10/05-07, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Obama 51, McCain 45
I don't think it's any surprise that some of the mudslinging has shaved off a couple of points. But look for some polls that reflect post-debate sentiment to push it back up.
And in actuality, and 8 to 6 movement with MOE isn't all that consequential. I'll say if Gallup is also down 2 or 3 points for Obama, then the smears have created some movement.
Posted on October 8, 2008 9:53 AM
AND IT JUST GETS WEIRDER:
The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
- Obama and McCain are now tied 44-44% among men. Today's Diageo/Hotline poll is the first in which Obama has not led men since he trailed them 46-45% in the survey completed 9/26.
- The candidates remained tied on economic issues. 42% believe Obama would do the best job handling the U.S. economy, and 42% say McCain. 62% meanwhile believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S.
- McCain, however, now has his largest lead ever on energy issues. 46% favor the GOP nominee on managing U.S. energy policies, and 40% favor Obama. One week ago, in the survey completed 9/30, Obama led 46-40% on energy.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/5-7 by FD, surveyed 904 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.
Posted on October 8, 2008 9:58 AM
In Independnts nd Undecideds even watched that snoozefest.
Posted on October 8, 2008 9:59 AM
Diageo was at 2 points yesterday. We talked about this yesterday. They changed the way they weight party ID. As far as I'm concerned, this is another attempt of a pollster to change the narative. They changed their party weighting from 5% to 2% Democratic advantage.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:04 AM
Actually, Hotline has their Democrat Advantage back up to 5 points in this poll a stated here:
"Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/5-7 by FD, surveyed 904 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I."
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:06 AM
I mean just look at this:
Rasmussen Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 1220 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/05 - 10/07 904 LV 45 44 Obama +1
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/02 - 10/07 800 LV 49 45 Obama +4
Gallup Tracking 10/04 - 10/06 2747 RV 51 42 Obama +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV 49 43 Obama +6
CBS News 10/03 - 10/05 616 LV 48 45 Obama +3
CNN 10/03 - 10/05 694 LV 53 45 Obama +8
Democracy Corps (D) 10/01 - 10/05 1000 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Obama collapsing like mad. I'll be honest, I am quite surprised.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:08 AM
Sorry, but a +2 Dem ID advantage just isn't realistic. It's going to be at least +6, even by conservative estimates. Also remember, it's all about the state polls. (which the latest round could also very well reflect the same movement toward McCain). But if say.. PA goes from +12 to +8 Obama or GA jumps from +8 to +14 to McCain, it doesn't mean much.
Hmm, yeah I think the mudslinging is working a bit, not sure what to make of this movement back to McCain although he doesn't break 46% still. I am not liking this as an Obama supporter. We should know by Friday/Saturday if the debates help push Obama back up or if these attacks continue to tighten things. I am officially concerned though.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:09 AM
Read the poll man, the Dem Advantage is 5, not 2.
McCain will tank again, when yesterday's stunt will be debunked:
"[W]e should consider giving the government the authority to purchase mortgages directly instead of simply purchasing mortgage- backed securities. In the past, such an approach has allowed taxpayers to profit as the housing market recovered. This is not simply a question of looking out for homeowners; it's doubtful that the economy as a whole can recover without the restoration of our housing sector, including a rebound in the home values that have suffered dramatically in recent months."
That was Obama just 2 weeks ago.
"And it's my proposal, it's not Sen. Obama's proposal" (McCain yesterday)
Boomshak is right: this is the worst campaign ever.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:10 AM
I stand corrected.
Obama statement minutes ago:
And I call on Congress to immediately pass a rescue plan for our middle-class that will save one millions jobs and provide relief to struggling families, small businesses, and Americans who are losing their homes
It looks like we may have movement on the stimulus front.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:11 AM
The question is, did undecided's sit through that snoozefest at all?
The BIG NEWS out of the debates was McCain's new "Mortgage Resurgence Plan" which will likely appeal to the middle class.
Face it, this is a WEIRD election.
"The BIG NEWS out of the debates was McCain's new "Mortgage Resurgence Plan" which will likely appeal to the middle class."
If only it weren't exactly Obama's plan from two weeks ago...
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:12 AM
I wouldn't worry about the race getting tigher on the national level. Obama still has significant leadsin Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada and Red states in 2004.
If the numbers in those states got tight I would start to be concerned.
Omama's Intrade numbers are up 3% despite these polls
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:13 AM
Look I don't care what Hotline says....from the beginning of this campaign they are always the outlier. GWU and Hotline should hang out on the fringe together :) Not to mention whatever bump McMoron got from the Ayers and Wright crap will surely be overshadowed yet again by losing another debate.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:15 AM
I expected this McCain mini surge. It was normal, the Republican and Ind-Conservative base get energized every time they see Palin or that the race gets near to be decided.
I have to say that I was quite worried that if McCain had a solid appearance in the debate the polls would get seriously closer again.
However, the debate showed a fragile, old, disconnected McCain, far from the leader America is expecting. I thin things will get back to normal (Obama +6,7) in two days time.
There is one thing that worries me though, Boomshak forecasted a +15 Obama after the debate, and you know what happens when he makes a prediction... ;)
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:16 AM
where did you get the link to today's Hotline?
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:17 AM
I don’t know if the debate will have any effect at all. If people were like me, I watched Family Guy from 9 to 10, then Entourage from 10:00 to 10:30. The attacks will play with people who were leaning towards Obama, but have their doubts. Plus I keep saying there are still way too many undecideds and persuable voters for anyone to declare the race is over. The one thing I would encourage pundits to stop doing is using the word smooth to describe Obama. As soon as I hear that word, I think of the word slick.
And by the way a person who wants to be president should not refer to another candidate for president as "that one!" I think that is about as immature as you can be at this level of discourse.
Every single poll out so far this morning is showing significant contraction for Obama.
This race is MUCH tighter than it should be.
All the polls showed Obama won the debate but nothing new was said. I watched 10 minutes of the debate in Sea-Tac airport stopping on my way back from Alaska to NJ.
All I saw was John McCain. He looked old, grumpy, grim vs. Obama who looks young and energetic. That's why I think he won the debate. The substance was blah blah from the last time. The first two debate (Pres and VP) gave Obama huge bounces post. Let's see in 2 days
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:18 AM
Obama is still up in those states, but the state polls lag the national ones. By this weekend some of the red states leaning Obama such as Virginia will go back to yellow as well as Florida and Ohio. Then the media can say "oo things are tightening up."
I think drinkwine is right.. I'd say if by Friday, the polls STILL show a trend toward McCain, it gets really interesting. However, if by then we're back to Obama +6/7/8.. or even if where we are today solidly plateaus.. it will take an act of God for McCain to somehow come back. By the way, I prefer Merlot =)
Yep, we'll just have to wait and see. It looks like the Ayers thing and Obama's ultra-lame response to it has teeth.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:19 AM
I think what we are seeing is a few great days from Obama dropping off over the weekend (the Palin freak-out) and the negative attacks moving a couple of points.
We'll probably see an uptick again for Obama post debate...
The question is can the smears hold up and move the numbers for 27 more days...I don't think so.
You're right, these polls are everywhere. Your list only includes 4 that cover the 6th and 7th, the rest cover through the 5th and are widely divergent.
I don't see movement because of those, since they're so different.
The question is are Zogby and Hotline doing something different than Ras? What will gallup do today? Is there movement in mostly republican states as people consider the Ayers stuff or is it more widely throughout the population?
Either way the McCain camp said today that they'd drop the attacks and focus on the economy now. If the attacks were working (I don't think they had much effect but whatever) it's a bad time to drop them.
Step away from the polls and take a minute to think about the "Mortgage Resurgence Plan" that McCain proposed last night. As if socialization of the banking system wasn't enough, he's now advocating socialization of the entire housing market?! "Can't afford your house, no worries, the government controls market values!"
Also, Obama took a more hawkish line on Pakistan than McCain did. It's like freaky Friday. Cats sleeping with dogs, mass hysteria!
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:20 AM
While I know Rasmussen is a wingnut and I think some of his issue polling is suspect, I've always put the most trust in his head-to-head polls, including his tracker. Why? Because he rarely shows any kind of wacky movement - any movement he does show is gradual. Whatever his methodology is, it somehow eliminates crazy event-driven swings. Of course, there are some events that turn into real advantages or disadvantages for a candidate - and Rasmussen does reflect those but they take a while to appear in his daily tracker. Going back to 9/26, Obama has been at 50-52 in this poll and McCain at 44-45. Rasmussen notes this stability and also notes that it's problematic for McCain.
Today is right within that range and the same numbers Obama had just 5 days ago (10/4). And the Rasmussen favorable/unfavorable numbers have also been pretty stable. Today is no different, with O leading, 56-52.
I don't think this is the result of the McCain/Palin attacks. What I think we're seeing here is people stepping away from the cliff's edge, which is where they were standing in the 2-3 days after they saw the crazy lady from Alaska on teevee winking and dropping her Gs. They've refocused on McCain, especially in the lead up to the debate, and realized that he's really the guy running for president, not Ms. Faux Folksy. The debate may help push things back in Obama's direction again...or it just may stabilize that race at 5-6pt average Obama lead. We'll see...
After her 2 week honeymoon, whenever Palin's been in the spotlight (Gibson interview, Couric interview, the veep debate), she's hurt McCain. Rather than "Let Sarah be Sarah", the McCain camp should send her back into hiding. But the right wingers have pretty much conceded the election at this point and they want more of her because they love her so.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:21 AM
The Ayers thing matters because it goes right to the heart of Obama's core principles and judgement.
He has no econonomic experience at all, so we are just trusting his judgement that he will be able to handle the crisis. If his judgement is suspect, it rattles the whole cage.
All today polls are before the debate when all the media were advertising Palin's attack on Obama whole day. Moreover Biden was off for 3 days that means no counterattack had been made from Obama side.
However, after good reaction from Debate for Obama (all the polls show obama win for debate) and Biden is back on trail from this morning, I can predict tomorrow poll will be again going for Obama.
But for now, enjoy Boomshack.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:22 AM
Gramps true.....but I wasn't even counting Virginia. The leads in 2004 red states such as Ohio New Mexico, Florida and Iowa (has been dark blue for 6 months) is pretty significant. I think Palin attacked has rallied the Rep. and rep leaning indy base. That's why at the end of the day North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri and maybe Virginia will stay red. Colorodo is 50-50
"Also, Obama took a more hawkish line on Pakistan than McCain did. It's like freaky Friday. Cats sleeping with dogs, mass hysteria!"
I think we make the false assumption that most people think like we do.
Who the hell knows, what an election!
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:24 AM
Don't forget Biden hasn't been campaigning due to death in the Family for almost a week. So the Dems have been pretty quiet.
I think Obama will wind up with 325 EV which is the map you see above plus Nevada. I think the other 4 yellow states will be close but will stay red
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:25 AM
We'll see, it's nuts.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:26 AM
Amd boomshak who forfieted yesterday, is back alive and kicking :-)
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:27 AM
Obama may be losing a point or two because of MCCain/ Palin's lynch-mob style rallies where they get their crazies to yell out "Kill him" and "terrorist" and yell racial epithets and any African Americans that happen to be standing near by.
They're only going to be doing this more and more. The media needs to grow a pair and point their camera's at the crowd during these Nuremberg-style rallies, so that we can see what these slack-jawed bloodthirsty psychopathic Klansmen actually look like.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:34 AM
Last Wednesday when Obama droped to +4 in Gallup tracking and Boomshack was really excited and predicting a tie by the weekend, I said at that time that it was due to the time week. Obama's support typically drops to its lowest levels by Wednesday. I predict that Obama's support will even be stronger next week.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:37 AM
Don't forget folks, this Friday is the release of the troopergate report.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:38 AM
If we get into talking about Ayers, we're going to have to talk about John McCain sitting on the board of a private group called U.S. Council for World Freedom that gave aid to Osama Bin Laden.
Per Politico, the McCain campaign it taking Ayers off the table and won't even go there with Wright. Says they are going to focus on the economy. That tells me that a) the realize the only way they are going to win this is or even come close is by focusing on the economy and b) their internal polling was showing them that they Ayers attacks were hurting them with independents and undecides. I think it's both "a" and "b" and I think it's a smart move by the campaign. I think it's too little, too late and I don't think it will put them over the top, but at least McCain can go out with some dignity. The wingnuts, of course, will howl because not only do they want this to be all Ayers, all the time....they also hate the homeowner bailout proposal McCain introduced last night. And it's that proposal that will likely be the cornerstone of his economic message moving forward.
Again, I don't think this will work - people just don't trust Republicans on the economy these days. But maybe McCain actually does have some respect left in him.
Question is, can he rein in Palin? I wonder if she thinks that she can do whatever she wants, regardless of what McCain says. It's not like he can dump her - if he did, conservatives would probably stay home en masse. And she needs to distance herself from the loser in prep for 2012.
from ARG today
Obama is far more efficient in the Electoral College than McCain. Approximately 68% of Obama's national ballot share of 49% comes from states where Obama leads. Approximately 44% of McCain's national ballot share of 45% comes from states where McCain leads. Less than one-third of Obama's votes are wasted in the Electoral College while over one-half of McCain's votes are wasted. McCain would be better off focusing on Florida and Minnesota instead of Iowa and New Mexico because increasing his ballot share in states he is likely to lose does not help him at all in the Electoral College.
Because of McCain's electoral inefficiency, even if McCain were to proportionately increase his national ballot share to 49% for a tie, Obama would still lead with 316 electoral votes. Obama is running a race in the Electoral College while McCain is running a national race.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:39 AM
If you plot the Rasmussen poll for the last month it shows surprising stability. McCain's number is dithering +/- .5 (or one point) Obama's number is probably dithering at the moment.
Yeah, today is the day that the Alaska Supreme Court is going to rule.
The average of today's polls is still O+5. That is a HUUUUGE lead. O+3 is HUGE! +3 equates to a 99% chance of electoral victory. +3 equates to well over 300 EVs. And his daily number is at +5 and that's including clear outliers. Is it +8 or +9? No. But wholly cr*p people - with almost 30% of the electorate ready to give W a 3rd term, Sydney looks like a God send. There are 27 days left, less than 4 weeks and more than 95% of the electorate is concrete with BO at least at +5. Sydney needs to win all remeaining undecides and more than a few BO's. For thoose of you who understand the state races, PA, MI, CO and VA all are ahead of the National numbers. Therefore Sydney needs to be at least +1.2 to win this thing. That is more than 6% the electorate needs to shift in the last 27 days.
That would be unprecedented, especially given the present circumstances.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:43 AM
Obama actually had a good night last night on Rasmussen but the margin reduced because his exceptional night on Saturday fell of the 3-day rolling average.
I expect the margin to go up in tomorrow's release.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:45 AM
I would advice against excessive and premature celebration at this point. As things now stand, the leads Obama has in most of the swing states are still pretty tenuous. The only Bush 2004 state he is winning convincingly is Iowa. Turning a red state blue is inherently more difficult than playing defense, which gives McCain an advantage. It is also important to keep in mind the number of undecided voters in the red states Obama is leading in. Undecided voters who make up their mind in the last minute tend to vote for what's familiar to them or listen to their "gut feelings." By definition many of them are red state voters and may presumably opt for McCain. And on a ground level, I just have difficulty visualizing NC or VA going for Obama. Even New Mexico may not be as "safe" as it looks (lots of undecided).
If anyone wants to convince me that now's the time to stock up on champagne in anticipation, go for it. But I won't relax a bit until I see Obama leading by 10 in FL or OH. The "today in 2004" chart at electoral-vote.com showed Kerry leading Bush 280 to 239. I wonder if people were celebrating then, only to be disappointed come election day.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:46 AM
The National Polls mean nothing except how the candidate that individual day is tracking. It's the battle ground state's polls that matter. Bottom line: If McCain is losing in either Ohio and Florida then he will not win. Simple as that. McCain MUST win Ohio and Florida. If Obama is leading in those 2 state polls no matter how close they are but leading. It's bad news for McCain. I live in Indianapolis, IN. Obama rally in an hour and a half 10 minutes from where I live (State FairGrounds; 38th and Keystone. I live at 79th and Keystone). I have go in work later or was thinking about going. Last nite after debate an Obama AD came on. Soon after a McCain AD came on. I smiled knowing that is a point for Obama. The fact the RNC is being forced to advertise in a blood red state in Indiana. A state that has not went DEM since 64?? I expect McCain to win Indiana but when he is defending IN, Missouri, NC etc... It's bad news for McCain. If you are defending you are not on offense. This last debate will be a forum and topic to Obama's advantage. So McCain is wishful thinking these debates will change anything.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:49 AM
Meh, about what I expected. I suspect Obama will keep around this lead in Rasmussen, give or take a couple of points, as long as nothing game changing happens.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:51 AM
Quit using "outlier" to describe a poll unless it really is one. "Outlier" is a statistical term and ALL these polls are within upper and lower ranges... and are NOT outliers.
Not just Obama has been talking about buying up mortgages. I have been hearing this idea for WEEKS. But McCain goes further and talks about refinancing at the lower market price to keep people in their homes which easily trumps foreclosures in terms of mortgage financing. Makes sense.
Note: During the debate, Obama has a chance to respond to McCain's plan and said NOTHING.
CNN reported that most instant polls will show Obama winning the debate because so many more Democrats watch the debates. I will wait to see something reflected in the regular polling.
What is this Obamanation obsession with Palin? It is really creepy.
Posted on October 8, 2008 10:57 AM
As I pointed out yesterday…McCain is at 174, if he wins NC (15), Va (13), FL (27), OH (20), NV (5), MO (11), CO (9)….then he is at 274. That’s why I think the attack strategy will have an effect…Obama must still one of the red states, McCain can win without a traditional blue state. I’m not betting against McCain winning all the traditional red states. People can knock Palin all they work, but she will be the driving force in the states McCain has to win
Posted on October 8, 2008 11:00 AM
@KipTin, you said "CNN reported that most instant polls will show Obama winning the debate because so many more Democrats watch the debates. I will wait to see something reflected in the regular polling."
CNN used a 7 point party ID advantage for Obama (same as the ones they use for their regular polls) for their instant poll as well :-)
Just as so many more Dems watch the debate there are so many more of the Dem voters out there currently :-)
Posted on October 8, 2008 11:02 AM
And your point is?
Posted on October 8, 2008 11:05 AM
The point is KipTin if you think it's going to be a 50/50 split of Party ID on election day, you're fooling yourself. Even the most conservative estimates are predicting at least a +6 Dem advantage. (And I'm talking self-identified/registered as Democrats, not necesarily VOTING Dem. on Election Day.)
Posted on October 8, 2008 11:09 AM
The point is that if a poll that uses a party id breakdown that is reflective of a presidential election thought that Obama clearly won the debate then he WON THE DEBATE you monkey.
Posted on October 8, 2008 11:15 AM
the point is VA is so much changed from the demographic... it is not same as 4 years ago.
so is Colorado and nevada.
If they are the same people from the 2004, i guess Maccain will win finally.
however, VA, CO, NV are different from 2004.
That's why I'm very sure VA can go blue....especially big turnout of AA and young voters with strong ground game, Obama has great chance to win.
And if VA goes to Obama, there is no chance for Maccain.
Posted on October 8, 2008 11:20 AM
Hmm. Given the results of Rasmussen this morning I think it can be said that at the least McCain has stopped the downward slide in the polls -- and perhaps he is gaining a little traction.
Reasons? Maybe between Palin's decent performance in her debate, the focus on the Obama/Ayers connection, and a whiff of uncertainty about Obama the race is tightening somewhat.
Put another way: these numbers for McCain are no worse than they were during late July.
It remains, of course, to be seen whether this trend is actually a trend and, if so, whether it will be enough for McCain.
Posted on October 8, 2008 11:21 AM
boom, this is becoming a daily thing with you. in the morning talk about how the race isnt over, and by night talk about how the election is over... then wake up the next morning and talk about how the election isnt over yet.
ras moving from +8 to +6 is with in the margin of error for a 3 day poll, and is not very significant. however, as many of us have been saying, we expect the polls to tighten going into election day... thats generally how it happens.
Posted on October 8, 2008 11:29 AM
It doesn't suprise me that McCain's attacks have had a small impact on the national polling. It took the Obama campaign a couple of days to respond with their Keating 5 ad. That along with Obama's perceived victory in last night's debate should mitigate any further losses. I expect the national polls at the end of the week will not be significantly different than they were at the beginning of the week, barring any unforseen events between now and then.
Posted on October 8, 2008 12:31 PM
"Obama must still one of the red states, McCain can win without a traditional blue state. I’m not betting against McCain winning all the traditional red states. People can knock Palin all they work, but she will be the driving force in the states McCain has to win"
Yes, Palin has helped drive NC to Obama. NC was going to go blue this cycle anyway, based on the predominance of economic concerns in NC (with Iraq coming in second - and Obama consistently chosen as the better choice to lead on that issue in NC polling). But McCain's choice of Palin for running mate has helped seal the deal, creating more enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate especially amongst NC women. The group with whom Palin does the worst in NC polling is suburban moms; they have shifted to Obama by large numbers since her selection.
Posted on October 8, 2008 1:10 PM
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