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US: McCain 48, Obama 46 (GWU-9/22-28)

Topics: PHome

GWU Battleground
Tarrance Group(R)/ Lake Research (D)
9/22-9/25,9/28; 1,000; 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
McCain 48, Obama 46

 

Comments
MNLatteLiberal:

I wonder if the GWU staff believes their poll accurately reflects reality. That is all.

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JoelR:

Who exactly are these people calling?

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1magine:

Oh no - we've lost its all over. I can't belive it. McCain muttering horse**** 2X must have played exceptionally well in the battlegrounds. I knew we were wrong to push financial oversight, and oppose spreading democracy through violent invasion. Damn. You know who's fault this is...oh wait - its GWU Battleground.... nevermind.

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Shaft:

Just how does GWU sample its population?!??! Do they call NRA members and evangelical cults in texas and approximate that to represent the US pop?

They have results that differ with every poll out there. Guess they must be eating meals that are fair and balanced!

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boomshak:

MARK MY WORDS:

This race will be within the MOE by election day. Obama may actually win as he carries the DEAD + IMAGINARY PEOPLE vote by 10:1.

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BOOMFAIL:

JoelR:
Q-"Who exactly are these people calling?"

A-boomshak

Let them believe this poll all they want. Seems right in line with Research2000 showing Obama up by 9% today.


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Mike_in_CA:

GWU is deliberately weighting their polls to reflect a D+3% population. And they seem to be sticking to it. This absurd and embarassing on its face. Every other poll shows Obama pulling away, and GWU shows McCains level of support at 48?! They may soon become irrelevant if they dont modify their methodology....

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boomshak:

@Mike_in_CA:

Closer to the Rasmussen sampling than the absurb Gallup and MSM polls.

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1magine:

Odd virtually every category favors Obama, and trending his way. By huge magorities those polled felt the economic cris was the most important issue, and again by huge magorities felt BO would handle it better.

Most seem to feel that their "neighbors" would have a problem voting for a 72 year old man.

No real demographic cross tabs. How many men or women polled, race, state of residence or party affiliation. Poll was conducted over several days ending on Friday.

Not scientific but the way the report is posted makes it looks my 12 year old's work product. Trend graph to bar graph to pie chart - - holy graphical A.D.D. Batman!

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Bonowski:

Hmmm. This poll is interesting. Zogby's latest poll is also very close, although he has Obama on top by 1.2%: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1564

I'd like to compare sample sizes of GWU/Zogby and Gallup Daily/Rasmussen/Daily Kos/ABC/Fox.

Zogby has some really weird numbers as of their September 25th polls (i.e. McCain up by 5 points in PA - http://www.zogby.com/50state/) I'm not sure how I feel about them.

Ahhh...polls, you can't trust any of them.

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PHGrl:

Forget about comparing this poll to others..or the party affiliation.

Take a look at the trends over time.
A 2pt overall shift towards obama (O up by 1, M down by 1).

WITHIN this poll, the trends towards Obama are consistent w/others..

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Mike_in_CA:

boomshak, Rasmussen has adjusted the party ID weighting to 6+ which is much closer to Gallup's 9, Hotline's 6, and DKos' 9. The moral of the story is, either every other poll is flawed, or this one is. Frankly, I'm a bit disappointed. These guys are usually the best pollsters, but I'm afraid this time they need to make some adjustments. No sane person, not even you I presume, would argue that McCain obtains 48% support....

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macsuk:

All except boomcrap

To answer your questions this poll only gives a 2% party ID advantage to Democrats with the next lowest being Rasmussen at around 5.75%. This also explains why this same poll is an outlier with the Generic Congressional Poll as well in RCP.

To me it appears Obama has a 5% lead going into Palins embarrassment on Thursday.

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boomshak:

@Mike_in_CA:

No, Rasmussen has adjusted to +5.6%. Stop lying, you are starting to sound like Obama!

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boomshak:

@macsuk:

LIAR! This poll gives a 3% edge to Democrats. Try doing research before you mouth off next time.

OBAMA IS A LIAR!

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boomshak:

I WILL WAGER THE FUNK IN THE BOTTOM OF THIS MORNING'S COFFEE CUP:

That by this Sunday, Rasmussen has this race back to within the MOE.

