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US: Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen 10/26-28)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/26-28,08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 50, McCain 47

 

Comments
Trosen:

Go cwazy trolls.. go cwaaaaaazy!

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Dewey1858:

"It will take another day or so to determine whether todays numbers represent lasting change or statistical noise."

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Trosen:

Here's part of the narrative the trolls leave out..


"Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided."


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political_junki:

political_junki:
Did any one notice why Obama is +3 in Rass?
For the first time they have the 2 other candidates on the ballot.

Nothing in Rass points to a McCain surge:

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.


Obama's Fav/Unfav is +11, I dont know why some body said it is +1????


Obama has a five-point advantage among those who plan to vote but say that something might come up. Hispanic voters are more likely than others to say that something might come up to prevent them from voting.

Then, what is all the fuss?

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political_junki:

political_junki:
The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden: 49%
McCain/Palin: 42%
Undec 6%

***********************************************
----In the battleground states (CO, OH, MI, NH, NM, FL, VA, WI, NV), Obama has a 17 pt. lead - 54-37%.
***********************************************
--The number of early/absentee voters continues to tick up. These voters now make up 17% of the LV sample.

--McCain leads among men by 3 pts. (47-44%), but trails Obama among women voters by 16 pts. (37-53%).

--Among white women, the two candidates are essentially tied with McCain at 45% and Obama at 46%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/26-28 by FD, surveyed 870 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

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Trosen:

Let's read this part again boys and girls:

"Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided."

http://www.answers.com/topic/toast (see n.2)

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Kjartan:

I would like to see the election night live but Germany is 6 hours ahead of Eastern Time. What do you think: At which time will we know who is the winner of election?

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sherman:

Obama strong, as usual. Slight movement toward McCain, but nothing remotely promising for him. It's sad that his final parting shot is screaming "socialist!!!" and thinking that's going to sway anyone to vote for McCain.

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boomshak:

@political_junki:
The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

In the battleground states (CO, OH, MI, NH, NM, FL, VA, WI, NV), Obama has a 17 pt. lead - 54-37%.

THIS is the reason I completely discount this poll. There is NO F*CKING WAY Obama leads in battleground states by 17 points. No way.

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Obama008:

The race is getting close but obama is still 50%+. If it holds that he will win.

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paradski:

Ironically with this poll comes the news that this thing is over...

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

This thing isn't getting tighter, it's just that it's getting harder to find Obama supporter bcause they've already voted.

+9 in early voting and even with what is left over = President Obama!

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political_junki:

Race (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Colorado Associated Press/GfK Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 47, McCain 45 Obama +2
Florida Associated Press/GfK Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2
National Diageo/Hotline Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Nevada Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
New Hampshire Associated Press/GfK Obama 55, McCain 37 Obama +18
North Carolina Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Ohio Associated Press/GfK Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 51, McCain 42 Obama +9
Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Pennsylvania Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Virginia Associated Press/GfK Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
Washington Strategic Vision (R) Obama 54, McCain 42 Obama +12


By the way "Associated Press/GfK" was republicans favorite pollster last week that showed Obama +1.
Hmmmm, state polls lag one week behind national? Really boom?

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KMartDad08:

Although Ras has not gone Gallup on us by publishing 3 different sets of poll results, if you read the narrative on their website, you get the sense they're trying to distance themselves from the topline results. They point out differences in those "certain" to vote (O+1), those with a "high interest" in the campaign (O+4); and those who follow the race closely on a daily basis (O+5). Surely the answer is somewhere in there!

The bottom line is that Obama leads among those who have already cast their ballots (O+7) and is tied with Mac among those certain to vote, at 48. These results all bode well for Obama going into the final days of this campaign.

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Obama008:

But obama as this media event tonight that will pull some voter his way. 99% of people make up there minds 72 hours before a election. So they have till about friday.

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mandalorianarmy:

No! No! Boom screams Obama can't be doing so well in the states he's actually been campaigning in.

Just like he got the most delegates in the primary with the popular vote even, Obama will win the electoral vote because THAT IS ALL THE ONLY THING THAT COUNTS!

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jamesia:

Obama's holding steady, with a 9% lead among people who have voted already. McCain is gaining support he lost, likely from red states like GA, AZ, ND and MT. Will it help him in the end? No, because Obama doesn't need those states.

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TaxmanTC:

I think this poll shows the natural tightening of the polls as everyone expected and has happened in the past, but what it comes down to is the early voting which heavily favors Obama and the huge electoral vote lead he has right now which appears insurmountable to me unless Obama's informercial includes a tribute to OBL.

My prediction final elec. vote - Obama 306 - Mccain 232

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KMartDad08:

I've got a fun new game for us.

Let's try to guess which poll Drudge will link to tonight. Given the direction in the trackers, I'll guess Ras.

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political_junki:

"boomshak:
@political_junki:
The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

In the battleground states (CO, OH, MI, NH, NM, FL, VA, WI, NV), Obama has a 17 pt. lead - 54-37%.

THIS is the reason I completely discount this poll. There is NO F*CKING WAY Obama leads in battleground states by 17 points. No way."


How about "Associated Press/GfK" numbers today BOOM?
Wasnt it national +1 last week? I wonder why states have not followed?
Last week you were loving this pollster???
Any thoughts BOOM?

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boomshak:

Here's ANOTHER THING with the Hotline poll that makes no sense:

--McCain leads among men by 3 pts. (47-44%), but trails Obama among women voters by 16 pts. (37-53%).

--Among white women, the two candidates are essentially tied with McCain at 45% and Obama at 46%.

QUESTION:
How the hell can Obama and McCain be TIED amongst WHITE WOMEN, but trailing by 16 points amongst ALL WOMEN?

How is that mathematically possible? Only about 15% of the US population of women are non-white, correct? So if McCain ties Obama with 85% of the population, how can he trail by 16 points amongst 100% of the population?

Crazy.

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Obama008:

The polls will hold for McCain all the points McCain is getting is coming from people who are just starting to make up there minds.

