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US: Obama 53, McCain 43 (Gallup-10/24-26)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/24-26/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

2,797 Registered Voters:
Obama 52, McCain 42

2,343 Likely Voters-Expanded:
Obama 53, McCain 43

2,446 Likely Voters-Traditional:
Obama 50, McCain 45

 

Comments

With early voting stats we have now clearly traditional is wrong, things will probably tend towards the mean by the end of the election period but this is looking great.

While my PTSD from 2000 and 2004 is preventing me from being emotionally optimistic, rationally this is locked up for Obama.

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BOOMFAIL:

McSame surge is non-existent.


Landslide Baby Landslide

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Carter:

I just saw Obama's "Closing Argument" speech in Ohio, and quite frankly it wouldn't matter to me at this point if the polls were tanking.

Hear me now and believe me later: this guy wins and he wins big.

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DTM:

So the "traditional" model still has more people in the sample than the "expanded" model.

Again, it seems to me that must mean that McCain must be doing better in the traditional model not just because it excludes some new voters, but even more so because it includes some prior voters who are not particularly enthusiastic about voting this time.

Which means McCain may have as much or more at stake in turnout as Obama, but he needs different people to turnout. Again, with Obama it is new voters he needs to turn out, but with McCain it is his relatively unenthusiastic supporters he needs to turn out.

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faithhopelove:

LAST 12 POLLS IN SWING STATES
(not including Zogby internet polls)

CO:
Obama has led in 12 polls;
McCain has led in 0 polls.

FL:
Obama has led in 7;
McCain has led in 4;
1 tie.

IN:
Obama has led in 3;
McCain has led in 8;
1 tie.

IA:
Obama has led in 12;
McCain has led in 0.

MN:
Obama has led in 12;
McCain has led in 0.

MO:
Obama has led in 8;
McCain has led in 3;
1 tie.

NV:
Obama has led in 11;
McCain has led in 0;
1 tie.

NH:
Obama has led in 11;
McCain has led in 1.

NM:
Obama has led in 11;
McCain has led in 1.

NC:
Obama has led in 10;
McCain has led in 1;
1 tie.

OH:
Obama has led in 8;
McCain has led in 3;
1 tie.

PA:
Obama has led in 12;
McCain has led in 0.

VA:
Obama has led in 12;
McCain has led in 0.

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RussTC3:

Let's look at the week-ago numbers.

Average of the 5 daily trackers released thus far today (LV-Expanded only in the case of Gallup--10/20 in parenthesis)
Obama 50.8 (49.8)
McCain 43.6 (43.5)
Obama +1.0, McCain +0.1 = 0.9 point Obama swing

Obama +7.2% (+6.3%)

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Obama008:

HEY BOOM

WHERE IS THE McBLAME SURGE?

____________________

RossPhx:

Let's give McCain all the toss-up states.

Then let's throw in Ohio.

Then let's make plans for Obama's inauguration.

____________________

Miami4Obama:

@ faithopelove

Nice work! That's a pretty cool way to look at the recent polls.

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paradski:

I think someone forgot to tell Gallup there was a surge on. Here are the weekly avgs for both models. Both are moving toward Obama.

LV (traditional)

10/13-19 O-49.43 M-46.43 (D+3)
10/20-26 O-50.29 M-44.86 (D+5.43)


LV (expanded)

10/13-19 O-51.43 M-44.29 (D+7.14)
10/20-26 O-51.71 M-43.43 (D+8.29)

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DCDemocrat:

Gallup observes that in the past 14 elections, that is, the elections between 1952 and 2004, the candidate who leads in the Gallup poll a week prior to the election wins the popular vote. There have been two exceptions to this rule, 1980 and 2000.

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shirefox:

@Carter

OMG what a speech Obama just made in Dayton!! I couldn't agree more with you. That was one for the ages! I actually choked up listening to it, and that's not like me. His "closing argument" and it sure was!

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carl29:

Here it is my "comparison analysis":

October 27, 2008(This week)

AVERAGE: Obama 49.9 McCain 45.5

Rasmussen, Obama 51 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49.9 McCain 45.1
Battleground, Obama 49 McCain 46
Gallup*, Obama 50 McCain 45
*Traditional


October 20, 2008(last week)

AVERAGE: Obama 49.7 McCain 45.1

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49.8 McCain 44.4
Battleground, Obama 49 McCain 45
Gallup*, Obama 50 McCain 45
*Traditional

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Michael:

Another Pollster typo in your headline (I know, just making your quota), it's either 52-42 or 53-43, not 52-43.

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drdr:

DCDemocrat:

In 1980 the only presidential debate was held exactly one week prior to the election. So the Gallup poll in that year is not comparable to 2008 when all debates are already complete.

As for 2000, Gore made up a 3 point RV deficit to win the popular vote.

Aside from 1980, the largest one-week shift between Gallup RV and election results in a competitive election was 1968, when Nixon was +8 RV one week out and won by 1 point.

McCain has a 10 point RV deficit in today's Gallup poll.

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southern angler:

new IBD +2.8 O .....Here comes Johnny!

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joethedummer:

did you guys forget this poll does not count unless it shows mcsame surging according to boomcrap?

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southern angler:

Alot of talk about socialist today on the radio, even a little about Phil Berg.

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Basil:

Ted Stevens guilty on all charges. Another one bite the dust.

Do I hear sixty? If the R's had behaved like anything other than the obstructionists they are, it might not matter. But they did and it does.

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[nemesis]:

So I'm not the only one that found an article stating Stevens has been found guilty...

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/stevens-guilty-of-felony-charges-2008-10-27.html

I don't know how accurate it is, as it is the only reference that I've seen. If it's accurate, Alaska's Senate seat will most likely go Dem.

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TheLioness:

(Cross posted, but so worth sharing.)

OMG....ROFLMAO ...Palin is at it AGAIN..
Heard at the LEESBURG, Va. rep. ralley today:

"Palin, Republican John McCain's running mate, also tried to burnish her foreign policy credentials by meeting here with Israel's ambassador to the United States, apologizing for the session's delay.

"I look forward to hearing about your work with the Jewish Agency and all the plans that we have," Palin told Ambassador Sallai Meridor. "We'll be working together."

She was apparently referring to the Jewish Agency for Israel, an organization of which Meridor was formerly chairman."

BWAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA...how do people keep from laughing in her face??? she must have picked up a three year old Newsweek to get her info.

Sallai Meridor served as the Chairman of the Jewish Agency for Israel and the World Zionist Organization from 1999-2005.

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johncoz:

Today;s weighted average for the 3-day trackers:

O 50.8/ M 44.2 / +6.8

Last Monday

O 50.1/ M 44.1 / +6

In other words, though Obama has rolled down slightly from his Friday high, he is still up week-on-week.

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AtlantaBill:

@Carter:

Me too and I must say it was a powerful presentation. hope boomer saw it and i am sure it would have convinced him to vote for BO.

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metsmets:

Heh, RIGHT WING MOLES!

We're tired of how you demonizing an American who stands in opposition to your party. You post nothing but poisonous lies: UNAMERICAN, SOCIALIST, MARXIST etc. etc. A person who is out to DESTROY AMERICA.

Shame on you all. You are a disgrace to AMERICA, you are false PATRIOTS. You don't care about your country, you only care about people like you.

My family and sixty-plus millions others will vote for Obama. We are not afraid of the rest of the WORLD, we are not afraid of IDEAS, we are not afraid of the FUTURE. We are not afraid of TERRORISTS.

There is more to life than avoiding TAXES, there is more to life than closing the BORDERS, there is more to life than lying and cheating your fellow Americans to amass the biggest personal fortune possible, there is more to life than destroying people that are different from you...

We reject your message..go away.


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