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US: Health Care (Time 7/27-28)


Time / Abt SRBI
7/27-28/09; 1,002 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

(Time story, SRBI analysis)

National

Obama Approval / Disapproval
Health Care: 46 / 46 (chart)

Importance of Passing Health Care Reform

69% Very / Somewhat
28% Not very / Not at all

Would it be better to pretty much stay with the current healthcare system and just
make some minor adjustments, or does the system need major reform?

55% Major reform
43% Minor adjustments

Party ID
34% Democrat, 23% Republican, 32% independent (chart)

 

Comments
Stillow:

Look at that split on apporval for health care.....what a dividing issue this is....

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LordMike:

Well, the problem with gauging approval for Obama in health care reform, is that while half of the disapproval is from people who don't want reform, the other half is from people people who feel that he's not doing enough to move things forward...

The other numbers don't surprise me, but it seem that the politicians are totally out of touch about this, and just hoping the issue just "goes away" instead of actively doing something about it!

This should also be a warning to those in congress who want meaningless, incremental reforms. The voters want big changes! they will not be satisfied with watered down "bipartisan" bills that don't fundamentally change anything....

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Blue Sun:

One of the more interesting observations I've made over time is that, if you take Rasmussen out of the mix, the approval numbers for Obama and his policies are significantly higher - often 5 to 7 points. Rasmussen continues to be the most distant negative outlier, ranking Obama and Democratic policies lower than other polls, sometimes significantly.

During the Bush administration, I followed a site that graphed all of the job approval ratings in the 15 major polls for a period of 6 years. Again, Rasmussen was the most dramatic outlier - only this time it was in favor of the Bush administration and its policies. While most of the polls consistently clustered around the linear regression line, Rasmussen was always high, ranging from 2 to 14 points higher than the mean. Zogby was less consistently an outlier, but often was the most negative outlier for Bush. I basically eliminated both of them.

It has long been demonstrable that keeping Rasmussen in the mix ends up in slanting numbers up for the Republicans and down for the Democrats.

The smartest way to read a two-dimensional graph of poll data over time is to throw out the highest and lowest outliers (or toss out anything beyond, say, two standard deviations) and process only the remaining data. Once you have thrown out the noise, just apply a smoothing algorithm to the remaining data points and you will have a much more accurate and realistic picture than the pollster.com figures.

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conspiracy:

The Rasmussen factor was and is exacerbated by it being a daily poll. Gallup really cancels it out to an extent.

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Wong:

I have noticed Rasmussen's party affiliation to be completely out of whack compared to other polls. Of course, different pollers use different criteria when polling for likely voters and keep said criteria secret.

However, if a polling firm, in an effort to push rather than survey public opinion, deliberately oversampled Republicans, one could expect the results one sees from Rasmussen.

That, combined with the huge amount of money Rasmussen takes from Republicans, makes their results highly suspect.

I suppose they could be correct and everyone else wrong, but my gut tells me different.

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Stillow:

We've been thru this over and over....pollsters are all biased and many of there numbers will reflect that.

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Andy (AKA: The Yangban):

Don't worry. The other pollsters will catch up with Rasmussen in a few weeks. Seriously, even if you cut out Ras and Gallup, the trends would not be altered that much.

Another interesting thing about this poll is that solid majorities believe the current proposals will raise their costs, limit their choices and make health care more complicated.

I expect things to get even more interesting as the debate moves forward.

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