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US: Obama 50, McCain 44 (GWU 10/9, 10/12-15)

Topics: PHome

GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/9, 10/12-15, 08; 1,000 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 50, McCain 44

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

6 point lead in a right leaning poll. I'll take it any day!

Landslide Baby Landslide

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Trosen:

For boom and the others hoping against hope...sorry to pee on your parade, but..great for him, I'll grant you some of these national polls have certainly showed signs of "tightening" beyond just statistical noise over the past few days. The problem? The crucial state polls are showing opposite movement. This can only be indicative of the fact that very red states are reddening more. If I start seeing some "swing" state polls that are showing the same movement toward McCain, I'll say it's indicative of a tightening race. But without that, what good does a few points nationally do for him?

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boomshak:

Wow, Battleground has gone from Obama +13 to Obama + 6 in 2 days!

That's a 7 point shift to McCain in a tracking poll in 2 days! This confirms the movement to McCain in Rasmussen and Gallup.

Everything is heading McCain here.

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NW Patrick:

Boom**** you are an IDIOT. Could you show me ONE, literally ONE state poll showing movement in the BG states? YOU KNOW, the ones YOU HAVE TO WIN to earn the electoral college? FAIL.

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Trosen:

Thanks for answering my question boom (as usual). I'll grant you the +13 GWU poll from a few days ago was a weird anomoly. Seriously though.. where are the state polls to back up this McCain "surge?"

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Trosen:

Come on boom.. take the bait. Let's have some give and take here. Put away the pom-poms and have an actual conversation.

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NW Patrick:

I wonder if +1 for Obama in Zogby is McCain movement? ROFL Idiot.

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maddiekat:

There is no surge. Ras is pressing undecideds and all the other tracking polls are about where everybody has them. Boom is simply an idiot trying to get under your skin.

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Trosen:

I know he's trying to get under everyone's skin, but as a good liberal, I'm interested in everyone's point of view. I'm giving him an opportunity to present his case as to why he really thinks the race is getting closer. Unless several important state polls show the same + McCain movement, I'm not convinced. I'd like boom or another resident McCain cheerleader to explain it to me.

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Scott W:

I can't believe how all you guys play into BOOMCRAP and his bait. He knows the facts, but loves to bait you guys... Obama and Biden won 4 of 4 debates - none of them even close. Last night was Mccain's best showing and the little curmudgeon still turned off America. It's over... no chance McCain will win, but it always tightens in the final days. A 4 point popular vote win is still going to result in a near landslide... it should be about 350 to 180ish... BOOM is just enjoying taunting you! And I have to admit... he aggravates the CRAP out of me too!

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NW Patrick:

Can we ignore Boom today? State polls have been awesome for Obama. When McCain's racking up 30 to 40 point wins in low info red states it's bound to change some tracking #'s. WHO CARES. The fundamentals of the race are right where they've always been. So Obama loses 1 in Rasmussen today. YAY. He gained 1 in Zogby. BOTH of these pollsters are on the WAY WAY CONSERVATIVE side. There are two kinds of pollsters this year folks... some going on "traditional" voter turn out... and just as many believing this will be a break out year for voter turn out and dem advantage. This is why there are SEVERAL polls at 7,8,9, 10, even 14 for Obama and why some are at 3, 4, and 5.
It's simply a difference of method. FACT? Obama is up 3% in the WORST case scenerio. Let me remind you. BUSH won the last election with a 2% lead going into election day. I'm feeling good.

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muckinello:

Closer national polls were expected by everyone. I thik it will settle around 5% for Obama (now he is around 6.9, so he may lose another two points). As Bush 2000 showed, what matters are the EV.
Boom may try to switch the main discourse but, the way I see it, Obama has all Kerry + NM and IA in the bag. He has BIG leads in CO and VA and moderate leads in FL, OH and NV.
He needs JUST ONE OF THEM to close the deal (even NV with 5EV would give him a tie and thus a victory since the house will break the tie in his favor).

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1magine:

The Land of Lincolner tells supporters at a Manhattan fundraiser breakfast they shouldn't take his lead for granted, calling it "another good lesson that Hillary Clinton taught me."

"For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire."

"I've been in these positions before when we were favored, and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked."

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BOOMFAIL:

McCainiacs, what is the path to a McShame victory? Which states must he win to get to 270?

I'll tell you, since you'll just ignore me:

FL, VA, OH, MO, NM, CO, NC, NV, IN. (there's obviously more, but these are the biggies.)
McShame must win ALL OF THEM!

Now...of the above states, how many must Obama win???

I'll answer that one for you too. ONE.

Please share with me the trends in any of these states that would show the race tightening. Throwing one poll from the cherry basket that fits your needs won't do. Please share the average of all polls in these states to prove your case of McShame's path to victory.

You won't??

OK, then just check out the state polls on RealClearPolitics

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

Looks like we need some 'splainin'

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OneAngryDwarf:

@NW Patrick

More to your point, Obama is running at +50% in almost all of these polls. That means that he's already garnered more than half of the popular vote, there isn't a lot of room for growth from there.

Anytime a candidate is polling consistently at 50% or more is a really good sign. Combined that with the HUGE state numbers he is pulling and it is over.

Boomdunce is just flailing around now because he knows his guy is going down in flames. It is really pathetic to watch, he basically goes over to Drudge or Redstate, grabs an article that he thinks supports his point, then posts it here looking for a reaction.

Dude is a loser of the first magnitude. We should feel sorry for him, his entire world is built around trolling sites like this. It is pathetic and annoying but it is also very, very sad.

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Trosen:

Ok.. let me play devil's advocate. I assume, as recent history as showed, after last night's debate gets figured in, the national polls will widen once again over the weekend. But let's pretend for a second they do not. Let's say over the weekend, Ras goes down to 3.. Zogby gets within 4. Gallup comes within 5 or so. Let's also pretend that FL, OH, and maybe.. ohh.. in CO, McCain pulls even or a point or 2 ahead. Then I'll say ok.. maybe we do have a horse race here down to the wire. But I see no evidence of that right now. And every past indicator says the leads will balloon again in the next few days. So I am inviting the righties on here to either:

a) Show me how that's happening right now on a state-level

OR

b) Explain to me why that will happen in light of last night's debate and/or recent events.

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MDB1974:

No news here. Things are holding steady. It is expected that Mccain will pick up a good percentage of the undecideds so there will be a tightening. McCain needs more than a tightening though, he needs a turnaround. It's uphill from here on out for him. The killer is not in the overall numbers at this point, it's that the perception of the candidates has changed. Obama has stolen Mccains perceived advantage. He is the one who has been cool under fire, operating as the elder statesmen.

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boomshak:

Face it, Obama is in full-blown collapse.

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NW Patrick:

OneAngryDwarf I'll add more:) Reports today that Obama is now spending money in West Virginia, North Dakota, and some other states they've back off on for a few weeks. What does this tell me? Obama has LITERALLY, with blue states safe, 10 paths to victory. McCain? ONE. Literally 1. I'm feeling cautious of course but VERY GOOD.

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NW Patrick:

boom****... a full blown colapse but NOT ONE, NOT ONE state poll to prove your theory. ****ing windbag. Be gone! LOL

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boomshak:

Gallup down from O+11 to O+7 in RV's and down from O+6 to O+3 in Lv's just yesterday. Obama has lost 7 points on GWU in 2 days. He has lost a point on Rasmussen with all internals going McCain.

Obama will be the most epic collapse in the history of US politics. He really is Jimmy Carter!

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Umm, why are you all stressing about margins? Does the margin really matter? The real telling point is that Obama is consistently at or above 50 % in the national trackers and in enough states to handily win the electoral college. It doesn't matter if McCain's numbers improve (in most polls he seems to be facing a ceiling at 46-47). If Obama's numbers stay at or above 50 in the national polls and enough states to get 270 electoral votes, he wins. Keep that in mind so this site isn't clogged up with all of these frantic love affairs with daily polls.

GWU, of course, like Diageo seems to be lacking given how ridiculously widely it swings from day to day.

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wakeup:

Is there statistical evidence that state battle ground polls lag behind national trends?

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boomshak:

obozo
is
falling
apart
!

____________________

Trosen:

boomshak:

"Face it, Obama is in full-blown collapse."

Ok dude.. I'm giving you a real chance to show you're anything more than a full-blown joke of a partisan hack. I know you're getting a rise out of raising all the pro-Obama people's blood pressure, but seriously, show me you believe anything you're saying. If you continue to just ignore fair, rational questions to back up your statements, then you're just engaging in some mental masturbation before the inevitable on October 4th. If that's the case, enjoy yourself, but you're just not going to be taken seriously here.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Trosen

You are correct in your assumptions. At this time Obama has what looks to be a double digit lead in states with a total of 277 EV's. In addition to that he is leading or tied in 10 more states.

Basically we are looking at a big "who cares" when it comes to the national polls at this time because Obama is in a dominant position in the Electoral College. With three weeks to go and early voting banking votes like crazy, plus the fact that he is advertising 4-5X as much as McCain, plus the ground game, plus the 30 minutes of national airtime the week before the election.

The Obama campaign will be a model for modern political campaigns for years to come. He has every advantage and this thing has the makings of a blowout.

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muckinello:

A question: when do you think Chuck Hagel and Colin Powell will endorse Obama? Any effect on undecideds?

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boomshak:

There is some evidence that Gallup may further tighten today as well.

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muckinello:

Boom, you would be right if there was ONE single reason for him to collapse. McCain did absolutely nothing (in your words) to change the dynamics. Want more? DOW is down 300 points, according to YOUR logic this means big news for Obama.
I really think you are a fake Boom and will come out on Nov.4 to show that you really are a Dem in disguise pulling a prank

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boomshak:

Who would have thought that Rasmussen would have this thing almost statistically tied 3 week out.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Trosen

Ignore boomdildo he fell off the deep end weeks ago. He doesn't even bother to deal in facts anymore just inane R talking points. He is desperate and pathetic. Hopefully if we ignore him he'll go away.

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wakeup:

Muck,
Powell will NOT endorse anyone.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak name ONE state poll showing signs of collapse? Just one. Waiting boom****.

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boomshak:

Obama can feel it slipping away. He knows he is in trouble. His internal polling is making him nervous. He said himself he is not as far ahead as some of these national polls say he is.

The dream is ending and he can't stop it.

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JCK:

I think it's at least possible that the BOOM is correct that there's some national tightening going on.

I also think that Obama's EV situation is pretty damn good, especially if the large polling lead in VA is real.

Let's see what the debate does over the next few days. The insta-polls generally show Obama winning.

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

boomshak name ONE state poll showing signs of collapse? Just one. Waiting boom****.

Wait for it moonbat, wait for it...

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muckinello:

The view at 11:20 is this:
Obama McCain
Today
Research 2000: 52 (52) 41 (41)
Reuters/Zogby: 49 (48) 44 (44)
Battleground: 50 (51) 44 (43)
Rasmussen: 50 (50) 46 (45)
Diageo/Hotline: 49 (49) 41 (41)

Some "collapse" eh?

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zotz:

Hey boom, the rats are abandoning ship!

"Obama may have taken a shot at Fox News during the debate, but the commentators weren't too hard on him afterward.

Brit Hume said that it didn't appear to him "that this was the kind of debate in which somebody was a huge winner with a knock out punch."

Continuing the boxing metaphor, Juan Williams also said "a knock out punch" wasn't delivered by McCain,.

Bill Kristol didn't think that McCain pushed hard enough on Obama's claims about providing tax cuts.

"If they're both for tax cuts, and Obama's a little nicer to the middle class, I don't think that's a victory for McCain," Kristol said.

And Fred Barnes, Kristol's Weekly Standard colleague, said that Obama "made it look easy for him" and "mastered" the debate format."
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/

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Inkan1969:

I thought that people were going to ignore boomshak. People are still responding to his trollbait. Even NWPatrick, after spamming all the boards telling people not to talk to him.

Like how someone pointed out, the preferred way to shut this asshole down is to boycott his posts. Can't people do that, is banning him really the only way for people to stop going along with this bastard's sick game?

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MiriamvG:

Can everyone stop giving attention to boomshak (will only mention his name once)? For every correct observation, he makes numerous flawed ones and his misjudged the situation several times. Those of you who are annoyed by it should not give him the credit - ignore him.

Looking at the trend, I see a slight tightening of the race (which I would expect to continue), though Obama's lead is substantial and fairly stable. But noone can predict the last 19 days, which is why we look at the polls... and not just one, but the trend.

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Viperlord:

Lol. Looking pretty good so far, should be interesting to see what the polls look like by the weekend.

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wakeup:

Obama is worried... Cash is not widening the polls. 'Association ads' will deliver VA and NC for McCain.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@everyone except boomdullard

Why does everyone insist on engaging this moron anymore. He used to be funny and occasionally would provide some insight into the situation. Since the election has turned against him he's grown increasingly troll like and has nothing to offer except stupid canned answers.

He can't answer any questions and he's really lost the humor aspect that made him used to make him bearable. Must we continue to engage someone who is just here to make reasonable intelligent people angry?

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NW Patrick:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/16/obama-ad-goes-after-mccai_n_135146.html

Wow it is awesome when you can run an add and just PLAY THE TAPE of your opponent. Great ad Obama!

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Viperlord:

Yeah, Obama's really collapsing, hence the reason he's considering expanding into more states...... Idiots. And VA going McSame, LOL. Someone needs to learn how to read a poll.

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Inkan1969:

@wakeup

McCain bombed very badly in his answer about the Ayers/ACORN controversy. More association ads will hurt him that much more. He needs to drop that line now. You were the one who wanted to know about the "Arab American" preference even though they don't make up a substantial voting block, and you talked about sleeper cells. You should really think about how you've embraced a bigoted personality that's made these association ads appealing to you.

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NW Patrick:

Wow McCain is down -206.29 in the DOW per some people's reasoning.:)

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zotz:

Inkan1969-
Your anti-boom initiative was bound to fail. It's boring to only talk to people you agree with. We need somebody to act as a foil.

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Inkan1969:

@zotz

He is not a foil. He is a high school bully whose effect on this board is corrosive. There is no justification for his behavior, or for the foolishness of people elevating him. He very much needs to be boycotted or banned. In contrast, truebljb1, Stillow, and KipTin have generally been much better behaved.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@zotz

Yeah but he really isn't a foil anymore. He used to answer questions that were put to him. Now he just plows ahead with his talking points and ignores questions about his methods and facts.

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Pat:

@boomshak,

You are making fools of yourselves by speaking too soon. You should wait until next Monday or Tuesday to make your point.

I can say confidently that polls will widen by early next week, as it always does.

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DTM:

Looking at Pollster's national chart and playing with the sensitivity, what we seem to have right now is a preliminary indication of a possible leveling out of the trends. But the default setting actually just shows a leveling for McCain and a continued upward trend for Obama, and the least sensitive chart shows neither. So, basically, we need more polls to know for sure.

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wakeup:

Inkan,
The sleeper cell response was directed at a post who accused McCain of heading a sleeper cell... I should not have dignified that with a response. The arab-Amer issues was an honest question... I did not mean to offend.
The Ayers ACORN issue has only just begun, prepare yourselves.
NW,
Oil below 70 a barrel... good for the country, bad for Obama

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thoughtful:

@zotz

The most important polling number is the Independents.

The wilder numbers that Obama has achieved recently are the direct cross overs from McCain (39%) to Obama (53%) (pissed with the tenor of the McCain campaign or Palin), they maybe are now going home or not voting at all. you can see that for the last week or so more repubs ahave been intending to Obama than Dems for McCain.

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zotz:

Stillow is a rube.
Kiptin is a liar.
I don't know truebljb1.

You can talk to who you want.
I am far more offended by a newbie that comes here and tells me who I should talk to when I've been here for several months.

Who the F*** are you?

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Ryguy:

pat, all boom does is make a fool of himself. hes already declared it over for his candidate several times before coming on hours later shouting about how it will be a statistical tie by the next day! hes lost any point of reference and has now just trying to convince himself that he is correct. im awaiting his infamous predictions for the weekend... those are always wrong, whoops, i meant to say fun.

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wakeup:

thoughtful,
Recent polls have McCain slightly ahead of Obama among Inds, do they not?

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Inkan1969:

@wakeup

What would the Arab American vote matter to you? How would that result influence your decision?

As for ACORN, it's becoming clear that the ACORN scandal is actually a ploy by the Republicans to steal the right to vote from as many as 200,000 people in Ohio

http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2008/10/jennifer_brunner_says_courts_d.html

200,000 people could be denied the right to vote because of this false scandal. That's the real threat to democracy.

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wakeup:

Inkan,
I am curious by nature... when in politics it is wise to know the electorate.
Regarding ACORN... the ball is in the Supreme Court. How much did Woods give ACORN? I know how much they gave AAAN.

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southern angler:

LOOK EVERYONE...Becarefull not to let Obama's falling numbers hit you on the head.
This is great news for McCain, state polls will be following the massive drop in his national numbers.
I was hoping Obamas numbers would hold up for until the actual election so most of his followers would think he had the election in the bag and decide to stay home. Most of them will probably still stay home anyway.

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BOOMFAIL:

I'm STILL waiting for the intelligent explanation of McShame's path to victory.

FL, VA, OH, MO, NM, CO, NC, NV, IN.
McShame must win ALL OF THEM!

Now...of the above states, how many must Obama win???

I'll answer that one for you too. ONE.

Anyone, anyone, anyone??

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southern angler:

Now that McCain has brought up ACORN and tied Obama to them like dog in the yard, I believe this will reduce Obama's numbers even faster, I would expect McCain to be up in nearly all swing states by next week. Of course the polls will show an Obama lead to the very end as they always do for dems. I like most Americans saw McCain maul Obama like a child, he is a true leader and not a hack like Obama, I would think if you guys where really honest with yourselves then you would agree with me.

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justdoit:

Get the Facts!

The Facts:
ACORN, a grass-roots community organizing group, faces allegations of filing fraudulent voter registrations in several states. Sen. John McCain, reflecting rising Republican concerns about ACORN, said at the debate "we need to know the full extent of Senator Obama's relationship with ACORN." Obama said any fraudulent registration "had nothing to do with us. We were not involved." And members of the Obama campaign have said the campaign has never paid ACORN to register voters.

On its Web site, ACORN confirms Obama's legal work, saying he "was one of the attorneys there who successfully represented a coalition of groups including ACORN in a legal case that won better enforcement of the National Voter Registration Act in Illinois." The case was filed in 1995. While ACORN said Obama "never organized with or worked for ACORN," it does mention other ties. Obama "accepted two invitations to be an unpaid guest speaker at training for volunteer community leaders organized by Chicago ACORN." That was in the early 1990s.

Additionally, the Obama campaign paid a political consulting group called Citizens' Services' Inc. more than $800,000 early this year for vote canvassing, such as knocking on doors and urging people to vote. The group in turn subcontracted a "small amount" of those funds to ACORN "for recruitment and training of canvassers," ACORN said. Obama campaign advisers stressed in an Oct. 14 teleconference that the campaign paid Citizens' Services Inc. for canvassing, but not voter registration.

The Verdict:
False. Obama's legal work was his only professional tie to the group, but he also spoke at volunteer training sessions and his campaign had a contract with a group that worked with ACORN.

Filed under: Barack Obama • Fact Check

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thoughtful:

@undecided/wakeup


Independents on the polls that I have been looking at are/have been breaking on average 55% Obama 45% McCain.

R2K is 51% 41%; +14% Obama advantage today with Zogby!

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zen:

to southern angler

Sorry, obama ground operation is so well organized, they will do even pick up service on election day for voters.
and they have all the cell phone numbers of supporters, they will text message for nov. 4th.
all the volunteers will knock on the doors until everybody goes out to vote.
So, Obama will outperform poll by 2-3 points.

Why don't you volunteer for Mac?

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Trosen:

Yea.. he'es really running scared.. haha.

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1851028,00.html

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kerrchdavis:

"I would expect McCain to be up in nearly all swing states by next week"

ROFLMAO!!!

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Batony:

I think the one good thing for McCain out of last night's debate is the tax issue. His line about why would you raise anyone taxes in a financial crisis will resonate in those critical red states. And the Joe the Plumber references were really effective. The abortion issue also helps McCain. I was really surprise to see Obama elaborate on that.

I think the McCain camp finally has a narrative against Obama...whether it's works in the last two weeks remains to be seen. Of course two weeks is an eternity in politics.

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Inkan1969:

@southern angler

"As they always do for dems"? Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry were all down in the polls going into their elections. I honestly think McCain did poorly in the debate. And what kind of mind comes up with an analogy like "mauled him like a child"?

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BOOMFAIL:

The abortion issue HURTS McShame among women. it only helps his base of right Wingnuts that are in the bag for him already. Independent women are FUMING over the """"Health"""" comment!

Koolaid anyone?

____________________

southern angler:

Obama didnt denie $836,000 he gave to ACORN. Obama is guilty as sin, you can tell by the defeated look on his face. It was a classic gotcha moment.

You guys really should keep a more open mind, you may look really silly on election day.

Did any of you guys see the Howard Stern videos of the Obama supports that like really thought he did good by picking Sarah Palin as the VP, its the funnist thing you will ever see.

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

The abortion issue absolutely does NOTHING to help McCain, particularly when you consider that most independents are pro-choice.

All McCain did last night was shore up his shored up base. Poll after poll and focus group after focus group has Obama winning the undecideds. Even a fox news focus group resulted in 4 people deciding to vote for Obama after the debate vs 0 for angry, bitter McCain.

Expect the nationals to stay the same as red states get redder while swing states turn more blue. From an electoral standpoint, Obama's lead will continue to grow.

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Trosen:

Batony:

"The abortion issue also helps McCain. I was really surprise to see Obama elaborate on that."

This is why you and your ilk fail so very miserably. No... the majority of Americans are not rabid pro-life. Study after study, poll after poll proves it. It's that sort of delusion that is making your party irrelevant. If you really think that McCain getting up there last night and saying "this 'woman's health' stuff is overrated." is going to HELP him.. just wait for the next few days of polls and debate reaction. Clueless man.. just clueless.

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Inkan1969:

@southern angler

What defeated look? And does "Did any of you guys see the Howard Stern videos of the Obama supports that like really thought he did good by picking Sarah Palin as the VP, its the funnist thing you will ever see." have any resemblance to good English?

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kerrchdavis:

New Obama ad of the debate. This ad absolutely kills McCain for all those dumb faces he was making.

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1859660952

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kerrchdavis:

@Inkan

lol!

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southern angler:

This is what I mean by mauled like a child, Obama knows first hand.

DO THE MATH!

http://www.nationalenquirer.com/obama_sex_perv_scandal/celebrity/65575

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Batony:

@Boomfail:

The abortion issue does not hurt McCain in Va, NC, OH, MO, IN, NV, WVa....

I think in the last two weeks for the Rep...it will be imperative for Sarah Palin to hammer the message of "liberals taxing and spending" in Washington. She is by far the better speaker, will draw the biggest crowds, and the local media attention. McCain is just terrible on TV. His closing argument was horrible.

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kerrchdavis:

@southern angler

Ok, I'll do the math:

Kerry States + IA + NM + CO + NV + MO + ND + OH + WV + VA + FL = 357 Electoral Votes.

Just to give you some hope, I did not add NC, where Obama is also tied/leading in all polls.

____________________

southern angler:

I can't help it if most Obama supporters are stupid.

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Inkan1969:

It looks like what happened to ACORN was that it made the mistake of offering to pay people to register to vote. That opened the door for people to sucker ACORN by turning in fake registrations for money. ACORN was then obliged by law to turn over the registrations. The thing is, there's no way anyone can use these registrations to cast votes. C'mon, "I'm Mickey Mouse and that's my registration"?

BTW: What does math have to do with sex pervs.

____________________

Trosen:

I think southern angler is alankeyesisawesome in drag.

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Inkan1969:

@southern angler

A person with such lousy grammar is in no position to call others stupid.

____________________

southern angler:

Wow you guys are really nasty little people.
I appreciate the grammer lesson. Inkan, you should work on your manners.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

A powerful new ad opposing Palin/McCain on the issue of rape.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IS0PJdE0Cs

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DTM:

I believe the polling shows that people favor a health exception in late term abortion bans by something like a 2:1 margin. So just with respect to the issue, McCain's stance certainly doesn't help him. But what actively hurts him is the manifest contempt he feels for anyone who disagrees with him on this issue (which, again, is a substantial majority of the American people).

____________________

Inkan1969:

@southern angler

So it's good manners then to call people stupid...

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@southernangler

who the hell are you to talk about "good manners" or "nastiness" when you call people "stupid?"

hypocritical idiot.

____________________

Batony:

@Kerrchdavis:

No one cares about faces at this point in the election. The point I'm making, is that McCain finally has a narrative that's resonates with the current economic crisis. By claiming that Obama will take money from your pocket and use it as he pleases...is effective. And to have an actual person as an example is even more effective.

Don't look for an immediate poll to reflect the effectiveness, it will take the McCain Camp pounding the issue home for it to have an effect.

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southern angler:

By the way I have noticed that most of you that post here are posting thought out the day, everyday. Which brings me to question if any of you have jobs, seriously how do you keep a decent job if you blog here so much. I'm guessing that most of you do not have jobs or are not productive in anyway. If so your options of polictics are greatly deminsihed. I'm going to find a website with real productive working Americans to share valid options with, not a bunch of nasty mouth lossers, sorry you miss out.

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southern angler:

You guys where the first to insult the Howard Stern video guys. I was calling them stupid, not you.

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John:

What on earth happened to this poll 2 days ago? It went from +13 (as a four day tracker) to +8 as a five day tracker), in other words they added one day and average dropped by 5 points. For this to happen the day's sample they added must have had McCain winning by double figures. I realise that the sample size is (very) small at 200 but that is quite remarkable. It's also going to take about a week in order, for this day's sample, to work itself out of this tracker.

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kerrchdavis:

@batony

Well, I'm afraid we'll just have to disagree. If you really think that "character" and "likability" have no effect on undecided voters at this point in time, then I honestly think you are nuts.

History has shown us time and again that debates rarely have major effects because of substance. Instead, if anything, debates have changed elections because they televised a candidates flaws in demeanor, respectability, personality. Instances such as the Al Gore "sigh" and the George Bush "watch check" are recent examples.

In response to your criticism of immediate polls, I will say this: In the 3 debates previously, most of the immediate polls showed an Obama victory. Polls that came out after agreed with those instant polls as did trends in state and national polling. It has been quite consistent.

I am not disputing that McCain made some good points, he did. But to simply focus on a few of McCain's points, ignore the excellent rebuttals by Obama and then ignore how disrespectful McCain came across the entire time the debate took place is not a very objective view in my opinion. More undecideds will move towards Obama as a result of this debate and McCain's poor attitude towards his very likable opponent.

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boomshak:

@zotz:

I agree with you. We come here for a little verbal fisticuffs. What fun would it be if this board were nothing but moonbats congratulating each other on the latest biased polling?

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wakeup:

Joe Wurzelbacher hurts Obama in Ohio
Murtha hurts Obama in western PA
Ayers hurts Obama in VA & NC
Oil Prices hurt Obama nation wide
ACORN... let's here what the Supreme Court has to say

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boomshak:

Recall That in January 1993, Bill Clinton Abandoned His Tax Cut Pledge

Remember this the next time Obama repeats his promise of a middle-class tax cut:

Clinton Now Says: The 'Big Things' Never Included his Tax-cut Vow

By Paul F. Horvitz

Published: FRIDAY, JANUARY 15, 1993

WASHINGTON: Seeking to explain why he is backtracking on a campaign promise to cut taxes for the middle class, President-elect Bill Clinton said Thursday that the plan was never a major theme in his race for the White House.

Mr. Clinton, speaking at a news conference a day after saying he would have to "revisit" his tax-cut plan, said Americans voted for him because of the "big things" he wanted to do.

The middle-class tax cut, he said, was not among them.

He said he was "absolutely mystified" that the news media had perceived it as a major pledge. In interviews Wednesday, Mr. Clinton said that, because of worsening deficit projections,"I have to put everything back on the table."

Mr. Clinton spoke throughout the campaign of the need to redress declining middle-class incomes during the 1980s. He proposed a tax cut for the middle class nearly a year ago, in New Hampshire, and repeated the pledge frequently.

But in the weeks since his election, two things have changed. The government's estimate of growth of the federal budget deficit over the next five years has grown about $60 billion. Also, the new team of Clinton economic advisers has apparently made new calculations and concluded that the tax cut idea is not tenable if Mr. Clinton wants to reduce the deficit and also move ahead with an "investment" program to revive the economy.

Growing deficit estimates require a president to shift gears, he said, adding: "I think that it would be irresponsible for any president of the United States ever not to respond to changing circumstances."

Before he even took office, Bill Clinton was saying, "whoops, nevermind" about one of the right-leaning promises that convinced Americans he was a moderate. (It took another three years and a Republican Congress to get him to achieve the other, which was welfare reform.)

In January 2009, we will hear the same old song and dance. We will be told the deficit is worse than expected, the need for new spending is too great, and we will be told that the tax cuts will have to be trimmed or eliminated entirely. None of Obama's spending proposals will be tossed aside.

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kerrchdavis:

@southernangler

"I can't help it if most Obama supporters are stupid."

This was not in reference to Howard Stern. But nice try.

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logic001:

As Trosen notes, it looks like some red states are getting redder, and that makes sense from what we know of the red state demographic: Scots-Irish roots, wary of government (from the English conquest of the Scottish clans), and pride in stubborn devotion. Last man standing in the Confederacy, never give up, etc. etc. I met a lot of these guys in the Army way back when, I know the type.

So that's them. The real question of course is what sways independents. I think Obama's got that down to a science. I had not seen the first two debates but saw the last one, and I honestly felt sorry for McCain. There's a lesson there for all of us, actually, which is that once you're 70 or older, you have to avoid battles that require months of daily effort. McCain should be doing something less strenuous, while making use of his insights on the moral high ground re: torture, etc. But at 72, he's just frazzled and I hope for his sake he gets plenty of rest and a way to salvage some honor after Nov. 4.

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wakeup:

Obama looked so sleepy last night I wanted to offer him a pillow.

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boomshak:

GALLUP LEAD DOWN TO 6 FROM 11 IN ONE WEEK! LEAD AMONGST LIKELY VOTERS FALLS TO 2!

"The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error."

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wakeup:

FBI steps up investigation of ACORN... looking into national coordinated effort.

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wakeup:

Every sound bite from Joe the Plumber chips away at Obama's lead.

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DTM:

Yes, I am sure Joe the Plumber trashing Social Security is going to be swinging Florida McCain's way.

____________________

wakeup:

DTM,
It has started. Media attacks on Joe the Plumber... Game changer.

____________________

s.b.:

Gallup's new numbers just came out, Obama +2% on their standard poll. And a shift of one point towards McCain in RV's and 2 points in their BS made up poll, never used before of LV's that doesn't account for voting patterns. A general shift to McCain is clearly happening over the past few days.

____________________

s.b.:

Did someone just ask for a shift in state polls? Ohio just went back to toss up on the map. Wait a week.

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NeverMetAnHonestLib:

The new shift in momentum toward McCain has begun. The MSM won't be able to contain it. Joe the plumber is the epitome of normal America, and the elites can't EVEN comprehend the affect he'll have on people's attitudes.

Real people are Joe the plumber. Real people are Sarah and Todd Palin. Real people ARE NOT Barak Obama, Katie Couric, or even William Kristol, an extreme opposite.

Joe the plumber sees Barak Obama for who he is--a tax and spend liberal that wants to keep him from achieving his dream. Joe sees through Barak's hollywood-created "messiah" image and recognizes the honest-to-God socialist Obama truly is.

This is the beginning of McCain-Palin's last-minute victory push across the finish line. You are the REAL American here, Joe. America is filled with men like Todd Palin and Joe the plumber and we WILL set America back on the right course. Lead the way, Joe! You are a real American hero. You are one of us!

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PJ_FFM:

@boomshak

You tend not to quote a certain additional info, given by today's Gallup:

"Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University."

Judging from the polls on the debate, I'd figure "McCain and Company" are up for another phase of bad news after a brief break.

According to Nielsen http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/383-of-households-in-top-local-tv-markets-watched-mccain-and-obamas-final-debate/, 38 % of US households watched the debate, CNN sees a 58/31 Obama victory, CBS's uncommiteds break for Obama 53:22, the result of the Greenberg focus group http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/15/stan-greenberg-s-focus-group-quot-decisive-quot-for-obama.aspx lists before/after favs/unfavs as

Obama +30 fav / -10 unfav (spread: +50)
McCain -4 fav / +14 unfav (spread: -18)

But then of course, that's probably just the biased libbbberal mainstream (whatsoever, in short: EEEEEEEVIL!) media lying to the US American public, the polulation of the world's most magnificent land of hockey moms and their Joe Sixpack husbands...

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Incumbent:

@wakeup

CNN's panel of 30+/- undecided voters who watched the debate live while dialing in their reactions agreed unanamously after the debate(with the exception of one Republican lady) that they didn't give a sh*t about Joe the Plumber. The panel was made up of 40% Dems, 30%, Reps, and 30% Ind. One Independent man said something to the effect of, "Why should I care if he has to pay a little extra on $250,000 when I'm making $50,000 and can barely pay my bills?"

Better hope most Independents don't feel the same...

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DTM:

@wakeup

I suspect we are about nine minutes into of Joe's 15 Minutes of Fame. But we shall see.

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