9/11-15/08; 1,046 RV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 45, McCain 45, Nader 2, Barr 1
(9/9: McCain 46, Obama 45, Nader 1, Barr 1)
McCain bounce has officially been reversed
Posted on September 17, 2008 2:37 PM
This one may be even, but candidate enthusiasm for McCain has dropped from last week, whereas Obama's support remains the same.
McCain Voters "definately" from 77 to 71
Obama Voters 80 to 60
McCain voters were also more likely than obama voters to report that the could change their mind (12 (M) vs. 7 (0)).
A lot happened over the time period collected here-- would love to see daily number.. or contrast 9/11-12 vs. 9/14-15 -- most of the daily tracking shows a shift away from mccain and to obama over this time period, and i wonder if the long field time (5 days) is hiding any shift..
Posted on September 17, 2008 2:38 PM
oops.. i mean Obama Voters 80 to 80
Posted on September 17, 2008 2:41 PM
I just got my DNC contribution request letter and bumper sticker. I wrote McCain-Palin 08 on it sent it back in the postage paid envelope. At least I can get like 30 cents back from the DNC.
Posted on September 17, 2008 2:46 PM
Well, like we even needed any more confirmation - the race is officially even and the momentum is on Obama's side.
Posted on September 17, 2008 2:50 PM
McCain should have bucked his party and picked Tom RIdge! Palin is like a blessing and a curse. She drives his poll numbers up! But she has too much negative things goin on! Plus they have already played the sexist card and the media bias card. Now McCain has to hope Obama screws up the debate! If not, than this election can easily become a landslide. The ground game of Obama should not be underestimated! I am independent! I have no dog in this hunt!
No cross tabs so its impossible to comment on the validity of this poll -- if it's like many others, it's oversampled women and under-30 voters, maning it's overstated Obama's support.
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:00 PM
@ straight talk:
Obama will not fumble in the debates. He will win those easily. He's a natural. Objectively speaking, listening to McCain talk is agony. He's slow and boring.
I agree, McCain should have been a real Maverick by telling the base to screw off and picked the Minnesota or Connecticut governor. Preferably the later if he really felt the need to use the gender issue. They would helped McCain win by taking Democratic EVs. Obama should have picked the Arizona governor, because it would have been smart (and interesting to watch).
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:01 PM
Palin is looking more and more -- like every VP choice in history -- as net 0% gain for her candidate. The polls will return to where they were after the VP picks. On top of that, this economy is looking pretty bad, and McCain's claim to being the "reformer" is looking more and more tenuous.
Score is: dead even; advantage Obama. And, we are moving into the 15-20 day period after the last gavel of the last convention, wherein no presidential candidate in history has won if not ahead in the polls. The next week will determine it all.
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:28 PM
You worte... wherein no presidential candidate in history has won if not ahead in the polls. The next week will determine it all.
where do you get your utter balldedash from??
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:45 PM
For those of you crowing about the McCain bounce being reversed, let me remind you of something.
Before the Republican convention, Obama lead McCain by 8 points. 6 points of that still remain.
So rather than McCain's bounce being "erased", it is still tremendous at 6 points.
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:55 PM
If the McCain bounce is gone and the race is tied, McCain picked up on obama.
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:56 PM
Let me say it again, before McCain picked Palin, Obama was AHEAD BY 8! This is still a huge convention bounce for McCain!
Don't forget, Palin gets a nice big fat juicy interview with Sean Hannity tonight. I expect her to shine.
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:57 PM
odd, both penn and w.v hve a 3.6 difference between Obama and McCain, yet w.v. is yellow, and penn. is light blue
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:58 PM
oh, and montana is yellow, will a smaller difference than penn.
Posted on September 17, 2008 3:59 PM
Because...so many non-partisans watch Sean Hannity, right?
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:01 PM
Bottom line, unless Obama ahead by at least 5 by gallup and rasmussed a week before the election, he will lose.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:02 PM
"Obama’s teleprompter looked particularly out of place in Colorado as he addressed a crowd in a bull ring (yes, bull ring) yesterday in Pueblo, CO."
Here's the big question.
If we are in full financial meltdown by election day, will America trust a complete neophyte with no accomplishments in 10 years of Congress to run the show?
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:04 PM
This is how they determine if a state is red, blue or yellow.
Where do the numbers come from?
When you hold the mouse pointer over a state, you see a display of the latest "trend estimate" numbers from our charts of all available public polls for that race. The numbers for each candidate correspond to the most recent trend estimate -- that is the end point of the trend line that we draw for each candidate. If you click the state on the map, you will be taken to the page on Pollster.com that displays the chart and table of polls results for that race.
In most cases, the numbers are not an "average" but rather regression based trendlines. The specific methodology depends on the number of polls available.
If we have at least 8 public polls, we fit a trend line to the dots represented by each poll using a "Loess" iterative locally weighted least squares regression.
If we have between 4 and 7 polls, we fit a linear regression trend line (a straight line) to best fit the points.
If we have 3 polls or fewer, we calculate a simple average of the available surveys.
You can find the reference here: /faq/map_faq.html
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:09 PM
Yes, I still have not figured out Pollster's trend line determination:
RCP has Montana lean GOP and PA as toss-up.
538 has Montana lean GOP (90%) and PA as lean Democrat (70%).
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:11 PM
boomshak, what is your deal man? you clearly love the sound of your voice more than anybody else does. we got it after the 100th time you posted it... you're sure mccain is going to win. fine, spin everything you need to spin in order to feel that way. at this point who are you trying to convince, us or yourself? you're coming accross as very desperate.
ah, thanks much Mark!
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:14 PM
No, I just love being right over and over again :)
BTW, Intrade is dead even tied right now, 49.5 a piece - lol, those brave people on Intrade!
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:17 PM
Hillary Clinton's #1 Supporter just endorsed McCain. Sweet!
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:18 PM
Check out recent CNN battleground poll. FL tied up at 48% each. OH Obama 49, McCain 47. NC Obama 47, McCain 48.
Wow... if these numbers hold up with other pollsters.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:20 PM
According to RealClearpolitics, Obama only had a 1.2% lead over McCain prior to the conventions. Where did you get that Obama was up by 8?
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:21 PM
the new cnu virginia poll is a joke +9 for mcsame complete outlier
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:22 PM
On Gallup. +6 on Rasmussen.
I pay little attention to the RCP Average as they include many "suspect" polls.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:23 PM
boomshak, thats fair enough, i wont tread on your fantasy, but you are aware that you are spinning.
for example, your statement that mccains bounce is still amazing becaue obama was up by 8, conveniently left out that obama being up by that much was HIS convention bounce. pre convention numbers were fairly similar to what they are right now, obama with a slight advantage. nice try though
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:24 PM
Was that before both conventions?
BTW, RCP Average smooths out any sharp swings since it keeps all polls up for a week I think.
But Gallup was +8 and Rasmussen +6 for Obama. Now Gallup is +2 and Rasmussen is -1.
Still big fat bounce for McCain.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:25 PM
Doesn't matter what it was before both conventions. What matters was that Obama surged 6 points from his convention and McCain surged 13 points from his.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:27 PM
Note that the CNN poll us "registered" (not likely) voters which favors Democrats.
WI Obama 50/McCain 47
IN McCain 51/Obama 45
NC McCain 48/Obama 47
OH Obama 49/McCain 47
FL Tied 48/48
The sampling error is 3.5 percentage points in Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina and 3 percentage points in Ohio and Wisconsin.
All statistical ties except Indiana.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:28 PM
"Still big fat bounce for McCain"
The only fat in the McCain campaign is between his ears!
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:30 PM
I disagree. Because the conventions were back to back, Obama's bounce was cut short by the immediate attention to the RNC. McCain/Palin have had 2 weeks in the spotlight. Unfortunately, it seems as though they are losing all the momentum they gained from the RNC.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:33 PM
Something tells me that if a person went through the trouble of registering to vote they will most likely vote this year. This is the election of a lifetime. Showing the world that a black man can be President, who had a Muslim father, will repair much of the damage Bush has caused with his moral relativity.
So now we can all agree that Foxnews/Rassmussen polls are doctored, to keep the excitement in the republican campaign up!
Regarding convention bounce... several analysts determined that it was a +7 differential in favor of McCain.
NO...not "doctored". Please get a clue or at least basic education in statistics.
CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp poll is REGISTERED voters, which favors Democrats because there are so many more registered Democrats.
Rasmussen daily poll is LIKELY voters which uses polling data (6 weeks) to weight political ID.
Both are legitimate, but one must be cognizant of the difference between REGISTERED and LIKELY.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:39 PM
So are you saying that McCain has lost 7 points since his convention? Since Obama and McCain are basically tied at the moment. That would only stand to reason.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:44 PM
thats ridiculous even their own polls have jumped dramatically from week to week ..very volatile. what is more, they adjusted their party id weighting to favor Dems only by 5%- this after a poll during the convention bounce.. that is ridiculous!
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:46 PM
A logical place to fight all the bulls---
we've seen from McCain (or was it a
"If we are in full financial meltdown by election day, will America trust a complete neophyte with no accomplishments in 10 years of Congress to run the show?"
OR turn the country over to someone who says he doesn't know much about the economy and proves he understands himself every day. I'm far more comfortable with my choice.
504 bills as sponsor or cosponsor in the US Senate is not nothing. Joining with Sen Coburn and Sen Lugar to Get 2 major bills passed (ethics/nuclear nonproliferation) is not nothing. Joining with Sen McCain on Global Warming is not nothing (maybe you oppose Global Warming bills, dunno). His record as a state legislator in Ill is very good; a lot of important state legislation pushed through. Many others have posted it. Check it out sometime.
Besides....what meltdown? The fundamentals of our economy are GOOD! Prosperity is right around the corner! A chicken in every pot :-)
@ Boom & Kiptn
we are back to where were or Obama has improved his position. I personally think McCain?Palin are in deeptrouble and the plane is stalling in flight.
Obama >Kerry States + IA + VA
You might point at MI & WI (6 pm EST Ras); PA
or even WA.
This a battle of the West and Mid West and Virginia is firming up
But then there is NM + CO + NV in the Obama line as well. Then of Course on the latest polls and for economic and cultural reasons Ohio and Florida are in play.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:47 PM
So... sherman... what is your expectation of voter turnout? Do you really think this year will be much different than other years just because one guy is African-American?
The highest voter turnout (since 1960) was in 1960 with Kennedy vs. Nixon at 63.1%.
1972 McGovern vs. Nixon (First year 18 yr. olds could vote in presidential election/Vietnam War & draft) = 55.2%
1992 Clinton, Bush, Perot contest = 55.1%.
2000 Gore vs. Bush = 51.3%
2004 Kerry vs. Bush = 55.3%
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:49 PM
McCain and Palin are in deep trouble? Hilarious. Look at CNN Florida tied where Obama has outspent McCain 10 to 1. And that CNN poll is a "good" poll for Obama.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:54 PM
Hey... change... do you understand the concept of a "daily tracking poll?" Of course they move around as they often respond to specific events.
Posted on September 17, 2008 4:59 PM
Everybody has been watching Palin...but they all watched the OJ car chase too.
She has used up every tidbit in her thin bio in one speech.
Will she just keep giving that speech over and over? I wonder if that will get old.
Posted on September 17, 2008 6:46 PM
CBS poll just came out, Obama up by 5, when u add Nader/Barr, he's up by 6. Dems were polled 7% more than Repubs. This is great news!
Posted on September 17, 2008 8:02 PM
Posted on September 17, 2008 8:06 PM
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