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US: Obama 51, McCain 43 (Gallup-10/22-24)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/22-24/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

2,793 Registered Voters:
Obama 51, McCain 42
(10/21-23: Obama 52, McCain 42)

2,358 Likely Voters-Expanded:
Obama 51, McCain 43
(10/21-23: Obama 51, McCain 44)

2,413 Likely Voters-Traditional:
Obama 51, McCain 44
(10/21-23: Obama 50, McCain 45)

 

Comments
boom&KipTinSUCK:

where's the prominent surrogate of McPalinocchio aka boomSPIN?

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BOOMFAIL:

Things are settling nicely at about a 9 point lead overall. About the same percentage as Reagan had over Carter, when he had about 480 electoral votes!

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE

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boomshak2.0:

I'm right here guys.By the way this poll is fail.It would only be correct if it showed McCain winning.

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

Now if boomSPIN throws out the MSM polls such as the ABC one or the NBC one to be fair he will need to do the same for the Ras one cause they are now convergent and suggest a 8-9 points edge

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PJ_FFM:

@BOOMFAIL

I'm afraid your comparison doesn't quite fit, because of 1) the "shy tory"-factor and 2) you forget that John Anderson ran in 1980, therefore 1980's numbers are fundamentally different as they included a third party candidate who had to be reckoned with in the place of 2008's "undecideds/others"...

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PJ_FFM:

Obama goes down with the "registered voters" and McCain goes down one with both "likely voters" models?

Hm.

I guess I stand corrected.

It now seems to me that the Gallup polls are not only projecting the likelies, but also the registered, based on a sample of more or less unknown composition.

At least this might explain the relatively high stability of the polls.

btw, I'd just *LOVE* to see the internals of the polled people of midweek compared to those for the weekend. My instinct tells me that the midweek samples might have a methodological error insofar as less "hardworking people" might be responding to phone calls asking for their political opinion in the middle of the workweek, compared to the weekend. At least this would give an explanation why Obama usually drops when the weekends drop out of the sample and usually gains when they are included again...

This effect would also explain why those pollsters who don't poll on weekends get far tighter races than those who do...

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TheCenterIsOnTheLeft:

I find it funny that people like boomshak think that propagating their spin in the comments section of a polling website will actually have impact on the election.

He basically wishes he was born the love child of Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity.

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