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US: Obama 51, McCain 41 (Gallup 10/07-09)

Topics: PHome

Gallup
10/07-09, 08; 2,784 RV 2%
Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 41

 

Comments
carl29:

Does boomshak like Gallup again? He just said ,less than 2 hours ago, that he is sticking to Rasmussen and just Rasmussen. Rass is the one for Boomshak, until he sees how is Gallup doing. Boomshak: I was against gallup, before I was for gallup :-)!!

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Disco Stu:

First!

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Disco Stu:

D'oh...ok..second! lol

Yeah...I guess Ras is Boom's FAVORITE...well...until tomorrow! lol

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Eddie:

Keep up the venomous attacks McCain - you're only poisoning yourself! Hoo-ah!

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political_junki:

Well when Obama +10 is good news for McSame supporters, then you gotto wonder :-))

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Dana Adini:

Obama + 10% = 375 EV

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IndependentThinker:

Talking with boomSPIN about polls is worse than a bridge to nowhere
Thx but no thx

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political_junki:

Funny thing is that even when the race gets tight it is Obama's number that has gown down. McShame's number doesn go up!

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thoughtful:

I like this one, as with Rasmussen on +5% and Gallup on +10% taking the 6 trackers into account (unweighted) the Average is 7.82% and of course the pollsters could be rounding up or down. But any way the number is in the middle and is very much in line with the States polls.

395 EVs

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DCDemocrat:

My guess is that they had a particularly good night for Obama earlier in the week, and those numbers have rolled out of the total now.

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johncoz:

This brings the day's average (both simple and weighted) to 50% for Obama, with McCain just over 42%. This is a diabolical situation for McCain, given the topography of the electoral map. It indicates that whatever tiny traction the Ayers stuff had at the beginning of the week has been completely overtaken by deepening economic disaster and the debate performance.

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NW Patrick:

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10660404

Wow they are attacking the DEM HQ's now. CLASSY!

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thoughtful:

@johncoz

What's the weighted swing to Obama from yesterday and Wednesday since the debate?

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JoelR:

Oh no! The gap is closing! Statistical tie by the middle of next week!

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thoughtful:

There has been an unweighted average swing of 1,6% since Wednesday wit 2 days of post debate polling

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makersmark:

when will pollster post that +8 in florida from strategic vision

that's the best news I've heard all week!

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political_junki:

This is from Zogby. I find it really interesting:
------------------------------------------------
The rolling survey was conducted in part after the McCain campaign launched attacks against Obama for his associations with a former pastor and a one-time leader of a radical group in the 1960s, but McCain, not Obama, is the one who has lost ground in the last two days since this new McCain campaign strategy was ratcheted up. This may be a reaction by likely voters to negative campaign tactics, which have not worked this year.

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cambridge blue:

Wow! Obama down 1 point! At that rate, McCain will be tied come mid February! Don't call it a comeback!

/boom

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RussTC3:

According to what they said in today's report, it looks like there will be some tightening in tomorrow's report. Another of Obama's double-digit days will be replaced tomorrow, leaving just one unless he has a strong day today.

Interestingly enough, both Zogby and Research 2000 found better Thursday's for Obama, not McCain. GWU and Hotline improved for Obama and Rasmussen stayed the same. Looks like Gallup may still be swinging back and forth. I wonder if switching to a LV model will reduce those wild swings.

Here's the average of the now five daily tracking polls (not including GWU because it's not a daily tracking poll):

Obama 49.8 (49.6)
McCain 42.0 (42.4)

Obama +7.8% (+7.2%)

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KipTin:

Did you guys read the Gallup report today?

"These results show little major change in the basic structure of the race, although McCain did somewhat better in Thursday night interviewing, suggesting the possibility that the race may have some fluidity in the days ahead."

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nick-socal:

@NW Patrick: It's really sad that McCain is doing. That's just pure anger to throw a brick through a window. I know what McCain thinks he's doing, but his unintended consequences will poison not just himself, but America.

McCain is just using an old GOP tactic of inserted so much negativity into a race so that more and more people become disgusted with the process that less and less people vote. Low voter turnout is the only change the GOP has. That's why they go negative. They know that no one is going to go vote FOR McCain because they are afraid OF Obama. No, they just want less people to vote and thus possibly make a win for them since they believe their base will always vote and might out vote the Democratic base and most especially the independents who got disgusted with the negativity and stayed home.

But unfortunately this time it's looking more and more like McCain and Palin have opened a can of worms they didn't mean to and that they have no way of closing.

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RussTC3:

That's the first thing I saw KipTin, as I noted above and in the other thread.

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NW Patrick:

nick-socal from a political stand point this anger, rioting would only HELP Obama. This is a different kind of year. Americans are sick to death of it.

American's DO NOT TRUST THE GOP.

Proof? From Rasmussen:

WHO IS MORE TRUSTED ON THE ISSUES?
October 2008
Issue Democrats (%) Republicans (%) Dem lead Importance of issue*
Health care 54 34 20 59
Education 53 34 19 63
Economy 51 38 13 80
Social Security 49 37 12 54
Govt ethics/ corruption 40 30 10 69
Abortion 47 38 9 42
Taxes 47 42 5 57
Iraq 47 42 5 55
Nat Security/ War on Terror 47 44 3 64
Immigration 40 38 2 41
Source: Rasmussen

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mattn:

So if I've got this correctly, Gallup is the only tracking poll doing RV instead of LV. Could the difference between Gallup and the others be due to this? [I might have suspected random sampling error, which is still possible, but this difference has been persistent for a week now.) I find it a little hard to believe that their LV models would be so GOP-biased, though. Has anyone taken a look at this?

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political_junki:

@KipTin
Well since it is -1 for Obama today compared to yesterday, obviously McSame had a good night last night in the poll. Bu he is gonna need a lot of fluid to change these numbers. Although I agree with you that there is a lot ahead, I am always a pessimist at heart!
Boom start all this silly overreacting to the polls and by suggesting if Obama goes from +6 one day to +5 next, race is tied and he has made every body to react that way...

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JFactor:

This election is in all likelyhood over for McCain. These character attacks won't close a seven point gap, everybody knows that. McCain needs a miracle now.
_______________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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nick-socal:

Patrick, I agree completely. But what I'm saying is the old tactic of trying to drive down voter turn out is having the unintended consequence of unleashing all this anger. Listen to what people are yelling at McCain rallies. The problem is that even if Obama wins then we have a whole grip of people in this country that have been whipped up into anger and hatred towards Obama. That's not good.

I think you missed the point of my post. I didn't mean to suggest that McCain's low voter turnout tactic will work. I mean to say that the anger will be real and will last long after the election is over.

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DecaturMark:

Just curious about people's thoughts here. If John McCain continues to seed the country with hate and fear and this results not only in his losing but taking the Republicans down with him, do you think he will stay in the Senate or resign from it? He will be persona non gratis in the Senate, both for his dispicable and base campaign as well as his enabling the Democrats to score a large victory. The years of honor and bi-partisanship he has fostered will be forever damaged. Can he rehabilitate himself to be any kind of leader? Any thoughts?

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fed:

new fox poll
O46
MC 39

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NW Patrick:

To sum it up. Per Rasmussen, the thugs do not lead on a SINGLE issue, NOT EVEN national security. Just look at the debates. Obama showed a DEEP knowledge of the issues and an understanding of the world unlike any president we've seen in years.

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thoughtful:

Kiptin what is the margin of error on a single days polling on Gallup?


Going fishin back in few hours

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johncoz:

@thoughtful

Weighted swing for the 2 days is 1.4%. (Remember though my numbers include *all* the nationals.) The main effect of weighting is to smooth out the larger fluctuations since it assigns more weight to bigger samples (Ras and Gallop) which move more slowly.

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Boris_Dieter:

Puuuuulease folks; it's time to quite obsessing about the national stuff, which will vary in a tiny range. If anything breaks, it'll be in Obama's direction, although the national margin will be between 3-6% at the end. The key thing is that state results are going more and more in Obama's direction. The electoral college road map looks like it's got nothing but dead-ends for the Palin/McCain ticket. Without something blowing up for Obama, it's time to start thinking about what celebratory cigars to light up on November 4.

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carl29:

The only bad thing is that McCain didn't improve 1 single point, not 1. I mean, at least he could have gone from 41% up to 42%. It looks like Obama was the one who went down last night, rather than McCain moving up. McCain needs to raise his numbers. At this point being stuck at the low 40's is not enough.

We'll see kids :-)

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NW Patrick:

Wow nice result for the fox poll. That's an increase isn't it? I believe the last Fox poll was +5 or 6?

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Jacob S:

Time for a weekly post. This week I do not have much to say. Here are three quick observations:

1. I project Obama to win 353-158-27.

2. McCain has collapsed in PA, MI, and FL, giving Obama a SOLID lead in the electoral college.

3. The fat lady is clearly her throat.

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Jacob S:

Time for a weekly post. This week I do not have much to say. Here are three quick observations:

1. I project Obama to win 353-158-27.

2. McCain has collapsed in PA, MI, and FL, giving Obama a SOLID lead in the electoral college.

3. The fat lady is clearing her throat.

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nick-socal:

@DecaturMark: That's a good question. My feeling is that he doesn't care. He's 72 years old and this was his last chance to die having been President of the United States. That's the irony in him saying that Obama puts his ambition before his country. Please, McCain's sole goal is to be president for his personal achievement, not because he puts his country first. So I think he doesn't really care what happens in the Senate after this as he's old and won't be around much longer anyway. This was is one last shot at personal glory.

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NW Patrick:

Are we really discussing a 1% drop in a 3 day average poll with one candidate still up 10%? LOL This has been an outstanding polling day with many of the trackers moving up to reality.

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fed:

LOL you should see how Fox is trying to spin the results of this poll

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KipTin:

Uh... DecaturMark... you are missing the trend that Congressional Republicans up for election are now beginning to regain ground.

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johncoz:

@mattn

While LV has traditionally favoured the GOP over RV, there is evidence that this gap is much less this year. Nate Silver also mentioned something similar a couple of weeks ago.

Given the difficulties the pollsters are clearly having in determining an accurate voter model (which has been the main factor in the wide spread of poll results), I don't believe that this is a major factor.

I would expect Gallup to move to LV next week, in any case.

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nick-socal:

@fed: I'm sure Fox spins it like my right-wing father does. That is, the polls are bogus and in the tank for Obama, people won't /can't vote for a black man once they get in the booth, something major will happen in McCain's favor 72 hours before the election -- along the lines of bin Laden surrendering to McCain, etc. etc.

I know this because all my father does is regurgitate Fox News talking points.

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NW Patrick:

KipTin...Have you checked the polls? AK the dem is now UP! Could you provide your source for this "trend?" LOL

In the meantime... President Obama is on CNN now looking INTELLIGENT.

http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1

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NYClassicalLiberal:

New Fox Poll:
Sample: 1 RV aged 72 from Arizona
Party Affiliation: Maverick

McCain-Palin - 100%
Obama-Ayers - 0%

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NYClassicalLiberal:

New Fox Poll:
Sample: 1 RV aged 72 from Arizona
Party Affiliation: Maverick

McCain-Palin - 100%
Obama-Ayers - 0%

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RussTC3:

Last Fox News poll was 45/39 (9/22-23).

So Obama improved by 1 pt (+6 to +7).

I haven't seen the poll yet though, is it RV or LV (their last one was RV)? Considering the still large undecided group, it's likely RV.

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nick-socal:

Hee thanks for the chuckles

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cambridge blue:

nick-socal:

The new right-wing poll spin is that pollsters are interviewing thousands of fake ACORN registered voters, forcing the polls to be disproportionately pro-Obama.

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OGLiberal:

@fed

Wait, they are trying to spin the Gallup poll? The poll that shows Obama up by 10 with 51%? Pray tell, how are they spinning it? I really can't wait to hear what they're saying

Or are they spinning their own poll? The one that has Obama up by 7, a +1 improvement for him since their last poll.

And what's up with the large number of undecideds in the FoxNews poll. 15%? 3 weeks before the election? I find that hard to believe.

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KipTin:

Well, nick-socal... Obamanation "have been whipped up into anger and hatred" towards McCain AND Palin for quite some time now. And now the McCain contigency is finally responding because they have had enough of the Obamanation garbage. Why be so surprised?

One reaps what one sows.

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fed:

The funniest part is that according to fox¨s poll, Palin is a drag to the ticket. LOLOLOL

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NW Patrick:

KipTin Windbag you must be referring to all of the news reports about Republicans and Congressional races? Read and weep:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/09/congressional-gop-faces-t_n_133218.html

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nick-socal:

No, the hatred being spewed at your guy's rallies goes something like this:

"Kill him!"


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Adam:

@fed: do tell?

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NW Patrick:

My favorite are the "Undecided" groups 1 night before the election on TV. I'm thinking to myself...are these people from MARS? LOL

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carl29:

How will Fox News spin this one? Forget about Fox, how about Boomshak? I'm sorry...I forgot that from now on it is Rass and only Rass for "boomy."

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orange24:

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10660404

It's true what others are saying - McShame and the She-Bush are inciting these riots and egging them on. This hatred they're inciting is absolutely going to result in violence, and not just bricks through windows. And they could care less, because they know it's just about over.

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fed:

Yes. They are spinning their own poll.

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KipTin:

Pay attention NW Patrick... Incumbent Alaska Senator Stevens gained ground against the Democrat, and Stevens was indicted and is involved in a trial right now!!!

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Connor:

@KipTin

"One reaps what one sows."

So if someone commits a violent act against Obama, will that be your excuse? Because people pointed out Palin's lies, corruption, and idiocy? You're really equating that to calling Obama a straight-up "terrorist"? To calling out for his DEATH?

Another wussy ass little right-winger.

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DecaturMark:

@NW Patrick

Thanks. I knew I read that article somewhere today. Hence my question.

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maddiekat:

I think starting next week you are going to see several Republicans follow Michigans ex Govenor's lead, and retract their McCain endorsements. Also I would not be surprised at this late point for someone like Powell or Hagel to come out with an Obama endorsement. McCain is becoming a National embarrasment right in front of our eyes.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

KipTin: If we were saying things like "off with his (our opponent's) head!" at our rallies then you would be making a valid statement. BTW the biased media source I read that in was the Wall Street Journal.

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JCK:

KipTin,

It's the McCain supporters who are shouting racial epithets and suggesting acts of violence. I have not heard the same coming from the Obama side, quite frankly.

I don't think you can draw equivalence here. I can't even begin to imagine the outrage we'd hear if black Obama supporters were caught on tape saying these sorts of things in reverse at Obama or Biden events.


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johncoz:

@kiptin

No one is calling McCain a traitor or Muslim terrorist.

This is no joke -- I hope the Secret Service is on the ball.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

@ KipTin:

"Incumbent Alaska Senator Stevens gained ground against the Democrat, and Stevens was indicted and is involved in a trial right now!!!"

You say that as if you're proud of him.

Corrupt "Chicago politicians": Bad

Corrupt Alaska politicians: Good

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

If one Obama supporter shouted "Kill Whitey!" Fox and the Right-Wing nutjob media would be all over it for days.

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NW Patrick:

KipTin says alot about AK doesn't it. A complete THUG winning even by 1% is unbelievable. Oh wait..they also produced PALIN. Fitting for a state with such a history of illegal activity.

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Viperlord:

The only reason Pork Barrel Stevens is alive is that Alaskans like the pork he brings home, whether they admit it or not.

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Connor:

@KipTin

If you're going to endorse this vicious bile, please link us to a picture of yourself so we can see the total feebleness from which right-wing hate and death threats (and their enablers/supporters like you) pour.

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NW Patrick:

No Obama stays focused through all of these attacks...talking EVERY day about the middle class.

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carl29:

Don't worry guys: Let me explain to you KipTin Problem. She is a woman of "certain age" who is very, very, very ticked off that Obama trashed Hillary's hopes to become president, sweet :-). Now she hates not only Obama but all the democrats who supported Obama, Pelossi, Dodd, Dean and anybody else who didn't gave Hillary "her nomination." Her anger is typical of her age, you know what I mean :-). Leave her alone. Poor thing....is at the end of her life and her dream will not come true. Sweet :-)

If you go back and read her previous posts, many of them with her former nicknames, she is just blinded by anger, an angry, old lady.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Once again, a key McCain attack line flounders. One place often compared with Chicago for institutionalized political corruption is Alaska. And Obama can claim as much about fighting that corruption as Palin can (see 2002 Illinois Senate Race...Obama was the outsider and his victory against a favored member of the Chicago establishment was a huge upset)

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nick-socal:

LOL it's called Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage! Maybe they can rename O'Hare International Airport to Dan Rostenkowski International Airport.

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KipTin:

So NW Patrick resorts to calling me a "windbag" because he is impotent when it comes to debate or what? What does your limp brain not understand about the term "regaining ground?" I did not state that GOP were taking leads, but rather directly implied that the margins in the Congressional races were becoming closer.

Obamanation feels compelled to insult people with whom they disagree. Who ever told you that was a way to make a point or win an argument? Adolescent behavior is all I see. Well, I am leaving now for the day... so I will not be here to read your further insults which are sure to come because you cannot seem to think critically... because you are too immersed in Obamanation.

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Connor:

@carl29

"Don't worry guys: Let me explain to you KipTin Problem. She is a woman of "certain age" who is very, very, very ticked off that Obama trashed Hillary's hopes to become president"

It's a "she"?

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orange24:

Ah yes, that biased Liberal media. Asking the poor She-Bush all of those tricky questions like:

What do you read?

Name a Supreme Court Decision

Isn't every fourth-grader familiar with the Dred Scott case? Just because you can memorize 90 minutes of talking points to get through a debate doesn't mean you've proven your intellect. I guarantee if there were any follow-up questions in the debate, she wouldn't have had any idea what she was talking about. Your 15 minutes of fame are up Governor. Better get back to Alaska for your court case.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Maybe they can name the road to nowhere (in honor of her decision to keep the money dedicated to the Bridge to Nowhere) after Sarah Palin. It would be fitting.

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NW Patrick:

No KipTin we're sick and tired of your BULL****, your parties raping of the US people. BE GONE.

TRANS-ATLANTIC CONSENSUS: OBAMA WILL WIN

PoliticsHome's unique expert panels at the heart of US and UK politics swing heavily behind a Democrat victory forecast; Right-leaning panellists abandon hope in McCain

About the UK PHI100 panel
About the US Online100 panel


Andrew Rawnsley
Editor in Chief, PoliticsHome

There's a hardening and overwhelming consensus among political experts and insiders on both sides of the Atlantic that Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.

Amidst mixed results from conventional polls and inconclusive debates between the two men, our unique panels which track expert opinion in both America and Britain are now powerfully forecasting that the Democrat will take the White House.

The US Online 100 panel is calling the contest for Barack Obama by a whopping majority. Eighty eight per cent of the American panellists now forecast he will win against just two per cent saying John McCain will be the victor.

The British PHI100 panel is calling the race for the Senator from Illinois by a very similar margin to the American panellists. Eighty nine per cent of the PHI100 now forecast an Obama victory against just ten per cent predicting that his opponent will win.

These panels, composed of people with their fingers pressed to the pulse of power, are uniquely well-qualified to track political sentiment.


Political experts on both panels swing towards Obama


The PHI100 is Britain's most authoritative survey of expert and inside political opinion. Its members include politicians from all the main parties, among them senior Ministers in the Government, including members of the Cabinet, along with leading figures from the Opposition parties.

The panel also comprises senior editors and commentators in the media, key party strategists and the heads of campaign organisations and think tanks.

The US Online panel is composed of one hundred of the most influential and informed online political voices in America. Members of the US100 include Arianna Huffington, Karl Rove, Joe Klein, Andrew Sullivan and Joe Trippi.

On both panels, there has been a massive swing to calling the presidential battle for Obama.

The US panel had the contest on a knife-edge when surveyed a month ago. Panellists then split 49 forecasting an Obama win to 48 tipping McCain. That has now dramatically switched with a massive 88 to 2 forecast of an Obama victory.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

My first thought was "Kelo v. New London"

Sarah Palin's first thought was "Which Supreme Court?"

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IndependentThinker:

Sharing comments with kipTin on this blog is a bridge to nowhere
There's a departure point but it's impossible to see the end
Therefore we should come together and tell her thanks but no thanks to that discussion to nowhere

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Connor:

I highly, highly recommended Rolling Stone's newest expose on McCain: http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_maverick_the_real_john_mccain

**** pilot, **** politician, **** human being.

A ****.

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carl29:

Connor,

Yes, an old and angry she. Don't worry, her mood is typical of women of certain age. I can't imagine how worked-up she gets with all these discussions. I mean, with the hot flashes and everything :-)

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NW Patrick:

Wow Fox is D E S P E R A T E !!!!!
Watch this guys! LOL I was laughing so hard!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3a-Z3izFlzE

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KipTin:

Hey... Jordan - San Marcos TX... where do you get your so-called facts. You stated "And Obama can claim as much about fighting that corruption as Palin can (see 2002 Illinois Senate Race...Obama was the outsider and his victory against a favored member of the Chicago establishment was a huge upset)."

FYI: Obama ran UNOPPOSED in 2002 for the Illinois State Senate.

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NW Patrick:

KipTin I thought you were going away? How can you sit and debate a party with such corruption? With such disasterous leadership? With such DISTAIN for America racking up the largest debt in Human History? Can you go away now like your party will be? ROFL

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DavidGD620:

So the logical conclusion among McCain supporters is to celebrate while Obama's lead get larger and larger because they believe Obama supporters will be lulled into inattention and the McCainites will be able to launch their October Surprise. They will launch a four pronged attack using Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Neal Boortz and Michael Savage to lead the charge with Sarah's moose and polar bears bringing up the rear. The middle ranks of the charge will be populated by all the die hard republicans and conservatives that can be gotten out of jail or bed.

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Adam:

Whoa, guys, lay off the personal attacks on KipTin. Yeah, she's dead wrong politically, but the "woman of a certain age" comments make you no better than the McCain camp's campaign of innuendo and smears.

It doesn't matter who started it... we're better than that.

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RussTC3:

Time Magazine/ABT SRBI 10/3-6 | (9/26-29)
Obama 50 (50)
McCain 44 (43)

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KipTinBoomShakNotTooBright:

@carl29

KipTin IS angry, old, and bitter. Recommendation:
Take some metamucil, you could be constipated.

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NW Patrick:

From the Fox News poll. Look at the female vote!

Obama's advantage comes mainly from doing better among women, blacks, young voters, those with a college degree, and unmarried voters. He has increased his edge over McCain among women to 16 percentage points, up from a 4-point edge last month (Sept. 8-9).

Obama has also improved his standing with his party faithful. A month ago, 79 percent of Democrats were backing Obama. Today it is 86 percent. McCain has consistently received the backing of over 80 percent of Republicans and is backed by 83 percent today.

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Trosen:

maddie.. right now Colin Powell is testifying as a character witness for the defense in Ted Stevens' corruption trial. That sort of GOP loyalty doesn't translate into endorsing the Democratic nominee tomorrow. Not gonna happen. Hagel? maybe. He's getting his wife to, so as not to rock the boat too much I guess and become a dead man in his own party like Lieberman.

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nick-socal:

If Hagel, Snowe, Hutchinson, Collins, etc. were smart they'd form their own new party and call it something other than Republican.

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DecaturMark:

From the Politico:

"The Philadelphia Flyers’ decision to invite self-described hockey mom Sarah Palin to drop the ceremonial first puck at the team’s home opener on Saturday night is prompting head-scratching in the worlds of sports and politics.

For Republicans – who are clinging to diminishing hopes that Palin and her running mate John McCain can carry Pennsylvania – a less-than-warm welcome from the notoriously unruly Philly fans could be embarrassing to the GOP ticket. A cascade of boos for Palin might also prove to be a P.R. nightmare for the Flyers, reinforcing yet again Philly fans’ reputation for boorishness, and focusing unwanted attention on the motives of the teams’ managing partner, big GOP donor Ed Snider."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14462.html

This is the same crowd that booed Santa Claus. It will be interesting if they go through with it. I will be checking Youtube on Sunday.

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NHBlue:

A general question re: polling. Do pollsters account for folk like me who don't answer the phone unless we recognize the name of the caller or see a local (small-town) number?

Am I part of a Lost Demographic?

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nick-socal:

Wow that's crazy about the Flyers. Guess I know now where their owners political leanings are. What a really stupid move.

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licinfl:

Chris Buckleys comments (and yes, William F.'s son is voting blue this year)

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama

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Trosen:

Don't expect much from the troopergate findings. I'm betting it will be something along the lines of: "While there appears to be a pattern of inconsistency and bias in the behavior of the Governor's office, there is no substantial proof of termination for unwarranted reasons." Or something like that. As for the Flyers thing.. expect them to pull the plug on that. Unless that right-wing owner is so delusional as to think that's a good idea for his franchise or the McCain campaign.

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mysticlaker:

If McChicken can break 40 in a fox news poll at this point, he is up **** creek more than I even thought...

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nick-socal:

Trosen, that's what I was thinking too about the Toopergate report.

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sunnymi:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 46 percent to 39 percent, according to a FOX News national registered voter poll released Friday. Two weeks ago Obama led by 45 percent to 39 percent (Sept. 22-23).

Obama's advantage comes mainly from doing better among women, blacks, young voters, those with a college degree, and unmarried voters. He has increased his edge over McCain among women to 16 percentage points, up from a 4-point edge last month (Sept. 8-9).

Obama has also improved his standing with his party faithful. A month ago, 79 percent of Democrats were backing Obama. Today it is 86 percent. McCain has consistently received the backing of over 80 percent of Republicans and is backed by 83 percent today.

Independents split their vote 34 percent Obama and 32 percent McCain, with 24 percent unsure. That's little changed from two weeks ago when Obama was up by 36 percent to 31 percent and 29 percent undecided.

A 61 percent majority of voters believes Obama is going to win the election - more than three times as many as believe McCain will (18 percent). A month ago it was evenly divided: 41 percent Obama and 40 percent McCain (Sept. 8-9). This summer, voters were more likely to say Obama would win: 51 percent Obama and 27 percent McCain (July 22-23).

All of the interviews for the poll were conducted after the town-hall style presidential debate held on Tuesday, Oct. 7. Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from Oct. 8 to Oct. 9. The poll has a 3-point error margin.

There is no doubt the economy remains the single most important issue to voters this election. It is picked by 49 percent, which is more than all the other issues combined.

By 50 percent to 35 percent, Obama tops McCain as the candidate voters trust to handle the economy. Obama has the edge on all other issues tested save two - on handling the war on terrorism McCain is preferred by 14 points and on Iraq by 5 points.

The Obama-Biden ticket has a clear advantage on "having better judgment" (+ 7 points), "bringing the right change to Washington" (+ 15 points), "better understands American families and their problems" (+ 24 points). By a slim margin the Democratic ticket is also seen as better understanding "America's importance in the world" (+ 3 points).

The McCain-Palin ticket has a significant edge on "having more experience" (+ 28 points).

What about the gut check question? If you had to make the toughest decision of your life, which candidate would you go to for advice? 42 percent say Obama and 41 percent McCain. That's a significant shift from a month ago when 50 percent said they would go to McCain and 34 percent Obama (Sept. 8-9).

Among independent voters: 37 percent say they would go to McCain for advice and 32 percent Obama and 22 percent say neither.

Interest in the Election and Enthusiasm for Voting

Identical majorities - 58 percent - of Democrats and Republicans say they are "extremely" interested in the presidential election. And roughly equal numbers of Obama supporters (86 percent) and McCain supporters (83 percent) say the outcome of the election matters "a great deal" to them.

Almost all of each candidate's backers say they are certain of their support. Fully 89 percent of Obama's supporters say they are certain to vote for him, up from 85 percent in August. There is matching conviction for the Republican candidate: 91 percent of McCain's supporters describe their vote as certain, up from 86 percent in August.

In addition, a higher number of Democrats (62 percent) than Republicans (52 percent) say it is "extremely" important to them that their candidate wins. Similarly, Obama supporters (61 percent) are more likely to say it is "extremely" important to them that their candidate wins than McCain backers (49 percent).

Majorities of Obama supporters and McCain supporters say their vote is more a vote for their candidate than against the other candidate. Seventy-seven percent of Obama backers say they are voting for him rather than against McCain. Among McCain supporters, 65 percent say their vote is more for him than against Obama.

On the flip side, 28 percent of McCain backers describe their vote as being more against Obama. For Obama supporters, 17 percent say their vote is against McCain.

Importance of the Race and Age of the Candidates

Although many voters say race will not play a factor in their presidential vote decision, 45 percent say it will. Some 5 percent say the race of the candidates will be the "single most important factor" in deciding their vote, while 19 percent say it will be "one of several important factors" and another 21 percent say "a minor factor."

A 52 percent majority says the race of the candidates will not be a factor "at all."

Forty-seven percent of Obama supporters and 45 percent of McCain supporters say race will be a factor in their vote.

About 4 in 10 blacks (42 percent) and 4 in 10 whites (46 percent) say race will be a factor in deciding their vote. Among white voters who consider race a factor, 45 percent back McCain and 41 percent Obama. Almost all of the blacks who consider race a factor back Obama.

Six of 10 voters say the age of the candidates will play a factor in their vote. Here's how it breaks down: 5 percent say age will be the "single most important factor," 23 percent say "one of several important factors" and 32 percent say "a minor factor."

Some 39 percent say the age of the candidates will not be a factor in choosing a candidate.

Bush and Congress Approval Hit New Lows

Most Americans give negative ratings to President Bush: 69 percent disapprove - nearly three times as many as the 25 percent who approve of the job he is doing as president. That's the lowest approval rating Bush has received during his presidency.

Similarly, Congress gets its lowest rating ever, with just 13 percent assigning positive job marks, and 77 percent giving negative ratings.

____________________

RussTC3:

Favorables from the TIME poll (which by the way has some odd demographic and race breakdowns, yet still gives Obama a solid +6 lead):

John McCain
Favorable 50
Unfavorable 39
+11

Sarah Palin
Favorable 46
Unfavorable 44
+2

Barack Obama
Favorable 55
Unfavorable 36
+19

Joe Biden
Favorable 54
Unfavorable 32
+22

+6.5 for McCain/Palin vs. +20.5 for Obama/Biden.

____________________

NW Patrick:

God I am just amazed at some of these people at the McCain events. One guy ASKS I don't UNDERSTAND how Obama can be leading? I just don't get it! WHERE THE F**CK have they lived the past 8 years? OMG! LOL

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/10/mccain.crowd/#cnnSTCVideo

____________________

JMTMichigan:

Ok, that Fox video just made my day. I can't believe they actually wasted five minutes arguing over the fact that Newsweek didn't make Palin look pretty enough!

The sad part is, it seems to imply that they feel her beauty is an important attribute in the race. Isn't that the sort of thing women have been fighting against for decades now? Why do women actually still want to vote for her?

____________________

carl29:

Told you....she is exploding!!!! What a bad joke McCain played on smart, educated women. How could he gave them should "bubbled-head" to compensate their "dear Hillary."

____________________

Connor:

@Adam

I see your point. But if we're all in a theater, and two thugs come in and start throwing feces at everyone, causing the audience to stand up and subdue them, are you going to lament the lack of "civility" in how the ****-slingers are dealt with?

____________________

NW Patrick:

They'd better HOPE Trooper Gate is nothing. Can you imgaine after a week of Palin questioning OBAMA's judgement...then DAMAGING evidence comes out about her missuse of power? WOW.

____________________

carl29:

A new poll out of Ohio:

InAdv/PollPosition 10/09 - 10/09 --
Obama 49 McCain 44 Obama +5

BEFORE:

InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29
Obama 47 McCain 45 Obama +2

____________________

cinnamonape:

I'm beginning to wonder about the McCain-Palin strategy here. It almost reminds me of the behavior when a dictatorial tyrant from some Third World nation is compelled by outside forces to have an election. Realizing that they are behind in the polls the tyrant holds rallies, sometimes in the "heartland" of the opponent vilifying and degrading the "Democratic rival".

The Tyrant works up his support into a froth of hatred and aggression...and there start to be fights and attacks on the opponents HQ's and supporters. Riots break out, especially if the economy is bad and people are frustrated.

The tyrant asserts that there is evidence of election fraud by the Democratic opponent, and using the chaos and this claim...suspends the elections until "the polling is clarified". When the supporters of the Democratic opponent go into the streets to protest the ruling party declares martial law.

If I was in Zimbabwe and saw these same circumstances this would be precisely what I'd expect.

____________________

nick-socal:

cinnamonape maybe that's the 72 hours before the election surprise McCain is talking about. He talks about as if he knows what's going to happen but won't tell us.

____________________

boomdoom:

Conservatives revolt against mcshame/devil

http://blogs.abcnews.com/legalities/2008/10/rabies.html

____________________

maddiekat:

InAdv/Poll

Georgia

M 49%
O 46%

Say good night McSlime

____________________

IndependentThinker:

Guys, you got to read this:

--------------------
Palin schedules bus tour of West Virginia
Posted: 01:12 PM ET

From CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby

CLEVELAND, Ohio (CNN) — In what may be another signal that the troubled economy is forcing John McCain’s campaign to play electoral map defense, Sarah Palin has scheduled a bus tour for Sunday through West Virginia, a state that’s been leaning red throughout this presidential race.

Palin had already scheduled a bus tour of Pennsylvania on Saturday, but she will now repeat that act on Sunday by making various unannounced stops throughout West Virginia, culminating in a campaign event in southeast Ohio. It’s a swing geographically reminiscent of Hillary Clinton’s effort during the Democratic primary to court white working class voters in Appalachia. Clinton won the West Virginia primary over Barack Obama by a whopping 67-26 margin.

Surveys of West Virginia voters this year have consistently favored McCain, but state polls have closed in recent weeks as the global financial crisis has dominated the headlines. A CNN/Time poll conducted in late September showed McCain with a slight 50-46 lead over Obama, and an ARG poll released this week suggested Obama had rocketed to an eight-point over his Republican rival.

---------------------

____________________

Stonecreek:

Intrade currently has Obama at 77.5. I guess that all the people pulling their money out of the stock market have to put it somewhere they consider safe.

____________________

katocat:

This one is voting for that one.

Need a bit of levity? Check this out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmOUP0U5PNk

____________________

Viperlord:

I'm trying not to get my hopes up too high, but I'm liking the way this is going.

____________________

muckinello:

Guys, do you mean we have a chance to turn GA Blue? Look for McCain to campaign in OK, TX, NE and UT before the end of the campaign!
The only question left is if Obama will repeat the Gipper's landslide!

____________________

JCK:

I would guess that McCain's internals in WV must be bad, but I no longer believe that anything the McCain camp is doing reflects objective reality.

Yikes on the GA result. McCain below 50% and Obama at 46%? Would love to see the internals on that one.

____________________

jeepdad:

Trson: I've been wondering if Obama has been keeping a Hagel endorsement in his back pocket. It would definitely change the news cycle in the event McCain-Palin are able to make any sort of traction in the polls with his negative attacks. Having Hagel come out and denounce McCain's tactics while throwing his support behind Obama would make some tidal waves.

____________________

Trosen:

I have to laugh about the ACORN thing. Yes, they could get into big trouble for registering dead people, fictional people etc. It's a federal offense, and was done clearly to help boost their #s to reach some sort of quota. But the other obvious side of that is.. so what? Dead people will not rise from the grave on 11/4 and go vote for Obama. Hugh Jass and Phil McCrackin won't magically show up with vald IDs to their polling stations. It's much ado about nothing.

____________________

johncoz:

To quote myself from earlier this week:
"If this continues, I would expect WV and GA to come under threat in the next week or so."

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Troopergate must be BAD news, people. They're trying to bury this thing on a Friday evening after 6 PM EST.

____________________

johncoz:

This site's national trend average has just hit 50% for Obama ...

____________________

logic001:

I remember reading that McCain has "fighter pilot instincts", i.e. he'll take risks to take out an opponent, and so on. The devil in that being, risks have a big downside too. At the risk of sounding horrible, I wonder if he may have a risk taking nature, but not necessarily good instant risk assessment? That might fit a pattern of snap calls that had him wrecking planes, knocking an aircraft carrier out of action, getting shot down, and picking Sarah Palin. I feel bad framing it that way, but...there it is. That makes me wonder if he might do something really, really unexpected in the next 20 days.

____________________

Trosen:

Shannon, I doubt anything in the troopergate report will be even worth mentioning in the weekend's news cycle. I'd be pretty surprised if there's anything substantive there.

____________________

MB1122:

@Trosen

You are absolutely right. Not to mention the fact that ACORN DOES flag suspect registration forms for the elections officials! The elections officials need to DO THEIR JOB and investigate/throw out the erroneous ones if they are really concerned. Raiding ACORN's offices in NV is a stunt and is B.S.

If they really want to do something substantive to avoid election fraud, GET RID OF ELECTRONIC VOTING MACHINES!!!

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Trosen

It's 300 pages. There's something there. It doesn't take that much space to absolve someone.

____________________

Jordan - San Marcos TX:

The only thing more erratic than the McPalin campaign is the stock market today. Seriously, what the hell is wrong with it?

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Trosen

To make my point I'll ask a simple question: how many pages were in the report put out by the McCain campaign last night?

____________________

Trosen:

Sure it does Shannon. Ever read the 9/11 Commission Report? In fact, you can use up a lot of pages with CYA.

____________________

JCK:

I don't think Troopergate is going to be a big deal. I'll bet good money that Obama fans will find more reasons to dislike Palin based on the report, Palin fans will assume that the charges are politically motivated (and dismiss them accordingly), and independents aren't likely to be swayed one way or the other.

People are so inoculated against this sort of stuff with their politicians, and this is a real sideshow.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

YO! Acorn's behavior is execrable. Let's admit it Obama supporters. However, it's got nothing to do with Obama. It was obviously an effort to get compensated for work not done. It's always a mistake to pay for forms, rather than actually waiting till registrations are actually confirmed. It also demonstrates that it's not necessary to have the sort of draconian efforts to police registration that many GOP operatives would like, in order to keep the numbers of registered Democrats and Democratic voters as low as possible. It's all baloney. Start shopping for victory cigars folks. Barring an October surprise or some real scandal, rather than some delusion or fantasy conjured up in the sick brains of Palin/McCain staffers, the curtain is coming down and it's Obama/Biden who are taking the bows.

____________________

cinnamonape:

"I have to laugh about the ACORN thing. Yes, they could get into big trouble for registering dead people, fictional people etc. It's a federal offense, and was done clearly to help boost their #s to reach some sort of quota. But the other obvious side of that is.. so what? Dead people will not rise from the grave on 11/4 and go vote for Obama. Hugh Jass and Phil McCrackin won't magically show up with vald IDs to their polling stations. It's much ado about nothing."

That's my point...the fraud is on ACORN...who was paying the collectors "bounties" for each registration (both Parties do this, however...that's the method professional signature collectors also use...with high rejection rates as a result).

Most of the registrations will have no impact, one actually has to have a body...with some ID...out there TO vote in the case of actual fraud. And there's absolutely no evidence that ACORN is doing this. Why would they create obviously bogus names (Mickey Mouse, Phil Meupp) or use the names of famous football players, etc. The multiple registrations of an individual at the same residence...that's going to get caught. The guy can't walk into the same place multiple timesa and vote...under the same name.

So many of these claims of "fraud" by the Republicans are just silly.

Most of the complaints in some places may actually be legitimate people registering. The bulk of "problems" cited in Lake Co. Indiana were simply items left off or misspellings on the registration form. This "error" might actually mean the registrant might end up losing their chance to vote.

____________________

Trosen:

Hey, I'd love it if you were right. I'd actually like to see more insight into her ties with the secessionist, virulently Anti-American Alaskan Independence Party. I just have my doubts that even if there's something to the idea that Palin fired this guy just as vengeance for her sister, that anyone's really gonna care.

____________________

Pazienza:

Obama's worst nightmare: Stock market is bottoming out and a nice comback begins getting the market to 10,000+ by election day. Gas prices continue to drop and gas selling for $2 and change per gallon by election day. Country's focus turns from economy to Ayers and ACORN and Obama's association and bumbling efforts to explain them. Obama again becomes the risky pick. Race drops back to dead heat as it was before the bad financial news. Palin drives up support in battleground states. McCain voted in as next president of the United States.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Trosen

After watching Cheney abuse his position, I think people are going to recoil from giving Gov. Palin the same opportunity.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Johncoz
Thanks

Weighted with all the national polls 1.4% swing to Obama with 2 days of polling (trackers only)since debate included.

1.6% 6 trackers only - unweighted. We'll look at again tomorrow. I expect the swing to be over well over 2%- we will see

____________________

MB1122:

@Pazienza

funny funny funny - lol

...oh wait, were you trying to be serious?

____________________

Trosen:

Pazienza, even if the stock market makes a miraculous comeback before 11/4, that will do nothing for the state of health care, the job market, (and that would also send gas prices back UP.. not down), wages, the foreclosure crisis, etc. If anything, that could help some Congresspeople who are getting remaed for the bailout bill. Will not effect either candidate, as they both supported it (although McCain made a bigger "show" of it.)

____________________

mahlers5th:

KipTin

Ignore them. Some kids like to jump up and down so they can see their dicks actually move.

____________________

mahlers5th:

@cinnamonape

How about mail-inballots, hon? Recall the gubernatorial election of Christine Gregoire of Washington State, where those ACORN activists were convicted of fraud. In Gregoire’s election, Democratic districts tallied up more mail-in ballots than there were mail-in voters...

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Hi Folks,

An improved stock market will not benefit McCain. All it will show is that he is the guy to panic and blink first. Obama has been the steady-as-you-go man, cautious and concerned about making sure any remedy isn't going to be worse than the disease. It's been McCain who has been all over the map, from touting his credentials as a deregulator to an advocate of massive government bail-outs of banking miscreants. People have gotten a gander at the Palin/McCain ticket, with Lady Macbeth of Wasilla ready to take over if, as VP, she needs to push McCain off a cliff to take over. If McCain wins, I'd be careful were I him about going to shoot ducks with the Alaskan Harridan. She apparently can take out a quarter at 50 feet.

____________________

Pazienza:

The only reason Obama is ahead in the polls is the recent bad financial news which resulted in the stock market drop. The race was essentially tied or McCain had a slight lead just before that. If the financial news goes out of the spotlight the hot air comes out of Obama's balloon. Obama is praying that the financial news stays bad for America. Any change and the race tightens dramatically.

____________________

Viperlord:

That's a joke right? This isn't going to just leap out of people's heads because Republicans want it to. The worries about the economy will remain very high, and Obama is far more trusted on that than McCain. NOBODY wants the news to remain bad you ignorant fool.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

All I have to say is....

WOOOHOOOOOO!!!!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Actually, Obama was already ahead. The economic news coupled with Sarah Pain showing the world how stupid she is on CBS coupled with Obama slaughtering McCain in the debates coupled with McCains stupid attempt to suspend his campaign to save the economy resulting in absolutely nothing but him pissing people off is the reason we are in landslide territory.

____________________

johncoz:

@Pazienza

Obama was ahead in the national polls from the end of April until the Palin "bounce".
/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.html

That bounce rebounded of its own accord as the Palin story unravelled for reasons entirely unrelated to the economy.

Now the recent events on Wall St have certainly re-focused people's minds on the economy, but the US was already in trouble - having entered a downturn some nine months ago, at least. This was generating a wave of discontent that Obama was riding to the White House.

The recession has now dramatically deepened and globalised. Recovery is unlikely within the next 18 months, no matter what policies are pursued.

In this context voting for an economic illiterate and his moose-hunting sidekick does not seem like a good bet to politically uncommitted Americans. This is not going to change in the next three weeks.

____________________

Pazienza:

Gentlemen & ladies:

You give Obama far more credit than he deserves and are way too negative in your assessment of McCain/Palin. The following sums it up nicely:

The average voter doesn't understand the intricacies of economic policy. Heck, when you think about it, nobody really understands the economy. So, voters often rely on simple yet sensible metrics to make political decisions about the economy. One of them has been more or less operative since the election of 1840: if the economy tanks during a Republican administration, vote Democrat. If it tanks during a Democratic administration, vote Republican. Applying this rule to 2008, we get the following. McCain, because he is of the incumbent party, gets the political harm. Obama, because he is of the out party, gets the political benefit. That's all there is to it.

This rule might not be just, but remember justice is a matter of law. This is a matter of politics, a space where the law does not exist. This rule might not make for the best choice every time, but in the long run it does have some beneficial effects. Above all, it makes the party in charge work hard for growth, which is what the country really wants.

Does that mean this race is over? No. If the bad news dissipates and some good news manages to creep back into the papers and onto the television, McCain's position should improve at least a bit. But that means that his fortunes are out of his control (the same goes for Obama). A retooled message might help him at the margin, but to change things he's first going to need some better headlines.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/10/why_no_traction_for_mccain.html

____________________

johncoz:

The world economy is comprehensively screwed, and you think "some good news" creeping into the headlines is going to help!

In any case, a good look at the electoral map shows this analysis to be complete bunkum. The only thing likely to "save" McCain is a major national security crisis (heaven forfend!). A lead of the current magnitude has its own momentum.

____________________

obamaownsboomcrapnkiptin:
____________________



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