Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: Obama 45, McCain 43 (IBD-TIPP-10/6-12)

Topics: PHome

Investor's Business Daily /
TechnoMetrica Institute of Public Policy
10/6-12/08; 825 LV, 3.3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 45, McCain 43
(9/2-7: Obama 45, McCain 40)

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:
____________________

miatch:

What poll is this?

____________________

RussTC3:

New tracking poll.

I'm sorry, but there are just WAY too many undecided's here. Especially when they're using a LV poll.

____________________

muckinello:

@miatch:
This is boomshack fav poll of the day (that is, the one where McCain is not royally spanked!)

____________________

miatch:

Being both intellectually honest and consistent, I'm certain Boom will let us know that this is just an outlier.

Right, Boom?

____________________

chesirecat47:

TechnoMetrica Institute of Public Policy???

This race will swing to McCain by tomorrow;)

____________________

McShame:

This poll must be using an equal sample of democrats and republicans. Can someone explain how Obama is only up 2 when he leads amongst democrats 86-7 and Independents 39-37?

____________________

tjampel:

Based on the O/M split for Dems, Indies, and Repubs, this poll can't possibly have a Dem party ID advantage of more than 2.5-3%. With even Ras at 6.3 this is unwarranted. With similar party weightings to Ras the result would have been a 5%-6% lead for Obama.

Also, some other weird stuff the % of undecided AAs appears out of line with other polling of AAs, and the % of Hispanic voters for McCain is vastly out of line with all other surveys I've seen, which show an avg of around 65%/35%. If Hispanics are 10% of the voting population that alone may have siphoned off a couple of points. Lastly looks like they polled only about 75 union households, based on the Obama's huge lead with that demographic and the fact that non-union households show McCain up 1 point. (are unions such a tiny % of the voting population these days? They certainly behave like they're not).

____________________

political_junki:

Does anybody know where does Zogby publish its daily tracking of battle ground states?

____________________

common sense:

Dear folks why are you so obsessed with Boom ? He lives in NC and is panicked about the Tar Heel state turning blue. He has not been in his right mind since Jessie Helms passed away. I have asked Dean Smith and Michael Jordan to check on him late on election night.

____________________

IndependentThinker:

Usually I don't like trashing polls but this one is worth trashing cause how the hell they have 11% of AA undecided?

____________________

John:

At least to me, the reason why this poll shows a closer race than other polls, is that the ideology of the voters in their sample seems to be too conservatives, in fact the sample almost certainly has more conservatives than moderates. It has Obama winning the moderates by a 35 point margin. The moderates should make up about 45% of the electorate. Using either the 2004 or the 2006 exit polls for the electorate make-up, in terms of ideology, would easily shift this poll to a double figure lead.

So either the poll has been unlucky in the sample it has picked up, or perhaps there is something about the methodology (perhaps overweighting republicans or white voters), that has skewered the number of conservatives. Hopefully we will see in the next few days of this tracker.

____________________

common sense:

@ political junki
Are you really related to WFB ? Someone told me that you were. If so please confirm. I will take you at your word - though on this site that is more than an act of faith.

____________________

bmrKY:

"Dear folks why are you so obsessed with Boom ? He lives in NC and is panicked about the Tar Heel state turning blue. He has not been in his right mind since Jessie Helms passed away. I have asked Dean Smith and Michael Jordan to check on him late on election night."

LOL. I agree. We should all stop picking on poor ol' boom and Kip. They're too busy investigating their latest leads Ayers and ACORN (those leads being Hannity and Drudge, of course) to be bothered by us lowly elitist liberals. And besides, it must be pretty difficult for them to keep checking in at pollster only to see McShame/Failin' fall further in the polls on what seems to be a daily basis nowadays-- or even worse, seeing some of the polls begin to "settle" with Obama around 7 to 10 points ahead. At least they've still got Oklahoma poll numbers to look forward to! And Utah!

____________________

political_junki:

@common sense:
No. I am not related to him.

____________________

joydivision8:

A friend of my family is a psychic and I have never known her to be wrong about anything. She told me that she is certain that John McCain will win the election. I trust her more than the polls, but we'll see...