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macsuk:

I agree with this article and I believe the Battleground Poll is going to have the success they had in 2000 opposed to the results boomshak mentioned earlier.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3089433/Barack-Obamas-top-team-believes-he-can-win-White-House-by-a-landslide.html

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george:

Did you notice last night's individual poll number in the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll? Obama, 52%; McCain, 41%

Movement, perhaps?

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macsuk:

boomcrap

2% ID advantage unless the polsters were lying during an interview with NPR.

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John:

The main problem with this poll is not so much the party-id, although it is on low side, it is on the age demographics. It has 30% of the electorate over 65, while just under 17% under 35. In 2004, according to the exit poll, only 16% of the electorate was over 65, while 17% of the electorate was under 30.

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db:

The GWU data show improbably low variation given the sample size. Something smells.

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Inkan1969:

boomshak:

Why do you feel that you have to scream every time?

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boomshak:

AS SUSPECTED, RASMUSSEN SHOWS LEAD NARROWING (WHICH MEAN OBAMA ONLY POLLED +3 TO +4 SUNDAY)

Monday, September 29, 2008

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the fourth straight day Obama has been at 50% and the fourth straight day McCain has been at either 44% or 45% (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 55%."

This supports my theory that as the financial crisis eases, Obama surge will as well.

GO MCCAIN! OBAMA IS A LIAR!

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metsmets:

The main problem with this poll is not so much the party-id, although it is on low side, it is on the age demographics. It has 30% of the electorate over 65, while just under 17% under 35. In 2004, according to the exit poll, only 16% of the electorate was over 65, while 17% of the electorate was under 30.


I agree 100% !!!

I checked the actual turnout for 2004 with this poll:

2004 18-34 voters 28% of votes cast
POLL: 22 % ( - 6%)
2004 35-54 voters 39% of votes cast
POLL: 35 % ( - 4%)
2004 55 + voters 33% of votes cast
POLL: 40 % ( + 7%)

The only explanation is that this pollster is expecting a staggering turnout of seniors in battleground states and a very low youth vote. Guess who that helps?

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boomshak:

Rasmussen Declares END to Obama Surge!

Monday, September 29, 2008

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That’s the fourth straight day Obama has been at 50% and the fourth straight day McCain has been at either 44% or 45% (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 55%."

Just like last time, Obama tops at at +6 then fades back. The man is a WEAK WEAK candidate.

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1magine:

John: Is that wrong? Should they adjust? Nahh.

Hey Boom - you know I've never personally addressed you before, but I've been thinking about a post you made - maybe Sat. I had a high temp all weekend so I could not really answer. But it was about God and the election.

If you would do me the honor of hearing me out for 1 minute.

To me, God is all our parents. And just like our siblings perceptions of our parents and shared events - so do all our perceptions of God and events. I am not sure how you see our father. But to me, the pivotal ideas God has laid before us occur first in Genises - when we learn of how much time and energy God took to create this workld for us. God took 6 days, God it was not 'snap' and its done. He took great care and oversight and it was hard work because even God rested on the 7th day. To me this has always spoken to the vital importance God places on all living things, from the single celled Omeba, to the DoDo Bird, to Humans. I have always felt that no species has right to extinguish another, and in fact a responsibility given from God to protect all living things.

Next God sent Jesus here. And the pivotal events in Jesus's life occurs in the desert. Where he is tempted over 40 days by the devil, offered political power, and riches and he declines. Such is his response to the temple guard, "Give unto God what is due God, and Give unto Cesaer what is due Ceaser." To me a clear direction that Church and STate should be seperate.

And then Jesus emerges from the desert and proceeds to give the Sermon on the mount. Jesus speaks then and throughout the rest of his life about treating your neighbor as you would like to be treated, to feed the hungry, house the homeless and tend to the ill. To me this has always spoke of our need to make these things priorities in our life, especially universal health care appears to be a mandate freom God.

I have spent much of my life reading Jesus's words and I do not find that he himself once talks about homosexuals, or men lying with men, or the destruction of a fetus. (and yes quasi medical tools - likely for that purpose have been located throughout the mideast - though dating has been difficult to narrow.) Of course I'm sure like all sane people Jesus like myself abhors the destruction of human life. But I don't ever see him talk of the potential for human life. I don't think he thought every egg and every sperm were sacred. I could be wrong.

Any way - for me it is because of God's word that I am a Democrat, not in spite of it. I would hope that yourself and those similarly situated will one day if not see my point of view, at least understand why I see things the way I do.

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GboroNC:

@boom

That makes no sense.

The quote that you posted suggests the poll is good for Obama because he remains at the 50% bar while McCain remains at the 44-45% nothing has changed. On top of that Obama is viewed more favorably than McCain.

If anything the trend is steady not Pro-McCain and with Obama at +5% having a steady trend is a good thing for Mr. Obama.

Also please refrain from abusing caps lock we can all read the normal typeface.

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RS:

Ummm... No cross-tabs? The link appears to point to a poll ending 9/25/08.
Didn't someone say that polls without cross-tabs are FAIL?

Looks like there are fewer GOP trolls these days, apart from one flailing about like his/her preferred candidate. Nuts!

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jamesugw:

Boomshak -
I take it you're on anti-depressants?

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Inkan1969:

boomshak:

Why do you keep screaming?

Also, shouldn't you wait for a few days to see if the Ras poll actually narrows? You're really screaming about an Obama decline after just one day?

And now six points is no big deal? Six points of a ras poll, whose numbers have always been so tight that 1% or 2% of either candidate has been the expected norm?

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Mike_in_CA:

boomshak,

at least you tacitly admit that you've become a parody of yourself. :)

1. You have NO IDEA what Rasmussen's numbers were for last night's individual polling. And even if they WERE +4 that entirely within the margin of error.

One cannot detect a trend by comparing two day's worth of polling, otherwise there would ALWAYS be a trend, unless the results were exactly identical between days....

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boomshak:

@1magine:

I have nothing againts homsexuality and personally believe that it is a genetic condition. I mean, face it, your typical heterosexual male doesn't just wake up on day craving penis.

I have also lived in many cities with high homosexual populations and thus has many gay acquaintances. All the one's I knew realized they were gay upon reaching puberty (which would make sense).

The gays I have known have been very nice people, although I find their sexuality repugnant.

I also have no problem with gay marriage. As a matter of fact, I think it would promote monogamy and lessen the spread of aids.

As I have stated before, I am fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

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AmericaFirst:

Even if this poll is right, without the battlegrounds, O is beating Mc by 229-174 in the EV. Obama only needs a couple BGs to win, McCain needs a sweep. 48% isn't going to give him the sweep he needs.

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Tyler:

Remember everyone, if Obama isn't winning by a crushing landslide of 400+ EVs and 65% of the vote, he's really losing.

I mean geez they teach this kind of stuff in Desperate Republican Math 101.

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boomshak:

I apologize for the caps lock. I agree that is rude.

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boomshak:

Rasmussen Tells The Tale:

If you look at Rasmussen's internals, he has Obama leading amongst women by 15 and tied amongst white women. There's the difference in your poll right there.

When Mccain surged, he surged among women. If Palin does geat Thursday, look for McCain to surge among white women again.

This race is tied by Sunday.

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DaveAustralia:

@boomshak

Heres whats going to happen.

Palin blows the debate on thursday and Republicans and the rest of the country will question McCains judgment in selecting her. Then he's going to blow his lid as he is prone to do when under pressure and the election is gone.

Texas will be in play by sunday.

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serpounce:

Oh this is that "battleground" poll that is one of the always-counted polls at RCP, that one has been a McCain outlier most of the race. Of course that doesn't mean it's wrong, maybe their the ones with the right formula, but it doesn't show movement towards McCain.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Interesting poll! Of course, Obamabots will dismiss it and run with "DailyKos" instead lol!

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serpounce:

Boomshak, Rasmussen still has Obama at 50 (I believe it's highest point), McCain picking up a point is nice, but pulling in undecideds isn't enough at this point, he has to pick off Obama voters.

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IndependentThinker:

BREAKING NEWS:
This poll is financed by Karl Rove and Sean Hannity

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KipTin:

You guys do realize that this poll involves both Democrats and Republicans, right?

Read closely... there was also polling for yesterday on 9/28.

Regarding age demographics, if Florida (#2) and Pennsylvania (#3) are included as Battleground States, then the numbers are far greater for older voters. (West Virginia is #1).

One needs to realize that the proportion of youth voters are shrinking as the older voters increase...Hint: The first Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) just turned 62 this year... As well as for LIKELY voters, the youth are not as reliable. Here are numbers from 2004 election from The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement:

18-24 47%
25-34 56%
35-44 64%
45-54 69%
55-64 73%
65-74 73%
75+ 69%

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Inkan1969:

boomshak:

If you agree that screaming is rude, why have you repeatedly done it? You did the same thing right after the first debate.

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kkpollster:

Guys: For all those crazed delusional people whom want to dismiss GW Battleground Poll; Please see the results from last time. They called the election dead, on where the others you guys keep sighting were off by 1-3% some incorrectly calling it for Kerry. Those are the facts not opinions.

Poll Bush Kerry Nader Error
Final Results 51.0% 48.0% 0.4% -
Battleground/Tarrance 51.2 47.8 0.5 Dead On
Pew Research 51 48 1 Dead On
CBS/NY Times 49 46 1 0%
TIPP 50.1 48.0 1.1 1%
CBS News 49 47 1 1%
Rasmussen 50.2 48.5 - 1%
ABC/Wash Post 49 48 0 2%
Harris 49 48 1 2%
NBC/WSJ 48 47 1 2%
Reuters/Zogby 48 47 1 2%
Newsweek 50 44 1 3%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 49 49 1 3%
ARG 48 48 1 3%
Marist College 49 50 0 4

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John:

@KipTin

This is a national poll, not a battleground state poll. The Baby-boomers are not yet 65+, yet in this poll there is an almost doubling of their share (the 65+s) of the electorate from 04. I am genuinely interested in any reason why this would occur or why any pollster would use these demographics.

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boomshak:

@Inkan1969:

Didn't occur to me as rude until you brought it up.

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kkpollster:

GW BATTLEGROUND DEAD ON
PEW DEAD ON

ABC, off 2pts, Newsweek off 3pt, CNN off 3pts, ARG off 3pts, Marist off 4pts.

Now please tell me whom is incorrectly weighting??!!! Wasn't Kerry also suppossedly having this groundswell of youth vote, and voters from his get out the vote operation which cost 200 million dollars, and 100 million dollars more than the other side.

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GboroNC:

@ Kipton

Even with PA and FL as the models for this poll (though I imagine there are far younger battleground states like Colorado) the demograph weighting at 17% Under 35 and 30% over 65 is way off

2004 Exit polls showed that for PA 18-29 made up 21% of total voters and 60+ voters accounted 22% of the total

In FL 2004 exit polls showed 17% 18-29 and 27% 60+

Weighting at 17% for under 35 and 30 for 65+ is way off unless you expect drastically more older voters and drastically fewer younger voters in 2008 than there were in 2004 demographics change, but not that fast.

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boomshak:

@serpounce:

The point is, Obama's surge based upon the financial crisis is over. He most likely got as high daily as +8 on Rasmussen and probably polled +4 Sunday. That's 4 points off his highs.

The next big story is the VP Debates where McCain can get back white women voters with a solid performance by Palin.

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Atomique:

Man, isn't it entertaining to hear the last dying trumpets of the elephant that has been crushing the welfare of the American people (among other countries) for the past eight years? The Repugnant Party is scared $#!&less about the polling numbers of late, and they have good reason. For once, Americans are waking up and we are poised to take this country back!

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boomshak:

This race will be TIED by Sunday.

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lilyogini:

"Go McCain. Obama is a Liar" (boomshak)

WTF? Are you 4 years old?

Like McCain has never lied in any ads or about anything else for that matter? Right.

Sounds like you are getting a little unsettled with every other polls showing Obama with a 50% voter share.

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Atomique:

LOL @ "solid performance by Palin".

She can't even handle Charlie Gibson or Katie Couric, and she's now going to hold her own against Joe Biden? Yeah, right!

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Atomique:

Seriously, I don't understand this Republican idea that women are going to go ga-ga over Palin. What do these people think is going on in women's heads? "Oh, she has a vagina like me, so she's got my vote!" It's really condescending.

