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US: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Gallup-10/13-15)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/13-15/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

Registered Voters (2,786 RV, 2%):
Obama 49, McCain 43

Likely Voters-Expanded (2,312 LV, 2%):
Obama 51, McCain 45

Likely Voters-Traditional (2,143 LV, 2%):
Obama 49, McCain 47

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Registerd Voters are the ones who will turn out this election. This is NOT 2004, my friends.
Steady as she goes.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Yay...mccain is within the MOE....take that libs!

I knew my praying would pay off...look for an overwhelming victory this election.

Obama's attacks on Joe the Plumber will only make him more unpopular.

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DTM:

So with this poll now processed, the most sensitive national chart has detected a possible leveling around Obama 50, McCain 43. The default chart also has McCain leveling around 43, but still has Obama trending up past 50. Finally, the least sensitive chart has Obama still trending up past 50 and McCain down past 43.

In short, we are still waiting for more polls to confirm who, if anyone, has leveled out yet.

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Viperlord:

Statistical tie Republifails? LOL.

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Oldy75:

Alan Keyes where you been? You must of been proud that McCain doesn't believe in the "health of the Mother" exception. I guess Obama is a sinner in your mind for his views(he called Obama a sinner in 2004).

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johncoz:

Some Perspective

In the three days leading up to the second debate, Obama's numbers progressively tightened in the weighted average of the five daily trackers. And on the day after the debate he was sitting dead on 50%. In the subsequent three days his position progressively improved to reach 50.9% with an 8-point spread. I have computed the weighted average of the trackers for today for comparison.

Thursday 10/16

Obama 50.3/ McCain 44.1/ +6.2

Wednesday 10/8

Obama 50/ McCain 43.37/ +6.6

So while there has been a tightening, it is hardly outside of pattern we have seen during the past 10 days (the only real difference being that McCain has finally breached 44%, as predicted this morning).

It should be noted that 538's projection of the national vote on ED stands at 52/46. Personally, I think Nate's mean-regression (tightening) is a little undercooked, and my expectation based on the current numbers is 51/47, still a decisive victory.

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zotz:

The one final hope for the Reps is that minorities and youth will stay home and the Rep base will turn out like in 2004.

Well, from my perspective I doubt it. I remember 2004 very well. I saw Bush/Cheney signs and bumper stickers everywhere. I saw Viva Bush! signs on cars with Hispanics. Now I see hardly anything. I have seen only a few Obama bumper stickers but I have seen exactly one McCain/Palin bumper sticker. I live in a Republican county of SoCal so the dirth of pro-McCain signs is striking.

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IMind:

I live in a 50/50 county in Northeastern PA... that probably leans slightly more R than D in the suburbs... and there are very very few pockets of McCain sighs but they are overwhelmed by Obama supporters.

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IMind:

I hit post prematurely... but it's all about the enthusiasm gap.

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katocat:

@alankeyesisawesome:

"Obama's attacks on Joe the Plumber will only make him more unpopular."


Uh oh, turns out "joe the plumber" doesn't have a plumber's license:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27207215/

Not sure why he's so worried about his taxes when he doesn't seem to pay them:

"A representative at the court explained that Wurzelbacher had not paid $1,182.98 of personal income tax. The state filed a lien on January 26, 2007, and the payment remains outstanding."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/16/joe-the-plumber-is-it-see_n_135211.html


Say it ain't so Joe!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Oldy75

Health of the mother is a red herring floated by Democrats...I'm sure so many women can come up with false indicators for their health that will allow them to have fun aborting their babies at the last minute.

I don't think we should make exception even when the life of the mother is in jeopardy, as we can still perhaps save the baby in these instances.

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Oldy75:

This Alan Keyes guy cracks me up. He should start a Fake Alan Keyes blog so the rest of world can read this stuff.

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Keep VA Red:

Obama Nation = Abomination!

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Trosen:

oldy.. this is it.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@katocat

Why are you attacking Joe...obviously your life is not perfect either. I love how democrats see it fit to judge every aspect of their lives...they need to focus on their own.

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zotz:

alankeyesisawesome-
You say it so much better than McCain! I wish you were on his campasign staff. I'm sure if you were on his staff there would be a big difference in the polls.

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Oldy75:

Keep VA Red:

Obama Nation = Abomination!

Wow Keep VA Red did you come up with that all on your own? Your parents must be so proud... Maybe some of Grampy's unlicensed teachers taught that to you. Remind me to call you when I need political slogans.

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KipTin:

Oh, great. Now Obamanation is bent on personally destroying "Joe the Plumber". Denigrating Sarah Palin and John McCain was not enough. Apparently they can not help themselves because they have to destroy anyone that threatens their chosen ONE. Too cult-like.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@zotz

Thank you for the compliment...I did actually apply to the McCain campaign after he won the primary to get a job as a spokesman, but i never heard back from them. Oh, well, their loss.

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OGLiberal:

New Ras in Ohio (sneak peek):

O - 49 (nc)
M - 47 (+2)

Well, the undecideds had to go somewhere. And with Obama very close to 50, they were probably going to go McCain. Still, a tie for Obama in Ohio at this point with so few undecides is actually pretty good for him, IMHO. Turnout could give him the state.

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Keep VA Red:

well Oldy, I can't say anything requiring too much thought on this site, since I'm writing primarily to democrats. I have to dumb it down to the level that democrat policies have brought our schools, so that you guys can understand.

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1503er:

I also live in a Republican county in Southern Cal and for a long time I never saw any McCain signs or stickers. And I never saw any Obama signs or stickers either. But I have noticed in the last couple of weeks quite a few McCain/Palin yard signs popping up. And I've seen a few McCain bumper stickers. Am I seeing the beginnings of the Republicans getting motivated to go vote? I have yet to see more than a handful of Obama stickers or signs here. But again, I live in a Republican county. But I did notice NO McCain signs to suddenly with in a couple of weeks quite a number of them popping up.

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Trosen:

So let's see.. the new GOP savor.. Joe the plumber:

- Isn't a licensed Plumber

- Doesn't make anywhere near the 250K that he fears would raise his taxes under the Obama plan

- Does have good reason to worry about taxes, as he still owes the IRS over $1000 in unpaid income tax

- Is related to Charles Keating

- Would actually benefit greatly from Obama's tax and health care plan while suffering under McCain's

How does one fail so thoroughly in one shot? Well, it does prove that Americans (like my father) will still happily line up and vote proudly against their own interests in the name of their "team." (ra-ra go team) Pretty sad.

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mrut:

McCain's derision of "the health of the mother" as a flimsy excuse to trick someone to give her an abortion is a vote-loser among women. Stupid McCain.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@mrut
Well, under Obama, they may be able to trick the government, but they will not be able to trick God...those women will go to hell no matter who is in office.

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zotz:

KipTin-
You should speak more respectfully about the next president of the United States. I question your patriotism. You might concider moving to Russia if you don't like it here.

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boomshak:

INSIDE SCOOP FROM OBAMA INTERNAL POLLSTER:

I have an interesting story to relay that took place earlier this week between my boss (a senior VP in the company I work for) and one of the Obama campaigns’ internal pollsters…

As she was explaining her perspective it dawned on her to ask why he (the Obama internal pollster) was interested in her view of Palin. He replied that Obama’s campaign is extremely nervous about the energized republican base and what he called the “unkown factor” regarding Palin’s draw as a candidate.

In the polls they’re conducting around the country, and my boss wasn’t able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.

More than that, they don’t know how to guage and predict the support of people typically turned off by politics, but that are enamored with her “up from the bootstraps” appeal.

I say all of this because this pollster conveyed strong concern about their standing going into the homestretch. They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class and whole swaths of the electorate they consider the “unkowns.” In fact, and based on her conversation with this internal pollster for Obama, he’s not ahead in the polls as we’re being told. He’s at best tied.

---

You can choose to believe this or not, but it makes sense given the tightening in Rasmussen and Gallup as well as Obama warning not to become complacent.

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KipTin:

Now I will comment on the Gallup poll. Definitely show tightening of race as does Rasmsussen. Gallup said yesterday that McCain polled well on Tuesday, so apparently he also did well on Wednesday. After last night's debate it looks like McCain has found a message that works on the economy... Wrong time to raise taxes and expand government.

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mrut:

alankeyes

God's judgment is His own. McCain's words and attitude lose him votes he desperately needs.

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maddiekat:

Karl Rove and "Pals" are attempting to win the election one last time by a way of a culture war. The reason Obama is going to win unlike Kerry and Gore is will expose Joe the toilet man, and Mcliar for the frauds that they are.

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boomshak:

HERE'S THE WHOLE ARTICLE:

Conversations with an internal pollster for Obama...
Very enlightening indeed!

Posted by: David_Rasbold

Thursday, October 16, 2008 at 10:09AM CDT

I have an interesting story to relay that took place earlier this week between my boss (a senior VP in the company I work for) and one of the Obama campaigns' internal pollsters.

Just to note, my boss is a republican and was meeting the Obama rep over lunch for other reasons. Politics obviously came up due to his line of work.

He asked my boss what her political leanings were and they did some chit chat around the issues and the impressions each had on the state of the race. What happened next was more than fascinating and should be a reminder to all of us to buck up and remain strong. All is not lost. In fact, we may be in a much better spot than we think - despite the national polls and what the daily media drumbeat to give up.

He asked my boss what she thought about Sarah Palin. While my boss is a republican she hasn't been nearly as enamored with her as most of our base. She noted concern about Sarah's experience, but said that she is still voting for McCain.

As she was explaining her perspective it dawned on her to ask why he (the Obama internal pollster) was interested in her view of Palin. He replied that Obama's campaign is extremely nervous about the energized republican base and what he called the "unkown factor" regarding Palin's draw as a candidate.

In the polls they're conducting around the country, and my boss wasn't able to relay specific numbers, the Obama campaign is very, very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don't typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.

More than that, they don't know how to guage and predict the support of people typically turned off by politics, but that are enamored with her "up from the bootstraps" appeal.

I say all of this because this pollster conveyed strong concern about their standing going into the homestretch. They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class and whole swaths of the electorate they consider the "unkowns." In fact, and based on her conversation with this internal pollster for Obama, he's not ahead in the polls as we're being told. He's at best tied.

Look, take it for what it is. But what I know is that we're being sold a bill of goods by the media. Why? Not to be conspiratorial, but they likely just want to dispirit us, precisely because Obama has yet to seal the deal. He should be way ahead this season, but he's not.

I'll close by saying that we have several weeks left. The Obama camp internally knows they haven't wrapped this thing up. Let's keep on fighting (and even if we have to drag McCain over the finish line - as Rush fondly exhorts us to do - let's do it) and let's win this thing!

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boomshak:

Dow +400 - go McCain!

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PortlandRocks:

Boom**** thanks for the "story" from redstate.com Too bad the big pollsters didn't have the insight of these "internal" pollsters!:) LOL

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1503er:

I think that 'conversation' between the coworker and the internal pollster never happened. It's one of those anecdotal stories. Both campaigns use them.

But having said that, I think the Joe Plumbers of America are going to become important in this race. Why? Because if you look at the Joe Plumber from the debate, he's a white middle-class man who had registered to vote in 1992 but never voted until this 2008 primary. And Joe Plumber from the debate admitted that he likes Sarah Palin. Ergo, you'll see a lot of either first time voters or people who haven't voted in a long time go and vote for McCain because of her.

Now, will it be enough to offset all the first time voters on Obama's side? Who knows.

But I also agree that Obama's internal numbers are probably showing this race closer than it appears in the polls. The pollsters seem to be assuming a huge Democratic advantage. I would think the Obama campaign doesn't assume such malarky.

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katocat:

@alankeyesisawesome:
@katocat

"Why are you attacking Joe...obviously your life is not perfect either. I love how democrats see it fit to judge every aspect of their lives...they need to focus on their own."

Oh, I'm sorry... is "Joe" off limits now?

McCain said he was rich... Joe said he wanted to buy a business...

Amazing with all that money, he can't afford to pay his taxes or get a license isn't it?


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fed:

Another ND poll
O 44
MC 41

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PortlandRocks:

From Ras:

Obama Trusted More than McCain on Seven of 10 Electoral Issues

WOW!

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alankeyesisawesome:

@mrut

Well, God's judgement may be his own, but we know that he does not condone murder...it is one of the 10 commandments.

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boomshak:

REGARDING INTERNAL POLLING:

We keep asking ourselves, why is McCain campaigning in these places we think he cannot win, like ME, NH, PA, etc?

Maybe, just maybe their internal polls are telling us those states are closer than the public polls are saying?

Sarah Palin is getting crowds of over 40,000 in these places.

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1503er:

Between the FBI investigating ACORN and McCain's solid message of now is not the time to raise taxes and increase spending... Obama is gonna be battling like a madman to win the election. My hunch is Obama peaked too early.

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KipTin:

zotz... You addressed the following to me--
"You should speak more respectfully about the next president of the United States. I question your patriotism. You might concider moving to Russia if you don't like it here."

First... work on your spelling (concider).

Second... What the heck? I did not say anything that would make anyone question my patriotism. And what is this telling me to move to Russia? FYI-- My ancestors were here in the Americas long before yours... and Obama's.

Third... Are you truly as ignorant as you sound?

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boomshak:

Is it possible that after the millions and millions spent on this race, that the whole thing could be decided by a single comment made to a plumber and recorded on a camera phone?

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PortlandRocks:

Fed where did you find that ND poll? VERY interesting!:)

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1503er:

Spread the wealth comment will doom Obama.

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Trosen:

Right.. Obama is shaking in his boots and doesn't believe the #s.. that's why he's moving resources into NC, WV, MO, ND, KY, and GA. (states he doesn't even need). If Sarah Palin is your last hope.. good luck. You'll need it.

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KipTin:

Interestingly, Donna Brazile who ran Gore's campaign stated this week that Gore peaked too early... and also overspent too soon.

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1503er:

There's gonna be a lot of people absolutely beside themselves when the results come in on election day.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@katocat

Joe is off limits, just like Palin's family is. If you're going to attack McCain, attack McCain himself...just be sure to say it to his face rather than on some anonymous forum.

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PortlandRocks:

KipTin intelligence is certainly NOT voting for a party that racked up the largest deficit in human history and still attempts to call itself the CONSERVATIVE party.

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1503er:

Donna Brazile is right. She's covertly saying that Obama has peaked too early too. He has. Plain and simple. The polls are showing that now. The state polls will catch up by next week, the nationals will be even tighter next week, then the final week of the campaign the states will have caught up to next week's tightened national polls.

Obama ends up losing. By 10 or so EV.

History will show:
1) Obama peaked too early
2) His comment about spreading the wealth was his Osama bin Laden video
3) The pollsters over estimated Democratic enthusiasm and advantage
4) Nov. 5th the stock market climbs a whooping 2,500 points in response to a McCain victory.

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fed:

TPM posted the ND poll

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MichaelJason:

I normally read this every day and don't post, but today I think I will. This Boomshak character is looking mighty desperate, grasping at every last straw to make himself feel better at the state of the race. You are going to be sorely disappointed the night of November 4th when McCain is routed by Obama.

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Keep VA Red:

@katocat:

Joe may be complete idiot, but you miss the point. Small business people and middle classers are starting to wake up to real implications of an Obama presidency. You guys and your candidate act like 250K is so much money, but it simply isn't. That is especially true if you live in a high cost area. Where I live in the DC suburbs, it costs over 500,000 just to buy an average 3-2 home. Throw in property taxes and insurance and that's near $40k a year just to buy the house. Then you throw in another $12k in utilities. Then you consider, there are people like my wife and I who have three children and have made the choice for her to stay home so that our kids are raised properly. We want to invest for retirement and their college. I make just shy of $100K a year and it is tough here on that money. $250K would barely be comfortable (i.e., putting enough away for retirement and college and actually being able to buy a new car... something I haven't done in over 10 years). My kids right now are going to have to go into significant student loan debt to pay for college. Every penny that B.O. takes from me in taxes is a penny I can't invest for them. I know he promises a tax cut for the middle class. I used the stupid little web-based calculator for my income and it is like $75 a year! Woo Hoo! A whole $6.25 a month. I'll be rolling in the dough then. That's assuming he doesn't pull the Clinton-manuever on us and promise tax cuts only to raise them immediately. Has he asked Pelosi and Reid if their on board with his tax cut plan? Of course, my $6.25 a month windfall is safe only if his tax plan doesn't drive my employer out of business. You're also crazy to think that his raising corporate tax rates won't cost you money. Corporations have to make a profit. The more the government takes, the more they will have to either cut jobs, cut benefits or raise prices. Without profits, they go out of business.

What economic plan does he offer that will actually be good for the economy. He says he wants to raise taxes for fairness. Even he has enough good sense not to say it makes good economic sense!

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marctx:

I'm surprised all the attention Joe the plumber is getting. Bull**** or not, I think it really explains in way that even Joe Biden can understand the point that if Obama raises taxes on small businesses it will hurt regular people. Do you want your job or the $500 check Obama wants to send you when he "spreads the wealth around".

_________________

"spread the wealth around". What a "fundamentals" type comment.

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KipTin:

Good grief... Obamanation continues to obsess about Joe. They want to destroy him like they tried to destroy Sarah Palin. Is it because Joe is Republican and does not like Obama's tax plan? What is wrong with hoping/planning to own a business one day and make over $250K/year? Is not that supposed to be the American Dream?

What kind of nuts are you? ACORNS? (I was waiting to use that one.)

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Oldy75:

Why destroy Joe? Because we in the MsM can, we actually have a button we created last night in the headquarters building just in case we needed to destroy Joe. It is much more efficent than the old way of calling each branch individually. Just push one button and the destroy order goes to everyone on the vast left wing conspiracy.

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Trosen:

It's the usual stuff here.. a couple of close polls and the trolls come out and play. After a couple of days when the polls get wider again, they'll crawl back under their rocks.

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jonny87:

@1503er

1)spread the wealth comment will haunt him
2)i dont why he insists hes still going to raise taxes in a recession...why not just say he will put them off untill the economys in a position of strength once more.

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1503er:

Obama is not going to rout McCain. The Joe Plumbers of America have a hard on for Sarah Palin and they're going to vote in this election, whereas they haven't in past elections. They are this year's evangelic voter and soccer mom rolled into one.

McCain by ~15 EV.

This is how it ends

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard?name=|content=111101000112101011100000111110000111100011111010101

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maddiekat:

1503er

Are you boobshaks brother?

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PortlandRocks:

Keep VA Red and what were the implications of a BUSH presidency with the EXACT same tax policy? Waiting....

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alankeyesisawesome:

@KipTin

Democrats will stoop to anything...they are in a desperate situation and obviously grabbing at straws. Joe's desire for the american dream is being attacked because Obama hates the American dream.

BTW, hilarious joke about ACORN...ROTFLMFAO!!!!

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MichaelJason:

Do you conservatives (KipTin, MarcTX, Boomshak) not do your homework? Obama has plans to provide tax breaks for small business, and even more tax breaks for businesses who hire people and provide health insurance to them. 94% of small businesses NET under $250K a year.

Again, I repeat. You guys are going to be sorely disappointed the night of November 4th when Obama completely routs McCain in the Electoral College.

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orange24:

@boom:
Don't really buy the Palin rhetoric, but it's a good theory. Her unfavorables have sky-rocketed since the convention - most especially among women. She does energize the republican base, though. However, like you repeatedly point out regarding the Gallup poll, Republicans are far more likely to vote than Democrats anyway. She's campaigning for 2012.

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mysticlaker:

Where boom? Site me one source that gives SP 40,000 people....in ME, NH, PA.

12,000 in VA earlier this week...Yes. Come on, give me source and evidence....

There is no "peaking" too soon. You go with the flow and adjust with the situation. Maybe McCain peaked about two months too soon in early Sept? Your argument is dumb.

McCain has to win VA, MO, FL, OH, IN, NV, CO. Do you think he will do that?

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jonny87:

@ MichaelJason, Trosen:

im an obama supporter but lets get real here...

the two most respectable pollsters Gallup and Rasmussen have obamas support halving in about a week...gallup +11 to +6, ras +8 to +4. this is not random noise.

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Vokoban:

Well, the numbers of trolls here on this site look like a concerted action. Reminds me of the German press back in April 1945, when the Wunderwaffe was expected every day.

And now this Wunderwaffe is a mid-thirty non-plumber owing this nation his taxes - and dreaming of buying himself 250.000+ income.

But kudos to alankey: he should try to get Colbert's show. Every second sentence offers a twist Mr. Colbert wouldn't even dream of.

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PortlandRocks:

Damn! NOT ONE conservative here can tell me HOW the Republican tax policy has worked for our economy overall the past 8 years! I LOVE IT!

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MNLatteLiberal:

@Keep_Va_red, I am touched by your touching story that so deeply touched me. Please post your address so that I can send you money.

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Keep VA Red:

Portland, best I recall Bush never raised taxes.

I'm getting by under the Bush economic policies. And Obama's certainly aren't going to make it better.

It was failure of Pelosi, Frank, Reid, Dodd and Obama to regulate Fannie and Freddie that caused this current crisis. Couple that with the fact that the last dem that promised a tax cut didn't keep his word and then tell me why I would vote for this one.

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katocat:

alankeyesisawesome:
@katocat

"Joe is off limits, just like Palin's family is. If you're going to attack McCain, attack McCain himself...just be sure to say it to his face rather than on some anonymous forum."


Sorry, but "Joe" isn't off limits.

McCain made him an issue last night, but like most things McCain does lately, he was sloppy and didn't do his research first.

If the man has so much money, why isn't he paying his taxes? It's a simple question... surely you don't support tax evasion do you? Is it patriotic to NOT pay your taxes now with Republicans?

Oh please, I would love to say it to McCains face... too bad he doesn't let anyone other than his supporters into his campaign rallies.

Very much the same way Bush runs his.


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Keep VA Red:

MN... I don't want your money. I just don't want the government in my way!

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1503er:

Call whomever you want a troll but you can't deny that Obama's lead has been cut in half in the daily tracking polls. There's nothing to indicate that it will stop.

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PortlandRocks:

jonny87: WRONG! It is noise. Those outliers were inflated. This race is somewhere around +6 Obama, which on Nov. 4th is an electoral LANDSLIDE. Ramsussen NOR Gallop are the #1 rated pollster. Rasmussen is in the top 5 but gallop isn't. +4 on election day is 300 electoral votes min. and his voter ID is VERY conservative.

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johncoz:

@boomshak, et al

Why is it that on a polling site, people are so pig-ignorant about how to read polls. I'll try once more: Obama's support in the tracker average for the past 8 days is as follows

50.0 50.2 50.9 50.5 50.4 50.6 50.5 50.3

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Trosen:

jonny.. yes the polls have moved, and that doesn't surprise me. I thought the +11s and 12s were a little out of whack last week. Expect the margins to increase for Obama over the next few days again. But probably not to double digits.

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MNLatteLiberal:

boom, so are we or are we not in the tank for McCain today? all i hear is that the Dow is up from you and that Joe the plumber may not be actually a plumber or even pay taxes. but none of that addresses my 3-day-old question, how are we feeling about McCain? TIA

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Keep VA Red:

Portland,

Why don't you try and explain how Obama's tax policies are going to be good for the economy. Your candidate can't.

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1503er:

PortlandRocks you sound just like boomshak only on the left.

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orange24:

Damn! NOT ONE conservative here can tell me HOW the Republican tax policy has worked for our economy overall the past 8 years! I LOVE IT!

Yeah, they don't like to talk about that pesky elecotral college either. I've asked many, many times for one scenario where McCain wins the electoral college. That request is always ignored.

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PortlandRocks:

Keep VA Red how did Clinton's tax increas hurt the country? Shall we compare the two 8 year periods?

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MichaelJason:

Jonny, you make the same mistake others keep making. The National polls are not reflective of the Electoral College, and notice I said it will be an Electoral rout, now a National rout. With that said, Obama could win the National Popular vote by 4% and still rout McCain in the battlegrounds.

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katocat:

@Keep VA red

No, Bush didn't raise taxes... He just put this country into it's deepest debt ever.

Get a grip.

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PortlandRocks:

Aww thanks 1503er.

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jonny87:

@PortlandRocks

you cant deny a pretty strong trend though???

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Vokoban:

@ Johncoz

With god on his side McCain will easily beat Obamas 50 %!

God HATES math. Math will roast in hell! Math is babykilling!

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maddiekat:

jonny87

In the 2004 Presidential election Gallup was off by 2.5%, The Battleground Poll was off by 0.9% and CBS, I repeat CBS was off by 0.5%. So please tell me who respects Gallup please. Oh thats right boobshak the last couple of days anyway.

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Keep VA Red:

our economy was rocking along fine until the mortgage meltdown, which McCain tried to stop and your guys blocked! The current economic crises has nothing to do with tax policy. If you actually understood what was going on you would realize they are two distinctly different things!

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katocat:

@ Keep VA Red

No Bush didn't "raise" taxes... he just put the country into it's deeepest debt ever. China is very happy with Bush I am sure.

Meanwhile I hope you enjoy your "low taxes" while the price of eductaion, health care, gasoline, and most everything else is skyrocketing with the debt.

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jonny87:

@MichaelJason

so your saying obamas lead nationally can half, but his lead in the battleground states will be maintained???

____________________

boomshak:

THE ECONOMY WAS GREAT IN 2006.

It went to sh*t since the Democrats took over. There is no denying this. Look at the economic numbers in 10/06.

Cause and effect.

____________________

johncoz:

@jonny87

Halved! Obama's support has done nothing of the sort. Look at Gallup's graph:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

What stands out is the remarkable stability to date of Obama's support.

____________________

RussTC3:

OGLiberal Said:

New Ras in Ohio (sneak peek):
O - 49 (nc)
M - 47 (+2)

I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers, but the last poll of Ohio from Rasmussen (alone) had it McCain 47, Obama 46. The last Fox News/Rasmussen poll was Obama 49, McCain 47.

So if your sneak peek is correct, based upon Rasmussen's last poll (9/23), Obama is up 3 points and McCain is down 2. Based on the most recent Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll (10/12), both Obama and McCain are unchanged.

____________________

zotz:

Kiptin-
"My ancestors were here in the Americas long before yours... and Obama's."

I didn't know you were an expert on my ancestors! LOL!!

____________________

sunnymi:

"It went to sh*t since the Democrats took over. "

Can you name one thing that Dems did in the last 2 years that caused this crisis?

____________________

MichaelJason:

Yes Johnny. Look at the battlegrounds. Obama has surpassed the 50% mark in PA, VA, OH, FL, MO, CO, NM, and IA. If Obama has an 8 pt National lead, and McCain closes in Nationally and in those states (undecideds), he still loses by a couple points.

____________________

VivalaRevolucion:

The End of Obama !!! So close to win and then Boom! Vertiginous fall !! Oh no , wait, it is just noise!! yep -- The noise of crashing so fast to the groud !!!

____________________

Trosen:

jonny.. show me state polls that show otherwise. Anyway, this is nothing new here. They had the same "parties" on these boards after the 1st 2 debates, and especially the Palin debate. We know how that went. I don't expect this to be much different. If it is, and these leads continue to shrink for Obama over the weekend (in national AND state polls), then I'll say maybe there's something to it.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

ok low info voters. Let's look at FACTS today vs 2004 and 2000. We won't even COUNT party ID or voter excitement.

Ohio (20) 48.9 45.5 Obama +3.4 Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5

Nevada (5) 49.2 46.2 Obama +3.0 Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5

North Carolina (15) 47.9 46.7 Obama +1.2 Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8

Missouri (11) 48.8 47.0 Obama +1.8 Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3

Florida (27) 49.8 45.0 Obama +4.8 Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1

Colorado (9) 50.4 44.6 Obama +5.8 Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4

Virginia (13) 51.6 43.0 Obama +8.6 Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1

New Mexico (5) 50.7 42.3 Obama +8.4 Bush +0.7 Gore +0

ANY QUESTIONS? 19 days.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

sunnymi ... they blocked the regulation of Fannie and Freddie!

____________________

jonny87:

maddiekat,

what im concerned about is the trend

____________________

Vokoban:

"THE ECONOMY WAS GREAT IN 2006."

BS. It's easy to have great economic numbers while ignoring the wealth is borrowed from China. The US economy is a sick man since at least six years. And the better of your economists knew it - and told you so. Read old Krugman op-eds. For instance those he wrote during the Kerry campaign.

He really could say: I told you so.

____________________

boomshak:

@maddiekat:

In the 2004 Presidential election Gallup was off by 2.5%, The Battleground Poll was off by 0.9% and CBS, I repeat CBS was off by 0.5%. So please tell me who respects Gallup please. Oh thats right boobshak the last couple of days anyway.

Yes but those are the polling numbers the day of the election. What was CBS polling 3 weeks before the election? I doubt it was so close.

The polls always get close to reality right before the election as they lose their propaganda value.

All the polls were within a few points of being right on election day, but those same polls had up to 10 point differences 3 weeks earlier.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Getting ugly out there.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/16/gop-mailing-depicts-obama_n_135328.html

Fear makes people do funny things.

____________________

MichaelJason:

Jonny, don't be alarmed. The tightening is that you see some Republicans coming home to their base and some Independents waffling. This is typical of EVERY Presidential race.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I'll follow the polling average amongst respected pollsters. Bush went in 2004 up about 2% in the national polling averages. 3% or more for Obama is 300 plus electoral votes. Watch for it!

____________________

johncoz:

@jonny87


Just to be perfectly clear on the Gallup graph, which runs from Sep 26.

The range of values in 48-52%, the MOE is 2%.

____________________

boomshak:

People, remember that respected pollsters were picking Obama to win NH by big double digits and Hillary won by by 4.

Polling ain't what it used to be.

For one thing, most people with Caller ID don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize. This excludes a vast number of people.

____________________

Mike A.:

anyone see the new CNN FL, CO and PA polls ;)

____________________

PortlandRocks:

McCain has to erase leads in ALL 7 of these states to win, including an 7 or 8% deficit in VA, 5 in Colorado, and 5 in FL. Good luck!:) HAHAHAHAHA!

Ohio (20) 48.9 45.5 Obama +3.4 Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5

Nevada (5) 49.2 46.2 Obama +3.0 Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5

North Carolina (15) 47.9 46.7 Obama +1.2 Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8

Missouri (11) 48.8 47.0 Obama +1.8 Bush +7.2 Bush +3.3

Florida (27) 49.8 45.0 Obama +4.8 Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1

Colorado (9) 50.4 44.6 Obama +5.8 Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4

Virginia (13) 51.6 43.0 Obama +8.6 Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1

____________________

jonny87:

im not concerned about the kerry battleground states, but he needs to win more than this.

the ones to watch are CO or VA

CO hasnt moved as much with the nationals so hopefully wont follow the nationals down if that does occur. i get the impression hes got a good lead in VA so even if it moves towards a tie im hopeful he'll stay ahead. i think Fl and OH will follow the nationals closely.

____________________

boomshak:

CNN polls are automatically discounted as being 100% partisan.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

(CNN) — John McCain continues to lose ground in three battleground states, new CNN polls of polls out Thursday suggest.

According to the new surveys, McCain is still slipping in Pennsylvania, Florida, and even Colorado — a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.

In the new Pennsylvania poll of polls, McCain now trails Barack Obama by a 13 point margin, 53-40 percent. That deficit is up from 12 points in a poll of polls released earlier this week.

In Florida, the state that handily voted for President Bush in 2004, McCain trails Obama by 4 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, 49-45 percent. That's up from a 3 point gap there over the weekend.

And in Colorado, a longtime Republican stronghold where McCain has held the advantage for months, the new CNN poll of polls shows Obama on top by 6 percentage points, 50-44 percent. Earlier this week, Obama held a 5-point lead over McCain.

____________________

douglasfactors:

Looks like someone released the flying monkeys.

____________________

KipTin:

Hey... MichaelJason... I am not a "conservative" except for fiscal matters.

FYI: Obama's tax credits are a drop in the bucket and will not offset hiring new employees and buying health insurance...

Obama has proposed a $3,000 tax credit for every new job that companies create in the United States over the next two years, a small business health tax credit on up to 50 percent of employee premiums paid by employers

Both still result in NET major expenses. Maybe Obama's goal instead is to get small businesses to all NET less than $250K.
----------

BTW: Do you know the definition of SMALL BUSINESS?

From the Small Business Administration--

The Small Business Act states that a small business concern is "one that is independently owned and operated and which is not dominant in its field of operation."

The law also states that in determining what constitutes a small business, the definition will vary from industry to industry to reflect industry differences accurately.

SBA's Small Business Size Regulations implement the Small Business Act's mandate to SBA. SBA has also established a table of size standards, matched to North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) industries.

http://www.sba.gov/services/contractingopportunities/sizestandardstopics/tableofsize/
--------

I can tell most of you guys have NO experience in small business because you do not have a clue about taxes. For example, guess who pays the other half of social security taxes for employees? And guess who has to pay the whole cost of self-employment/social security taxes?

____________________

Trosen:

jonny, here's my point:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/16/polls-going-in-wrong-direction-for-mccain/

Call it a "partisan" poll if you want, but I still see no proof that this "gap closing" in the last few days is anything but bright red states getting that much redder.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

KipTin I AM self employed (Small Business) Let's just say last year I made about at least $70,000. Guess how much in taxes I paid based on legal loopholes and write offs? :) TAKE A WILD GUESS!

____________________

Vokoban:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/16/polls-going-in-wrong-direction-for-mccain/

"According to the new surveys, McCain is still slipping in Pennsylvania, Florida, and even Colorado — a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.

In the new Pennsylvania poll of polls, McCain now trails Barack Obama by a 13 point margin, 53-40 percent. That deficit is up from 12 points in a poll of polls released earlier this week.

In Florida, the state that handily voted for President Bush in 2004, McCain trails Obama by 4 points in the latest CNN poll of polls, 49-45 percent. That's up from a 3 point gap there over the weekend.

And in Colorado, a longtime Republican stronghold where McCain has held the advantage for months, the new CNN poll of polls shows Obama on top by 6 percentage points, 50-44 percent. Earlier this week, Obama held a 5-point lead over McCain."

Tightening whereever you look. God listened to Alankey's prayer's. Allahu akhbar!

____________________

maddiekat:

jonny87

Its not a trend. The tracking polls have dropped off 2 huge polling days for Obama in the past several days. No one really thought Obama was 10 points ahead so the race is now calming down with Obama leading by 4-6 points. If he wins by 5 its a frigen landslide.

____________________

KipTin:

So... zotz... you are saying you are Native American?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

This is so funny because I know come Monday this mini McCain bounce will turn the other direction as it has EVERY SINGLE weekend for a month now. Then the trolls will all disappear as they ALWAYS do.

____________________

sunnymi:


@Keep VA Red, you said "sunnymi ... they blocked the regulation of Fannie and Freddie!"

Are you kidding me? You still believe that debunked story about Fannie and Freddie being the ones at the center of this crisis. They were just one of the reasons not the main reason. They were only responsible for about 15% of the sub-prime loans. The rest of the 85% was all given out by Private Sector banks who were de-regulated in 1999 courtesy: Phil Gramm . Read this report for the full details....

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/53802.html

____________________

jonny87:

im from the uk. hows the media covering the debate??? mccain angry obama calm?

____________________

ThisLandIsMyLand:


@alankeyesisawesome
"I'm sure so many women can come up with false indicators for their health that will allow them to have fun aborting their babies at the last minute.

I don't think we should make exception even when the life of the mother is in jeopardy, as we can still perhaps save the baby in these instances."

Wow... if you're for real you are a sicko. Yeah.. we women just have so much fun having abortions! I seriously hope you post your vitriol far and wide because you are a great spokesperson for the dying neoconservative movement in this country and you will work miracles in terms of moving independents away from your cold, selfish and amoral agenda.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Can someone explain to me how a Republican President with a majority Republican House (the party of fiscal conservancy) can increase the National Debt from abt $5 trillion to $10 trillion. And yet they claim that the economy grew. Heck, any govt that puts an extra $5 trillion into an economy over a 7 year period would grow (our yearly GDP was less than $15 trillion.) And yet, with all the trickle down economic theories (yes, it is a theory- not like Darwinian theory which has scientific evidence as proof), we still needed huge infusions of cash from the Federal Govt to sustain the "growth." It sounds like Reaganomics all over again. He also increased our national debt over 2X. Is this what we should expect from McCain?

____________________

boomshak:

Lol, here's the new DRUDGE headline:

GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS

http://www.drudgereport.com/

I love it!

____________________

southern angler:

1503er, keep va red, boomshak all of you guys are great Americans

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Drudge is pullin' straws! As usual. LOL

____________________

southern angler:

kiptin you too

____________________

maddiekat:

boobshak

Drudge is anther Hannity with out the guts to come out from behind his curtain.

____________________

RussTC3:

Those aren't new CNN polls, they are new CNN Poll of Polls.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

southern angler, 1503er, keep va red, boomshak all of you guys are great Americans for blindly supporting a party that racked up the largest debt in world history. Good job!:) SUCCESS!

____________________

RussTC3:

Interesting that only some of the trackers are tightening. Yet at the same time, when Monday rolls around Obama's bounce will actually look larger than it really should be.

____________________

zotz:

I am part native american, choctaw tribe to be exact. Maybe we are related! LOL!!

____________________

Robi:

I love how reps talk like they don't do character attacks and destruction. It's really funny.

If being a plumber means making over 250K a year then screw law school, I'm gonna be a plumber! I love how the few exceptions in this country are portrayed as the whole nation.

Joe the plumber is buying a huge business. He's not just a plumber.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

White Republicans are ALWAYS good Americans. Blindly following complete disaster because THEY LOVE AMERICA!

____________________

southern angler:

AP today says Obama plan would increase national debt over 250 Billion

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@sunnymi

Don't forget everywhere Phil Gramm goes the financial sector collapses. Commodities Futures Modernization act BOOM! Enron (where his wife sat on the board) collapses in the (then) worst bankruptcy in American history.

Gramm-Leach-Billey Act gets signed into laws within a few years you hear someone firing up the wood chipper at Leahman Brothers for the now biggest bankruptcy in American history. You would think that people would pay attention to the details like that but they don't.

But don't worry Sarah Palin and the Republicans are happy that God is coming soon with the ultimate bail (AKA the Rapture).

Fantastic, just fantastic another Republican big government scheme passed down to the people through fear and loathing...

____________________

southern angler:

I hope at least some of the Obama followers will remember Jimmy Carter. You dont know bad until you know Jimmy Carter

____________________

boomshak:

@RussTC3:

Obama will get no bounce from this debate. Obama may have won on charm, but Mccain won on issues, even AP says so.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

southern angler is that all? That's a huge improvement over Bush! And he might actually spend the $ on AMERICANS! Can you imagine?

____________________

boomshak:

This Joe The Plumber this really is amazing.

____________________

southern angler:

I think we all own George Bush and John McCain a great big thank you for dropping oil prices to $70 a barrel.

____________________

muckinello:

Let the righties rant and let's get out our vote. Early voting is breaking records, make sure we all vote on Nov. 4 (or earlier if allowed).
Polls tell 1/2 of the story. The rest will be written on Nov.4.
Close polls will make sure that the mass of Obama supporters will not stay home.

____________________

Basil:

McCain's out of ammo and he knows it. Ayers? Acorn? Partial-birth abortion? Pathetic.

For all his lack of experience, Obama knows how to get good advice, and his masterful handling of Hillary and McCain shows it. Obama is calm, confident, and an inspiring leader.

For all of McCain's experience, he surrounds himself with incompetents, thus undercutting any confidence the public might have had in him. McCain is jumpy, erratic, angry and uninspiring. Mavericks are strays, not leaders.

I wouldn't be surprised if polls tighten some. I mean, how ignorant do you have to be to be undecided at this late date? McCain appeals to ignorance and hate, because it's all that's left (and ignorant, hateful people are Sarah Palin's base).

If McCain's "not questioning Obama's patriotism," what IS he doing? Lying, eye-rolling, tongue-jutting and twitching his way to oblivion

____________________

southern angler:

I wanna get drunk with Joe

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Joe the Plumber is amazing since he makes no where near 250,000, doesn't pay his taxes, and doesn't even have a plumbing license! ROFL God they vetted him like PALIN! IDIOTS!

____________________

sunnymi:


Rasmussen State Polling (10/16)

New York
Obama +20

Connecticut
Obama +17

____________________

southern angler:

Basil are you looking into a mirror, because you are talking real ugly. I hope you don't eat with that mouth.

____________________

sunnymi:

Rasmussen State Polling (10/16)

Oregon
Obama +13

____________________

PortlandRocks:

And with the Republican economy ya see guys, Joe can't AFFORD to even pay his taxes on his $40,000 income, WHY HE NEEDS OBAMA's tax cut!

____________________

sunnymi:


Rasmussen State Polling (10/16)

Ohio
Tied at 49 each

____________________

PortlandRocks:

hehe per Rasmussen: "Shifting Perceptions of Barack Obama Means Bad News for John McCain - October 16, 2008"

____________________

maddiekat:

CNU Virginia Poll

Obama 53
Mcliar 47

____________________

jonny87:

'Currently, McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of Ohio voters, Obama favorably by 54%'

not good

____________________

Ryguy:

notice anything interesting about the tightening of the race? obama is not losing ground, mccain is just tightening things. the significance of this is that obama is hanging around 50%... thats a great sign for him... once again... that is a GREAT sign for him.

so please... everybody... calm down just a tad.

____________________

Rames1980:

Hey guys, what happens in tracking polls over a few days is not a "trend". Have a look at the National trend graph on this site (which BTW is an excellent way to visualize what the national polls are saying as a group) and tell me if you can see any other trend there than a strong move away from McCain toward Obama over the past few weeks. According to the snap polls made of the last debate, Obama managed to improve his standing whereas McCain doesn't even have a message. There is no basis to expect a trend toward McCain.


____________________

joethedummer:

check me out folks!


Turns out that “Joe the Plumber,” as he became nationally known when Senator John McCain made him a theme at Wednesday night’s third and final presidential debate, may run a plumbing business but he is not a licensed plumber. His full name is Samuel J. Wurzelbacher. And he owes a bit in back taxes.
...
An official at Local 50 of the plumber’s union, based in Toledo, said Mr. Wurzelbacher does not hold a license. He also has never served an apprenticeship and does not belong to the union.
...
“All contractors are licensed, and he does not have a license, either as a contractor or a plumber,” the union official said, citing a search of government records. “I can’t find that he’s ever even applied for any kind of apprenticeship, and he has never belonged to local 189 in Columbus, which is what he claims on his Facebook page.”

According to public records, Mr. Wurzelbacher has been subject to two liens, each over $1,000, one of which — a personal tax lien — is still outstanding.
...
Mr. Wurzelbacher is registered to vote in Lucas County under the name Samuel Joseph Worzelbacher.

“We have his named spelled W-O, instead of W-U,” Linda Howe, executive director of the Lucas County Board of Elections, said in a telephone interview. “Handwriting is sometimes hard to read. He has never corrected it in his registration card.”

The records, she said, showed he voted Republican in the March primary.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

This is why I'm smiling today with these small dips. Dems don't NEED Ohio. We are up BIG in Colorado, FL, and VA. Ohio would be GREAT but it's not the ONLY way in. Republicans have to literally turn the table on EVERY single BG state. Won't happen and it's wonderful.

____________________

zotz:

So apparently Joe does not make anything near 250k per year but likes to pretend he does so people will think of him as successful.
Hmmmm...

Yes, that sounds like the typical McCain voter.

____________________

atreides:

Not sure the guys at intrade got the "internal polling" memo that Boomshak speaks of. They are showing Nate Silver like probabilities of an Obama victory. After viewing some of the Palin crowds, how could they underestimate their enthusiasm but not also see that Independents want no part of that stereotype. Imagine having to vote for a candidate supported by the notorious "Obama is Arab" women. If you ask me, she has become McCain's Rev Wright. If CO,NM, and VA stay blue then its game over. And who said Palin's attracting 40,000. You have to apply the "Palin Crowd Size Conversion Factor (PCSCF). The factor is usually 2 to 3 depending on crowd size. This sounds like a "3".

____________________

DecaturMark:

I think that Joe the Plumber's worries about Obama's tax policies derive from his own misunderstanding of gross revenues and net profits. A two person plumbing operation (as was mentioned by Joe as the outfit he works for) would be very hard pressed to generate a $250,000 income for the owner. Perhaps subcontractors enter into it. Still, Obama's tax policies increase the taxes for those making $250,000 or more, not companies that generate those type of revenues. A big difference.

____________________

maddiekat:

jonny87

I saw that you said you were a Obama supporter several post ago. All I have to say is I smell a troll!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Typical Republican:) I got mine who gives a **** about the health of our nation.

____________________

jonny87:

10/12 'He also leads 53% to 43% among women'

10/14 'He also leads by five among women'

movement?

____________________

fed:

Ras OH 49 obama
47 McCain

____________________

1503er:

I don't blindly support the Republican party. I'm a registered Decline to State and I have supported liberal candidates all my life. I voted for Clinton, Nader, and Kerry (I lived in MN when Kerry was running and it was a state that mattered. So I didn't want to waste my vote on a third party candidate in that state). This year I'm voting for a liberal third party candidate as I live in CA and I can use my vote for that. I'm voting for every Democrat this is on down ticket races (Congress, state legislature, etc) and I'm voting AGAINST Prop. 8. I don't want to be from the only state in the country that writes bigotry into it's Constitution.

So, no, please don't lump me in with Republican supporters.

I just have an opinion about this sorry excuse for a presidential campaign. It just happens to counter what your opinion is. Don't make me some boogey man because of it.

____________________

southern angler:

Obama just dropped in Ohio....here we go boys, watch out for Obama's falling numbers

____________________

1503er:

Anyone else think these Gallup polls are ****ing ridiculous?

They put out three sets of numbers for the same poll release? Hell, I could do that. Here I'll do it.

Obama 53 McCain 39
Obama 46 McCain 44
Obama 49 McCain 42

See?

That way I can cover my but. This is like going to the carnival and paying some clown to guess your age with in 7 years back and front.

____________________

mysticlaker:

Read Southern Angler. Read.

McCain’s support in Ohio has ticked up two points in this latest poll, but the long-term trend has been in Obama’s direction. This is the 10th straight poll in the state dating back to mid-August in which support for Obama has either increased or remained stable. It’s the second straight poll in which Obama has enjoyed support from 49%, his highest total of the year.

McCain’s high-water mark in Ohio came in early September when he enjoyed a 51% to 44% advantage over Obama. However, he has failed to reach the 50% level of support in five consecutive polls conducted since late September.

The broad trends in Ohio are consistent with national polling trends. In mid-September, just before the financial meltdown became visible, John McCain had a very slight lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, for the past three weeks, Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage every single day. Obama has also built a significant advantage in the Electoral College.

____________________

Steve_OH:

@Keep VA Red:

"I used the stupid little web-based calculator for my income and it is like $75 a year!"

Out of curiosity, what were the numbers that you used? My wife and I file jointly, have a combined income of about $170,000, have no kids or other child care expenses, and itemize. Pretty much everything is going against us as far as getting a tax cut is concerned, yet when I use the calculator, it still tells me that we get $500.

So what values did you use to come up with $75?

____________________

PortlandRocks:

southern angler sorry for you a tie in OH doesn't favor McCain. In addition, you also need VA, CO, NC, FL, MO, and a few others:) Feeling stressed? 19 days!

____________________

zotz:

southern angler-
You mean because of a make believe plumber making an imaginary income. The more we learn about this guy the WORSE it looks for McCain.

____________________

sunnymi:

From Rasmussen:
---------------
McCain’s support in Ohio has ticked up two points in this latest poll, but the long-term trend has been in Obama’s direction. This is the 10th straight poll in the state dating back to mid-August in which support for Obama has either increased or remained stable. It’s the second straight poll in which Obama has enjoyed support from 49%, his highest total of the year.

____________________

DecaturMark:

Hey VARed

How much do you save with McCain's plan?

____________________

political_junki:

Second poll with Obama lead in North By-God Dakota :)
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/16/142014/02/937/632664

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@southern angler:

You're undoubtedly an illiterate as far as polls are concerned

4 days ago:
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12 - 10/12 1000 LV 49 47 Obama +2

Today
Rasmussen 10/14 - 10/14 700 LV 49 49 Tie

Conclusion: Obama's support is steady at 49 whereas McCain gains +2, it's not an Obama's drop it is an McCain's gain as per Rasmussen

____________________

zotz:

1503er-
I think Gallup is saying that they don't know what the spread is. Amazing admission!

____________________

Vokoban:

I'm sure people in Ohio can relate to a skinheaded non-plumber not paying his tax claiming he doesn't need Obama's tax break.

A real role model.

Guys, get real. Even IF Ohio stays red there are to may fronts for McCain to hold with very little money.

It's nice for the trolls to have their - well - field day (and I do NOT mean 1503). But the so-called tightening in the national polls just tell one story: the deeply red states are inhabited by even less IQ than was suspected before. McCain 65% all the way. The repubs could have a broomstick on the ticket there: it would get elected.

Probably their idea of small government...

____________________

jonny87:

maddiekat,

trust me im an obama supporter and ill be very pissed off if he doesnt win, because he should. but i reckon there is some tightening and i cant help thinking wright may come up. also im not so sure about the polls in some states which makes me concerned about polls in general. why on earth are both mccain and obama fighting for PA when obamas 13 clear and not focusing on Fl, CO or VA to seal the deal??? why was he in NH today if hes 10 clear?
please someone explain

____________________

southern angler:

Ya'll just sit back and watch.

____________________

boomshak:

SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT:

If Timothy McVeigh had gotten off on a technicality, would it have been ok for Barack to attend parties at his house, sit on two boards with him and write the foreward for his book?

Yes or no?

____________________

southern angler:

Philadelpia news radio is talking about Joe and how he is really helping McCain. They went on to say that Gallup is within 2 points. I just heard this 1 minute ago.

____________________

Vokoban:

>SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT:

If Timothy McVeigh had gotten off on a technicality, would it have been ok for Barack to attend parties at his house, sit on two boards with him and write the foreward for his book?

boomshak, you're simply obscene. McVeigh bombed a kindergarten!

Ayers has been called to that board - like Obama - by the Annenbergs. Anything to offend the Annenberg's?

Shut up if this is all you have to say.

____________________

southern angler:

Boomshak sorry you are wrong. Obama is only interested in going to parties with guys that bomb the Pentagon.

____________________

RussTC3:

Latest Rasmussen Reports polls:

Connecticut, 10/14 (9/16)
Obama 56 (53)
McCain 39 (41)
+3 Obama, -2 McCain = 5 point Obama Swing

New York, 10/14 (9/15)
Obama 57 (55)
McCain 37 (42)
+2 Obama, -5 McCain = 7 point Obama Swing

Ohio, 10/14 (9/23)
McCain 49 (47)
Obama 49 (46)
+3 Obama, -2 McCain = 5 point Obama Swing

Oregon, 10/14 (10/9)
Obama 54 (54)
McCain 41 (43)
n/c Obama, -2 McCain = 2 point Obama Swing

____________________

DecaturMark:

Can I play Boom this time?

Suppose McCain is running for president and needs someone to lead his transition team. What if he chose some one that lobbied for Saddam Hussein?

Should we vote for a president like that?

____________________

Basil:

Angler,
Check the mercury content of those fish you're catching. Palin's a self-described pitbull with lipstick, and she's doing nothing to dispel that notion. If McCain thinks it but won't say it, he has Palin say it to crowds of low-info red-staters who yell "traitor" and "kill him". What's next? "Kill, baby, kill?"

Your idea of Americanism makes you seem like a Banana Republican. Please feel free to go get drunk with Joe "The Plumber" if that's what floats your leaky ideological boat.

____________________

Steve_OH:

@boomshak:

"If Timothy McVeigh had gotten off on a technicality, would it have been ok for Barack to attend parties at his house, sit on two boards with him and write the foreward for his book?"

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

____________________

sunnymi:


@boomshak

SOMETHING FOR YOU TO THINK ABOUT:

Is it OK for McCain to be friends with Gordon Liddy, the convicted Watergate Burglar?

____________________

jonny87:

@boomshak

Mcviegh targeted civilians, this was not Ayers objective...an important distinction.

____________________

sunnymi:


"McCain map strategy prompts head-scratching"

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14645.html

____________________

boomshak:

@Vokoban:

So you are saying then that there are good terrorists and bad terrorists?

Some are acceptable and some are not?

____________________

southern angler:
____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

You are comparing a terrorist bomber to a thief?

Wow, just wow.

____________________

boomshak:

So you moonbats are telling me that blowing up buildings is ok just so no one gets hurt?

____________________

TheLioness:

While I can say I enjoy the few intelligent posts from republicans whose ideology I might disagree with, but whose ability to read something more than vicious email rumors or watch Fox news makes their comments worthy of attention and respect, I find myself alternately amused and appalled by the shrillness of the more conservative (ignorant?)voices on these blogs. You're all starting to sound like John McCain himself. Snapping and yapping and snarling and yelping at anything that moves, never realizing it's your own tails you keep chasing. Calm down (or get yourselves an 8-year scrip for Prozac.) If it's liberals you're worried about, try to remember we're the ones who believe in helping our neighbors, lending a hand when you need one, reaching out to the disenfranchised in order to have them join in the reindeer games. Liberals believe in everyone's rights, remember? Yes kiddies, that means conservatives who know little and say too much. It's the patriotic thing to do: tolerate and try to inform the ignorant, the fanatics, the racists and the just plain mean equally.

____________________

southern angler:

Yes Boom you have to choose you terrorist friends carefully, because you may want to run for president someday

____________________

IndependentThinker:

@southern angler:

Here's the list of tracking polls taken today

Rasmussen Tracking 10/13 - 10/15 3000 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking 10/13 - 10/15 1208 LV 49 44 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/13 - 10/15 817 LV 49 41 Obama +8
Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/13 - 10/15 2143 LV 49 47 Obama +2
Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* 10/13 - 10/15 2312 LV 51 45 Obama +6
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/09 - 10/15 800 LV 50 44 Obama +6

The average is > +5
And your guys pick the one that corroborates their talking point, are those guys palling around with Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh ?

____________________

boomshak:

@DecaturMark:

Was lobbying for Saddam Hussein illegal in some way I am not aware of?

____________________

Vokoban:

"@Vokoban:
So you are saying then that there are good terrorists and bad terrorists?
Some are acceptable and some are not?"

No, I just say that some deeds can be forgiven - and some not. Ayers attacked the US government, not innocent and defenseless children. If that doesn't make a difference for you - then this says more about you than about me.

Obviously Ayers did enough good in his later years to become Chicago's citizen of the year in 1997 and be a respected professor for education who has been invited to bi-partisan boards by a republican philantrop.

On this board were a lot of people from all parties, dems and repubs. So why don't you attack all of them?

You're a bigot. That's an objective observation. In an post a couple of days ago you called Obama a stalinist.

That makes you an asshole in every thinking human being.

Objectively.

____________________

southern angler:

lioness sorry I was to bored to finish read your whatever

____________________

PortlandRocks:

WOW 2nd poll showing a lead in ND! No wonder President Obama is putting resources again there!

____________________

RussTC3:

Polls, not users. That's what we should be discussing.

____________________

mahlers5th:

@OG Liberal

Actually, Rasmessen has them tied at 49% in Ohio

____________________

southern angler:

lioness sorry all I heard from you was blah blah blah I could'nt even finish reading it.

____________________

boomshak:

@Vokoban:

You're a bigot.

A bigot? Because I don't approve of associating with terrorists? If not for a technicality, Ayers would be in prison right now.

So I guess anyone that doesn't join in the group BJ for Obama is a bigot?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@southern angler

"lioness sorry I was to bored to finish read your whatever"

you're a prick...with terrible grammar.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I wonder when Bush will explain his relationship spanning several years with the Bin Ladens. Hmmm I wonder why we haven't caught him? Why does Bush PAL around with terrorist families? REAL terrorists!?

____________________

metsmets:

@Boomshak
@Southern Angler
@Alankeyesisawesome

YOU'D VOTE FOR A DECORATED VETERAN, RIGHT??
YOU'D VOTE FOR SOMEONE WHO FOUGHT FOR HIS COUNTRY! RIGHT??

Timothy McVeigh was a decorated veteran of the United States Army, having served in the Gulf War, where he was awarded a Bronze Star.

Wikipedia

He then turned into a right-wing nut that believed so much in Libertarian causes that he believed blowing up an Federal Building in Oklahoma City was a proper response to the WACO fiasco.

There is no way he would associate with a liberal elistist like Obama. Or vice versa.

HE COMES FROM YOUR SIDE!!!

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "Was lobbying for Saddam Hussein illegal in some way I am not aware of?"

Oh! so now you bring up legality....I guess the same does not apply to Ayers who was also never prosecuted!!!!

Come to think of it Ayers is not on Obama's campaign team but the lobbyist for Saddam is heading McCain's transition team.

Remember Saddam is the ultimate terror and a security threat to U.S, that we went to war against, spent almost a trillion dollars, lost over 5000 of our soldiers for.

____________________

Batony:

@Johnny87

There is a reason Obama had Hillary, Joe Biden and himself in Pa this past week. Both camps internals are showing a closer race. McCain was there today, Palin is back on Sat. Same with NH.

With all the traditional red states, all McCain needs to do is show them he is interested, for a long time Obama basically had the states to himself, now that Palin and McCain are actually back campaigning in those states it is going to be tight.

____________________

fed:

Pa tracking poll has Obama at +16 now

____________________

Vokoban:

"boomshak:
@DecaturMark:
Was lobbying for Saddam Hussein illegal in some way I am not aware of?"

I never knew that meeting someone on a board was illegal.

You're a bigot. q.e.d.

____________________

boomshak:

So Ayers was voted Citizen of the Year in Chicago.

Was that before or after he was photographed standing on the America flag saying he wished he had bombed more buildings when he had the chance?

____________________

mahlers5th:

@RUSS TC3

Re: Ohio poll from Rasmussen, two days ago they had Obama up 49% to 47%, so where do you get a 5-point Obama swing? It's McCain +2, right?

____________________

DecaturMark:

@boomshak:

"You are comparing a terrorist bomber to a thief?"

Actually, I am comparing a Presidential candidate that chooses to associate himself with a policy-making individual in his campaign, who in the past was a lobbiest for a dictator that the candidate himself called a terrorist; to a person who sat on an educational board with an individual who 40 years ago committed bad acts and has, as a candidate, repudiated those acts and disavowed any connection between said individual and his own campaign. But I guess you conveniently missed that.

____________________

boomshak:

@mahlers5th:

Movement towards Mccain everywhere. It's really amazing.

____________________

1503er:

G. Gordon Liddy also said that if you're shooting at government agents to aim for their head because they're wearing bullet proof vests. Look, the main stream media gives McCain a pass all the friggin time. That's what's so funny about this idea that the MSM is liberal. If they were, we'd be talking about Sarah Plain's speech to the Alaska Independence Party and McCain's ties to G. Gordon Liddy.

But instead the liberal MSM is talking about Ayers and ACORN.

____________________

RussTC3:

mahlers5th

Fox News/Rasmussen Reports and Rasmussen Reports are SEPARATE survey's. It makes no sense to compare them to each other.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

mahlers5th the RAS poll today was a DIFFERENT poll than Fox news by RAS. 2 diff polls. Comparing exact poll for poll Obama was down last time. Now tied.

____________________

TheLioness:

@southern angler

"lioness sorry I was to bored to finish read your whatever"

Need I say more...

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Why does Palin speak at the Alaska Independence Party? That is SO UNAMERICAN.

____________________

1503er:

I apologize for using the eff word in my post up there about the Gallup poll. I just reread it and that little nugget glared out at me.

____________________

1503er:

PortlandRocks

I don't know, but you'll never get the MSM media to talk about it. In fact, the one time they did, on CNN, the reporter, during his on air report got a threatening email from the McCain campaign. He read it on the air.

____________________

RussTC3:

Oops, should be McCain +2, not -2. Which means it's a 1 point Obama Swing. My bad.

Here are the comparisons:

Rasmussen, 10/14 (9/23)
McCain 49 (47)
Obama 49 (46)
McCain +2, Obama +3 = 1 Point Obama Swing

Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 (10/5)
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 47 (48)
Obama +2, McCain -1 = 3 Point Obama Swing

____________________

DecaturMark:

Boom,

I am glad that you have recovered from your cancer so that you can appreciate what this country will become under an Obama presidency. I am sure that you saw some dark days before your treatment and recovery. Just as we, as a country, have seen the cancer that is President Bush as a dark day. But recovery is at hand. Obama is the chemotherapy that we need. He has said that it will not be easy, but that he has the faith in the American people that we can unite and fight this economic struggle so that we can all recover.

____________________

MileHigh:

Please, you need to realize that if you engage alankeyesisawesome and his ilk, your IQ immediately drops 10 points. Take a cue from Obama last night. If there is a conservative with a real argument, then by all means, let's get it on! Otherwise, ignore them; that will only increase their anger. You're letting them get your goat. Don't let them transfer their anger; let them hold on to it and dwell within their own poison. We need to keep our cool, and concentrate on winning this election. It's far from over; the only way to ensure victory is a landslide. That would surely neutralize any effort to steal this thing. We need to remember the lessons of 2000 and 2004. I'm mad as well, but I'm trying to use that anger and channel it into something productive.

That being said, it looked like Rear Admiral Poopstain had that "not so fresh feeling" last night.

____________________

boomshak:

LEFT TRYING TO DESTROY JOE THE PLUMBER:

Latest is they are claiming he is not licensed. Well, turns out in his state a license is not required if you work as a contractor for another plumber.

____________________

boomshak:

@DecaturMark:

Chemo gave me horrible diahhrea and made me puke all day.

Yep, that's Obama alright.

____________________

atreides:

Here's the thing. I think this poll tightening think is mostly technical for all the reasons that have been mentioned. But its actually a good thing. I had sense that folks were getting a little complacent about the election. Obama's best bet was a panicked turnout of AA's and students who want to heroically save their champion. There are so many new voters that are terrified (for various reasons) to vote. A sense of urgency such as "he might lose if I don't vote" will bolster his turnout and make this a rout.

____________________

DecaturMark:

boomshak:

"Chemo gave me horrible diahhrea and made me puke all day.

Yep, that's Obama alright."

But you have recovered and are stronger for it, Obama said that it would not be easy.

____________________

Publius:

Boom

He certainly does need a license. Turns that that neither he nor his employer have one.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081016/ap_on_el_pr/joe_the_plumber;_ylt=ArB4uGjdQ1XN80vun2gEV8Rq24cA

____________________

Publius:

Turns out that neither...

Posted too fast.

____________________

thoughtful:

At last one which is a statistical tie as its inside the MOE.

boomshak there is the audacity of hope!

McCain has run the worst very worst campaign ObAma should be 20 points ahead, what's going on?

____________________

Batony:

@Thoughtful:

I agree. McCain has ran a terrible campaign. The fact that he is even remotely in this thing is really crazy. Now he will get more positive press with his make-up with Letterman tonight. If I am an Obama supporter I am scratching my head.

____________________

1503er:

McCain has a good shot at winning the election. I'm not sure why so many people are convinced Obama is going to win.

____________________

Jimbo77:

Oldy75:
Alan Keyes where you been? You must of been proud that McCain doesn't believe in the "health of the Mother" exception. I guess Obama is a sinner in your mind for his views(he called Obama a sinner in 2004).

oldy: For us ignorant folks please list a couple bennefits for a moms health when she has a late term abortion vs birth.

____________________

Ryguy:

boom, you know what i love about your giddiness today... its no different than your misplaced giddiness last week when the polls "tightened" or the week before that when the polls "tightened". remember that buddy? remember how you got up in all of our faces and did a celebration dance, making predictions of ties, and then the very next day when polls opened up again you were NOWHERE to be found. you seem to make up for your absence during the vast majority of the past few weeks by writing a giddy celebration post every other line when the polls tighten.

what are you going to say when this is all over and mccain is not the president?

____________________

boomshak:

Did Barack "Spread the Wealth" Obama Just Blow the Election?

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/10/16/did-barack-spread-the-wealth-obama-just-blow-the-election.html

October 16, 2008 11:37 AM ET | James Pethokoukis

No. Really. You're kidding me. Barack Obama actually told that Joe the Plumber guy that he wants to "spread the wealth around." What, did Obama just get done reading the Wikipedia entry on Huey "Share the Wealth" Long or something? Was he somehow channeling that left-wing populist from the Depression? Talk about playing into the most extreme stereotype of your party, that it is infested with socialists.

A while back I chatted with a University of Chicago professor who was a frequent lunch companion of Obama's. This professor said that Obama was as close to a full-out Marxist as anyone who has ever run for president of the United States. Now, I tend to quickly dismiss that kind of talk as way over the top. My working assumption is that Obama is firmly within the mainstream of Democratic politics. But if he is as free with that sort of redistributive philosophy in private as he was on the campaign trail this week, I have no doubt that U of C professor really does figure him as a radical. And after last night's debate, a few more Americans might think that way, too. McCain's best line: "Now, of all times in America, we need to cut people's taxes. We need to encourage business, create jobs, not spread the wealth around."

And by the way, I just noticed that the IBD/TIPP poll, the most accurate in 2004, has McCain down by just 3 points. If the contest is perceived by the voters as a contest between a wealth redistributor and a wealth creator, then it could be a long night come Nov. 4. This is still a center-right country, gang. Note this Gallup poll from June:

When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today's consumer, Americans overwhelmingly—by 84% to 13%—prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans.

____________________

boomshak:

Oops, sorry about the all bold.

____________________

Ryguy:

1503er,

its not impossible for mccain to win, but he does not have a good shot. obamas ground game has been better, his entire campaign has been better, and hes led in the polls for the VAST majority of this campaign. you can say that the state polls "will change" but you have no proof of that. historically the candidate ahead right now, and yeah obama is still ahead no matter how you want to spin it, usually wins the election. is that a good enough reason why im convinced obama is going to win?

____________________

boomshak:

Did Barack "Spread the Wealth" Obama Just Blow the Election?

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/10/16/did-barack-spread-the-wealth-obama-just-blow-the-election.html

October 16, 2008 11:37 AM ET | James Pethokoukis

No. Really. You're kidding me. Barack Obama actually told that Joe the Plumber guy that he wants to "spread the wealth around." What, did Obama just get done reading the Wikipedia entry on Huey "Share the Wealth" Long or something? Was he somehow channeling that left-wing populist from the Depression? Talk about playing into the most extreme stereotype of your party, that it is infested with socialists.

A while back I chatted with a University of Chicago professor who was a frequent lunch companion of Obama's. This professor said that Obama was as close to a full-out Marxist as anyone who has ever run for president of the United States. Now, I tend to quickly dismiss that kind of talk as way over the top. My working assumption is that Obama is firmly within the mainstream of Democratic politics. But if he is as free with that sort of redistributive philosophy in private as he was on the campaign trail this week, I have no doubt that U of C professor really does figure him as a radical. And after last night's debate, a few more Americans might think that way, too. McCain's best line: "Now, of all times in America, we need to cut people's taxes. We need to encourage business, create jobs, not spread the wealth around."

And by the way, I just noticed that the IBD/TIPP poll, the most accurate in 2004, has McCain down by just 3 points. If the contest is perceived by the voters as a contest between a wealth redistributor and a wealth creator, then it could be a long night come Nov. 4. This is still a center-right country, gang. Note this Gallup poll from June:

When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today's consumer, Americans overwhelmingly—by 84% to 13%—prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans.

____________________

Dana Adini:

The McCain Strategy:

Everybody is wondering what the hell is Campaign is still doing in PA where 16 consecutive polls show him behind in double digits.

It's evdident that when he fell behind in the polls after the convention they figured it would be impossible to defend every state. So the said let's win PA (where it was pretty close) and NH and if we can still win even if we lose either Florida or Ohio. TRhey figured the other Red states would fall in line as the race tightened nationally and if the didn't what the difference between losing close or losing by a landslide. As PA slipped away the strategy didn't change, not enough money or time to defend 8 red states.

They also didn't figure that Virginia would change beyond the national trend and that Obama would have a lead Beyond the MOE.

I think the Obama camp is happy that McCain is spending resources and time in PA, so they are playing along. It's real curious that an internal Obama polls makes it's by accident to a conservative talk show host showing they are only + 2. As long as the GOP states in PA they cant defend VA, MO, NC, NV, CO

That's the only logical explanation i can find

____________________

Basil:

Dana

It's a thought. A well planned internal poll "leak" might help keep McCain in PA, and prevent complacency on the part of Obama supporters there and elsewhere.

____________________

Publius:

Anybody see this? Read the whole release from 2006.

http://www.mdc.edu/Home/Press/rally.htm

____________________

cinnamonape:

Ha! McCain spoke as a guest of ACORN on immigration legalization! Her probably even got paid a gratuity fee!

Just who is sounding like a nut-case here?


____________________

Basil:

I forgot to mention this. When it comes to actually voting, Obama supporters would be well advised to pay no attention to any polls whatever. The only insurance against further GOP voter fraud in Ohio and elsewhere is an Obama Tsunami.

And even if Obama has a massive lead over McCain, reaching 60 votes in the senate is a goal in itself, and will help drive the stake further into the heart of the neocon GOP death machine.

____________________

Basil:

cinnamon

Yes, the ACORN issue is a total non-starter in real terms. It only works with some of the easily duped (bitter?) folks out there who don't (or can't) realize that there's no way anything ACORN does can affect the outcome of any election. Bogus names put on forms by lazy ACORN workers only serve to get those workers paid by ACORN. Fake people don't vote.

One might think that GOPoopheads would be happy to see ACORN workers wasting their time instead of actually registering new voters. But in the Rovian spirit of accusing one's opponent of doing the very things one is guilty of, the bogus voter fraud angle is the lie to go with.

____________________

saywhat90:

funny how mccain need the help of a relative unknown to help him with his campaign. wait isnt this second time he did that.first palin an unknown governor from alaska, now joe and unknown plumber from pa. cant win on your own find a nobody to help you. shock and awe the crowd. will it work who knows but it was fun to watch.

____________________

mac7396:

To all the repubs who suddenly think McCain has a chance.

Pollster projection Obama EVs 313
Pollster projection McCain EVs 155

Ok, you can go back to your fantasy of continuing 4 more years of GWB policies. The rest of America is ready to move on.

____________________

cinnamonape:

An Irish gambling agency has decided to stop taking bets on the US Presidential race. "We're paying off all the bets on Obama being the victor". When asked what would happen if McCain somehow actually won...he said, "We wouldn't actually pay out that much money, we had a lot of early betting on him but that faded, and people cashed out."

Wonder when InTrade will do the same?

____________________

GlassHalfFull:

It's so funny to see these McManiacs get so excited because their guy is BEHIND by six points in one poll.

Historically, the popular vote winner pulls 6-12% more than his opponent, and it translates into a comfortable 120-200 electoral vote margin. EVERY indication, despite delusional arguments otherwise, is that this is precisely what will happen in 2008.

Look, the facts are these. Obama is WAY ahead in every state that Kerry won, plus Iowa. McCain has to absolutely thread the needle in every one of the other contested states, most of which he is trailing in: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana. Ain't gonna happen. Not even close. In fact (I've done the math), Obama's national lead could shrink to 1% (which it won't) and he still ends up with 286 electoral votes.

In a couple of days, with defeat inevitable, boom and alan will disappear from these sites, and we won't hear from them again until 2012. Take care, guys.

____________________

thoughtful:

Rupert Murdock owned The Times published in London today endorsed Barack Obama as best candidate to be the next President of the United States.

____________________

boomshak:

ZOGBY: MCCAIN GETS DEBATE BOUNCE, NOT OBAMA!

Obama 38.7, McCain 33.7 (Thursday/Only 3.6% Obama Lead!)

UTICA, New York – The race for President was largely unchanged by the final debate between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, as Obama retained an overall five-point lead in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll.

This latest report includes most of one 24-hour polling cycle that was conducted after the debate. The balance of the three days of survey work included in the rolling average came prior to the debate Wednesday at Hofstra University on Long Island. However, the most recent 24-hour cycle of polling was little changed from the three days of combined data. The one-day total showed Obama with a 3.6% advantage over McCain, while the three-day total showed Obama with a 5.0% edge, 48.7% to 43.7% for McCain.

CONCLUSION:
The one-day total the day after the debate showed a full 2 points move to McCain to 3.6%.

____________________

boomshak:

@GlassHalfFull:

Obozo is ahead by 2 amongst LV's on Gallup.

____________________

decided:

@boomshak and co.

The people who vote for McCain are here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGweG1MRK3Y

shocking, but true. boomshak may be one of them.
At least, there are some intelligent people around, see:

http://www.hakubi.us/simplyamerican/data/capsi/2004election_by_iq.png

coincidence or correlation?

GOP - The party for people with IQ below 98 and for people with 7 houses.

____________________

boomshak:

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Four
Posted: Thursday, October 16, 2008

McCain clung to a three-point margin behind Obama entering their last debate. The race remains a virtual dead heat among Independents, with 24% still undecided. Investors are also dead- locked, while non-investors favor Obama. So far, McCain is not doing as well as Bush did in 2004 with key GOP support groups, including those who call themselves conservatives and married women.

Q: If the 2008 election for U.S. president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?

About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.

____________________

boomshak:

@decided:

Washington post endorses Obama

"...and in other shocking news, the sun rose this morning."

____________________

thoughtful:

@boomshak

Indies- Zogby has 18% in Obama's favor, 10% Kos, 20% Hotline; and these guys have it dead heat with 24% undecided - baloney.

I hear that you no longer sleep at night.

____________________

sebastianguy99:

@boomshak

So we're supposed to believe a poll commissioned by Business Invester Daily is the best poll?

Here are some questions from their site:

Agree or disagree: I believe the government should control or own key industries such as healthcare and energy?

Agree or disagree: The U.S. is evolving into a socialist state?

Agree or disagree: I believe it is the government's role to redistribute wealth and income?

Funny how you they claim to be the most accurate in 2004, but you actually have to purchase a subscription to see how they support their own claim.

____________________



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