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US: Generic Ballot (Gallup 6/28-7/3)

Topics: National , poll

Gallup
6/28-7/3/10; 1,354 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
46% Republican, 44% Democrat (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

I think anytime there is a crusade against throwing out illegals who ARE TAKING OUR JOBS, the anti-humanitarian GOP always knows how to suck voters in.

The truth about anti-immigration laws is you have states like RI and Mass that are tough on deporting people who are not here legally or whose visa expired. In these states, however the illegals who are deported are from many nationalities and races. I knew a guy from Ukraine who was married to an American in NY state and was deported because he forgot to renew his visa.

Immigration was a huge vote winner for the GOP in 1994 and than when Bush became president the GOP turned to fighting middle eastern terrorists. Immigrants of non-islamic origin were not checked very well, and George W. Bush took 5 years before he tried to pass immigration reform.

Pete Wilson in CA and others like him had temporary success in seducing angry voters who wanted to close our borders in 1994. I think Gov. Brewer might have found the key issues to win independent voters who think we need to step up efforts to throw those who they think are taking our jobs.

They asked for Obama to send more National guard troops but simply want the laws to be their way or the highway.

Obama is in a tough situation because he knows he has to fight for immigration reform.

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JMSTiger:

Good, solid numbers for the GOP. If they are tied or slightly ahead on Gallup's generic ballot in late October, it will be a bloodbath for the Democrats. If the election were held today, the Republicans would probably pick-up 35+ House seats, 5+ Senate seats and 5+ governorships. The problem for them is that it is not yet late October. Things can still change, although I doubt they change very much in the less than 4 months between now and election day.

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Bigmike:

I believe this should be registered voters as opposed to adults.

If the Dems were down among all adults this would be pretty bad news for them. Among RV, this is in line with most other polls, a slight advantage to the GOP.

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Farleftandproud:

I think if the election were held today, Dems would get killed. That is why we have a campaign season and for the Democrats hanging on to the senate, House, and losing 10 governships is the Independent voters to see the big picture, and for Obama and other Democrats campaign as agressively this year as if Bush was running for a third term in 2008. We need to try to reach the unreachable.

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Country Club Repub:

Everyone says that a tie in gallup's congressional polling equals a 4-5 point lead in the actual vote for the GOP. So that on Election Day this poll might actually indicate that the GOP has a seven point lead instead of two, which would result in a possible 53.5-46.5 outcome in November. If a 50/50 outcome divides the house evenly with the GOP picking up 40 seats then a 53/47 or 54/46 could result in the GOP picking up 65-85 seats. I am aware that the vote percentage total does not necessarily match the seat percentage, as turnout in certain races and can go against the wave but I would say that a gain of at least 40 seats is at this point a pretty safe bet.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Obama should stick to areas where he is still fairly popular to campaign for; I think he should focus on his home state, CA, and Washington.

I think Biden can focus on his home state to at least make that senate race a contest not a coronation for Rep Castle, and most of all Biden should go to Scranton and all the working class parts of PA to help to define what a far right extremist Toomey is. At some point I think Toomey will have to move to moderate some of his views. Does he support the civil rights act of 1964? Does he want to get rid of the Dept of education? Does he want to make abortion a crime, even in cases of rape? These should be questions he'll be asked and see what direction he goes in.

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Farleftandproud:

2002 the Dems had a slight lead in some polls and were tied in others. The GOP actually gained seats. Some polls a few months before the election had the dems by 4. I think The Democrats this time around have some tricks up their sleave and know something about putting the GOP in their place, that I am not aware of.

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Farleftandproud:

I meant Washington state, not DC

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Field Marshal:

OUCH! This is not looking good for the Dems.

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iVote:

Did you drop your copy of Going Rogue on your toes again, Field Marshal? Because I don't see what's so painful about this poll. It's in line with all the others, and is actually an improvement from the 6 point deficit a few weeks back.

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Sean Murphy:

"and is actually an improvement from the 6 point deficit a few weeks back."

What kind of spin is that? Dems were ahead last week on Gallup so aren't things worse for you this week than last?

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iVote:

I'm not a Democrat running for Congress so no, things aren't "worse for me" this week than last. I've had a pretty good week, actually.

Now if you're talking about the generic ballot, then of course the Dems were ahead by a point last week. But it was only really the third time since March. The Republicans have been tied or slightly ahead in Gallup for quite some time now, hence why I don't see what's so shocking about these numbers.

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With all the focus on the national generic ballot, everyone seems to be missing the point. What we aren't seeing is the generic vote, by region. If the Republicans are ahead by 15 points in the south (where we all know Obama is greatly disliked) but trail the Democrats by 5-7 points in all other sections of the country, there will not only not be any "bloodbath," but the Democrats might hold their losses to less than a dozen seats.

The GOP currently holds zero seats in New England, for example. How many seats would turnover in New England, with a big generic vote GOP margin in the South? None, of course.

Where are the regional breakdowns? That's what we really have to look at.

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Sean Murphy:

Nelcon-

The two NH seats are currently listed as lean GOP and a seat or two in Mass may even go Republican this year. You're also dreaming if you think the Dems can hold their losses to less than a dozen.

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@SeanMurphy

You missed my whole point. I wasn't saying that Dems wouldn't lose a seat or two in NE. What I said was that a 15 point generic lead by the GOP in the South would not translate to any loss of seats in New England. Obviously.

My point was that we aren't seeing any regional breakdowns in these generic vote tallies.

And by the way, I think if the Gallup generic is about even, or minus a point or two for the Dems, given the overwhelming negative margin that would occur in the South, it stands to reason that Dems probably have substantial generic leads -- probably 4-6 points -- in all the other regions of the country.

And if that is actually the case, Republican incumbents in the South who won by 53-46 last time who will now win by 60-40 will not change any seats at all.

There are a few Dem seats in the south at risk and they'll probably lose them, but most of the remaining Democratic seats in that region are in very safe African-American majority districts or in big urban areas and aren't at risk even in the South.

So if the rest of the country has a substantial Democratic generic edge, just where is this mythical "wave" going to come from?

Like I said, we need to see polling that breaks down the Dem/Rep generic margins in the East, Midwest, Mountain West, Southwest and Pacific Coast. Nobody really cares that Republicans will dramatically outpoll Democrats in the South. They already own the bulk of those seats anyway.

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Field Marshal:

nelcon,

That is patently false. There are plenty of blue seats in the south that are now leaning or in the tossup column that Dems currently hold.

Check out the RCP house assessment. Just a few of the seats: LA3, TN6, TN8, MS1, KS3, TX17, FL2, FL8, AR1, AL2, FL2, SC5, MO4, FL24, AR2 VA5, NC8, VA11.

They show 199 GOP seats "safe" (with an obvious increase in seats of 21 seats from the current 178. Then you have 36 toss up seats, all but 1 of which are currently held by the Dems.

But keep believing. I'm sure you premonition will become true.

The generic ballot is currently using an RV screen. Gallup will look more like Ras in Sept when they switch to the LV screen.

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Xenobion:

2%... Lets make a mountain out of a molehill. Oh wait... we did that 1 year ago and its still going on...

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