Note to Republicans: women have brains too.

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Inkan1969:

boomshak:

You already said "The race will be tied by Sunday." And you screamed again.

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak based on WHAT event will the polls swing back to a tie? Your predictions are pathetic and WORTHLESS. Remember last week McCain was going to be ahead. What happened? McCain will never lead in a reputable poll again, mark my words. What happened with your last prediction, could you explain?

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Inkan1969:

kkpollster:

All but the Marist poll predicted a Bush win. This time all but the Battleground poll is currently predicting an Obama win. That is why right now the Battleground poll is being called into suspicion.

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PortlandRocks:

The race will swing further away from McCain after the debate Thursday night, she isn't going to SUDDENLY gain oratory skills. The woman has a lack of vocabulary beyond a lack of knowledge. YOU CANT FAKE THAT. It will HIGHLIGHT McCain's 1st executive decision. You watch.

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PortlandRocks:

kkpollster I will remind you GALLOP has predicted the winner all but 1 time in the past 50 years. He's up 8 there.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Again, I must wonder out loud:
do these folks at WSU actually believe that their data accurately reflects the reality?

My only concern is their ability to sleep at night.

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PortlandRocks:

I'd probably go with the 10-1 factor on these polls. Obama's clearly in the lead.

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kkpollster:

Portland Rock:

Sorry wrong again: Gallup was in the bottom three of Pollsters they were off by 3 %. Have you forgotten how all the pollsters called Gallup disorganized and not very credible earlier this Summer when they had Mac up by 10 pts and their daily tracker the same day had Obama up by 4-5pts?

Again Portland Rocks here are the facts, Gallup was near the bottom last election: Newsweek (remember they were the ones who said Mondale would defeat Reagan) Gallup, ARG, and Marist off 3-4 percent, bottom of the list of National Pollsters. Put into perspective they were off by nearly 3-4 million people, and PEW and BATTLEGROUND were DEAD ON! Facts not Fiction like your post.

Newsweek 50 44 1 3%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 49 49 1 3%
ARG 48 48 1 3%
Marist College 49 50 0 4%

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kkpollster:

inkan969:

And if you look back at the PEW poll which had the election dead on as well with GW BATTLEGROUND poll, they had the race tied, the same day Battleground had the race tied, and all the other polls showed Obama 4-5 pts up.

GALLUP was bottom three pollster and their percentages off by 3.7million voters. PEW and BATTLEGROUND called the voters margin within 30,000 votes.

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richardkreed:

Wish you guys would quit beating up on Boomshak. T'aint purty, and it offends undecideds. A couple of points:
1. It appears that Obama nearly put the race out-of-reach (5 to 9 point lead) but that it is once again narrowing, with Obama still leading.

2. The extreme rage and BDS (Bush Derangement Syndrome) on the left is very off-putting. What if you do win, liberals? How will you govern effectively in such a toxic environment?

3. I myself plan to vote for Barr, so I don't exactly have a dog in this fight, except to note that media coverage and ballot access rules are grossly partisan and unfair.

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richardkreed:

Oh, and just to be fair: Boomshak, no need to SHOUT. Thanks.

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GboroNC:

@kkpollster

I am having trouble understanding your posts. You seem to be switching between 2004 and 2008 and citing numbers and pecentages without names, dates, or even election years.

Could you clarify your information?

Thanks

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thoughtful:

One to keep it interesting!

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Viperlord:

So when a poll shows McCain up, like this ridiculously unreal poll, it should be believed automatically, right boomy?

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Stuart:

Dems should treat this poll as real.

Donate.
Volunteer.
www.mybarackobama.com

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kkpollster:

GBORO

No I am citing accuracy of BattleGround and Pew from last election and showing their results versus everyone else's this time. If others like Gallup and ABC and Marist were off 3-4% last time and PEW and BATTLEGROUND were Dead on, and in 2008 they are within a point of one another or identical again and the others are showing a 3-5pt lead...

BATTLEGROUND can't be dismissed especially when they are trending similarly to PEW.

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kkpollster:

this year 2008 on 9/11-13

PEW TIE
BATTLEGROUND TIE
Gallup Obama plus 4
CBS Obama plus 4
Hotline Obama plus 5
Quinnipiac Obama plus 5

Last election of 2004:

PEW and BATTLEGROUND DEAD ON.

GALLUP was off by 3 percent
Marist was off by 4 percent.

Conclusion: Battleground is not without company in its assesment and last time in 2004 both PEW and BATTLEGROUND called the percentages right on the nose.

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GboroNC:

@kkpollster

Thanks that answers some of my question but I was also curious if you could claify these polls? This is what I mean with no date name or election year. Are these from 2004? If so who is who and when were they taken?

"Newsweek 50 44 1 3%
CNN/USAT/Gallup 49 49 1 3%
ARG 48 48 1 3%
Marist College 49 50 0 4%"

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laguna_b:

@Stuart

I agree with you....if only because waking up on Nov. 5th with McCain/Palin and nothing changed, with an economy in shambles and world situation getting more painfull because of our last 8 years, would be enough to wish one were dead. We can't change any result on Nov. 5 so let us not take chances with our future. There is one candidate that gives hope and one that offers more incompetence....I for one will not take a landslide for granted....

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Inkan1969:

kkpollster:

If many more polls are predicting one result vs another, then it's more likely that the result predicted by many polls will be true then for all of them to be wrong while one poll gets it right. Your 2004 polls disagree on exact numbers, but nearly all of them agree on a 2-3% Bush win, which is what occured. The current situation of all polls but a couple predicting an ~5% Obama win as of now is analogous to all your 2004 polls predicting a 3% Bush win except for a few.

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John:

@kkpollster

That's somewhat misleading, Pew Research polled between the 9-14, while GWU polled between the 11-18. Between the 11-13 Gallup had McCain +1, Hotline Obama +2. Quinnipiac polled the 11-16, and CBS 12-16. This was the week after the republican convention where the lead (average) switched from about +2.5McCain on the 9th to + 2 to Obama by the 18th.

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kkpollster:

John: Actually Hotline had it plus 4 for Obama and plus 3 for Obama on 9-16 and 9-17.

During that same time BATTLEGROUND had it tied. Thus there is a 3-4 pts difference in results.

Inkani: If all the polls you cite were wrong last time, and some like Gallup has Mac up by 10pts with LV and the same day has O up by 4pts among registered voters, I think the one you need to call into question is the polls that were wrong last time by 3-4 percent which BTW would alter who wins this time. If they are off 3-4percent they are mis-weighing their sampling and if they readjusted it, it might be closer to GW BATTLEGROUND.

GBORO: yes the polls in my chart are from 2004 which showed the gross inaccuracy of Gallup, Marist, Quinnipac.

I mean guys and girl, a national pollster being off by 3-4%??!! That would mean if you sold your house for a million dollars they would have miscalculated your asking price by $400,000. We laymen and Laywoman, could predict this election being off 3-4% without dialing one household!!

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kkpollster:

correction to last post: a million dollar home would be off by 40 thousand not 400 thousand, if 4 percent off.

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kkpollster:

GBORO: The polls from my chart also were the final numbers of all the pollsters in 2004.

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RussTC3:

Heh. Check out this Battleground poll from 2004 taken at roughly the exact same time period as this one:

9/27-30, 2004
Bush 51
Kerry 44

As we all know, the final results on election day were Bush +2, not Bush +7. So, this poll's actual results likely lie more within the MoE, something like Obama +3 or +4.

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John:

@kkpollster:

Firstly your orginal post was using a 11th-13th time frame. Secondly the days polled by the tied GWU battleground poll were the 11th, the 14th, the 17th and the 18th. For the hotline poll released on the 9/16 or 9/17, that means they were in the field at the same time for only one day. Thirdly comparing any of these polls to the Pew Research poll which polled between 9th and the 14th is a mistake.

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kkpollster:

Russ TC3:

Russ you're citing the wrong Battleground. You're citing Battleground Celinda Lake, the democratic pollster. Battleground Terrance is the one that was one that was right on the money. So you're Obama theory is wrong, its the wrong poll. So given your theory its still MAC by 2.

John: I'll take your word, but the fact still remains, PEW and Battle even within the disparity of dates, showed similar numbers and patterns to one another, compared to the others which showed a lean to Obama.

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