10/14-16, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Obama 50, McCain 46
Rass:O+6 in MO
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:52 AM
Ras's MO poll showing Obams +6 is the biggie.
McShame loses MO, and it is over.
Yup, Obama maintaining and growing his lead in "red" states should have the McCain people very worried.
I think very few thought that MO would be in play this late in the game. Why can't McCain close the deal in traditionally red states? Why is he having problems in VA, NC, IN, MO, ND, FL, and OH?
Obama doesn't seem to be having any problem winning the blue states.
Bad new for McCain.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:02 AM
The way to 270 for Obama is getting more and more open. This is incredible.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:03 AM
Normally I like Rasmussen but this worries me:
"The two candidates are even among men while Obama leads by eight points among women."
How then is Obama only up by 4?
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:05 AM
It would be interesting to see the daily splits to see if there is any sign of a debate effect.
Nice and steady....I hope the shameful robocalling doesn't change any minds. We have been getting multiple smear calls in VA. I think people are smarter than the Republicans give them credit for.
If anyone thinks McCain has an edge on the ground game, they are completely clueless. In VA the Obama camp doesn't know what to do with all of the volunteers.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:06 AM
mandalorianarmy, there are some screwy #s given the crosstabs lately.. makes you go "hmmm.."
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:09 AM
@mandalorianarmy, you said "The two candidates are even among men while Obama leads by eight points among women.
How then is Obama only up by 4?"
He is probably assuming 50-50 split for Men and Women.
0.50 * 0.08 = 0.04 (4%)
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:17 AM
An 8% lead among 50% of the population equals a 4% lead among the entire population (8% X 0.50 = 4%).
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:21 AM
It is obvious by the maths that Ras is 50/50 with his gender. Well he'll correct that and other aspects as it gets closer to the election.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:28 AM
From Washington Post:
"Palin also made a point of mentioning that she loved to visit the "pro-America" areas of the country, of which North Carolina is one. No word on which states she views as unpatriotic."
Couldn't we find out with a nationwide poll: "Do you consider yourself Pro-America or Anti-America?" I wonder how her husband would answer.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:29 AM
Right I understand that it is accurate if it there is an equal amount of men and women voters but that wouldn't be accurate.
2004: Women 54% Men 46%
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:30 AM
The split should be 52/48, No cell phones, what is his demographic and minority spilt.
Tell you what Ras House effect noise 2%. Obama probably has an 8% lead in reality.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:31 AM
We've been receiving so many nasty McCain robocalls as late as 8 p.m. at night that we pretty much have gone to call screening (we're in Charlottesvile, VA)all evening. What a monumental waste of money by the McCain campaign. Don't they know how to target critical areas?
Charlottesville/Albemarle county is a great big lifeboat filled with centrist democrats, liberals, left-wing greenies and very moderate republicans in an ocean of right-wing conservatives much of the rest of the central/south part of the state is. I believe we voted something over 65% for for both Al Gore and John Kerry in the last two elections here, vs someting like 35% in Richmond. My numbers are purely from memory btw.
Anyway, we have a saying around here. A democrat in Richmond, VA is a republican anywhere else in the country. I think that the fact that Obama is doing SO well in this commonwealth really speaks to the eventual outcome of the election. My only worry, of course, is that voter apathy kicks in when the polls look this good.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:51 AM
Palin needs to GTFO. Pro-American bull**** rhetoric...
Catholics moving toward McCain... Thank You Palin.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:59 AM
"I'm very, very pleased to be cleared of any legal wrongdoing ... any hint of any kind of unethical activity there. Very pleased to be cleared of any of that." --Sarah Palin, after an Alaska legislative report found she had broken the state's ethics law and abused her power in the Troopergate scandal, conference call with Alaska reporters, Oct. 12, 2008
"I'm the mayor, I can do whatever I want until the courts tell me I can't.'" --Sarah Palin, as quoted by former City Council Member Nick Carney, after he raised objections about the $50,000 she spent renovating the mayor's office without approval of the city council
She's a complete moron, and a dangerous one at that, by extension anyone who votes the McCain/Palin ticket....
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:11 AM
Although there should be a few more women in the weighted sample, it is close enough to be well with rounding error.
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:21 AM
Posted on October 17, 2008 11:51 AM
Sure. Take an 8 point lead among women, even among men. Now weight according to something like 52% women, 48% men. What you get is a 4.16 point overall lead, within rounding of 4 points.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:27 PM
Oh, and even using 54% women, you are still at 4.32%, again within rounding error.
Posted on October 17, 2008 12:28 PM
I wonder if people understand that this means almost nothing. While in one poll Obama leads by 14% in another he leads by 4% in another by 12%. Wonder how people are going to react when McCain is announced the winner. I am sure they will say the same as they did with Gore. Even though the final count then was clearly a Bush win. Of course then there is always the 8 states which Acorn has committed fraud. The sun doesn't rise and set on Obamas head and if you look at how he won the senate, it's clear he is just another crooked politician. The radical changes that his campaign has announced should make people wonder what they are. Of course, A lot of people believe his lies. His promises are directly conflicting with his record. Obamanites are in for a suprise,
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:24 PM
The real scary thing is the guy who hates America, Uhh, that would be Obama, who clearly is anti american and a racist
Posted on October 18, 2008 2:30 PM
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