Pollster.com

In today's national polls, McCain has gone 0 for 10.

Compared to the tracking polls, I find this NBC poll and the CBS poll of curiosity value as sample is much smaller.

Interesting numbers, again favoring Obama.

However, we're getting to the point where national polls are becoming somewhat irrelevant. State polls and the electoral college map are becoming increasingly relevant.

Polls today out of NC/CO/VA/FL/MO all should make Obama supporters happy. And ABC's OHIO poll just out shows Obama +6.

Woah, 296 for Obama now!

@Indiana4Obama

Yes and the ABC OHIO poll looks far better conducted and far more respondents than this and CBS national polls.

When is the next Selzer poll or any one else due for Indiana?

Thoughtful,

Obama will be here in Indianapolis on Wednesday. I bet we see an Indianapolis Star poll within the next couple of days.

There is a TON of energy in this state right now. I'm phone banking this week and the ground game is unlike anything I've seen. Obama may not win it, but he'll make it VERY interesting.

They just turned Florida blue!

@Indiana4Obama

Thanks for the update. Interesting immediately after the Debate.

The Campaign must have some insightful internals to make the investment.

Good luck on the canvassing!

Thoughtful,

Thanks...Given Obama's recent appearances in North Carolina and his upcoming appearance in INDY, I think you're right about the internals. Obama's camp feels very confident about North Carolina and increasingly confident about Indiana.

There are 3 sections of the state which Obama is really showing strength (Indy metro, Indy suburbs, and northwestern Indiana). If he can do well in southwestern Indiana he has a real shot.

Watch Obama charmed them. They won't resist the change we need.

I read somewhere this morning that Selzer is working on an IN poll currently....any news about Howey-Gauge polling for the state, since he is considered the best in that state.

sunnymi:

I'll try to find some info on the Selzer poll.

Mccain has supposedly begun pouring resources into the state. But I see/hear 10 Obama ads for every Mccain ad. And I've seen no evidence of a Mccain office/ground game here in central Indiana.

I'm sure Mccain is counting on the social conservatives to pull him through in the Hoosier state. We'll see...

Boom,

I'm repeating myself from an earliet thread, but just in case you didn't see it, I have a question for you:

You told us to laugh at you if Monday McCain and Obama weren't in an statistical tie, no?

You've given us hundreds of reasons why you thought McCain has to win. Can you now admit you were wrong in every way?

I'd also love if, for the record, you could admit that it's more than McCain, that you are in fact wrong about everything regarding American politics.

And, if you straight up say that you now realize you are a LOSER, I for one will point out that you, in fact, have something in common with The American War Hero, John McCain.

this is my first time on this site though I have read it a lot and enjoy it. I feel as most of you do, that obama is the winner unless their is a massive screw up on bo's part....mcslime just has to many states to protect, let alone win the ones he needs to get 270...happy days may not be here again, but they are on the way

AND FLORIDA GOES BLUE!!!!
WHEEEEEE :D

what are everyobdy's thoughts on bo winning both ohio and florida....does everybody think the polls will hold and he will end up with these on 11/4? I get excited like you about these polls but are they sustainable?

Florida might be sustainable, although the GOP loves to cheat so we will see. I think Obama is probably 1-2 points ahead in Ohio, but that Ras Florida poll is good news as is CO, I am skeptical about Missouri but we will see. Virginia is all over the place from O +10 to O +2
. On Fox Noise they were saying that the Bradley Effect might cost Obama about 5 points in some states, I find it hard to believe it could be that much. Maybe 2-3 points. I think that for every person who won't vote for Barack because of his race there is another that will vote for him because they want the 1st black President.

ABC News/Wash Post - Ohio - obama +6

The NBC and CBS are conducting national polls with super small sample size and mistating the MOE.

658 RV for a national poll?

I don't think you can poll Texas with just 658 RV.

The Asian markets are dropping as I type. Things are not good. Barack may get in, but he has a huge crisis to resolve as his first task, and it appears like its gonna last well into his Presidency (perhaps throughout his Presidency).

Ohio early voting turned out to be a dud. It's big here in FL, and people are used to it. Disappointing about OH, but we're still in good shape there.

In terms of which battleground states are most likely to go Obama, BEFORE today's polls, 538 had the following, in terms of probability of Obama win. Today's polls will move some of these numbers up.

1a. New Mexico 90%
1b. Michigan 90%
2. Pennsylvania 87%
3. Colorado 85%
4. Virginia 81%
5. New Hampshire 80%
6. Florida 70%
7. Ohio 69%
8. Nevada 68%
9. North Carolina 54%
10. Indiana 49%
11. Missouri 47%

The above does not include states McCain had mentioned as possible, all of which are 90+% now Obama: ME, WI, MN, and IA.

We know Kerry states plus Iowa + New Mexico are a fairly safe bet at this point, which yields 264. That means Obama needs to win one of the following: CO, VA, FL, OH, NC, IN or MO. Obama leads in the first five and is close in IN and MO. In addition, as we know, an Obama win in NV, where he leads, and no where else sends the election for President to the House. In the House, according to any reasonable projection, Obama wins the tie (although the country waits until January to be sure no elector switches allegiance).

Conclusion: Obama has 7 states (8 if we include NV) to select from, and needs to win one. McCain has to win all seven (8 including NV). ABC reported today McCain is shelving plans to push for a win in MI (which we knew) and PA and NH. Not surprising given this scenario. Still, McCain will need to focus all of his resources (which are inferior in most respects in terms of quantity) to all seven/eight states - all RED states, to attempt to win all of them. Odds are, I would think, that regardless of the McCain effort, some will turn blue with the most likely candidates CO and VA, but Obama only needs one.

With all of the election day shenanigans from FL and OH the last two elections, I would think pro-Obama voters do not want to rely on either of these states. MO and IN are tough I think. NC is possible but not anywhere close to reliable.

I believe NV, VA and CO are best bets. NV+CO or NV+VA or NV+CO+VA --- one of these is a likely outcome, at a minimum in my opinion. It is also difficult to believe that if Obama carries MI by double digits, that he does not also carry OH, but again I would not rely on OH. As to FL, I just can not tell and I do not trust FL at all in terms of voting integrity.

After those three combos above, the rest are gravy, apple pie, ice cream and a six-pack from Joe's bar!

An excellent analysis Paul. In OH and FL, they can go blue but we need safe margins. Like at least 4 or 5%.

Things are definitely going Obama's way, ever since the AIG collapse.

Slinky

I read the Krugman piece, as you suggested. Like most people, I fear it a little to complicated for me. McCain's plan insures more than are insured now? That one surprised me. I am sure Obamas does, but it is the price that scares me. I suppose complicated issues are why we look at candidates values and trust them to make the hard choices for us. On many things, it is the best we can do.

Question:

If de-regulation is the cause of the current financial mess, why are they bailing out banks in Europe? I thought they were regulated to their eyebrows there.

The Europeans and Asians invested large sums in our marketplace, as we did theirs. The 'cause' of the crisis is subprime lending, but, as Richard Fuld revealed to Congress today, the banks forgot to create a difference between their commercial and residential lending operations. They lent on (virtually) the same no money down, ARM terms to commercial builders (read warehouse builders and shopping center builders) as they did for residential mortgages. So, we learned today, as a result of Congressional questioning, that the failures are much more severe than just bad loans to high risk residential mortgages. They pervade the whole system of real estate (entirely) and because they were the basis of unregulated commercial paper... well, you get the drift.

So, even if the whole bubble was built on the residential market, it quickly spread bigtime, and accounts for all the unoccupied office, warehouse, and store space in my neighborhood (and, I would imagine, in yours.).

I am not certain Krugman is correct that more who are uninsured now would find insurance under the McCain health plan. That IS what Krugman says, but, $ 5000 will buy insurance for very few people. Krugman assumes there are some so healthy in among the 47 million uninsured that they could buy insurance if somebody gave them 5 grand to do it with. I'm not sure he's right. I am not certain any insurance co. will charge that little, and I doubt those healthy among the 47 million would spend anything extra, above and beyond the McCain tax break, to purchase the policy.

I hope we won't have to figure out whether I'm right or Krugman, as I really dislike the McCain plan.

Actually, in my neighborhood, you would have to include home builders, as opposed to buyers. These guys have built entire subdivisions and can't sell a thing. If they got nothing down "creative" loans, the banks are hurting indeed.

Are you sure you want your party in power for the next 4 years? It will either be the chance to be a hero, Bigtime, or a chance to haul in a lot of blame. With the deck stacked against you. And it is uncharted territory, no maps to follow.

Every politicians wet dream or nightmare?

Sweet new Ohio poll, Obama's going all the way, 375 EVs, landslide!!

@Slinky,

Just to clarify, under McCain's plan an individual would receive $2,500.00 and a family would receive $5,000.00...the only catch being that people would have to pay taxes on their employee sponsored insurance, and with these tax credits, it's likely that many employers will dissolve their health care plan to cut costs on the basis that their employees can use their tax credits...this creates two clear problems: The tax credits are not sufficient to pay for a full health insurance plan, also, if employers drop their health plans, then where will the government collect their tax revenue to support the tax credits?

axt113

I understand your enthusiasm. But EV's are designed to make a tight race look not so tight. Does 375 qualify as a landslide?

Recall Reagan in 80 got 489 and followed that up in 84 with 525. And Mondale only carried his home state of Minnesota by 3800 votes.

Business does not see wisdom in McCain's health plan either:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/us/politics/07health.html

I, for one, do not insist that a healthcare plan be absolutely cost neutral, so, the answer to where the money for the credits would come from isn't that relevant for me. The question is whether insurers are willing to insure for the dollar amount that McCain is refunding. In my professional experience as a physician, they are not. Period. Very few health plans cost $ 2500 per individual, $ 5000 per family. I really doubt the insurers will be able to afford my services with that little income. Hence, I am forced to conclude that McCains plan would put many of my patients at risk, without health insurance, diminish their quality of life, and their ability to sustain through a catastrophe (which, frankly, is inevitable, for nearly all of us).

Nope, I don't buy that he's thought it out well enough.

Obama is just extending the system we have now. Not a big leap, but, some effort toward the 47 million. I prefer that way of handling things. Maybe it'll make more employers consider insuring if they know that the State will insure as a last resort, and that they can improve their employees lives by paying only a relatively small amount incremental, not in direct pay, but in tax sheltered insurance premiums.

I think Obamas plan might do some of that. Maybe not for Wal-Mart, but at Mom and Pop Mart.

After much prodding by lots of folks on this site, I read Obamas health care plan.

http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/issues/HealthCareFullPlan.pdf

Looks kind of long on promises but short on specifics.

"Barack Obama and Joe Biden will require that all children have health care coverage. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will expand the number of options for young adults to get coverage by allowing young people up to age 25 to continue coverage through their parents’ plans."

Ok, because it is required all children will now be covered? If not, does that make Mom and Pop criminals?

"Preventive care only works if Americans take personal responsibility for their health and make the right decisions in their own lives – if they eat the right foods, stay active, and stop smoking. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will ensure that all Americans are empowered to monitor their health by ensuring coverage of essential clinical services in all federally supported health plans, including Medicare, Medicaid, SCHIP and the new public plan. Americans also benefit from healthy environments that allow them to pursue
healthy choices and behaviors that can help ward off chronic and preventable diseases. Healthy environments include sidewalks, biking paths and walking trails; local grocery stores with fruits and vegetables; restricted
advertising for tobacco and alcohol to children; and wellness and educational campaigns. In addition, Barack Obama and Joe Biden will increase funding to expand community based preventive interventions to help Americans make better choices to improve their health."

AA's For McCain / Palin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxhYampIl7A

FDR was up to it. Now maybe we'll see if Obama is.

Obama Tsunami! Aieeeee!

Darn, I hit post with a lot more to say.

Those are all nice things. Truly lofty goals. But not my responsibility to provide to the rest of the country. If you are sick, you should get medical help. Your Mommy should tell you to eat your veggies, not the Feds.

Will I be fined for smoking in the privacy of my own home. Well, yes, via taxes. On a personal note, 8 days and counting, tobacco free.

How about cauliflower. Will I be fined if I don't eat it? Well, no, but they will tax the hell out of all the non fruits and veggies.

If I don't exercise, are the G-men coming for me? Will they take into account arthritis in my knees?

The bottom line to all of this is: I neither need or want the federal govt that involved in my life. You guys rant and rave about Big Brother from the Repubs. When govt gets into your kitchen, your bedroom, your back yard, that is Big Brother.

slinky

Strange you should mention Walmart. From the Obama plan:

"requiring all large employers to contribute towards health coverage for their employees or towards the cost of the public plan"

Sounds like the anti-Walmart plan that was tried in one of the blue states. Maryland I believe. Shot down in court.

Even if it does fly, what do think will happen? You force a company to spend more than it does now on health insurance. And you will be surprised when they make up the cost somewhere else. For example, how many people they employ.

In the name of health care for all, we are going to put people out of work, so even more will qualify for a govt program. Gee, if none of us worked, we would reach Nirvana. The govt would have to provide everything for everybody, including health care. Hell, if I wanted that I would move to France, lol.

Damn libs. Been all over me to talk about specific policies. Read Obama's plan. Do your homework Troll.

Hell, last night I even had a demented dwarf up my ass. (1-up on Richard Gere!)

I read Obama's "plan." Told you why parts of it are pure BS. And not a lib to be found.

Be careful about telling people to read Obama's plans. It just might work against you.

@tinymike

I'm sure you can fit a lot more than a single dwarf up your trailor park ass Mike. Good to know that you finally learned how to read. Hope that works out for you.

@Bigmike & Dwarf

You guys were made for each other. Arf, arf, arf...

One word: Geronimo!

:-)

Big Mike:

I fail to see the logic in your argument. Regulating consumer products cannot be equated to intrusive "Big Brother" government. According to your logic it should be acceptable to put cocaine in soda (I don't want the government telling me what to eat)...the fact is there are certain things that are harmful to consumers, go check the list of additives in a McDonald's hamburger, you'll find that the only reason those additives are in there is to make you addicted to the food. It won't make your burger taste any less greasy, trust me. By the way, France's health care system is far superior to our own, we pay more for our health care than anyone else in the world...a simple Google search for prescription drug prices in Canada should tell you that...do you think those drug companies are not making a profit there? Well, they make three times the amount here, and you get to pay it. By the way, they have Wal-Marts in Europe, who give their employees six weeks vacation, health coverage, 401k plans and competitive wages and they still make gobs of money...your point of view on these issues is outdated, and has been proven wrong by every market socialism country in the world, all of whom vastly outpace the United States in virtually every category except national defense...by the way, in case you missed it, there is a connection there! It amazes me that Republicans bitch about the cost of health care and then go ahead and spend over a trillion dollars on an absurd, useless war...

I have been reading this site for months but never posted. I just wanted to comment on some of the postings re: the Bradley Effect. I don't think there will be any Bradley Effect and most of the recent research on this bears that out. Also, Obama often OVER performed in primary contests vis a vis his polling numbers. I think the reason you keep hearing about the Bradley Effect all the time on Fox News is because they are laying the groundwork for stealing the election. They need to provide a cover, an "explanation" for why McCain wins when the polls have him losing.

@bigmike:
375 qualifies as a landslide, according to intrade.com
place yer bets!!!
;-)

@ThisLand

It's going to be much harder for GOP thugs this time, particularly in Florida and Ohio, though I am concerned about Diebold machines that have presumably been shown to be "error" prone.

Any web references on this?

The turnout worries me as well. Inadequate polling facilities or insufficient time for voters to cast their ballots could disenfranchise significant numbers.

I'm not informed enough to know where the likeliest infringements might occur. Pennsylvania? FL and OH again?

I can almost imagine a "Bradley Effect" in which women who ostensibly support Obama and whose husbands support McCain enter the voting booth and can't bring themselves to vote against their husbands. It's a kind of Stockholm Syndrome Bradley Effect, if you will. Of course, the opposite could also happen, if husbands know what's good for them. Heh, heh.

@Basil

Your worrying way to much, the Obama team has armies of lawyers, and democratic mayors and governors looking out for them in most of these battleground states+ they have lots and i mean lots of money. and this isn't like other elections in which women will simply vote a certain way just to please their husbands, this election MEANS something more then voting for your favorite guy to have a beer with!

OBAMA GROUND GAME? WHAT GROUND GAME?

We keep hearing about the AMAZING OBAMA GROUND GAME. Well, they had early same-day registration and voting in Ohio. You may have heard of it. Obama's "ground game" was supposed to deliver 10's of thousands of homeless and drug-addicts to the polls to vote for Obama.

Well, not so much. Yesterday, Ohio announced that only 3,000 people had taken advantage of the early registration/voting. State Election Officials, hoping they had illegally engineered an Obama win were SHOCKED, SHOCKED I tell you!

Lol, ground game my ass.

THREE NATIONAL POLLS TODAY 48-45 OBAMA:

That's 3 National Polls now that show this a 3 point race (48-45). DemCorps, CBS and Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby.

Possible Reasons:

1) They are all flawed exactly the same way at the same time.
2) They are undersampling Democrats (no, CBS gives Dems a 9 point advantage).
3) During the debates, Palin had an emotional effect compared to Biden's cognitive effect. Emotional effects, although slower to appear, tend to last longer.
4) People are actually hearing about Ayers for the first time and they are saying "hmmmm".
5) They were willing to give Obama a chance when the economy looked dicey, but are nervous about someone who is untried if things are really bad.

Who knows. Maybe Obama peaked too soon and people are growing tired of his schtick.

IN CONCLUSION, THIS QUOTE FROM ZOGBY:

"UTICA, New York - The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as the contest enters its last four weeks, and with a pair of crucial debates immediately ahead, the first report of the fall Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.

The survey, including a three-day sample of 400 likely voters collected over each of the previous three days - Oct. 4-6, 2008 - shows that Obama holds a slight advantage amounting to 2.4 percentage points over McCain. This represents a bit of a recovery by McCain, who had been sliding in some polls before his running mate, Sarah Palin, put in a strong performance in her one and only debate performance last Thursday. Though a Zogby poll showed that Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden actually won that debate, it also showed Palin far and away exceeded expectations, and that has apparently helped stop McCain's decline in the polls.

Three Day Tracking Poll
10-6

Obama
47.7

McCain
45.3

Others/Not sure
7.0

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, conducted by live telephone operators in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,237 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points."

P.S., This is no BS Internet Poll. This is a telephone tracking poll with 1,200 respondents over 3 days.

McCain's THEME going into Nov 4th will be "Who is the REAL Obama?"

That actually might work. All we have heard about for the last 2 years from the MSM is Obama Talking Points and spin.

Let's see what America thinks when we really start to focus on some of the not-so-pleasant stuff.

Also, just a month out and Mccain is making THIS the issue, the MSM will be hard pressed not to give unbiased coverage.

How will it look with the whole world watching and the press refuses to look into these allegations or when they do, they only report the parts that support Obama and ignore the rest (like the NYTimes Ayers article).

McCain should say this in the debate:

"Senator Obama, I'm afraid you have me at a disadvantage. You see, I have to pay for my advertising. You get free advertising 24/7 masquerading as hard news from the MSM.

You seem to think America will vote for you just because the News Media tells them to. Well, America is smart and decisive and they don't need some Journalism Major from Berkeley telling them what to think or how to vote."

OMG!

The Presdident of NOW has just come out in favor of Palin!

In other news, hell froze over.

Presdident = President

boomshak:

That's 3 National Polls now that show this a 3 point race (48-45). DemCorps, CBS and Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby.

Only one of those polls shows a tightening race.

Trendlines, boomshak, trendlines.

Another brillant move by the McInsane campaign. They announced yesterday that they plan to cut Medicare and Medicaid.

bye bye Florida....LOL...