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US: Generic Ballot (PPP 9/10-13)

Topics: National , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
9/10-13/10; 590 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
45% Democrat, 44% Republican (chart)

 

Comments
melvin:

The Democrats is going to keep the House at 230 to 205,and keep the Senate at 55 to 45..You can bet a Million Dollars on that,because i just went back in did some research in it looks like the GOP is going to have a hard time winning 26 seats that the Democrats either took with over 60% of the vote in 2008,or went unchallenged...The GOP didn't have this major problem back in 1994,because the majority of the seats the GOP had to win back in 1994 was down in the South,and the GOP didnot lose 1 of they're own seats to the Democrats in 1994,but they might lose 7 this year.

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melvin:

The gop lead is going to diminish by October 15th,because more Democrats is going to be paying more attention to the up coming Election...Democrats normally take a break doing the summer,but when the fall comes the Democrats pay alot more attention.

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Farleftandproud:

Melvin, I predict that this is the turning point in this election, where all this right wing talk about getting rid of taxes, taking back their country, and the fact that Obama could be Arabic, is finally taking it's toll.

Although, I think there are regional differences, that voters will come home to the Democrats in New England,NY the Mid Atlantic and Eastern PA, IL, MN, WI,MI parts of Iowa, CA, Washington, and Oregon. That is a lot of house seats right there.

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melvin:

Because the minority vote is going to be around 20%,it means the GOP have to have over a 12pt lead in the generic ballet come November...The reason the GOP won 52 seats in 1994,was because the Minority vote was only 8%,and the reason the GOP only gained 5 seats in 2002 after having a 10pt lead in the CNN generic ballet lead the day before the Midterms was because the Minority vote shot up to 15%,which prevented the GOP from making a significant gain like they did in 1994.

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melvin:

A close friend to Senator Snowe told a Minnesota radio station a few minutes ago that Senator Snowe is not going to run again....Am i surprised.

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Farleftandproud:

If it stays this way, Dems will still lose seats in places in the south, and rural midwest and west. There is no doubt that these places don't trust Obama, and many of them, not all of them think he is un-American, but perhaps Boxer can be saved, IL can be saved, Maybe a miracle in PA, a win for the Dems in NH and of course DE.

This is still tough for the Democrats if it holds up, but it could be enough to keep the majority in the house.

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melvin:

To show you how loony the right-wingers are,they are blasting a right-winger who name is Karl Rove....O'Donnell didn't pay taxes for 5 years,and lied about graduating from a prestigious university,and thinks masturbation is a sin...OMG

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melvin:

The Democrats needs to start running National ADS immediately talking about how the GOP plans to privatize Social Security,and how they plan to do away with Medicare in Medicaid..What in the hell is the Democrats waiting for' Jesus Christ Man....Its time the Democrats play the Republican game called fear,but the Democrats fears wont be lies.

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Bob in SJ:

Pattern: RVs even, LVs 5-10 for Republicans.

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Bigmike:

The Dems always claim that the GOP is going to take away social security. And that they will start up the draft again. Why should it be any different this time? And of course it won't be any truer this time.

To put a copule of old sayings together, don't count your chickens on a single poll.

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Bigmike:

Especially one with (D) after their name!

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Vance Ulrich:

Bigmike, If congressional Republicans and President Bush had their way, social security would have been privatized years ago.

Second off, why would the GOP start the draft again? That would mean the rich, educated, and whites would have to serve!

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cmbat:

@Vance - Good one.

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BH:

RV's at six weeks out. LOL. Yeah, a clear turning point.

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BH:

Oh man, this poll is even worse than I thought. Not only were RVs polled, but here's the party breaks:

41D
36R
23I

Sheesh, re-weight them reasonably and the Rs are probably +7-9.

The devil is always in the details.

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Paleo:

Yeah, they should switch to likely voters. And 590 is not a big enough national sample.

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Farleftandproud:

Melvin, I think there are too many people who I run into each day, and many of them are old friends, and they just don't have a clue. I have to explain to them what the Tea party movement is all about. In a poll 44 percent of Americans don't have a clue. That is worrisome.

I think the VT's governor's race will have the opposite affect of the rest of the US, and perhaps, the voters of Washington State, CT, Oregon and likely DE and MD might be seeing that as well. The angry movements against Obama care and wanting to take their country back, death panels, and all this extreme angry religious rhetoric is starting to take it's toll.

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Field Marshal:

Bigmike, If congressional Republicans and President Bush had their way, social security would have been privatized years ago.

Yup, and it would have been great. But alas the dems refuse to even admit there's a problem with SS let alone offer up solutions to it.

Second off, why would the GOP start the draft again? That would mean the rich, educated, and whites would have to serve!

Yeah. And it would mean rich, whiney, white liberals would have to serve their country for once. Won't happen!


AP has a new poll out that shows a 55-39 edge to the GOP in the generic polling.

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Paleo:

CBS/NY Times has a poll out showing Republicans up 2 among likely voters, and Democrats up 4 among registered voters.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/nytdocs/docs/483/483.pdf

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Field Marshal:

Bigmike, If congressional Republicans and President Bush had their way, social security would have been privatized years ago.

Yup, and it would have been great. But alas the dems refuse to even admit there's a problem with SS let alone offer up solutions to it.

Second off, why would the GOP start the draft again? That would mean the rich, educated, and whites would have to serve!

Yeah. And it would mean rich, whiney, white liberals would have to serve their country for once. Won't happen!


AP has a new poll out that shows a 55-39 edge to the GOP in the generic polling.

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Paleo:

Took a look at that AP poll. A 5/7% MOE for likely voters! And 36% of the sample from the south, 13 points more than any other region.

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK%20Poll%20September%20Topline%20091510_1.pdf

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK%20Poll%20September%20Topline%20091510_1.pdf

Among registered voters, it's 46-43 Republicans.

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MoralHazard:

melvin:

"The Democrats is going to keep the House at 230 to 205,and keep the Senate at 55 to 45..You can bet a Million Dollars on that.."

So how much money are YOU betting on that? You could earn great returns on intrade based on the predictions that Republicans will get no more than 205 house seats and no more than 45 senate seats!

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History repeating itself? On Sept. 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers failed. John McCain was ahead of Barack Obama in the polls and everyone said a post-Labor Day lead like that would result in a McCain win. Then McCain imploded with his "I'm halting my campaign until the financial crisis is over," and the rest, as they say, is history.

Today is Sept. 15, 2010. Republicans were ahead in all the polls for generic ballot voting and everyone said a post-Labor Day lead like that would result in a "wave" election with Republicans winning the House and maybe also the Senate. Then the GOP imploded by nominating a bunch of total kooks for some of the highest legislative positions in the country, with some of the most bizarre backgrounds anyone has ever seen for candidates for US Senate from one of our two major parties.

To me, this is the same as McCain's famous implosion. The rest, as they say, could be history.

Watch for a strong pro-Democratic surge in the polls, particularly among non-partisan voters, over the next 2-3 weeks. It happened in 2008 thanks to John McCain. It can also happen in 2010 thanks to a small voting block of probably 20-25% of the Republican base making those decisions for the whole party.

I think history will indeed repeat itself.

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gabe:

Ah yes, ine generic ballot survey of 600 voters shows the GOP is tanking. Thanks Melvin and FLAP.

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BH:

"To me, this is the same as McCain's famous implosion."

Eh, no. McCain suffered because of Bush and the perception that the GOP was the incumbent party in power. That's not the case this year. Plus, there's no big unexpected shock to the markets going on right now...just the slow crawl sideways and an unhappy electorate that clearly is laying the blame on the Dems. and their one trillion dollar gamble (with other people's money) that hasn't yielded the originally promised 8% unemployment.

Summer of recovery, anyone? That's what's driving the coming 60-100 seat swing in six weeks.

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tjampel:

Keeping the comparison apples to apples I'd like to know if PPP is seeing any interesting trends in the last sample vs this one. I'll be checking their blog for that.

This poll shows a 4 point gain for Dems over PPP's August generic ballot poll. PPP had noted last week that Dems in 2009 became far more enthusiastic over the last 2 months of the campaign than they were during the summer months. This was very marked in NJ, and NY, and even happened in VA despite the negative results there.

In NJ Corzine came close only because Dems started to come together over the last two months. In NY Owens won because Dems turned out the vote in a Republican district (and of course the Repub candidate delivered some moderate Repubs as well).

Far too little info to make any statements or grandiose predictions. I need to see Gallup and Ras over the next two weeks (and PPP's next and probably final generic in October). If Gallup goes to LV, finally, and the numbers are +6 or +7 for Repubs I'd consider that a very good sign for Dems; right now, since, based on the last three Gallup polls and adding in 6.5 for the LV screen Repubs up by about 11.5%. Of course, if we see double digit results from Gallup for a few weeks in a row then we know---the wave is so real its...surreal.

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@BH: You missed my point. Of course this is not the same as the McCain implosion. What I was saying is that it's ironic that 2 years to the day later, a cataclysmic event occurs during an election year just as the pundits were proclaiming it was "all over for the other side."

I consider the O'Donnell win and the media circus surrounding the teapot crackpots being the same sort of a game-changing cataclysmic event that turned entire elections around.

There was of course the McCain blunder on Sept. 15, 2008. There was also Pres. Bush I looking at his watch during the debate against Clinton & Perot. There was the Dukakis tank ride and the Willie Horton ad. There was the makeup error on Richard Nixon's beard in the first Kennedy/Nixon TV debate, and so on. Now the O'Donnell victory in Delaware culminating a bunch of weirdos winning GOP primaries to become elected members of the venerable US Senate.

I'd keep an eye on the polls for the next 2 weeks, as well as the media commentary to see if it goes from "Dems are doomed," which it has been up until now, to "GOP wrestles with weird candidates in their midst and may blow the entire election."

My point on the McCain incident was simply the odd coincidence that it occurred on Sept. 15, 2008, with the O'Donnell primary win also occurring on Sept. 15, in this case 2010.


A lot of smart people out there say there are no such things as coincidences!

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havoc:

melvin:
Because the minority vote is going to be around 20%,it means the GOP have to have over a 12pt lead in the generic ballet come November...The reason the GOP won 52 seats in 1994,was because the Minority vote was only 8%,and the reason the GOP only gained 5 seats in 2002 after having a 10pt lead in the CNN generic ballet lead the day before the Midterms was because the Minority vote shot up to 15%,which prevented the GOP from making a significant gain like they did in 1994.

Seems like we have gone through this before. Lets try again. The poll is of the american electerate of all colors. There is a L.V. screen which is the "art" part of the process. So if the results on election day are GOP +15% they will gain between 50 and 100 seets. This would be true if the electerate was 100% minority. Every house seat is up for election so if a party wins a significant majority of the vote they will win the most seats.

As for 94' vs. 02' the difference in the gain in seats was because the GOP allready had the majority in 02'. Get it. It matters what the starting point is. If you have a hundred seat majority you would have to win by alot just to break even.

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I am surprised from Senator Snowe who told a Minnesota radio station a few minutes ago that Senator Snowe is not going to run again ....

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CompCon:

melvin has always been a moron and farleft is pretty close in mentality, but you intelligent liberals don't actually believe the crap your throwing out don't you?

There won't be any surge for democrats, they aren't going to keep the house, and they are edging closer to losing the senate every day. Optimism is one thing but stupidity is another.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"There won't be any surge for democrats, they aren't going to keep the house, and they are edging closer to losing the senate every day."

Meh. Maybe they will maybe they won't. Looks more likely that they will but I have a feeling the media is sensationalizing the whole thing, since historically losses for the party in power during a president's first mid-term are almost inevitable barring a seismic event like 9/11. Democrats gained 54 seats in 06-08. So any losses less than 54 should not be seen as some sort of climactic occurrence. It's just a snap back to the highly partisan country that acted a little united after 9/11, but remains about as divided as it was in 2000.

What I do know is that politics are cyclical and no matter how badly dems get beaten they will come back in a number of years, with a new hopey changey person. People have forgotten Clinton's 92 hopey-changeyness or Carter's 76 hopeyness or JFK's 1960 changeyness. Since WWII, really, democratic candidates have had very similar themes, win or lose. Hubert Humphrey's 1968 campaign had a "hope" theme.

Republicans went from 88 house seats in 1936 to 209 in 1942 to 248 in 1946. The only thing holding them back from taking control of the house more often in the ensuing years was the democrats' kung-fu grip on the south. Once that started to dismantle, the republicans became more viable.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Compcon,

The House is still off the table for the Dems, but DE Tea Partiers put the Senate right back in Democratic Control. Thanks for Delware!

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