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US: Obama 51, McCain 42 (Gallup 10/04-06)

Topics: PHome

Gallup
10/04-06,08; 2,747 RV 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 42

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Rasmussen and Gallup will show double digit leads for Obama by this weekend.

The McNukeyouler smear tactics are NOT going to work this time around losers. Since the Townhall debate is McShame’s format, I can’t wait to watch him get bitch-slapped tonight. Bring on your slime McCainiacs, it will only widen Obama’s already insurmountable lead. Keep in mind, when we see national polls such as Gallup, that they are including the reddest of red states in their surveys as well, so a 9 point advantage nationally, means blue states must be through the roof for Obama.

It’s time to clean house America. The Democrats will have to pick up this country again after another mess left by a Rethug administration. This will be historic by all means ladies and Joe Six Packs.

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kerrchdavis:

woohoo! The McCain surge is ON!

landslide baby landslide!

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pbcrunch:

These national polls all over the place, from Obama +2 to +9. I think we can safely say that Obama is about +6 in the polls right now, roughly where he was last week.

McCain needs a major game changer to win it (in a squeaker); Ayers and vague "Obama's different" attacks won't do it.

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UpperLeft:

Obama should cut the Ayers & Wright thing off at the knees tonight. Just explain how he knew him, that he was part of the scene, and he loves America and thinks Ayers was dead wrong in this beliefs.

Sounds stupid, but it worked for Clinton. People need to see you say this stuff so they feel comfortable. Do that and you might just get those double digit leads.

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maddiekat:

McShame / Palin / Rove = Slime

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Tyler:

What?! Gallup's margin for Obama _increased_ in the middle of the week?! What alternate universe have we stepped into??

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miatch:

Dow down 250

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JCK:

Still waiting for that statistical tie...

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kerrchdavis:

Look, basically here is what we have to do to be completely fair:

Disregard all the polls that show Obama's lead in the 2-5 point range. Obviously this makes no sense. In other words, take the Battleground, gallup, ras and r2k polls and average them out so you get just about +9.

Now, factor in that people are probably telling the pollsters that they are voting for McCain (when really they will vote for Obama) because they want to show that they support a POW and they feel sorry for him because he is really old and fighting Melanoma.

That means Obama is really at about +11.

Then, factor in that McCain and Palin will both make huge asses of themselves in the next few weeks spewing character assassination bull****.

This will get Obama to +15 on the eve of the election.

Then, factor in the amazing ground game, higher enthusiasm, that the youth will actually turn out this year on election day etc.

This gets Obama to +20 on election day.

Texas goes blue. Obama gets over 400 evs.

Right?

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Hope Reborn:

Who to trust... Gallup and Rasmussen vs. Hotline and Zogby...

Go Obama!!!

More Rezko, More Wright, More Ayers please... the voters will laugh you into the ground old man

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thoughtful:

OK yesterdays Daily Average was 8.20% on the 5 tracker polls.

Todays Daily Tracker Average is 7.60%

The range is from 2% to 11%. So my guess is like yours is the focussed snap shot les somewhere in between.

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laguna_b:

America is ready for their next FDR to speak calmly not run around erratically and deny reality and offer quickie solutions....OBAMA has arrived at the perfect time....we will see history this year......unfortunately it takes disaster to bring a turn around.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

I wonder how far McCain's poll numbers are going to fall when the MSM reports that he was on the board of a private group responsible for supplying aid to Osama Bin Laden.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/why-mccains-time-with-cou_n_132470.html

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kerrchdavis:

@thoughtful

a -0.6 national poll average decrease when you consider that hotline changed their weightings probably means we are about exactly where we were yesterday or slightly better.

Race is holding steady, it seems.

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IndependentThinker:

Just released
Minnesota Minn. Pub. Radio Obama 54, McCain 40 Obama +14

Countdown for McPalionocchio tu pulling out of MN and PA : 8 days

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muckinello:

Pa +10 to +15. Mason-Dixon of all pollsters puts FL +2. No time to party, just work had to make these numbers stick. I will be bussing voters to the polls on Nov. 4, even if PA has gone from being in-play!

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:
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miatch:

Our next FDR? Yes. I believe we should not have term limits on Presidents. They are inherently undemocratic.

And think about it: If Bill Clinton ran against W, he would have won. We could have 16 years of Obama's guidance.

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muckinello:

McCain will pull out of PA soon! Can't wait!!

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maddiekat:

Fox, Drudge, Hannity and Drug Lord are pissing on themselves about now!!

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thoughtful:

I've got to run.

It looks very likely that Governments are going to be taking stakes accross all the European Banks as share prices have collapsed in the Climate of Fear.

Lending has all but come to a stop as the entire market deleverages. More later.

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Ulysses:

WARNING: Over Confidence™ may cause competitive drowsiness, and may include side effects such as:
- loss of momentum
- premature celebration
- partial blindness
- dry mouth (from excessive smiling)
- intellectual dizziness, and inability to focus on the ultimate goal.

If reversing of trend in battleground states goes on for more than three days, see your strategist, and cease use of Over Confidence™ immediately.

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kerrchdavis:

@Ulysses

I'm too much of a concern troll to be overconfident. Hell, I'm still worried about Colorado!

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laguna_b:

@miatch

Sad commentary on America that we can't come up with a better alternative than the same guy for 16 years....Obama can't be the only great guy to lead this country....that said

It is TRULEY tragic that McCain could not have come up with amore qualified VP choice...what a serious joke.....

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nick-socal:

Some of the McCain supporters on here are sitting here worried about Obama's association with Ayers meanwhile the Republican Secretary of State of Colorado has purged 20%, 1 in 5!, voters from the registration rolls.

This doesn't bother you people? I know you want to win but is his how you want to win? Do you honestly think that 20% of the electorate in Colorado is ineligible to vote?

And Bush named her (the CO Sec. of State) as a national elections type czar and wanted to call her the Purgin' General. So now she can show all the other states how to purge scads of voters off their rolls.

Is this honestly how you want to win? Is this honestly democracy in action?

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

I think the smear tactics are going to backfire big time this year. For all the racists they will be appealing to there will be thousands of independents they are turning off. Apparently a man was shot 3 times yesterday because he was wearing an Obama t-shirt. McCain and Palin are inciting this very thing at their rallies by saying Obama is a terrorist.

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mysticlaker:

Focus on the end game. My suggestion: donate, volunteer, make calls. Whatever you can do...

https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/main

volunteer
http://my.barackobama.com

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nick-socal:

But thoughtful the Fed has taken over as the lender of short term paper, thus freeing up the credit markets didn't you hear? This Whack-A-Mole approach the crisis is working out nicely thank you very much. I mean all the Fed has to do is print more money.

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KipTin:

Try some real facts... Shannon,Dallas,Texas... Quit making far-reaching conclusions that are not even part of the article you referenced.

How do YOU connect Iran-Contra to Osama Bin Laden?

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ericsp28:

@nick-socal

Do you have a link or way to validate that? I'm not saying I don't believe you given that this is a proven tactic used by the GOP, but a claim like that needs something to back it up.

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GrampsMcCain:

Wow Gallup, Ras, Battleground and R2K Obama +7-12, Zogby, Hotline Obama +2-3. Zogby we will have to wait and see on as this was his first tracking poll. Wait for the trend and movement. Zogby has his results skewing a little more GOP then some other pollsters. Why Hotline changed their partisan weightings I have no idea. The RCP avg right now is Obama +5.5. They don't count ARG for some reason. Zogby I expect to stick around at a +2-4 margin for Obama, who knows with Hotline, I bet they have the race Obama +1 or tied tommorow just to be different.

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KipTin:

Quit spamming the pollster site... mysticlaker.

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JCK:

nick,

We need a little more info about these purges before getting worried. Indiana did a large purge earlier this year, but those who looked more closely realized it was due to registered voters who had moved out of state, and had died.

If this is first purge in a number of years, 20% does not sound impossible.

I'm not going to panic, or run a up tree, without hearing more.

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zotz:

The smear attacks will not work if the media doesn't support them. We are seeing Obama's expanding the map strategy paying off. In 2004, Kerry's hopes rested on two states, FL, OH. Look at the map now.

McCain's only hope is to pour all his resources into OH, FL, VA, CO, and NV. He just has to hope the other swing states will hold. He doesn't have the resources to cover IN, NC, and MO. If he is behind in those states he is finished anyway.

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johncoz:

What's interesting is the extreme stability of Gallup and Ras, the two large-sample running trackers, over the past 10 days.

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Palin the Parrot is still out there babbling on about Ayers and Wright. Yawn! I guess when you've got nothing and no plan, you just keep talking gibberish and ignore the freefall in the polls just like they ignore the problems in this country! They're preaching to the choir at this point and fast running out of cash and time. So long Geezer and Gidget. We sure will miss those SNL skits. Don't let the door hit you on the way out!

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nick-socal:

@eric: Here's a link to a story in a Vail, CO newspaper. This was the first one that popped up. There's a cartoon and then the story follows underneath.

http://www.realvail.com/RealNews/368/Palast-One-out-of-five-Colorado-voters-purged-from-voter-registration.html

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maddiekat:

nick-social

Is that true in Colorado?

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kerrchdavis:

@thisland

Is is completely irresponsible and borderline criminal for them to be implying that Obama is a terrorist by association. The country needs unity and what they are doing is beyond partisanship.

As McCain himself said in the 2000 campaign where he lost to smear tactics, there is a special place in hell for people who run these sorts of ads and smears. Of course, I'm not going to get into the fact that McCain later hired these same people to run his advertising for this campaign.

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jamesia:

johncoz:

That's why I give more weight to Ras and Gallup... because they have larger samples.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Taken from the Huffington Post

The council, according to a 1986 New York Times report, "provided $10 million to $25 million in cash and 'in-kind' aid: four to eight small aircraft (''non gun-mounted'') to the contras, boots to rebels fighting Soviet troops in Afghanistan, $20,000 in medicines to Cambodian resistance forces, and help for groups in Mozambique, Ethiopia and other countries."

The article also states that there were arms transfers.

If this was the position he took as a member of the private group, what was his position as a member of the House?

He was involved in supplying aid to Bin Laden.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/why-mccains-time-with-cou_n_132470.html

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cinnamonape:

I think that almost everyone has encountered some nutcase or person with a questionable past in or work, clubs, or in our families. They could be members (or ex-members) of right-wing militias, anti-semites, acolytes of weird religious cults, former felons, the KKK, or myriad other odd organizations or persuasions. Some organizations actually support gathering weapons to rise up eventually against the government...using misguided arguments from the Constitution to argue that this is the purpose of the Second Amendment (please see Article II of the Constitution instead).

Some of these ndividuals who once espoused such views have utterly changed their perspectives (e.g. Sen. Robt. Byrd) others not much (Jesse Helms). Others have not. Some politicians have sought out the endorsement of preachers who have blamed the sins of Americans for 9/11, HIV, or even the current financial meltdown (Hagee, Pat Robertson, Franklin Graham, Jerry Falwell) saying that America or groups of Americans deserved such godly wrath.

In all this we have to ask, does the candidate(s) themselves share those views? Did they actually seek out the support of people with those views, or is the support incidental. Was the work with or encounter with those individuals activity to promote some public good (e.g. charitable causes) or to further the agenda of the organization with those views.

Finally, who is using such shallow associations to further their own political agenda. If someone attacked my moral standing merely because I had some past association with an individual at work or in a club that I utterly disagreed with...I'd be pissed at the slur. It would be, as Sarah Palin said "a case of when you point you have three fingers comin' back at you:. Sarah's pointing now.


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nick-socal:
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nick-socal:

@kerrchdavis: You're absolutely right that it is criminal. They are inciting fear and hatred in people. A guy was already murdered for wearing an Obama tshirt. Don't you think that calling Obama a terrorist puts his own life in danger? Sarah Palin and John McCain are sick individuals.

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faithhopelove:

McCain is now 0 for 7 in today's national polls.

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mysticlaker:

HaHa Kiptin,

Spam? Almost every thing you write about repugs is spam...Your candidate even looks like spam.

HaHa. That really cheered me up. I have a cold, and it's the first time I smiled all day. Thank you.

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kerrchdavis:

@KipTin

mysti is right, You really are the king of cut and paste bull**** on this site so you really don't get a say in what other people post.


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KipTin:

This so-called voter purging is being used to allege voter disenfranchisement by the GOP. In reality, all states do this on a regular basis to remove voters who no longer meet state residency qualifications or who have committed a felony. And a large number of them are voters who have DOUBLE registrations when moving inside the state, so the older address is removed. A lot of this was done based on new databases now available to local jurisdicitons (e.g. counties).

Looking at the numbers for Colorado in 2006 (not 2008) 19.4 percent were removed.

Notably, no legitimate voters should be disenfranchised because of federal law requiring provisional ballots.

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nick-socal:

Provisional ballots are bogus ballots. Do not accept a provisional ballot if you're given one. Vote early and if you're denied call the appropriate numbers where a lawyer will be dispatched to help you. You cannot convince me that a Republican Sec. of State removing 20%! of the voters from the rolls isn't subversive. Of course not all 20% were legitimate voters but with a number as high as 1 in 5 voters in CO you can be sure there were plenty of legitimate voters removed.

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KipTin:

I have now reported mysticlaker for his spamming for Obama donations, as well as both mysticlaker and kerrchdavis for harassing me because I called mysticlaker out for his spamming.

Maybe you two should exchange private emails to denigrate me, instead of wasting space here with your adolescent attacks on me (and others).

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Viperlord:

I'm actually kind of with KipTin, Bin Laden had nothing to do with the Venezuelan Contra that I knew of. Operation Cyclone, which supplied the Afghan rebels is a whole different matter, I don't know if McCain had any involvement in that. And supposedly Bin Laden's group was never supplied by the US. Then again, it was the CIA, who knows.

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KipTin:

Again that 20% was removed in 2006, unless you have another factual source for 2008.

Provisional ballots are NOT bogus. Quit making stuff up.

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NW Patrick:

KipTin you need to get some. Go GET SOME!

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KipTin:

You need to learn your history... and get some real FACTS... Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

The U.S. supported Afghan rebels AGAINST the Soviets. Summary from Wikipedia:

"The Soviet war in Afghanistan, also known as the Soviet-Afghan War or just the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, was a nine-year conflict involving Soviet forces supporting the Marxist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) government against the mujahideen resistance. The latter group found support from a variety of sources including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and other Muslim nations in the context of the Cold War."

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Viperlord:

I'm with KipTin, McCain had nothing to do with Operation Cyclone that I know of, that was pretty much a CIA operation. Whether Bin Laden was ever supplied by the US is debatable.

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nick-socal:

Voter purging is only bogus when it helps your guy win (Bush anyone) and provisional ballots are rock solid acceptable ballots only when it helps your guy win (Bush anyone).

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ericsp28:

Colorado's governor is a Democrat and their state legislature has a Democratic majority. If the voter purge was partisan in nature I have no doubt that the Democrats in leadership positions within the state would be screaming about it at the tops of their lungs.

I am more worried about voter purging in states with Republican governors, particularly Florida, Nevada, and Indiana.

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nick-socal:

@eric: Apparently the Democratic legislature wasn't aware of the Sec. of State's actions until they blew the whistle. That's why you're hearing about it now. The Sec. of State is a Republican. You figure it out. It's amazing how things are right in front of people's eyes and they can't see it. No wonder McCain has ~45% support.

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mysticlaker:

@Kiptin.

You reported me to your mommy? Did you have call upstairs from the sorry basement you live in...Or did you call that pig with lipstick to try and help protect you?

You are two for two for making me laugh today...

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katocat:

@KipTin

Get a life dude, seriously. Noone likes a whiner/snitch. Ask McCain.

Apparently the Embarracuda and McCain's smear job isn't really working out as well as they had hoped... I guess Americans are wising up to the Rove type antics.

Good for us.

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Basil:

I read the article on McCain as well. While I find McCain's membership in that organization loathsome, I didn't buy the Bin Laden connection either.

Purging voters need to be transparent and regulated. Colorado is suspicious, as is anything self-proclaimed R's do around elections. The GOP brand is history, and history is the nightmare from which I'm trying to awake. Apologies to Joyce.

Obama Tsunami!

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Connor:

@KipTin

"I have now reported..."

Christ, you're a douche.

And you never answered my question: you called yourself a "progressive." What are you "progressive" policy positions?

We're waiting, douche.

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mysticlaker:

Kiptin is probably crying somewhere. He needs a few minutes.

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obamaownsboomcrapnkiptin:

I love watching kiptin squirm as the margin widens.I can just picture him cursing and slamming his hand on a desk everytime he sees the new polls squashing mcsame!
Thankyou for being you kiptin, a loser to the highest degree!

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@KipTin

It's been well documented that Osama Bin Laden was fighting with the Afgan rebels against the Soviets. It's also been documented that we supplied him with aid. The AP article points all this out.

John McCain sat on the board of a private group that was involved in aiding Bin Laden. How can you defend this? It shows what horrible judgement he has.

According to McCain, he finally left the group because they were engaged in some questionable activities. The group says that he didn't leave. His campaign still praises the work that this group did.

Somewhere, Osama Bin Laden has a commemorative pair of combat boots thanks to John McCain.

Are you going to defend someone who aids terrorists and is proud of it.

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Viperlord:

Shannon: In the new article you put up, I didn't actually see any reference to the Afghan rebels, did I miss it somewhere?

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

I posted some bad links a couple of times. I'll repost the text and the correct link.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Taken from the Huffington Post

The council, according to a 1986 New York Times report, "provided $10 million to $25 million in cash and 'in-kind' aid: four to eight small aircraft (''non gun-mounted'') to the contras, boots to rebels fighting Soviet troops in Afghanistan, $20,000 in medicines to Cambodian resistance forces, and help for groups in Mozambique, Ethiopia and other countries."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/06/why-mccains-time-with-cou_n_132470.html

The text block above the link is within the article.

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Paul:

Gallup: Change from the week 9-22 to 9-28, to the week 9-29 to 10-05 ---

Obama-McCain even age 18-29
Obama-McCain +4 age 30-49
Obama-McCain -1 age 50-64
Obama-McCain +5 age 65>
Obama-McCain +3 males
Obama-McCain +1 females
Obama-McCain +3 whites
Obama-McCain +3 blacks
Obama-McCain -1 Hispanics

Conclusion: Obama gain in that period (past tense - Gallup demographics run a week old) --- due to age 30-49, age 65>, whites, blacks and males

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