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US: Obama 47, McCain 41 (Hotline 10/06-08)

Topics: PHome

Diageo/Hotline
10/06-08,08; 852 LV 3.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 47, McCain 41

 

Comments
Hope Reborn:

They must have had one really odd day of polling, now back to "normal" territory...

Can't wait to see once the 2nd bad day drops and 2 days post debate are added...

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carl29:

Yesterday,

Obama 45% McCain 41%

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Inkan1969:

Diageo Hotline was never very credible. It wasn't credible a few weeks back when it reported a wide Obama margin in the middle of McCain's convention bounce. It's not very credible now, with its wide swings. Obama supporters shouldn't have talked up this poll during the McCain bounce, boomshak should not have deified this poll this week because of its small Obama lead, which has now been obliterated, today anyway.

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dissolutionman:

So much for your 2-point race, eh boom?

Yeah, Obama's lead is looking pretty static.

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mysticlaker:

It's just a bad poll...No doubt. Stupid to change things mid-week. Stupid to not be more transparent about the internals.

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Isher:

carl29, yesterday was 45-44

Good god, from 45-44 to this? Shows that the 5th was an outlier and today was very good for Obama, if I'm not mistaken (or it's internals).

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Wow! These polls are all over the place! If you need a campaign laugh then check these out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JL48-J1YAeE&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gy_D3iUbe0&feature=related

Enjoy!

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d3nnisbest:

Hello? Boomshak? Hello? (crickets)

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carl29:

Inkan1969,

I totally agree with you: Boomshak legitimazes pollsters whenever he likes the numbers, and later on, when the numbers change, he trashes them relentlessly. Boomshak was for them, before he was against them :-)!!!!

*Polls have to be taken with a grain of salt guys. Don't get all "worked-up" if you don't like them or all excited if you like them. It's better to wait until Monday, when I guess many polls will be out with a better picture of where we stand.

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IndependentThinker:

this pollster is a joke

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Atomique:

They changed their party ID back to something more reasonable. Today's "jump" is just an artifact of that.

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pbcrunch:

I agree, this pollster is laughable; I have no idea how they're weighting anything but it's pretty apparent the answer is "not very well" if they can show such huge swings over just a day.

Still find it weird that McCain had such a good night on Tuesday (pre-debate). Oh well...

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NW Patrick:

RCP announced they will "no longer include" PPP polls. :) OF COURSE!:) LOL

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Viperlord:

Remember, according to boom, this has turned into a outlier. If Gallup tightens a little it will suddenly be deified again.

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political_junki:

Virginia Obama +8
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Also It seems PA is more pro Obama now that McShame is there. The thought of him as president probably will move many undecideds towards Obama

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scjmcy2k:

New PP in VA has O up by 8

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IndependentThinker:

@Atomique

I don't think they've changed their party ID
check that out

yesterday one
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100808.htm

Today one
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100908.htm

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Thatcher:

@NW Patrick -

Starting October 11 RCP says they will no longer include any "partisan" polling data (PPP-D, Democracy Corps-D, Strategic Vision-R).

However - RCP better get off their ass and post the new PPP Virginia data that has been available for the past hour! That will move VA to lean Obama on their site and RCP will have to show a projected electoral college victory even before adding in toss-up states.

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jamesia:

RCP Averages:

2 days ago - Obama +5.6%
Yesterday - Obama +5.1%
Today - Obama +5.6%

All movement has been within MOE.

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carl29:

No wonder why RCP doesn't like PPP anymore :-)

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1magine:

Diageo can be ignored, along with Zogby and the battleground. They are just unreliable- Ididn't buy them when the had BO way up, way down or now at the norm, quite frankly even a broken clock is right 2X a day.

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KipTin:

You guys/gals need to quit making ignorant remarks that a poll is not credible. And no way was yesterday's Hotline poll an "outlier." Look at MOE (sampling error) and that pretty well explains everything.

And carl29... It is hypocritical to pick on Boomshak for the very same thing that Inkan1969 did today in saying that "Diageo Hotline was never very credible." Again... sampling error.

You are a bunch of statistical Luddites!!! In other words, those who are opposed to "statistical" change.

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BarackO'Clinton:

LOL

"the race is tightening"

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boomshak:

Hotline: Most-Volatile-Tracking-Poll-In-The-History-Of-Earth

I've never seen a tracking poll that makes 5 and 6 point swings regularly as this one does.

Nevertheless, most polls shows Obama now with significantly less than 50% support. In other words, people still have doubts.

For good reason.

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Kiera_Lynn:

How can so many "likely" voters be undecided less than four weeks from the election? That's what strikes me as really odd about this poll.

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boomshak:

@KipTin:

"You are a bunch of statistical Luddites!!!"

You said Luddite! :)

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boomshak:

Main Entry: Ludd·ite
Pronunciation: \ˈlə-ˌdīt\
Function: noun
Etymology: perhaps from Ned Ludd, 18th century Leicestershire workman who destroyed a knitting frame
Date: 1811
: one of a group of early 19th century English workmen destroying laborsaving machinery as a protest ; broadly : one who is opposed to especially technological change

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Mike A.:

ok boomshak...sometimes you have a valid argument but rarely. You can't praise the hotline poll one day and then discount it the next and expect to be taken seriously...I despise double-standards....

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Vokoban:

"Nevertheless, most polls shows Obama now with significantly less than 50% support. In other words, people still have doubts."

Nevertheless, most polls show McCain still with significantly less than 45% support. In other words: a loser!

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carl29:

I can make fun of anyone who behaves like a fool. Clowns make me life, period. Don't want me to make fun of you? Be more prudent with your "opinions" about the subjects. Praising a poll one day, when the numbers favor your candidate, and trashing the same poll the next day, when the numbers don't favor your candidate, is plain "erratic" and "crazy."

TipKin: Don't worry, I know that you are suffering those mood swing typical of women of certain age. No country for old women, ask Sarah!!!

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NW Patrick:

Boom shouldn't you be out campaigning for Grandpa?

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alphamale:

hello
let me do a little math here

let assume
264-(21*2) = 222 for BO/JM at 55 to 45 %
163-(21*2) = 121 for BO/JM at 45 to 55 %
bg = 111-16 = 95 at 50 /50 %
for BO = 122.1 + 54.4 + 47.5 = 224
JM = 99.9 + 66.6 + 47.5 = 214
-- > (224-214)/438*100 = > 2 %
any comment

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lhtk:

I predict that today's Gallup tracking will have Obama down to an 8-point edge. Eek, it's tightening!! Of course, in the midst of the obvious surge for Obama over the last three weeks or so, I believe Gallup had Obama down to only a four-point edge for two straight days early last week. Whatever.

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Isher:

Yeah, I disagree w/ boomshak about issues but he's not doing anything differently from what other people are, he's just hopeful about his side's chance of winning.

I think Sunday's numbers (and Monday's numbers)in most polls were particularly bad for Obama as that was the day you could register the fresh brush w/ Ayers material. Wednesday's numbers are good for him because he looks presidential in debates and doesn't throw out gang signs or speak in ebonics like half the undecideds expect him to.


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douglasfactors:

Does Hotline weight by party ID or not?

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Thatcher:

RCP just moved VIRGINIA to LEAN OBAMA - 277 EVS!

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mysticlaker:

Yes boom, and McCain can't break the 41% ceiling either according to your logic looking at this one poll...

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I am very disturbed that any drop in Obama's numbers may be due to MsShame and Barbie's racist rants. Here is a link to MoveOn which will make sure that America does not sit back and tolerate this kind of hatred and raciscm. Even a few dollars sent will be a good investment.

https://pol.moveon.org/donate/donate.html

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NW Patrick:

Wow. The OCTOBER SURPRISE IS HERE!

Barack Obama spent $3.3 million in TV advertising on Monday. At that rate the Democrat will spend more than $90 million on ads through Election Day - more than all the money Republican rival John McCain has to spend on his entire fall campaign.

Ok I'm not surprised:)

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rami:

Yes but NRA just endorsed mccain. This will boost mccain's stand among NRA members who were about to vote Obama (about 30 of them nationwide) ^^

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Jacob S:

PPP has Obama up by eight in VA and polling at 51 percent (RCP). Even if his lead is three or four points, Obama looks poised to be the first Democrat to win VA since LBJ(?).

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KipTin:

There you go again... carl29. Trying to personally insult me because I called you on your hypocrisy. Making nonfactual stereotypical statements based on my support for women candidates. Your hatred for older women is very ironic, in that you will some day be one yourself. With your attitude you will probably be one of those spiteful old witches that no one wants to be around.