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Obama008:

Boom I just looked at the poll, he is leading women by 16%. Obama that is.

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Thatcher:

Go look at RCP's general election graph - you will notice that 2 other times in this October - the polls did this exact same thing on the national level ... October 8 and October 19 (11 days apart) - the lowest we'll see Obama is today, Thursday or Friday and then he'll bump up again for the final 4 days.

This is nothing more than cyclical situation - in the national polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Meanwhile during all that time (including the 2 dips on October 8 and October 19) - statewide polls have continued to trend in Obama's favor.

In the entire month of October - Obama's national RCP average has never dropped below 48.1 and McCain's has never been above 44.5.

The states are what matter and they continue to show improvement for Obama. On RCP - Obama has 259 EV in his strong column and 52 in the leaning. Here on Pollster - Obama has 272 in his strong column and 39 in the leaning. Those are the #'s that matter.

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OGLiberal:

Some evidence in the internals....

Obama's unfavorables are up to 32. While not a big increase, that number has been consistent at about 30 for the last month (with a few trips to 31). His favorables and very favorables are still high and pretty much at his average. (56 over, 40 very)

McCain has jumped ahead among men, 51-46. They've been pretty tight with that demo for at least a week, with that number switching back and forth between a tie and McCain +1.

White women now favor McCain by +2. Better than the +5 recorded Monday but worse than the +1 McCain had yesterday. And as recently as a week ago, Obama led by 1 or 2 among this demo. (also scored a few ties)

Obama winning indies by +5. That's near the high end of his numbers among that group. But he's lost some Dem support. For the last week or so, McCain was getting 10 to 11pts from Dems while Obama was getting about 87 to 88 from the same group. Today, McCain is up to 13 and Obama is down to 85 among Dems. Obama is still getting 11% of Republicans, which is where he's been for a while.

Certain to vote for is now 46-43. Just a few days ago, it was 48-40.

Obama's very favorables with white women is down to +8. He was at +10 yesterday and +12 just last week.

He still leads among women by 11, which is pretty much his average over the last several weeks.

Not a lot of good news in here for Obama but he's still at 50%. Economy is still, by far, the top issue.

This tightening is likely due to reluctant conservatives finally conceding that they are going to vote for McCain and, to a lesser extent, formerly soft Obama supporters finally admitting that they can't and won't vote for a black dude. I don't think it has anything to do with any particular event or issue.

As I said in another post, I expected tightening and +3 this close wouldn't be horrible. But I'd be much happier if it were 51-48 instead of 50-47. I like the 50+1 cushion.

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political_junki:

@BOOM:
Agreed, lets ignore Hotline.

How about "Associated Press/GfK" numbers today BOOM?
Wasnt it national +1 last week? I wonder why states have not followed?
Last week you were loving this pollster???
Any thoughts?

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sherman:

Okay, boom, so let's use your favorite pollster today, Rassmussen, and see what he has for the battleground states, shall we?

CO O:50 M:46
OH O:49 M:45
FL O:51 M:47
VA O:51 M:47
NV O:50 M:46

Kind of looks like a blowout to me. But hey, I'm an optimist just like you. :)

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orange24:

It is kind of comical to see so many of the pollsters starting to release multiple sets of numbers. In four years, they all want to say they nailed the last election. So, they're all starting to put on 2, 3, 4 sets of numbers. One of them is bound to be close. Then they can just say 'nailed it'.

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boomshak:

Obama's event tonight will likely annoy as many people as it attracts.

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modrat:

You have to admit this is a good day for McCain. He seems to be gaining and Obama is holding steady. Not a game changer yet but the race is tightening.

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RS:

At the risk of engaging boomshak: All the "battleground" states listed, except FL, are either light or dark Blue. So the margin may not be 17%, but it could well be in the lower double-digits - probably within MOE.

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boolean_radley:

It seems the Republicans continue to believe they have a chance by confusing horse race numbers with Electoral Map standing. Someone should study these remarkable creatures.

Perhaps with earmarks from the Federal Government.

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KMartDad08:

CNN wouldn't sell Obama 30 minutes tonight, but they're broadcasting live Caribou Barbie giving a "policy speech". Give me a break.

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douglasdao:

All of the tracking polls are making sure their margins are narrowing so that the news services who pay them can have a story that the race is still alive. It's all about ratings and money. This happens EVERY presidential election.

Still shows a lead over the margin of error and the state surveys still speak of an Obama landslide.

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DCDemocrat:

Zogby yesterday observed that Obama enjoyed a lead among voters who already had cast their ballots and was tied among likely voters who had not cast their ballots. Rasmussen seems to agree. Daily Kos's internals suggest that McCain is leading only in the south. Given that the battleground numbers from AP favor Obama so strongly, it might be that McCain is enjoying regional support.

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paradski:

@boom

Please explain to me how McCain wins if this is true...

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.


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JCK:

Boom,

I don't know why I bother, but if you're going to complain, at least get the numbers right. You're dead wrong that 85% of the population is white.

77% of voters in 2004 (which is the relevant stat here) were white, according to CNN exit polls. White voters were 81% of the electorate in 2000

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

The number in 2008 is expected to be lower.

So rerun your calcs with 72-75% white population, rather than 85%.

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boomshak:

Man GWU/Battleground EXACTLY THE SAME again today - O+3. Weird to have a poll with no movement for 4 days.

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platanoman:

Boomshak, they said the same thing about the DNC convention in Invesco.

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hou04:
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political_junki:

"boomshak:
Obama's event tonight will likely annoy as many people as it attracts."

I agree, it will just saturate one day of news cycles. that is what it will accomplish.

Still waiting:
How about "Associated Press/GfK" numbers today BOOM?
Wasnt it national +1 last week? I wonder why states have not followed?


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Tom:

Here is the tightening we were expecting for the last week or so. I figured this would be here sooner. Still, the polls coming out on the state level are devistating for McCain. He cannot afford to lose CO, NV, OH, and VA, even if he does manage to steal PA, and Obama has been increasing his leads in those states. Heck, there is a poll out from AZ that is within MOE!!! In NV, the early votes from Clark and Washoe Counites (about 80% of the state's total population) have been running D 52, R 32, O 16. As John Ralston put it, "unless 'others' is having a love affair with John McCain, kiss Nevada goodbye, GOP."

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DCDemocrat:

Zogby yesterday observed that Obama enjoyed a lead among voters who already had cast their ballots and was tied among likely voters who had not cast their ballots. Rasmussen seems to agree. Daily Kos's internals suggest that McCain is leading only in the south. Given that the battleground numbers from AP favor Obama so strongly, it might be that McCain is enjoying regional support.

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political_junki:

"unless 'others' is having a love affair with John McCain, kiss Nevada goodbye, GOP."


ROFLMAO!!!

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DCDemocrat:

Sorry about the double post. My computer did something weird.

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cambridge blue:

Is it me or do Rass' numbers for the past month look tighter during mid-week polling (Tues/Weds)?

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hou04:

Charlie Cook from National Journal thinks:

"Unless something pretty earth-shattering happens, the presidential race is not so much about who wins. At this point, it's pretty clear who that is going to be. It's how big, how many states, what kind of margin and what kind of Congress Barack Obama will have to deal with."

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BOOMFAIL:

STILL WAITING!!!!

To all the wingnuts screaming today: Prove your confidence in a McCain win. Show us your purchase from Intrade today. You'll be swimming in money since you are so sure he will win. Proof is in the pudding, my friends. Scan your purchase on intrade and post it on a free image host site. Cross out any personal information, (have to tell the less educated that) but make sure it proves a McCain purchase from today. Easy money, right???

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Atomique:

Republicans are begrudgingly coming home to Bush III. But even winning all the Republicans isn't going to win this election for him. Obama has kept steady at 50%+, and he's bound to get at least some of those undecideds.

Hopefully the tightening in the polls in these last few days fires up the good guys to get out there volunteering and voting for change.

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DCDemocrat:

"boomshak:
Obama's event tonight will likely annoy as many people as it attracts."

I imagine it will annoy the people who are disposed not to like Obama but for those who are open to voting for him, it will be attractive. At this point, we're not targeting people who dislike Obama; we're targeting that very narrow band of persuadables.

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sunnymi:


In 2004 Kerry won the Women vote 51-48 but lost the White Women vote 55-44.

The demographics of the country have changed since then. We have only about 72-73% White and 27-28% Non-White Voters this time around. Of the White Voters Men account for about 34% and Women account for 38%. Of the Non-White Voters Men are about 12-13% and Women account for about 15-17%

So even if you are ahead only 1 point among WW, if you get >80%(even Kerry got 75% of them) of the NWW that gives you a 12-14% jump and that almost adds up to the 16% overall lead among Women.

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Chester:

Of course it's tighening, that's what always happens! But national polls mean nothing right now, Boom knows that! Mac isn't gaining nearly enough ground in the battles as he has to be; PA is worse today for him than yesterday!

And it doesn't look good for him... 2 things that are going to be very bad for him...

1) O's big tv hit tonight... I don't think this will change many minds, but it will solidify his base. I think he's aiming for this as a get out the vote move than a mind-changer, so expect lots of classic O rhetoric!

2) PALIN IS ABANDONING THE TICKET for the 2 days before the election to vote in Alaska!!!! Is this for real! She can vote by mail. The perceptions of her leaving the ticket on monday, as tensions between her and the campaign are more and more public, are going to be very damaging. Bad move.

Nov 4 will be: Obama wins with 3 - 4%, 310 EV's.

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Thatcher:

LOL - Palin was for Obama's energy plan before she was against it:

Today: "Barack Obama's energy plan sure has a whole lot of "No we can't.""

Aug 5 official press release from her Gov Office: Palin Pleased with Obama's Energy Plan

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boomshak:

I think by NOT releasing the videotape, the LA Times is hurting Obama more than if they released it. It leaves people to wondfer, "Damn, what the hell is on that thing anyway?"

If the LA Times had a video of McCain at a KKK Rally, do you think they would be so worried about "keeping their promise" to the person who gave them the tape?

Also, why give a videotape to a newspaper that you wanted kept secret? Why not just keep it secret? Makes no sense.

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ColoradoRider:

I really find all this partisan yammering entertaining -- I mean, I can't find this on any other site (sarcasm) -- but that being said, does anyone have any insight into the tightening? Rasmussen didn't reveal much in his daily report. Did a high-Obama day roll-off, or did McCain post a really good day?

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boomshak:

ColoradoRider:

I'll explain it for you.

1. Socialism.
2. Unfettered Liberal Power.

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AB:

Facts on the ground in NC (as of 9:00 pm Oct 28):
1,623,107 early voters so far (26.09% 0f registered voters)
876,440 Dems (54.00%)
464,596 Repubs (28.62%)
Difference of (LOOK AT THIS NUMBER!) 411,844

While turnout for Repubs compared to Dems is better than it was a few days ago, Dems are still turning out in much bigger numbers than Repubs.
That is to say the Repubs do not have any momentum in NC.
Compared with 1:00 am on Oct 26
Repubs have gone up from 27.81% to 28.62% of early voters.
And Dems have dropped from 55.02% to 54.00% of voters.
And yet during this time the total difference in voters has gone from
324,360 +Dem [655,937 - 331,577 = 324,360] to
411,844 +Dem [876,440 - 464,596 = 411,844]

This is called turnout.
This is what an enthusiasm gap looks like.

I'm pretty sure that turnout is actually higher than this, the NC SBOE seems to be lagging behind in their ability to report numbers. (They're fast, but they're not that fast.)

I'm pretty sure that this is what is going on in Georgia. It's just that the NC SBOE runs a complete database and displays it publicly.
Again, why are there no exit polls when the election is happening right now?

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sandman:

@ColoradoRider

Two good M nights sandwiched around a good O night. Last night had O only up 1.

