10/10-12, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Obama 50, McCain 45
If Obama can maintain at least a 3-5 pt lead among likely voters then he should be in good shape.
Looks like there is a slight tightening in both Rasmussen and Gallup. Hopefully this will help the Obama folks from becoming complacent.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:06 AM
It's rock solid stable at this point . . . 18 days and counting.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:08 AM
If the stock market recovers Obama might need to worry.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:11 AM
OMG!OMG!OMG! McCain blinks on taxes!
"McCain abandons plan for new tax cuts"
"On Sunday, hours before attending a big strategy meeting at McCain campaign headquarters, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Bob Schieffer on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that McCain was planning “a very comprehensive approach to jump-start the economy, by allowing capital to be formed easier in America by lowering taxes."
But when the meeting ended, so did plans for a new economy push. The campaign now says no new policy announcements are planned. Participants in the meeting refused to say what happened.
“We’re locked down,” said one official.
Politico reported McCain advisers' descriptions of the plan in articles on Saturday and Sunday.
Jackie Calmes of The New York Times, who first reported the plan’s collapse on Sunday night, pointed to “internal confusion” about the matter."
McCain is going to pull the next rabbit out of the hat....which if wildly popular should last 3-5 days until people see that it is just more McCain erratic behavior and wonder if they want a guy this unstable as president......while thier economy melts away
expect boomcrap to come in soon and claim how the race has "tightened" to a 5-point Obama blowout
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:12 AM
I'm not sure a stock market surge will hurt Obama. It won't change the fundamentals around employment, wages, layoffs, and overall corporate misconduct, etc.
Besides, I don't think you'll see enough of a surge over 3 weeks to make any difference.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:15 AM
Hotline Poll Obama leads by 6%
According to the Hotline Poll today;
Obama leads McCain 51% to 38% in the battleground states of CO, MI, NH, NM, NV, FL, OH, PA, VA, WI.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:16 AM
Again, looking good, nice and stable for the time being. And LOL at McLame flip flopping.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:19 AM
North Dakota a Toss Up?
Obama - 45
Also regarding the Hotline Poll they have switched party ID to Dems 40% Reps 37% which is crap
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:21 AM
I think the point here and point there variation we have seen in the polls over the last several weeks represent nothing but normal statistical fluctuations in the data. People like to focus us margins between the candidates, and those data certainly are not unimportant, but I have seen almost no one commenting about the consistency of Obama's lead. Except for a short period after the Republican convention, Obama consistently has best McCain in almost every single poll for the last four-and-a-half months. I think that is the most important fact before us.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:24 AM
"I'm not sure a stock market surge will hurt Obama. It won't change the fundamentals around employment, wages, layoffs, and overall corporate misconduct, etc."
Bingo.. people have been pi$$ed off with this economy long before the Wall Street tumble. If the Dow recovers quickly, then McCain could take some credit for helping push through the bailout bill (although lately he's tried to play the other side and say he killed the first one), but Obama can make the same claim as they both supported the bill. The Dow recovering 2000 points offers no imediate help to the recently layed-off, the uninsured, those forclosed upon, etc.
Wow, the battleground state results are amazing. I'll be interested to see some individual state polls.
Right now the national polls are becoming irrelevant, unless you saw a dramatic shift. It's all about the state polls and the electoral math. Show me OH/VA/NC/PA/NH/CO/NV/NM/IN/FL/MO.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:25 AM
what is this nonsense about the stock market surging and Obama's support collapsing? That's the most ridiculous hyperbole I've ever read. All the sudden people are going to say "well, when the stock market was dropping McCain didn't know what he was talking about. I didn't trust him. But now that the stock market has surged for two days the economic crisis is suddenly over and I can suddenly vote for the old guy again" ??
Obama needs a bad econmy; if the market rebounds with unemployment at 6% and oil dropping below $80 his argument weakens... picture polls in Indiana and Ohio adjusting.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:27 AM
Hotline needs to leave their party ID numbers at 41 D 36 R instead of chaning them every day or couple of days
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:28 AM
The favorable/unfavorable ratios for McCain/Palin are catastrophic for anyone planning a comeback. You can see it on RCP at now 14 points!! And rasmussen internals. I n my opinion, you have to reverse these before people start to reconsider thier preference for voting....18 days? Unlikely...
