10/23-27/08; 831 LV, 3.4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 48, McCain 43
Three thoughts re: recent posts on this site:
First, races do not historically tighten in the last week - they are almost as likely to break wide open.
Second, it is highly unlikely, given the nature of random sampling, that a national poll will be driven by movements in only red states (or only blue states), or among only one candidate's "base".
Third, given the frequency with which states are polled today, we should see true national trends reflected in state polling almost simultaneously. As always, check the dates for those polls before drawing conclusions.
Posted on October 29, 2008 1:20 PM
I'm confused....On the Ipsos site it's 48-42 and RCP report it as 50-45....what's going on?
Posted on October 29, 2008 1:25 PM
Hey, when did they turn MS pink?
Posted on October 29, 2008 1:32 PM
Yup, if you open up the IPOS link from RCP, Obama's actual lead is 6%. Maybe wishful thinking from a right leaning site???
Posted on October 29, 2008 1:33 PM
It's just pollster's hourly typo.. Gotta keep the schedule. =)
Posted on October 29, 2008 1:36 PM
Whichever way you turn it, compared to last week's IPSOS/McClatchy it's down from 50:42 (O+8) to 48:42 (O+6).
NOT. GOOD. :(
Posted on October 29, 2008 1:50 PM
You're right PJ.. at this rate.. McCain will overtake Obama in 3 more weeks!
Posted on October 29, 2008 1:54 PM
NorthernObserver, "Hey, when did they turn MS pink?"
It's not your father's map. And it's not Kerry's map either. :)
Posted on October 29, 2008 2:27 PM
Seeing AZ pink just tickles ME pink!
His own state for
Posted on October 29, 2008 3:35 PM
Yawn. Another national poll released by HARRIS today. Obama up 6 and with 50%+ of the vote. See new chat thread for more info.
Posted on October 29, 2008 4:46 PM
...check the dates for those polls before drawing conclusions.
Check the dates for the national polls, too. This Ipsos poll is two days old, for instance. GWU/Battleground, being a five-day tracker that doesn't poll on Friday or Saturday, often includes one or two days worth of data that is older than almost any state poll is when it's released.
Posted on October 29, 2008 4:48 PM
LOL PJ_FFM...as if a 6 point lead less than a week away is a bad thing.
Looked at the state by state polls lately?
Seems it's a typo on this site too at 5. Ipsos says 6! LOL
Posted on October 29, 2008 4:49 PM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR