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US: Obama 51, McCain 42 (Zogby 10/21-24)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/21-24, 08; 1,203 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 51, McCain 42

 

Comments
maddiekat:

I see Zogby is working on getting back to where the race really is which is 6-8 points.

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mysticlaker:

mccain surge?

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Terranus:

maybe the Biden gaffe + JTP is working...

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drinkwine247:

I see Maddiekat is getting back to being negative ;-)

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pavoter:

Remember, counting that Gore did win the popular in 2000-then:
since 1960 the dems have won 6 of 12
since 1976 the dems have won 4 of 8
since 1992 the dems have won 3 of 4 (4 of 5 in 11 days)Throw in absolute TOTAL control of the House and Senate.
What was that about a national party no more Zell?

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Vokoban:

The usual end of week McCain bump. Little more than noise.

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drinkwine247:

By Noevmber 23rd McCain will take the lead! Interesting story about McCain campaign breaking McCain's law! Seriously, you can't even make this stuff up. I just don't even know who John McCain really is anymore.

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Atomique:

Ten days to go. Bye bye, Republicans.

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drinkwine247:

@pavoter

Great point. Well said.

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Ulysses:

In the next week McCain's main enemy will be his own campaign. If he can mitigate the disasters that have been happening and the stupid decisions vis-a-vis money, and focus on "big tent" big even appeals... he can pretty quickly make this a 5 point race. The rest is up to Fate.

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Viperlord:

Boomspin! Get in here and explain this away NOW!

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Paul:

Zogby internals 10-25-08:

Obama holds Dems 90.8 to 6.0
McCain holds Reps 84.5 to 10.0
Obama wins Independents by 16.1

Already voted: Obama +23.8

Males: Obama +3.2
Females: Obama +15.6

Whites: McCain +6.3
Hisp: Obama +45.8
AA: Obama +86.7

Obama holds liberals 90.1 to 2.7
Obama wins moderates 63.9 to 28.8
McCain wins conservatives 75.0 to 18.6

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drinkwine247:

@ ULYSSES

hahahahaah

Were you serious? They are already attacking each other. Annonymous sources this week, names next week!!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Ulysses

What exactly does a Republican believe in?

Is it free market capitalism or bank nationalization?

Do they think that we should have the most modern missle defense system known to man or that dinosaurs and people roamed the earth together 5000 years ago?

How can they be for small governement and big spending?

They rail against "pork" and excessive spending and then create a trillion dollar "pork monster" that is the Medicare prescription drug benefit program.

The Republican party is toast in the election because they can't answer a number of fundamental questions like "what do you represent."

They are a party divided and overmatched by a superior opponent. This election is over barring a "live boy, dead girl" scenario.

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NextAmericanChapter:

Ten days until the Republicans are handed their own asses on a platter. Good riddance. A Bachmann loss would just be gravy.

Sarah Palin should stop the mockery and sarcasm and go back to her governing style in Alaska i.e. as a charming center-right populist. The far-right, Obama-is-a-communist-and-terrorist nonsense is dragging her down with the rest of the bums.

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Viperlord:

These are the truest words out of boom****'s keyboard:

"Patrick,

Frankly, considering the horrendous job that the McCain team has done in squandering his early lead, I am kind of surprised to see you showing ur face around here at all.

Shouldn’t you be busy raising money or something? seriously dude, the McCain Campaign is a TRAIN WRECK. Fish stinks from the head down I suppose.

Ok, regarding the MIA thing. I have HAD IT with the whole idea that if you had a knack for losing planes, and you live as a POW as a result, you are some kind of HERO FOR LIFE and UNTOUCHABLE no matter what you do the rest of your life.

Sorry, but getting shot down and being a POW doesn’t make you a hero. Unlucky yes, hero no.

Hero’s are the guys that give up their lives fighting the enemy so their buddies can get away. Hero’s are the guys that throw themselves on a grenade to save their platoon. Hero’s run into a burning building to save people they don’t even know.

By calling everyone who gets a raw deal in a war a HERO cheapens the term.

And, in conclusion, he missed 43 votes. Hillary missed 3. Obama missed 3.

Dude, get a clue, your client is a politcal disaster."

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tar_heel:

mystic:

That poll does not look that great until you read the story. It's apparently the first time a Research 2000 poll shows O in the lead

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AtlantaBill:

Without Boom_@#$%^ there simply is no reason to be here. I'm looking forward to having him help explain that faux attack on ashley todd by that 6ft, 4in black guy. The McCaniacs are one desperate bunch. Wouldn't surprise me if boomer goes into hiding today leaving a note claiming he has been kidnapped by a senior black member of the Obama campaign staff. I repeat ... where is boomer and what will be carved onto him when re re-emerges.

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tar_heel:

Ras has O up by eight nationally, 52-44. It matches his biggest lead ever in that poll

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mysticlaker:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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[nemesis]:

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This eight point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead of the year in a race that has been remarkably stable down the stretch."

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ricbrig:

Ras O+8 52% O 44% M

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HKFlashman:

"This eight point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead of the year in a race that has been remarkably stable down the stretch. "

Going for 60(without Lieberman)...

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Cho:

Ras numbers are very, very good for Obama. 48% say they are certain to vote for him, only 40% say the same about McCain. Biggest spread ever.

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mysticlaker:

Statistical Tie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thank God.

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OneAngryDwarf:

To borrow a phrase from another website.

These poll numbers are great news!!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!

Where is the outrage? Where is the surge? Where is boomshak?

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[nemesis]:

Curse you Rasmussen, you liberal biased.... wait a minute... CRAP!!! NOT AGAIN!

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maddiekat:

Ohio newspaper poll Obama + 3. A couple of weeks ago it had him 2 down.

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Vokoban:

Ras O+8 52% O 44% M

Old lady Europe rubs her eyes in delight...

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fed:

That Ohio poll has a party id of just +3D

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jrcclark:

Ulysses:

"In the next week McCain's main enemy will be his own campaign. If he can mitigate the disasters that have been happening and the stupid decisions vis-a-vis money, and focus on "big tent" big even appeals... he can pretty quickly make this a 5 point race. The rest is up to Fate."

This election is going to be anywhere from 7 to 11% Obama. Even with 5% it's a landslide for BO. Of course there's the racial factor, but when you look at the state-by-state, I don't think it matters. Get ready for a Dem in the WH. The real cliffhanger is whether or not the Dems can get to the magic number of 60 in the Senate. Probably not, but if it gets close to 9%, anything can happen. States like Georgia and Montana could go Dem, and the Senate races in such states will be significantly impacted. There isn't a poll in the country that really can predict what will happen in such a scenario!

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jonny87:

great numbers from ras.

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NextAmericanChapter:

Rasmussen: Obama +8

Of all the polls out there, Rasmussen is the one most likely to mitigate any Bradley effect due to their automated calling. So if Obama is up by at least four in ten-days time, this thing will be a landslide. The new voters, AAs and the youth vote are being underestimated by most pollers except D-Kos.

BTW, I've been saying for a while that Georgia is going to be the shocker this year. The AA turnout is off-the-charts nuts. Now, even Bob Barr agrees:
http://www.bobbarr2008.com/press/press-releases/169/barr-predicts-mccain-will-lose-in-georgia/

Obama is running a great campaign with a fantastic ground-game that will be the subject of many a poli-sci class in the future. We should be proud of him.

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Indiana4Obama:

I wish the MO numbers were a little stronger, though I'll take a 1 pt lead. I think Obama has an excellent shot at MO.

The Ohio poll also is good news, especially with those demographics.

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jrcclark:

McCain's main enemy is indeed is own party. Except for the ridiculous religious nuts that would vote for even Sarah at the head of the ticket, there party is devoid of direction. Look how erratic they are! They even contradict each other at their rallies ...

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fed:

We might have some surprises in the South. Early voting looks great for Obama so far. On top of that, I have heard from some family members in NC that many white middle age women will vote Obama, even if they do not dare say so in public and in some cases to their family.

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jrcclark:

McCain's main enemy is indeed is own party. Except for the ridiculous religious nuts that would vote for even Sarah at the head of the ticket, their party is devoid of direction. Look how erratic they are! They even contradict each other at their rallies ...

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NextAmericanChapter:

@ Indiana4Obama:

The MO number is good. This is the first time that Obama has lead in MO with this pollster.

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Vokoban:

jrcclark, the guy with the nervous finger... (C:

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Viperlord:

Could some Republicans explain this for me, and then explain why we should ever put them back in office? http://www.cedarcomm.com/~stevelm1/usdebt.htm

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jrcclark:

NextAmericanChapter:

"Rasmussen: Obama +8

Of all the polls out there, Rasmussen is the one most likely to mitigate any Bradley effect due to their automated calling. So if Obama is up by at least four in ten-days time, this thing will be a landslide. The new voters, AAs and the youth vote are being underestimated by most pollers except D-Kos."

The Pew Research poll included youth and cell phone users. Their results came out 14% Obama. There is no telling what is going to happen in the South, or anywhere else for that matter. 60 in the Senate, now that's a question worthy of discussion.

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Kile Thomson:
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NextAmericanChapter:

@ jrcclark:

If the McCain campaign keeps jerking around next week as they did this week, then a 14-point win could come to fruition. Dare I hope...

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GeorgeHusseinBush:

Boomshak:

Obama +8 in Ras... uh oh!

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blakec:

Time for Boomfailed to pick a new greatest pollster in the universe.

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vmval1:

This thing is still so far from having being won... but if BO wins and the dems get a 60 seat Senate, it will be a textbook case of every action has an equal and opposite reaction.

The current situation should serve as a very dire warning to dems of the consequences of not using their mandate effectively.

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ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

vmval1:

"The current situation should serve as a very dire warning to dems of the consequences of not using their mandate effectively."

No doubt. They are being given the opportunity to lead, and they had better deliver, or the GOP will be right back in 4 years.

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MNLatteLiberal:

vmval1:

"This thing is still so far from having being won... but if BO wins and the dems get a 60 seat Senate, it will be a textbook case of every action has an equal and opposite reaction."

vm, we talked about this before, and as badly as I want it to happen, nate gives 60 seat scenario less than a third of a chance. And that's counting Lieberman among the 60.

We are at 51 now with the "L" word. 538 shows a straightforward path to an 8 pickup if everything falls our way in Stevens trial, Franken here in MN, Liz Dole going down in NC and if my brother in Porland is right about OR. The other 4 are relatively safe. But that yields only 59, again counting L, and I am not so sure we can count on L.

Something else has got to break. The other 3 races that are in pink today were deep red only Thursday when I last checked. So, there is some movement in KY, MS and GA, but even in Max Lelland's old seat in GA, Chambliss is given a 3 out of 4 chance of retaining the seat. To me, that's the best chance we have for that last seat pick up. And it's a 27% chance acc. to Nate.

Harry Reid's "Give 'em Hell" DNSC adopted our Al Franken and GA's Martin as their two guys to back nationally big time, afair. There has been a LOT of progress here for Al in MN, but in GA... ?

I want to be optimistic about that 60, but realistically I think we will have to work extra hard to pick up 2 Republican Senators next year when we want to break a filibusterer. And that, kids, is gonna be pretty damn hard.

Sorry about the long post

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JerryTheAngel:

If Obama cruises to an easy victory in Maine, then the two senators from main, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe will provide the two votes in the Senate to break a filibuster or face the music from their constituents.

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JFactor:

It shouldn't be too hard to sway a couple of Republicans along depending on the issue. Besides, if they do not reach 60 seats it's going to be easier for them in the next midterms and four years from now. If they have the filibuster-proof majority they better deliver big time which is really hard because the promises Dems have made are really hard to realize because of the current financial situation.

So the bottom line is that it might be a good thing for Dems if they don't reach the magic number 60 in the senate. Then they have the option of blaming Republicans at least in some way and they don't have the massive and unrealistic expectations upon them.
______________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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jrcclark:

JFactor:

"It shouldn't be too hard to sway a couple of Republicans along depending on the issue. Besides, if they do not reach 60 seats it's going to be easier for them in the next midterms and four years from now. If they have the filibuster-proof majority they better deliver big time which is really hard because the promises Dems have made are really hard to realize because of the current financial situation."

A lot of Republicans will have to go along with the situation, out of fear for being re-elected. Make no mistake about this, Reaganism and Reaganomics is dead. Trickle-down has never worked and it hasn't worked this time around! What is looming on the horizon is not what we have had for the past 28 years! Thank goodness, in my humble opinion ..

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