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

Are you saying Obama is buying the election since he raised more money?

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NW Patrick:

Stillow I am telling anyone who thinks television advertising doesn't work to FEAR this dollar advantage if you like McCain. This was their strategy all along. It's a bombardment. AND I LOVE IT.

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boomshak:

Economist: O+3

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mirrorball:

so here's the change

"Among the 66% of voters who say the economy is their #1 issue, Obama has a 13-pt advantage. And he holds a 6-pt. lead - 44-38% - on the question of who'd do the best job handling the economy. In yesterday's poll, the two were tied on this question."

They didn't change the party ID at all. Both today and yesterday: 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

weird poll

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

I just find it somewhat ironic that the party who seems to get irked by big money and the influence it has.....seems to love it when it suits there own needs. TV ads do work on a small percentge of people who may not actually read the news and just pick up the soundbite and think its factual....

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KipTin:

So how is Obama's fundraising going? He came up $34 million short in August based on $100 million/month goal.

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carl29:

KipTin,

I am only being "sympathetic" and "compassionated" with you. I know how women of certain age feel emotionally. Hey...I have a mother. So, don't worry I won't take personal any of your "opinions" about me. It's all about your "phase" in life :-) Remember not to get all "worked-up." The hotflashes will be worst. Good luck!!

*I know that there is a good tea for women in your case. I'll look for the name next time.

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boomshak:

FIND THE OUTLIER:

Rasmussen Tracking 10/06 - 10/08 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/06 - 10/08 852 LV 47 41 Obama +6
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/06 - 10/08 1203 LV 48 44 Obama +4
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/05 - 10/08 800 LV 48 45 Obama +3
Economist Obama +3
Gallup Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 2747 RV 52 41 Obama +11

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KipTin:

Stillow is right on the effectiveness of TV ads. After a certain point, it is a waste of money, and in some cases starts having the opposite effect of turning people off with too too much.

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boomshak:

@mirrorball:
so here's the change

"Among the 66% of voters who say the economy is their #1 issue, Obama has a 13-pt advantage. And he holds a 6-pt. lead - 44-38% - on the question of who'd do the best job handling the economy. In yesterday's poll, the two were tied on this question."

And when asking those same supporters of Barack on the economy to describe Obama's Economic Plan they were supporting, no one had any idea.

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Timdicator:

MI, IN, NC and FL polls to come from Ras today.

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makersmark:

I wonder if CNN/NYTIMES or any major media will put VA, or FL in Obama's color anytime soon

seems strange they haven't

I guess they like to keep the illusion of a "tight race"

better for ratings

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Vokoban:

Boom forgot the Zogby poll: +10

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Stillow:

@boomshak

That's because not even Obama understands his plan. He has so many different answers on each issue its difficult to keep track of what it is he actually wants to do....

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NW Patrick:

Can you imagine McCain with control of the Nuclear option?

Report: McCain Exploded With Rage During Gambling Outing
October 9, 2008 10:23 AM

Michael Kinsley relays a disturbing story about John McCain from Jeff Dearth, former publisher of the New Republic, when Dearth and McCain attended a magazine industry conference at a casino hotel in Puerto Rico in 2005:

McCain's game is craps. So is Jeff Dearth's. Jeff was at the table when McCain showed up and happily made room for him. Apparently there is some kind of rule or tradition in craps that everyone's hands are supposed to be above the table when the dice are about to be thrown. McCain--"very likely distracted by one of the many people who approached him that evening," Jeff says charitably--apparently was violating this rule. A small middle-aged woman at the table, apparently a "regular," reached out and pulled McCain's arm away. I'll let Jeff take over the story:

"McCain immediately turned to the woman and said between clenched teeth: 'DON'T TOUCH ME.' The woman started to explain...McCain interrupted her: 'DON'T TOUCH ME,' he repeated viciously. The woman again tried to explain. 'DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM? DO YOU KNOW WHO YOU'RE TALKING TO?' McCain continued, his voice rising and his hands now raised in the 'bring it on' position. He was red-faced. By this time all the action at the table had stopped. I was completely shocked. McCain had totally lost it, and in the space of about ten seconds. 'Sir, you must be courteous to the other players at the table,' the pit boss said to McCain. "DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM? ASK ANYBODY AROUND HERE WHO I AM."

This being Puerto Rico, the pit boss might not have known McCain. But the senator continued in full fury--"DO YOU KNOW WHO YOU'RE TALKING TO? DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM?"--and crisis was avoided only when Jeff offered to change places and stand between McCain and the woman who had touched his arm.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

The RNC is now spending more cash per day than the McCain campaign. He's running on fumes. Obama is outspending McCain and the RNC put together. That's why McCain has gone back on his word to run a clean campaign. He has to make these outlandish claims everyday just so he can continue to get some air time.

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NW Patrick:

The RAS Florida #'s will be very interesting today!

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muckinello:

Quick, boom.. jump on the economist poll!

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KipTin:

I do not know about "outlier" because Gallup is polling REGISTERED voters and not LIKELY voters. Registered voters favor Democrats because there are so many more registered Democrats, but when it is likely those numbers drop.

The poll that is very difficult to accept as LIKELY voters is Daily Kos which more closely tracks Gallup's registered voters.

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:


I was just in Seattle again on vacation....what is up with the fairy system up there? It cost me $17 each way to get my rental car across the damn water......

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muckinello:

There you have it: RCP painted VA BLUE!

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@NW Patrick

McCain is erratic and shows poor judgement in a time of crisis. He is quite scary. Yet, when I consider that he is 72 years old, and has a history of cancer, the thought of Palin getting control of the Presidency stops me in my tracks.

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boomshak:

@Vokoban:

"Boom forgot the Zogby poll: +10"

Huh, Reuters/Zogby is +4.

You mean the DailyKos Poll? Sorry, I dont take anyone who has only a 26% Republican Sample seriously.

Also, even DailyKos has been Obama +8 last two days in daily polling.


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boomshak:

What amazes me is that the ONLY POLL the MSM is announcing is Gallup.

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DecaturMark:
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Vokoban:

Right, Kos, not Zogby. Beg your pardon. Still you missed it - and there's some flaw to be found in any poll. So why miss out one specifically?

Looks like cherry picking.

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Observer:

As I recall (correct me if I am wrong) boomshak posted the other day that McCain had relatively good days on Gallop on Sat and Sun following a very good friday for Obama. The expectation was that after Monday replaced Friday there would be a gain for McCain on Gallop on Tuesday. However there was another gain for Obama.

It seems to me that a very good Friday for Obama was replaced by an even better Monday. Today Wednesday replaces Sunday. Unless this is a better day for McCain than the relatively good Sunday then Gallop will show the same or an even larger lead for Obama today.

It is only when Monday drops out that any sort of dramatic move to McCain is likely, i.e. tomorrow and then only if Thursday's figures are not another very good day for Obama.

An illustration I think of why trackers sometimes go off on a journey of their own for a while before reverting to the mean. One really good/bad day for either candidate can skew results for 3/4 days.

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BOOMFAIL:

Let it be noted to the right wingnuts out there that socialism happened under BUSH.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081009/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_paulson

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ThatMarvelousApe:

The traditional media focuses on Gallup because Gallup is the traditional polling company and has a lot of media contacts. The same was true back when McCain was doing better in Gallup.

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maddiekat:

The Economist / You Gov Poll was pre-debate (5th & 6th )

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mysticlaker:

Hi Kiptin! Look, it's me! Your crying to mommy didn't get me kicked off the site. Did she cheer you up by getting you a fruit roll-up?

Here is something to chew on from Virginia:

----------------------
As it is everywhere concern about the economy is driving gains for Obama. 63% of Virginians list it as their biggest issue, and among those voters he has a 59-36 lead. Independents have moved toward Obama in droves. Where three weeks ago McCain led 51-34 with them, Obama has flipped that to a 49-37 advantage in his direction.

The same gains in popularity for Joe Biden and drops for Sarah Palin that PPP has found everywhere else apply in Virginia as well. Immediately after the GOP convention Palin had a 42/40 favorability rating, which has now dropped to 37/46. Biden is up from 38/27 to 43/26.
---------------------------------

And Boom, Obama was +12 yesterday in R2000/DK poll...Not that I would say it matters because there is a lot of numbers out there. Instead of picking polls you like, just look at the RCP and Pollster averages. Obama is up somewhere between +5 and +7 nationally....No change in the last week. If Obama goes into Nov 4th with a 2-3% lead, we are looking at a 300 EV night for him. Over 4% all bets are off and it could hit 370...Chew on that guys!

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MNLatteLiberal:

Kip, perhaps you ought to consider sending in a few bucks to Obama to ease your concern, which is, of course, very touching in and of itself.

Regarding your latest comments to carl29, I'd characterize that as more of an ad hominem attack than nit pik ing per se. all imho, of course, but you ought to spend more time picking nits than in pecking fits.

Carry on

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Evolve:

As too the debate to weather add money has any effect, this is the only link I could find relating to it. It does appear that spendind does have some effect.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/

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carl29:

MNLatteLiberal, Hola!!! You know poor KinTip. She is one lady of certain age who is pretty obssesed with the idea of a WOMAN president. Ella estaba con Hillary, pero 200%, y ahora odia a Obama con todo el corazon por haber "arruinado" el sueño de ver a Hillary, una mujer, presidente. Es una mujer mayor, vieja, que se comporta como una niña malcriada. Nothing to do, my friend :-)

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douglasfactors:

IndependentThinker:

I'm not so sure. The party ID breakdown has remained constant the last two days, as you point out, but we've seen some wild fluctuations before.

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IndependentThinker:

@boomshak

there's one thing that's very fishy in the economist poll's sample : There are as many democrats as independents
D : 347
I : 341
R : 282
and McCain wins independents by +10

While I don't think Obama's nationwide lead is as high as +11 as Gallup suggests I doubt his lead is only +3 why : because according to state polls taken at the same period as this nationwide poll he leads by an average of +4 in FL,CO, OH, double digit in PA and VA

One question for u : Do u really think there are as many democrats as independents in this country?

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makersmark:

Does anyone know why Pollster wont post the VA PPP results of today?

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Stillow:

I think Carl just left happy hour at his local pub...

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Vokoban:

A lot of republicans might be ashamed to disclose their party affiliation these days. So when asked they claim to be independent.

That would explain the number of independents in this poll - AND why they went for McCain, where every other poll shows independents going mostly to Obama.

Just a theory though.

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carl29:

Stillow,

I'm just strarting Stillow :-)!!!

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faithhopelove:

McCain is 0 for 6 in national polls released today.

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javakah:

Looks like the national numbers are closing in some, which isn't too surprising since Obama had probably been polling at the upper bounds of what could be expected.

This is obviously good news for McCain, since it increases his chances of winning, however with conceding Michigan, he still only has a few roads to victory.

This is not necessarily bad news for Dems though. If Obama continued to poll at such high numbers, there may be a sense that enough other people will vote to elect Obama, so you don't need to bother to vote.

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mysticlaker:

makers,

Mark said in his morning updates that the site will be slow in updates today because of yum kippur...

g'mar chatimah tovah

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boomshak:

IS GALLUP EMBARRASED?

If I were a major pollster and my numbers were 6 points higher than the RCP Average, I might find that a little embarassing and change my sample.

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boomshak:

@IndependentThinker:

Who knows, this is about a 3-5 point race. gallup has lost his mind.

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NW Patrick:

Did anyone see the article how Obama's presidential transition team is in FULL SWING. McCain's? NOTHING. They know.

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

No but I saw the article this morning showing more names that ACORN registered here in las vegas...

Mickey Mouse
Red Rooster
Pink Floyd
Elvis Preseley
Goona Gettem

All Dems.........

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NW Patrick:

Boom had Rasmussen lost his mind when Obama was up 8? You are a funny little man.

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

Rasmussen just reported that Obama's lead in MN has plummeted to +7.

Rasmussen 10/07 - 10/07 500 LV 52 45 Obama +7
Minn. Pub. Radio 10/03 - 10/05 418 LV 54 40 Obama +14
Star Tribune 09/30 - 10/02 1084 LV 55 37 Obama +18

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NW Patrick:

Stillow I wonder if Mickey Mouse would be allowed to vote AT the polling station? Fool.

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Commander_King:

Boom that number is only down by 1 from Rasmussen's last Minnesota report. You are so desperate.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak and what was his lead per the last time Rasmussen polled MN?:) I love how you compare OTHER pollsters higher #'s. 7 is SIGNIFICANT. That's a LANDSLIDE #.

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

If tens of thousands of dead people can vote, why not Mickey Mouse? The Dems win the dead vote every time, now they will win the toon vote.....so who is the fool? ACORN for registering fake voters....or the Dem who will let them vote at the polling place?

How is McCain going to win when Mickey Mouse has thrown his support to Obama...my kids will be very upset.

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NW Patrick:

Desperate is the key word for BoomWindBag.

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jamesugw:

Boomshak -
you tedious little fool. Rasmussen announced no such thing - rather, they note Obama has maintained a 'modest lead'. In the same way McStunt and Palin twist information out of all context and sense, so too do their supporters obviously...

____________________

Viperlord:

Gallup was perfectly credible when it was showing a close race according to boomspin, but he won't tell you that,

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laguna_b:

@NW Patrick

"Did anyone see the article how Obama's presidential transition team is in FULL SWING. McCain's? NOTHING. They know."

Presidential transition team.....seems snif sniff like wedding preparations ....how sweet!

But your assumptions are incorrect....the reason McCain's is not in full swing is that there is no reason to have one if nothing really changes....just 4 more Bush years anyway so why waste money on the facade?

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NW Patrick:

Boom did you see McCain now LOSING Missouri per RAS? WOW! WOW! WOW! Did you see McCain losing FL per RAS? WOW! WOW! WOW! Did you see McCain now losing VA per RAS? WOW! WOW! WOW!

:)

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Just got done watching the Obama Ohio rally, and I must say, Obama really looks like a president.

No comparison to McShame.
How 'bout him, Heh! Heh! Heh!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu_fHWTofcs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfsAHxnODkw

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

NW Patrick:

Crap! Sorry Boom. Left some out. Did you see Rasmussen announcing McCain now LOSING NEVADA? WOW! WOW! WOW! Did you see McCain down 6 per RAS in COLORADO? WOW! WOW! WOW!

Did you see a DOUBLE DIGIT lead per Rasmussen in PA?

Do #'s mean anything to you? Your candidate is getting KILLED.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

@NW Patrick
Intrade shows the same. Obama at 364!

____________________

jenn:

Dear Obama,


We're self-pay on dental care for our kids. Are you going to fine us for it?

Are you going to deny people the right to defend themselves and their homes by taking away ammunition for guns?

Are you going to deny medical care for the babies of "botched abortions"? Sorry, once they're born, they have the same rights as you and me.

Are you going to tell people- Don't make more than $250,000, we'll take away half your income or more. Forget about the American dream.

Most liberal person by far to run for the presidency.


Yours truly,

conservative "troll" for the people of America

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Jenn thanks for the talking points. Did you ask your party why they are socialist with the largest deficit in the history of mankind, a worthless war, raping of the constitution, and socialized bank bail outs? You are sad. Did you ask your party why abortions do NOT decrease when they are in office? Do you ask your party why it is so difficult to understand that pregnancies would decrease if you'd learn about the modern invention...the CONDOM.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Isn't jenn the one moving to Alaska?

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Commander_King:

Jenn...I mean Boomshak. Enough

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laguna_b:

@Jenn

I guess the answer to your distortion of Obama reality is NO! Across the board!

If MaCain wins prepare your children and grand children to spend thier lives in the military defending our "rights" to fossil fuel energy as it goes to zero. We won't be able to afford heath care but then it isn't important if we are always on the verge of nuclear annihilation is it?

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Batony:

ARG:

MC BO
MN 46% 47% 1% 6%
MO 49% 46% 1% 4%
MT 50% 45% - 5%
NH* 43% 52% 1% 4%
OH 45% 48% 1% 6%
TX 57% 38% 1% 5%
WV 42% 50% 3% 5%

Obama winning by 8 in WV, McCain trailing by 1 in MN. Anybody want to a shot at this?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Jenn what's sad about your abortion comment is Obama is the 1st REALISTIC President regarding abortion. He said "We will never agree on abortion, but there are MANY points we CAN agree in. Like how to decrease their #'s."
Your party is all talk NEVER taking a stance to decrease their #'s with education and protection. Welcome to the 21st century. BTW - A MAJORITY of Americans are PRO CHOICE. Get used to it.

____________________

Stillow:

McCain supporters ar just lame...how can anyone not support Obama? Come on guys, how can you not support a guy who says he loves America.....just because he sat in an anti-american church for 20 years? Just cus he pals around with a domestic terrorist? Just cus he worked for highly ethical companies like ACORN? Just cus he support killing babies born alive? Just cus he want sto give 95% of us tax cuts, when only 70% of us pay them? Just cus he wants to sit down and talk to insane people from Iran? just cus he supported subprime loans? Just cus he has strong ties with execs at Fannie? just cus he cannot make up his mind?
You McCain people are soemthing else......none of those are valid reasons....

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

You are making a big mistake at comparing oranges with apples. If you want to follow a trend compare pollster X with pollster X, pollster Y with pollster Y. To see where the winds are blowing, compare Rasmusssen's previous MN poll with this most recent poll. Compare Minnesota Radio previous poll with their most recent poll. Every pollster have a different wait and a different "leaning," especially Rasmussen who keeps close track of it.

So,

the previous Rasmussen poll:

Rasmussen 09/18 - 09/18 500 LV
Obama 52 McCain 44 Obama +8

The most recent Rasmussen Poll:

Rasmussen 10/07 - 10/07 500 LV
Obama 52 McCain 45 Obama +7
===========================================

Minnesota Radio previous poll:

Minn. Pub. Radio 08/07 - 08/17 763 LV
Obama 48 McCain 38 Obama +10


Minn. Pub. Radio most recent poll:

Minn. Pub. Radio 10/03 - 10/05 418 LV
Obama 54 McCain 40 Obama +14

========================================

CNN/Time previous poll:

CNN/Time 08/31 - 09/02 742 RV
Obama 53 McCain 41 Obama +12

CNN/Time most recent poll:

CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 849 LV
Obama 54 McCain 43 Obama +11

Don't mix want pollster with other. Compare pollster X's previous numbers with pollster X's current numbers, so you can see where the trend is going. Man...don't you get tired to make a full of yourself? :-)

____________________

Viperlord:

Wow. That's a lot of conservative BS. And not a word of it true.

____________________

Ryguy:

kip tin, please explain how what he said is hypocracy? when the poll was only +1 for obama he said the poll cant be trusted, and when the poll shows a huge boost in favor of his candidate, he says the poll cant be trusted. that seems like consistancy to me. boom on the other hand, has to keep switching from poll to poll to see which one suits him that day.

boom, RCP average of a 5.6 lead, with obama averaging 49.1... not so very far from 50% as you stated.

____________________

laguna_b:

The 538 projection graph shows a thin layer of red slime next to a blue rocky mountian range....pretty telling isn't it?

____________________

NW Patrick:

These trolls are so desperate LOL And as far as ARG those are amazing #'s. I don't believe them. Up 1 in MN yet the last 5 polls show huge leads? Up in WV? Doubtful. This pollster is trash.

____________________

jenn:

"raping of the constitution"- Obama will throw the old one out and write his own.

Condoms and birth control are great if people decide to use them. If you don't, you have the responsibility of a child. I know- I had an unexpected pregnancy.

"socialized bank bail outs"- at least John McCain is trying to help people stay in their homes by buying up the bad loans. Didn't hear anything from Obama.

____________________

Trosen:

jenn:
"Dear Obama,


"We're self-pay on dental care for our kids. Are you going to fine us for it?"

Dental insurance does not equal medical insurance. 2 totally different things. Massive, gargantuan FAIL, jenn.

"Are you going to deny people the right to defend themselves and their homes by taking away ammunition for guns?"

No, he won't, despite today's NRA endorsement. (what a shocker)

"Are you going to deny medical care for the babies of "botched abortions"? Sorry, once they're born, they have the same rights as you and me."

I only wish you'd take that last line and preach it to your fellow conservatives. As for the former, no idea what you're talking about, but it sounds like idiotic right-wing spewdom.


"Are you going to tell people- Don't make more than $250,000, we'll take away half your income or more. Forget about the American dream."

No one's that stupid jenn. Don't pretend to be for our sake. Rolling back tax cuts to Reagan-era levels will not take 50% of anyone's money. Not to mention, the vast majority of Americans will never make anything close to 250K a year, so I don't think your angle is going to earn a lot of sympathy.


"Most liberal person by far to run for the presidency."

And you conservatives are still under the fallacy that a) Consistently voting against Bush = "liberal" and b) that outside the Neil Boortz/Michelle Malkin Fox News realm that the "L" word is somehow repugnant to most Americans.

____________________

Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

I still wanna answer to my question about that wack fairy system up there....I love your town, but ya guys gotta do soemthign with the fairies.....build a damn bridge!

____________________

laguna_b:

@batony

I am no statistician but WV for Obama, only in my best wet dreams.....

____________________

NW Patrick:

jenn maybe McCain could give up 10 of his 11 homes for people that have lost theirs? Any thoughts? I like the plan!

____________________

carl29:

ARG previous numbers, from the month of Sept.:

MN:
before it was, Obama 48% McCain 47%

NH:
before it was, McCain 48, Obama 45%

I'm really skeptical of this pollster, though. Obama up in WV? I don't know what to say, other than I DOUBT IT. We already knew that Obama was not trailing as bad as we thought he would, but ahead is just an exaggeration :-)

Take this polls with a GIGANTIC grain of salt, folks!!!!


____________________

Commander_King:

Hey I live in West Virginia and we're trying to do what we can for Obama.In my family alone there is 11 votes for Obama.

____________________

laguna_b:

@Stillow

"

I still wanna answer to my question about that wack fairy system up there....I love your town, but ya guys gotta do soemthign with the fairies.....build a damn bridge!"

At first I thought you were being homophobic then I realized ....you meant FERRIES....LOL

____________________

thoughtful:

@Stillow

Missed you lover girl, site has too!

Sgt Jerry Wright is a Marine War Hero - a real American - that's why McCain wont attack him. The man has served his country.

Is McCain going to attack the Annenbergs?

Your Sarah needs your help she has seriously broken the "do no harm" rule with moderates and independents.

____________________

Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

Maybe Obama can convince his buddy Raines to give up some of that 90 million he made and buy people some homes.....to make up for tanking the entire system...

____________________

NW Patrick:

Stillow there are literally HUNDREDS of Islands West of Seattle. Many are remote with estates on them. We don't believe in bridges to no where. Many on these areas are VERY rich and they take the Ferry into Seattle and Redmond daily. They can afford it. Who cares? What's your point?

____________________

Dittoz:

Just wondering. I'm in TN. About as uncompetitive of a state as you can get this year for various reasons. I believe the primary reason behind this is that TN is one of the very few states that the "Obama is a secret muslim terrorist" thing took hold. We even had scumbag democrats spewing the same thing. See: Tennessee Democratic Party Executive Committee member Fred Hobbs and so called Democratic Congressman Lincoln Davis.

But my question is, why is Obama now all of a sudden pouring tv ads into this market? They seem to have just started over the past couple of days? I know he has the money to do it, but wouldn't those funds be better used elsewhere? We don't even have a competitive senate race for him to help here.

Best I can figure, he is just trying to run up the score as far as the popular vote goes.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Yah I'm a gay homophobe!:)

____________________

Stillow:

@laguna_b:

LOL, i didnt even catch that.....heheeh, thats funny.

____________________

socalerdoc:

ahh Nov 4. The day these rt wing lunatics feel the pain. Can't wait!

____________________

Viperlord:

Obama has no association whatsoever with Raines. He's not on the campaign.

____________________

Viperlord:

Obama has no association whatsoever with Raines. He's not on the campaign. Have you considered asking McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis to do the same? Maybe ask all the 27 lobbyists on his campaign staff to donate something?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Dittoz where in TN are you? It could be a national ad buy but if you are in the SE corner of the state do you pick up GA or NC TV markets?

____________________

Viperlord:

Have you considered asking Rick Davis and the rest of the many lobbyists on the McCain campaign staff to do the same?

____________________

Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

My point is I come to Seattle for vacation, giving your economy my money...we stayed in Paulsbow and it cost me $17 each way to get to Seattle.....build a bridge.......$17, thats insane man! Politics aside, thats to damn high!

____________________

Batony:

If Obama wins VA it will be truly amazing. First you have the McCain campaign headquartered in VA. And right down the street from my job is NRA Headquarters and they are powerful in this state. Then you have the military in the Norfolk-Va Beach area. Then in the SW you have Liberty Univ(Jerry Falwell) and the whole Christian Right...Obama will have to absolutely demolish McCain in Northern Va.

____________________

adocarbog:

West Virginia may be in play

ARG today
Obama 50
McCain 42

I know it's ARG but still

____________________

makersmark:

that west virginia ARG poll showing Obama ahead by 8 points is insane to me


It must be an outlier

a BIG outlier

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

Ya spent a couple weeks in Seattle and an Alaskan cruise.....if ya ever take a cruise, take the alaskan cruise, it was awesome...

I see you all survived though without my right wing rantings....

____________________

Dittoz:

@NW Patrick

I'm in Nashville. This market reaches into central southern KY. We've been bombarded with KY Senate ads for both sides. That must be an expensive race if you're having to buy ads in Nashville. I don't believe this market stretches down to Huntsville AL but I could be wrong.

And the ads are pretty much running on the local channels where I haven't noticed them previously. During the local news typically. Afternoons and evenings.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

Ya spent a couple weeks in Seattle and an Alaskan cruise.....if ya ever take a cruise, take the alaskan cruise, it was awesome...

I see you all survived though without my right wing rantings....

____________________

laguna_b:

@NW Patrick

I really need to see these Islands sometime...I see them in Sunset all the time but never gotten out of Seattle proper. They sound very idyllic...except when it snows (I am a true californian)

____________________

riverrun:

Anybody checked the internals on Research2000 tracker? McCain net 'favorable' has gone from -5% yesterday to -8% today. That's quite a jump for one day in a 3-day tracker. If this is a response to his debate performance, then the next 2 days will be worth watching.

____________________

thoughtful:


Pennsylvania Strategic Vision (R) Obama 54, McCain 40 Obama +14

Why is McCain/Palin in PA?

Best to ignore ARG, but WV is very much in play as those people really do know that if you put lipstick on a pig, its still a pig.

____________________

Viperlord:

I think Obama has a very good shot here in VA. Mark Warner stomping Jim Gilmore into the ground certainly helps, and he's put a lot of effort into the state, and McCain hasn't. He's been doing a fine job of addressing the concerns people here have.

____________________

Thatcher:

Gallup Tracking remains the same from yesterday O52 - M41

____________________

jenn:

Trosen-


Income tax cuts for middle class people will be nullified by other tax increases. The taxes on the "rich" will cause inflation and job cuts. Companies will really have to ship jobs overseas because of the extra tax burden.


Portland guy- maybe the pro-choice stance is the majority in your part of the country- not so elsewhere.

Obama has voted against medical care for the babies of "botched" abortions in Illinois. Not something the likes of "NBC Nightly News" or similar types will report of course.


We're down but not out my friends.

____________________

Commander_King:

WV is in play. I live here...I know. He has a Campaign office right down the road from me..they're working hard and he has recently increased ad buys here.

____________________

Viperlord:

And the last Democrat VA voted for was Lyndon Johnson.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Gallup...52-41 still.

I really think Obama has a ceiling at 53, and McCain at 45...The question is what's the different at election day. My guess Obama +4 nationally.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Ladies and Joe Six Packs, I present to you the Gallup daily with Obama ahead + 11
You Bethca!

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@boomshak

McCain's recent goofy idea regarding the purchase of bad mortgages at face value is going to sink him completely in Ohio and Florida. It's over. Start thinking about how to operate as the loyal opposition over the next four years.

____________________

Viperlord:

*Sigh* Are links invisible or something?

____________________

mysticlaker:

Oh, Boomshak? Quick question.

Is this statistical tie from gallup we were waiting for?

____________________

Stillow:

If Obama wins WV I will personally buy you all a one way $17 ticket on Patricks overpriced "ferry" system.

____________________

laguna_b:

Gallup +11..... :(

I was hoping for +13 by now.....ok, I will take what I can....

+11

____________________

NW Patrick:

Jenn it's not ABOUT my part of the country. 60% of the US electorate is PRO CHOICE. There are many variations - Partial birth, rape, etc. but PRO CHOICE. EDUCATE.

____________________

Viperlord:

I rather doubt he's winning WV as well, outlier IMO.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Stillow where are you from? I actually have an AK cruise booked with family next Sept. Should be fun, cold, but fun!

____________________

carl29:

First, I DO NOT buy that Obama is up in WV. Nonetheless, most polls, out of the very few from the state, has shown Obama doing better than anyone of us could have imagined, I mean..after the primary against Hillary :-(. Although I don't think that Obama will even bother trying that state, it bolds well for him in the rural areas of the neighboring VA. Let's say that Obama trails McCain for around 15% in WV, which is a microcosm of rural VA, if Obama keeps those same margins in rural VA, he could really compensate with the Northern part of the state, "communist country," as McCain's brother called it.

____________________

Ryguy:

obama may not win VA, but the fact that hes making mccain chase him around that state, and other bush states, means mccain cant really take hold of the electorate. hes always going to be playing catch up

____________________

laguna_b:

@Stillow

It will be my pleasure to ride it!

____________________

Commander_King:

I am not saying Obama will win WV but McCain has not put it away like he should be. McCain will likely win the less populated rural areas but we have several large cities..(Charleston,Morgantown,Huntington etc) where Obama could do very well.

____________________

Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

You guys will love that cruise, we had a blast...and not to cold. I'm in southern nevada...vegas.....

____________________

Viperlord:

Conservatives: We don't want to regulate anything! Uh, except women's bodies. And except when our deregulation takes Wall Street into the gutter. And we want to regulate the First and Fourth Amendments out of existence, but that doesn't matter!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Great point about WV. Even more respectable pollsters have shown Obama down just single digits there. This could be an indicator why obama is up big in VA, winning the rural areas.

____________________

Pat:

Gallup today: Obama's lead remains at 11

This is significant. Obama ususally does not do well in Gallup mid-week. For him to keep this level of support it means that not only the recent McShame smears had not worked, Obama must have polled very well after the debate.

____________________

decided:

ARG results:
McCan't Obama Other Undecided
MN 46% 47% 1% 6%
MO 49% 46% 1% 4%
MT 50% 45% - 5%
NH* 43% 52% 1% 4%
OH 45% 48% 1% 6%
TX 57% 38% 1% 5%
WV 42% 50% 3% 5%

____________________

muckinello:

Gallup is a sleazy communist pollster! It even lays at the right of dailykos! How can it be taken seriously?
Today's poll to consider is GWU or the economist.. tomorrow we will see!
(you betcha!)

____________________

thoughtful:

@Stillow

Then you must be an expert the aleutian current, as you navigated it!

You were well missed, Boomshak though has built up quite a following. Boskop pops most days, haven't heard from Player.

Marctx is flirting with me. I have Obama getting to 54/55% on one of the trackers by Saturday.

Sorry, I'm not an ageist. But 25%+ of Americans couldn't vote for McCain because they think he's too old - and will admit it!

10% of Americans wont vote for Obama because he's a black man - and mostly will NOT admit it!

McCain addressed a crowd yesterday with "my fellow prisoners" - you guys do need a genuine champion of the right - but he isn'it and is really a danger as President.

____________________

jenn:

Should murder become legal if 60% support it, Patrick? You can't claim to have much of a majority anyway with some poll stating it as 60%.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I know right! It's off to me. Liberals want gov. out of our lives as well as much as conservatives claim. The difference is we want to be SOCIALLY FREE, free to love who we want, free to do what we want with our bodys. Actually folks, old school TRUE TRUE conservatives are fiscal. They used to stay out of social issues. It's these NEO CON NUTS.

____________________

MB1122:

@ Stillow

Maybe you're just being a smartass about the whole ferry thing, but it doesn't sound like it.

It seems to me like the $$ it would take to build the bridges that would be needed to eliminate the need for the Puget Sound ferry system would be an enormous waste, considering, like Patrick said, the people who live on the islands, can afford the ferry.

____________________

carl29:

I think that Obama's numbers in Virginia have to be pretty decent, I mean, according to their internals. The campaign is spending money and are sending the biggest cheese in the party, Bill Clinton. McCain/Palin are heading there this weekend as well. The Obama campaign wouldn't send Bill Clinton to an state they think is not reachable. Where else have the sent him? Florida, my friend. The fact that they are sending Bill tells me that there is a real shot at the state.

____________________

Commander_King:

Not to mention the Northern and western panhandles of West Virginia are urban and right by Pennsylvania and Maryland. Prime Obama areas.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Ill take an ARG poll showing us up in OH, close in MO and MT, and pulling away in NH. The only # that could be bad is MN but we have a crap load of reputable pollsters showing otherwise in MN.

____________________

Viperlord:

Yes, a Gerald Ford, or heck, even a Richard Nixon (Without the sleaziness) Republican would be good. But Reagan blasted them out of existence it seems.

____________________

boomshak:

GALLUP HAS TRULY AND COMPLETELY LOST HIS FRIGGIN MIND:

Again, Gallup comes in with DOUBLE the RCP Average as his lead for Obama.

Gallup +11
Rasmussen +5
Hotline +6
GWU +3
Reuters/Zogby +4

The average of the other 4 major polls is O+4.5, and he is +11 for two days? Sorry, but that's just f*cked up hardcore.

Even the silly DailyKos poll has had daily sampling Obama +8 the last 2 days.

What planet is Gallup polling on?

____________________

fed:

I don´t think Obama is winning WV, but keep in mind that he has improved his numbers in western Nc too not just in VA and OH

____________________

Viperlord:

I would assume he's lost his mind seeing as he's dead.

____________________

Batony:

The one fear I have if I am an Obama supporter, is that McCain at 174 right now still only has to hold FL(27), OH(20), Va(13), NV(5), CO(9), MO(11), NC (15) ...TRADITIONALLY RED STATES. If he focuses on these states with the ammunition that the DEMS will control all three branches of government...I'm not saying this thing is over by a longshot. Blue and Red states are not called traditional blue or red for nothing. Should be interesting down the stretch.

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

Obama is far more dangerous my freind. I think we will see a gradual tightening of the polls and go into Nov 4 with about an average of 49-47, about a two point difference...which makes it to close to call. Lot of early voter fraud though right here in Nevada by the Dems and ACORN...no matter who wins, its gonna be a legal mess on nov 5

____________________

mysticlaker:

Wrong boomshak: Obama was +12 yesterday on dailykos...

Can you get facts straight ever?

____________________

boomshak:

THE SAD PART:

Gallup is the ONLY poll that gets mentioned in the MSM, even on FoxNews. The obscene outlier is the only one that gets mentioned.

Sad.

____________________

muckinello:

@decided:
That WV poll has too many Dems in it I think. However, I would fell that it is close to 50/50 there, since economics play a major role in WV (as they do in PA and OH). There is a good chance that Obama will carry all three.

____________________

carl29:

muckinello,

Totally agree. Pollsters are good just for a day, the day I like his or her numbers :-).

You betcha!!!

____________________

Viperlord:

The early voter fraud accusations amuse me seeing as what's going on in CO right now....

____________________

boomshak:

@mysticlaker:
"Wrong boomshak: Obama was +12 yesterday on dailykos...

Can you get facts straight ever?"

No dumbass, the DAILY polling on DailyKos has been Obama +8 for 2 days. Geesh.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Boom. It's ok. Settle down! I have some pills if you need them. We liberals always have pills.

____________________

thoughtful:

@ boom

average in the 6 trackers up from 6.2% to 6.5% today non weighted in the tracker.

No more happy mornings for John McCain.

Catch you later.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Isn't arg the pollster that had Obama up 5 in Illinois a few weeks back?

____________________

Commander_King:

Most of WV is democratic. But alot of them dont vote that way in elections. Hopefully that will change.

____________________

jenn:

If you say that the woman should make the decisions for her own body, why does Obama want to make it mandatory for women to have mammograms or other tests? Prevention is good, but you can't have the government trying to control everything!

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

the reason is that gallup has being around since the 30's. People believe that gallup knows what it is doing. How can you compare the track record of gallup vs. the economist, or Hotline, or I don't know which other.

____________________

boomshak:

SOMETHING ODD:

Gallup normally has a pretty good description of why the numbers are the way they are. The last two days, there has been almost no explanation at all - odd.

____________________

Adam:

The WV breakdowns: 55% Dem, 35% Rep, 10% Ind... that can't be right, can it?

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak I have a feeling many of us don't watch Fox Noise so we wouldn't know. You should call Murdock and bitch! What happened to Fox and the party line?!!!!

____________________

fed:

Watching Palin and McCain. Their facal expression tells a lot

____________________

JCK:

@Adam

I don't know what correct numbers are for WV, but the state is traditionally very Democratic.

It wouldn't surprise me if those breakdowns are correct.

____________________

jenn:

Newt Gingrich 2012. Over and out.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'm 36 years old, so maybe someone with more life experience could give me some insite. With that said, I don't remember a time EVER in my life where this country was more divided. Bush really did an amazing job cutting the United States LITERALLY in half. Blue this. Red that. God I was looking at an electoral map when Clinton won. He took SEVERAL Southern states. I have friends, although I disagree, who are gay Republicans. I have pro-choice, RELIGIOUS friends, who are DEM. I do believe the US sits somewhere in the middle, why Obama is so appealing. He's a man of God who is NOT for telling people what to do with their bodies or telling gay people who they can or cannot love. He is EXACTLY what this country needs right now.

____________________

JCK:

CNN exit polls in 2004 reported 50D-32R-18I breakdown in WV.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/WV/P/00/epolls.0.html

____________________

mysticlaker:

Read it and weep boomboom. Please don't cry.

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/09

DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/08 40 52 2 2 2 2

____________________

Batony:

Muckinello,

Obama will win PA, he will not win WV and OH. Joe Biden helps tremondously in PA. And the black pop. in Philly will make the "racist" vote a non-factor in PA. There is not that dominant black vote in OH.

Bill Clinton in Va? Don't know if that is a good idea. That may backfire.

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

Do you mean the explanations in the text.

"Signifying a general stability in the race, Obama has maintained a share of the vote between 48% and 52% over the last two weeks, while McCain's share during that same time period has been between 41% and 45%. The next and final presidential debate will be held Wednesday, Oct. 15 at Hofstra University in New York. -- Frank Newport"

If you are refering to the demographic breakdown. I think they publish that weekly. So this week's demographic breakdown will be released on Monday or Tuesday of next week.

This is the link for the demographic breakdown of last week's:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109042/Candidate-Support-Political-Party.aspx

____________________

m913:

ARG has West Virginia breaking for Obama by 8 points!

____________________

[nemesis]:

jenn:

Obama's plan requires insurance to COVER the tests. Try using facts.

____________________

Viperlord:
____________________

mysticlaker:

@bath...

Yes Bill Clinton will backfire. Biden will backfire. Obama will backfire.

The only evidence of backfiring is Sarah Palin and John McCain.

CANDIDATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
MCCAIN 42 50 8
OBAMA 59 32 9
BIDEN 58 30 12
PALIN 37 54 9


____________________

carl29:

"@boomshak:
SOMETHING ODD:

Gallup normally has a pretty good description of why the numbers are the way they are. The last two days, there has been almost no explanation at all - odd."

If you mean demographics, Gallup released demographic information on a weekly basis. This week's demo will come out on Monday or Tuesday. Here is the link for last week's demo:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109042/Candidate-Support-Political-Party.aspx

____________________

mysticlaker:

@boom

Let me know when you to apologize to me as well...I could use a good ass-kissing.

____________________

NW Patrick:
____________________

Ryguy:

stillow, this voter fraud issue is such a ridiculous and pathetic tactic used by the republican party. its the same every election. what did you mention 7 names earlier that seemed suspicious. for those 7 names that we "fix" there are hundreds of actual voters who are screwed. statistics show that this war against voter fraud is far more hurtful to new voters than it is helpful to "making it a fair election." its a sick tactic used to lower the voter turn out and favor the republican party.

____________________

Viperlord:

I got what he meant about Clinton actually, though I don't really agree.

____________________

carl29:

You know that I am not fan of Bill and Hillary Clinton, but I think that in rural areas and some conservative suburbs Bill Clinton could be an asset for the Obama campaign. Remember that people links Bill C. with the good old days in the economy.

____________________

Viperlord:

Also, Clinton left office with a very high approval rating, 68%. That beats John Kennedy's approval rating by 5%, to put it in perspective.

____________________

mysticlaker:

The best part about these ACORN arguments is how a bunch of "community organizers" and "minorities" can singly handly take the down the entire system.

Wow, these organizers and minorities must be the smartest folks in the world to beat the republicans and the entire federal, state, and local government system election system down. Maybe they should run the country if they are so smart.

____________________

jenn:

From what he communicated at the debate, mammograms would be mandatory if you're on the government plan. If that's not the case, he clearly misspoke.

I don't need the government plan anyway. I would prefer to "shop" around and get the right price. This would surely drive health care costs down.

____________________

mirrorball:

West Virginia voter registration stats as of the 2008 primary

Dems 56.2%
GOP 29.4%
No party 13.2%
other party 1.2%

____________________

Viperlord:

With Obama's plan you can keep your current plan if you like. McCain's plan is the biggest load of BS ever, and is actually more expensive than Obama's plan, while barely fixing anything.

____________________

NW Patrick:

jenn good luck shopping around I hope you don't have a pre-existing condition, the rates could be around $1000 PLUS per month. Good luck with your tax credit McCain will give you. $5000 PER FAMILY? Is he kidding? You can insure a FAMILY for $416 A MONTH? WHAT COUNTRY DO YOU LIVE IN FOOL? EDUCATE~!

____________________

Batony:

@Carl29:

But those same people in rural and suburb areas link Clinton with immorality and dishonesty.

PLEASE READ POSTS, before you tell us Obama is leading Clinton by 8 in WV, you will see that we have been discussing it.

Wow NWPatrick is 36 y/o...interesting. NW I don't think the country is divided as you think. I was a partisan Democrat along with a lot of other people, until the whole illegal immigrant fiasco...after that I officially became and independent. And now that I am an independent I look back and see how shallow I was for only looking at one side of the political spectrum.

____________________

orange24:

With those voter registration stats from WV, why on earth does it go red every election. What gives? Also, wouldn't putting Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton there a few times bring it back to blue?

____________________

jenn:

mysticlaker:

Not sure why you want a group of "cheaters" such as ACORN running the country. Hey, they're giving community organizers a bad name!

That's great if they want to register voters legally- no problem. Getting paid to register the same person multiple times- very disturbing.

____________________

Viperlord:

And let's not forget he's taxing the insurance providers to do this?

____________________

PJ_FFM:

I'm beginning to think that the difference between Diageo/Hotline and especially Gallup is based on the different kinds of samples - or rather, what they do with their sampled data.

D/H uses "likely voters" and seems to base this on the sampled people's self-description as, quote, those voters who say they are "extremely likely" or "very likely" to vote in the upcoming election.

Gallup on the other hand still seems to stick to registered voters.

By intuition I'd guess that both "non-models" might be unable to predict actual voting behavior.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@Jenn...All the shopping and free market approach to health care has done wonders so far. It has left 50 million Americans uninsured and prices skyrocketing for businesses.

Often left out in republican arguments is that it puts the US at a tremendous competetive disadvantage with other countries. As our health care costs sky-rocket other countries have figured out you have to have some cost control and government intervention to keep the market sane. We won't be able to compete in manufacturing if the typical firm has to pay a 30-40% salary premimum because of health care costs. It just doesn't work...

____________________

nick-socal:

Republicans know that they can only win with low voter turn out. That should tell you something about their attitude towards full and unfettered democracy.

____________________

Viperlord:

We also spend more on health care than any other country, with much worse results. Something has to change.

____________________

nick-socal:

@mysticlaker: That's one of the biggest reasons the American car companies have a hard time competing. You'd think Corporate America would be all for universal healthcare.

____________________

Batony:

@Orange24:

We can't underestimate this enough about WVa and I am not trying to diss the state, but an ex-klansman is their US Senator. Also one reason they don't like McCain, is his anti-pork stance. Robert Byrd is the king of Pork. Here in DC, I use to see flyers from a group called the National Alliance, warning that black men had AIDS, don't let them sleep with your white woman. The National Alliance is headquarted in WVa.

____________________

fed:

I just talked to a friend in West Virginia and he told me that older people are moving towards Obama in big numbers. Stil hard to believe he is ahead

____________________

mysticlaker:

@Jenn - Registering someone multiple times is not a crime - it's stupid and should be avoided. What is a crime is voting multiple times, or attempting to vote multiple times. That is fraud and of course is unacceptable.

____________________

jenn:

I can't see the government program giving you a low rate if you have a pre-existing condition. I guess they would be able to because they're the government- they're not going to go out of business. Just shift the extra cost to the
taxpayers!


Patrick- I've educated myself enough this election to know I'm a fool if I vote for Obama.

____________________

carl29:

Batony,

First of all. I don't know whom do you think you are talking to. These are my postings:

"carl29:

Obama up in WV? I don't know what to say, other than I DOUBT IT. We already knew that Obama was not trailing as bad as we thought he would, but ahead is just an exaggeration :-)

Take this polls with a GIGANTIC grain of salt, folks!!!!

Posted on October 9, 2008 12:52 PM"

"carl29:
First, I DO NOT buy that Obama is up in WV. Nonetheless, most polls, out of the very few from the state, has shown Obama doing better than anyone of us could have imagined, I mean..after the primary against Hillary :-(. Although I don't think that Obama will even bother trying that state, it bolds well for him in the rural areas of the neighboring VA. Let's say that Obama trails McCain for around 15% in WV, which is a microcosm of rural VA, if Obama keeps those same margins in rural VA, he could really compensate with the Northern part of the state, "communist country," as McCain's brother called it.

Posted on October 9, 2008 1:10 PM"

I don't know what part of my posting express confidence that Obama is winnig WV? Can you point out my statement underlying such proposition about WV?

Second, Bill Clinton had his problems with morality, which that is exactly my point against him, but people seem to like him, especially small town people. During the primaries, Bill campaigned for Hillary in the "Bubba" areas of PA, IN, NC, and it seems that he was indeed effective with those particular voters.


____________________

boomshak:

CEO'S SCARED TO DEATH OF OBAMA PRESIDENCY!

http://www.chiefexecutive.net/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=Publishing&mod=Publications%3A%3AArticle&mid=8F3A7027421841978F18BE895F87F791&tier=4&id=67E20819CD7646C3B380AD60BB17EFAA

"Job Creators Prefer John McCain 4-to-1 Over Barack Obama"

Over 70 percent of CEOs fear an Obama presidency will be a disaster

"Chief Executive magazine’s most recent polling of 751 CEOs shows that GOP presidential candidate John McCain is the preferred choice for CEOs. According to the poll, which is featured on the cover of Chief Executive’s most recent issue, by a four-to-one margin, CEOs support Senator John McCain over Senator Barack Obama. Moreover, 74 percent of the executives say they fear that an Obama presidency would be disastrous for the country.

“The stakes for this presidential election are higher than they’ve ever been in recent memory,” said Edward M. Kopko, CEO and Publisher of Chief Executive magazine. “We’ve been experiencing consecutive job losses for nine months now. There’s no doubt that reviving the job market will be a top priority for the incoming president. And job creating CEOs repeatedly tell us that McCain’s policies are far more conducive to a more positive employment environment than Obama’s.”

For several months during this presidential election year, Chief Executive has conducted specialized polling of CEOs’ attitudes on issues affecting national policy and the economy. During this period CEOs were first asked what policies and approaches would work best for business, energy policy and job creation. Subsequently, they were asked which presidential candidate’s policies were best aligned with these prescriptions for growth.

Even though CEOs rated McCain’s policies over Obama’s in the most recent polling, their support came with reservations, as can be witnessed by the B- grade given to McCain’s overall policies. McCain received strong marks for defense and foreign policy but only a C+ on energy, environment and education. Conversely, Barack Obama’s overall plan received a barely passing C- with four out of eight policy areas receiving D grades. Neither candidate received an A.

“I’m not terribly excited about McCain being president, but I’m sure that Obama, if elected, will have a negative impact on business and the economy,” said one CEO voicing his lack of enthusiasm for either candidate, but particularly Obama.

In expressing their rejection of Senator Obama, some CEOs who responded to the survey went as far as to say that “some of his programs would bankrupt the country within three years, if implemented.” In fact, the poll highlights that Obama’s tax policies, which scored the lowest grade in the poll, are particularly unpopular among CEOs.

“Overall, many CEOs are concerned about the future of the U.S. economy and its ability to compete in the global market, but they look to John McCain and hope that this self-described political maverick may yet shake up established thinking and not give into to the tired policies of the past,” concluded Kopko."

____________________

McShame:

@ Boomshak:
No dumbass, the DAILY polling on DailyKos has been Obama +8 for 2 days. Geesh.

Actually you're the dumbass. Obama polled +12 yesterday. Read and weep.
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/09

____________________

sherman:

"Just shift the extra cost to the taxpayers"

Um...yeah, see, the taxpayers are paying for the uninsured anyway. Got it?

Only a true fool would vote for McCain.

____________________

sherman:

CEOs terrified of Obama? GOOD! Maybe they'll think twice about running their companies into the ground and asking the government to bail them out.

____________________

nick-socal:

Does anyone else feel like Bush, Paulson, Bernanke, et al have no clue what to do about our financial crisis? It's like they are playing Whack-A-Mole as issues come up and they have no clue how to anticipate what's next. First they want $700 billion to buy up banks' bad debt. Then the Fed says ok we'll print $1.6 trillion to buy up the short-term commercial paper. Then we're going to lower interest rates. Then McCain comes along and says why I'll just pay off the difference of what you owe and what your house is worth. Now Paulson says he'll just buy the stinking banks outright.

And none of it is working. None of it is building confidence. These guys along with McCain's moronic plan have no clue.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@boom

Good cut and paste from freerepublic! Great job. The countries least respected people right now - CEO's want McCain. The reason they are worried is that most of them belong in jail, and that's more likely under an administration that cares about the country and working people.

PS. I am still waiting for my ass-kissing and apology! You can send in a $10 dollar donation to Obama if you want to.

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

First, that magazine is Republican. Look for the editor's contributions, all R on the side.

Second, Obama has said it over and over again. He is not going to give CEO's the tax cuts that McCain is promising. No way, jose :-( Of course they don't like the idea.

____________________

jenn:

mysticlaker-

I realize registering multiple times is not illegal. But why would ACORN do it, if they weren't trying to get multiple votes from the same person?

____________________

boomshak:

McCain really needs to create an ad around tht CEO Poll.

____________________

sherman:

Because...Americans have great trust in CEOs these days? Yeah, you're right, that would make a great campaign ad.

____________________

Batony:

@Nick-Socal:

To be honest no one really knows. And especially Obama(lawyer) and McCain(soldier). We will just have to wait it out. I am so happy I moved all my money from stocks last year.

@Carl29

I believe I responded to this comment:

You know that I am not fan of Bill and Hillary Clinton, but I think that in rural areas and some conservative suburbs Bill Clinton could be an asset for the Obama campaign. Remember that people links Bill C. with the good old days in the economy.

____________________

carl29:

Actually, Obama should highlight McCain support among CEO's when talking about his tax cuts for the middle class and making millionare-CEO's pay their dues. Great idea. The average Joe is going to love it.

____________________

Ryguy:

oh yeah, im sure that the american voting public is going to vote along the lines of what wealthy CEO's think. its fail proof!

____________________

Adam:

We all know that voter suppression is the GOP's goal in many states, but they can always publicly say they're trying to prevent "voter fraud." As far as I know, there's no "smoking gun" memo on the subject that would hold up in court. (Is there?)

But if it can be PROVED beyond a reasonable doubt that any organization -- Republicans, Democrats, Communists, Ventriloquists, anyone -- has a specific, defined strategy whose purpose is to suppress voter turnout, they should be convicted of TREASON. I'm not kidding. Nothing makes my American blood boil like the idea that there are people out there seriously trying to deprive others the right to vote.

____________________

nick-socal:

@Adam: I second that. It's infuriating.

____________________

carl29:

Imagine, it will be an US vs. THEM: On the one side the working class, the little guy, who feels that Wall Street has robbed and raped us and on the other side the rapist, the robbers. Barack with defending the little guy vs. McCain with the CEO's. :-)

____________________

Ryguy:

its infuriating, its dirty, its disgusting. im sure carl rove has a wet dream about it every night.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@jenn...
I realize registering multiple times is not illegal. But why would ACORN do it, if they weren't trying to get multiple votes from the same person?

------------------------------
That's the worst argument I've ever heard. Why would the republicans try and suppress 6000 votes in Montana? Why? Should I take that to mean the entire republican party is broken and therfore never vote for a republican in my life?

No, I take it to mean that the system needs to have protections in it, which is what the parties, local counties, and lawyers do. It's part of the system.

Man, this election is going to be way too easy for as if Acorn and Ayers is what repugnants have left....

____________________

Batony:

Interesting thoughts from some McCain supporters in WI:

"Alicia Thorson of Waukesha says she thinks the polls are fixed. The mother of four says she doesn't trust what she called the "liberal media."

Thorson's 3-year-old and 7-year-old daughters were dressed like Palin outside the sports complex where McCain was to hold a noon town hall meeting.

Kristi Czaplewski says she doesn't believe the polls because "you can't believe anything you see on TV."

And 73-year-old Dave Zalar of Jefferson says he believes the press is biased against McCain so he doesn't believe the polls either."

____________________

orange24:

I love it when Repulicans break out the voter fraud argument every election. I know because I used to be a registered Republican until W hijacked the 2000 election. The perpetrators of the greatest voter fraud in the history of mankind (the 2000 election) always complain of voter fraud in presidential elections.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Are they trying to throw Todd Palin under bus? News organizations are reporting that Todd Palin applied pressure to Sarah Palin's staff to fire the Governor's ex-borther-in-law without her knowledge. Does anyone believe that her staff acted on these requests without her knowledge?

THIS IS MALARKY. IT's PURE HOGWASH. CAN ANYONE IN POLITICS IN THE STATE OF ALASKA PROVE THEMSELVES NOT TO BE A LIAR?

____________________

mysticlaker:

RAS Michigan:

Good guys: 56
Weird guys: 40

Send in Palin! Please.
----------------------------------

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

Obama leads McCain 56% to 40% in the survey taken Wednesday night. A month ago, the Democrat was ahead by seven points, 51% to 44%.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"My point is I come to Seattle for vacation, giving your economy my money...we stayed in Paulsbow and it cost me $17 each way to get to Seattle.....build a bridge.......$17, thats insane man! Politics aside, thats to damn high!"

Private enterprise, no? They charge what the market will bear. If you build a bridge it'd be on the public ticket.

____________________

cinnamonape:

This might explain the West Virginia numbers.

http://www.wvpubcast.org/newsarticle.aspx?id=4862

And it's been reported that the increase in Obamas Virginia numbers are coming from increases in the South and West part of that State...whereas his Northern support is staying steady.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"If you say that the woman should make the decisions for her own body, why does Obama want to make it mandatory for women to have mammograms or other tests? Prevention is good, but you can't have the government trying to control everything!"

What a lie! Obama says that INSURERS should have mandatory coverage for mammograms. He has never said that women should have to have mandatory screenings.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"I realize registering multiple times is not illegal. But why would ACORN do it, if they weren't trying to get multiple votes from the same person?"

ACORN registrars are all over the city. Maybe someone registered multiple times at different registrars. Also the use of "fake names" that are so obvious (Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck) implies that someone is attempting to screw up ACORN. Any real fraud would NOT be by the use of such obvious names...but the law says that once someone submits a voter registration form the person involved in registering that person MUST submit it. They can "flag" it so that the Secretary of State can decide its legitimacy, but they can't toss it themselves.

That's because people DO, sometimes, have weird names. Also, people MUST change their registrations if they move. Thus there may be multiple registrations under the same name at different addresses simply for this legitimate reason. Technically the older of the registration should be cancelled. In fact, I've submitted a new registration form several times...because I have moved. Haven't you? Or are you illegally voting at your old address? Some people do...but the Republicans say they are going to challenge people who do this. Thus ACORN is getting vast numbers of re-registrations - and these are all now being called "suspicious" by the Republicans.

Some of these "suspicious" registrations may be perfectly legitimate.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@orange24

Meanwhile, those Republican cheats are illegally removing as many people from the voter rolls as they can. Have you ever noticed how hard they campaign for the Secretary of State position in all the battle ground states, even the Democratic one. The RNC will pour dollars into places so they can control the vote.

____________________

KipTin:

Republican cheats? Get a grip. Do your research. The DEMOCRATIC Secretary of State in Ohio is one of those who supposedly "illegally" removed people from the voter rolls.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Finally, Sarah Palin's argument that the Alaska legislature doesn't have the right to investigate the firing of a public employee that was confirmed by the legislature was deemed BOGUS. The McCain campaign's attempt to move the abuse of power inquiry to the state's personnel board, once again giving Gov. Palin a venue to abuse her power as Governor, was a waste of taxpayers money.

The legislatures report will be released on FRIDAY. At which time, we can gain a little insight into Troopergate and Governor Palin's reasons for trying to cover up this whole sordid affair.

Details here:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081009/ap_on_el_pr/palin_troopergate;_ylt=ArBhknXyGgaMEpvSkrQUvUSs0NUE

____________________



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