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US: National Survey (CBS/Times 9/10-14)

Topics: National , poll

CBS News / New York Times
9/10-14/10; 990 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CBS: Congress, Obama, Full results; Times: story, full results)

National

Obama Job Approval
45% Approve, 47% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 41 / 51 (chart)

State of the Country
33% Right Direction, 60% Wrong Track (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
21% Approve, 70% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Likely voters: 40% Republican, 38% Democrat (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Sarah Palin: 21 / 46 (chart)

Party ID
35% Democrat, 25% Republican, 33% independent (chart)

 

Comments
BH:

Party ID says it all. That Rs are +2 despite the crazy breaks says even more.

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sjt22:

@ BH

What's wrong with the party ID?

And given that this poll was done Friday-Tuesday, what "crazy breaks" are you referring to? Assuming of course that anything that has happened recently would the theorized to cause a significant shift in a national poll.

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obamalover:

@BH

Dems always have a higher party ID. It's like that in every poll. How long have you been following this stuff?

Anyhow, it seems things are starting to tighten up. And all these teabaggers might drive independents to the Dems.

People may be upset with the Dems, but they are starting to realize the alternative is frightening.

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Rightward:

The fallacy in many of these generic ballots is the party breakdown. The assumption in this poll is that 35% of the voters in november will be democrat while just 25% will be repubs and the remainder indys. The voter enthusiasm stats as well as the fact that 3 million more republicans voted in the primaries compared to the dems just don't bear this out. My guess is that the november electorate will be 35% to 40% repubs, 30% dems and the remainder indys which will of course be devastating to the democrats. Just saw Sharron Angle on O'Reilly.....she comes across as a very credible candidate. If she holds her own in the debates vs Reid...she wins.

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BH:

"What's wrong with the party ID?"

2008 voter turnout was as follows:

D 39, R 32, I 29

That's the high water mark for Dems. and it certainly wasn't the +10 D that this poll shows.

2004 turnout, which is far more likely turnout model to expect for this year, was:

D 37, R 37, I 26.

Re-weight, do the math and you'll get significantly different result.

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tjampel:

Anything at all to take the focus off the Dems an Obama right now is good strategy. Getting people to focus on Boehner personally, his pep talks to bankers (don't let those Dem Congressional staffers take advantage of you),his A list lobbyist friends, his 45 paid golf vacations plus numerous corporate-funded resort stays, etc. He's as entrenched a politician as one can imagine, and enjoys all the perks. Repubs seem happy enough with him but do independent voters, disaffected Dems and TeaParty folk care? Maybe... I hope Boehner becomes the focus of a whole lot of attention over the next few weeks.

Oh...yes...FM...time for your list of "Supremely, Masterfully Venal" Dem politician..Rahm, Rangel, Dodd, Obama, of course, etc...

Thank you for sharing, FM

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BH:

"It's like that in every poll. How long have you been following this stuff?"

Most polls, yes, assume a Dem advantage because they're expecting 2006 and 2008 turnout, they shouldn't but they do. But most polls are not Ds +10, that's ridiculous given past turnouts.

I've been following and breaking down polls for more than 10 years and have worked alongside senior pollsters for presidential campaigns on both sides of the isle - I also know something about sampling, methodology and questionnaire design.

Anyway, see above for a better explanation as to where I'm coming from.

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tjampel:

BH:

Party ID says it all. That Rs are +2 despite the crazy breaks says even more.

I looked at the breakdown of the sample and agree that it sucks...for other reasons, however. (it's skewed Dem; take a look at, for example % of sample for various age groups...it's way off). The party ID is based on ALL ADULTS, not LVs or RVs, even. If you survey everyone including illegals and folks who don't bother to register the Dem ID tends to be higher.

The party ID of likely voters was NOT anything close to 1 D+10, I am sure; probably more like even.

Still, as I said, this survey is flawed in my book; too bad as I'd like to see more results like this amongst LVs. Need to wait for Gallup to switch over and see how that goes.

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BH:

Obamalover...using hate speech is never a good idea. I know you're passionate for Dems and have an axe to grind against Tea Party folks (for what it's worth, I'm no fan of them either), but that terminology simply doesn't belong in public discourse, as it is both ignorant and offensive.

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tjampel:

BH: The term was coined by the Tea Party peoplethemselves as has been written about by many including an ultraconservative writer, no less, in the National Review, a much esteemed rag by many of you folks. I posted his comments verbatim a few weeks about when Seg raised this same issue.

The original usage was "let's tea bag the Dems"
or "tea bag them"

So you see it was Tea Party people themselves, suggesting that they shove their testicles into the throats of Dems. Where was your outrage when that happened? OK...you can plead ignorance if you want...or...were you laughing to yourself at the time?

To tea bag is to commit the above act; since the act was suggested by Tea Party people it's appropriate to call them by that name (though I don't do it here as I don't wish to have my posts objected to because of one word I used.

SO, was it HATE SPEECH when it was first used by the Tea Party people? If so where were the pundits and "civilized folks" on the right when this was all going down? Probably laughing their collective heads off.

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BH:

"The term was coined by the Tea Party"

No it wasn't. And the NRO article you refer to wasn't celebrating the hateful rhetoric but was making a point about how offensive and hypocritical its use is. I'm not a Tea Party lover or a Conservative or a Republican. And hate speech doesn't belong in public discourse, even from liberals who think their alleged racial sensitives and piety gives them a free pass to use a term as offensive as racial epithets against the people they hate themselves.

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cmbat:

Who cares?

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melvin:

The American people is waking up,because they know if the GOP takes back control of anything would mean hardtimes for them in they're family.

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obamalover:

@BH

TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER TEABAGGER

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melvin:

This poll in the PPP poll tells the truth,because there is no way the GOP can be so far ahead with so many fewer voters....This party just cannot attract anybody accept White males in drunk Wh females

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BH:

obamalover, here's my last reply to you before you go on a self-imposed ignore:

Slurs are never offensive to the ignorant or the hateful. Peace.

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melvin:

Am still afraid the rightwing nuts are going to take to the streets if the GOP dont win back the House in Nov..Castle is reporting he got a few death threats last week.Crazy people those teapartiers.

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John:

@BH,

"That's the high water mark for Dems. and it certainly wasn't the +10 D that this poll shows."

That is among all adults, among RVs it's 36D, 29R 35I. It doesn't give the LV breakdown but looking at the crosstabs, with republican and democrat voters virtually mirroring each other, while the independents going to the republican by about a 10 point margin, the party-id for the LV is probably about +2-3D, may something like 34D, 32R and 33I (It might be a bit different due to rounding and if there are any non-party LVs).

Re-weighting to the 2004 exit poll, wouldn't make a huge difference, it would probably make the overall ballot something like 41.5R - 38.5D.

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Paleo:

Another generic, this time from the bipartisan Battleground poll, which has the race tied at 43.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42247.html

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MikeyA:

"Slurs are never offensive to the ignorant or the hateful. Peace."

BH, liberals can never be racist, ignorant, hateful, or offensive. Only voters in states that don't click the button next to the "D" are.

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Field Marshal:

They can also never be whack jobs either. Only people with R's after their names and the voters who support them are. I mean, they have to be whack jobs to support the GOP, correct? LOL.

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CompCon:

@tjampel:

The personal attacks on Boehner are a waste of time and will probably backfire if they continue. As soon as you start blasting Boehner because he might be the speaker of the house in the future, you open up the current speaker of the house to criticism and attacks. Do you want people talking about her demanding a bigger luxury jet to fly her around, or her having government jets take her family around the world on vacation, or the other corrupt things she does? It is a risky strategy to do anything that will bring up the name Pelosi.

Obama is desperate to make someone the enemy. His attempt with Boehner has already failed. Making Bush the enemy was used for too long and that has already reached the time it causes backlash when he still tries it.

What might actually minimize the democrat losses is if they would stop the vicious attacks. Their hatred level is firing up the opposition and demoralizing their base. Try sending Obama out to make a positive speech instead of his arrogant mocking hate filled attack speeches. It might help,

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Aaron_in_TX:

"What might actually minimize the democrat losses is if they would stop the vicious attacks."

People don't respond to niceties. They rarely ever have. They respond to fear, anxiety, resentment (especially resentment) or other times they respond to vague positive notions of hope or change, not on the merits of their own goodness but usually in response to whatever is going on at the moment they don't like.

Going out and saying "good times are just around the corner, keep your chin up" was the Herbert Hoover and George H.W. Bush strategy.

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CompCon:

@aaron: "Going out and saying "good times are just around the corner, keep your chin up" was the Herbert Hoover and George H.W. Bush strategy."

You mean like, "hope and change"?

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