tops Senate.

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GARY WAGNER:

It's not so much that voters have suddenly fallen in love with Republicans as it is that voters have suddenly fallen in hate with Democrats. The level of back-room deals, corruption, bribes, secret negotiations, and heavy-handed monopartisinship on the part of the leadership is the worst I have ever seen (and I have been following politics closely for 30 years). All of this corruption, bribery, and waste of our money was done by a president, congress, and senate 100% controlled by democrats.

Blaming the republicans is falling on deaf ears. The democrats didn't need a single republican vote to pass any of their bills.

The democrats that think that voters are mad because congress isn't moving fast enough have still not grasped the reality that 60% of this country is right of center. Yet, congress is 60% left of center and the President, Speaker, and Majority leader are all in the far left fringe of liberalism. Only 20% of the country is as liberal as they are.

John: you said, "Well, the most recent washington post/ABC poll had 63% of the american public wanting lawmakers continue and try and pass a comprehensive health reform bill."

How do you reconcile that their poll, dated 2 days ago, shows that only 46% approve of this bill and yet you claim another polls shows that 63% want congress to pass it. Do you really expect us to believe that there are 17% who don't support this plan but want it passed? Something's fishy there.

Besides that glaring discrepancy, come on. Get real. ABC/Post? Look at their history of polls on healthcare. They consistently show support at least 10 points higher than the median. They are just about as bad as YouGov.

Another poll elsewhere shows that 63% of voters say it would be better if the majority of congress was not reelected. 61% disapprove of the job congress is doing. A majority think that most members of congress are corrupt. And only 38% say that their congressman deserves to be reelected this year.

These have to be extremely disturbing poll results for democrats. two-thirds of all voters want to throw every congressman out and those that particularly want to throw democrats out are extremely more enthused than those that want to keep them in. We could see a historic election shaping up. I'm beginning to think that a 60 - 70 seat loss, or more, for the democrats is possible.

Then, I hope all of the remaining republicans are thrown out in 2012. I would love to see a 40% - 50% turnover in congress every single election rather than a 96% reelection rate like we have had for the past 50 years.

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Farleftandproud:

Indys are not actually leaving the Democrats, they are just angry at the incumbents who are more likely to be Democrats. THat isn't to say that there aren't some Republican seats vulnerable, and states with long time GOP governors may elect a Democrat. Even states that lean red. I think the voters have to look beyond the party and support the candidate who runs the better campaign.

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Farleftandproud:

I do agree Obama is expecting too much out of the current house and senate GOP. He has to realize that they don't want to support anything he is supporting, even if some so-called moderates, suggested the same ideas of cap and trade and insurance reform when Bush was president. They are being one way with there constituents and being happy to take federal money to create jobs, and than when they are in Washington, saying that Obama's spending is downright evil. Fewer jobs have been lossed since Obama has become president, compared to the last 14 months of Bush. Obama has a long way to go; that is for sure, but I think in the long run, the stimulus will work.

I wonder what types of economic recovery John Mccain would have come out with had he won? He would have either done absolutely nothing, and gave more tax cuts to the rich, or he would have been moved to have done a similar stimulus to what Obama did. He will never admit it either way, because now Obama is the guy in office and the GOP's strategy is to disagree with all Obama's strategies. Obama can pretend to be Ronald Reagan for a week, and come out with similar policies and the GOP will still find some way to oppose it and say the plan is evil.

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Farleftandproud:

The only way Obama can stop the bleeding on losing independents in the mid term is to have 3 or 4 concrete bills to sign this next year. America likes a take charge guy not a pushover.

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John:

"How do you reconcile that their poll, dated 2 days ago, shows that only 46% approve of this bill and yet you claim another polls shows that 63% want congress to pass it. Do you really expect us to believe that there are 17% who don't support this plan but want it passed? Something's fishy there."

I think you are confusing the specific bill(s) which currently the american public do not like, (especially the process on how they were reached), to the wish for comprehensive health reform which almost all polls show a significant majority supporting.

As to ABC/post polls' trends compared to the median on health care reform, it is true that they tend to show more support than the median but my point was to question the statement that 55% of the american public want the president to give up on Health reform, since the ABC/Post was the most recent poll asking the question, and even given their past leaning, 63% is a pretty healthy majority, I think it was reasonable evidence to back my point.

The only way to have a regular higher turnover in the house is by taking the power to draw district lines away from the representives and give it to an independent commission but neither party are likely to do that in the near future.

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