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US: Obama 52, McCain 38 (Pew-10/23-26)

Topics: PHome

Pew Research Center
10/23-26/08; 1,198 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 53, McCain 38

 

Comments
decided:

landslide

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NorthernObserver:

It's probably an outlier, but by gosh it's a comforting outlier. Think I'll have a scotch later today. :-)

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vercordio:

As a firm Obama supporter, this sounds a bit high. However, just for sake of comparison, Pew's final poll in 2004 returned Bush 51%, Kerry 48% - dead on accurate.

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chesirecat47:

Socialist Pollster.

Fail. Next

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NorthernObserver:

Okay, it the 15 point Pew is an Obama outlier, and the 3 point IDB is a McCain outlier; the truth lies in the average -- that's a mere 9 point Obama lead! Two scotches!!

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AdamSC:

The huge lead for Obama in this poll is probably a little bit far fetched but perhaps not that far from the truth.

I'll take this poll and the GWU poll, neglect them. The in between lead would be 6-7% spread for Obama.

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platanoman:

Mcccain SURGE!!!

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Dan:

I like these kind of outliers. they make me feel all warm and fuzzy.

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Northeastern Republican:

ver - the counter argument to that is that the IBD poll was the most accurate of 2004.

I think all the polls are using very different sampling sizes because everyone thinks they have the turnout figured out. We'll find out who was right though in a week!

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JCK:

I think Obama support is probably dead on. McCain support is low.

I would not be surprised Obama to win 53-46, with 1% going to 3rd parties.

That would be consistent with this poll, as well as the tracking polls (on average).

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jamesia:

Probably an outlier, although they were accurate in 2004.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

It is seriously time to ignore the National polls and keep an eye on the state polls.

Did anyone notice Fl and OH getting more blue and NC getting less so?

NM, IA, CO, VA = 270+

Don't think MO, IN, NC will hang on, likely revert back to red.

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Atomique:

Socialist? Evidence please?

Pew Research is a corporation. Like all other corporations, they are interested in making money. I thought that was called capitalism. I must have missed the part where they're trying to bring down their own corporation by overthrowing the whole capitalist economic system via proletarian revolution to achieve a classless society wherein workers control the means of production directly.

Oh wait, I forgot, Republicans have no clue what socialism is, because they have no clue how economics works.

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Amongst RV, Obama is +16, so it doesn't seem the LV model is to blame. And looking at the demographic breakdown, everything looks legit. So my guess is that this is a sampling issue--not to use "issue" in a pejorative sense. These results are basically solid, probably within the margin of error of the actual distribution, so I think it's worth taking heart from.

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AdamSC:

@Northeastern Republican

Your wrong, IBD wasn't the most accurate poll in 2004.

Pew had it Bush 52% Kerry 49% during the final week of 2004.

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Knyght:

I hate to agree with Boom, but this one smells a little fishy...

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Boris_Dieter:

@EVERYONE

PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING FROM FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM THEN STOP HANGING OUT AND GET IN TOUCH WITH THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN AND START CALLING.

Nate Silver (Yesterday): If the national polls are tightening, there is no evidence of it in the state numbers. If the national tracking polls moved at all today, they moved slightly in McCain's direction, as he gained ground in the Rasmussen and Research 2000 polls, whereas the other six trackers were essentially flat. However, there has really been no sign of tightening in the state polls.

Our model places more emphasis on state polling, and there's a pretty good reason why: they give us a lot more data to look at. Today's for instance, there were 3,539 "fresh" interviews conducted (e.g. those that were not already accounted for in previous' days tracking polls) between eight national polls that we added to our database. By contrast, there were 22,881 fresh interviews conducted between 31 new state polls.

If the state polls aren't showing movement toward McCain, then it is probably the case that any perceived movement in the national polls is sampling noise. If anything, in fact, the state polls are showing movement toward Obama on balance, not just in battleground states like Virginia, but also in non-battlegrounds as diverse as New York, Oklahoma, Oregon and Arizona.

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straight talk:

NOT SO FAS MY FRIENDS WHO THINK NC WILL AUTOMATICALLY GO BACK! OBAMA USUALLY DOES BETTER THAN HIS AVERAGES IN THE SOUTHERN STATES! DO NO SLEEP ON AA TURNOUT!

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decided:

well,
if it is an outlier, all recent pew polls must be called outliers. I'm also agreeing Obama's lead is somewhere at +7. the pollsters have serious difficulties accounting for -maybe- higher turnout of younger people.

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richardkreed:

Why, this poll probably understates the nearly 100% support nationalwide for Lord Obama. So there is no need for any more Democrats to go vote.

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boomshak:

The most laugh-worthy poll of the season. 15 points?

Pathetic. Surprised they weren't embarrased to publish this. There is no other national or state poll that comes close to confirming this steaming pile.

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[nemesis]:

In convo with Playbook, a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description, calling her “a whack job.”

HAHA, AWESOME!!

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Boris_Dieter:

Tightening in national polls, if not statistical noise, is due to increased support in red states and some tightening in states where, despite that, McCain has no chance (e.g., NY; Illinois; California). So end of story. Start calling and work to increase that Obama turnout.

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JCK:

I think Pew is not pushing "undecideds" very hard, and unenthusiastic McCain supporters are being registered as undecided.

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mandalorianarmy:

Keep in mind that Pew is one of the few pollsters to call cell phone onlys.

I think this is an outlier but its good to have outliers on this side instead of the other.

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DTM:

Again, I more or less endorse Nate Silver's take on Pew, which is that it is not an outlier, but does represent something of a best-case scenario for Obama in terms of methodology. Basically, Pew is apparently focused on just getting the demographics (including cell phone usage) of its sample correct, then letting the political results fall as they may.

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platanoman:

Boomshak, where's the socialist surge?

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thoughtful:

Well I have it 53% - 41% so this poll is quite conceivable particularly as its more current methodology.

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Chester:

One of Mac's guys just called Palin a "whack job."

There goes another news cycle for McCain... David Gergen is going to have a frustrated seizure on AC36o tonight!

I wouldn't feel as good about this if I respected Mac and his campaign, but he has squandered his honour and his campaign is openly insulting their VP candidate. This is not a campaign between 2 honourable men.

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jeric:

@ Knyght

You're probably right, but it sure is fun to see McSurge folks rattled by this poll. Of course they're going to dismiss it as BS, but you know that deep down they were hoping this poll would show a significant tightening. They might still call Pew a socialist pollster (what does that even mean? Do they redistribute leads?) but then we'd hear about how even the socialist pollsters show McCain closing.

Either way, the strategy for us remains the same: get out, knock on doors, call some people, and most of all, VOTE!

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boomshak:

@[nemesis]:

In convo with Playbook, a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description, calling her “a whack job.”

Wait, lemme guess. Another "un-named senior advisor"?

Well I just heard from an "un-named senior Obama advisor" they are doing lines of coke on the Obama bus.

THE REAL QUESTION:
Why the f*ck would a "Senior McCain Advisor" be calling his VP choice a "whack job" publicly one week before an election?

I mean seriously, what possible rational could there be for this "senior advisor" to be reading from the MSM playbook?

No, not possible.

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Centrist_Dem:

The margin on this poll is obviously high, but look more closely at the actual numbers: the margin is too high because McCain is implausibly low, not because Obama is implausibly high. Pew has Obama at 52%, nicely in line with other polls. McCain at 38% is obviously out of whack, but probably reflects Pew finding Obama support much firmer than McCain's, which again makes sense given many pollster's recent numbers on enthusiasm levels. So, an outlier in margin, yes, but a plausible number for Obama.

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Boris_Dieter:

@boomshak

Well, the PEW poll is hard to believe and I don't. I do agree completely with Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, though. Erratic Man and Sow with Lipstick are done if you look at the state polling data. Period. End of story. Practice some etiquette for your role as the loyal opposition. Now I must say adieu, mon ami, while I make my calls.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak umm no other poll to confirm? Well ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX NEWS, Gallop, all have Obama up around 10 or more.

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thoughtful:

boom let me guess..... because Sarah is a whack job?

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fed:

This is from ARG
"While the national ballot has remained unchanged since the last week of September, Barack Obama continues to gain electoral votes. Obama now leads in 30 states with a total of 375 electoral votes and John McCain leads in 21 states with a total of 163 electoral votes."

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mirrorball:

Pew Research is a corporation

http://pewresearch.org/about/

"The Center is a non-profit, tax-exempt corporation which operates under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Service code. It was established in 2004 as a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, a Philadelphia-based public charity."

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boomshak:

@Chester:

One of Mac's guys just called Palin a "whack job."

Ok, WHO? Who the f*ck is this "unnamed senior advisor"?

I am so f*cking sick of these "unnamed advisors" saying exactly what the MSM wants them to say a week before an election. Face it people, they don't exist.

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[nemesis]:

boomshak:

It's far more plausible than most of the crap that you post here from other nut-job sites.

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NW Patrick:

McCain adviser calls Palin "a whack job"
11:37 | 28/10/2008
Mike Allen
Politico "Playbook"

In today's Playbook, Mike Allen reported the following:

***In convo with Playbook, a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description, calling her “a whack job.”

More details on the turmoil with in the McCain campaign will be forthcoming

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DaveAustralia:

wow this is huge if even close to being true and with obamas speech on wednesday he could really swing some of those undecided towards. Looking like a 55-45 win in the popular vote here and electoral landslide that sees montana, north Dakota, georgia and maybe even Arizona going blue. It can happen people

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NW Patrick:

It's over.

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Kile Thomson:

McCain Surge Continues.. !!!

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Scott W:

McCain advisors ran an waful campaign... but that does not mean they are dumb enough to think they have a shot at winning. Former Romney McCain aids are wanting to expose Palin NOW as the reason they lost. That gives Romney the lead for 2012. It makes total sense they are abandoning grandpa and positioning thmesleves to work for a viable candidate - Romney, in 2012. Palin IS a wchack job... no question about it.

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boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

boomshak umm no other poll to confirm? Well ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX NEWS, Gallop, all have Obama up around 10 or more.

In this City of Idiots, you are Mayor.

Gallup is 5 points amongst LV's (not the bullsh*t 'expanded' version which assumes 66% turnout). Those other polls are rediculous MSM bullsh*t (no Fox Poll in a week). Believe those at your own peril.

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NW Patrick:

Umm Palin is a wake job. Just ask the polls.

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Scott W:

McCain advisors ran an awful campaign... but that does not mean they are dumb enough to think they have a shot at winning. Former Romney supporters who are now McCain aids are wanting to expose Palin NOW as the reason they lost. That gives Romney the lead for 2012. It makes total sense they are abandoning grandpa and positioning thmesleves to work for a viable candidate - Romney, in 2012. Palin IS a wchack job... no question about it.

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AdamSC:

@Boomshak

LOL again, this is like the 5th LOL you have gained from me today.


It's blatantly obvious that the "source" won't be revealed because they don't want to ruin their republican reputation. People are venting at the McCain campaign, calling up people like John King and other various reporters who have inside connections like that.

After Nov. 4th, the real blame game will begin and people will come out of the woodworks against McSame and Plain.

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Scott W:

McCain advisors ran an waful campaign... but that does not mean they are dumb enough to think they have a shot at winning. Former Romney McCain aids are wanting to expose Palin NOW as the reason they lost. That gives Romney the lead for 2012. It makes total sense they are abandoning grandpa and positioning thmesleves to work for a viable candidate - Romney, in 2012. As we all know now...Palin IS a whack job... no question about it if you have an IQ above 60.

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sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "I am so f*cking sick of these "unnamed advisors" saying exactly what the MSM wants them to say a week before an election. Face it people, they don't exist."

Wait 7 days and you will get the names out as well....my sources tell me they are mostly Romney guys who are now working on McCain's campaign!

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Obama008:

@Boom

Nicole Wallace.


By the way it seems that Mitt's camp is the one hurting McCain. Its Mitt's old camp that is coming out with all this stuff. They want McCain to lose and palin not to stand a chance in 2012.

Its a good play by Mitt 2012.

I could have voted for Mitt. But this is the first time Im voting for a Dem.

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JCK:

I'm laying down my bets based on these polls.

At this point (and barring dead girl/live boy scenarios), it looks like worst case is Obama 51-48. Best case is probably 55-44, and most likely is 52-47.

Given his electoral college position, I don't think it will be close (with Kerry + IA + NM + VA and CO) going Obama under the worst case scenario).

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boomshak:

Mike Allen at Politico? Now there's an unbiased source, lol.

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DTM:

People working for campaigns that aren't going so well often start leaking negative stories to the press down the stretch. Basically, they are trying to pre-spin the explanation of why their candidate might lose, and they are doing that for their own personal professional interests. For example, a person strongly associated with creating McCain's strategy might try to pin the blame for a loss on Palin not executing that strategy faithfully, because that would be an indirect way of defending their own personal role in creating that strategy.

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NW Patrick:

boomshak you're the **** head. You HONESTLY believe turn out will be exactly like '04? LOL WOW! DENIAL. Like being in denial that McCain made a bad choice in Palin:) Love ya.

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Thatcher:

@Northeastern Republican

2004 Results
Bush 50.7
Kerry 48.3
Nader .4

Pew Research (1925 LV)
10/27 - 10/30
Bush 51%
Kerry 48%

TIPP (1041 LV)
10/30 - 11/1
Bush 50.1%
Kerry 48.0%

TIPP
B -.6
K -.3

PEW
B +.3
K -.3

Seems to me PEW was more accurate in 2004 than TIPP. Anyone can say they were the most accurate ... it's up to you to check the facts.

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mandalorianarmy:

Calling Politico left leaning is a joke. By your definition what isn't left leaning?

Is it just down to the Washington Times and Fox News now?

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Dewey1858:

"Ok, WHO? Who the f*ck is this "unnamed senior advisor"?"

Maybe Charles Fried - oh no, that's right, he already officially abandoned the USS Whack Job.

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Chester:

@ Boomshak,

" I am so f*cking sick of these "unnamed advisors" saying exactly what the MSM wants them to say a week before an election. Face it people, they don't exist. "

Do you really want to become a conspiracist, Boom? Do you really want to put yourself one step away from the gun-totting Oklahoma militias who think that the government orchestrated 9/11 to take their guns away? Do you really want to go there?

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NW Patrick:

GO MITT! Run in '012 you SLIME BALL closet liberal! HA!

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Grummy1971:

I have been working on the construction of the all new 'Boomometer' - an election forecast model to rival that of socialist baseball terrorist, Nate '538' Silver. The one failure in his model, as I see it, is that it does not have a Boomshak (tm) FAILsafe mechanism, that engages everytime the gap in any poll is wider than 2% points in favour of ANY Democratic candidate. The Boomshak (tm) FAILsafe mechanism should be turned up spectacularly high if there is ANY hint of un-Americanism regarding the Democratic candidate in question. Polls are therefore only legitimate if and when they demonstrate a proper, pro-American, capitalistic bias. This poll, regardless of whether the pollster in question has a good record, correctly predicted Bush's victory in the previous election, and is renowned the world over as a blue chip social research agency has FAILED.

The Boomometer is available from all good retailers for $9.99 - although I am sure we'll be giving them away from November 5th

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rosh400:

Pew is one of the most respected survey research firms around and its director Andrew Kohut is top notch. With that said, surveys use sampling methods and statistical inference, hence the margins of error. However, just because the margin is high, it should not automatically be dismissed as an outlier.

A few other observations. Pew is not a corporation. It is non-profit and funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts.

Not being a daily tracking poll, Pew can take a bit more care in constructing its sample and having better quality control in general.

Obama supporters should take nothing for granted and get out and work. I have canvassed in VA for four Saturdays and will be out gain this Saturday and Election Day. Fight every day and fight hard. Never give up.

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boomshak:

MIKE ALLEN AT POLITICO IS 100% OBAMA PARTISAN:

Why the hell would a "Senior McCain Advisor" be making critical remarks about Palin to him?

No way. Complete lying bullsh*t.

"Hi, I'm a Senior McCain Advisor. I'm going to go have a talk with a hardcore left-wing hack and disparage my candidate's running mate a week before the election!"

Sure.

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DecaturMark:

I have a different take on the latest #s in states like GA, NC, VA and other traditionally red states that are toss up or leaners. In past election cycles, those voters who live in these "Red" states had no real incentive to think their vote mattered on a national scale, and were only motivated to vote for local reasons. Many times these local reasons were not enough to get a lot of people to the polls. Now, fast forward to 2008, the "Red" states now have a chance of turning "Blue" and those voters who felt as though their vote meant nothing, are excited about the prospect of change. We are seeing this in the states that have early voting (NC, GA and FL as well as others). There is a movement here that is not showing up in the tracking polls or state polls. It does not bode well for the Republicans. Those who do not live in one of these states might not see it, but in GA, NC and VA it is palpable. We see this as an opportunity to matter and we are not going to pass on the chance.

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thoughtful:

@Thatcher

best time to catch boomshak lucid is between 5 and 7 am. After that I don't know what happens he seems to lose a few nuts, bolts and screws as the day goes on. Maybe medication.

It may well be as every day these polls just get worse and worse for him - the Rasmussen one normally finishes him off recently though he's even been holding out for the Kos and comparing the traditional LV Gallup - that's going to change up shortly!

Again

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NextAmericanChapter:

@ NW Patrick:
@ nemesis

A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE PALIN KERFUFFLE

This in-fighting and name-calling could be the McCain campaign’s way of trying to “pull a Hillary”. Over the weekend we had ‘diva’ and today we have ‘whackjob’. Perhaps they think that they can get women to rally around a fellow sister who’s under assault.

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Thatcher:

@Northeastern Republican

and if you used only the head-to-head polls ... Rasmussen wins in 2004:

Rasmussen (3,000 LV)
10/30 - 11/1
B 50.2%
K 48.5%

TIPP (936 LV)
10/30 - 11/1
B 46.9%
K 44.3%

Ras:
B -.5
K +.3

TIPP:
B -3.8
K -4.0

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straight talk:

@ McCAIN SUPPORTERS

WHAT POLL SHOWS YOUR CANDIDATE WINNING? FOR THOSE OF YOU HOPING FOR PA! GIVE IT UP! THE CLOSES THAT McCAIN WILL CLOSE THAT GAP IS 5% IN THE KEYSTONE STATE! WHY IS THERE INFIGHTING GOIG ON IN THE McCAIN CAMPAIGN? COULD IT BE THAT THEIR INTERNAL POLLS ARE SHOWING THEM THAT THEY ARE IN REAL TROUBLE? PALIN IS A DIVA? PALIN IS A WHACK JOB?

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Hope Reborn:

W00T!!!!

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Angus Mc:

Sample is too Democratic to be reliable. Buried deep is their partisan breakdown: D39%, R24%. I don't think the D voting advantage is going to be that high. I expect a D voter turnout advantage of about 7% this year, so a more realistic estimate from this poll is about Obama +7, which would be right in line with other polls.

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NW Patrick:

Boom guess what? There goes another news cycle talking about McCain infighting! ROFL GOD I LOVE IT! McCain's only executive decision was to pick this AWFUL VP. Smiling big time here. Alot of people are really SCARED of her Boom.

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Man, Boom**** BETTER be on here on election night. I want to throw 6 months of his idiotic quotes back in his face and see him defend his paranoid delusions about how every single poll that doesn't confirm what he already believes is "biased" or made-up.

Of course he won't be here, he'll be too busy drowning his sorrows in gin and angrily masturbating to Milton Friedman's "Essay in Positive Economics."

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abraxaf:

@boomshak

Those other polls are rediculous MSM bullsh*t

This is completely idiotic. Why would it be to the "MSM's" advantage to show the race as wider than it really is? The closer the horse race, the more people are interested, and the more people buy newspapers/watch news, etc.. If the mainstream media was distorting their polls, they would be making it look closer than it is. And if anyone is doing that, it's Zogby, who is basically sucking at Drudge's teat by using outdated partisan ID weighting from 2004.

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jazz:

@boomshak:

first:
pew was dead on in 2004, with their last poll having bush 51, and kerry 48.

second:
newseek O+12, CBS/NYT, O+13, recent ABC/WP tracking O+11.
all these are essentially the same results given the moe.

third:
you are intellectually dishonest.

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AB:

Early voting in NC as of 7:30 am this morning:
1,412,113 voters (22.70% of registered voters)
771,549 Dems (54.64%)
396,112 Repubs (28.05%)
396,174 AA (28.06%)

There are 6,220,485 registered voters in NC
Dem 45.67%
Repub 32.02%
AA 22%
Huge enthusiasm gap in who is going to the polls.

Interestingly, Dems are continuing to increase (ever so slightly) there registration advantage on a day to day basis. This is because with one-stop voting you can register and vote in person in the county that you live in until Saturday Nov 1. Dems are doing this. Repubs are not (as much).

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jamesugw:

NW Patrick - it's true. This election will be remembered for McCain two awful moments of judgement: a) Sarah Palin, and b) his suspension of the campaign. Woeful!

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mattn:

Not to kill anyone's fun watching every little blip of the polls (who was it who called Rasmussen "polling crack"?) but read this and then log off the site for a few days:

Variability: This is a race of considerable variability in various organization's estimates of what should be the same quantity. And at the same time I have never seen such stability in my estimates of the daily lead. A typical day sees about ten organizations report an Obama lead varying between 1 and 14 points. Thirteen points difference is a lot, more than double what would be expected from sampling fluctuation alone. This arises chiefly, it appears, from two sources, (1) initial assumptions about the partisan makeup of the electorate, and (2) varying likely voter assumptions. Both are probably more ambiguous than usual this year. Democratic party identification is trending upward this year. In that context it is harder than in a more stable environment to know what the right numbers are. Any old assumptions will very likely be wrong, as would the practice of just forcing the sample to have equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, which used to be employed, and maybe still is, by the Battleground poll. Turnout projection is especially difficult this year because the Obama campaign intends to turn out huge numbers of young and African-American voters who are traditional nonvoters. A model that assumes traditional patterns will be wrong if the campaign succeeds and right if it fails. Figuring out the quality of the two sides ground games is beyond the normal expertise of pollsters.

Stability: When all the polls are combined to form daily estimates, it is the opposite fact that is most striking. Despite all that daily variation, Barak Obama has held a lead over John McCain of about 7 points over more than a month with virtually no daily variation. In my metric of the two-party vote division, the Obama lead of about 53.5 is just locked between 53 and 54 day after day after day. The organizations that do really large samples are reporting the same fact, remarkable continuity of day to day estimates, as if the race has been frozen since late September. Tracking polls with smaller samples are reporting trends, back and forth, which, while entertaining, appear to be quite false.

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MichaelJason:

Boomshak is showing signs of an angry loser who wants to go down in flames rather then with dignity.

____________________

It's time to stop referring to Zogby as a pollster and call that organization what it is: an advertising wing of the RNC, generating horse**** poll numbers to use in fund-raising letters so the GOP base can fool themselves about what is about to happen.

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NHBlue:

Another poll to consider:

"The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 38 in October from an upwardly revised reading of 61.4 in September.

Last month's decline brings the index to its lowest level since its inception in 1967."

So what's scarier? So-called socialism or Republican fiscal ideology?

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boomshak:

DON'T BE SURPRISED IF YOU DON'T SEE THIS ONE IN THE MSM ANYWHERE:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031943.html

Sources: Sarkozy views Obama stance on Iran as 'utterly immature'

By Barak Ravid

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is very critical of U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama's positions on Iran, according to reports that have reached Israel's government.

Sarkozy has made his criticisms only in closed forums in France. But according to a senior Israeli government source, the reports reaching Israel indicate that Sarkozy views the Democratic candidate's stance on Iran as "utterly immature" and comprised of "formulations empty of all content."

Obama visited Paris in July, and the Iranian issue was at the heart of his meeting with Sarkozy. At a joint press conference afterward, Obama urged Iran to accept the West's proposal on its nuclear program, saying that Iran was creating a serious situation that endangered both Israel and the West.
Advertisement

According to the reports reaching Israel, Sarkozy told Obama at that meeting that if the new American president elected in November changed his country's policy toward Iran, that would be "very problematic."

Until now, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany have tried to maintain a united front on Iran. But according to the senior Israeli source, Sarkozy fears that Obama might "arrogantly" ignore the other members of this front and open a direct dialogue with Iran without preconditions.

Following their July meeting, Sarkozy repeatedly expressed disappointment with Obama's positions on Iran, concluding that they were "not crystallized, and therefore many issues remain open," the Israeli source said. Advisors to the French president who held separate meetings with Obama's advisors came away with similar impressions and expressed similar disappointment.

According to the Israeli source, Sarkozy plans to begin intensive negotiations with the new American administration, regardless of whether it is headed by Obama or Republican Sen. John McCain, even before the new president takes office in January, with the goal of persuading him to continue the current policy on Iran.

But Sarkozy's pessimism does not stem only from Obama's stance; it also stems from the overall behavior of the international community toward Iran's nuclear program, and particularly its inability to agree on a fourth round of Security Council sanctions against the Islamic Republic. This foot-dragging will make it impossible to effect a change in Iran's nuclear policy, Sarkozy believes.

The French intelligence community believes that Iran has already obtained about 40 percent of the enriched uranium it would need for its first bomb, and that at its current rate, it will obtain the rest of the uranium it needs in the spring or summer of 2009.

However, French agencies are divided over what Iran is likely to do once it has this uranium. One view is that the Iranians will immediately make a nuclear bomb, in order to demonstrate their capability. The other is that Iran will continue enriching uranium without making a bomb - at least until it has enough enriched uranium for several bombs.

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NW Patrick:

WOW BOOM! What's going on in NC? Seems your ass is getting kicked!

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Louis:

this is not really an outlier as the Obama number is preety much were it has been with the others.
Of the the undecideds figure 60% + will go to MCCainn but that is irrelevant if Obama is already over 50%. Only question tha really is open is size of Obama victory which I think will be 4-7% with a small chance that it could be as high as 10%.

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thoughtful:

boomshak

Care to comment:

AB:
Early voting in NC as of 7:30 am this morning:
1,412,113 voters (22.70% of registered voters)
771,549 Dems (54.64%)
396,112 Repubs (28.05%)
396,174 AA (28.06%)

There are 6,220,485 registered voters in NC
Dem 45.67%
Repub 32.02%
AA 22%
Huge enthusiasm gap in who is going to the polls.

Interestingly, Dems are continuing to increase (ever so slightly) there registration advantage on a day to day basis. This is because with one-stop voting you can register and vote in person in the county that you live in until Saturday Nov 1. Dems are doing this. Repubs are not (as much).

Posted on October 28, 2008 12:15 PM

____________________

NW Patrick:

boomshak NO ONE reads your posted right wing articles. Just so you know. Anyone else agree?

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Boomshak

they don't exist

You refuse to acknowledge the civil war that's going on in your party just like you refused to acknowledge the civil war that was raging in Iraq.

Here's a lesson:

McCain = Sunni's because he's not in line with the majority or the base. He's currently a part of the minority in his party. He's losing power with each passing day.

McCain Advisor = Comical Ali . . . goes out there and spins everything to make it look like McCain's in charge.

Palin = Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shiite radical . . . She's a religious nut job whose base happens to control the party.

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abraxaf:

boomshak, didn't you just reject a story from Politico out of hand because it used unnamed sources? You can't even be intellectually consistent in the space of five minutes.

____________________

boomshak:

@NW Patrick:

Boom guess what? There goes another news cycle talking about McCain infighting! ROFL GOD I LOVE IT!

Based upon a complete lie made up by a leftw-ing blogger. Your whole party is a lie.

____________________

jazz:

@boomshak:

sarkozy is a right-wing numnut just like mccain & palin and their bff bush. surprise, surprise, they see things the exact same way. all others, except necons, want the us to talk to iran.

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NW Patrick:

Good Bye GOP. Can you say A DECADE? I won't miss you.

____________________

carl29:

Another proof of how good McMaverick is doing?

Indiana poll shows tight McCain-Obama race
By The Associated Press – 7 minutes ago

THE POLL: South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV, presidential race in Indiana among likely voters (11 electoral votes).

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 48 percent, John McCain 47 percent.

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jamesugw:

Boom?! Have you gone totally mad?! You're calling the President of FRANCE to your aid? Have a long lie down, please - do it now.

____________________

Aristotle:

Someone please explain to me how one would know if a pollster was the most correct all polling season like people claim to be the case for IBD. The only time you would know if you are correct would be if your last poll matched the results.

How would you know, for istance, that your poll was correct 2 weeks earlier. There is no way to know that. I don't believe one can make the case that a particular poll was MOST correct over time. Only at the end of the process.

Am I thinking correctly?

____________________

BoomzAnAss:

Boomshak + Sarah Palin = two whack jobs

Don't you just love it!!!! The wheels are coming off the Straight Talk Express bus!

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

You know, the only real poll of interest today is the SUSA poll in OH. Steady in OH. If the buckeye and keystone states throw 41EVs to BO, no other remotely close state matters (not even PA) and that looks likely. Frankly, OH and FL polls are the only ones that even pique my interest anymore.

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MichaelJason:

Boom was against France, before he was for them!

LOLOLOL

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abraxaf:

Wait, lemme guess. Another "un-named senior advisor"?

Well I just heard from an "un-named senior Obama advisor" they are doing lines of coke on the Obama bus.

---

But according to a senior Israeli government source, the reports reaching Israel indicate that Sarkozy views the Democratic candidate's stance on Iran as "utterly immature" and comprised of "formulations empty of all content."

boomshak, do you accept journalism that uses anonymous sources or not? make up your damn mind!

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

Oh man Boom is getting advice from the French. I thought Repubs hated the French?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Down in INDIANA? WOW! HAHAHA!

____________________

carl29:

More proof of how good McMaverick is doing?

Obama has firm leads in Colo., Pa.
By ALEXANDER BURNS | 10/28/08 12:05 PM EDT

Barack Obama is firmly ahead of John McCain in both Colorado and Pennsylvania, a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll shows.


____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@NW Patrick:
"Boom guess what? There goes another news cycle talking about McCain infighting! ROFL GOD I LOVE IT!"

boomshak:
"Based upon a complete lie made up by a leftw-ing blogger. Your whole party is a lie."


boom, don't you GET IT? It does NOT MATTER if that is based on a lie or on truth or a leftwing blogger or a martian. What matters, a week before the election is that story has amazing traction and is dominating the news since last Saturday.

btw, it is not based on a lie. There two names in McCampaign who have been quoted in the story. One of them has already been named by a poster in this very thread. See if you can find the other all by yourself.

I would love to be a fly on a wall in McTrailer, but I will settle for a front row seat at the current GOP knife fight. Which, btw, started 2 weeks BEFORE the elections. 60 seats in the Senate. Thanks, gramps!

____________________

thoughtful:

@boomshak

More importantly what is really happening in NC?

is AB and all these Libs lying?

Gallup is going to show Obama +12% in the LLV a little later is George lying from his grave?

____________________

Ryan in MO:

Why the hell did I just start getting fundraising and BS news stories e-mailed to me from Newsmax??? Asking me to send Citizen McKane a donation... F that.

____________________

hou04:

INSIDER ADVANTAGE/POLITICO

COLORADO
Obama 53
McCain 45

PENNSYLVANIA
Obama 51
McCain 42

____________________

fed:

Insider Advantage/Politico
CO O+8
PA o+9

____________________

BrookLynda:

Angus Mc: re: partisan breakdown D-39% R-24%.

Yes but independents made up the remaining 37%, and they favored Obama 48-31.

Bad news for McInsane and Gov Whack-Job.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

"Sources: Sarkozy views Obama stance on Iran as 'utterly immature'

By Barak Ravid

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is very critical of U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama's positions on Iran, according to reports that have reached Israel's government...."

So, an anonymous Israeli government source briefing an Israeli newspaper about what the French Prime Minister is secretly thinking about Obama's policy in relation to Iran.

What could possibly be wrong with that? I'm persuaded.

____________________

chesirecat47:

Sarcasm is usually lost on this site.

You're unlikely to find a bigger Obama backer on this site (I'm in month 11 on the campaign). I was trying to predict the response of the drudge lovers to Pew.

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

@ Aristotle

Mostly, but not completely. If your numbers are wildly swinging around what other polls are averaging, one can infer that your poll sucks. If one can show that the assumptions you make are crap, then your poll probably sucks (Hello Zogby and 2004 voter ID!). But as you say, no one knows for sure. I'd amend your statement to say that even after the results are in, nobody knows who the best pollster was. Best for what? end result? following trends well? picking up trends early? You don't know these from the results. And even from the results you aren't sure why the pollster that was the closest was the closest. The best thing to do is look over lots of races and see who is consistently right over time. 538 has done a bit of this work.

____________________

AB:

@ thoughtful
I'm not lying ...
I just crunch the numbers from the NC sboe website.

____________________

JerryTheAngel:

Missouri has that knack of voting for the winner. Every time except once in the last 100 years. I suspect Obama will eek out a victory in Missouri this year.

____________________

zotz:

Aristotle-
"Am I thinking correctly?"

No. Your philosophy places too much emphasis on deductive reasoning. In fact it can be argued that you are responsible for the decline of Western civilisation. It wasn't until Galileo, who disproved your scientific methodology, that science was put back on the correct path!

____________________

thoughtful:

With regards to Indiana does anyone know whether Selzer is doing another poll there?

____________________

bpd1069:

Night of the Long Knives has begun @ McCain/Palin's Campaign...

HAHAHAHAHA!

Couldn't have happened to a better pair of whack jobs!

____________________

DaveAustralia:

Boom,
I read your article its interesting but hardly concrete evidence of anything. I love he irony though now that your using the French as credible it would be great to see McCain spin that.

Yeah we hated in them in 2004 but now they have some good points....

actually that sounds like some hypocritical rubbish he would spew

____________________

KMartDad08:

@Angus MC

Good catch. Why do people always dis th polls without looking at the internals. I would agree that they over-polled Dems, and I'm great with a 7% lead.

@BOOM

Was that the sound of ice forming in hades? I never dreamed I'd see you quoting the French to justify your kooky positions.

____________________

du soleil:

So the breakdown is:
R: 27.2% (361/1325)
D: 36.9% (490/1325)

I'm for Obama but I think that 9.7 advantage is a bit high. If you change it to a 5% advantage (to be conservative, worst-case scenario for turnout) or even 7%, someone good at math tell me what that would change the numbers to. Thanks!

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

@ zotz
LMAO!

____________________

buskertype:

I'd say that PEW is picking up the potential for republican voters to just not show up on election day, which is a very real possibility with every poll showing McCain losing his ass in this one. A lot of people will just say, "why bother." Obama's supporters are much more enthusiastic, and want to be part of history. I would be shocked if Obama wins the electoral vote by 13 on election day, but I would not be shocked to see him break double digits. My prediction is Obama +8.5

____________________

MsJohnson:

Boomie only accepts stories from "unnamed senior advisers" when it supports his position, thus illustrating the single most identifying feature of the modern "conservative" movement: hypocrisy.

____________________

Thatcher:

@buskertype -

I am trending on that line as well.

We know that there is about a 5-6% spread between Democrats and Republicans in self-identification.

Pew, in their likely voter model could be adding the other 4-5% as enthusiasm spread.

The question is ...

If Democrats and Republicans turned out to the polls equal to their demographics in the country (D's above R's by about 5%) - then Obama wins by about 5-7%.

The part you have got to ask yourself is - who is more motivated to go to the polls this year and who has the ground game to get them there? Obama or McCain?

If you say Obama - a good ground game can add 3+% supporters to the voting booth.

So, perhaps Pew isn't far off the mark.

____________________

DTM:

As I have mentioned before, early in the year Pew did a survey specifically designed to measure party ID, and got 36% D, 27% R, 37% no party. So, that current split is consistent with their prior surveys.

____________________

Thatcher:

@DTM -

I did see that early - thanks. Look - I'm not denying Pew's numbers, and I think with the MOE its a solid poll. (I think this race is in the 9%-15% range, myself, when all is said and done).

____________________

boolean_radley:

Seven days until boomshack's head finally explodes plastering his disheveled hair onto the bare concrete walls of his dank basement.

____________________

thoughtful:

@AB:

Sorry, those numbers are useful. I was trying to get boom to comment on NC as he lives there.

Lets see what Gallup comes up with

____________________

GriffStep:

@All,

I've had a hard time deciding lately where I would set the over/under on Obama-McCain. I think it's the right time to decide now. So let's say I'd accept your even money bets that Obama wins by at least 10 points (55-45 in the final national vote tallies). Anyone betting Obama?

What about 8 points?

____________________

Thatcher:

@GriffStep

I'd take the Obama on the over at 9 points - 8 points I'd jump at the over ... 11 points I'd really have to think about.

____________________

DTM:

@Thatcher

And to clarify my own views, I think it is possible Pew is missing a bit of what I call the "Shy Tory" effect, which could lead to underrepresentation of Republicans/McCain supporters in their numbers. Or not ... there is really no way tell for sure at this point.

____________________

RossPhx:

>>Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted.

Nader and Barr must have a helluva GOTV machine.

____________________

southern angler:

Todays gallup has it a 2 point race. Here is your McCain surge, the news just keeps getting better for McCain

____________________

Great American:

According to my calculation, The poll sampling shows:

Dems: 490 or 38.8%
Reps: 361 or 28.7%
Indp: 411 or 32.5%

Seems a little skewed towards democrats. Does this reflect current demographics?

____________________

DTM:

@Great American

See my 12:47 post above. Generally, there is no real way to tell what the current party id percentages should be other than polling, so at most you can ask for a pollster to use reasonable and consistent polling methods.

____________________

TheLioness:

My 22 year-old daughter commented to me the other day that she doesn't believe the poll numbers are anything near accurate as far as Obama's lead over McCain because in her circle of friends (college students and working kids alike in Richmond, VA)she only knows one who has anything but a cell phone, no actual land-based phone line, so most of the polls just don't reach them.

So just for fun, and by no means meant to be anything but anectdotal, my daughter and I asked a random sampling of friends and family we have (i.e. those who answered their phones) whether they owned a land-based phone or cell only or both, then reaffirmed they were registered to vote and were GOING to vote. We did not ask who they were voting for. FWIW, my Dad is still a Nader fan and made it clear WITHOUT me having to ask...lol. Anyway, here's what we ended up with.

Total Sample: 60
cell phone only: 43 - Ages ranged 21-41
cell and land-based: 15 - Ages ranged 23-72
Land Based only: 2 - Both over 80, absentee voters

Like I said, it was just for fun, but it certainly begs the question of how much larger the Obama lead might be in ALL the polls, not just Pew's, if all the likely voters in this country who own cell phones only were included in the traditional polls.

____________________

Lets not be complacent because of poll numbers. Lets win this election at the voting booth. Get to the polls and do your constitutional duty of voting. The Democrats are the party of the people, and the people are going to win this election at the voting booth. Vote early if you can, but if you can't, then get to the voting booth on election day and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden!

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

hyh:

This is funnier.

Battleground analysis (PEW Oct 23-26)

Republican states - Obama 47 McCain 43 (n=373)
Democratic states - Obama 57 McCain 31 (n=405)
Battleground states - Obama 53 McCain 35 (n=547)

Battleground states = CO, FL, IN, IA, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI.

If you go by those numbers, Obama gets 450-500 EV.

____________________

Frankie:

Palin believes that people walked with dinosaurs on earth 4,000 years ago. She is a "whack-job."

People = Dinosaurs
Palin = Whackj-ob

In her mind, the Flintstones was a documentary.

____________________

jrcclark:

vercordio:

"As a firm Obama supporter, this sounds a bit high. However, just for sake of comparison, Pew's final poll in 2004 returned Bush 51%, Kerry 48% - dead on accurate."

You are very correct about the 2004 poll. I remember it was the very last poll I looked at 4 years ago, the night before the election. at the time, I did not want to believe it, but they were right on the money. I think there is more truth to this poll than untruth. In my book, this election is anywhere from 7 to 12%BO - and I agree with another post that 10% BO is not that far-fetched.


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