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US: National Survey (Economist 7/10-13)

Topics: National , poll

Economist / YouGov
7/10-13/10; 1,000 adults
Mode: Internet
(youGov release)
Update: full poll available here

National

Obama Job Approval
48% Approve, 45% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 81 / 13 (chart)
Reps: 12 / 85 (chart)
Inds: 42 / 51 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
12% Approve, 65% Disapprove (chart)

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
Adults: 44% Democrat, 39% Republican
Registered voters (n=707): 46% Democrat, 42% Republican (chart)

State of the Country
29% Right Direction, 56% Wrong Track (chart)

 

Comments
iVote:

While this constitutes a +12 swing for Obama, it also demonstrates how volatile and sometimes inaccurate internet polls can be. YouGov seems to have come back to reality with this one.

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dpearl:

iVote: This does show a huge swing from the last Economist YouGov poll and does illustrate the volatility as you mention. However, I think the most likely interpretation is that this one is a bit of an outlier on the high side while the previous one was a bit of an outlier on the low side for Presidential approval.

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Field Marshal:

Actually, judging by the tracking history of this poll from the last couple of months, this weeks results looks like the outlier. He was between 42 and 45 for the last 5 of these polls. Next release in 2 weeks will confirm or deny the results this week.

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melvin:

Two big things happen today (1) The financial bill passed the Senate (2) The oil has stop flowing.The Mainstream Media is not giving the Obama administration any credit for passing a Wall street bill.This is the 1st time in this Country history a Financial bill has been signed into law,but the Media is trying to find a problem with the bill instead of giving the Democrats their due,this was a Historic day in the Senate today.When the Democrats passed the Health bill we got the same reaction from the Media, that's why the Health bill was not popular when it 1st got passed.The Media especially Fox News is down playing this Historic moment today,am beginning to believe the Mainstream Media don't want the Democrats to get any positive news before the Midterms.This Democratic Congress has done more then any Congress since the days of Lyndon Johnson, its time to give them their props! Shame on you Mainstream media

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melvin:

MSNBC is reporting big business is holding back on hiring 1000s of workers until after the Midterms.I knew Walmart was doing this,but now word has come out that more big Companies are going to do the samething.The Republican party is behind this you can bet on that,its so sad what the GOP will do to get back in power.The GOP has stop unemployment,they have filibuster the job bill,the GOP is trying to stop jobs from being created before the Midterms its that obvious.

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melvin:

Politico wonders: Why is our very successful President doing so badly? This was one of the headlines on politico today

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Farleftandproud:

This poll on the generic is sort of the liberal version of Rasmussen, but on Obama's approval it isn't.

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Farleftandproud:

I think it was a good thing that Obama's press secretary said Democrats could lose the house and senate. It is better to sometimes be safe than sorry. He said Scott Brown wouldn't win, and he did; I think he took some critisism for that, and maybe the fear of John Boehner being House Speaker is frightening, along with Barton from TX being chair of the energy committee. He'll try to bailout BP probably. The senate, is a scary thought, because having Sen. Inhofe in the environmental committee, would be as bad as Ted Bundy a counselor at a rape crisis ctr.

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tjampel:

Just a note for those who think the Gulf issues have miraculously gone away. They haven't

Firstly:

The oil spill is not yet over. They're still testing for leaks and the pressure is not as high as they'd like, which means they may not be able to keep the well shut down. In fact that's what Thad Allen said earlier today. They will probably open up the valve to let the oil flow again tomorrow and try to collect all of it, now that they have 4 ships in place capable of handling 80k barrels per day. In the event of bad weather they now at least have the option of shutting down the well during those 5-6 days where it's too rough to process the oil on the ships.

Secondly, even if the oil has been permanently stopped at the well, there are some 6 million barrels of it floating around or dispersed and hanging out at depth, creating havoc with the local ecology. And it will probably be that way in a good 1/3 of the gulf coast area for 3 years or so based on my reading of what marine biologists are saying.

Lastly, though you'd think it would go without saying, nothing that happened today in Congress or in the Gulf is being reported in this poll....duhhh

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Gtfan4ever:

Farleft-If you go back and read Nate Silvers post from April titled "Generic ballot points to 50 seat loss" you'll see that if the election were today the Democrats would lose the popular vote by 6.6 points thus resulting in around a 60 seat loss. The RCP average for the generic ballot is Republicans+3.2 and then Silver noted in his post that the generic ballot tends to overestimate Dems by 3.4 points so that's how you come to the 6.6 popular vote deficit the Dems would find themselves in today.

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tjampel:

I agree with Gtfan4ever on the seat loss were the elections held today. I'd like to say it's a good thing they won't be (you never know what the mood will be in November...can it get worse?)

With people feeling slightly better about the Gulf and Financial Reform passing I expect that, were the election held in a week or so that loss would be down in the 30s. Then again that bump will be temporary unless we start to hear some sustained good news on the economic front or something really positive in Afghanistan...good luck on that one.

The unemployment benefit numbers really dropped this week but...that's just one week. If they stay at this level or below for two months that will be a very good sign, though we need to get well below 400k to get good job growth. On the downside the economy has slowed down pretty markedly. Those who are getting all excited about the possibility of a double dip (which will lead to larger Republican gains) are probably cheering that news on.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"something really positive in Afghanistan...good luck on that one."

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Afghanistan will bring Obama down because his own supporters will turn against him on it.

If "change" didn't mean "get out of the wars" I don't know wtf change meant. Obama beat Hillary because of her 2002 war vote. Bush was unpopular in no small part because of Iraq (it was definitely the #1 reason for me). Now we have a new Iraq in Afg. except Afg. is much harder to control.

Of course no one listened to what Obama actually said. Instead, they thought liberal democrat = change from Bush policy. The people who actually wanted out of the wars were eliminated early.

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JMSTiger:

@ Aaron_in_TX

I agree with you about Obama the candidate and what he said about Iraq and Afghanistan. He never indicated during the 2008 campaign that he was going to take the U.S. out of there. He called Afghanistan "the war of necessity" while Iraq was a "war of choice". But, many of his supporters thought that once he became President, he would immediately end both wars. That, of course, is silly, but many Americans are silly themselves.

U.S. combat troops will be in Afghanistan for at least the next 3-4 years. We will probably have a presense there in some way or another for much longer than that. Obama has ramped up Afghanistan much like LBJ did in Vietnam. Let's see if he continues to escalate, or pulls a Nixon and tries to find a way out.

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