Articles and Analysis


US: National Survey (Fox 6/29-30)

Topics: National , poll

Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
6/29-30/10; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
340 Democrats, 5% margin of error
324 Republicans, 5.5% margin of error
176 independents, 7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox News: Immigration, Oil Spill, Obama)


Obama Job Approval
47% Approve, 45% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 84 / 10 (chart)
Reps: 14 / 78 (chart)
Inds: 40 / 48 (chart)
Oil Spill: 41 / 52
Afghanistan: 46 / 41

Congressional Job Approval
24% Approve, 66% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 52 / 44 (chart)
Stanley McChrystal: 25 / 17
David Petraeus: 47 / 8
Nancy Pelosi: 31 / 48
Eliot Spitzer: 10 / 38
Al Gore: 47 / 43
Elena Kagan: 24 / 17

Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose Arizona's new immigration

52% Favor, 27% Oppose

Do you think General McChrystal deserved to be fired from his post as the
top commander in Afghanistan, or not?

42% Yes, 36% No

Party ID
38% Democrat, 36% Republican, 20% independent (chart)


Field Marshal:

Man I hope Petraeus runs in 2012. I know he said no but i hope he decides to say screw you to Obama and knock him out of office.

By the way, I love AZ. Seems like most sane people do to. 2-1 favor the law. But i'm sure Obama will gain by suing the state and siding with foreign powers over his own state and citizens.


There's not much positive here if you're a Republican. With an unusually tiny edge in numbers (340-324 & 38-36%) in favor of Democrats, Obama comes out pretty good. Positive job approval and very positive favorables. And considering this is a Fox News poll, you can probably tip the MOE a few points further in favor of the Democrats and Obama.

I noticed that our resident right winger, the Field Marshall, was only willing to discuss the AZ poll in his post (other than a tidbit about a non-candidate like Gen. Petraeus).

As far as that goes, the current polling seems to be totally consistent with all polls going back decades relating to minorities of all types. Significantly, if you go back to polling about school busing, segregation, 'separate but equal,' equal rights for women, gay rights, etc. it is almost always true that a slim majority of Americans approve the status quo and oppose social change, and huge numbers -- 20-25% -- choose not to even give an opinion to the pollsters. Social change is never easy, nor is it ever approved by a majority of Americans.

I'm sure that in 1954, opinion surveys strongly disapproved the SCOTUS decision on Brown v. Board of Education. Today, however, I'm sure polling would show only single digit opposition to school integration, if that.

So the social change has to be done in the face of opposition of a 'status quo' majority, but when it is accomplished, it has succeeded in making our country great.


Field Marshal:


What in this poll is bad for republicans? They did no favorabilities of reps and Obama has a 2 point adv. within the MOE and one of the few polls showing him above water. However, he is below water on the issues polled plus it shows people favoring the AZ law which Obama has come out opposing and wants to sue the state to block. The left wing hacks on this board have said repeatedly that the AZ law will hurt them in November. Judging by this poll, it will help them.

So again, what is bad for the GOP?



What's bad in this poll for Republicans? Simple, it's a far right wing Fox News poll with unusually high GOP percentages, but it shows better Obama results than any other recent poll.

And as far as the AZ results go, xenophobia always shows up positive in US polling. That's an historic fact, so those results are totally irrelevant.

Sorry to burst your bubble.


Field Marshal:


Xenophobia? That's rich. You know what also always polls well? Enforcing our existing laws!

How is Fox News polling far-right? Opinion Dynamics does the polling, not Fox. Fox simply supplies the questions. Yes, they could push the questions one way or the other but they show them for everyone to see and it doesn't seem that way.

Its also a RV screen which means that a LV screen would show Opie under water. How is that good again? Oh right, any poll that shows him in a bad light is a bad poll with OBVIOUS bias.

Anyway, keep drinking the kool-aid. I'm sure it will all work out in November!


Your overconfidence about November just made my day.



Field Marshal:

NO there's nothing for Dems to crow about here. It shows a holding pattern since March. I suppose not showing the floor dropping out is a good thing for a party that's assumed to be drowning.

The last 7 polls from Fox have all show job approval in the 43-48 range and disapproval running from 43-48 as well. In fact if you add up all the spreads going back 7 polls to March 17th approval/disapproval is exactly even over that period (46/46 (rounded off from 45.867/45.867)).

Additionally, there hasn't been any trend over time. Obama was 46/48 on Mar 10, has been as much as 5 up, and has been down by 5 on one occasion. No trend is probably a good trend for Dems right now, given the the economy appears to be tanking again, far too many people are out of work, and there's still the oil...
Looking at the movement of this poll compared to the last one, only, support among independents is up (from 38/52 in early June), opposition among Republicans is down (from 11/82), and support among Dems is up (from 79/13). All very modest but, again, welcome for any Dem.

One other thing; the 38/36 for a Repub/Dem split may be right for LV sample but is probably high for RV, so the topline is pretty good, if you're a Dem. It was 41/34 for the last poll, which gave Obama a +1 result.

With regard to the questions on current events the responses of this more heavily Republican sample rated Obama higher on the oil spill, though he's still underwater on that one. I don't think he's done a good job on it, though I doubt any other person would look good dealing with this issue while oil continues to spill into the Gulf.

Given the history of this poll over the last 3 months this result probably just statistical noise. It would be like getting excited when Ras shows Obama at 49/50 OR 45/55 for a day or two. Now, show that (on Ras, that is) for a solid two week period---show the mean going to 42 or 49 and you have something to crow about.

In conclusion, if you're a Dem a poll like this is a short term relief from this particular polling firm(it's best to look long term). If you believe that Obama is falling into the great abyss this poll provides no support for that theory, though others have moved south. Being opportunistic liberals may tout these results and conservatives will push You Gov.

Your own trumpeting (and mine too) of certain polls that appear to support...or not..our favorite horses is as hollow as my above comments unless and until there's a clear trend, a clear indication of how things will end up in November. It's too early to know right now. In September, when Gallup and others start using likely voter screens, and the number of undecideds drop there will be more agreement between respected polls. Then we'll both be in a better position to "toot our own horns".



We're about to find out what happens when a president with approval in the 40's sends out an AG with an approval in the 30's to sue a state over a law that has support by voters in the 50's and 60's. Sounds like a formula for disaster to me.

Sometimes it appears like Obama wants the democrats to lose the house in November. There is no other explanation for him defending criminal behavior and starting a fight that only 30% of the voters will support.

A wimpy wishy-washy mean-mouthed arrogant elitist mocking president who declares that he won't enforce our laws is not what the democrats need right now.

People can blame the oil spill on his utter incompetance. But suing AZ can't be tagged to his complete inexperience and being unprepared to be president - it is an attack on our laws and constitution. People aren't going to look the other way on that.


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