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US: Generic Ballot (Zogby 4/16-19)

Topics: poll

Zogby
4/16-19/10; 2,018 likely voters, 2.2% margin of error
Mode: Internet
(Zogby release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
44% Republican, 42% Democrat (chart)

Obama Job Approval
49% Approve, 51% Disapprove (chart)

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Not bad poll for Zogby on the congressional ballot. I find Zogby to be right of ctr in the past. Big difference between 2 points on here and 10 on Rasmussen.

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tjampel:

Interesting that Ras has Job approval at the nearly the same level as this poll today (49-50%).

So, what's the story with the Generic? I think it's the way likely voters are screened by both, and the way each computes the enthusiasm component and other demographic components which would make it more or less likely that a particular segment would vote or not. Not saying Ras fudges this but, face it, Ras is a Repub, and Zogby is a Dem. The truth probably lies somewhere in between...around 5

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Aaron_in_TX:

Ras is a lot more reliable than Zogby though.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

"Among independents, 42% say they will vote for the Republican candidate, 25% will vote for the Democratic candidate, 8% will vote for neither, and 26% are not sure. "

Yikes! His 18-30 approval rating is down to 52%,, Independents are down to 41%.

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kariq:

Of course, all of that is irrelevant since it's an internet poll and therefore about as accurate as rolling dice.

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tjampel:

Nate over at fivethirtyeight.com finds Ras's house effect to be stronger now than it was in the last few cycles, and he doesn't think their likely voter screen, in and of itself accounts for it; he says that the screen is actually pretty loose compared to some others. He attributes it (among other factors, of course) to the fact that the demographics that actually pick up land lines and talk to computerized recordings tends to be a little older and more conservative, and that Ras still hasn't gotten around to polling cell phone users. The gap between younger people with cell phones as their primary mode of communicating and older ones who don't even have cell phones or who rely mainly on land lines is growing every day.

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Rockym92:

@tjampel

Ras is supposed to weight their polls for the differences that you just stated (which they do). Maybe they are not weighting it enough. We will have to see if they are right come election time.

Nate also said Ras had almost 0 house effect at all in the last couple cycles but now it is 6%.

None of it really adds up to me. Ras has had Obama in the 48-50% of approval for a little bit now, so would that mean that his approval is really 54-56%? That would be waaaaay higher than even the most favorable results for Obama.

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