Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: Obama 51, McCain 44 (Gallup-10/25-27)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/25-27/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
2,781 Registered Voters:
Obama 50, McCain 43

2,396 Likely Voters-Expanded:
Obama 51, McCain 44

2,439 Likely Voters-Traditional:
Obama 49, McCain 47

 

Comments
DTM:

I think I know the basic outline of the answer, but it would be nice if someone from Gallup would discuss how their "traditional" model has recently been generating consistently more likely voters than their "expanded" model.

____________________

bpd1069:

Steady as she goes!

____________________

bpd1069:

@DTM
Expanded : 86.15% of RegV
Traditional : 87.70% of RegV

Difference : 1.55%

No big deal...

____________________

Trosen:

Trosen:
Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
Colorado 51.0 44.8 Obama +6.2
Ohio 50.3 44.3 Obama +6.0
Florida 48.2 45.5 Obama +2.7
Nevada 49.0 45.5 Obama +3.5
Missouri 47.4 46.8 Obama +0.6
North Carolina 48.8 47.2 Obama +1.6
Virginia 51.3 44.0 Obama +7.3

So trolls.. all McCain has to do is come from behind and win ALL these states...

Then.. flip PA.

Best of luck.

____________________

NHBlue:

"LIEBERMAN TO HAVE DIFFICULT TIME IN NEXT SENATE"

Say it ain't so, Joe!

____________________

NHBlue:

I added a [snicker] in angle brackets which got taken for a tag -- oops

____________________

NHBlue:

of course, if he's #60...

____________________

Trosen:

Guys.. keep in mind these "expanded models" and "traditional models" are very UN-scientific. They are completely hypothetical "guesses" by the pollster, not even theoretical ones. Time and time again, as Chuck Todd and other poll "gurus" have said, the RV # is the one to watch if you really want a handle on how the race seems to be shaping up.

____________________

DTM:

@bpd1069

Well, part of the issue is that I strongly suspect the traditional model does not contain all the people in the expanded model plus a few more, but in fact is swapping out a certain group of marginal voters and replacing them with a different, slightly larger, group of marginal voters. So while you are correct the net effect on the number of people is small, the churn in the underlying population could be a lot higher.

____________________

oicu:
____________________

MaxMBJ:

Two points! It's down to 2 points in the more reliable traditional model.

Unbelievable! I was hoping for 2 points by the weekend.

I am really starting to get concerned for all these pundits who have written their Obama celebration pieces already. Me-oh-me! This one is going to make Truman-Dewey look like an easy call.

____________________

AB:

Here are the early voting numbers for NC, as of 7:30 am this morning:
1,412,113 early voters
771,549 registered Dems (54.64%)
396,112 registered Repubs (28.05%)
Difference: 375,437 (a real number for the enthusiasm gap)

There are 2,841,111 registered Dems in NC, leaving 2,069,562 to go to the polls.
There are 1,991,497 registered Repubs in NC, leaving 1,595,385 to go to the polls.
Dems are voting now, and turning out in much better numbers than Repubs, and yet we still have the advantage in numbers left to vote ...

____________________

zvelf:

We’re one week out from election day and here is the state of the race. If you count all states in which Obama has a lead of 6 points or more according to Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics, Obama leads McCain 286 to 252. Making it even tougher for McCain, Obama leads in the following “toss-up” states I’ll define as a less than 6-point lead:

FL (Pollster: O +2.2, RCP: O +2.7)
MO (Pollster: O +1.8, RCP: O +0.6)
NV (Pollster: O +3.8, RCP: O +3.5)
NC (Pollster: O +2.2, RCP: O +1.6)
OH (Pollster: O +4.8, RCP: O +6.3)

And Obama is closer to getting Indiana than McCain is to getting any of the states above:

IN (Pollster: M +1.7, RCP: M +0.3)

So for McCain to win at this point, he has to win FL, MO, NV, NC, and OH, every single one, all of which Obama leads in, and get two of the following three states:

CO (Pollster: O +6.5, RCP: O +6.2)
NH (Pollster: O +8.6, RCP: O +7.7)
VA (Pollster: O +8.0, RCP: O +7.3)

What do those leads mean percentage-wise? Fivethirtyeight.com tells us that Obama’s chances to win in CO, NH, and VA are 95%, 94%, and 96%, respectively. Election-projection.net tells us that Obama’s chances to win in CO, NH, and VA are 91%, 92%, and 95%, respectively. So what are McCain chances of winning the election mathematically speaking? Fivethirtyeight.com says 3.3%. Election-projection.net says 0.0%.

____________________

BridgeportJoe:

I suspect that the Traditional model is slicing off first time and infrequent voters, no matter how enthusiastic they are about the election, but keeping in voters with a voting history, no matter how (un)enthusiastic they are. I suspect that the Expanded model is doing the reverse -- and the former group is slightly smaller than the latter.

In any event, the Traditional screen is throwing out a disproportionate number of Democrats compared to other polls. I get that it is sifting out 4 Obama voters for every McCain voter, which does not strike me as plausible or consistent with other polls.

____________________

DTM:

Two points in the traditional model is indeed "unbelievable", provided of course you forget about the fact it has already been at two points--for three straight days in fact--about ten days ago.

____________________

s.b.:

The traditional model has worked for over 50 years and contains 8% first time voters. There is no evidence that first time voters will be any higher than in 2004, in fact Gallup has shown it is exactly the same, keeping in mind that 2004 had historic voter turnout.

____________________

orange24:

Unbelievable! I was hoping for 2 points by the weekend.

Just make sure you're here a week from tomorrow.

____________________

zombieflanders:

@MaxMBJ

And your point is? McCain was at 49-47 two weeks ago, and that lasted all of 3 days, followed by butt-whoopin's for the rest of the time.

Of course, I don't mind a "tight race" narrative. It gets more Dems out to vote!

____________________

orange24:

This thing isn't even CLOSE to two points. Most people put it at around 5 or 6 when figuring up the national average. Personally, I think it's closer to 8 or 9. Clinton beat Dole by 8 and it was a massive EC landslide. This one may beat it. Stay tuned.

____________________

southern angler:

Another bad day for Obama on Gallup

____________________

Hans24:

BOOMSHAK:

Talk about wealth redistribution:


"We're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

-- Gov. Sarah Palin, quoted by the New Yorker, a few weeks before she was nominated for vice president.


OH NO! NOW MC CAIN/PALIN, TOO! Socialists and Commies!

Just wait until Fox News spends the entire day on Palin's quote like they did yesterday on Obama's! This poll will turn around tomorrow!

Oh yah, forgot, Fox News is "Fair & Balanced", so you won't see this there.

____________________

pbcrunch:

Meh... whatever tightening there is, it seems to be relegated to McCain's base in the South, at least according to R2K.

Also, the state polls are consistently VERY good for Obama. He is even or outpacing the expanded Gallup tracker in enough states to reach 270.

____________________

PostModernProphet:

With the lions share of attention being paid to every poll under the sun, I think that some rather interesting perspective can be gleaned by paying attention to another source of predictive indexes. For those of you not familiar with the "Iowa Electronic Markets", I STRONGLY suggest checking them out. The Iowa Electronic Markets have been FAR more accurate in predicting the outcome of political events than the majority of polls....and the IEM shows an OVERWHELMING majority of the action on Barack Obama becoming our next President. The IEM breaks down the Presidential race into "Winner Take All" and "Voteshare".

As of 2:30pm EST the current market prediction on Barack Obama is 55.4% of the popular vote, and an overwhelming price of 87.8 cents on the dollar for every "winner take all" contract. In addition to the IEM, another very telling market lies within the realm of the Offshore Sportsbook industry.

Two weeks ago the price breakdown at Five Dimes on the Presidential race was as follows:

Obama -500
McCain +375

Today the price breakdown is:

Obama -1050
McCain +675

Based on a moneyline to % conversion, the current price breakdown suggests that the Offshore market predicts Obama as a 91.3% favorite to win this election. Advanced statistical analysis, comprehensive polling techniques, and intricate analysis of polls are all worthwhile....but nothing speaks more powerfully than money. The market has been absolutely FLOODED by LARGE sums of money POURING in on OBama.....and a lot of the Offshore books are no longer accepting any more wagers on the election...and it has been reported that some Offshore books have already begun paying off some OBama wagers placed when the price was far less than it is now.

This thing isn't over....but the reports of a McCain surge are greatly over stated. For all of you nervous, up-tight Democrats...check out the Iowa Electronic Markets and some of the Offshore Sportsbook prices and you will start to feel better.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Two points today, 1 tomorrow ... my, my, my it's getting dark here around the graveyard. Better keep whistling! Maybe it'll drive those ghosts of 2000 and 2004 away.

____________________

Ryguy:

max mbj... your comments seem to imply that you not only believe this race to be tightening, but you are predicting this race will be won by mccain. i bet you wouldnt even put down a 10 dollar bet for mccain, but you sound tough over the internet... not really, i just like to make jokes.

____________________

PostModernProphet:

Well placing a bet on McCain and then losing....and having his money shipped to someone placing a winning wager on Obama would be a prime example of Democratic redistribution....

____________________

Trosen:

Obama can lose every toss up state AND PA and still win. (Per pollster's map). Actually.. he could lose every "yellow" state and somehow lose PA AND VA and still win!


Ok.. more "realistic." Let's say Obama holds PA (likely) but loses OH (possible). Obama could still let VA slip away AND CO and STILL WIN!! I am trying very hard to give the trolls the benefit of the doubt and find a somewhat likely path for McCain to 270.. but I'm not seeing it.

Ok.. how about this.

- McCain wins every state where he's solidly ahead or leaning his way (likely)

- McCain wrests back Ohio (plausible)

- McCain wins EVERY toss up state (fairly unlikely)

- McCain wrests back Virginia (I'll say fairly unlikely, but possible)

Ok.. great.. now he's chipped Obama's EV count down to 283. Now what?


Let's say he... somehow swings back Colorado (pretty unlikely) Ok.. now Obama's down to 274

Now what? NH? (extremely unlikely) Now we're at a 269 tie. Tie goes to Obama.

How about.. NM? (I'd say damn near impossible, especially in light of the fact that McCain has more or less pulled up stakes there)

Where else?? MN? IA? WI? MI???

Now you see why McCain is gonna ride PA into the ground, hoping for a miracle. But the PA Hail Mary aside.. Add up all these "unlikelies," "very unlikelies" and "damn near impossibles," assume they ALL happen...and where are you.. basically, tied.

Help me out here trolls. Where's the path to 270?

____________________

BridgeportJoe:

The traditional model has worked for over 50 years and contains 8% first time voters. There is no evidence that first time voters will be any higher than in 2004, in fact Gallup has shown it is exactly the same, keeping in mind that 2004 had historic voter turnout.

I thought recent Gallup polling put self-professed first time voters at 13%? Which was the same as polling showed 2004, though I note that (1) voting was at recent historic highs in 2004, and (2) the difference between saying you are going to be a first time voter and actually voting for the first time is dictated by campaigns' ground games -- as does anyone think that Kerry's ground game was remotely as effective as Obama's?

____________________

tar_heel:

Obama just got a MAJOR ASSIST from the weather in Philly. The conclusion of Game 5 is postponed till tomorrow night, which means millions more will watch Obama's speech before the national pastime resumes.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Hey, Ryguy,

While it's true I haven't put down any money yet on McCain, my son bought $100 on Intrades this week based on my enthusiasm. The only reason I haven't is because he told me it's a real pain setting up the account.

Anyway, I probably will plunk down a hundred here in the next day or two.

And yes, I do think McCain is going to win. Honestly. There are so many troubling things about the Cult of Obama, so many, that people will change their minds in the next week and even in the booth. I know because I know some that already are in that process.

Furthermore, this election more than any in my lifetime (and I've watched them all since 1976) is establishing new paradigms and patterns. I will be the first to admit that 100,000 people at an Obama rally in Denver on Sunday is impressive. The enthusiasm is there. But my take on it is that it runs deep but not wide. Among the enthusiasts, he's God. Among those who aren't that political, he's an articulate man who happens to be African-American who might just take away some of the stain of slavery. So they might vote for him just on that.

But there's more to this country than one issue. On economics I honestly believe McCain will win the vote. Why? Because he has captured all the sound byte messages of the last two weeks on economics from Joe the Plumber to Redistributionist. Even though most Americans dont' even know what Socialism really is, they don't like it.

And so, when they finally pull the lever, I believe many will go with the tried and true, flawed, yes, but true, over the new and unproven.

Sorry for so long a post.

____________________

Incumbent:

"McCain misreads 2001 Obama interview"

Thank God there's ONE major media outlet not just repeating McCain's talking points about this 2001 Obama interview:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081028/ap_on_el_pr/fact_check_redistributing_wealth_1;_ylt=AvN0RjF1zZKgGe3iLpQdT67LLJ94

____________________

zombieflanders:

IBD/TIPP:

O 47.7
M 43.7

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=310068083524223

From O+2.8 to O+4.0 in 24 hours! MCCAIN SUR--Oh, wait...

____________________

laguna_b:

Palin the Communist Collectivist:
"We're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

-- Gov. Sarah Palin, quoted by the New Yorker, a few weeks before she was nominated for vice president.

____________________

BridgeportJoe:

"We're set up, unlike other states in the union, where it's collectively Alaskans own the resources. So we share in the wealth when the development of these resources occurs."

Duh. Increasing the top two marginal tax rates by 3% = socialism or maybe even communism.

Literal state ownership of natural resources with profits derived from said resources distributed to the people of the state = the good ol' Alaskan way.

____________________

paradski:

Ouch, Boom betrayed by IBD....

O+1 and he reaches his highest mark yet.

____________________

Obamanuck:

In all likelihood, this thing comes down to the Eastern seaboard. If Obama wins any two of PA, FL and VA, he wins. He could and probably would win even if he only wins one of those three, but we might have to wait for results in another timezone to know for sure. Two of three assures him of a victory.

The McCain/Palin play for PA is a major hail mary, but it is realistically all they've got. If they somehow win PA and things break their way in FL, OH and the remaining tossups (which is certainly not out of the realm of possibility given that they are all Bush states), they would win, even while losing VA, NH, NM, CO and IA. So it seems to me the strategy is make a play for PA and cross your fingers that everything else that could break your way does so.

It could work, though I think it pretty unlikely. If even just Nevada goes Obama under that scenario, Obama wins. Ultimately I think the enthusiasm among Obama supporters coupled with their ground game will ensure that he wins, easily.

____________________

kc_in_MN:

Though not a betting person, I have been considering wager on McCain. I wouldn't be surprised if he could pull off a win, though I'm an Obama supporter. If Obama loses, then at least I could make back my campaign contributions.

____________________

PJ_FFM:

Uhm... anyone register that the "traditional model" is down to O+2?

PLEASE don't do this to me and to the rest of the world... PLEASE don't give this planet four more years of continuous megalomaniac warfare... and for heaven's sake - don't let this insult to anyone's intelligence, this female version of Dan Quayle, become Dan Quayle's heir to the joke of the the worst feared words in the world, when uttered by the P.o.t.US waking up - "Honey, I don't feel so well..."

____________________

@MaxMBJ

That's a joke, right? I mean, you have to tell yourself that scenario is true in order to get through the next week, but you don't actually believe that nonsense. Do you?

Talk about taking "delusional" to new levels. Go ahead and completely ignore the electoral college map, substituting a fantasy in which 10% of the electorate is just going to up and change its mind in 5 days.

"On economics I honestly believe McCain will win the vote. Why? Because he has captured all the sound byte messages of the last two weeks on economics from Joe the Plumber to Redistributionist."

No one has bought any of that crap. You think it's great, but you were going to vote for him anyway. You must have your head 3 feet into the sand if you think the "joe the plumber" hore**** has been anything but a disaster for McCain.

____________________

Stonecreek:

Anyone notice that Gallup finally put out a useful number? ALREADY VOTED = O-52, Mc-42; or just exactly the same as their REGISTERED VOTER percentages. Since early/absentee voting has historically favored the Republicans, how can this be anything but horrible news for them?

How 'bout that Pew? A 14 point spread from a truly neutral, truly academic non-profit group. Pew has always seemed a straight shooter, what rationale do the McCainiacs have for Pew "missing" this one so badly?

____________________

TheLioness:

@MAXmbj

"...Among those who aren't that political, he's an articulate man who happens to be African-American who might just take away some of the stain of slavery. So they might vote for him just on that."

"But there's more to this country than one issue. On economics I honestly believe McCain will win the vote. Why? Because he has captured all the sound byte messages of the last two weeks on economics from Joe the Plumber to Redistributionist.

You seem like a sweet old dude, so I'm inclined to let the first part of your narrow-minded and insulting little statement pass, though you should be ashamed of it (I was once a McCain admirer, until he fell down the rabbit hole of the right-wing base who cannot imagine anyone in "the middle" voting for a black man based on his qualifictions.) But do you really not understand how laughable the entire 'Joe the non-taxpaying, now has a tax lien, never really had the money to buy his boss' business, thinks he's now qualified to run for congress after 15 minutes of fame the plumber' sound byte is? Did you SEE "Tito the Construction worker" at Palin's ralley in VA? It has become a monster of a parody, a cartoon, a terrible joke, or waking nightmare if you're an intelligent conservative. Watching McCain's ads makes me squirm for the man. I'm EMBARRASSED for him. He never, ever explains HOW he's going to be different, what his plan is, only how Obama is "bad" with misquotes and misinformation. How can you vote for that?

____________________

douglasdao:

Again - every single poll shows a lead for Obama larger than the poll's margin or error.

____________________

johncoz:

Gallup's LV2 number seems to be right on the money in terms of the 3-day trackers.

This is the nine-day graph of the weighted averages for the 3-day trackers.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3062/2981095942_f4eae86c28_b.jpg

McCain has "surged" back to again breach 44%, just.

Looking back over the past month of data, I cannot see anything challenging the underlying reality that Obama has had a lead which is deeply structural, and that most of the variations in national polling have represented little more than an interplay of weightings and models -- none of which reflect any real change in the basic dynamic of this race.

____________________

Stonecreek:

The early vote continues to be a HUGE reversal for Democrats, intruding into the domain that was previously dominated by Republicans. This, from the Washington Post:

[italics] Among those who said they have already voted at an early voting location or sent in an absentee ballot, Barack Obama picked up 60 percent of the vote in the new poll to John McCain's 39 percent.

These early voting numbers are a near mirror-image of those from the last two elections: A paper using the National Annenberg Election Study reports that George W. Bush scored 62 percent of early voters in 2000 and 60 percent of them in 2004. [/italics]

Sixty-Forty is astounding! Can anyone posit how McCain could possibly make up this deficit on election day?

____________________

UpstateProgressive:

Pollster.com adds NV to the Obama leaners, so the count is now 311 for Obama with 85 tossup EVs. Of the tossups, Obama leads in states with 56 EV. So that makes 367 leaning toward Obama with a week to go.

Requiem for a Maverick?

____________________

douglasdao:

MaxMBJ -

First, I thank you for an intelligently worded response - so much better than the screaming screeds we usually get from McCain supporters here.

However, I cannot agree with your argument. You base your hope for a McCain victory on the theory that an overwhelming number of people will change their minds at the last minute. People do indeed change their minds in many elections in the final day or even in the booth. In this election, a number will change their minds from McCain to Obama and others from Obama to McCain. There is no doubt that that will happen.

But what you are asking us to believe is that the number of people who change their mind from Obama to McCain will be overwhelmingly more than from McCain to Obama - this because no sane person doubts that Obama is ahead. Where is there any reason to believe this will happen? What force will drive literally hundreds of thousands of people to reverse course? There are no major events, no major new revelations to drive such a switch. If the attack machine that has been smearing Obama not just for the past month but the past year has not succeeded in dislodging him as the front-runner already, why would that suddenly work in the last week? It is a a leap of pure faith to think it will.

What is more, I emphasize again that your argument requires overwhelming MORE people to change their minds away from Obama than away from McCain. Though you could say some people will freak out and refuse to vote for a half-black guy at the last minute or who fall for the smears and abandon Obama, that is not the only factor you need to consider. Consider also how many people will have misgivings about McCain. Could people not freak out about his age, especially given that that opens up the bigger freakout about the prospect of a President Palin? We could argue whether more people will freak out about this or that, but again, considering that there are significant perceived liabilities on both sides, any notion other than the mind-changing will roughly cancel each other out is just wishful thinking.

Peace,
Douglas

____________________

TheDragon:

The National polls are not that important. McCain needs to win PA to have any realistic shot. IMO he is hoping that the PA is the racist state and that these polls can change.

McCain pretty much has a couple of ways to win. Obama can win in any number of ways. There is a reason why Republicans already talking about the Obama administration. Even some of the crazy far right guys.

The only people that expect McCain to win those hoping for a massive Bradley effect. How else would you put money down. McCain could win Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and PA and still win the election.

The problem the Republic have is they are out of it in to many big states. California and New York/ NJ are 101 EV by themselves. Add PA and IL and you have 140 EC without really working hard. We haven't even gotten into all the other given wins for the Democrats. The only way Republicans can win these days are in close elections like 04 and 00. The days of Reagan are over. As bad as Kerry was he was one Ohio or Florida away from being President. The entire country was red that year. I believe Kerry won 20 states last election. Obama is winning 30 states right now. Getting those 30 states are getting tougher and tougher the more diverse and populated the country gets.

____________________

s.b.:

Orange 24: Clinton lost 10 points in the last week. He was up by 18% on Oct 27th.

____________________

s.b.:

Orange 24: Clinton lost 10 points in the last week. He was up by 18% on Oct 27th, that's in Gallup "traditional" model.

____________________

johncoz:

@s.b.

Of course, a comeback is always possible. But:

1. There is no sign of it yet. Yesterday's polls represent about 30,000 interviews (of which the national trackers comprise about 8,000). Taken in total, the race has not moved.

2. The map just keeps on looking incrementally worse for McCain. NV now light blue, for instance.

3. The biggest remaining "event" on the calender is Obama's prime time blitz, while McCain is enmeshed in the indiscipline of this own campaign and unwelcome exploding bombs like Sen Stevens.

About all that's left for McCain is hoping for a major blunder from the opposition, a very faint hope indeed.

____________________

gossamer:

am i the only obama supporter that is at least a little worried that mccain has been cutting the lead rapidly. today it's what? 4.5 pts on average? a few days ago it was 7 pts.

i know obama seems to have the electoral vote, but the state polls could close too.

it ain't over yet, and don't get cocky and say it is. keep pushing and vote.

____________________

TheDragon:

@douglasdao:

Yeah many people must be betting that America is really a racist nation and when they push the ballot they will just flip to a completely different ticket.

People use Obama lead in the polls in the NH primaries and how they turned out wrong to be reasons why it could happen again. Problem is primaries are nothing like the election. Its easy to go from Obama to Hilary Clinton. They both share many similarities and philosophy. If your going Obama now to change to McCain would be a major switch. A switch that I don't expect hundreds of thousands of people to do.

____________________

Gary Kilbride:

gossamer, yes there's a small consistent tightening. I look at the national polls and ignore state polls. It's been a net for McCain for several days and today looks to follow suit. It's pure novice folly that national polls don't matter and we need to focus exclusively on state polls. It's actually just the opposite. When the national polls move, the states are not immune.

I never believed the high brow margins so this doesn't concern me at all. Comebacks are primarily a myth. Give me the lead, particularly when votes have been cast for a couple of weeks in many states. Obama will win but he won't pluck the fringe red states. I can't believe I was able to play Georgia at 1/2 last night. That makes up for the possibility of losing my McCain wager in North Carolina, although that state can go either way. Early voting may rescue Obama in North Carolina. I doubt he'd win it if voting started today or solely on election day.

____________________

Basil:

gossamer

Check out Nate Silver's analysis at fivethirtyeight. It doesn't support your figures. I'm not counting any chickens, though.

____________________

gossamer:

Basil

i was just using the average of polls from today. and that 4.5ish is quite a bit down from their average.

____________________

gossamer:

when mccain was up in the polls and the electoral projections a co-worker and i placed a bet. both of us figured obama would win. i figured on a close race and he was banking on a landslide.

our bet:

if obama wins by 20 or more electoral votes (279-259), i owe him a taco mayo value meal.

and we added some more flare to that.

for every 10 votes over (or under, for me) we owe each other an additional taco.

i hope i end up owing him a value meal plus 8 tacos.

____________________

MaxMBJ:

Lioness and Douglas,

Hope I'm not so late in responding that you don't return to see it.

My assumption for a change in the polls is simply that I believe there is a kind of Bradley effect going on right now but I don't think it has to do with race. I have seen no evidence of that in my own connections nor in the data.

The Effect I'm talking about is the Nebulous Effect, I'll call it. Barack Obama is a very vague, murky fellow. Just tonight on one of the many blogs and sites I read I came across an article (L.A. Times, I think) in which the reporter said she's covered Obama for one year now and, though he's amazingly charismatic on the stage, mano a mano he's a bit of a bore.

He's standoffish. He's remote. He doesn't seem to have soul. That's what I read over and over and its getting louder. I'm sure you've heard some of the same. This is sneaking through the cracks of Obama's facade.

I myself when I first took notice of him four years ago thought, "Now there's a Democrat I could vote for." As late as this summer I almost fell under his spell. I argued with relatives that he may be the man to help heal the racial divide that is America's true Original Sin.

But the more I read about him, the more I delved into his connections (yes, the Ayers thing and much more), the more I really truly wondered who he is. Even now as I write this, I'm just not sure. Is he a socialist? He certainly has had many Marxist mentors. But maybe, as some say, he's really not an idealogue. Maybe he's just a pragmatist.

I don't know. And I don't think you do either. I don't think anyone knows exactly what makes Barack Obama tick. He is an enigma. I doubt even Rev. Wright knows what's at the center of this man. He may be a conversative at the core. Honestly.

We just don't know. So when people go into that booth that's the Nebulous Effect I think will take over. They'll think, "Gee, McCain's an old geezer who ran around the debate stage like Yosemite Sam, but he's a guy who stayed in prison confinement when he could've been released because he wouldn't forsake his fellow soldiers." Would Barack have done that? Who knows?

We'll see if I'm right. But I'd like to know if my statement here rings true with any of the rest of you out there, even you Obama supporters.

____________________

TheDragon:

The close polls reflect expectation of average turnout. I've yet to see anything to suggest this will be an average turnout election. In this case perhaps by being AA gives him an advantage. People love to be part of history. The lines around the country for early voting suggest the turnout will be huge. The turnout not only for AA will be higher than anytime in history. The turnout for minorities in general is likely higher than anytime in history.

If you been buying the traditional voter model you likely thought this race was always just a few points. Right now Gallups likely voter model is most likely the more accurate of the 4 polls. Polls around the country show about a 7 point lead. They have shown that for a few weeks.

____________________

joethevoter:

Could someone explain the discrepancy in the early voter exit polls? Pew has Obama up by 19 points, while Diageo/Hotline has them almost even ( 48% to 47% Obama).

Thanks,
Florida Voter

____________________

Bigmike:

Lions and tigers and bears, oh my.

In three days, lib icon daily kos has gone from O +12 to O +7. At that rate, things will be tied by....

....

....

....

What do you know, tied by the weekend.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR