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US: National Survey (Pew 7/22-26)


Pew Research Center
7/22-26/09; 1,596 adults, 3% margin of error
505 Democrats, 5% margin of error
373 Republicans, 6% margin of error
532 independents, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

(Pew: release, toplines)

National

Obama Approval
54% Approve, 34% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 85 / 8 (chart)
Reps: 19 / 72 (chart)
inds: 48 / 37 (chart)
Economy: 38 / 53 (chart)
Health care: 42 / 43 (chart)
Foreign Policy: 47 / 32 (chart)

State of the Country
28% Satisfied, 66% Dissatisfied (chart)

Party ID
34% Democrat 22% Republican, 37% independent (chart)

From what you've seen and heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court?

50% Should, 23% Should not

As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in Congress?

38% Favor, 44% Oppose

 

Comments
Stillow:

I think its all but set in stone now that there will be no g'ment run public option for health care. Opposition to it has been steadily growing and even Pew, the pollster the left loves is showing a majoirty do not like the bills currently in Congress that had the public option in it.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Actually, polls show that the public strongly supports the idea of a public option when they are asked about that provision specifically. The numbers come up negative when people are asked about such ambiguous notions as "the ideas being discussed in Congress." I oppose many of the ideas being discussed in Congress (for example, health co-ops, the taxation of health benefits, etc.). However, I also support a public option. Your extrapolation is contrary to more precise data.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

Also, not that you care or anything, but 44% isn't a majority.

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Stillow:

It is when only 38 favor............

Don't know which polls your looking at, but data I have seen includign the NY Times today shows people do not like the public option...there will not be a public option i nthe final bill.

The sneate compromise does not include a public option. I thin kthe internal polling of many of the members shows that will kill them if they pass a g'ment run option....

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notonegativity:

Marvelous, I think you are right on the money with your comment and Stillow is off base. I read every poll I can get my hands on related to health care and I see the same thing you are saying. The reaction to the question is based on how it is asked. For the ones that truly do oppose a "public option", I'm sure alot of those people are persuaded by the fear mongering taking place. I still see alot of support for a public option when it is presented as similar to the medicare program that is in place.

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Stillow:

I assure you you are mistaken. Politicians above everything else are self preservationists. Everything they do is a pathway to re-election. If a public option was popular they would be pushing it, but because it snot, they are avoiding it liek the plague...only the left wing of the democrat party wants the public option, everyone else does not.


That is why the compromising going on has excluded the public option. Congress does internal polling and outside liberal areas of the country a public option is not popular at all.

What you call fear mongering the rest of the country calls getting to the facts. The fringe left attacks are not working in this debate and that is why the far left will be very nhappy with the final product.

With Obama steadily losing support based on al lpolling, the far left may be forced to give up even more of what they want over the next couple of months.

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Andy (AKA: The Yangban):

People always like to have shinny new programs (high services) and always hate paying for them (low taxes). Of course, any proposal coming before Congress will have some of both, which is why support of a total bill will almost always be lower than support of some indivicual proposals. For example, I would love to have my mom's neighborhood connected to a nearby shopping center with a sidewalk but not if it will cost my mom several hundred dollars.

Assuming that oneone is being disingenuous, it is over simplistic to cherry-pick one part of a proposal and use it to justify the whole proposal.

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Stillow:

The public option is the cornerstone #1 goal of the left wing in health care reform.The very definition of liberalism is reliance on g'ment...so without a g'ment plan the left is goign o be quite upset....but if a g'ment plan is in the bill it angers the right and moderates.

This presents a structural problem for Obama which I think he miscalculated. i think he was pretty sure he could ram this thru quickly, but when the failed it sort of all came apart on him. All the compromising going on is excluding a g'ment plan...and I have been hearing all day the liberals in the house are pretty ticked off about that. But there simply isn't enough liberals to foce a g'ment plan into the bill.

So Obama from an approval aspect has a problem and that might be why his numbers seem to be declining every day a little. With the failure to push this thru quickly, he is now goign to anger either the far left base or he is goign to anger the middle and the right.

The liberals want the g'ment control over health care, everyone else does not. What I think will happen is a compromised bill will make tis way to Obama without a g'ment option in it, but ahve things like pre-existing condition reform, etc. It will essentially please the middle and the right leaners, but its going to anger the left wing. He will try and ease there displeasure by pointing to other aspects of the bill, which will work for some of the left, but not all.

This could very well lead to a protest vote this fall and next fall and the GOP winning seats. As it looks now they will probably win both VA and NJ fairly easily.

Politically Obama is betting by hte time 2012 rolls around liberal anger will have faded ove rhis failure to get a public plan passed lik it did with Clinton in 1996.

But I think due almost exclusively due to health care and some other smaller items like his moronic comments about the plice in Mass....its going to lock his approval for a while in at the high 40's. I don't think his approval will stabilize til it hits the high 40's and he will kidn of hang out there....barring major events that are not yet seenon the radar.

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IdahoMulato:

@Stillow
There's no way the progressive caucus is going to sign off or agree to a reform w/out a strong public option. The poll question asked specifically about the healthcare reform sbeing discussed at congress, a very vague question. I for instance will oppose the bill currently being dicussed by the senate finance cmte, which replaced the public option with co-op option. I think you keep repeating your neo-con talking points and catchphrases instead doing a thorough educated analysis of the poll question and the results therefrom. That's why I like a previous poll question, which specifically rephrased the poll question in many versions to delineate what the public wants.

The so-called blue dogs are not going to decide what everybody should agree on. I don't think we're going to allow the blue dogs to water-down the reforms. Anything short of a strong public options that have the elements of consumer protection will be unacceptable. I encouraged our salesman in chief to keep hammering these points until it becomes a reality. We should not allow the blue dogs and the neo-conservatives to take center stage in the debates. We should not allow false, shallow, dishonest, and distorted neo-cons catchphrases and talking-points stir people's emotions against the reforms.
I think we democrats should market the refoms more on the benefits side and not the cost side. These same arguments were made more than 75 years ago in respect of the medicare legislation until LBJ decided to use arm-twisting he's best known of. This is the time to use LBJ playbook to get this thing done.
I don't think the gubernatorial races in NJ and VA are wrapped up yet although the repubs have big leads. Everything is about the economy. That's why most governors have very low approval ratings. It's not totally their faults; there're many external forces or forces outside their control. Anything can happen from now until the votes are counted. We live to see!

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Stillow:

@IdahoMulato

You clearly do not pay attention to current events or watch any ews....or really follow politics outside your liberal state of mind.

Try and get this thru your head, there will be no public option. the moderates and conservatives do not want it....and there simply is not enough of you liberals to force it into the bill....Look at what is going on i nthe senate, the compromises are all talking about no public option. Is that magically going to change by the wave of your wand? No, its not....you are drinking left wing kool aid again.

This is the problem Obama has. He is either going to tick off moderates and conservatives or tick off his liberal base. The big tag line in the bill that was discussed in Congress is the public option, polling shows people do not want it...only the liberals and the really left wingers want it. But you guys are a miniority. Its not going to happen....and if you think it is your simply still living in your liberal fantasy land.

Liberals who can think for themselves, unlike you Idaho already know this, some on this site already admit a public option is all but lost. Obama had one chance and that was to ram this thru very quickly before anyone could read the bill and before what was in it got out to the people, he failed in doing that...and as people learn more and more about the bill and what it means, it is steadily losing support.

Everyone wants reform of the system, but only a miniority want a public option....other than liberals who are just sheep to the g'ment, no one else wants a public option because they know it will be disasterous in many ways...no way to pay for it, the eventual elimination of the private sector insuranc eindustry, etc.

The moderates and conservatives will not go laong with a public option. Liberals are simply to few out ther to get this done. Its going to be a compromised bill, with no public option...Obama will be forced to sign it to save some face...and as a result his approval will dip and stay in the 40's....becaue he will effectively have scared the conservative majoirty in the country and ticked off the liberal miniority i nthe country.

Idaho, I feel for you, you really don't understand how politics works. You give nothing but static liberal arguments for your positions with no basis. You hoping their is a public option won't make it so. All you need to do is look at what is going on in the house and senate, there is compromise going on and none of it is including a public option.

So as a mis guided liberal you are either going to have to be angry for Obama failing or be forced to settle for a watered down vversion of what you wanted.

Do a little more research before you comment, get a little more understanding of how things work....its ok to have differing opinions on an issue as long as there is some basis for it, but you just look very foolish posting your knee jerk replies about neo cons....your getting a bit to much air america and not enough real life.

Politicans want to be re-elected and the moderates like the blue dogs know if they pass a public option they will probably lose in 2010 since they are all in conservative leaning districts.

You cannot change hte rules of the game...there will be a reform bill, but it will not be what you think it will be. Your chance of that died a couple weeks ago when Obama couldn't ram this thru super quickly.

These blue dogs will get an earful from there voters when they go home for the break....there will be no public option....thankfully for that....! Moderates and conservatives know handing control of soemthing like that to g'ment would be the end of quality care.

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Wong:

@Stillow
A quick glance at the internals of the Pew poll show 4 out of 10 Dems either generally opposed or unsure of the health care reforms in Congress. No one believes that 40% of Dems are against health care reform. They oppose the reforms currently being conmsidered in Congress because they do not go far enough for a strong public option or for single payer. A perceptive analysis would have at least 3/4 of these favoring a sronger role for government in health care

You may choose to believe that a public option is dead with the arrogance that characterizes your beloved leader Boehner, who also predicts that health care reeform will be "shredded" over the August break.

However, a more careful analysis indicates that the numbers have bottomed out. Obama won with 53% of the vote and that number will act as a firewall against further erosion all other things being equal. The opposition has over played their hand with fearmongering and Obama has a knack for overcoming in the long game.

My bet is a strong public option with a ten vote majority in the house (give or take a few) and 51 votes under reconciliation in the Senate.

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Bigmike:

Libs.

Wake up and smell the coffee.

The public option, as it is now defined in the house version, is dead. We may end up with something sort of like a public option, but it will have to be something the private companies can compete with.

Nobody cares what the "progressive" caucus wants. They obviously don't have the votes to have things their way or this would be a done deal already.

Yes the blue dogs will have their say. Otherwise, nothing is going to pass. And BO and the congressional leadership cannot afford politically to pass nothing. Their credibility is on the line.

The 53% BO got in the election is not a firewall of any kind. It is a threshold. If BO's job approval falls below that, it means he is likely losing votes in his re-election bid. Not that that is important until we get a lot closer to 2012. It is just where he is at the moment.

Asking questions like "how much will this cost" is NOT fear mongering. It is reality and even sanity. The govt should not get a blank check. Conservatives feel the same about giving BO a blank check the way you libs would have felt about doing the same for Dubya.

Woops. He did spend like there was no limit on the credit card. Oh well, thats another thread.

Where do you guys draw the line? Health care is not now and never has been a right. Didn't they teach Maslow's hierarchy in lib school. Health care falls below things like food, shelter, clothes, etc. How can health care be the top priority when we still have hunger and homelessness?

Oh yeah. We have govt programs for those issues and they have spent Trillions of dollars and FAILED. Tell me why I should believe govt health care will turn out any better? You can't because it won't.

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Stillow:

@Wong

First, thank you....at least your a liberal with some actual basis for what your saying.

Secondly, your just wrong. You are making assumptions of why people are oppsoing the reforms...this is a disagreement between the ideaologies...I feel people are opposed to it, espeically a growing number of elderly because they fear a g'ment option because they know what that will do to the quality of care in this country....you feel the oppositte and that is fair enough.

Obama has no firewall, some polls have him below 50, others right at 50-52...some of the networks have him still up around 55, but its no secret the networks these days are arms of the democratic party. He will continue to trend downward til about 47-48 is my guess. He is losing support among Indy's....he cannot afford to lose them. Bush lost them in his second term, now they are beginning to turn on Obama...Indy's are very stubborn and go back and forth very easily.

Health care is directly loweirng his numbers...you Dems feel its because he cannot get the job done...I feel the oppositte, they are dropping because he supports things like a public option...and its pushing his numbers down. Both Rasmussen and Gallup today have him at new lows in there polling.

With no real way to pay for it and a very powerful opposition to a public option, it will not be in the final draft. You have to put your ideaology aside and just look at numbers. There just are not enough liberals to get it passed. In both the House and the Senate. There are to many blue senators in red states that know it would be the end of their career if they put health care under the control of g'ment. that is why all the talks and compromising does not contain a public option.

Obama himself knows the public option cannot pass thru congress, that is why he tried toram this thru before anyone read the actual bill. Obama is not stupid, he knew once the info got out at what is in it, it would lose popular support and moderate support in Congress, which it has.

There will be reforms passed, but no public option will be there...and as I said, that is where the problem for Obama comes in politically. With one issue he scared the majoirty of the country and has angered the minoirty. A similar thing happened to Clinton in 93 and in 94 the people put the GOp in charge of congress and from that point Clinton was pretty much controlled by congress sending him conservative legislation he was forced tosign. Welfare reform, etc, etc.

History repeats itself...and as usual you liberals have over reached....your trying all your typical attacks, calling the opposition fearmongers, etc...parading out victims of society, etc....its simply not working anymore. You need to update your playbook.

My ideaology drives many of my comments, but I am able to remove that and just look at how politics works and how the game is played...and liberals simply do not have the numbers to push a public option thru. It was Rahm who put up all those conservative dems in the first place to run....that kind of backfired on him....Obama knew full well if he didn't pass this by the break it would most likely fall apart and e would end up with something watered down. I give him credit, he almost got the vote he wanted, he just fell a bit short of ramming this thing thru......the public option is losing support and Obama is losing support....

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Bigmike:

More on those blue dogs.

How is BO going to twist Mike Ross' arm? BO only got 39% of the vote in Ross' cong. district. You want documentation. Try this.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161

Ross is AR4. There are lots of districts that send Dems to the house but went McCain in a big way.

I count 14 districts with Dem reps where BO got under 40% (The low is 2 districts where he got 32%). 24 where he got under 45%. And a whopping 49 districts with Dem reps where he got 49% or less.

Dems have a 257-178 margin in the house. Take away those 49 and that makes it 208-227. How many of them do you suppose are willing to fall on a sword to get this done? Bet you won't find many takers. And you need at least ten.

That is admittedly over simplifying. There may some Dem reps from districts BO carried who are on the blue dog side of things. And maybe some who are in the 49 are supporting this health care govt takeover.

So how many can BO convince that this is worth ending their careers over? I suppose he could offer them appointed jobs in return.

That just means those pesky conservative Dem Senators will get their way. How many Dem Senators are from red states? You know, they are Senators and very important. They won't give up their careers for anything less than a cabinet appointment or becoming a Supreme. Who should get fired to make room for them? Hillary? Should Sotomayor step aside to make a spot for Dorgan?

Gee, sometimes being Pres isn't as easy as it looks.

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IdahoMulato:

There will be a public option whether anybody likes it or not.

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