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straight talk:

McCAIN LOOKS LIKE he is getting his support back! But there is one problem! I have not seen one state poll that shows McCain closing in, but Florida! Every Pa poll that came out today has Obama up by double digits! Obama is average is at probably 5%!

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Kjartan:

Why is there a discussion about palins future? Seems to me that the republican politicians do not believe they can win the election. Why should a voter vote for someone who obviously do not believe to win the election? Only some of the posters here believe the election is not over.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/29/gop-abuzz-over-palins-future-role/

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huetdebd:

@BOOMSHAK

i think it was last week or the week before that you posted a kids poll as proof that mccain would win. you said someting along the lines of "these kid polls have picked the last 15 out of 17 presidents". you even named the nickelodion kids poll as one of the ones that mccain won.
as proof that you give FALSE information
usatoday talked about this kid poll today.


"Two weeks ago, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama won Scholastic's presidential poll of 250,000 youngsters, USA TODAY's Greg Toppo reminds us. Last week, Obama took Nickelodeon's "Kids Pick the President" poll of about 2.2 million children. Now a third kids' "vote" gives him the edge over Republican John McCain, Greg reports:

The Weekly Reader Student Presidential Election Poll of more than 125,000 students, released today, shows Obama "beating" McCain 55%-43%. More than 125,000 young people, ranging from kindergarten to high school seniors, took part.

Straw polls of young people have been good barometers in past elections. Scholastic's has predicted 15 of the last 17 presidential elections. The Nickelodeon poll has pegged four of the past five winners. The Weekly Reader poll has nailed 12 of the past 13"

boomshak, you are a LIAR.

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truebljb1:

I'm being serious here (I'm a McCain supporter). Are you Obama people worried about the L.A Times video with Obama praisin Khaleidi where Bill Ayers and Dorn are present. It almost hurts him more they are not releasing it. That makes people VERY skeptical. Major Garret is reporting that the Obama camp is nervous. I'm just curious, please don't berate me for this. I'm just curious if you are nervous about it or not.

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hou04:

Daily update on the headlines from the people that bring is the IBD/TIPP poll:

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/

They sound so fair, balanced, and neutral to me. :)

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Thatcher:

trubljb1:

No. Not worried.

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huetdebd:

@TRUEBLJB1

NOPE.

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mysticlaker:

@trubljb1

the group that mccain ran gave 500K to the same guy in the 90's...

not worried at all.

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Flashlight:

From Ras:

CO O:50 M:46
OH O:49 M:45
FL O:51 M:47
VA O:51 M:47
NV O:50 M:46


This poll was brought to you by the letter O and the number 4.

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oicu:

new Quinnipiac polls out today:

PA: O 53 M 41
OH: O 51 M 42

There is no way for McCain to win without taking at least one of these.

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KMartDad08:

true--today is the last you'll hear about that tape. Obama dominates the news cycle from mid-day today through Friday, and nobody will think about that tape again.

By the way, 9 of the 10 polls on RCP this morning have Obama at 49 or 50. The only way Mac can possibly win is if he gets 100% of the undecideds. While the CW is that he'll get the lion's share (I'm not sure I agree), if Obama can even pull 20% of the undecideds, he'll be fine.

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BUS:

As to the divergence between the topline and the battleground states numbers (+7, +17), I'd second the notion that large leads in PA, OH, NH, CO, VA, NM, NV, IA would accomplish this quite handily. This, in short, is why Obama is winning.

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political_junki:

boomshak:
I think by NOT releasing the videotape, the LA Times is hurting Obama more than if they released it. It leaves people to wondfer, "Damn, what the hell is on that thing anyway?"


You live in your fantasies boom. Nobody cares about that video and if some people do, they are already voting for McCain. How many more times are you going to repeat this bull**** here? People didnt care about Ayres, do you really thing some guy wakes up in the morning and sayd "Oh yeah I am not gonna vote Obama because of that LA times video?"


STILL WAITING:
How about "Associated Press/GfK" numbers today BOOM?
Wasnt it national +1 last week? I wonder why states have not followed?
Last week you were loving this pollster???
Any thoughts BOOM?

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straight talk:

THAT IS FOX NEWS! AND IF THEY WAS SMART THAT WOULD NOT PUSH THIS BECAUSE McCAIN DID A FUNDRAISER THIS GUY!

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DTM:

@ColoradoRider

With the caveat that the averages underdetermine the dailies, what seems to have happened in Rasmussen is that two days ago a very good Obama day was replaced with a very good McCain day, then yesterday a good Obama day was replaced with another good Obama day, and then today a third good Obama day was replaced with a good McCain day (all relatively speaking, meaning for example a tied day is a very good McCain day but a very bad Obama day).

So, right now we have a very good McCain day, a good Obama day, and a good McCain day in the average. On balance that's much more good than bad for McCain, so he ends up with his best average in a long time.

Accordingly the next question, as Rasmussen is more or less saying himself, is what replaces the very good McCain day that rolls off tomorrow. If it is another very good McCain day (meaning the average stays around +3 or gets even narrower), then that would be further confirmation of a real tightening. If it is a good Obama day (meaning the average goes back up to, say, +5), then that will suggest the one very good McCain day was just some noise. If it is merely a neutral day (which would probably put the average around +4), then we probably need more information before drawing any conclusions.

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ColoradoRider:

@sandman

Thanks! Wow, a O+1 night last night? That should be concerning for the Obama camp -- I bet they're glad they have their primetime special on deck.

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Inkan1969:

@truebljb1

I heard that John McCain has actually funded Khaledi in the past. So McCain seems pretty in the tank with Khaledi:

BTW: I've been wondering, is your name short for "True Blow Job 1"?

-----------------

The Cuban American National Foundation has endorsed Barack Obama.

http://canf1.org/artman/publish/home_page/How_to_Win_the_Cuban_American_Vote.shtml

The CANF has been a leading voice against Fidel Castro among Cuban exiles in South Florida. They are the ULTIMATE Anti-Communists, some assert. :-) And they think BARACK OBAMA is the one best fit to fit Castro's communism.

____________________

mirrorball:

If the LA Times had a video of McCain at a KKK Rally, do you think they would be so worried about "keeping their promise" to the person who gave them the tape?

Yes, I do. You may not believe it, but most journalists take very seriously their promise to keep a source secret. I could rattle off a few examples for you: Watergate, Scooter Libby (as much as some people hate Judith Miller of the NY Times, she did spend a few weeks in jail for refusing to hand over her notes), Barry Bonds (two SF Chronicle reporters ordered to jail for refusing to divulge a grand jury leak source)

____________________

mysticlaker:

If only there was a way for Obama to talk to America to reinforce his message and talk about all the political noise...if only there was a way...

____________________

OhioCorn:

Let's say all the undecides come home for McCain and he takes 1% of Obama vote. OK, that leaves the popular vote close to tied, but in the battleground states it still leaves President Obama. After 11/04 do we care about anything but that?

____________________

KMartDad08:

As long as Obama is at or above 50% in the national popular vote, these great polls at the state level are entirely plausible. There is no evidence of widespread tightening, especially in the states needed to get to 270 (that is objective #1, and the Team Obama has never lost sight of that, even while pursuing their 50 state strategy). Obama could lose NC and FL and still win by a landslide.

____________________

DTM:

@truebljb1

No, both because of McCain's own association with this person, and generally because guilt by association is a fundamentally weak closing argument.

____________________

political_junki:

STILL WAITING:
How about "Associated Press/GfK" numbers today BOOM?
Wasnt it national +1 last week? I wonder why states have not followed?
Last week you were loving this pollster???
Any thoughts BOOM?

____________________

tar_heel:

I believe that Ras is most likely going to go back up tomorrow, albeit not by much. The Sunday survey about to rotate off was a great number for M, at the most 1 or 2 down (it was the number that tightened the poll from 8 to 5 a few days ago). I'll assume that Ras got numbers between a 4 and 5 point lead the last two nights, which accounts for the 3 point average.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Inkan1969:

Cubans voting for a Democrat? Say it ain't so Jose! I've worked campaigns in SoBe ... and though there are small pockets of Dems in the Cuban community - that the Republicans could see themselves losing their prominence in the community would be yet another blow.

____________________

BigTex:

@Boom

You ask why 16% of women support Obama more than McCain, but tied among white women. Simple, minority women, especially black women, are voting in droves while repub white women are not motivated anymore.

____________________

DTM:

@ColoradoRider

The thing is that daily samples showing Obama only ahead something like +1 likely have happened several times before in Rasmussen. Again, the really significant daily was apparently the one a couple days ago, and it was apparently followed by a good day for Obama.

____________________

NYCREALAMERICAN:

*****************************************************
QUINIPIAC NUMBERS POSTED
*****************************************************

* Florida: Obama 47 to McCain's 45 percent, compared to 49 - 44 percent October 23;
* Ohio: Obama up 51 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 38 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 41 percent, compared to 53 - 40 percent last time.


----------------------------------------------
These are the same as ever other swing state poll in the last week. BO up by double digits in PA. Up by high single in OH a state he does not need to win, and a close race in FL. another state he doesn't need to win.

Why is anyone watching the National numbers with 5 days left? Even if the Nat numbers close to 1-2, it will not reflect in state polling and with nearly 30% of votes cast before election day in the swing states, why does anyone care about national polling? Seriously - if you care about National trackers right now - you are in desperate need of being polled.

____________________

Dewey1858:

"If only there was a way for Obama to talk to America to reinforce his message and talk about all the political noise...if only there was a way..."

And if only that way could reach Pennsylvania voters, say, in conjunction with a major sporting event involving a popular Pennsylvania team ... if only ...

____________________

chrisinnc:

OK let me say this before I ask my question:

A) I am an Obama supporter and am not disposed to either freaking out over individual polls or demanding that there is a 0% chance Obama won't win.

B) I hope that when I ask my question, I don't get answers back that reflect either crazy Drudge talking points or crazy Kos talking points. In summary, I want analysis, not spin.

OK, the question: Does anyone have any real idea of why the national trackers have tightened (and they have) but the battleground state polling has expanded for Obama (and it also has)? If the Insider Advantage and Rass polls that show GA tightening and other polls that have NC staying at a tie are correct, then I doubt that this is a regional rise in the South for McCain. OH and FL also seem to be doing better for Obama this week over last week. Any ideas where the national tightening is coming from?

____________________

Inkan1969:

Yep. My parents live in Miami. They're hearing a lot of Obama support from their Cuban friends. Hopefully that Obama support will sink the Diaz-Balart hermanos as well. Obama will be Cuban American's pick to fight Castro's communism.

____________________

jswarren:

I'm still waiting for Boomshak to explain the difference between the Iraqi Oil Revenue Sharing program and COMMUNISM. They sound like exactly the same thing, and GOPS ALL CELEBRATED the Iraqi Oil Sharing program as the greatest victory in ever for Democracy. Plus, where does the money come from?

____________________

Vokoban:

America,

looking at the crater your great country has become even the idea that more than 4% complete idiots will re-elect the same lunatic party that created the mess is - well astonishing to say the least.

And I hate to say: it tells the world a big part of you really WANT to live in this mess. That was no accident, that was deliberate. And you rather stick to your ideologically based denial than starting to make reason again the guiding light of your country (it was reason your country has been founded on much more than religion).

The world is sitting in wonder. And it's easy to foresee what will happen if the religious fascists win on 11/4: complete isolation, falling back into irrelevance.

Think twice, America!

____________________

straight talk:

Boy the OBama supporters are the most nervous bunch of individuals I have ever seen! One poll shows that the race is at 3 with OBama lead support rock solid! And every supporter of his is worried! IT IS STATISTICAL NOISE! There is not 1 battle ground that suggest McCain is gaining! In fact Rcp avg. has OBama 7.5+ in Va, 8.5 in Col, 7+ in ohio, 10+ in PA, 7+ in Nevada! NEED I SAY MORE! Every poll that comes out suggest that Obama supporters are at the polls! And his support is Solid! McCain is tryin to fire up the base! BUT WILL THEY GO AND VOTE? Chill out Obama supporters, his numbers will maintain! History in these polls shows us that McCain has soft support, so his poll numbers will likely drop back below 46%.

____________________

DTM:

@NYCREALAMERICAN

Some people are clinging to the notion that state polls somehow will only reflect in the future things that are happening in national polls today. Of course that makes no sense and I am aware of no evidence to support such a claim. Indeed, as far as I can tell it is produced by a confusion between concurrent state polls (for which there is no expected lag) and state poll averages (which might lag when states are being polled less frequently and therefore the time period of the state averages stretch farther into the past).

Anyway, that is the excuse our resident poll cherry-pickers give for ignoring even the latest state polls. Again, though, it makes no real sense.

____________________

jswarren:

christine:

Typically state polls lag, but the most recent OH, PA, FL poll was from 2 of the same 3 days, so your question still is valid.

____________________

tar_heel:

chris:

Some of the state polls are a bit dated while the national polls you refer to track voters' preferences each day. Second, it's likely that McCain picks up some of his support in very blue and very red states, while Obama remains focused on the battlegrounds. And finally, some of the battlegrounds have tightened in McCain's favor--MO does not look as promising as it did a week ago, and neither does North Carolina. Both states went from Obama leads to virtual ties.

I think the big story is told in half of the battlegrounds, and especially CO, VA, NM, OH, and IA, where Obama has either increased his lead or held steady.

____________________

NYCREALAMERICAN:

***************************************************************
SURVEY USA OH POLL UP
***************************************************************
O50 M46

--------------------------------------------------
AA - 84%(BO)
- 12% (JM)

11% of likely voters? Probably a tad higher. BUT IF SYDNEY WINS 12% OF AA SUPPORT IN OH - I WILL PERSONALLY GO TO ATHENS AND LICK EVERY BRICK ON THE OHIO UNIVERSITY CAMPUS.

____________________

MDB1974:

These polls mean Obama is where he wants to be at this point, not that he has won. Push, this is still losable. Never underestimate the depths of the right.

____________________

chrisinnc:

@tar_heel:

Yeah, I've given some thought to the state polls lagging, but I'm talking about the bunch that just came out yesterday. I'm here on the ground in NC, too, and do get a sense that the 'mood' is shifting and the anti-obama types are getting a bit more traction, but I hate to speculate based on my own encounters, so I'll wait to see if it's substantiated in polling.

Still, NC seems to be the only place where polling has moved toward McCain, with states like AZ and GA moving dramatically in the Obama direction.

I will be anxious about closing in the national trackers until I know where it's coming from - if it's coming from tightening of astronomical margins in say, NJ/NY/CT (Dem states where McCain has been underperforming Bush) and inner South states like KY, MS, AL, TX, KY, that's one thing.

However, if the tightening is happening in battlegrounds, then there's a reason for concern.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

": Does anyone have any real idea of why the national trackers have tightened (and they have) but the battleground state polling has expanded for Obama (and it also has)?"

No real evidence, but here's my guess: in the battleground states the candidates' direct campaigning is what's driving the polls. People there are being bombarded with the campaign messages and they're probably a bit more engaged in the core arguments.

In the deep red and (maybe) the deep blue states the background noise is not drowned out to the same extent. People are hearing less from each of the campaigns and more of the undercurrent, including the name-calling and vague insinuations about undisclosed dirt on Obama. That stuff might be turning some of the undecideds and soft Obama support towards McCain.

Like I said, just a guess.

____________________

ericsp28:

Here's an interesting analysis by Nate Silver at 538 regarding the voting in Oregon to date:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-oregon-turnout-is-down-but.html

Oregon only votes by mail, so essentially, the entire state votes early. Compared to the same time in 2004 the number of people who have voted is down siginificantly. This can be attributed to the fact that in 2004 Oregon was considered a battleground state and got a lot of attention from both candidates, but has been considered fairly safe for Obama throughout this entire cycle. So they have not gotten as much attention. It is also still possible that the numbers will catch up to 2004 before election day, and the trend has been, since Oregon went to the vote by mail system, that people vote later and later in the window they have to mail off their ballots.

That being said, the vote in counties won by Bush in 2004 is down significantly more than in the counties that Kerry won in 2004. Based on the table Nate provided of the counties with population greater than 50,000 people, I calculate that turnout in counties won by Bush in 2004 is down by 25%, while turnout in counties won by Kerry is down by 16%. Since there is no "waiting for election day" in this state, it is possible that the turnout in Oregon to date may represent a microcosm of what it will look like across the country when all votes have been cast. If this is true, then it is going to be difficult for McCain to make up the gap in the battleground states where Obama appears to have picked up a significant advantage in early voting.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

": Does anyone have any real idea of why the national trackers have tightened (and they have) but the battleground state polling has expanded for Obama (and it also has)?"

No real evidence, but here's my guess: in the battleground states the candidates' direct campaigning is what's driving the polls. People there are being bombarded with the campaign messages and they're probably a bit more engaged in the core arguments.

In the deep red and (maybe) the deep blue states the background noise is not drowned out to the same extent. People are hearing less from each of the campaigns and more of the undercurrent, including the name-calling and vague insinuations about undisclosed dirt on Obama. That stuff might be turning some of the undecideds and soft Obama support towards McCain.

Like I said, just a guess.

____________________

tar_heel:

chris:

Let's keep working to turn NC blue! I do think much of M's new support comes from states that are not really in play (i.e., approximately 75% of the population)

____________________

jeric:

@ Straight Talk

Having seen Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2000, 02, and 04, I'm going to be nervous until the morning of Nov. 5th.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

Oops, double post. Sorry.

____________________

AB:

@ tar_heel, chrisinnc
if you scroll back a little ways I've posted early voting stats for NC (from the NC sboe).

____________________

DTM:

@chrisinnc

I think it is worth remembering we have been here before, just about a week ago in fact. This is from Mark Blumenthal's 10/21 Morning Update:

"Finally, I want to look more closely at the national trend, which has been receiving quite a bit of attention over the last few days. Our overall trend estimate, based on all available national polls, shows the same pattern seen by other aggregators: A one and a half point upturn in McCain's total from a smoothed low low of 42.2% a little over a week ago to 43.7% as of this writing. Meanwhile, Obama's total has dropped about a half point, from a high of 50.2% a week ago to 49.7% now."

/blogs/morning_status_update_for_tues.html

Now we know what happened the rest of last week: the national trends turned back in Obama's favor, concurrent with gains in the state polls.

So what exactly can we learn from this? Well, as Blumenthal discusses in that post, part of what we saw back then was a shift in the polling mix to one dominated by trackers, which happens to favor McCain. On the other hand, the trackers did in fact tighten before widening again. That could be noise, or some sort of cyclical effect produced by methodology, or even real changes in voter preference--we really don't know.

But at a minimum, I think we need to be cautious about periods in which the trackers are dominating the national trends. And certainly, we should be cautious about using those to outweigh what concurrent state polls are indicating. Indeed, as Nate Silver pointed out, we are now getting much more fresh data on a daily basis from the state polls than from the trackers, and when in doubt it is a good idea to go with the much larger data set.

____________________

AB:

@tarheel, chrisinnc
You can find that post faster if you look at the time, 10:13am

____________________

Snowspinner:

boomshak - It's perfectly plausible that Obama has a +17 lead in *those* battleground states. Because, frankly, counting New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, and, increasingly, Virginia and New Hampshire as battlegrounds is nuts.

As for your complaints about the LAT, yes - any respectable paper would protect the source, period, no matter what side it favored. As for why someone would give the video to the LAT on the condition that it not be released, I assume that its release would make it easy to figure out who filmed it. Thus, anonymity would be the goal.

On the whole, elections tighten in the last week. But that's not the same as a change in the underlying fundamentals. Even if this is significant and not noise, it's still a move towards the likely outcome of Obama winning by roughly half of what his polling margin last weekend was.

____________________

chrisinnc:

@tar_heel: Yes, I think that NC is going to be about the closest state in the country, so I'm doing everything I can for Kay and Obama!

@jeric: Seconded. Although I'm in NC now, I grew up in Philly, and equate being a Dem to being a Philly sports fan - I believe wins only when I see the little "Final" next to scores or the "100% reporting" next to results.

____________________

sotonightthatimightsee:

OOPS...MACK DID IT AGAIN!

LMAO!!

____________________

laguna_b:

Quote of the Day
"Who knows whether or not an Arizonan will run, but unfortunately, I think John McCain might be added to that long list of Arizonans who ran for president but never were elected."

-- Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), quoted by the Arizona Daily Star, on McCain's probable loss.

Kyl later claimed his remarks were taken out of context, but the audio of the interview proves otherwise.

____________________

Mister H.:

Boomshak wrote: "In the battleground states (CO, OH, MI, NH, NM, FL, VA, WI, NV), Obama has a 17 pt. lead - 54-37%.

THIS is the reason I completely discount this poll. There is NO F*CKING WAY Obama leads in battleground states by 17 points. No way."


Uh....they aren't saying that he leads by 17 points in EACH STATE, Boomshak.....just that statistically, that's how much he leads when added up and calculated. And that's pretty realistic.

Besides, I remember a time when this poll was "god" to you....back when it showed great things for McCain.

What happened?

____________________

cinnamonape:

"How the hell can Obama and McCain be TIED amongst WHITE WOMEN, but trailing by 16 points amongst ALL WOMEN?

How is that mathematically possible? Only about 15% of the US population of women are non-white, correct? So if McCain ties Obama with 85% of the population, how can he trail by 16 points amongst 100% of the population?"

Hmmm! Maybe because the Diaegeo/Hotline poll isn't a smaple of ALL the United States? In several of those States you'd have a greater than 15% minority population , and in most of the others it'd be about the average. Probably only in NH would it fall below 15%.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

The polls reflect the past. Tracking polls are the closest to what's happening now, but even they are yesterday's news in some sense.

What's happening right now cannot be measured with any objective measure. So we're forced to rely on gut reaction, instinct, etc. Anyone who has been watching the McCain campaign this week and especially yesterday and today knows that it has picked up a huge burst of energy. The message is getting clearer every day and IT IS RESONATING. Obama's message -- that of playing Prevent Defense -- is resonating like a rotten log.

Furthermore, this swing of momentum is almost palpable here in these comments: Panic is everywhere. You who should know better keep seeking refuge in state polls which are clearly lagging national trends and clearly less accurate. Every election -- EVERY ONE -- shows that state polls rise and fall with national ones.

By Friday or Saturday you will be able to see this objectied in polls that show -- better sit down, Dems -- McCain in the lead.

It appears now that at the present rate of momentum, McCain will win the election by 3 percentage points. How this translates out into electoral votes is an academic matter. He'll beat Bush's total in 2004 by a little.

But the teas leaves are aligning in this final week and I'd hate to be at that Grant Park celebration/wake on Nov. 4 in Chicago.

____________________

DCDemocrat:

19.9% of US residents are non-white, cinnamonape, but the subsamples are too small to make too much out of any one set of internal numbers.

____________________

DCDemocrat:

19.9 percent of US residents are nonwhite. Among white residents, about 14 percent are Hispanic. My guess is that minority persons include non-white persons and persons of Hispanic ancestry; thus, non-Hispanic whites are about 66% of the population

____________________

Inkan1969:

@MaxMBJ

Screaming your groundless assertions like "IT IS RESONATING" and "EVERY SINGLE ONE" does not make them any less groundless. The notion that state polls lag national polls arose during the summer, when state polls were rare. Now, state polls are as up to date as nationals. So you base your ridiculous and spite filled predictions on a myth.

Seriously, where on Earth do you get your measured rate of momentum?

____________________

Ryguy:

hey boom, remember how yesterday you were curious if ras was "an obama guy"? and today hes your most trusted pollster again! yay for you! im glad you guys could become friends again! hope you two dont get into another fight. oh also, please dont call this a tie. a 3 point race being with in the margin of error does not mean the race is tied... you clearly dont understand how the margin of error works. until some polls start showing an actual tie or mccain with a slight lead to balance out the fact that obama has a lead in every poll, theres no evidence to suggest that this thing is tied... in fact theres evidence to suggest that obama is clearly winning this thing.

but i digress... look at the state polls people. the national polls will go up and down all week but the state polls look rock solid for obama.

____________________

Mister H.:

By Friday or Saturday you will be able to see this objectied in polls that show -- better sit down, Dems -- McCain in the lead.

It appears now that at the present rate of momentum, McCain will win the election by 3 percentage points. How this translates out into electoral votes is an academic matter. He'll beat Bush's total in 2004 by a little.

But the teas leaves are aligning in this final week and I'd hate to be at that Grant Park celebration/wake on Nov. 4 in Chicago.

Wow....that's an interesting take. Can you provide for us a single independent professional source that agrees??

____________________

Ryguy:

max, for your own good im telling you... dont get your hopes up. its just going to make the loss hurt more.

____________________

Kirsten_Denmark:

It is too nervewrecking to read the latest polls. I mean numbers like 50% Obama versus 47 McCain is within the marginal errors, aren't they?
I really, really hope for the sake of US and the sake of the world, that Obama will be your next president

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Inkan: "So you base your ridiculous and spite filled predictions on a myth. "


Spite-filled? Where do you read that?

When you Kossacks write stuff like that (and virtually every post on DailyKos contains something about the "hate" spewed by McCain et al) my prophecy gains credence.

Your anger is my proof that this thing is falling apart. You all now claim, "Yeah, sure, we knew this thing would tighten in the last week" which is quite hilarious given that just this weekend I read huge, mocking posts on DailyKos and Huffington Post about the BLOWOUT that was coming. Which is it, guys, a blowout or a tight finale?

You all are really vacillating between false bravado and outright panic.

Go ahead, call this post "spite-filled." There's no malice here at all. My guy is behind, by your calculations. You sit in the pole position ... or should I say, the polls position.

But deep down inside you know, as I do, what's happening. The doubt grows, gnaws, and not just the doubt about losing this race but about the man you're supporting. Who is Barack Obama? Nobody knows.

And most Americans aren't going to vote for an Etch-a-Sketch drawing.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

One "poll" that will be worth watching these next five days is Intrades. As I type this, it's 86.7 to 13.8 for Obama. That's a huge lead.

In the next 36 to 48 hours the traders will begin to pick up the scent of the shocking upset that is forming even now like a hurricane a thousand miles off the coast of Florida. Presently, only the most astute radar watchers see it but by tonight or tomorrow the radar will begin to show real development. The betters will take notice.

When the eye of the storm actually hits (read election night) many, many people who have been denying its existence will find their house of cards flattened.

Now's the time to buy some McCain stock. The price will never be so good.

____________________

RossPhx:

McCain is gaining strength in Texas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama -- all the places where Obama isn't outspending him 4 to 1.

We would have less respect for Obama if he weren't losing votes where they don't count. Buying TV spots in Dallas to beat McCain is like sending troops to Iraq to defeat Osama bin Laden.

____________________

lhtk:

Man, I really wish those who poll the "battleground" states would just eliminate MI! O has a HUGE lead there and it skews his margin. Doing that would still leave O with a healthy +12 or so, I think.

____________________

Inkan1969:

@MaxMBJ

I read that in the fact that you had to yell your assertions, and that you had to mock the other side with that "wake" comment. Also that in your other response, you have to inflate your ego by making yourself out as some "astute radar watcher" who's the only one who can make an alleged prediction. Find some other outlet for your delusions of grandeur.

You say other people on the Obama side have behaved badly. Why do you interpret that then as a license to behave badly yourself. You say they're acting like assholes; why do you have no problem being an asshole yourself?

What does the reaction of me or any other board poster have to do with the election results. No one in charge of any campaign posts on these boards. However I react or you or anyone else won't actually change any results.

I don't know what garbage you think I "know". Get a life that depends on something more than trying to flame people.

____________________

PJ_FFM:

Not just noise, BUT Gallup's numbers for today seem to be (according to their web-applet, that is)

registered: 51 O, 42 M -> O+1, M-1
trad. LV: 49 O, 46 M -> M-1
expanded: 51 O, 44 M -> unchanged

____________________

gossamer:

this is getting scary. mccain's been catching up like 4 days straight. i would love to see obama go up a little tomorrow, especially since i have no idea how people will react to his commerical.

____________________

tar_heel:

Ras is probably the tracker I follow the most (being the most stable) but the movement in the other polls and Ras history indicates that this sample has a very bad Obama day embedded in it (most likely Sunday), which will roll off tomorrow. I think Ras will be back in the 4 point range by then.

____________________

Dave in RI:

LA Times tape = grasping at straws. Pretty sad, really.

____________________

Dave in RI:

LA Times tape = grasping at straws. Pretty sad, really.

____________________

jim:

We need to stop focusing on thes polls minute by minute, it will not change anything. If we all go and talk to one person, convince them to vote for Obama, that will make the difference.

When this is over McCain will sit and gaze out of the window and a tear will roll down his heek as he reflects on an unfulfilled life. He has never stood for anything or has he been his own man. From Navy, through marraige and his political career. At his best he was a sure bet for the Sunday talking heads for 20 years when they had tie to fill.

The rest of us have a future to look forward to.

Get out the vote for O/B, stop whining!!!!!

____________________



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