Pollster.com

To repeat the result of a calculation I made elsewhere, it appears the last three daily samples have been something like +3, +5, +5.

MUH-KANE SURGE!!!

.4 % is not a surge. it's noise.

Cab someone explain this to me:

"Obama continues to lead among independent voters – his advantage now stands at 16 points, 51% to 35%.

Exactly how can Obama be up by 16% points amung independents and this be a 4 point race? It makes no sense to me.

@shabby:

zogby assumes there are as many democrats as republicans. That says all about whether you should take this poll serious.

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

.4 % is not a surge. it's noise.

Hope springs eternal. Your man is in trouble. All the news is this, "Is Barack Obama a Marxist?"

The LA Times admits to having a VERY damning video of Obama hanging out at a party with terrorists, Jew-haters and Marxists but they are actually REFUSING TO RELEASE IT!

What if they had a video-tape of John McCain at a party hobnobbing with the KKK? Would they refuse to release that as well?

@Shannon

Hey, don't tell that to boom. I'm just trying to humor the poor little guy. His neocon pals are about to be ran out of office with their tails between their legs, so we at least owe him that much.

@Boom****head:

You are a sociopath. Please, get some help. If not for yourself, do it for the children. Think about the children, boom.

Rasmussen should tighten again today. Do the math. There is a high liklihood McCain actually polled +1 on Sunday.

Obama had a strong single day of polling on Monday, pollster John Zogby said, and still holds a significant edge among Hispanics and Catholics, two groups who gave a boost to Republican President George W. Bush's re-election win in 2004.

McCain needs to gain 1.1% PER DAY on the national tracker, and hope that it come from the swing states as much as the safe states to have a 50/50 chance next Tuesday.

That's going to be hard to do, even if these lies the Republicans are trying to spread.

GAS PRICES UNDER $2 A GALLON BY EKECTION DAY?

That can't be good news for ObaMarx.

@shabby

Zogby not only uses equal party ID's. He is also ussing the equivalent of the Gallup Traditional LV model. He is probably 2-3 pts favaring the reps.

Boomshak, do you know that the Mccain camp think they lost VA and NM? They are pinning their hopes in PA? It's over dude

I heard that McCain has been having secret meetings with the wall street elites. He's promised to double the amount of the federal bailout and return all their stock to them.

Guys, I don't want to say how I got this info, but there is a HUGE new video tape that Drudge has linking Sarah Palin to CONVICTED Alaska senator Ted Stevens. All I can say is that it involves MONEY LAUNDERING and A SEX SCENE WITH SCREECH FROM SAVED BY THE BELL!

Drudge is releasing the tape today, but only to his boyfriend/lover Zogby. This tape is said to be EXPLOSIVE and will blow the campaign WIDE OPEN! Look for an Obama lead of +500,000,000 in tomorrows polls. THIS IS A HUGE BREAKING DEVELOPMENT!

CNN, FOX and MSNBC will have more on it at 8 A.M. this morning. Be sure to tune in. It's gonna be a SHOCKING revelation to all the Palin supporters out there!

haha boom! great math.

Does McCain's ties to SADDAM LOBBYISTS threaten to blow his campaign apart?

Your guess is as good as mine.

@boomshak, you said "GAS PRICES UNDER $2 A GALLON BY EKECTION DAY?That can't be good news for ObaMarx."

This "data" might make you rethink about this hope of yours....Gas Prices have fallen a dollar in the last 30 days and during the same period Obama's lead in the national trackers has risen from +4.6 to a +7.3

The current top ten most-viewed political stories on Yahoo! News:

1. Feds disrupt alleged plot targeting Obama

2. McCain fights for comeback in hard-hit Ohio

3. GOP 'mavericks' concerned with McCain

4. Biden compares Obama attacks to past presidents

5. Obama targets Va., Pa. in homestretch

6. Obama delivers ‘closing argument’

7. McCain warns of dangers of Dem control

8. Is Sarah Palin preparing for 2012?

9. Analysis: Verdict helps Democrat Senate-seekers

10. Michelle Obama shops at J. Crew, buys online

The story "GOP Internet Warrior ask 'Is Obama a Marxist?'" is strangely absent from the list.

Dear Mr. Boomshak,
Sadly, judging by some of the folks appearing at his rallies and "inspired" by his rhetoric (self-mutilators and would-be assassins included), it would seem that McCain is "hobnobbing with the KKK."

Boomshak, where is the 'Whitey' video?
I thought that was in the hands of some 'wingnut'....did he lose it :-)

401k balances still 30% lower than they were 2 months ago.

That can't be good news for McSame.

There is more to the economy than gas prices boomer!!!

Another bad day for Obama. Within the last week Obama's lead is now less than five in all major polls. Next week should be even better.

@ southern angler

I agree. Next week will be MUCH better for Obama, after he becomes the President Elect.

God bless America!

Anytime the national polls tightened, it seems like the McCain camp thinks that they have a chance to come back! The problem is there is no evidence of a McCain Surge in the state polling! ZERO! Even Zogby had Obama crushing McCain in state polling! The low that McCain can hope for is 5% nationally! But don't think his people going to show at the polls because all signs at this point are pointing to a landslide victory for Obama! Gallup RV POlling is the one to watch! It has predictated all of the Presidents, except Al Gore! Because of FLORIDA! It has Obama up by 10!

Obama loses another point on DailyKos today. Man, you know when your lead starts to disappear on DailyKos (26% Republican Sample), you are in BIG trouble.

10's of millions of people got a chance to listen to the socialist tapes yesterday, thanks to Fox, Rush, Sean and many other national and local guys.

Let Boomshak have his final predictions before Election Day, so far they have all been wrong.

Nothing wrong about having a little 'hope' for your candidate Boom, join the movement.

But seriously, LOL @ McCain +1 by Sunday. Just LOL.

L augh
O ut = L O L

HOLD ON.. boom made ANOTHER "tied by sunday" prediction? Did you assign a speed key on your keyboard to that statement? I think I have seen it posted here by you several more times than McOldie mentioning Joe the plumber ...

You guys do realize Zogby said Kerry was going to win last time.

He cooked his numbers to create a story and get attention. No other tracker has shown any significant movement and this idiot shows a change of +8 in five days, please. You're going to be very unhappy as he corrects his numbers so he doesn't look like an idiot on election day.

@AdamSC:

But seriously, LOL @ McCain +1 by Sunday. Just LOL.

No dumbass. I didn't predict McCain +1 by Sunday. I said that to get to +5 from +8, McCain may have polled +1 this last Sunday.

Read the f*cking post nimrod.

Do the math:

8+8+? / 3 = 5?

R2000 just came out and Obama gained a point ... Just supports what I've been saying all along and that is the trend is likely to prove the most accurate. Pollster trend shows it at +7.2% Obama. Also note how McCain can't get over 45% in any poll other than Ras. With a week left that has got to be more concerning.

At the rate Obama's national numbers are falling, I would say Boom's prediction is probably very close.

Yesterday was at the Obama Pittsburgh rally, nice crowd of approx 12000!. Everyone I spoke to is volunteering, now I am feeling confident that PA will stay blue and, with that, McShame hopes will be drained away!!!
YES WE CAN

WaPo-ABC Track: Early Birds for Obama

More than twelve million voters have already cast ballots in the presidential contest, according to one estimate, and new data from the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows these voters breaking Democratic by a wide margin.

Among those who said they have already voted at an early voting location or sent in an absentee ballot, Barack Obama picked up 60 percent of the vote in the new poll to John McCain's 39 percent.

These voters make up 9 percent of "likely" voters in the track.

The senator from Illinois has a similar lead, 58 to 39 percent, among those who plan to vote early but have not yet. (Those who plan to vote on Election Day also go for Obama, but by a narrower, 51 to 45 percent.)

These early voting numbers are a near mirror-image of those from the last two elections: A paper using the National Annenberg Election Study reports that George W. Bush scored 62 percent of early voters in 2000 and 60 percent of them in 2004.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2008/10/wapo-abc_track_early_birds_for.html

@boomshak

you do need to be more thorough ... R2000 Obama gained a point from yesterday ... So Sorry !!!

@paradski:

No other tracker has shown any significant movement and this idiot shows a change of +8 in five days, please.

You are kidding right? DailyKos had Obama up by 13 a week ago. Today, he is up by only 7. That is a 6 point swing to McCain even on friggin DailyKos!

Rasmussen moved 3 points to McCain in one day yesterday! IBD has trimmed 9 points off Obama's lead.

You just have no clue.

@McCain Supporters

Don't Believe the hype! If your candidate is so close, then why are reports of infighting going on in the McCain camp? Those internal polls are showin bad signs inside the camp that is why!

@Lou-NH, you are looking at just last night's polling and Boomshak is talking about the tracker. Both are correct.

We know last night's polling was better for Obama on R2K and Zogby.

@Lou-NH:
@boomshak

you do need to be more thorough ... R2000 Obama gained a point from yesterday ... So Sorry !!!

DailyKos yesterday = O+8
DailyKos today = O+7

Sorry to make you look foolish in public.

Repetita juvant .. said the Romans ..

McCain solidified his support among white and male voters but Obama retained double-digit leads among women and independent voters -- two key swing blocs in the November 4 election.

Obama had a strong single day of polling on Monday, pollster John Zogby said, and still holds a significant edge among Hispanics and Catholics, two groups who gave a boost to Republican President George W. Bush's re-election win in 2004.

"With seven days to go in this race, McCain is still not where he needs to be with some key groups and he is running out of time," Zogby said.
This from the drudge liked ZOGBY.
GOOD NEWS! ONE WEEK! YES WE CAN and YES WE WILL!

"On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +9 Sat, +5 Sunday and +6 Mon, with a +11 Friday sample rolling off.

Here is the tracker-only, high-sensitivity pollster.com graph. What's clear is that tightening is more McCain creeping up than Obama dropping. However, it is not enough to change the election trajectory, as yet another day falls off the calendar, and McCain-Palin pre-post-mortems continue to be written in public."

Ohio

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8247ab3a-7593-421d-8100-61e6e00ebc0b

O 49
M 45

Ohio....

already voted 56-39

That already voted number is amazing. Talk about enthusiasm.

@straight talk:
@McCain Supporters

Don't Believe the hype! If your candidate is so close, then why are reports of infighting going on in the McCain camp?

Reports of infighting? Where? On left-wing blogs and news sites citing those blogs? And on the blogs themselves they cite "unnamed sources"?

Bullsh*t.

"Unnamed sources" my ass. Name names.

Has anyone seen the new Rev Wright ads or have a link. I would like to see them and pass them on to others.

@boomshak: ,
You're making yourself look foolish. Lou-NH is talking about last night's single day of polling... not the tracker.

@Boomshak, Look at these numbers before making stupid statements!

R2K: 50-43(10/28); 50-42(10/21)
Ras: 5-46(10/27); 50-46(10/20)

Only IBD and Zogby have been showing crazy numbers due to their flawed model.

@ boom

Do you even pay attention to the site that you post on. His O' National avg has gone over O-50 for awhile now and even touched 41 and Mac can't break 44.

Here are the avgs.
gallup movement to Obama
LV (traditional)
10/13-19 O-49.43 M-46.43 (D+3)
10/20-26 O-50.29 M-44.86 (D+5.43)
LV (expanded)
10/13-19 O-51.43 M-44.29 (D+7.14)
10/20-26 O-51.71 M-43.43 (D+8.29)

Ras No change
10/5-11 O-51.14 M-44.47 (D +6.57)
10/12-18 O-50.14 M-45.29 (D +4.86)
10/19-25 O-51.14 M-45.14 (D +6)
10/26-27 O-51.50 M-45 (D+6.5)

dkos does show movement to macain but NOT significant +1.79
10/5-11 O-51.71 M-40.43 (D +11.29)
10/12-18 O-51.86 M-41.14 (D +10.71)
10/19-25 O-50.86 M-41.00 (D +9.57)
10/26-27 O-50.50 M-41 (D+9.5)

@straight talk:

You think the Obama Team threw a party for Biden when he made the "Obama will be tested" comment?

I live in AZ and I believe this is true.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/28/4152/9379/499/644273

McCain needs to win Maricopa county (Phoenix) by a large margin to win AZ. Downstate (Tucson) is very liberal and if he only ties or is close in Phoenix he loses. This is how Napolitano won.

JMac just can't seem to catch a break these days.

HAHA. Left wing CNN. Left wing ABC. Left wing everything except Fox.

Boom, what is a legitimate news source to you besides Fox?

Ras: Obama 50, McCain 44

Boom,

You always assume what a candidate polled the previous evening. But if you had any sense you would know that a 3 day tracker is just that: the last 3 days. Which means an above avg day for one candidate may "roll off" as an above avg day for the other candidate "rolls on." And if you look at RK2000, that is what happened. Two big days rolled off (O +14 and O +11) while two new polls replaced them (O +5 on Sunday and a +6 on Monday). That is what caused the shift. As you see Obama actually did better last night than McCain from the previous day and yet the avg went down. It's called math, learn it sometime.

boomshak, good morning, pumpkin.
how will have a string of "really good days for McCain" and "bad news for Obama", 5 days running now and presumably into the next 7, if your perseverance and zeal have taught us anything, - how will all that translate into an Obama blow out on the 4th?

Could you please give us a preview of your Zogby-like excuse message now? If you don't have one yet, you really ought to consider crafting it with only a week to go. It shouldn't contain phrases like "here is what went wrong...", but rather "among my stupid and failed assumptions were..."

Let me know if you need some help. I am here for ya.

Incidentally, we are reaching another period in which there have been no recent non-trackers and thus the trackers are starting to dominate recent averages and trends.

You sure on that parah?

Is that confirmed.

@Boomshak, you said "IBD has trimmed 9 points off Obama's lead."

When did Obama lead by +12 on IBD..the most he ever got on this tracker was a +7.3 for one single day....if you average all the 15 releases he has done so far it comes to O+3.9 and yesterday he was at O+2.8 (not far off the mean).

That just leaves the "swinging" Zogby for you to hang your hat on..do you even think before you write!

NH poll

O 55

M 39

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081028/NEWSBLOG/810280528/-1/XML15

Boom,

Please explain how you expect McCain to get to 270 electoral votes.

@boomshak, you said "Unnamed sources" my ass. Name names."

Don't be so impatient....names will come out in a week..first the issues come out and then come the names....that is politics!

Ohio SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4

Just to repeat, I have Rasmussen something like 0+14, O+2, O-1 over the last few days. So by my calculations it would take a very big day for Obama not to drop significantly in Rasmussen today.

While R2K is better today than yesterday for Obama, the fact remains that it's not nearly as good as last week. A lot of people were expecting the monday numbers to go back up (BO doesn't poll well on weekends). It didn't. If the single day margin tomorrow isn't much larger than today (bringing the overall tracker closer to the beginning of last week), I think we can say it's tightening.

Wow just eating up the news cycles.

Palin "going rouge" as she just can't stop talking about her close. I can just see the McCain strategy team pulling there hair out as she blathers on about her favorite thrift shops.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/palin-defends-rnc-clothin_n_137934.html

This is the big leagues Sarah. People are losing their retirement savings. Thanks for telling us about your department store thrift but NO ONE CARES!!!

This woman is an anchor around the Republican party and they are drowning. HILARIOUS!!! Please keep Sarah talking, let Sarah be Sarah. Send her to AZ so the people here can get a taste of her down home folksy whateverthehellitis. She's good for a 4pt Obama bounce all by herself.

Sarah Palin, the gift that just can't stop giving.

@DTM, you said "Just to repeat, I have Rasmussen something like 0+14, O+2, O-1 over the last few days. So by my calculations it would take a very big day for Obama not to drop significantly in Rasmussen today."

I do not think you will see that kind of swings on Rasmussen because he weights by party ID....it would be more like O+8, O+5, O+2 to achieve the same end result.

Not confirmed, but they had those numbers marked as "latest" in one of their little charts that appeared 15 minutes ago alongside the article for yesterday's release. It seems to be gone now.

@ boom

Biden is a gaffe machine! But his point is right according to history. The new president will be tested! But your vice president is a hypocrite who has ties to Stevens! O and by the way she can see Russia from Alaska! Why is it that the McCain camp cannot get along! And why is it that Pennsylvania is there key to victory when they are down by 12? COULD IT BE THAT REAL AMERICANS KNOW THAT MCCAIN IS A FAKE SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE WHO IS A DEMOCRAT AT HEART? WHY WON'T McCAIN TALK ABOUT IMMIGRATION, ABORTION, BORDER SECURITY, GOD. BECAUSE he IS NOT A TRUE CONSERVATIVE. HE IS A FRAUD! AND A WEAK CANDIDATE THAT IS LOSING! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!

Damn I need an editor. NOT close, clothes. DAMMIT!!!

OneAngryDwarf:

"Wow just eating up the news cycles.
Palin "going rouge" as she just can't stop talking about her close. I can just see the McCain strategy team pulling there hair out as she blathers on about her favorite thrift shops."

To be fair, 1Angry, she also talked about her beaded Eskimo earrings from Todd's mother. We mustn't forget the accessories!

On a personal note, I wonder if it was Bachmann who took Sarah shopping to the Mall of America that fateful day in September.

@OneAngryDwarf:

Actually, I liked this typo of yours: 'Palin "going rouge" ...'

Which, based upon the 150k in clothes and 22k on a make-up artist is much more of an apt statement than her "going rogue".

@sunnymi

I went back quite a bit to see if I could figure out the recent dailies in Rasmussen. What I got was something like this:

+5, +2, +5, +8, +5, -1, +8, +11, +2, +8, +14, +2, -1

This was very back-of-the-envelope and someone may be able to improve on it. Still, I think there is a lot more daily volatility in Rasmussen than perhaps some people have realized.

Obama jet fuel cost to Hawaii $800,000, More than five times the cost of Palin's clothes.

southern angler:

"Obama jet fuel cost to Hawaii $800,000, More than five times the cost of Palin's clothes."

If it helps you any, think of it as our way of giving dinosaur carbons back to jesus.

@angler

I think you got a winner of an issue there. I hope the McCain camp goes with that. I'd like to see the reaction to the repubs critizing a trip to see a dying grandmother.

Truely pathetic.

@southern angler ...

To use an example - From Oakland CA to Honolulu ...

A 767 burns about 2200 gallons of jet fuel per hour, so it uses about 11,000 gallons for the flight. At $4 per gallon that’s $44,000 just for the fuel.

According to the FAA other costs (maintenance and so on) to operate the aircraft were about $1100 per hour in 2004. Using that figure it adds another $5,500 to the cost of our flight.

Adding it up we see the cost to fly a 767 from Oakland to Honolulu is about $50,000.

OK, I went back farther and got a different result for my estimate of the last three days in Rasmussen. For the entire month of October:

+6, +8, +4, +9, +11, +4, +3, +8, +4, +9, +5, +1, +9, -2, +9, +8, +1, +3, +8, +7, +6, +8, +10, +6, -1

But given the manifest sensitivity to my starting point assumptions, I am generally less confident in my back-of-the-envelope calculations, and so I will stop offering them.

It's so funny! All the Republicans post only on the tightest polls that give their peanut-sized brains a wee glimmer of hope. Hey, which one of you a$$holes stomped on my Obama sign yesterday? Everytime that happens, we donate $100 to Obama! So stomp away facists! :-)

Oh, and apparently the early word is Rasmussen +5, no change. Even given the limits of my estimation techniques, if true that almost certainly means Obama had a much better daily result this time than last time.

MNLatteLiberal:
southern angler:

"Obama jet fuel cost to Hawaii $800,000, More than five times the cost of Palin's clothes."

If it helps you any, think of it as our way of giving dinosaur carbons back to jesus."

Haha.. thanks MN.. made my morning.

@Boomshak

You're telling me that McCain's claim that Obama is a Marxist is gaining traction.

Seriously, I wouldn't be able to confirm that because all the new resports I saw yesterday dealt with Sen. Steven coruption trial, the civil war between "Team Sarah" and the McCain handlers, and Obama's closing argument.

Today, I imagine we'll he more about voter fraud, and vote suppression. We'll ponder what will be the effect of Obama's 30 minute campaign ad, and whether or not Senate Democrats will be able to ride his coat tails to 60.

Don't you think that this is the news that is going to carry the day?

CREEP, CREEP, CREEP ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE, MACK!!!!!!

@sotonightthatimightsee

How appropriate that you use the word "creep" in reference to McCain.

Rasmussen confirmed:

O - 51(nc)
M - 46(nc)

Boom and co...wrong again.

I for one would love to hear boom**** explain how McFascist can win the Electoral College.

@DTM: Just to repeat, I have Rasmussen something like 0+14, O+2, O-1 over the last few days. So by my calculations it would take a very big day for Obama not to drop significantly in Rasmussen today.

I trust you don't make a living as a prognosticator. I also hope your family's welfare is not dependent upon your mathematical skills.

Viperlord:

"I for one would love to hear boom**** explain how McFascist can win the Electoral College."

Easy. If they start the tally alphabetically and stop at the a's: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona - a shot out! You libs are lucky there are no "b" states. Balabama, Balaska, Barkansas and Barizona would spell toast for Obama!

Also, watch for Palin pardon Cat Stevens some time by Sunday.

@KMartDad08

Fortunately, no, no one is dependent on my math skills. And see my 9:06 post.

That said, I do think Obama likely had a pretty good day of polling given that he held steady in Rasmussen (maybe not +14, but on the higher side of his recent range).

@DTM

Just kidding, friend.

It does look like Obama had a good Monday's worth of polling in Ras, and if you read the Reuter's article, Zogby is setting us up to see an uptick for Obama tomorrow. Not that any of this matters all that much because the main storyline here is how steady the race seems to be (sorry BOOM, that's just the way it goes).

@Boomshak ... No sir, you are wrong, please read below

Daily Kos Polling Data for October 28, 2008
MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
Overall 43 50 2 2 1 2
MEN 48 44 3 2 1 2
WOMEN 38 56 1 2 1 2
DEM 8 87 0 2 1 2
REP 90 5 2 1 1 1
IND 43 47 4 2 2 2
OTH/REF 42 46 3 2 1 6
WHITE 53 39 3 2 1 2
BLACK 3 95 0 0 0 2
LATINO 31 65 0 2 1 1
OTHER/REF 9 79 0 2 1 9
18-29 32 63 0 1 1 3
30-44 50 45 2 1 1 1
45-59 41 49 3 3 1 3
60+ 44 48 2 3 1 2
NORTHEAST 32 62 1 2 1 2
SOUTH 55 37 2 2 1 3
MIDWEST 41 52 2 2 1 2
WEST 41 51 2 2 1 3

Yesterday's Results
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/27 44 50 2 2 1 1

10/27 3 day tracking Obama 50 McCain 44 = +6
10/28 3 day tracking Obama 50 McCain 43 = +7

If you are going to quote the daily changes on Zogby and Rasmussen then you should at least be consistent with R2000.

Oh looky looky ... Hotline just came in with no change foir 3rd straight day ... So sorry Boom

@boomshack

Ted Stevens was convicted for federal crimes, A Governor can only pardon STATE CRIMES!!

Morons your bus is leaving!!!

McCain has 9% of the African-American vote in this poll. Yeah, right.

That's the parody boomshak, note the spelling of his name.

@boomshak, southern angler,

You guys having fun yet? When Obama is up 5-10 points in all the polls on November 3rd, will you be here warning of his imminent collapse? What about on Nov. 4th at 10pm, when he'll be the presumptive nominee? The thing is, the people who are here reading your posts know that you posted the same exact thing last week and the week before that. If you want to scare us, you need to show some more originality.

Tuesday October 28 Zogby internals of note:

West Region: McCain 50.5, Obama 44.4
Holding base: Obama 83.8, McCain 87.1
Independents: Obama 50.9, McCain 35.4
Already voted: Obama 55.4, McCain 37.2
Males: McCain 47.9, Obama 44.8
Females: Obama 53.1, McCain 41.7
Whites: McCain 52.8, Obama 40.6
AA: Obama 87.7, McCain 9.2
Moderates: Obama 59.6, McCain 33.9