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:29 AM
Perception is reality... without the media screaming "Great Depression" an individual might respond to a poll differently.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:31 AM
Hehe, silly conservative market watchers: voters don't care about these market fluctuations and the financial crisis isn't going away anytime soon. Regardless, Obama has already locked up what he needs, anything he gets from here is just icing on the cake.
I think the view of market is naive. The market can't "recover" in 3 weeks. The market is well below where it was when George Bush took office! It will take the market nearly a year to recover, if not longer.
The gulf between rich and middle income is so wide right now that people won't be looking at a 3 week stock market "surge" and suddenly deciding Mccain's leadership is what we need.
Obama has done a nice job of positioning himself and someone w/ the vision to avoid getting the country into these messes (Iraq/economy/education) and I'm not sure Mccain can close the next 3 weeks with, "See, the economy is rebounding and that's why I should be president." Makes no sense...
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:32 AM
And wasn't it just two months ago that all the pubbies were saying that high oil prices helped McCain? Oh, it's those incredible moving goalposts again...
National Debt When Jimmy Carter ...arrived at the White House:
Added during Carter's four years: $337 billion.
Added during Ronald Reagan's eight years: $1.6 trillion.
Added during George H. W. Bush's four years: $1.6 trillion.
Added during Bill Clinton's eight years: $1.5 trillion.
Added during George W. Bush's seven years, nine months: $4.5 trillion.
Portion of the $9.5 trillion added to the national debt during the past 31 years and seven months that came during Republican presidencies: $7.7 trillion.
Percentage of that $7.7 trillion added during George W. Bush's two terms: 58%.
Could somebody explain again what "fiscal conservative" means?
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:34 AM
The economy has bottomed out, the Republican is continuing to languish in the low 40's, and they're being massively outspent. As always, that can only mean one thing:
GREAT NEWZ!!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:38 AM
The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
- Obama continues to hold a double-digit advantage in battleground states. The IL Sen. leads 51-38% among LVs in CO, MI, NH, NM, NV, FL, OH, PA, VA and WI.
- The number of LVs who feel the U.S. is headed in the right direction has hit a new record low. Just 7% say things are going in the right direction, while 86% say things are seriously off on the wrong track.
- Obama has expanded his margin on the economy. The Dem nominee leads 50-36% on who LVs feel would do the best job handling the U.S. economy. This 14% lead is his largest advantage on the economy since he led 48-34% in the survey completed 9/25. His 50% share is also the first time either candidate has hit the halfway mark in a month.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/10-12 by FD, surveyed 823 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 40%D, 37%R, 18%I.
Great illustration of how the Republicans help the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. They redistribute the wealth from the have nots to the have mores.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:39 AM
Yes, strange about the varying party IDs - anyone know what the point of that is?
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:45 AM
Important thing today is Ras battlegroud polls due 5 pm, that is what matters at this point.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:46 AM
Wow - Obama up in ND!!!
I wonder how that will factor into Nate Silver's model.
I wonder what boom will say (he'll probably cite some poll from August of 2007 that has McCain up by 15 points).
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:48 AM
sunnymi, you stole my thunder. If these #s hold any accuracy then it's deadly for the McCain campaign. What it means is if this "tightening" of the polls over the last few days is accurate, it reflects a solidifying of the only the most fervent "base," (i.e. very red states getting even redder) and the chasm in the crucial toss-ups is actually getting wider. If some subsequent state polls (where the hell are they??)confirm this, it's another nail..
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:49 AM
Diageo/Hotline seems to underplay Dems and the attitude polls seem very much to support a hardened Obama support likely to actually produce a stronger result than 6%.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:50 AM
interesting, this is from RASS:
After one week of negative attack on Obama:
Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 51%. For McCain, that figure in unchanged since yesterday and represents his lowest favorability rating since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination in early June (see trends).
A closer look a these numbers suggests an even more substantial advantage for Obama—39% of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic nominee while 32% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. The comparable numbers for McCain are 23% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:52 AM
Dem advantage on handling the of economy will suffer with their 2nd bailout plan... Pelosi is a thorn on Obama's side.
cant we just vote tomorrow?
