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US: Obama 50, McCain 43 (Gallup 10/09-11)

Topics: PHome

Gallup
10/09-11,08; 2,783 RV 2%

National
Obama 40, McCain 43

 

Comments
AlanSnipes:

Finally, a poll Boomshak will like. but he has called Gallup bunk, so it must not be accurate.


I found out that Lenore Annenberg, the head of all the Annnenbeg boards, one of which bill Ayers sits, has contributed and endorsed John McCain.

Why won't John McCain answer questions about his ties to terrorists?

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VonnegutIce9:

Wow, polls continuing to hold steady for Obama. Findings on Palin and potential legal action will also affect McCain, not to mention his rabid crowds.

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laguna_b:

What is with the second line in the link "National Obama 40, McCain 43" ????Must be a typo 50 not 40.....

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jamesia:

I'm guessing it'll be Tuesday or Wednesday before we see the effects of Troopergate. That'll be a difficult trend for McCain to break out of, going into the last debate.

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straight talk:

Gallup is including leaners now in their polling which helps McCain. But Obam support is firming at 50 or above. And he is annihilating Mccain in state polls. I would say that this is a seven point race today. Tommorrow +1 for Obama

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Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

I notice that there is a sinusoidal wave between obama and mccain, complete with peaks and troughs. Obama predictively troughs on the weekends...(liberals get out more?). The only difference that the waves have *distance* between them, whereas prior wave has obamam and mccain exachanging leads (like a dna helix), now obama has peaks and troughs of really good leads...that's the difference.

stop picking on boomshak!

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jonny87:

any ideas about gallup and rasmussens weighting for age and race?

...recently obamas hispanic support has improved quite dramatically

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

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zotz:

jonny87-
Gallup is an RV poll, meaning that there is no weighting.

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drinkwine247:

Hey:


Look at this, it is that moron with the Obama Monkey from the rally....here he is laughing about "Hussein" the Monkey as he likes to call him!! What a total f#@khead!!

Funny as hell when the people across the street are chanting, "racist, racist, racist!!!"

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drinkwine247:
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rai:

(First time post by interested Brit so be gentle!)

I noted that Gallup Gallup are now also giving voting intentions for likely voters, (along with the headline RV figures.)

Interestingly they have two LV models - one giving O50 M46; the second O51 M45.

The 6 point LV gap of the second model seems to be consistent with other LV polls, (Ras and Zogby.)
It'll be interesting to see if any changes on the RV poll are mirrored on the LV models.

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jonny87:

whoops..will they disclose for LV..and any idea on rasmussen?

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masselo:

I live in florida -- why any these polls never call my house? - i dont get it - can someone explain this to me

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carl29:

jonny87,

Rasmussen is always LIKELY VOTERS. Today, Gallup released the numbers according to their LIKELY VOTER model as well.

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carl29:

masselo,

Don't worry you are in the great majority of people. Just imagine...pollsters interview around 1,200 people out of more than 100M voters. What are the odds that they will call you?

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jonny87:

yes...i was referring to a previous question...what are the weightings for rasmussens LV for age, race?

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masselo:

carl,
if they only interview 1200 voters out of millions -- polls cant be reliable then -- now i really dont believe in polls

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carl29:

jonny87,

Is this what you want to know?

RASMUSSEN:

"the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The population targets are determined by census bureau data."

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straight talk:

I cannot see how McCain is going to come back. McCain is in trouble! Big trouble! I predict that he lose ohio and florida! Really the trailing in Virginia is the nail in McCains coffin. Look for Obama numbers to rise in that state after Bill Clinton comes to towm. Just like it did in Florida. Stumping for bitter primary votes. Clintonites it is time to come home! History is not on the side of McCain!

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carl29:

masselo,

You are totally entitled to your opinion. However, this is based Statistics and every poll you have looked at since you can remember has been conducted in the same exact fashion, in every election cycle. I am myself married to a Math PhD and can tell you that it really works. Don't forget the margin of error of course, which is usually +- 3%.

Did you know that according to Statistics is you put a random sample of 40 people in a room, at least 2 of the will share the same birthday? My husband always does it the first day of class with his Statistic classes.

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crumbtrail:

Why are there so many typos in the banners here? It reflects poorly on the accuracy of the site.

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maddiekat:

All 5 daily tracking polls ( if you use Gallups 2nd model for LV) show Obama with a 6 to 8 percent lead with just over 3 weeks to go. Add that to how he is polling in the battleground states and I feel very good about the current state of the race. It also seems clear that there is no sinister Oct surprise regarding Obama or else the slimeballs would already have used it. You do not wait to get behind by four touchdowns before you bring in your secret weapon.

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carl29:

maddiekat,

Just to put things in context,

In 2004, in the month of October up to the 11th, which is where we are right now:

Bush 48.1% Kerry 46.5%

Right now, in the month of October up to today, the 11th:

McCain 42.9% Obama 49.5%

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reverendmatt:

I love seeing this kind of lead but don't become complacent, not only is the McCain campaign trying every trick in the book but many of the leading members of the outgoing adminsitration face a greater chance of investigation/prosecution if Obama wins. Don't think that Cheney-Rove et al will go down without a figh. Obama needs margins large enough to overcome electronic voting fraud and massive voter disqualifications and anything else they can think of. On election day, if you don't have to work, stay near polls with video cameras to document any voter interference, this may be the last chance to hang onto this democracy.

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metsmets:

@carl29
It would be basic statistics if they went out and randomly sampled people from the voting electorate but they don't. They manipulate the raw data to reflect their notions of what the voting electorate looks like - so many Democrats, so many Republicans, so many people in the North West, some many people in the South etc. etc.
In fact, they are conducting three polls in one - a poll of Democrats, a poll of Republicans, and a poll of Independent voters.
If ninety plus percent of the Democrats and Republicans are voting for Obama and McCain respectively then the entire "swing" or "trend" in the polls come from the third category..Independents.
The thing that I noticed week after week was that the polls were becoming more consistent than they would be for a sample of a typical normal distribution with p=0.50.

I think the real MOE is actually much smaller than these polls indicate because you aren't using random sampling techniques. You are calling random people but the results are then adjusted to meet the norms of the pollster's mind. This must mean that you get far less variance..

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jonny87:

thanks carl 29 for the comment from rasmussen. but am i right in thinking weighting the results so they are proportional to the age, party, race makeup of the country would not be a LV model...in view of the fact that older and white citizens are more likely to vote.

what i am trying to get to the bottom of is what percentage of 18-29s and hispanics there are in rasmussens LV model.

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straight talk:

My friends, John will have to pull out of Pennsylvania, Iowa. There is no way he can catch up. If he is smart he would go to florida,ohio, virginia( is it is not to late already). It is possible for Obama to lose ohio and florida and win the white house. But since he is already up in the polls there. McCain will have to really fight just to make his lost decent. He is running at Dole type numbers state polling wise. His running mate is off message on abortion, and north korea!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@carl_29

Love the boomsarah Sunday Roundup, maybe you should right a book taking all of his quotes and predictions. You could call it "Plausible Deniablility, and where does it come from."

As far as a McCain winning strategy, maybe he needs to do the following:

1. Get more Mavericky, or Maverickly or whatever it is that he isn't doing now.

2. The McCain team needs to team up and be a team of mavericks.

3. Every once in a while I wish they would just blurt things out like Maverick and Burlap. You know to prove that they are Mavericks.

4. Keep the Maverick Hate-Wagon rolling so that every single down-ticket Republican can become embroiled in the Maverickly Race-baiting and slime of the McMaverick campaign.

5. My Friends, I think that the Mavericks need to campaign in CA, NY and maybe MA for the next 3 weeks. That would be the Maverick thing to do.

This big a lead, with this small amount of time left, with a HUGE Obama ground game. Things are going to get worse for the Maverick(s) not better. Time to put them out to pasture before they have to go to the Nov. 4 slaughter house.

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jonny87:

...take it nooones a premium member at ras

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PJ_FFM:

@metsmets

Speaking as a wannabe-sociologist, as far as I can tell this method of forming sub-samples in order to better reflect the general population by means of a totally random sample mainly corrects some methodological problems due to the way the poll is conducted. [e.g., the cell phone / landline problem or some sort of netbased problems, where you don't reach everyone you want to include in your sample, or reach someone who actually isn't a part of the general population (that is, with a net-based poll you might get someone who's not an American voter, but someone from, say, Luxembourg, who pretends to be, say, from some rural county deeeeeep in the South) you want to deduce at, or similar stuff]

This way you primarily reduce *other* than statistical errors, but as the subsamples are accordingly smaller than the complete sample, well, what you win by a closer representation of the (desired) general population, you more or less lose by the small size of the sub-samples. Give or take a few behind the point.

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carl29:

metsmets,

"It would be basic statistics if they went out and randomly sampled people from the voting electorate but they don't."

THEY DON'T? Who told you so? Some pollster, who usually get blame for doing so, just call a sample of 1,000 voters, without considering party ID or any other consideration, pure random selection. What is the problem with this? there are some portions of the electorate who vote more than others and some portions of the electorate who are more reachable than others.

Read what Rasmussen explains here:

"The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.

For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.

Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area."

I think that Gallup Registered voter is totally random, which is not the most accurate in my opinion. It's better to use the LIKELY VOTER sample, which usually benefits REPUBLICANS because those groups who support Republicans vote in greater numbers: Old, Married, Religious, White people vote more minority, young, single, non-religious people.

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Observer:

I agree that everybody is showing 6-8% lead so that is where the race is at the moment. Gallop I see now says 4-5% for likely voters.

If McCain has a good week with a modest improvement and is behind say say 2-3% in LV a week from now won't everybody be saying close race, on a knife edge and if McCain does better with undecideds anything can happen?

I agree no sign of a move to McCain over the past week. I am not forecasting, just pointing out that Obama is not over the hill and far away. Just as McCain suffered from developments in the 'real world' Obama is still vulnerable to circumstances as they develop.

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mahlers5th:

@Maddiekat

October surprise?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gA6_k3NtXZs

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thoughtful:

RCP's average is +7.3% to Obama;
Pollster.com's average is +8.3%
Last Sunday's average trackers +7.6%
Today's Average of the 5 trackers is +8.0%

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straight talk:

National polls do not matter! State polls is where Mccain problems are. There are enough conservatives to keep him close. But the cannot make up for the fact that in all of the upteen battleground states. He is only leading in two of them. Obama has 264 electoral votes safe. He just needs one. And he is leading in more than 5 of them.! FLorida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, North Carilina. Unbelievable!

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carl29:

straight talk,

I don't think he can pull out of PA. It would be a horrible PR tactic. I think that he will stay there, pretending that he's got a shot but will be looking for EV's somewhere else.

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maddiekat:

mahlers5th

It won't work skinhead!

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jonny87:

carl 29,

surely they will spend less on ads if its nots looking good...just dont tell everyone there miles behind like they did in michigan.

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carl29:

Just to put things in context,

In 2004, in the month of October up to the 11th, which is where we are right now:

Bush 48.1% Kerry 46.5%

Right now, in the month of October up to today, the 11th:

McCain 42.9% Obama 49.5%
===================================

Around this time support starts to stick. If you notice Bush was ahead by around 2% and ended up winning by 3%.

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thoughtful:

@mahlers5th

It's nothing new and garbage. Probably gains Obama support.

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thoughtful:

@straight talk

The National poll illustrates a general trend.

I am sure that the Obama Campaign has a GOTV infrastructure on the ground in the battleground states that will optimize his voter share on the day.

+7% nationally delivers between 320 and 375 EVS.

My personal bet is on 390+

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orange24:

Looks like McCain is finally doing what a whole bunch of us have said he should have done long ago - hunkering down in a 'bunker' somewhere with all of his top economic advisors and trying to come up with a tangible economic plan (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14493.html). He finally realizes that the attack ads are just putting him further behind. What he comes up with in these meetings will determine whether or not this is a landslide or a nail-biter. Obviously, he won't disclose anything before the debate. He'll want to spring it on Obama then so that he doesn't have time to vet the new economic plan - just like the last debate. I hope he comes up with something equally as lame as the last time. After all, Phil Graham ("nation of whiners") is his top economic advisor.

This thing it too close. With the lynch-mob rallies, the John Lewis statement, Palin proven a liar in abusing her power as governor - this should should be at least a steady 10-12 points and it's not. One small thing could swing this thing back the other way. It's pretty clear that the Obama cieling in this election is right around 50%. Can't give anyone a reason to swing back to McCain.

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Wow, that video really opened my eyes....

to the fact that you're a stupid racist wingnut.

The sad thing is that things like this make any legitimate criticism of Obama less credible.

It's harder to buy, "It's risky to elect Obama because he's inexperienced." when "And also he's a terrorist arab black panther communist muslim who will destroy our freedom while raping our white women while appointing Osama bin Laden as his secretary of state." is tacked on the end of it.

You guys are tanking yourselves with this kind of ****.

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wakeup:

Rashid Khalidi could shift polls...

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Ryguy:

observer

unfortunately for mccain, if history is any evidence, polls dont have that much movement this close to the election. unless there is something very bad for obama or very very good for mccain, these polls shouldnt see much movement for the remainder of this race.

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carl29:

"It's pretty clear that the Obama cieling in this election is right around 50%."

Did you know that Obama is actually doing better than previous presidential candidates?

Neither Bush nor Gore ever reached the 50% threshold in 2000:

Gallup - Bush 48 Gore 46


Battleground - Bush 45 Gore 40


Inv. Bus. Daily - Bush 47.9 Gore 46


CBS News - Bush 44 Gore 45


Zogby - Bush 46 Gore 48


ABC News/WP - Bush 48 Gore 45


CBS News/NY Times... Bush 47 Gore 42

NBC News/WSJ... Bush 47 Gore 44


Marist... Bush 49 Gore 44

Fox News... Bush 43 Gore 43


National Journal... Bush 47 Gore 40

=======================================

In which one of those polls did Bush or Gore reach the 50% watermark?


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Incumbent:

"mahlers5th:
@Maddiekat

October surprise?"
-------------------------------------

Found to be a complete lie by FactCheck.org back in August...just in case anyone is wacky enough to actually believe this nonsense:
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html

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maddiekat:

wakeup

God you dudes are boring. Say hello to Hannity and Drudge and the rest of the scum you get your info from.

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ThatMarvelousApe:

"This thing it too close. With the lynch-mob rallies, the John Lewis statement, Palin proven a liar in abusing her power as governor - this should should be at least a steady 10-12 points and it's not."

LOL! You Chicken Littles with your ever-moving goal posts. Yes, a one day result in Gallup still showing Obama up by landslide margins is cause for CONCERN! Too close! Obama should have locked up by 400 EVs by now! Terror! Fear! Sky = Falling!

This schtick got old back in May.

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boomshak:

WOW THESE LIKELY VOTERS (SHOWING ONLY 4 POINT LEAD IN ONE MODEL) SURPRISED ME:

By all accounts, McCain is running a dogsh*t campaign, and yet, if it is to be believed, he has knocked 7 points off the Obama lead within just a few days.

This race continues to confound.

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wakeup:

Woods Fund gave $75K to AAAN and Khalidi... that money went to the PLO.

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thoughtful:

@Boomshak
I see that you haven't lost any of your delusions or ability to get confused by different polling sensitivities.

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boomshak:

@thoughtful:
@straight talk

The National poll illustrates a general trend.

I am sure that the Obama Campaign has a GOTV infrastructure on the ground in the battleground states that will optimize his voter share on the day.

Just like in the early Ohio Voting you mean?

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maddiekat:

boomcrap

RV which they have done the entire year is + 7 which is the same as last Sunday. Two new LV models is O + 4 and O + 6. Perhaps you and wakeup should make a date. Your brains seem to function equally.

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wakeup:

I am an ally of Boomshak... there is something odd about this election's polling.

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Bigmike:

Gallup has moved 2 pts in M/P favor since yesterday. -1 O/B, +1 M/P

It is, I fear, too little too late. M/P has two things working against them.

First is the TIMING of the economic "crisis." If Lehman Bros and AIG melted down in May, it would be old news by now and not influencing many votes.

Second is the inept campaign Mc and his advisors have run. The grandstanding
"suspend" stunt backfired

Those two things, all in the same week took us from a virtual tie, with M/P doing better in the state polls, to O/B up somewhere between 5-10 pts (depending on which polls you believe) and about a half dozen states switching color.

It will take a miracle for M/P to pull this out, and I don't see one on the horizon.

IMHO, the only thing that would change the outcome at his point would be a terrorist attack on the US. As a conservative, would like to see M/P win. But not at that price.

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thoughtful:

@Boomshak

The early voting in Ohio continues to go very well indeed.

Last week 10,000's voters who were not already registered, did so and cast their vote at the same time.

As maddiekat Gallup last Sunday was at +7% for Obama as it is today. With regards the likely voter model, the one which is obviously more relevant is based on 2008 and not 2004.

We were hoping for some anecdotes from friday night?

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wakeup:

If the stock market stabilizes McCain has a chance. The media might stop the Great Depression chatter.

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thoughtful:

@Bigmike

The thing that bugs me about McCain is that he isn't a conservative, his latest mortgage rescue plan is the antithesis of fiscal conservatism.

so I don't understand how you and boomer can continue to support him.

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carl29:

boomshak,

One poll, boomy. That's why you end up looking pretty funny. You get so obsessed with one tree and forget about the whole forest.

These are the polls with LIKELY VOTERS:

Gallup, Obama 50% McCain 46%
Rasmussen, Obama 51% McCain 45%
Zogby, Obama 49% McCain 43%

In average...Obama 50% McCain 44.6%

Remember that Likely voters is a Republican-friendly pool.

======================================

Boomshak,

Where do you get this: "he has knocked 7 points off the Obama lead within just a few days."

It seems that you are making the mistake of comparing today's LIKELY voters numbers to previous REGISTERED voters numbers. That is like comparing Oranges to Apples. If you want to see the trend, you have to compare today's numbers among REGISTERED voters to previous numbers among REGISTERED voters.


See REGISTERED(apples) vs. REGISTERED(apples) and LIKELY(oranges) vs. LIKELY(oranges). In that case, Obama has indeed lost 4%, he went from leading by 11% to leading by 7%. Hopefully, from now on, everyday we will get those LIKELY voters numbers.

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thoughtful:

@wake up

All of us baby boomers need to look at is our 401K statement.

Even if the market got back to 11,000, it was at 14,000 a year ago.

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Luiz:

I think that the race will tighten because:
1. McCain is sending subconcious negative ads which unfortunately they are effective;
2. The bayout probably will show some effect for the time beeing.

Obama needs:
1. Be more specific on his economic policies in the next debate;
2. Close the deal in PA. I think that is not a big deal;
3. Strong focus in CO, FL, OH, VA. CO will do it. VA I think is a long shot and FL/OH unpredictable.

Bying 30 min prime time TV ad probably a smart move. He needs a large turnout and some of his voters needs a strong motivation effort.

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Bigmike:

thoughtful

You are absolutely right. McCain is NOT a conservative. But he is more conservative than Obama.

If I don't get a "perfect" candidate I should switch sides? I don't think so.

If it looks like McCain will carry my state, and there is no reason to think he won't, I may very well vote Libertarian.

But vote for a liberal yankee. Hell will freeze over first.

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maddiekat:

boomshak

I believe that you and all McCain supporters are going to crap their pants on Nov 4th when you find out how much Polsters have under estimated first time voters.

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Paul:

Another false Palin charge:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/12/obama-did-not-ask-to-delay-security-agreement-iraqi-fm-says/
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) – Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama did not urge Iraqi officials to delay a decision on a security agreement with the United States, Iraq's foreign minister told CNN on Sunday.

The statement by Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari refutes a recent published report and a statement by Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin that Obama tried to influence Iraqi politicians negotiating with the United States to score political points.

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boskop:

@what do you obamites do when he fudges on his campaign promises, all of them?

what do you do when he uses, "i'ma gonna git bin laden' as his legit war versus bush's sham war?

what you gonna do, when he cant read the face of putin across the negotiation table, just like he couldnt read the face of the jerk who lived in his hood, let alone invented programs and begged money with?

how many times does obama plead, "hey guys, i like really did the work, made my mind up and stuff, but the dog ate my homework"

hmmm, how do you get away with that crap when you have bombs loaded on boats and ready to go?

is he gonna read, "My Pet Goat" to nancy pelosi as the ukraine takes on the big black bear?

come on, with the pass he's gotten from the press and all of you lame brains, how's this guy ever gonna be held to task on anything?

oh, i know, as khameini rubs his hands together in glee that we got this dope, he's gonna checkmate him so fast it'll make your hair stand up.

but obama's had so many free passes, he figures he'll get one here too, he wont have to vote up or down, anymore, phew, what a relief...just "heck, the dog ate my homework with all my notes on it.." he'll be pissing in the white house toilet to avoid a clear decision.

how's he gonna sift through the 200 diferent opinions of his advisors and DECIDE which one when he's never decided anything on his own ever before???

he's gonna ask michelle? oh, and you hated hillary...but he's actually said that, last debate. "when i dont know something i ask michelle."

you voting in the lovely lady?
talk about double standards.

oh, he'll try the lame excuse..."it'll take a bunch of time before i can redo my homework, i mean make a decision, meanwhile you guys give me the free pass, pretty please???? for god's sake, wolf, gloria, chris, come on guys, you love me forever, right? i'm barack obama, the change meister, the leader we have been waiting for. i know stuff. honest.

the kids sing my praises, the storybooks have my big wide mocking grin, I am the deliverer! amen to me..."

Good luck, you got him and now live with him. it's not gonna be fun watching the head on collision heading our way, but at least some of us can step aside and watch the explosion.
for me, the fun stuff is watching the vertiginous descent......

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wakeup:

@ thoughtful
I know the 401K pain is real but hysteria is driving the market. If the market settles people may focus a bit more on the election... and Obama might not want this. Picture the triumvirate; Obama, Reid, Pelosi.

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Bigmike:

As I recall, the topic on this site is POLLS.

The reason I beleive it will take a miracle for M/P to win is all in the numbers. O/B has settled down at or just above 50%. So if the undecideds break 90-10 for M/P, O/B still wins. I know those numbers are PV and EV really decides the outcome. But is is very difficult to win the EV when the other side is over 50% nationally.

I suspect there will be some tightening as we get closer to election day. Buyers remorse, rooting for the underdog, that sort of thing.

McCain picking up undecideds is not enough. Unless we see O/B moving somewhere below 50 the outlook for us Cons is bleak.

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political_junki:

boskop:
"Good luck, you got him and now live with him."
So essentially you are saying McCain will be better? HE has proved to be unstabvle and there ar only two choises. And what if McCain dies? That ignorant baboon will lead the country?
We will be much happier that way right?
come on, get real.

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thoughtful:

@Bigmike

Not suggesting that you vote for Obama.

I just can't understand McCain, he appears not to have any firm positions at all, except for supporting whatever Patraeus recommends on military matters.

But no foreign policy or no domestic policy.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@boskop,
dude you seem to be a ticking time bomb with all that anger and angst. you need to get out and breathe in some fresh air. stare at a portrait of dubya or something. watch a palin campaign rally video. 'cause the way you are stewing, it's just not healthy. don't forget to exhale.

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political_junki:

", he has knocked 7 points off the Obama lead within just a few days."

you forgot your medication again ? :)
But seriously dude, you have to learn to take it easy. if you get this much hyped over pollings how are you gonna handle a liberal supreme court?
+ liberal government + liberal senate + liberal congress?
your worst days are ahead of you not behind you. try to adjust

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political_junki:

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden 49%
McCain/Palin 41%
Undec 6%

- ****Obama has his largest lead of the month among Indies. The IL Sen. now leads Indie >> by 16% -- his biggest advantage since his 17% margin in the survey completed 9/28.*****

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carl29:

Bigmike,

God Bless You !!!!

"As I recall, the topic on this site is POLLS"

This is exactly my point. Some times this bickering drives nuts :-(

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zotz:

boskop-
Your objections to Obama sound rather personal. At least Kiptin and Boom try to sound like they have real substantive objections to Obama's policies but all we get from you are emotional rants. What did the poor guy do to you? It sounds like he once stood you up on a date! LOL!!

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Bigmike:

MNLatteLiberal

and

political_junki

Seems not too long ago the angst was on the left. I saw posts on here wondering if we had collectively lost our minds, how could we be stupid enough to vote R again.

I don't worry about boom, boskop and I having worse days ahead of us. I worry that we ALL have worse days ahead of us.

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thoughtful:

@bigmike

I share in your analysis, there is so little enthusiasm for McCain out there its very difficult to see the undecided or the Obama leans breaking for McCain.

My guess is that the polls will be fairly stable through to the last debate.

McCain has that to change the game.

____________________

wakeup:

If the bear market is over and the bulls march watch the poll margins narrow as voter attention shifts.

____________________

political_junki:

@Bigmike
Agreed. every body gets a little too excited here, ofcourse our chats here dont change anything. we are just armchair activists, real ones are knocking doors! (Well except MNLatteLiberal who is a real activist as well)

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

wakeup said...
"I am an ally of Boomshak... "

Ally or sockpuppet?

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@Luiz:

"2. Close the deal in PA. I think that is not a big deal;"

I am assuming you're saying so based on polls, right?
As of today according to RCP average polls in PA he's leading by double digit
09/27 - 10/11 -- 53.6 39.8 Obama +13.8
Should it be +20 like MA,VT to close the deal?
FYI: PA is a battleground state and back to 2004 at the same period Kerry lead was razor-thin one

See:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/pa_polls.html

So while democrats shouldn't be complacent at this time it's however obvious that the EV map looks far better for them than the ones in 2004 and 2000

____________________

Bigmike:

I was a real activist once. Worked the phones, offered rides to the polls to those on the list. Hell I was elected an alternate delegate at our local caucus, got to go to the county caucus.

It was 92 and I was an alternate delegate for Bill Clinton. Even got to meet him at a rally.

He had IDEAS I agreed with. More cops on the streets, middle class tax cut. And GHWB turned me off big time. That is another, longer story.

Then his middle class tax cuts became a tax increase. Amazing how he caved to the libs in Conress.

I learned my lesson and have since stayed where I belong.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Another Nevada result out today in Nevada. Mason/Dixon Obama 47, McCain 45

Great news!

____________________

NW Patrick:

Bigmike so you belong with the largest spending and deficit increase in the history of mankind? Good choice! Intelligent!

____________________

Bigmike:

So the question is can McCain pull a rabbit out of his hat. Short of an attack on the US, what could be a game changer at this point?

If I knew that answer, I would be dialing up McCain HQ.

Based on what I have seen, they will need SOMEONES help. They sure can't run a campaign without it.

____________________

NW Patrick:

McCain should prepare to return to the Senate. He's clearly not up for the job. The better candidate is winning over independents daily.

____________________

Bigmike:

NW Patrick

I thought you weren't talking to me any more. I should have asked for that in writing.

political_junki:
The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden 49%
McCain/Palin 41%
Undec 6%

At last, O/B moving under 50%. Maybe there is hope yet!

____________________

boskop:

Yes, they are personal. personal attributes, the same stuff that was indicative of bush's mighty missteps. polls are fine, but people aren't discontinuous stories. history, history, history.

i AM angry for the rampant lack of data getting to the voters. this is the greatest ad campaign of all time.

i despise double standards and you folks are walking living breathing advocates of it. shame on you, one stolen election by bush, one stolen election by obama from hillary clinton.

why is race more toxic than sexism?

because it is systemic. if obama had the face of sarah palin, had a pastor like wright, had never revealed why she moved to chicago and for whom, had given money to her husbands business so he could get a raise, been coddled by alinksy mocko campaign dogma, had kicked back 1 million to acorn from her campaign, had sidestepped the anti war movement except to make a speech to win a lousy seat in the legistlature against a war hawk, had never had the guts to walk with sheehan, had never revealed her grades at the ivies, had been sucked up to by the press....

then you would never have entertained the remotest possibility of her stewardship. ever.

and worst of all, if obama had looked like al sharpton and spoken in his dialect instead of that bully legal stutter, you'd have ditched the fat ugly brute like yesterday's cold pizza.

so get real, this is a beauty contest and that's all. and i bet not one of you liberals, who mean to assuage your white guilt or black rage, have ever walked down a city block and handed a black man with filthy hands and smelly butt more than a dime or a quick turn of your head in disgust.

i watch obamites daily ignore the bums (except to register them and bribe them with a brownie), walk past the demented black woman with crazed eyes, but plan to vote for him because it makes them feel better to do it the clean way, without touching their skin, or talking to them.

i dare each and every one of you to spend one minute talking face to face, holding their hand...

dont give me this crap about voting for a black man because it's the right thing to do. the right thing to do is to vote for the person who has guts to lead, not to clean the slate of bigotry clean, your conscience and history with one sterilized little vote so you get to sleep at night like you are finally decent.

vote the man and deal with equality on the street. i dare you!


____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boskop

zzZZzzZZZZzzzZZZzz

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

EVERYONE!!!!! As numerous of you have pointed out, don't let the deluded fans of Palin/McCain distract you by referring to utterly inconsequential blips in McCain's support levels. He is behind nationally, and he'll likely remain so, notwithstanding his slime campaign and unless there's an (ugh) game-changing event. The real story is that McCain is being chewed up at the state level, even if you ignore the crazy state of Ohio, which is apparently filled up with enough goofy white males who care more about wild charges about Obama than they do about their disappearing jobs, pensions, homes, and health care benefits. Who cares if the deep red states are becoming more red (the main cause of "the tightening"), when Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada and maybe even North Carolina are falling further into Obama's column? Dream on, slash on, slander on my dear Palin/McCain losers. Oh, I hear McCain is cooking up yet another economic proposal -- throwing more money at the "investing class." Maybe that will be the game changer (grin)? Solid leader? Yeah, right.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

EVERYONE!!!!! As numerous of you have pointed out, don't let the deluded fans of Palin/McCain distract you by referring to utterly inconsequential blips in McCain's support levels. He is behind nationally, and he'll likely remain so, notwithstanding his slime campaign and unless there's an (ugh) game-changing event. The real story is that McCain is being chewed up at the state level, even if you ignore the crazy state of Ohio, which is apparently filled up with enough goofy white males who care more about wild charges about Obama than they do about their disappearing jobs, pensions, homes, and health care benefits. Who cares if the deep red states are becoming more red (the main cause of "the tightening"), when Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada and maybe even North Carolina are falling further into Obama's column? Dream on, slash on, slander on my dear Palin/McCain losers. Oh, I hear McCain is cooking up yet another economic proposal -- throwing more money at the "investing class." Maybe that will be the game changer (grin)? Solid leader? Yeah, right.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

I apologize for the duplicate post.

____________________

Commander_King:

Vote straight Democrat

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boskop

Lady you have got some serious problems to sort out.

____________________

Basil:

I think maddiecat is right about turnout.

Enthusiasm for Obama among young people is unlike anything I've ever seen, including the 60's anti-war movement. And Obama's organization is geared for generating turnout as much as they are geared for campaigning.

Predictions of low turnout among young Obama supporters are not credible given widespread concerns about Republican election-stealing. There's a great sense that only an Obama Tsunami can provide insurance against interference by the Republican shadow thugs. I believe that myself, by the way.

Many people aren't just voting, they're driving a stake through the undead heart of the GOP. Imagine the campaign and ultimately the election as an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer.

Is there projection and self-delusion here? Yes, but the vision is positive and hopeful, and the values are worthy. While Obama can't be everything people want him to be or believe he is (as he admits openly), it's good to put pressure on a candidate for him to be as good as he can be.

If you think projection and self-delusion aren't what all people do much of the time, and what politics is largely about, you're deluding yourself anyway. It's the negative expression of what, in a more positive sense, religion is about.

In this sense, Obama's a religious figure (as were Reagan, JFK, Eisenhower, FDR, Wilson, Lincoln, Jefferson and Washington in their ways). Obama's success as president may depend on the degree to which he can meaningfully speak from the bully pulpit.

Obama Tsunami! Aieeeee! (That's the sound of the Human Wave)


____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Basil

"Obama Tsunami! Aieeeee! (That's the sound of the Human Wave)"

Or boomshak and boskop on Nov 4th.

____________________

boskop:

thoughtful

no, friend...

you do from your pompous perch in england.

you are irresponsible in your pontifications and polls parsing. have you ever taken a black man's hand that hasnt been washed for years and helped him cross a street?

handing obama your vote is not a replacement for personal decency.

but pontificate away... as you will

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Well, since we are not going to have to confront one another in actuality, we can afford to spout our various smug and aggressive comments here. But I have to admit, among those of you who are confident in a high young voters' turnout, I have to say I'm skeptical. As an old fart, I have to tell you I've seen these claims of a large youth vote many times, and they've virtually always been a bust. But for those of you who believe in the young ones coming out in droves to vote for Obama, let me say, "From your mouths to god's ear." We shall see. I suffer as well as a Cub fan who knows that something will happen to produce disaster for my team, and despite all the data, evidence, and logic and the force of current events, I can't help but feel uneasy.

____________________

Bigmike:

Basil

The Dems tout the youth vote every election. Millions of young people, many first time voters, are going to move things the Dem way.

And it never happens. Why is it different this time?

Driving a stake in the GOP heart. I doubt it. Dems came back from a 49-1 landslide in 84. Reps will be back.

____________________

zotz:

"and i bet not one of you liberals, who mean to assuage your white guilt or black rage, have ever walked down a city block and handed a black man with filthy hands and smelly butt more than a dime or a quick turn of your head in disgust."

What a mental case! The principal of the school I taught at was black! Boskop, the only reason I read your posts is my morbid curiosity. Please get professional help!
Like NOW!!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Of course Boskop has something personal against Obama. He left South Africa just to get away from kaffir politicians.

Now he finds one going to lead the country he left for!

http://www.dothomes.co.za/buy/boskop--potchefstroom

bos...I heard there's a position opened up in Austria yesterday.

____________________

Bigmike:

OK, Boris is better with words than I am.

I should have just said "what Boris said."

____________________

Viperlord:

Yes, the Repubs will certainly be back eventually. It's a never ending cycle. Hopefully the Republicans who will take back the government sometime in the future are nothing like the joke of a party we are confronted with today.

____________________

political_junki:

"and i bet not one of you liberals, who mean to assuage your white guilt or black rage"

Oh man! I feel so relieved that boskop supports McCain. If s/he was supporting Obama I might have reconsidered. I wouldnt be on the same side as s/he...
BigMike, Boom, enjoy your company :)

____________________

Bigmike:

Gotta run gang, it's been fun.

Mrs Bigmike is complaining we are low on ammo for the 30-30. If momma aint happy, no one is.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@boskop

You are right about those folks who are voting for Obama out of some sense that he's an exciting brand of black politician, without thinking about his ideas. I'm supporting him because his programs, including his health care program (much less radical than Hillary's), his economic programs, and his views regarding the future emerging industries are more sensible. I am very concerned about McCain's approach to policy making which he comes at as if he's engaging in some kind aerial acrobatics. He's shown me to be inclined to take horrific chances, usually at the expense of other people's children. His proposals are much more likely to blow budgets and inflate our national debt. I support Obama for the same reason that many thinking conservatives like Brooks and Will and many others who have deep reservations for McCain. I am supporting Obama for many of the reasons that Bill Buckley's son is. So while there are a few guilt-ridden types out there, quit the name-calling and figure out how to spend the next few years forging a view of the world and public policy, from a conservative perspective, that makes sense and isn't rooted in some 18th century view of village capitalism. Quit the name-calling and the sticking out of your tongue and wagging fingers. Grow up. Get some class.

____________________

Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

Boskop,

Your handle does not befit you. Obama has not control over his race or his name. he is not a "street person" and is one of the most intelligent and disciplined people alive today.

He is smarter than you and garners more respect in 1 minute than you will in your entire lifetime.
My question to you is: what have *you* done?

____________________

Basil:

@kerrchdavis

No, that's "Aaaaaaaaagh!" followed by an eerie silence. Then clouds lift, the sky brightens, animals come out of hiding and birds sing again.

After that, it's back to work.

"Before enlightenment: chop wood, carry water. After enlightenment: go solar, carry water." ;-)

____________________

Basil:

Sorry. I left out the big party scene.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Basil

lol! WHy cant it be Nov 4th yet damn it??

____________________

maddiekat:

boskop

Was that you holding the monkey at the McCain rally the other day?

____________________

johncoz:

@masselo:

"if they only interview 1200 voters out of millions -- polls cant be reliable then -- now i really dont believe in polls"

Don't think that anyone actually answered your question directly. The accuracy of a poll (as long as the sample is truly random) is given by the sample size only, not the size of the population being sampled.

That is why the margin of error in a poll, for a 95% confidence interval, is given by the formula 0.98 / square root(sample size) for a 50/50 result.

The problem is ensuring that the sample is truly random. This is because different sub-groups are not equally accessible for any given survey methodology. Pollsters therefore weight their samples based on known demographies. How they do this weighting (the "voter model") is what determines the house effect for a pollster.

One way to cancel out house effects is to aggregate polls. How this aggregation is done, in turn, determines the differences in the trend estimates between RCP, Pollster and 538.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Big Mike- Actually Younger Voters increased by 11% in 2004. And they were overwhelmingly Democrats. And a similar major increase was seen in the 2006 midterm elections vs. the 2002 versions.

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS-Midterm06.pdf

Even more interesting was that youth participation may have been 30-40% higher in the Democratic primary elections vs. the previous set. There was a clear DROP in participation by young people in the Republican primaries from the last contested ones in 2000 however.

http://www.wiretapmag.org/stories/20401

So if the trend continues (and Obama would likely exceed the trend given his appeal to younger voters as evidenced by the primary) then the turnout would likely be at least 11% more than 2004. And that participation level was obscured because all groups turned out in higher numbers.

But here's the push. The other age cohorts (particularly the over 65 group) are reaching their limits of participation. It's much harder getting that last 10% out since there are so many fewer of them. The youth vote, because of previous UNDER participation is a wide open opportunity....both in registration...and in GOTV.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@maddiekat

"boskop

Was that you holding the monkey at the McCain rally the other day?"

roflmao! no, that guy was actually ashamed of himself.

____________________

thoughtful:

@boskop

I have no idea how to help you further. Take it easy


____________________

maddiekat:

This is very interest and certainly not surprising.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2008/10/attack-blowback.html

____________________

cinnamonape:

And what is amazing is that those who are attacking Obama for his involvement in creating a better urban community in Chicago from the devastation that existed there in the 1980's are now trying to make it appear that THEY care more for blacks (and looking at Boskops disgusting discription of those who are poor and homeless its no surprise).

Boskop - have you actually been down to a "Loaves and Fishes" or to a homeless shelter and volunteered? Have you done any work with jobless Vets? I bet if you did you'd find that 90% of the people there (perhaps more) are supporting Obama. They are the ones registering homeless to vote, to find work, to clean up their lives, to get straight. They aren't the ones creating walled-communities to hide in. Look at the voting records. People who live in Urban areas (where the poor and homeless are most frequently found) vote Democratic...those in the walled communities that don't want to be exposed to the "rabble"...they overwhelmingly vote Republican.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

BigMike,
you seem like a reasonable guy, so I will let you in on little secret: I am no activist. I am just a regular citizen who has been fed up with what the religious right is doing to the country I love for the last 8 years.

BigMike, I voted for Reagan. I did. And I am not ashamed to admit it. Ronnie was a great president because the times were simpler then: we had a nice shiny enemy, the evil empire, and he was unabashedly against them. And he presented a stronger deterrent to them. That's why I voted for him.

I didn't like his social agenda. I never believed in the trickle down economics, and I was against him on choice and religion in general. But at least Ronnie kept that stuff off the platform, didn't wear it on his lapel like dubya.

Having said that, I think in today's more complex world with multiple and asymmetric enemies, even without the economic crisis brought about by the fruition of Ronnie's policies, he would have been lost. And those lemmings in the GOP who want to resurrect Reagan at any cost, are failing to realize just how much the world has changed and that they are in fact left without any blueprint on the future. That they need to improvise and be quick studies and quick on their feet. And they, esp. Palin are anything but.

I voted Republicans before Clinton. And that party doesn't exist any more. That party was destroyed by Karl Rove, dubya and Co back in South Carolina in 2000. My values have not changed one bit. I am a socially liberal, fiscally conservative guy. And there was nobody even close to either Hillary or Obama in the GOP field.

If you want more, I can give you more, but I think for now that's enough.

____________________

boomshak:

@maddiekat:

"This is very interest and certainly not surprising."

Of course, the MSM is doing EVERYTHING in their power to stop McCain from reminding America of Obama' tortured passed.

They have gone so far as to suggest that if McCain brings up ANY of Obama's former associations, he is guilty of racism and encitement to riot.

THE TRUTH:
The polls are tightening with Gallup's Daily Tracking down to just +4 when he follows the traditional "likely voter" model. That is a huge move down from +11 a few days ago.

Obama makes people nervous. The man makes big promises with no track record to compare his lofty rhetoric to.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Big Mike- Actually Younger Voters increased by 11% in 2004. And they were overwhelmingly Democrats. And a similar major increase was seen in the 2006 midterm elections vs. the 2002 versions.

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS-Midterm06.pdf

Even more interesting was that youth participation may have been 30-40% higher in the Democratic primary elections vs. the previous set. There was a clear DROP in participation by young people in the Republican primaries from the last contested ones in 2000 however.

http://www.wiretapmag.org/stories/20401

So if the trend continues (and Obama would likely exceed the trend given his appeal to younger voters as evidenced by the primary) then the turnout would likely be at least 11% more than 2004. And that participation level was obscured because all groups turned out in higher numbers.

But here's the push. The other age cohorts (particularly the over 65 group) are reaching their limits of participation. It's much harder getting that last 10% out since there are so many fewer of them. The youth vote, because of previous UNDER participation is a wide open opportunity....both in registration...and in GOTV.

____________________

boomshak:

DON'T BRAG SO MUCH ABOUT "DEMOCRAT REGISTRATION ADVANCES...

When we keep finding out that likely MILLIONS of those new voters are ACORN frauds.

You need only look to the dismal Democrat showing at the early OHIO voting to realize the Obama "ground game" isn't all it claims to be.

NEW SPECIFIC PROPOSALS:
McCain will be releasing a raft of new economic proposals at the debate. I doubt Obama will be offering any.

____________________

Commander_King:

Boomshak.....stfu

____________________

maddiekat:

For any republican to complain about voter fraud is well, a fraud!

____________________

Viperlord:

He's still spewing his liberal media bull**** as well, though that has been debunked a bazillion times. I could grab the link again but he'll just ignore it again.

____________________

Viperlord:
____________________

maddiekat:

Boomshak

Your Gallup talk is insane. RVs are the same as last Sunday, and LV is like every other daily tracker. By the way boomcrap 6% is a frigen landslide!!

____________________

johncoz:

@boom
"McCain will be releasing a raft of new economic proposals at the debate. I doubt Obama will be offering any."

He's locked up today with his advisers trying to decide between a number of back-of-the-envelope schemes they have cooked up over the past couple of days.

You can bet you're bottom dollar that decisions will be made on the basis of electoral appeal rather than best policy.

In any case, we all know McCain is an economic illiterate, and this preposterous farce is just one more piece of evidence.

____________________

cinnamonape:

Maddiekat: Interesting poll. What I found amazing was the disparity between Republican perceptions and those of Independents and Democrats.

Obama is mainly: Addressing issues/Attacking opponent
Democrats 87% 12%
Independents 68% 26%
Republicans 46% 44%

McCain is mainly: Addressing issues/ Attacking opponent
Democrats 16% 80%
Independents 33% 61%
Republicans 62% 32%

I think the most interesting and revealing contrast is the fact that while Republicans think Obama is attacking McCain (44%) they think McCain is not attacking Obama but dealing with "issues" (62%).

Contrast that with the independents who think that Obama is attacking McCain (26%) vs. McCain dealing with the issues (33%) with 61% thinking the latter is wasting his time with personal attacks.

There is a very different psychological set revealed here. The Republicans really do feel that the "attacks" deal with "their issues". But what that means is that they have almost completely lost the Independents as to what are real issues.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

boomshak,

stfu. you're losing. you will lose. and you know it. so you're mad. Sure, if it helps you sleep better at night, Obama's lead went from 11 to 4. He's collapsing. Crumbling. It's all over for him really. Pretty soon his poll numbers will be subterranean, -4 million percent!

Can't wait for McCain's economic proposals tomorrow! Only 3 weeks late!! :) He needed a few naps in between. But now he's raring to go! He's goin to kick Obama's butt in the last debate! Those first two were just warmups of course.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"You need only look to the dismal Democrat showing at the early OHIO voting to realize the Obama "ground game" isn't all it claims to be."

Boomshak...you are aware that the Ohio "same day voting" required the person to be registered on the same day AT an official polling station. If the people were registered BEFOREHAND they would not be "same day voters". They got 4000 of those.

Given the amounts of individuals registered previously that's a fairly substantial number. It's an indication of how many voters are being registered daily in Ohio..but because many people were not able to go to the polling station to vote (and these were far fewer than the precincts that will be available on voting day) it's only a hint.

In addition there will be many who submit in-person and absentee ballots who were previously registered.

____________________

CAlefty:

As bad as the news for McCain seems to be, the reality is worse. Bear in mind that while you're reading this post, millions of people are actually voting. By election day about 1/3 of the electorate will already have voted. So the size of the pool of available "undecideds" goes down every day.

To change the game McCain has to scoop up a bigger share of a shrinking pie. Looking at movements in the polls and extrapolating forwards doesn't capture this phenomenon. Every day that the race stays stable is an electoral defeat for him.

____________________

slinky:

It's fine for McC to offer some new economic ideas at the debate. In fact, on a program I watched when I was traveling through Washington this week, where Mcloughlin was moderating, he and Zuckerman were most interested in McC's scheme to return money to mortgage holders who couldn't pay. So, I applaud any ideas that McC has. Maybe they will be done, or altered... Any ideas are good ideas.

Note that the original of idea of buying the bad debt, the one that Volcker first suggested in a WSJ op-ed is now being abandoned (pretty much).

It's clear that the bank equity problem is so large that you can't recapitalize the banks by buying the mortgages at any sort of a discount, ergo, equity must be purchased.

So, lots of preferred stock will be in the hands of the American taxpayers later this month, or early next.

Any ideas short of the government takeover of all the banks is a good idea. That and loan guarantees are all these brilliant IMF stewards have come up with. Maybe McC can do better. Obama doesn't want to take the chance.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"NEW SPECIFIC PROPOSALS:
McCain will be releasing a raft of new economic proposals at the debate. I doubt Obama will be offering any."

Yep...a "raft" of new proposals. Just like his brilliant idea to have the US government buy up ALL the problem mortgages from the banks and financial houses at face value. When the economists looked at the "plan" they found that it would likely leave taxpayers bailing out the lenders for billions, leaving the taxpayer with a vast bureaucracy needed to manage and sell off the mortgages over decades. And if the mortgage holder falls delinquent then the taxpayer itself will be caught out.

And Obama has already addressed the housing and financial crisis with a number of steps that would both assure homeowners the ability to renegotiate their mortgages, using an already established bankruptcy court system that would encourage continued tenancy and market stability.

____________________

slinky:

But the bankers are still against using the bankruptcy courts that way. So, unless something pretty complicated wandered into the final rescue bill (I didn't read the final version -- it was hundreds of pages, anyhow, mostly focused on protections for buying up the debst, which they aren't going to do), I don't think that's there. Yes, I understand there are provisions in the bill for renegotiating existing conforming mortgages where properly values may have fallen below mortgage value, or where the balloon payments are still too much for the borrower to bear, but I don't think that deals with the vast majority of the debt, which is not conforming.

____________________

slinky:

I think it's a difficult pickle. I know Obama doesn't want to be wrong in making economic offerings, but, the timing of this crisis is simply awkward, and Obama has the best economists advising him. McC is trying to do something and not just stand there. And, frankly, his first stab at doing something made him sound like a Democrat! Suggesting that mortgage holders, and not banks, should be bailed out, does not come from the traditional Republican ballywick.

____________________

cinnamonape:

I also recall that when McCain suggested his "Mortgage Buy Up" Plan it was one of the first time that those in his "base" actually flipped out. It was a huge socialistic venture according to them...to buy up all the distressed mortgages from the banks and lenders at "face value" (not even mark-to-marketand certainly not the "fire sale" value).

Many economists wondered whether McCain actually understood what he was suggesting. For one thing, it wasn't really his idea. It was already included in the broad authority granted to Paulson...but most wondered why he would use a meat-cleaver, give the banks a huge deal by clearing their books of these bad debts at terrible rates, and create a vast Federal bureaucracy to handle them.

And I find the idea that the Federal government will take on equity in banks or other private establishments without getting some regulatory or VOTING shareholder control absurd. You're simply pumping money into a corporation that failed to manage its investors funds already. The Federal government must have at least some say in the management (including firing incompetent managers and controlling compensation levels and "golden parachutes").

____________________

cinnamonape:

"But the bankers are still against using the bankruptcy courts that way."

Of course they are. The banks simply want a bail-out, no regulation, and release of their bad debts at "face value". A bankruptcy judge would, of course, adjudge what the capability of the principle homeowner could pay and renegotiate a payment plan, perhaps looking at current "fire sale" values in the area. The banks would not like this.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

To my blogopals:

A national poll indicating public sees McCain as the attack dog and Obama as the one sticking to the issues. By the way, even about 50% of the GOP identifiers see it that way. Of course, it's all because of the liberal and biased mainstream media, not because of the disgusting campaign that the Palin/McCain team is conducting. Surrrree it is. Check it out:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2008/10/attack-blowback.html

____________________

maddiekat:

Another interesting article. I think the blow back is just beginning!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/republican-leaders-break-ranks--with-mccain-959301.html

____________________

slinky:

Yeah, well, this is a huge economic mess and it will dominate the Obama presidency, and if, god forbid, we end up with McCain/Pailin, it will probably stretch well into the next decade, since they don't know the first thing about the markets or finance. I would be especially interested in their grades (McCain and Palin's grades) in micro and macro economics, and whether they ever took any elective courses in econ. (Hint: I did).

____________________

boomshak:

AMAZING NEW INFORMATION! WILLIAM AYERS QUITE POSSIBLY 'GHOST-WROTE' OBAMA'S "DREAMS FROM MY FATHER"...

There are just too many coincidences as to be meaningless. Please consider:

Investigative reporter Jack Cashill has noted some intriguing coincidences between Sen. Obama's 1995 autobiography, "Dreams From My Father," and Mr. Ayers' 2001 book, "Fugitive Days," for which Sen. Obama wrote a dust-jacket blurb. Both books have the same lyrical style and are filled with nautical imagery, which would come naturally to Mr. Ayers, who spent a year as a merchant seaman, but which appear nowhere else in Mr. Obama's writing.

from "Fugitive Days" and from "Dreams From My Father" both scored 54 on reading ease and a 12th-grade reading level on the Flesch Reading Ease Score, Mr. Cashill found. Scores can range from 0 to 121. Excerpts from "Fugitive Days" averaged 23.13 words a sentence. "Dreams" averaged 23.36 words a sentence. Excerpts from Sen. Obama's second book, "The Audacity of Hope," average 29 words per sentence, and a ninth-grade reading level, Mr. Cashill said.

In "Dreams From My Father," Mr. Obama writes fondly of "Frank," a mentor while he was growing up in Hawaii. "Frank" was Frank Marshall Davis, a member of the Communist Party USA, and who was on the FBI's list of subversives."

Here is an entire article about it:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08286/919158-373.stm

____________________

zotz:

"When we keep finding out that likely MILLIONS of those new voters are ACORN frauds."

Millions? Why not billions?!! Boom, I keep tellin' ya ya can't just pull stats outa yer butt and expect all of us to bow down and worship it like a statue of the goddam virgin mary!

____________________

mirrorball:

Wow. I mean, wow.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/palin-makes-tro.html

"Well, I’m very very pleased to be cleared of any legal wrongdoing," Palin said, "any hint of any kind of unethical activity there. Very pleased to be cleared of any of that."

____________________

cinnamonape:

JohnCos- If you are still here. Would the aggregation of polls reduce the MOE around the average (as sample sizes would necessarily increase) or would they remain a function of the individual polls that make up the aggregate?

Also do you have an issue of rolling polls using MOE's that are necessarily "recounts" of days already sampled and counted, rather than the single MOE of the final, unreported day. I have some problems in treating these three day "rolling polls" as independent samples, when in fact they are merely one independent sampling tacked on to older defined samples.

____________________

boomshak:

@zotz:

Yes, ACORN is squeaky clean. You just go on believing that.

BTW, how do you feel about Obama's lead to being down to +4 among likely voters on Gallup? If these stories of Obama's scary associations are having no effect, why has he lost 7 points of Gallup in just a few days?

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Boomshak

You are incredibly funny. I am sure that this is going out next on the right wing talk show echo chamber. Now I know you guys have given up. I cannot think of anything more pathetic and ridiculous than this.

____________________

boomshak:

THE OCTOBER SURPRISE: ISRAEL TO ATTACK IRANIAN NUCLEAR FACILITIES:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4926251.ece

Warning signs of an Israeli strike on Iran

Some key decision makers in Israel fear that unless they attack Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in the next few months, while George W Bush is still president, there will not be another period when they can rely on the United States as being anywhere near as supportive in the aftermath of a unilateral attack.

In the past 40 years there have been few occasions when I have been more concerned about a specific conflict escalating to involve, economically, the whole world. We are watching a disinformation exercise involving a number of intelligence services. Reality is becoming ever harder to disentangle.

Last month a story in The Guardian claimed that on May 14 Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, in a meeting with Bush, had asked for a green light to attack Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. We were told that Bush refused. He believed Iran would see the United States as being behind any such assault and Americans would come under renewed attack in Iraq and Afghanistan. Shipping in the Gulf would be vulnerable. We were told that the source of the story was a European head of government and “his” officials – as if to exclude Angela Merkel and Germany. It is, however, improbable that Israel abandoned its option to take unilateral action.

Three weeks later the Israeli military conducted an exercise over the Mediterranean to demonstrate to the United States as well as Iran that it could attack. More recently there have been a number of stories raising concern about what is happening in Iran. One said Iran’s first nuclear electricity generating plant would go critical in December and thereafter any air attack would become impossible since it would trigger a nuclear explosion. Then we were told that a US radar system had been deployed in Israel with US personnel to strengthen Israel’s defence against Iranian airstrikes. There was also an interview with Olmert where he dismissed as “megalomania” any thought that Israel should attack Iran. He appeared to be trying to disrupt the Israeli coalition negotiations.

Finally, on Friday, The New York Times revealed that in February an IAEA inspector had talked of experiments in Iran that were “not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon”. Iran denied the claim.

Before the Israeli negotiations got under way, Ehud Barak, the Labour leader, spoke first to Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the Likud opposition party, rather than to Tzipi Livni, the newly elected leader of Kadima. This indicated that Barak was interested in an all-party coalition, presumably believing that a Palestinian settlement is not yet achievable and that Israel needs maximum unity to deal with a world transfixed by the economic crisis and resigned to Iran becoming a nuclear weapon state.

If Israel were to attack Iran, one Iranian response would be to block the Strait of Hormuz. On September 16 Iran said its Revolutionary Guards would defend the Gulf waters. In the narrow strait just one oil tanker sunk would halt shipping for months. Insurance cover would be refused and owners would fear the risks of sailing even if the US navy cleared mines.

The Revolutionary Guards are committed to a war against Israel and prepared, in the process, to take on the rest of the world. They have good equipment and operate from the land, sea and air. They will be suicide soldiers, seamen and airmen. If Iran is attacked, Russia and China will supply it with arms.

The circumstances surrounding Georgia’s decision to attack South Ossetia are worth remembering. The Georgian president was advised by Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, not to attack but there were powerful voices in Washington that, by a nod and a wink, were encouraging action, so the Georgian government felt confident in going ahead.

Following an Israeli attack and Iranian countermeasures, the American military would be bound to follow Bush’s orders. The president-designate or, if before the election, the two candidates, would be wary of criticising him. It is imperative that voices are raised in America and Europe to warn Israel off unilateral action against Iran. The experience of Georgia has given an amber, if not a green, light to Israel and only Bush can switch that to red.

Bush’s legacy would be best served by taking dramatic diplomatic action to prevent a war with Iran. He should publicly warn Israel that the United States will use its air power to prevent it bombing Iran, while announcing that he is sending Rice to Tehran to start negotiating a grand bargain whereby all sanctions would be lifted if Iran forgoes the nuclear weapons option. He could indicate that the negotiations would not continue indefinitely, but they would give his successor, as president, time to consider all the options, military and economic. It would also allow time for Israel either to negotiate a coalition to last until 2010 or to hold elections. It would replace the present multilateral negotiations, which are stalled with Russia and China unwilling to move on strong economic sanctions. Above all, it would be a last act of real statesmanship from Bush who is otherwise destined to end his term a miserable failure.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

ACORN is apparently not squeaky clean. Clearly they've messed up. Let's all concede that. So now what is the point? If any of this effort to tar someone or my hero Barack Hussein Obama because they've had any kind of dealing with an organization that has messed up, then let's bring in the Nazis, haters, anti-semites, and anti-Catholics that have embraced the Palin/McCain team. As an Obama supporter, I've got no problem saying that if ACORN has misbehaved they oughtta pay the price. Now what's next?

____________________

carl29:

"why has he lost 7 points of Gallup in just a few days?"

What 7 points? I suppose you are basing your numbers on Gallup Tracking. However, you are mixing RV and LV, apples and oranges.

Obama was up by 11% among RV and now is up by 7% among RV. Indeed Obama has lost 4% among RV. However, we don't know how things stood among LV a week ago in Gallup tracking because gallup starting publishing those numbers today. So, no way to compare if he has indeed lost ground among those voters as well.

____________________

maddiekat:

This will get plenty of play tomorrow. "Whip his butt". McCain either doesn't want to win or he is out of touch.


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/12/mccain-says-hell-whip-obamas-you-know-what-at-debate/

____________________

boomshak:

@Boris_Dieter:

So then you don't find it odd that both Ayers' and Obama's books have:

1. The same style.
2. The same nautical references (Obama never at sea).
2. The exact same 12th-grade reading level and score.
3. Almost exactly the same average words per sentence.

Whereas "Audacity of Hope" reads at a 9th grade level with many more words per sentence?

That doesn't seem too coincidental to you?

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

An Israeli attack ain't happening, because they don't have the capacity to take out the Iranian nuclear program with an air-strike. If they could, they'd have done it a while ago. If they try now, they'll be condemned by the entire world, be in a war, and have no guarantee that they've significantly affected the Iranian program. Iran has hardened all their sites, and American, European, and Israeli intelligence has indicated that only a ground assault and conventional warm and full-blown occupation of the country could lead to the destruction of the nuclear program. Rumors of an imminent Israeli strike have been floated periodically now for several years. Ain't gonna happen, even though, I must confess, I wish the Israelis could do it successfully.

____________________

carl29:

maddiekat,

I don't think that at this point anybody is "surprised" as to how disrespectful McCain has being towards Obama. First debate: McCain wouldn't even look at Obama. Second debate: McCain calls Obama "that one."

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Dear Boomshak (breathing deeply and trying to be polite), I am sure that the appropriate experts are taking this "evidence" of plagiarism and poring over it. No, I find your obsession with this to be strange. But I am sure we'll see. I am certain as well that your heroine Palin and hero McCain will have their agents go over the topic seriously and if they've got the goods on my hero Obama, they'll let loose with it.

____________________

maddiekat:

boomshak

Just in case you do not think it will get play tomorrow. Just below is from Fox Snooze.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/12/mccain-vows-whip-obamas-know-final-debate/

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Boomshak, I guess the alleged offense isn't plagiarism, but some kind of taking of credit for other work. whatever, I think you're being silly.

____________________

political_junki:

@boomshak:
you are still talking about ayres, lol.
even if they were best buddies i dont think anybody but people who already vote for mccain would have cared, atleast not the independents.

Earlier you claimed Obama has lost points but look what has happened since the last week that that Baboon of a VP started the Ayres attacks, this is what happened:

From today:
------------------------------------------
The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden 49%
McCain/Palin 41%
Undec 6%

- Obama has his largest lead of the month among Indies. The IL Sen. now leads Indie LVs by 16% -- his biggest advantage since his 17% margin in the survey completed 9/28.
--------------------------------------------

that is why even McShame dropped it :)))

BOOM: GET READY: LIBERAL SUPREME COURT!

____________________

boomshak:

IS OBAMA A US CITIZEN BY BIRTH?

He has to be in order to run for POTUS, but he won't present his Birth Certificate other than an "image" of it on his website.

There's this:

"Obama still faces a legal challenge to his constitutional eligibility to be president. A lawsuit, Berg v. Obama, brought by Philip J. Berg, a Philadelphia attorney, alleges Obama is not eligible to be president.

Instead of producing records proving Obama is a natural born citizen, Obama and the Democratic National Committee have filed a motion seeking a protective order to block production of documents until a motion to dismiss is the law suit is ruled on by the court. Obama and the Democratic National Committee also claim attorney Berg has no standing - has no right - to bring the lawsuit.

What is it that Obama and the Democratic National Committee are trying to hide? Why not just produce documents that prove Obama's citizenship and make the lawsuit go away?"

SO WHAT?:
So if Obama's Birth Certificate does prove his citizenship, why not simply produce it? Why fight it in court? What are they hiding and why?

P.S., I would think that some governmental agency, like the FBI would require this of any Presidential Candidate anyway. You mean, we don't even check this stuff?

I can't get a SS Card without a birth certificate, but I can become POTUS without one? Huh?

____________________

carl29:

boomshak is the greatest probe, firsthand, that the right is desperate, just craziness :-)!!!!

____________________

political_junki:

BOOM:
Why would he provide his Birth Certificate and ruin all the fun for us? If he had we wouldnt havnt had the fun of reading your last hillarious message!

BOOM: GET READY: LIBERAL SUPREME COURT!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Well, Boomshak's last few entries have made me decide it's time to go do something else. I have to say, he's left me speechless, and so, adieu my friends. I'll leave you to fight with the erratic Boomshak and his allies.

____________________

Viperlord:

Obama has already provided his birth certificate, and Factcheck backed him up on that, so take your crap elsewhere boomfail.

____________________

slinky:

Republicans hate new voters. They have made every effort imaginable to stop new registrations unless it's from lilly white neighborhoods where median incomes are above 250K.

ACORN registers poor people (Repubs read that Democrats). Repubs therefore hate ACORN. Not only do they hate ACORN's registration drives, they hate everything ACORN does (community organizing, welfare rights counseling, block patrols, advocates for the community with local police etc.). There is nothing that ACORN does that Republicans like.

ACORN pays its workers a productivity benefit (a small increment) over minimum wage when they reach certain voter registration thresholds and other community organizing milestones.

Repubs. hate this because, it is the use of capitalism! for the public good!

Repubs. hate the public good. They always ask questions like: Whose good? What public? How do we know its good? (ad nauseum).

The point is that even if ACORN were pristine (which it is not; try to remember the neighborhoods it is operating in, and the people it is operating with...), the Repubs. would still hate ACORN.

Face it, the Repubs. hate people. They only like patricians, and a few others of their kind. Period. Oh, well, they'll tolerate some black conservatives, but not at their supper clubs. It hasn't changed that much...

____________________

slinky:

Iran has already said that it will not negotiate its right to enrich, period. They will not retract.

____________________

political_junki:

Boris_Dieter:
I stopped fighting him long time ago. I am just having fun with him. Admittedly some part of it is a little sadistic, enjoying seeing him toss and turn trying to pretend every vote with Obama +8 is bad news for Obama

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

So, McShame's big economic plan is another tax break for the rich in the form of an investment tax credit?? And this helps the middle class who have lost trillions of dollars during the last year in their 401k's HOW??? This will no doubt solve the housing crisis! (sarcasm) Well, it looks like he certainly shored up the population making over $250,000 per year with this one. PFFFFFFFTTTTTT
Brings new meaning to "old fart."

Three more weeks, my friends!

Landslide Baby Landslide

____________________

slinky:

I mention Iran because, although BO gave a song and dance about what he would do about it at the last debate, I doubt international pressure will have any effect.

I therefore predict that the Iran missile crisis will be the first international crisis of BO's Presidency. (God forbid McC/Palin).

Or maybe Pakistan...

from a Randy Newman song:

Boom goes London, Boom Paree, more room for you, more room for me, and every city the
whole world round, will just be another
American Town!

They all hate us, anyhow.

So, just drop the big one now.

Yes, just drop the big one now.

____________________

Bigmike:

BOOMFAIL

What constitutes a landslide?

____________________

political_junki:

@BigMike:
330 EV+

____________________

slinky:

Yeah, I saw that rather stoic idea of McC's earlier today or yesterday.

Let's hope he comes up with a better idea.

You know, you can never tell where crisis-solving ideas are gonna come from...

Really, somehow, Obama should propose a central repository for economic crisis solving ideas, collect them, and then try to sort through them to see if there's anything novel out there.

Just an idea....

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

it has been my experience that when boomshack gets this agitated and upset, he stops reading the responses. he is too busy cutting and pasting the talking points, a windup toy that he is.

boom, come back to us, let's discuss. i'll talk to you about anything, even ayers. even about how you faked his birth certificate. just don't do anything rash. we need ya here!

____________________

Pat:

@boomshak:

If Israel attacks Iran now, the world markets would collapse. Israel knows that. I don't think they want to be responsible for the biggest economic disaster the world has experienced.

Also, Jews are heavily involved in the financial sector. Any rash move by Israel would end up hurting Jews big time.

Too bad for you and McShame that we are in the middle of a financial crisis. Your dream will not come true this time.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Agreed, but it will be more than that. My prediction is 375. Take Intrade's map and throw in Indiana. 500,000 newly registered voters aren't included in any of their polls!

Obama will bring along a whole lot of fresh Dems with him in the House and Senate as well, my friends.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

roflmao! We're still talking about Ayres? I hope they keep it up. With the economy tanking, this strategy has been a complete gem.

Pathetic. Obama is going to win this election in a landslide. He will carry Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and North Carolina.

and I am STILL waiting for this election to be tied by last Sunday. When you predict something THAT stupid, you forfeit the right to ever have anyone take you seriously again.

what a joke.

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE

____________________

Bigmike:

political_junki

60% of the EV is a landslide? Who's definition is that?

I might call it a mandate, but not a landslide.

By your reasoning, Clinton won by a landslide in 92. He had 370 EV and 43% PV. So did he win by a landslide but not have a mandate? I would think the threshold for a mandate is lower than a landslide.

____________________

orange24:

Feel free to keep crowing about gaining a point or two in the nationals. I've said for a long time that I think Obama has nearly reached his cieling on this election, so the only thing that can happen is a tightening of the race. So, you keep your eye on that. Meanwhile, A couple of the reddest states in the union - Montana and Georgia - are not tossups. Throw in VA just about turning blue with most polls having Obama up 7 points or more. Throw in NC which by all accounts is a statistical dead heat. Throw in Nevada - another statistical dead heat. Finally, toss CO in there too - where Obama's lead is increasing with every new McCain attack ad while Obama continues to take the high road. Just for fun, put OH as a statistical tie and FL with Obama leads anywhere from 5-10 points. Remember, with comfortable leads in states that will already net him 267 EV, all he needs to do is win ONE of those. But, you go ahead and keep crowing about those Gallup poll gains.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@bigmike

I don't think there necessarily is a definition for "landslide" in this case.

Its when you look at the final results and go, sheesh, thats a blow out. In the case of presidential elections, most people seem to think it is around 330+ EVs or a 6 or 7 percent win in the PV.

However, it varies from person to person the same way everyone's interpretation of a "convincing win" in sports may be different.

whatever the case, we're really just arguing semantics here. If Obama wins by over 180 Evs, you can call it whatever you want.

____________________

marctx:

I only clicked on my phone to check the news a couple times this weekend. It all looked bad for McCain.

Obama's 50% average is like him being on our 20 yard line. I don't know how McCain can stop him for scoring the winning run.

The only bright side is 50% is only about 2 points ahead of his summer average. It would take a miracle for him to shave like three point then get most of the undecideds. I don't see it at this point. If it tightens maybe.

____________________

political_junki:

@Bigmike:
That is my definition. You dont like it dont agree with it. It is very subjective. Obama wins by 330+ I will consider it a landslide, you might not, it is not written in the stone

____________________

political_junki:

@orange24:
Right on the nails head!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

If Obama wins 380 evs, you can call it a "squeaker" for all I care

____________________

Bigmike:

kerrchdavis

It is just semantics. But lets face it, no one wants to be on the losing side in a landslide.

I suppose after 8 frustrating years I should expect you libs to have a little fun with this, as it stands today.

____________________

@Viperlord

Thank you. Every time I hear crazies like boomfart, I get so sick and tired of this mischigas. Factcheck examined the whole birth certificate thing...the ACTUAL birth certificate produced by the State of Hawaii. My God...is it really THAT bad for the McCainiacs?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@bigmike

lol, hey, at least you're fair. You know we're overdue after the last 8 years.

:D

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Pat,

Your comments regarding how Israelis would restrain themselves because Jews are heavily involved in the financial sector? Please consider what you are saying. If the Israelis could actually take out Iran's nuclear abilities, they would. The reason the won't is because they can't do it. Iran's hardened and dispersed the sites so that it can't be done without a ground game. The geography doesn't permit an Israeli ground game. The rest of your comments are offensive. The world's finance system is not controlled by Jews, unless you want to embrace an old anti-Semitic canard.

____________________

political_junki:

@Bigmike:
It is going to be more than a little fun. Supreme Court baby. By 2012 at least 2 judges will be replaced because of age, and the replacements wont be conservative :)

____________________

Bigmike:

If I was a lib I would be whooping it up too.

Today.

While I admit it looks bleak for our side, I would still caution about counting your chickens at this point.

Look at Gallup yesterday and today.

O/B -1
M/P +1

Net M/P +2

There is a trend I would like to see continue!

____________________

political_junki:

It is not a trend mike it is statistical noise because Obama has sustained +50 for 18 days. That said nobody is denying that race is not over and national polls will definitely tighten, although some of the battle ground states are now out of reach for McShame like PA, IA, WI and MI. and CO andVA are looking better and better, with these specific state polls OH or FL become irrelevant

____________________

marctx:

Regarding an attack on Iran. Bush declined the last request to attack Iran. With a likely Obama win, I'm sure the talks have begun for Bush's approve on an attack that will certainly be denied by Obama.

Regarding the supreme court. The 3 retiring justices are all liberals.

____________________

Bigmike:

political_junki

I didn't mean trend in the technical sense. Just grasping at straws here.

____________________

falcon79:

INTERESTING FACT:
IF you do not have any toss-up states, Pollster and RCP both have the exact same states and the exact same EV count:
353 for Obama

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

wow, two intelligent posts by marctx in a row.
marctx, what happened?

____________________

Bigmike:

Stevens is 88. No other justice is older than 75.

With lifetime appointments, there is no guarantee there will be any vacancies by 2012.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

It's not important, since Israelis are not attacking Iran. But again, to get it on the record. Israelis will not ask for permission to attack Iran if they think they can do it successfully. It's not being done, because it's too late. It can't be done. A nuclear Iran is in our future. Oh Joy.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Let's all take a rest. Tomorrow is another day. Hopefully you will all have something left of your 401K's by the evening. Find a better way to help Obama. Send the state organizations money, since we need to maximize the Senate victories to go along with an Obama presidency. Then we can tax away Boomshak and his friends' great wealth, maximize the death tax, and obliterate small businesses, while we disarm and let the terrorists take over while our president is kneeling and facing Mecca in the White House. I am exhausted from reading so much nonsense and idiocy about Obama. I used to think the paranoid left was really crazy, but I would love to have them and our McCain supporters banned to some fast melting ice-shelf.

____________________

boomshak:

BREAKING NEWS! ZOGBY MONDAY LEAKED:

Zogby Monday will again show this is a 4 point race. This is being confirmed by Gallup showing Obama +4 amongst likely voters. Rasmussen contracted as well on Sunday.

There seems to be significant tightening of a race that looked only days ago was headed for an Obama rout.

____________________

falcon79:

@boom:
u need to get laid, dawg :P

____________________

johncoz:

@cinnamonape
Because I'm producing a discrete data point for each day, the rolling nature of the trackers is not a problem, as long as people understand that, for instance, the Saturday data point represents the average state of the race from Wednesday to Friday.

Also, since I'm evaluating different samples from the same population, MOE is no longer the most useful concept. Better to take a standard deviation of Obama's support, being the variation from the mean of the separate samples. As it turns out, this is less than 2.1% for every day this week for the unweighted samples (eg +/- 1.7% for today)

The subsequent weighting further reduces the influence of sampling error. The resulting number has tended to sit between the RCP and Pollster estimates.

____________________

jeepdad:

Boom, just curious how a 4-point margin in Monday's tracking poll equates a "significant tightening" in the race.

10/7 O+2.4
10/8 O+1.9
10/9 O+3.5
10/10 O+4.2
10/11 O+4.8
10/12 O+6.1
10/13 O+4.?

A 4-point spread seems pretty much in line with the last few days.

____________________

marctx:

MNLatteLiberal:

"wow, two intelligent posts by marctx in a row.
marctx, what happened?"

Shock and disappointment. Boom says its tightening but I need to see that average for Obama support down to 48% or 47% to feel this is a race. I don't worry about undecideds because I think they are almost all McCain supporters.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

kerrch,

we're on the same side, but i wouldn't call 330 EVs a landslide. I'll have to agree with bigmike et al. It might SEEM like one after the razor-thin margins from the past two years, but really, in presidential history, 330 EV is hardly a landslide.

If I had to draw a line in the sand, I might draw it at 400 EV, or approximately 75% of the electoral college. That usually requires a 9-10% PV win.

Some notable modern landslides: Nixon 1972, Reagan 1980, 1984, Bush I 1988. Clinton's two wins, while impressive, were simply "mandates" or "routs" or what have you. But again, its all semantics, as you said. A win is a win. But a mandate would be nice.

(For the record, I also don't think 400 EVs is out of the question. It requires a stretch of the imagination with WV, GA, MT, etc., but in the event of a major wave, it's conceivable).

____________________

boomshak:

OBOZONAUTS:

Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away?
Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away?
Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away?
Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away?
Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away...?

____________________

political_junki:

poor BOOM, has completely lost it.

falcon79:
------------------------------------
@boom:
u need to get laid, dawg :P

@falcon:
He once said he is going on a date but he was back in an hour, I think he was stood up

____________________

miatch:

Really, Boom. You're betting on McCain again?

____________________

ticketstub:

If Zogby is your best evidence of it "slipping away," I'll take it.

In the end, I think the only thing McCain can do is come up with a clear, easy to understand, conservative economic platform. That would do wonders for his campaign. And maybe would get there to be fewer articles about his campaign that feature the words "McCain", "desperate" and "angry mobs" in such close proximity to each other.

____________________

Commander_King:

Would someone please ban Boomshak....his insanity is overwhelming the forums.

____________________

boomshak:

@boom:
u need to get laid, dawg :P

@falcon:
He once said he is going on a date but he was back in an hour, I think he was stood up

Your obsession with my sex life is a bit creepy.

____________________

boomshak:

@miatch:

"Really, Boom. You're betting on McCain again?"

No, but I am starting to believe an Obama implosion under the weight of his own deceit may be possible.

____________________

Commander_King:

Seriously...Boomshak needs banned. As soon as he shows up all hell breaks loose and he starts calling people communists and other insane things.

____________________

carl29:

Poor boomshak, he makes himself a victim of his craziness/fanatism.

Look at this boomy,

In 2000, Zogby numbers were:

Zogby - FINAL 11/4-11/6 Bush 46% Gore 48%

Zogby 10/25-10/28 Bush 44% Gore 43%

Zogby 10/18-10/20 Bush 45% Gore 44%

Zogby 10/13-10/15 Bush 43% Gore 42%

Zogby 10/8-10/10 Bush 43% Gore 42%

Zogby, 10/3-10/5 Bush 42% Gore 44%

In Zogby's pre-election polls, Bush average was 43.8% vs. Gore 43.8%, a tie, not that far from how things ended :-(

As you can see Zogby's numbers quite constant. The guy keeps pretty "conservative" numbers.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

no, hes right guys. Its all slipping away. Just go look at the RCP average. Look at intrade. Look at all the state polling. We're doomed.

roflmao! what a joke.

btw, PPP released a state poll of Colorado yesterday showing Obama +10. Kerry States + IA + NM + CO means its over. He's winning SUPER comfortably in all those states.

So boom, is the race going to be tied by this Sunday you pathetic lowlife? Or the following Sunday? Or maybe you meant last Sunday? Or maybe the polls will be tied on a Sunday in 2012?

Or maybe everything that comes out of your mouth is complete garbage, scumbag?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@boomsarah

I saw this and thought of you.

http://www.despair.com/delusions.html

____________________

Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

@boomshak

where do you get these early leaks?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@Can there be

Drudge and his RW spin factory is my bet.

____________________

thereisnospoon:

@boskop

Get over it. Hillary had every advantage, and squandered it by supporting corporatist, DLC, neoliberal policies and being chummy with lobbyists. She ran on "experience" when it was clear people wanted "change".

You think that people must have white-guilted themselves into voting Obama. They didn't. They wanted change--not just from the last 8 years, by the from the last 16 as well.

I don't expect you to understand that, but you need to get it through your head. This isn't about race. It's about *change*.

____________________

Can there be an "out-of-control orgy"?:

this happened last week where Obama 3 days average over the weekend were weak...I just think that liberals get out more and aren't answering their phones.

____________________

Ryan in MO:

FYI to all right-wingers, none of the US Communist Party's have fielded candidates this year. Barack Obama is a Democrat. But if your looking to call people things, how about:

Calero/Kennedy - Socialist Workers Party
Moore/Alexander - Socialist Party USA
La Riva/Puryear - Party for Socialism and Liberation
Weill/McEnulty - Reform Party
Amondson/Pletten - Prohibition Party
Jay/Knapp - Boston Tea Party
Keyes/Rohrbough - Americas Independent Party
and of course
McKinney/Clemente - Green Party
Baldwin/Castle - Constitution Party
Barr/Root - Libertarian Party
Nader/Gonzalez - Independent Party/Peace and Freedom Party

how is the polling for ALL of the above official third party candidates?

any polling on the few hundred individual running there own internet campaigns from home?

But as far as Obama being called communist/socialist, at least credits the actual individuals in those party's

____________________

carl29:

Guys, don't take those polls day by day. Take them as an average for the week, so you get rid of the "statistical noise."

Average Rasmussen for the week. Do the same with Gallup and Zogby.

Now that it seems that Gallup will start using LV and RV, we can compare both pools of voters.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Yikes,

From the Kristol man himself; sure sounds like McCain is closing in (double grin):

"He has nothing to lose. His campaign is totally overmatched by Obama’s. The Obama team is well organized, flush with resources, and the candidate and the campaign are in sync. The McCain campaign, once merely problematic, is now close to being out-and-out dysfunctional. Its combination of strategic incoherence and operational incompetence has become toxic. If the race continues over the next three weeks to be a conventional one, McCain is doomed.

He may be anyway. Bush is unpopular. The media is hostile. The financial meltdown has made things tougher. Maybe the situation is hopeless — and if it is, then nothing McCain or his campaign does matters.

But I’m not convinced by such claims of inevitability. McCain isn’t Bush. The media isn’t all-powerful. And the economic crisis still presents an opportunity to show leadership.

The 2008 campaign is now about something very big — both our future prosperity and our national security. Yet the McCain campaign has become smaller.

What McCain needs to do is junk the whole thing and start over. Shut down the rapid responses, end the frantic e-mails, bench the spinning surrogates, stop putting up new TV and Internet ads every minute. In fact, pull all the ads — they’re doing no good anyway. Use that money for televised town halls and half-hour addresses in prime time."

____________________

maddiekat:

New ABC WA / PO POll O 53% M 43%. I doubt it is that wide of lead however McLiar and Palins Fav numbers are horrible.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

I loves me some 53%.

____________________

political_junki:

Could you share the link guys?

____________________

Luiz:

Interesting analysis of Nate (538): based on polls of battlegroud states (avg Obama lead higher than national) and several different combinations for 270,analyses of other parameters, trends,party organization etc) his program now gives O 94,1 % of winning.

____________________

political_junki:

Found it here it is:
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1076a2ElectionofOurDiscontent.pdf

Obama 53 McSame 43

BOOM: DEAL WITH IT :)

____________________

political_junki:

By the way ABC poll is among LV nor RV , yay :)

____________________

kerrchdavis:

At this rate, Obama will be leading 65-35 by Nov 4th.

lol!

____________________

maddiekat:

Luiz

That is because Obama is getting blasted in several racist, I mean red states.

____________________

political_junki:

Just to see how Ayres non-issue attacks are hurting OBAMA after one week:

Some parts of the report:
----------------------------------------------
McCain’s portrayal of Obama as a risky choice, further, is not resonating, and indeed
may be backfiring. By 55-45 percent registered voters see Obama as safe rather than
risky; by contrast, they divide 50-50 on whether McCain himself is safe or risky – down
from 57-41 percent “safe” at McCain’s best on this measure in June
--------------------------------------------

One apparent result of these factors is a drop in McCain’s favorability rating, to 52
percent, a loss of 7 points since the Republican convention; 45 percent now see him
unfavorably, a new high for McCain in polls since 1999. Obama’s rating, meanwhile,64 percent favorable, near its high and up 6 points in the same time frame.

____________________

Pat:

ABC Poll:

Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent.

According to ABC - no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936.

____________________

Ryguy:

"OBOZONAUTS:

Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away?
Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away?
Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away?
Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away?
Can...you...feel...it...slipping...away...?"


boom, has any democrat on this board sounded scared of losing this election in over a month? do we sould like...we...feel...it...slipping...away? who the hell do you think you are kidding. your posts wouldnt be so annoying if you didnt actually believe you were a vigilantly poster striking fear in the hearts of liberals! let me make this clear to you... you have never effected the way any of us have thought about this race. the only reason... the ONLY reason you get so many responses is because people view you as a clown and an easy target to pick on... and you keep playing into it, thinking that we take your opinion, your predictions, or your "facts" seriously. its sad how completely out of touch with reality you are.

____________________

CAlefty:

Israel bombing Iran is McCain's last hope? I'm sure Lieberman's been on the phone to Jerusalem since sundown last night :). Bear in mind that McCain and Obama get daily CIA briefings. If it's going to happen, they'll probably know about it in advance. It wouldn't surprise me if Obama's team has actually gamed this scenario, they are amazingly competent.

Let's face it, unless McCain gives the voters a reason to vote for him, they won't. He's pivoted and spun so many times in this campaign that nobody can keep track of what he stands for. And now the only messages he's putting out there are negative, so where's his narrative?

In the end he just looks like an angry old man. Kinda sad really, I used to respect the guy. But in his lust for power he has embraced everything he once stood against, and it has destroyed not only his legacy but his moral compass. I think there will be an open senate seat in AZ in 2010. It will be ironic if it gives the Dems 60.

____________________

Luiz:

maddiekat:

Yes, I think most of the gain for McCain is the red states. His campain is erratic. He is only consolidating his base, not attracting swingers.

____________________

political_junki:

I respected McCain until he elected that incompetent, ignorant, vapid, venal, corrupt VP nominee who lies like a bear rug.

____________________

Luiz:

Pat:

other relevant data in ABC: strong support for McCain - 26%. and 55 % are linking his policies to Bush. I think there is not much he can do about it.

____________________

RussTC3:

These high and low polls are why averaging them all together is the safest bet.

I went ahead and averaged Rasmussen from four years ago (Bush/Kerry) over a one-week period of 3-day rolling averages to the comparable week this year:

October 6-12, 2008 (October 4-10, 2004)
Obama 51.1 (47.7)
McCain 44.7 (49.4)

Obama +6.4 vs. Bush +1.7

Obama is performing 3.4 points better than Kerry was at this point in 2004, while McCain is under performing Bush's numbers by 4.7 points.

____________________

political_junki:

Since BOOM really thinks Americans care about Obama-Ayres thing, this is from the CONSERVATIVE columnist Bill Kristol:

"The bad news, of course, is that right now Obama’s approval/disapproval rating is better than McCain’s. Indeed, Obama’s is a bit higher than it was a month ago. That suggests the failure of the McCain campaign’s attacks on Obama.

So drop them."

____________________

saywhat90:

national polls really dont give the outcome of an election anyway. the state polls are the ones you need to look at. the electoral sort of depends on the stae races. however they are not obligated if im not mistaken to carry a state for any side. so even a state victory does nto mean a win. could be a electoral revolt. nah who am i kidding if things go the way they are now then obama should win.

____________________

RussTC3:

Didn't see anyone else list this, but the RV model has Obama up by 13 (54/41).

I always expected that the LV models would be more favorable to the Democrats, but the pollsters don't seem to agree with that.

____________________

nick-socal:

My fellow Democrats, this thing is far from over. You'd all do well to go and read the article in today's NYT about polling: Over polling young and educated voters, the embarrassment of admitting you'd vote for McCain but actually voting for him in the booth, and the Bradley affect.

Basically, younger, educated, liberal people tend to want to answer surveys, whereas the less educated and/or racist people tend to keep to themselves and not answer surveys. And that its possible that McCain has become such a loser that people are afraid to admit that they would vote for him to a pollster but then will actually vote for him on election day when no one is asking. And then of course the old Bradley affect argument. The NYT gives less credence to this notion than the 'embarrassed to admit I'm voting for McCain' phenomenon.

Check it out.

I'm one of those people who doesn't think Obama has this thing locked up. We have to stay focused. No more gloating.

____________________

saywhat90:

does anyone think that the thrid party candidates will alter the election any. i mean very few polls take them into account.the few polls that do have them have a 4 point average for barack so i wonder.

____________________

political_junki:

nick-socal:
Agreed, Obama campaign is very savy. I dont think they will ever give up coming up with new ideas to toast McCain. He has one the best political campaign I ever remember and they wont take any thing for granted

____________________

RussTC3:

No one thinks this race is over. And I really doubt anyone in the Obama campaign is acting as if it is.

We've still got a lot of days ahead of us but things are certainly looking good for Obama.

____________________

falcon79:

@political_junki:
"he once said he's going out for a date but was back in less than an hour. guess he got stood up".
hehehe good one

@boom:
"your obsession with my sex life is kind of creepy"
what sex life, boom??
ROFL

____________________

Basil:

The idea isn't just to win the election. It's to obliterate the GOP terror machine. No Obama lead is safe until McCain drops out or loses. Enough is enough.

____________________

jeepdad:

New poll: Obama +2 in NORTH DAKOTA of all places. 45-43.

____________________

liz from NJ:

Hey,

This just came out. Obama is leading McCain.... (are you ready for this) NORTH DAKOTA!!!!!

http://www.in-forum.com/

Though this is a good news, I think this is probably a wild outlier. But then again, what did we see a few days ago in WV????

Perhaps, it's about time to do some polling in all the red meat states???

____________________

falcon79:

holy cow!!!
obama leading in north dakota???
mcsame is done :P

____________________

Knyght:

Just a friendly reminder.

The polls reflect the standings today.

The election isn't for 23 days.

Nothing is decided.

A lot can happen.

Assume we're 2 points down for the next three weeks.

Gobama

____________________

JFactor:

Anything can happen for sure and I understand how Obama supporters don't want to feel over-confident but if we look at this thing purely based on facts then Obama's victory is so likely that it makes McCain supporters pule. Seriously, only a terrorist attack or a revelation that Obama has slept with little boys can change this race for McCain's benefit.
______________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

thoughtful:

Good Morning

It's kinda of interesting that the Zogby tracker for today was leaked yesterday evening by about 10 pm or was it even earlier?

Anyway +4% Obama- this is the tracker with an ID crisis, favorable to McCain/Palin.

The ABC/Washington Post shows a +10% Obama lead LV I think its 13+ RV. There is a lot of detail on this link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_101308.html

____________________

s.b.:

So why aren't you reporting the LV numbers which is what Gallup has used in every election since it started polling at this point in the race. The spread is 4% among LV not 7%. The standard is to report the LV not the Rv. It's absolutely irresponsible to be reporting RV at this time.

There will be riots in the streets if the pollsters keep reporting biased numbers showing an obama lead and McCain wins. it won't be a Bradley effect, it will be pollsters fudging numbers.

____________________

vmval1:

Fox has it 75% to Obama so far...

____________________



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