____________________

zoot:

This is the poll that Kudlow has been flogging at NRO; other conservative sites and posters have been cutting and pasting his puff piece all over the place. There's no validation for his claim that IBD/TIPP is "highly respected". Here's a comment on them going back to 2004 - POliPundit, where this appeared, is quite conservative:

"There is no evidence to indicate that TIPP follows AAPOR or NCPP guidelines. TIPP says they weight by the Census standards for demographics, and by static party allegiance. Their polls, however, do not release their demographics to the public.

TIPP takes their polling results, and molds them into “indices” on “Optimism” and “Leadership”. They do not ask the same questions as other polls, nor do they ask follow-up questions to identify the source of trends and support base, they do not make their results easily available (try to find the meat in their latest poll, and see if it doesn’t take you a while). They are at wide variance with the most established polls, but instead of addressing this problem and looking for the probable need for correction, IBD pretends they are just as accurate, and hopes you won’t notice that IBD has often been an outlier. "

They claim that they were the most accurate presidential poll at the end of the 2004 race. Their Presidential Leadership poll in August 2008 showed W at 42.8%, which sounds off the wall. However, I couldn't find any data about the polling criteria or demographics for that one.

____________________

sunnymi:

"The poll was conducted Oct. 6-12 among 825 likely voters."

Do they mean they called 825 voters in 7 days making it less then 120 voters a day :-)

____________________

boomshak:

WHAT BOOMSHAK FINDS VERY AMUSING:

When Newsweek puts out a poll that gives Democrats a 14 point sampling edge or ABC/Post uses a 10 point sampling edge and Obama gets a fat lead, all you moonbats find that completely acceptable and not to be questioned.

When someone else does a poll showing the race 4-6 points (which it is) you scream like a cat that just had its tail stepped on about bad samples and biased polling.

It's just amusing.

CONCLUSION:
There are three types of polls right now:

1) Those that give Democrats a massive 10+ point sampling advantage and show Obama 10+.
2) Those that gice democrats a 6 point sampling advantage (like Rasmussen) and end up Obama +4 to 6.
3) Those like Gallup, who don't give us any idea what the weightings area and fall all we know, could be jacking them around daily as the mood hits them.

It should be noted that some of the polls which do not state their weightings are also some of the most wildly erratic of polls.

BOTTOM LINE:
Obama is ahead 4-6 nationally and within the MOE in most battleground states. The race is very close 3 weeks out. Obama should be killing here because McCain has run the worst campaign in modern memory. His campagn manager should be banned from any further campaigning for life. The last thing they did well was hiding the Sarah Palin decision from the press until the last minute. They also win the "Sh*t Tossing Monkey Award" for the worst, most disjointed and incomprehensible ad campaign e'va.

Yet, it's still close.

____________________

boomshak:

@bmrKY:

Dear folks why are you so obsessed with Boom ?

I find this amusing as well.

- Boomshak

____________________

boomshak:

EXERCISE IN HONESTY FOR THE MOONBATS:

It is clear that the predominance of souls in this Forum or Disciples of Obama. That's cool. However, no candidate is "perfect" and even the most ardent follower has "something" about their candidate they don't like or concerns them. (And I don't mean things like "he isn't hard enough on the evil Republicans!".)

HONESTY CHECK:
So let's see if you moonbats can be honest. Everyone tell me ONE THING about Obama that you don't like or that concerns you.

If you can't think of anything, perhaps you should seek professional help and consider that your adoration of The One is not rational.

____________________

boomshak:

@bmrKY:

Dear folks why are you so obsessed with Boom ?

You know, it just occured to me that many of the whackos in here actually think about me when they are not here, so great is their venom towards me.

Wow, I can't wait until the next biased poll comes out so I can give Boomshak a hard time!

I, on the other hand, never think about you guys at all. You are just like a cloud of buzzing gnats to me.

____________________

s.b.:

Is it 45-40 or 45-43? Come on Mark.

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

Is not this your favorite pollster? Didn't you say that Ras' will the man until election day? :-)

____________________

ThatMarvelousApe:

Everyone tell me ONE THING about Obama that you don't like or that concerns you.

He is a little too moderate. I'd prefer a more progressive slate of social and economic policies, but given his intellect and character, I can live with the compromise.

____________________

carl29:

Boomshak,

what happened to Ras, zogby, gallup? We already know that at least Zogby is on your "trash-the-pollster-list" for the day, after having been praised yesterday. Let's see if "uncle" Ras goes down the same path today.

____________________

DTM:

A couple things:

(1) Obama tends to be more protectionist on trade issues than I would be; and

(2) Obama supports civil unions for gay couples but thinks states should be allowed to decide on the issue of gay marriage. I personally think states shouldn't be discriminating in any fashion when it comes to gay versus straight couples, so I would suggest instead that states should have one category of civil unions for both gay and straight couples, and the issue of "marriage" should instead be left to nongovernmental entities (e.g., churches, families, and friends).

____________________

zoot:

"Everyone tell me ONE THING about Obama that you don't like or that concerns you."

Sometimes he suffers from analysis paralysis and over-thinks a problem, then his resolution tends to split the difference rather than making a clear up or down choice. That's fine in some circumstances where political moderation requires incremental shifts, not so fine where he's muffing tough decisions that don't present a middle ground.

Do I get a gold star for my forehead?

____________________

fromfaraway:

From the tables that IBD-TIPP provide, you can solve matrix equations to get the following (from section "party"):

Democrats=35.5
Republicans=32.1
Independents/Other=33.1

And (from section "ideology"),

Conservative=43.9
Moderate=47.5
Liberal=9.5

These numbers don't sum to 100 % due to rounding effects in the original numbers. (These rounding effects are amplified.) Also, it is assumed that everybody answered those questions.

____________________

KipTin:

Why are you obsessing about me... bmrKY?
FYI: I have NEVER watched Fox News or Hannity, nor do I visit the Drudge Report. Maybe my watching CNN is too right-wing for you.

And as I have stated several times, I have voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate all my life (except not this year). Therefore, I do not have difficulty looking at the polls. If I voted for a candidate, because he was ahead in the polls, then I would have voted Republican most years.

____________________

KipTin:

Regarding the IBD poll... This is Day ONE of a new tracking poll (i.e. baseline). The internals correlate well with the other polls even though the weighting may not be to your liking. What is most important is to pay attention to the actual tracking.

It in fact, can act as the offset for the Daily Kos poll, which is at the other end of the spectrum of "likely" voter polling.

____________________

fromfaraway:

If you change the conservative/moderate/liberal ratio to be the same as in CNN's 2004 presidential exit poll (34/45/21), you get from the IBD/TIPP numbers:

Obama=50.8
McCain=36.6
Unsure=12.8

So there you go.

____________________

huetdebd:

@BOOMSHAK

here's boomshak. of course YOU would be blogging on the outlier poll the looks better for him. still down buddy. and sense you like educating everyone so much. please tell me how mccain can become president when obama is up in FL, NC, VA, W.VA, OH, MO, CO? obama only needs one of those to win. mccain MUST get them ALL.

____________________

KipTin:

FYI: This is NOT an outlier poll any more than Daily Kos is an outlier poll. Get your statistical facts straight.

FYI: This is the FIRST day of this tracking poll and attacking anyone for posting here because of poll bias is IRRELEVANT.

____________________

thoughtful:

@kiptin

This poll was compiled over 7 days. how many respomdents are they going to have tomorrow and how many are going to be dropped off from when 7 days ago?

It can not be anything else but an oddity as the other trackers are all measuring the same 3 days!

____________________

KipTin:

Compiling data over seven days does NOT make a poll an outlier. Please wait until there are a few more IBD tracking polls and maybe some of your questions will be answered.

____________________

KipTin:

BTW-- GWU Battleground does not poll Fridays and Saturdays... ergo not always same three days.

____________________

saywhat90:

does anyone honestly believe that party id dem to rep is only 3.4%. come one lets be real here.i dont believe that no more than i believ it 14 percent in other polls

____________________

this poll is ridiculous-- 23% of hispanics are undecided-- while Obama has 40% of the white votes and 70% of the other vote the lead is 45-42--anyway that is a joke of the poll--but their sample reflects all the the things the other polls are saying.

____________________

dtw:

these numbers are wrong. look at the regionals.

obama mccain
northeast 51 33
midwest 45 41
south 40 51
west 47 44

doing a straight average, assuming all sample sizes were perfectly equal, obama would lead 45.75 to 42.25

but the sample sizes should NOT be equal. the populations of the NE and the west dwarf the south and midwest. so those samples should be larger or more heavily weighted. do that, and you will likely get the same results as the other polls.

for whatever reason, there are too many southern voters in this sample. they can't be "more likely" to vote than anyone else. IBD made a mistake.

dan tynan

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR