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US: Obama 51, McCain 46 (Rasmussen 10/29-31)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/29-31, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 51, McCain 46

 

Comments
mago:

I'll take upticks on R2K and Ras in exchange for a downtick on Zogby any day.

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BrookLynda:

I don't really care about national polls except for their impact on the national conversation/perception of the race, so on those terms this is useful in contraverting the irresponsible Drudge/Zogby nonsense.

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gibraltar72:

After doing phone banking in a very red county I think there is a dynamic not talked about too much. That dynamic is a sense that a lot of folks want to be on the right side of history. I am convinced many people will in the future want to say to kids or grandkids I voted for the first black president.

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maddiekat:

Hotline Poll
O 51 M 44 No Change

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

The more polls coming in showing no movement toward McCain. The more Zogby loses any hint of credibility he had left.

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thoughtful:

Reverse Bradley effect, anyone?

I don't suppose Scott himself has a view of why his poll has been so eemarkably stable for over a month.

Obama in the middle of his 2 point spread and McCain at the top of his.

I expect there will be some final touches for the poll tomorrow and Monday.

All will be revealed.

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Cho:

51-44 in Hotline is actually quite a change, Obama above 50% for the first time in weeks there.

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pbcrunch:

For all of you people worrying over the PA numbers tightening, consider this: AZ numbers are tightening to an even greater extent. PA and AZ aren't a 1:1 trade in terms of electoral votes but a McCain path to victory which includes PA (in addition to OH, FL, NC, IN, and MO) is totally destroyed if they lose AZ.

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maddiekat:

Cho

Good point!

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jonny87:

the early voting numbers are looking great.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

an encouraging sign from the NC numbers is how quickly the 18-29 vote is growing. In a week gone from 10.8% to 13.9%.

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Trosen:

Obama above 50 in Ras, 3 days out.. looking good.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

I guess Zogby was the outlier.

Seriously, never look at just one poll, but the averages for the day. Every poll you see has a 5% chance of being an outlier, which means every week two or three of the daily tracking polls should be off by more than the margin of error.

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AtlantaBill:

@BrookLynda:
"the irresponsible Drudge/Zogby nonsense."

Must agree with your observation and also must admit that i was a bit shaken when i first saw the drudge proclamation. but then i went back and reflected on the fact that drudge is nothing more than a right-wing hack that spends his entire day looking for anything that reflects negatively on Obama - so i say let mat d dwell in the drudge-sludge over the next few days and hopefully the stuff doesn't get too thick.


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pbcrunch:

@jonny87:

The uptick makes sense. Younger voters are generally more clustered that other voters (college towns, etc.), easier to (once you have their cell phone #), and easier to motivate to do something with little notice.

The Obama campaign has been getting older/poorer voters to the polls first because those voters may require a window of 5 days to do motivate themselves and/or find the time to go to the polls and/or are simply harder to locate and contact.

For younger voters, all Obama has to do is send text messages and make sure the student organizers are out in force.

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pbcrunch:

*easier to find (once you have their cell...)

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AlanSnipes:

It's looking good. I'd feel better if we have these same numbers Monday morning.

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platanoman:

I heard Obam is over 50% in Diego Hotline but he's tied with independents? Odd.

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wotan:

I have it from a source close to the Republican campaign apparatus that the "dead heat in Iowa" claim yesterday was a matter of "You say what you have to say to win." Pretty much describes the GOP philosophy.

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Obama's Pitbull:

Everyone check this out EARLY VOTING IN ATLANTA VIDEO 8 TO 10 HOUR WAIT:

http://thepage.time.com/long-voting-lines-in-atlanta/


Incredible!!!!!!!

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Saxa:

The story about Obama's Aunt is starting to get lots of play. Is this the "November surprise"? Could it turn the undedecideds (that are left) in Pennsylvania?

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merveilleux:

@pbcrunch:

I have to second that. Dragging my older relatives out to the polls is a chore. Getting my friends rarely takes more than a "want 2 vote?" text message and a promise of an "election party" (read: twenty people, a television, and a case of beer) afterward.

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sandman:

Looks like Hotline pushed the undecideds and they broke 50/50 with O maintaing a 7 point lead.

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merveilleux:

@saxa:

I don't think there ARE any "left" undecideds.

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purplevoter:

Saxa,

That is ridiculous!
I have 34 aunts and uncles on both sides of my family and am close to maybe 10. This woman is a half-aunt from a father he saw once in his lifetime!!!! This is another example of McCain/Pailin overreaching. All it will do is get those who were going to vote McCain to vote McCain. Won't change any minds.

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sandman:

@platanoman,

Actually if you think about it, O will have an advantage over M in that the dem ID advantage will be anywhere between 5-10 points. In 2004 it was even 37-37. So even if indys tied, each point advantage that O has with dems is a 90-10 break for him (roughly) with that % extra of voters. So a 5-10 point voter ID advantage povides O with a massive advantage in this election. It won't be a terribly close race even if the ID advantage is at the low end of that range. At the high end and you're looking a a landslide.

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asquared:

Saxa:
The story about Obama's Aunt is starting to get lots of play. Is this the "November surprise"? Could it turn the undedecideds (that are left) in Pennsylvania?

----
So we can't talk about Palin's pregnant unwed teenage daughter, we can't talk about McCain's wife's drug abuse histroy, and we can't talk about how McCain cheated on his first wife, but we can talk about Obama's half-aunt who may have immigration issues?

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iVote:

Wasn't Sean Hannity and the Republicans' recent talking point that Obama didn't practice what he preaches because he didn't help out his aunt who lived in a slum in Boston? Now the only way this new revelation could be incriminating to Obama is if he somehow did help her out knowing she was illegal. Isn't it possible that Obama had a hunch but didn't have proof that his aunt was illegal, so he didn't help her out because he didn't want to break any kind of law.

Anyone?

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Obama's Pitbull:

8 TO 10 Hour waits in Georgia!!!!!!!!

http://thepage.time.com/long-voting-lines-in-atlanta/

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political_junki:

Back to PA :-)
By the way did anybody notice the difference in party ids in Muhlenberg has gone down? I find that strange that people's party affiliation can change so rapidly?
-------------------------------------------------
RESULTS FOR FIELDING PERIOD OF OCTOBER 24-28 2008
Q1. Which political party are you currently registered with?
DEMOCRAT................. 53%
REPUBLICAN............... 40%
INDEPENDENT.............. 5%
OTHER PARTY............... 1%

RESULTS FOR FIELDING PERIOD OF OCTOBER 27-31 2008

Q1. Which political party are you currently registered with?

DEMOCRAT................. 50%
REPUBLICAN............... 40%
INDEPENDENT.............. 7%
OTHER PARTY............... 2%

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BrookLynda:

Re: Obama aunt.

I don' think voters care much for last-minute attacks on candidates' family members.

Remember when both Kerry and Edwards brought up Cheney's gay daughter? Yes, I know the point each was trying to make but it was a huge turn-off in focus groups.

McPlanecrash knows this and will steer clear (I think).

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maddiekat:

Saxa

You must be watching Fox (of course)

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Saxa:

@asquared

I totally agree with you. The diehard faithful on the Obama side with dismiss it the way you have (and I have). But, the faithful on the McCain side have another negative "label" to attach to Obama (to add to marxist, one man sleeper cell, baby killer, anti-american - all which I personally have heard from actual voters). But, will it play positively or negatively with the undecideds? There are still some left out there.

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iVote:

@ political_junki

I think people increasingly don't want to be affiliated with either party, and more people are identifying themselves as Independents. Notice how Republican ID didn't go up though.

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OneAngryDwarf:

On the Obama aunt thing.

I have 4 aunts that live in different parts of the country. I haven't spoken to any of them in years, does that make me a bad person? Should I know every detail of what they are doing in their lives? If they are engaged in ongoing criminal activity is that somehow my fault?

This guilt by association thing that the McCain campaign seems to like to run with is ridiculous. I think that we are looking at pretty hard numbers this near to the election day and most of those number are upwards of 50% of the popular vote for Obama. To me that means that people who like Obama are going to vote for him, and they currently outnumber those that don't like him.

Early voting is going very strong and stuff like this just doesn't stick to someone people like. If he was John Kerry or Al Gore maybe, but Obama is likeable and people don't believe it when you say mean things about people they like. Think about Reagan and Clinton. Both men were extremely popular even when they were under investigation for some pretty rotten things. In summary:

Likeability = Teflon Status.

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political_junki:

iVote:
I could see that if the period between 2 polls was atleast a couple of weeks, but in 2 days?

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MNLatteLiberal:

Obama's aunt story is a non-starter, imho, AND it comes a little too late to make any difference. With the early voting numbers in key battlegrounds where they are (all # bases on the 2004 returns; two-thirds already voted in NC, nearing that in Nevada, > half in Georgia, nearing half in Florida, etc.) this story CANNOT get any legs.

It also reeks of boom-like or southern angler-like desperation - "i know this guy whose aunt deep inside the Obama campaign" rhetoric is not going to play.

Also, immigration issue is not a McCain strong suit. It echos the PLO story they tried to spin in FL over last week among Jewish voters: when McCain points a finger on Khalili (sp?), the other four hundred forty thousand fingers are pointing straight back at J-Mac. Same with immigration.

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maddiekat:

Reasearch 2000 Iowa O 53 M 39 Huh I thought the McCain Camp said it was a dead heat. I can not believe that they would lie. Lol

University of WI Wisconson O 52 M 42

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iVote:

I'd say either McCain/Palin's "liberal supermajority" fearmongering is working, or it's just noise.

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DCDemocrat:

I think the variations in Rasmussen's number for McCain's number is complete noise. 46-47-46 is a rounding phenomenon. I bet McCain's number is hoving around 46.5--sometimes it rounds up, and sometimes it rounds down.

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eugene:

Fox news in the neo-cons,have been going non-stop all this morning about Obamas Aunt,but i think it might back fire on Mccain because if the gop in fox news continue to talk about this,the higher Obama numbers goes up with the latinos

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OneAngryDwarf:

What is up with this country that we have to wait 8-10 hours to vote?

Like a freakin' poll tax where you've got to take the entire day off of work to go and exercise the most fundamental right you've got as an American. Are all of the polls showing lines like that or are they just in predominantly Democratic areas?

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merveilleux:

@MNLatteLiberal:

Good point on the lateness. With the exception of the die-hard Obama supporters, almost everyone I know isn't doing anything remotely election-related this weekend. I don't think this story is going to pop up on most people's radar at all. Given time and circulation, yeah, but there isn't any.

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Mister H.:

McPlanecrash knows this and will steer clear (I think).


HE might...but Palin won't. Keep in mind that this is the same person who has had no problems calling Obama a terrorist, socialist, and other terms for a shady character.

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DecaturMark:

This election process has been going on for a long time and the American people are worried about their jobs, mortgages, food budgets and children's future; they will dismiss these negative attacks as a tactic to scare them. They want someone with solutions not negative attacks about the other candidate.

I was listening to NPR this morning; a first time voter said something that was very insightful. He said that he is voting for Obama because he thought that since Obama had 2 young children, that he would work hard to make sure that his children grow up in a safe and prosperous America. It was a unique response to why he went with Obama.

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Thatcher:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081101/ap_on_el_pr/obama_aunt;_ylt=AkiMNhKvhfDH0UIJgy4qNlKyFz4D

CHICAGO – Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama says he didn't know that one of his relatives was living in the United States illegally and believes the appropriate laws should be followed.

Can we get back to polls, now?

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Thatcher

Thank for posting that. No drama Obama strikes again! Don't let them dominiate the news cycle while you fail to respond. Get an intelligent response out there as fast as possible and they are left holding their limp noodles.

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Thatcher:

@Decatur Mark -

Though I am for Obama for many reasons. Being a father of a 2-1/2 year old daughter myself - I truly pay attention to parents and their interaction with their children. I can't think of a president since JFK who has such a strong, close relationship with his children.

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timontheleft:

@OneAngryDwarf

After the lines here (ATL) were so long on Friday the gov was asked about extending early voting hours his response was basically that people shouldn't have procrastinated!

Unbelievable.

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Thatcher:

@timontheleft --

They are procrastinating? They are voting early! LOL

See, that kind of comment should be a red-flag to the DOJ that they need to get down there and monitor those polls.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@timontheleft

GA Governor Sonny Perdue

Republican...

Why am I not suprised by this. Do you happen to have a link to that comment about "procrastination?"

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illinoisindie:

Okay time for a Pause…. In the unlikely event that Obama loses Penn and the cataclysmic 1000 year cosmic event that Obama loses both PA & NH, he still has many possible paths to victory which include:

Kerry –NH –PA = 252-25 = 227
Obama’s more than likely pick ups include: IA + NM + VA = 7+5+13 =25 Obama back at 252

There are many likely paths to the nomination after that to get the 18 votes
OH (20) (yes Obama will win at least one of OHIO or FL my money is on FL for diversity sake)
FL (27)
NC + CO= 15 + 9 =24
MO+CO=11+9=20
And the list goes on for a few more iterations check 538 for the probabilities. The point being, that people really need to stop worrying. Obama is not a cutesy by half person. He has been playing war (strategy game) all election and his campaign knows what they are doing. Take PA for what it is a media narrative to provide some “fire-drill” coverage for a couple of days and Take Obama’s AZ ad buy for what it is a “perceptions game”….. NO he is not going to win AZ (and if he does… yes I will eat my shorts while asking McCain to retire from politics).

Anyway, I’m glad that Zogby (a friend? to the Obama campaign) is guarding the democrats against complacency. While us junkies in here see every published and unpublished poll everyday, most Americans don’t , they hear what is in the media narrative…”McCain closing” good news…great news. So people can ask themselves the question again… do I really want Palin in the Whitehouse if it really is this close.

As for Obama’s aunt, as usual, McCain’s timing is awful …. McCain would have shined in an immigration discussion. Another display of questionable judgment while McCain maybe a great soldier, he’s an awful leader (especially strategically) … maybe that’s what Powell saw and it scared the daylights out of him…

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BarackO'Clinton:

If this is the October Surprise, it's pretty weak.

I hope McOldman goes after her - how damaging will it be to see the right wing wingnuts go after some little old lady?

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Thatcher:

@illinoisindie -

re: immigration.

McCain has NO leg to stand on with immigration. Yes, he co-sponsored immigration legislation a little while ago - but in the Republican primary he stated he now wouldn't support his own bill.

He has flip-flopped on just about every major issue he ever held an advantage in. He has no honor this cycle - only opportunism.

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timontheleft:

@OneAngryDwarf

It was a news report on the local news last night. I can't seem to find a video clip of it on their web site (www.11alive.com)

@Thatcher

In fairness it was in response to a question about the lines being so much longer on Friday than previous days . . . but your point is still well taken. He has done/said anything he can to make voting harder.

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CapeCodDem:

As many have said on these boards the last few days, and as Peter Hart points out, don't look at the polls for the state of the race, look at where the candidates and their surrogates are appearing and where the ad money is being spent. I have a lot of faith in Plouffe and Axelrod and if they aren't sending BO back to PA (although they are sending Hillary there), then I guess I have to continue to trust that they know what they are doing. Clearly, they think that there are a bunch of ways to 270.

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CapeCodDem:

Research 2000 has Obama ahead in Iowa by 14 (53-39)! So much for Rick Davis saying McCain was tied in the state!

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Thatcher:

@CapeCodDem:

There was no way Obama was going to lose in Iowa - for many reasons. An ancillary reason is that Iowa was Obama's first win in 2008. With all the talk this year about rescheduling the Democratic Primary/caucuses - Iowans don't want to lose their first in the nation status because of the notoriety and $$$ it brings to this state. With an Obama win - in the minds of those involved within Iowa - it only confirms that Iowa should remain first as it can catapult any competent candidate with a good grassroots effort into the White House.

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Zeidan:

Looks like Obama's gaining back his ground today... let's see if he keeps it up by Tuesday.

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flamelpa:

Regarding voting in Georgia, here's an interesting article. No quote mentioned from the Gov., but does mention the interplay between the DOJ and the voting officials. 35% voted early.

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/10/30/early_vote_atlanta.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab

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enadknock:

i am more cynical about the gop's "end justifies the means" philosophy of campaigning and vote fraud. for example:

1. the white house this past week tried to disenfranchise democratic voters in ohio.

2. republican state election officials may attempt the same a la 2000 florida.

3. the bradley/new hampshire effect on pollsters.

the electoral math looks good but i won't stop taking pepto bismo until wednesday's results confirms the polls.

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Schill:

Unless Gallup poll is outrageously wrong--Obama lead is now 10 in the traditional poll--So Obama is on his way to victory for sure, and the early vote lead is so wide the 72 hours republican machine turn-out might terminator's help to catch up--The Amazing race begins.

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thoughtful:

There appears to be no other conclusion to draw from the polls other than the majority of American voters repudiation of John McCain, Sarah palin and the Republican Party.

390+EVs - this is turning into a rout, certainly shaping up to be a landslide victory of historic proportions.

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chgo1:

Re: 8-10 lines in GA. God bless these people for standing in line! It's a damn shame in this country that they have to wait that long to exercise their RIGHT to vote. I am willing to bet that the GOP areas of Atlanta don't have 8-10 hr lines. This is so wrong and it really pisses me off!

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enadknock:

yet, another wrinkle. i just learned that maine and nebraska do not cast their electoral votes winner-take all like the other 48 states. they allocate their electorals district by district. in an extremely tight, though unlikely, scenario, could omaha or kennebunkport decide the election?

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