Kerrchdavis: Very true. Fiscal conservatism was stabbed in the stomach when Ronald Reagan took office, and both Bushes cut it's throat quite nicely/
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:53 AM
Dem advantage on handling of the economy will suffer with their 2nd bailout plan... Pelosi is a thorn on Obama's side.
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:54 AM
As a former conservative, I was astounded, having voted for Reagan enthusiastically (now regret) that other "conservatives" followed like hypnotised sheep and ignored Reagan's grotesque deficits (both financial and intellectual) to dance to the piper....
I just hope I don't get the same level of disappointment with Obama!
Posted on October 13, 2008 10:57 AM
Things look VERY good and solid right now. Let's assume that Obama holds all of the states in which he has held solid leads for several weeks. Short of calling McCain a "honky" at the debate, those should remain pretty solid. That makes his starting point 264 electoral votes. So, basically, all he needs to do is win ONE of the battleground states. Factor in that the list of battleground states seems to be growing daily. Traditionally red states like VA and NC went to tossup weeks ago. Now, more red states like ND, GA, MT, IN, MO, NV and WV are all back in play. Then you can throw in the traditional tossup states like OH and FL and we've got the makings for a real landslide here. Remember, all we have to do is win ONE of those states and it's over. Being pessimistic, lets assume that McCain holds the traditional red states like ND, GA, MT, IN, and MO. I'll just give those to McCain, although Obama could win any one of them (or all of them). Now he's got to hold on to NV and CO - both states where Obama leads. In the case of CO, Obama leads by a lot. Toss WV and VA onto the pile, as Obama is building solid leads in both. Let us not forget the clear lead in EV powerhouse Florida. Get all of that going, and NC and OH will turn blue too. Can't get complacent or overconfident, but this looks really good.
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:00 AM
@wakeup self proclaimed ally of broomshak
There is a very strong current and wind behind the Obama/Biden ticket.
As I have posted many times before there are far more ageists than racists. Even if McCain had great policy initiatives and a compelling campaign it would be uphill with a 72 year old candidate with the country facing some of the biggest challenges in history both at home and overseas.
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:04 AM
EVERYONE! In the words of a Great American, Ladies and Gentlemen, there is a canard around that suggests that Democrats now need a continuing downward spiral in the economy to be competitive. Nonsense. Nothing is going to turn things around for Pitbull with Lipstick and her running mate. The fact that the banks been saved, while Americans still have to manage with deteriorating health care, disappearing pension plans, and growing inequality (due to how the game is rigged, not because of merit) means Americans now want to know what is being done to stimulate job growth and income security. It's the usual bull from the right, that they have virtue and progress on their side, while Democrats feed off of misery. The opposite is true. If data and facts were decisive, Americans would vote Democrat all the time, since the hard evidence is that the economy and income equality both grow more during Democratic Administrations. It's a plain, simple fact. During GOP administrations, the economy tends to slow, while income inequality rises. Additionally, during GOP administrations, national debt and budget deficits go through the roof. So, if you favor economic growth and fiscal adulthood vote Democrat. If you want economic stagnation, growing income inequality and budgetary chaos, vote GOP. Just the facts, folks. End of story.
So now that we can't claim that the GOP is good for the economy, jobs, and fairness, we have to resort to sliming Obama? For the sake of economic growth, fairness, and public budgeting by adults, vote Democrat!
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:10 AM
market up 470...
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:11 AM
OH Obama +4
PA Obama +12
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:18 AM
Trends are more inmportant than individual poll numbers. Clearly from all the daily trackers but one the trend has swung back to McCain at this moment in time. We shall see how long that trend lasts and what effect it has on state polls. That is not yet clear.
Posted on October 13, 2008 11:38 AM
Trends are more important: Can not wait for the Gallup poll of likely voters one model obviously wrong based on 2004 and Model 2 which is a little bit better resmbling 2008. I think though with drudge; RCP trying somehow to find or even invent some momentum/some trend towards McCain, it somehow is both funny and sad at the same time.
Posted on October 13, 2008 12:33 PM
Now Gallup reports Obama is 10 points ahead, this doesnt make sense... 4+ jump in day? Is this normal?
Posted on October 13, 2008 1:22 PM
Comments: (you may use HTML tags for style)
Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.
Please email us to report offensive comments.
See our comment policy here. Note that we require commenters to share their email address via Typekey. We will never share your email address with anyone without your explicit permission.
MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR