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US: Obama 50, McCain 43 (Marist-10/29)

Topics: PHome

Marist Poll
10/29/08; 535 LV, 4.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 43

 

Comments
NorthernObserver:

And the good news keeps on coming, now let's see polls from PA, OH and FL. Oh what the h***, let's see another from AZ. I want it to turn yellow on the map.

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Paul:

For link to national Marist poll, see:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Marist_103108.pdf

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TheCanadian:

Awfully small sample size for a national poll

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Paul:

Among likely and already voted: Obama 50, McCain 43, other 3, undecided 4

Among registered voters, Obama 48, McCain 39, other 2, undecided 11

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pbcrunch:

Not bad; 2 point increase from their last national poll at the end of September, roughly in line with Obama's trend since then...

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douglasdao:

Yet another poll showing an Obama lead larger than the margin of error.

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NW Patrick:

by kos
Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:35:03 AM PDT
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-15 results)

Chambliss (R) 47 (47)
Martin (D) 46 (45)
Buckley (L) 5 (5)

Call it a gain for Martin if you want, but it's more like float in the MoE. If no candidate gets above 50 percent, this race is headed into a December runoff between the top two vote getters. We may be battling for that 60th Senate seat late into the year. But look at these early voting numbers:

Already voted (12 percent of sample)

Chambliss (R) 39
Martin (D) 56
Buckley (L) 5

Those are real votes we're putting away in the bank -- a nice head start heading into Election Day. Given the tightness of the results, this one will be decided by turnout. Same with the presidential race:

McCain (R) 47 (49)
Obama (D) 44 (43)

Already voted

McCain (R) 40
Obama (D) 55

We can really win this one, which is why Obama is back on the air in the Georgia. Let's close this out, for both Obama and Martin.

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NW Patrick:

Woops last post was Georgia from Research 2000

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angrytoxicologist:

You know, looking at the map it's good to see some more non-coastal states in blue (IA, CO, NM, NV). Lately it's been VT hanging out by it's lonesome self. All others border great water (Great Lakes or Ocean). Is there something about arid climate that makes for a conservative?

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ericsp28:

Can you imagine what that runoff in GA would look like for the Senate, particularly if the Dems come one seat short of 60 on Tuesday?

That would be insane! It would break all kinds of records.

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Batony:

Take it for what it's worth...but a rabid McCain supporter just told me there is a poll coming out that will show McCain now tied with Obama here in Virginia. I've been on every polling website there is and don't see it. He "can't remember" which polling firm has it...I think it's bs, but will look out for it.

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Paul:

RE: Strategy suggested by Online 101 that McCain focus on VA and PA.

Let's assume PA and VA are in play. We know OH, NC and FL are in play. Let's also assume MO and IN go to McCain, and NV and NH go to Obama along with all Kerry states (except for PA for now) plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. That means McCain has to make a clean sweep of OH, PA, VA, NC and FL to win.

If Obama wins PA as the polls have been predicting, and we keep the above scenario, then Obama has 278. McCain would have to win OH, VA, NC, FL and CO to get to 269, but in all likelihood McCain loses the tie, so McCain would also need NH or NV.

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

really small sample size for a national poll.

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BrookLynda:

A swing and a miss in Erie

It was a throwaway line meant to be a crowd-pleaser. But it fell flat.

On Thursday at a rally in Erie, Pa., Sarah Palin touted the victors in the World Series to thousands of supporters. "I am thrilled to be here in the home state of the world-champion Philadelphia Phillies," Palin said.

The crowd booed.

Philadelphia is a seven-hour drive from Erie, which is in the state's far west. Erie's baseball devotions are split between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cleveland Indians. (Pittsburgh and Cleveland are about two hours away.)

Palin has been booed by Pennsylvania sports fans before. Earlier this month, the Republican vice presidential candidate was loudly heckled at a Philadelphia Flyers game.

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Kile Thomson:

Batony

that is BS

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NW Patrick:

Quietly, Ohio has not seen a pro-McCain poll in a MONTH. All this talk of VA, NC - OH might be gone for McCain.

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Atomique:

@angrytoxicologist:

Yes. Inland states tend to be more conservative because they are more rural. Coastal states tend to be more liberal because there are a lot of big cities on the coasts (because historically harbors were important for urban growth).

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Adam:

@angrytoxicologist:

I don't think it's a coincidence. People who live on coasts are more likely to come into contact with people from around the world who might not be exactly like them. It opens your mind.

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Batony:

@NWPatrick:

More like a week you mean, as far as pro-Ohio:

Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/18 - 10/22 886 LV 3.3 49 46 Obama +3
Strategic Vision (R) 10/20 - 10/22 1200 LV 3.0 45 48 McCain +3
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 564 LV 4.2 53 41 Obama +12
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 737 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 4.0 47 49 McCain +2
Quinnipiac 10/16 - 10/21 1360 LV 2.7 52 38 Obama +14
Suffolk 10/17 - 10/19 600 LV 4.0 51 42 Obama +9
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/16 - 10/17 625 LV 4.0 45 46 McCain +1

@Brooklynda:

Why did you post that day old story about Palin? Just curious.


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Grummy1971:

@ angrytoxicologist:
"Is there something about arid climate that makes for a conservative?"

No, it's just a known FACT (in Boomshak like capitals) that mad people keep going in one direction until something runs out (i.e. petrol - sorry I mean 'gas' or land - that's why Hollywood exists). In the case of conservatives it appears that it was water!

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NW Patrick:

Batony ok. 8-2 polls favor Obama in the last 10 days. MY BAD!:)

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MichaelJason:

Batony is doing the dirty bidding of desperate Republicans looking to demoralize the Democrats. There is absolutely NO poll showing Virginia a tie, not even the Republican Strategic Vision nor the ultra right wing Insider Advantage. I work in politics, and see polls before they are released, and that is complete and utter BS.

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NHBlue:

@angrytoxicologist:

According to Vermonters, Lake Champlain is one of the Great Lakes.

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HogsBreath:

Can you imagine what would happen in this country if McCain were to win Tuesday? I think there would be riots (and not along racial lines either) and the cries of fraud would be deafening.

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BrookLynda:

@NW Patrick: bingo.

Lately I have been thinking: the great undiscussed meme is that McCain's Ohio support is in freefall.

Oh, and Batony: I think regarding Virginia you have been Boomshacked.

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blakec:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-16 results)

Senate

Stevens (R) 36 (46)
Begich (D) 58 (48)

House at-large district

Young (R) 44 (44)
Berkowitz (D) 53 (50)


bye bye Stevens

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

I think Brooklynda was just trying to point out that Sarah Palin isn't exactly the brightest person on the planet.

What she did would not be much different than if she were to show up in Sacramento, CA to tout the LA Lakers as NBA champions.

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NW Patrick:

No candidate in the history has EVER won the electoral college after losing the popular vote by more than 3%.

Today's Obama's polling average is over 6%.
In 2004, Bush went into election day ahead by 1.5% per the RCP average, won by 2.5% and won just over 280 ELECTORAL VOTES.

I like the math!

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fox:

The forum is not fun with out Boomshak

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political_junki:

American Research Group Polls:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/

AZ: Obama(46) McCain(50)
CO: Obama(52) McCain(46)
MO: Obama(48) McCain(48)
MT: Obama(46) McCain(49)
NH: Obama(56) McCain(41)

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green baby green:

It looks to be a long (or very short night) for the republicans on Tuesday. It looks most likely that the only suspense will be whether the Dems get to 60 in the senate.

Good news for JM: You won't need to lose your sleep on Tuesday - you can turn in early!...there is no way he wins down 6%+ this late in the game...checkmate!

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BrookLynda:

Batony: my bad did not realize it was that old.

I'm still a little worried about PA, and it is good to see Palin booed in the non-Pittsburgh non-Philadelphia areas, i.e., in one of the regions that Mac is counting on. That was the relevance I saw, anyway.

I am trying to decide whether to spend Tuesday in VA or PA. VA is closer but PA is more important. Thoughts, anyone?

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Palin's mistake is relevant because it is a glaring example of the McCain camp's failure to properly do their homework on areas they're campaigning in. If someone came to where I lived and said they were proud to be in the same state as the Dallas Mavericks they would have a bunch of Spurs fans give a not so positive reaction.

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Nowukkers:

Adam - it's contact and communication with other people period. If the rural people would communicate with people who thought a little differently from themselves, they would be a bit less rigid politically, and a bit more empathetic. They may even learn the Aristotelian quality of ethos - and become more persuasive thereby. It is indicative of the largely rural and semi-rural rallies that slogans and dogmatism prevail over oratory. There, it seems as if volume and repetition are more persuasive than coherence.

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kerrchdavis:

@BrookLynda

I would go with PA. If Obama wins PA, I can't see any conceivable way McCain wins the election. It's a tough choice though.

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ErnieLynch:

kerrchdavis:
@batony

I think Brooklynda was just trying to point out that Sarah Palin isn't exactly the brightest person on the planet.

What she did would not be much different than if she were to show up in Sacramento, CA to tout the LA Lakers as NBA champions.

----

She would probably lose some Hockey Mom votes in Boston.

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mago:

@batony

Well, of course it's possible that one poll will show a tie in VA, just as it's possible someone will do a poll showing Obama up 13 there. Either one would be met with skepticism, given the mountain of data we have on where the race stands.

On another note, really good to see Stevens down big--I was disappointed in the poll that showed him only down 8, convicted felon and all.

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Batony:

@Brooklynda:

WHOA...Brook lol, they weren't booing her like they were at the Flyers game. They were booing the Phillies. C'mon now. I saw it live. She had the crowd in the palm of her hands.

Wow I hope McCain doesn't collapse:

"Mr. McCain also plans to appear at a rally in Miami on Sunday night before heading for a final seven-state sprint on Monday that will end late that evening in Prescott, Ariz."

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BrooklynDoug:

is it possible that Joe the Plumber has hurt McCain with OH women voters? Any of those polls show Obama outperforming with women vis-a-vis is national advantage?

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ErnieLynch:

Nowukkers:
Adam - it's contact and communication with other people period. If the rural people would communicate with people who thought a little differently from themselves, they would be a bit less rigid politically, and a bit more empathetic. They may even learn the Aristotelian quality of ethos - and become more persuasive thereby. It is indicative of the largely rural and semi-rural rallies that slogans and dogmatism prevail over oratory. There, it seems as if volume and repetition are more persuasive than coherence.

----

That is interesting theory that I never found in rural Greece, but there again Greece is the birthplace of the demos.

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BrookLynda:

@kerrchdavis

Thanks. That was my thinking, exactly.

As encouraging as all these recent polls are, there is one horrifying thought that keeps me up at night: if BHO loses PA, he could conceivably be in a lot of trouble.

I have never quite believed BHO will take VA, it has been red for so long. It is sort of like predicting the Yankees won't take the AL East, they've won it for so many years in a row, I'll believe it when I see it.

Hey, wait a minute...

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Paul:

RE: what has to happen to get to 60 Democratic Senators (a long shot):
1. We start with 49.
2. Add Sanders (VT) as he has supported the Dem caucus, now at 50.
3. Add Lieberman (CT) MAYBE!, so called Independent Democrat, who supported McCain strongly, but say you are at 51 and Lieberman stays with the Dems and Dems do not kick him out.
4. Now you have the following to add: Warner (VA), T. Udall (NM), M. Udall (CO) all 100% bets at 538 and you have 54 Senate seats.
5. Add Shaheen (NH - 96%), and Merkley (OR - 84%) and you have 56 seats.
6. Add Begish (AK) assuming AK does not vote for the convicted Stevens (but they could) and you still only have 57 seats.
7. Now it starts to get really tough. Add Hagan (NC) assuming she can win a really nasty fight with Dole and you have 58 seats. This race I think is going down to the wire.
8. The race that polls have been really inconsistent on is in MN - Franken vs Coleman. Regardless of polls, I believe Franken would be an upset --- an upset gets you to 59.
9. Now you get to the Chambliss-Martin GA race, which I think based on what we know already about early voting could be really close and there be no winner, as posted above. I think however that one of the prior races is likely not going DEM so that the GA race would not be the 60th seat race.
10. Some want to throw KY and MS into the mix --- I just do not think so.

If I had to place my bet today, I would say MN goes GOP, NC is really close, AK goes narrowly DEM, with GA no winner.

Result predicted for Wednesday morning: 57 Dems (including two Independents in the caucus), NC not decided and no winner in GA.

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kerrchdavis:

@BrookLynda

Or like predicting the Colts not winning the AFC South, which they always win.

Wait a minute...

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straight talk:

Did not this Polls have kerry only up 0.9 in PA and he carrid it by about 4%. You are kidding yourself if you think the McCain Camp can carry Pa! Obama will win that state by at least 8% Why? Because he has white working people supporting him now? Don't you Obama supporters get it?

THe media says Pa is tightening, but Arizona is a dead heat! But it is not getting attention!

OBama is so confident Pa is going blue, he is not coming back to the state and frankly I would not to ! OUt of thousands of all polls, Obama has always lead in PA! FOR THEIR TO BE A TOSSUP scenerio, there has to be some polls showin McCain up, like there was for BUSh in O4!

Have you guys seen a PA poll showin McCain up? How abou Va? How about Co? Landslide alert.............

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Dewey1858:

IBD/TIPP basically unchanged for today: out of curiousity, when was the last time none of the daily trackers had Obama under +4? Not that it's meaningful, just seems like there's always been at least one fly in the daily ointment for a while ...

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So then why is Obama in Iowa?

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Batony:

Hmmm...they are already taking about the new powerful blue dog democrats...here we go again.

For some reason, Republicans here in Va don't believe this state will go for Obama. I have notice a lot more McCain/Palin sign in the last few days. I haven't been in this area long enough to give any type of expert opinion...but it is interesting how they are just disregarding the polls.

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carl29:

I don't think that McCain can take PA because Obama has stayed above 50% in all polls, except Mason-Dixon that has him with a wider margin than before but it also has a Republican leaning sample, and Strategic Vision which is Republican.

*I think that the tracking poll in PA is going to be on the money coming election night. Obama will get around 53% of the vote.

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WhereisMitt:

Does anyone know how undecideds broke in 2004 between Bush and Kerry?

I find it strange that Obama isn't making a swing through PA one more time before Tuesday.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Dewey1858

That is why I find it interesting people are talking about tightening. No poll is showing it below O+4 but apparently its too close to call now.

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Dewey1858:

"So then why is Obama in Iowa?"

Because it has played an important role in the broad sweep of his campaign, which he's been revisiting as he makes his "closing argument." And because he can hit Iowa and Indiana today and still make it home for Trick-or-Treat.


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Charlie, Carrollton, TX:

I just LOVE this!---but feel so left (pun, maybe?) out of the process living in the subs outside Dallas. Growing up, as a state we used to be BLUE. But now, it's more like living in Nazi Germany around here; VERY controlled media! I wanna' smell the BULE again! I can't believe the map is going BLUE and we're NOT a part of it. But then again, we DON'T have water around here either!

At least Dallas county will VOTE BLUE!

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So then why is McCain in PA?

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Batony

If it has been one way in your State for 40 years then you would find it hard to believe it would change. Northern Virginia is where Obama should make his mark.

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hou04:

IBD/TIPP

Obama 48.2
McCain 43.8

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN THIS POLL OBAMA HAS HIT THE ACTUAL 48% MARK... SO GOOD NEWS THERE

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Dewey1858:

"So then why is McCain in PA?"

Because he really has no other option, and he's already hung his metaphorical hat on this one.

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carl29:

@Working Class,

McCain is betting on race, period. They think that poor white people don't answer the phone to pollster and those people are going to vote for him. In addition of all those declared "undecided," and why not including some of the Bradley Effect?

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Batony:

@straighttalk:

Kerry won Pa 51% to 49% and let's just call like it is...Kerry was white. Obama is black. That's the big difference.

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Dewey1858:

@Batony:
@straighttalk:

Kerry won Pa 51% to 49% and let's just call like it is...Kerry was white. Obama is black. That's the big difference.

You're leaving out a huge increase in registered Dems since the last election (I believe combined with an actual decline in the number of registered Republicans.)

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Nowukkers:

ErnieLynch:
Not so much in Greece, or Italy or any European country for that matter since there has been a history of community there for centuries. Here, rural folks tend to stay rural and keep to themselves, preferring self-reliance to community inter-dependence. My brother-in-law's family relishes the isolation and the fact they don't have to deal with people they don't know, or don't want to deal with. Needless to say their politics, along with those of their "neighbors", tend to be very rigid, based on the folks they choose to come into contact with, (who are very similar to themselves). I would venture to say that sheer numbers and averages would dictate that the more people you come into contact with, the more likely you are to have a divergence of viewpoint or opinion. Of course it doesn't always hold true. But from the rallies in rural areas that I've seen footage of, admittedly more GOP than Dem, there is considerably more dogmatism than suasion.

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Batony:

Carl29:

Do me a favor and quit saying Mason-Dixon and Strategic Vision are republican leaning polls...do like I did and check there work from 2004. They were very accurate.

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mago:

O. also returned to Iowa at the end of the primaries, I believe on the day of SD/MT. I don't think it was because he thought his Iowa delegates were defecting, but rather as a symbolic gesture.

At this point, I am not sure how much difference one more visit to OH or VA or CO will make. A visit to GA or AZ would be useful because it would make national news, profect the image of confidence and take air time away from whatever the slime-du-jour is.

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carl29:

My bet stays on Obama carrying PA. Obama will get more Republicans vote, those sophisticated and educated whites in the burbs, especially republican-leaning-pro-choice women insulted by the Palin pick.

On Tuesday night I bet that Obama will carry PA with 53% of the vote :-)

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laguna_b:

Poor white people don't vote as regularly as other "republicans"

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MichaelJason:

Why do you all even bother responding to Batony? He/She is an immature Republican trying to get a rise out of you, a little more subtly then Boomshak did. IGNORE IT! It's just a right wing hack trying to demoralize Democrats. Polls don't lie.

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NW Patrick:

Wow if Arg says you are winning Colorado YOU ARE LOL Look how close AZ and MT are!

AZ: Obama(46) McCain(50)
CO: Obama(52) McCain(46)
MO: Obama(48) McCain(48)
MT: Obama(46) McCain(49)
NH: Obama(56) McCain(41)

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ericsp28:

@Paul

Overall, I agree with your analysis. I would point out however, that in 2006 a Democratic takeover of the Senate was considered a long shot too. They needed 5 seats and only had 2 pick ups that looked solid going into election day.

I wouldn't underestimate Obama's coattails in some of the closer races. That, along with low turnout among demoralized Republicans might lead to a few upsets.

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maddiekat:

Rasmussen Georgia

M 52 O 47

I saw the lines around the block for early voting so I think Obama still has a shot.

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laguna_b:

Republicans say that governement is incompetent adn then get elected and prove it....

Republicans say women are stupid and should stay at home as Soccer Moms....then choose Palin and prove it....

Thier scientific capabilities for observation are a bit flawed....

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Batony:

@Dewey1858:

Cautionary note: Just b/c they are registered Dems, don't necessarily mean they are voting for Obama, if anything Biden saved Obama in PA.

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NW Patrick:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-16 results) ALASKA

Senate

Stevens (R) 36 (46)
Begich (D) 58 (48) **YAY!

House at-large district

Young (R) 44 (44)
Berkowitz (D) 53 (50)

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WebToe:

@ Batony

"Biden saved Obama in PA"

You think maybe that is part of the reason he picked him. It is amazing what happens when you put some thought into a VP pick.

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Batony

You are just talking about factors that can never be gauged. All we have are numbers and we go off those instead of just sitting around thinking about Bradley effect and other complete unknowns.

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Batony:

@MichaelJason:

Are you kidding me? A right wing hack? An immature Republican? A rise out of people? Trying to demoralize? A she? Damn man...I think you need for Tuesday to get here tomorrow. Wow....

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MichaelJason:

One has to wonder why Batony is wasting its breath on here. It is clearly upset that it's candidate won't win. Ignore Batony as it is a trouble maker.

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MDB1974:

@NW Patrick:

where are the arg polls listed?

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NW Patrick:

Interesting note in the Rsrch 2000 poll for GA. Obama down only 3. BUT. They are basing 27% AA turn out. In 2004 it was 25%. Curr trend, actual AA voting is at 35%. If this holds until election day LOOK OUT.

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carl29:

Strategic Vision (R) IS a Republican pollster, what do you think the (R) next to the name stand for? LOL!!!!

Mason-Dixon DO have a Republican leaning sample.

Look in IA in 2004:

Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 625 LV 4.0
Bush 49 Kerry 43 Bush +6

Did Bush carry IA by 6%? Let me check....

New Mexico in 2004:

Mason-Dixon | 9/15-9/16 625 LV 4.0
Bush 47 Kerry 43 Bush +4

Did Bush carry NM by 4%? Let me check...

Their LIKELY voter sample is very skewed towards the Republican because they assume that Republicans turnout in better numbers than Democrats.

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zombieflanders:

IBD/Tipp:

O 48.2 (+0.5)
M 43.8 (+0.2)

"The race showed little change Friday, with Obama's lead ticking up 0.3 point and most internals stable. The Democrat's advantage with independents narrowed a bit, with 13% of them still undecided. McCain regained his advantage with investors, but Obama kept the 9-point lead he jumped to with seniors at midweek, and he's now in front for the first time with suburbanites."

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Calhoun:

The poker metaphor most often used is that for McCain to win, he has to draw an "inside" straight. Of course, making that draw (and you need one of four "outs" or cards from the 47 unseen cards in the deck) doesn't give you the winning hand if your opponent already has made a full house! It appears that, right now, Obama is holding a full house.

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ErnieLynch:

Nowukkers:
ErnieLynch:
Not so much in Greece, or Italy or any European country for that matter since there has been a history of community there for centuries. Here, rural folks tend to stay rural and keep to themselves, preferring self-reliance to community inter-dependence. My brother-in-law's family relishes the isolation and the fact they don't have to deal with people they don't know, or don't want to deal with. Needless to say their politics, along with those of their "neighbors", tend to be very rigid, based on the folks they choose to come into contact with, (who are very similar to themselves). I would venture to say that sheer numbers and averages would dictate that the more people you come into contact with, the more likely you are to have a divergence of viewpoint or opinion. Of course it doesn't always hold true. But from the rallies in rural areas that I've seen footage of, admittedly more GOP than Dem, there is considerably more dogmatism than suasion.

---

I agree with that statement, but Darwin found the opposite with isolation finches in the Galapagos?

What I am trying to get at is : Put 30 Greeks on a deserted island and you will have 15 politcal parties. Put 30 Anglo Saxons in a similiar situation, you might only get one party.

Therefore national orgins may dictate political development.

Your thoughts? And I hope I am not insulting anyone.

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NW Patrick:

Batony lets try to stick to FACTS and polling #'s at this time. The most CONSERVATIVE polls in PA have shown a 5 point race. That's a LOSS LOL

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NW Patrick:
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laguna_b:

In defense of batony....my ONLY one....I know that people in the Obama camp are very concerned about Bradley effect, if only because it is an unknown and not measurable. That being said the is clearly a reverse Bradley effect with the AA population and supression by depression of McCain voters. First of all few are really enthused with him and those that are figure he will lose anyway. All this cancels most if not all of the Bradley effect in my humble opinion.

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MichaelJason:

NW Patrick, Asking Batony to stick to facts is like asking John McCain to vote for Barack Obama :)

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truthcomb:

maddiekat:

"Rasmussen Georgia

M 52 O 47

I saw the lines around the block for early voting so I think Obama still has a shot."
-----------------
So, Ras wants us to believe that either there are no undecideds and Barr gets less than 1% or 1% undecided with Barr at zero? I thought at least 3% of his home state would show him some love. Am I missing something?

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MichaelJason:

Laguna, I work for the Obama Campaign. What proof do you have that we are worried about the Bradley Effect. I've spoken with David Plouffe and David Axelrod in lengthy discussions and no one even thinks it's going to affect the outcome. I'm curious as to if you can source your allegation or not? We would like to know if something is in the media that we are unaware of.

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Vercingetorix:

"Put 30 Anglo Saxons in a similiar situation, you might only get one party."

Hehe, possibly, but if so, it would come with a uniform and some kind of special party salute.

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bmrKY:

@BrooklynDoug

Yes, I mentioned the JT Plumber theory in an earlier thread from this morning. I think there is the possiblity of a backlash against him in Ohio. Here it is, these people are losing their jobs and their homes are being foreclosed, and then JT Plumber gets out there ranting and raving about how social security should be done away with and of course his vile remarks concerning Obama and the Jewish community. Then the announcement that Joe/Sam has hired an agent. That can't be playing too well with the people of Ohio. They're struggling just to make ends meet, meanwhile here comes this guy who owes on his taxes and appears to just be trying to piggyback off of the coverage of the Presidential race so that he can get a book deal and a recording contract, as well as what I'm guessing will be a career in reality TV that probably isn't that far behind.

In all likelihood it probably won't ultimately determine the outcome of the election, but I do believe that McCain will forever regret using this guy as a campaign issue. The novelty of the story kept him close for a little bit, but eventually as people learned more about Joe/Sam it appears as though it may have backfired.

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Dewey1858:

@Batony:
@Dewey1858:

Cautionary note: Just b/c they are registered Dems, don't necessarily mean they are voting for Obama, if anything Biden saved Obama in PA.

But I'll bet dollars to donuts those new registered Dems aren't the folks McCain is trying to flip. And I'll bet they are strongly anti-incumbent.

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Batony:

@Carl29:

I can pull a couple examples out to in 2004:

Florida:

Bush 52
Kerry 47

Mason Dixon and SV had Bush plus 4.

All I'm saying is you act as if SV and Mason Dixon polls should just be ignored. SurveyUSA wasn't right in all the battleground states either in 2004.

____________________

carl29:

laguna_b,

Almost NONE of the objective experts(non-partisan that is) believe in the so-called Bradley Effect; however, most of them agree that those "undecided" are for McCain. This is why it is important for Obama to stay above 50%. I have the feeling that with him: "What you see is what you get."

____________________

ErnieLynch:

Vercingetorix:
"Put 30 Anglo Saxons in a similiar situation, you might only get one party."

Hehe, possibly, but if so, it would come with a uniform and some kind of special party salute.

----

Now, now, remember the homily we received yesterday. Lets not fire up the opposition.

____________________

laguna_b:

@Michaeljason

well obviously I am not going to throw names around on a public board, but I spoke to my nephew last night who works with the wife of a person he identified as high up in the Obama campaign who said they were VERY concerned.
To that I say that if you can't measure it then you can't be sure. If you can't be sure you compensate as if it is real as a threat.

I take comfort in what you say...I will not rest until I see the election declared for Obama. There is no fixing it Nov. 5.....so I AM paranoid.

____________________

carl29:

Batony,

Of course they got it right because they assume that MORE Republicans than Democrats would vote, which was the case in 2004, although in Florida there are more Democrats than Republicans. Mason-Dixon policy is to "over-represent Republicans."

Every time you see a poll from Mason-Dixon you are looking at the Republicans best case scenario :-)

____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

Hello everybody,
Is next Tuesday a holiday?
Thanks

____________________

MichaelJason:

The Bradley Effect is a myth in many respects. Tom Bradley actually never polled above 50% and he was not charasmatic. There was economic unrest and he was a relative newcomer. Also, that was years ago. AA's have outperformed their polling stances in many key races, including recent Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr. who was polling five to seven points behind Bob Corker in Tennessee and he came to within 2% in the final votes, in a heavily white Southern state. Deval Patrick, Governor of MA outperformed pre-election polling by 12%, and Senator Obama himself outpolled his numbers in predominately white states such as Iowa, Idaho, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Missouri, Colorado, North Dakota, and Montana.

____________________

ErnieLynch:

Sarko: none of use have been working since September, but we show up for work.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

@Ernie

Sorry, no intention to be incendiary. I'm simply reflecting on the historical experience that we anglo-saxons are pretty efficient at grouping ourselves into coherent organisations, but much less good at checks and balances. I should have chosen less controversial words to say it.

____________________

MichaelJason:

LOL@ErnieLynch.. touche'

____________________

ErnieLynch:

Vercingetorix:
@Ernie

Sorry, no intention to be incendiary. I'm simply reflecting on the historical experience that we anglo-saxons are pretty efficient at grouping ourselves into coherent organisations, but much less good at checks and balances. I should have chosen less controversial words to say it.

---

none taken, just didn't want Boomshak to sneak in and ruin the party. But you are correct with respect to cultural differences and political expressions.

____________________

Batony:

@Dewey1858:

Good point. I think the "Casey Democrats" the anti-abortion ones in conservative PA is the target.

@MichaelJason:

I really don't ever remember conversing with you. As far as you working for the Obama camp, and talking to Mr. Race Baiter(ask Philadephians) himself and Plouffe...so. I didn't say anything about the Bradley effect, I said people not voting for him b/c he is black, I never mentioned anything about pollsters. What about the people who hang up on pollsters? No one on here knows what will happen...b/c this is a FIRST. Will the AA vote drive up the "Bubba" vote? We just will not know until Tuesday...until then it is guessing like everyone else on here. And don't ever call me a Republican again...I have probably done more for the Democratic Party than you can think, Mr. I work for Obama.


@Laguna_b

You mean to tell me out of all the things I have said...you can only find one to agree with me on?

____________________

ErnieLynch:

ErnieLynch:
Vercingetorix:

---

btw, that name of your sounds Gaul. Didn't Ceasar do you in at Alesia?

____________________

laguna_b:

@batony

Hmmm....I think so..but then I would have to go back and spend the day searching and reviewing to be sure..but even on this one I think your conclusion is incorrect based on the other factors I mentioned....

____________________

MichaelJason:

You have done more for the Democratic party then I can think, Botany? How about supporting our candidate then instead of race baiting and slandering him and his campaign handlers? How about getting over Hillary's loss and supporting the same causes she stood for instead of acting like a spoiled brat?

____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

We are here in France very excited about the us elections, and most of us are hoping that obama will win, it will be very disappointing for us, if Mc cain is elected, Obama seems to be very smart, it's a great to have someone like him as president. In the other side we are very worried about Palin, who is seems to be very divisive, very extremist with her positions.
thanks to everybody and don't forget to vote.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"btw, that name of your sounds Gaul. Didn't Ceasar do you in at Alesia?"

Hehe, yep, the Gaulish king at Alesia. The Gauls had the numbers, but the Romans had the best ground game: their ground had sharpened wooden stakes in it.

____________________

cinnamonape:

What's with the Republicans and this waitress not being given her tip analogy.

If I recall it's Republicans who are notorious for not tipping waitpeople, and then (rather than giving money to a street-person outside) pocketing it themselves.

It was in 1986 during the Reagan era that the waitress started getting taxed on her tips. Despite all those years of a Republican Congress under Newt and with President Bush they never pushed through a law allowing waitpersons from keeping their tips, untaxed!

And since most food-service workers start at minimum wage, and only climb much above that for years, one would think that if Republicans really supported waiters and waittresses they'd have supported an increase in the minimum wage. But the Federal minimum wage stagnated for ten years, and in 2007 John McCain voted against the law to raise it from $5.15/hr.

And they are creating some mythology about Democrats giving a waitresses tips to a beggar?

Not unless she is pulling in more than $200,000.

Those supposedly good Christian Republicans out there should read Christ's parable of Dives and Lazarus.


____________________

ErnieLynch:

FromSarkoToObama

never fear Sarko, Vercingetorix himself has come back to lead us to victory, if we can keep him away from the woman that is.

____________________

laguna_b:

I still don't understand what the deal is with Hillary....she lost, she was NOT the emotional or intellectual favorite....I am at a loss to understand the snit. I thought she was very negative and harmful to the party. Bill Clinton was one of my favorite and most respected presidents when he left office.....but after a few months of watching his campaign against Obama I would not have voted for him if I knew only that....and not what an excellent president he would actually make.

I can't imagine Hillary supporters watching Palin disgrace thier gender and Mccain with his hand quotes about women's health, even considering voting for anyone but Obama.

Gven teh reverse situation I know I wouldn't hesitate.

____________________

Charlie, Carrollton, TX:

On Anderson Cooper's hour last night, all three of the panelists, even the GOP guest, were attempting to suppress their laughter upon seeing clips of JOE AMERICA (a "GREAT American hero" according to John) on stage with JC and shaking hands with people in route after the rally.

Stumping for the candidates:

Gore / Tipper / Bill / The HILL / Michelle / Joe

What's wrong with the picture?

How and what made JOE a "great American hero?"


____________________

FromSarkoToObama:

How can republicans select such an old candidate, Is mc cain able to face a such tough job for another 4 years, i have so much doubts about that, may be he will be tired and ask Palin to replace him. Is Palin really ready for her job, i have so much doubts.

____________________

ErnieLynch:

Vercingetorix:
"btw, that name of your sounds Gaul. Didn't Ceasar do you in at Alesia?"

Hehe, yep, the Gaulish king at Alesia. The Gauls had the numbers, but the Romans had the best ground game: their ground had sharpened wooden stakes in it.

---

would of helped if your guys wore clothes and some shoes. cant understand why you gauls like to fight bare-ass naked.

____________________

Batony:

@MichaelJason:

How about supporting your "candidate" is out of the question. As I stated before this election is one that I will be sitting out, neither candidate impresses me...and my Democratic ties were cut in 2006. Totally independent now. LOL...Getting over Hillary? The only reason I even looked at Obama is b/c he chose ome of MY FAVORITES Joe Biden as his running mate. Could give a damn about Hillary Clinton.

The only two reasons why I would like to see a Democratic victory are:

The naked power grab by Tom Delay in Texas is still one of the most disgusting acts I have ever seen. Republicans deserve hell for that.

The other is all the old-time Civil Right warriors have an opportunity to see a black man elected Prez before they pass away.

Not race baiting. As far as the campaign manager who specializes in getting blacks elected...Deval Patrick, Michael Street in Philly..per your request I will save that for another blog.

____________________

laguna_b:

@fromsarkotoobama
"How can republicans select such an old candidate, Is mc cain able to face a such tough job for another 4 years,"

Because he was absolutely the BEST they had to offer..... LOL!

____________________

Adam:

Say what you will about Hillary, I don't think we'd be in as good a position now without the fight she put up. The whole ordeal battle-tested Obama, and fired up a whole lot of Democrats.

____________________

mrzookie:

Latest from Montana

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/15-16 results)

McCain (R) 48 (49)
Obama (D) 44 (45)

Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/145250/62

____________________

Nowukkers:

ErnieLynch:
Vercingetorix:
"Put 30 Anglo Saxons in a similiar situation, you might only get one party."

You may be right. Anglo Saxons tend to "conform" more readily.

____________________

carl29:

Let me show you that with Obama what you see is what you get:

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Pre-election polls: Obama 38.3

Total vote: Obama 36.4 (-1.9)

*Edwards and Richardson also underperformed on election day as well, but has anybody talked about that?

Edward's pre-election polls 18.3% vs. 16.9% actual vote.

Richardson's pre-election polls 5.7% vs. 4.6%


FLORIDA

Pre-election polls: Obama 28.8%

Actual vote: Obama 33.0%


CALIFORNIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 44%

Actual vote: Obama 42.3% (-1.7)


NEW YORK

Pre-election polls: Obama 36.3%

Actual vote: Obama 39.9% (+3.6)


NEW JERSEY

Pre-election polls: Obama 40.6

Actual vote: Obama 44% (+3.4)


MISSOURI

Pre-election polls: Obama 41.8%

Actual vote: Obama 49.2% (+7.4)


MASSACHUSSETS

Pre-election polls: Obama 40.7%

Actual vote: Obama 40.8% (+0.1)


ARIZONA

Pre-election polls: Obama 35.7%

Actual vote: Obama 41.9% (+6.2)


VIRGINIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 55%

Actual vote: Obama 63.6% (+8.6)


MARYLAND

Pre-election polls: Obama 55%

Actual vote: Obama 60% (+5)


WISCONSIN

Pre-election polls: Obama 46.3%

Actual vote: Obama 58.1% (+11.8)


OHIO

Pre-election polls: Obama 43%

Actual vote: Obama 44.1% (+1.1)


TEXAS

Pre-election polls: Obama 45.7%

Actual vote: Obama 47.4% (+1.7)


PENNSYLVANIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 43.4%

Actual vote: Obama 45.4% (+2)


INDIANA

Pre-election polls: Obama 44%

Actual vote: Obama 49.3% (+5.3)


WEST VIRGINIA

Pre-election polls: Obama 24.7%

Actual vote: Obama 25.7% (+1)


OREGON

Pre-election polls: Obama 52.2%

Actual vote: Obama 58.2% (+6)


KENTUCKY

Pre-election polls: Obama 29.4%

Actual vote: Obama 29.9% (+0.5)

--------------------------------------

I purposely excluded places in the South because obviously no one could have anticipated the AA turnout, so I didn't think that it was fair :-)

I hope this chart could help you see that the Bradley Effect, white people lying about being for the black candidate but voting for the white, is just NO-TRUE these days.

____________________

Batony:

@laguna_b:

To a lot of women, Palin is a role model. It's amazing how we thing sometimes. I imagine you would be surprise to actually find a lot black men respect and admire Clarence Thomas.

Palin disgraced her gender? Wow...that's rich.

____________________

Nowukkers:

Batony:
"The naked power grab by Tom Delay in Texas is still one of the most disgusting acts I have ever seen. Republicans deserve hell for that."
Agreed. I think that the "thousand-year Reich" plan, or as the GOP called it "permanent Republican majority" plan was one of the things that did them in, practically speaking. They spent so much time focusing on that plan, that they forgot to dance with the grass-roots folks that brought them to the sock-hop in the first place. Delay is one of the most odious festering turds I've ever had the displeasure of having to contemplate. By the way, what happened to those charges against him.

____________________

laguna_b:

@batony
"Palin disgraced her gender? Wow...that's rich."

It is statements like this that make me think you don't have any objectivity.

Her brief political career is scarred with more scandal than most accomplish in 20 years. Ethics violations, expense excesses, attempts to fire a librarian over book banning, he anti-science stances, inability to learn or to think below skin deep, he demagoguery and adressing rascism and other instruments of hate. One positive side....NOTHING. She has a vagina. How can she be a model mother if her 17yo daughter got knocked up? Lack of guidance at home? Absinence ONLY education? How many hours a week do you think she spend with each child?

I want a person who walks with intellectual giants not one who claims that men walked with dinosaurs!

____________________

laguna_b:

As long as American women as a role model, and Joe the Plumber as some ideal, we continue to admire and achieve sub-mediocrity......and continue to borrow money from China to buy thier goods.....sinking sinking

____________________

Adam:

@carl29:

First you posted numbers showing that Obama's poll numbers were 2% higher than the election day results.

Then you posted a whole slew of states where Obama OVER-performed the polls.

So in which states did Obama underperform to bring the average back down to -2%?

____________________

Batony:

Laguna_B:

Obviously you have no objectivity when it comes to Palin. I do. If the media didn't first report that the baby wasn't hers, then I might would have believed some things they say about her. But the witch hunt is uncalled for. I said this a few weeks ago...it is really sad for white women of any party to stand by and let the media just savage two women the way they have been.

And some of the most hated comments are coming from other minorities...in particular certain gays. Just sad.

____________________

laguna_b:

@batony
"And some of the most hated comments are coming from other minorities...in particular certain gays. Just sad.

What are you talking about????

First of all, I respect Hillary and as I said I could vote for her no problem.

If mcCain needed a vigina on the ticket to be competitive, he could have chosed Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina. Both are well accomplished, and both I could happlily vote against because of thier potlitical stance yet still respect. He didn't.
Why is EXCELLENCE not the criteria we use for selection? Why is mediocrity now a VALUE.

In your response to me you did not tell me why YOU think Palin is qualified to be VP.

____________________

Batony:

Why is excellence not the criteria we use for selection? So Obama was the most qualified??

Also B/c as with Obama, if he is elected, she will have the support around her. She obviously is an intelligent woman to get elected Gov. And of course she would need to get up to speed on policy issues and duties of the office. My point is, if you don't think she is qualified fine...but don't bury the woman.

____________________

laguna_b:

Oh, yeah...we compare her to the guy who was at the top of his class at Harvard...who speaks in coherent sentences and has the best advisors in the world to assit him AND he actually willUNDERSTAND what they tell him.

Elected governor of a state with the population 1/4 that of Brooklyn is no great accomplishment vs. running for and winning the Democratic presidential nomination against the most formidible of opponents. C'mon Batony, no objectivity.

____________________

laguna_b:

@batony

look at her belief system....men walking with dinosaurs??? You don't start your intellect at 44 and grow to a giant. It is a lifelong process. No amount of advisors can fill a non-functioning mind.

____________________

Basil:

Ernie

Re the Greek vs Anglo experiment, here's what my computer models say:

The 15 2-person Greek parties argue constantly around tables covered with really good food.

The one-party Anglo group consists of 15 live Anglos with one as leader, 10 dead Anglos, and 5 prisoners. Their food sucks.

Another stat:
"If all the dogs in the world were placed end to end... they would love it!" --Taft Chatham

____________________

laguna_b:

@Basil


REALLY FUNNY! LOL!

____________________

When he wins, the first person Barack should thank is Hillary. Without her dogged fight to the finish, he never would have been organized in NC, PA, OH and IN. And, she made him a much, much better candidate.

____________________



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