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US: Obama 53, McCain 44 (ABC/Post-10/17-20)

Topics: PHome

ABC News/Washington Post
10/17-20/08; 1,324 LV, 3%
Mode: IVR
(ABC, Post)

National
Obama 53, McCain 44

 

Comments
joethedummer:

ho hum!

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falcon79:

great commentary from a conservative pundit:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20081021_3912.php

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Viperlord:

Where's the Spin Machine to spin this away?

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mattn:

Where do you get the 52 from? Both the ABC and Post web pages show 53 (unchanged from yesterday).

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webim:


atest PALIN comment from FRANCE ;)


http://www.ilovepolitics.info/

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ucla54:

Not bad for a socialist...funny how the smear is pushing our boys ahead....

like Lincon Said you can fool some of the people some of the time, you can fool some of the people all the time, you can fool all the people some of the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time........

Obama Biden 08!

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alankeysisawesome:

I hear internals for Obama only show Obama up 2 in PA. This is why McCain is there. Boom said so, it's true. Could someone explain where the Camps get these ACCURATE real internals that every pollster over 50 years isn't lucky enough to see?

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I'd like to see more polls from here in Nevada I have a really hard time believing it's tied.

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mirrorball:

Charlie Cook is not a conservative. He worked for Democrats many years ago, but has earned his well-deserved reputation by publishing non-partisan analysis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Cook

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NB:

It's 53/44 among likely voters, not 52/44.

Honestly, is it a Pollster.com rule to have a typo in every single post?

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falcon79:

@mirrrball:
i stand corrected.
but in any case, excellent commentary from a well-respected pundit :)

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Michael:

Another wacky outlier, that makes something like 7 of them today....

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sunnymi:


If Obama campaign's internals show a 2-point lead in PA they should be there as well!
Why are they not there?
Do you think they are planning to give the state on a platter to McCain?
Since when has Obama campaign done anything accidentally?

This is just a hoax or an elaborate setup into which the McCain campaign is buying in.

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Maybe there just trying to make McCain think it's closer so he spends time there? Or they are trying to make their supporters stay motivated?

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mac7396:

Boomshak told me that McCain will win all states and only 2 votes will be cast for Obama (by Obama and his wife). To bad his kids are too young. Boomshak is always right.

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Michael:

"This is just a hoax or an elaborate setup into which the McCain campaign is buying in."

Maybe, but it's not aimed at McCain, it's aimed at Obama's voters to make sure they all get to the polls and work the GOTV effort. Don't want to leave anything to chance.

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Mike A.:

only thing i can think of is in scranton/scranton area they are up by 2? perhaps?

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I'm gonna be casting a ballot for Obama in Nevada so I guess that makes three votes for Obama.

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alankeysisawesome:

God are people stupid. INTERNALS are pollings that are POLLED just like any other. THEY CALL PEOPLE. They don't have a magic poll.

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mandalorianarmy:

Wow, Obama leads in first time voters 73-26 percent. That is why you see so much variation in the polls lately. It all depends on how these new voters fall into their likely models.

As more of these first time voters vote early they will have to be included in all of the likely voter models making Obama's poll lead grow.

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Michael:

I sent in my vote last week, as did my wife, so that makes 5...

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PortlandRocks:

Landslide. I've been saying it for weeks and I get yelled at.

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Viperlord:

Come on people! Surely we can put together 10 votes! Lol.

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PortlandRocks:

YES WE CAN! 10 votes!

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sunnymi:


An interesting take on whether Obama whether Ohio or Florida are more winnable for Obama (from a pollster)

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/why-obama-will-win-ohio-before-florida.html

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Michael:

"God are people stupid. INTERNALS are pollings that are POLLED just like any other. THEY CALL PEOPLE. They don't have a magic poll."

There is a different formula and more time and money are spent on them, but what most people need to remember is internal polls serve a different purpose than our entertainment for watching the horse race here. Here, we are all looking at the "top line" number, whereas pollsters for campaigns are more interested in very specific stuff- what messages are playing well, what are ineffective, what shift in messages can shift votes, etc. They spend much more time framing the questions right to get accurate results so they can properly advise their candidates, and often they target specific demographics and not a balanced sample of the whole community because they are aiming those messages at a specific demographic. That being the case, maybe Obama's internal does show a 2 pt lead, if he's polling a particular swing demographic. And, like all internals, despite what campaigns say when they get released it is always intentional, either to fire up the supporters, or to keep donors, or to give the illusion of a large lead to shut down the opposition for example. In this case, I'm betting it was released to increase his own turnout so people don't get complacent.

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UpstateProgressive:

It's what the first commenter said:

joethedummer: ho hum

Another hour elapsed, another great national poll for Obama...

Even if Rasmussen is right, and that poll is starting to look like an outlier, McCain has a lot of ground to make up in a very short time. If Obama has sufficient coat-tails, could we see a 60 seat Dem Senate? Stranger things have happened.

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M2:

The Republicans are going to look back on this election as the point in time where they lost the West and southern Mid-Atlantic in the pointless pursuit of Pennsylvania. If Obama wins those territories and then solidifies them over the next eight years, the electoral map becomes unworkable for the G.O.P.

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bclintonk:

My wife & I and my mother-in-law have already voted for Obama. That makes 8.

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ricbrig:

I think the most recent state polls (looking at Ras and SurveyUSA) are telling that the race is closer than these polls.
Again, I think that Ras is on the numbers, all these other polls (maybe including Gallup) find little support from the most recent state polls.

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sunnymi:

Insider Advantage

Colorado
Obama 51
McCain 46

North Carolina
Obama 49
McCain 48

Nevada
Obama 47
McCain 47

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Michael:

"I think the most recent state polls (looking at Ras and SurveyUSA) are telling that the race is closer than these polls.
Again, I think that Ras is on the numbers, all these other polls (maybe including Gallup) find little support from the most recent state polls."

Seriously? You have actually looked at other polls on the site and seen recent state polls, right????

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boomshak:

INTERNAL OBAMA PA POLL: LEAD ONLY 2!

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/05041/703/752/630799

Rumor: Obama's internals in PA apparently leaked
by Oujdi

Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:50:41 PM PDT

Apparently, Obama's internals were leaked to a radio talk show host in Scranton. they show Obama up by only 2 in PA.

Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.

Sean Smith, who is heading Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this.

Here is the audio of the interview:
http://audio.wilknewsradio.com/m/audio/21203046/corbett-speaks-with-sean-smith.htm

This has caught on like wildfire in the right wing blogs and seems to have raised their spirits.

This is important because, if it is true, it undermines the argument that we have a substantial partyId advantage this year.

A partyId of at least +6 this year seems reasonable, as many pollsters are showing. Many rightwingers are arguing that the breakdown should be a push, like 2004, which is ridiculous. However the rumor of +2 in PA reinforces their argument. And that's the last hope they have left.

We need to get on this story as soon as possible before it spreads any further. I don't want them to have any hope left, Let's crush their spirits!

I mean, it's a DailyKos Story and you can hear the radio interview yourself, so hard to blame this one on Karl Rove...

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ericsp28:

I voted for Obama today in Texas. I personally know 2 other people here that have voted for him already too.

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boomshak:

NO WONDER MCCAIN IS HITTING PA HARD!

He has the same internal polling that Obama does, and the lead ain't anywhere even close to the +11 on RCP.

There is no other reason for McCain to be committing so hard to PA.

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sunnymi, thanks for the Nevada poll -still I don't believe it. obama is out in front by 10 points in Washoe county and is slightly ahead elsewhere. I know for a fact that a lot of my buddies from work (the one when I last had a job and i still hang out with tjem) are almost all obama suporters when in the past these cats went for Bush.

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gymble:

Was that 2-point internal number for PA reported by anyone other than boomshak? Because if he's the only one ... I have a bridge to sell you.

I assume this poll is a little generous. In the end, I suspect Obama will win the national vote by 5 or 6 points. I'd be very surprised if he broke that.

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Batony:

Palin back in Pa on Thursday...McCain back to FL and then on to Colorado.

If Obama loses this race...blame it on the media. My mom is NC also said she is so tired of seeing Obama on TV down there...he might be overdoing it.

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ricbrig:

Boom:
Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:50:41 PM PDT

and today is...?

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political_junki:

@boomshak: Your posts are getting less and less fun man, whats up? We need more juice! Socialist, Terrorist, Communist, what happened to these words? These are the stuff that we digg, they are why we come here.
-----------------------------------------------
Obama is a socialist who has been allies with terrorists since 1995 but the communist MSM wants to cover it up. But Obama and his rouge liberal friends and the three headed monster of (Pelosi Reed Obama) will be DESTROYED next time I go to his rally and ask him about his tax policy. DESTROYED!

-----------------------------------------------
"There is no other reason for McCain to be committing so hard to PA."

Yes there is another reason: He is an idiot.

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boomshak:

INTERNAL POLLING IS ACCURATE BECAUSE THEY WANT TO TRUTH.

All of these public polls (until the last few days) are paid for and used to drive the news cycle and influence the vote. They are closer to propaganda than truth.

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M2:

I smell gamesmanship on the Obama internal leak. What better way to keep your troops energized while also inviting McCain into more time wasted in a state where he's going to get crushed?

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Commander_King:

Myself and 9 of my friends and family are voting for Obama and we live in WV yes WEST VIRGINIA :)

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boomshak:

@M2:

Lol, spin much?

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political_junki:

@M2:
I concur. Leak as reported by boomshak is a lie.
If it were true, it would have been Obama camp's plot to fool mccain to put more money in PA. It is not the first time Obama's camp has fooled McSames :)

BOOM:
Remember public financing. LOOL

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bclintonk:

I don't believe a word of this Pennsylvania "internals" story. This sounds like an e-mail from a low-level staffer trying to light a fire under his volunteers in a closely contested part of the state. I doubt someone at his level---head of the Wilkes-Barre office---would even have access to statewide internal polling numbers. It's stupid to lie to your volunteers by just making something up, of course. But it's also stupid to think the Obama campaign in a crucial state like Pennsylvania would be sending e-mails on sensitive internal polling data to 627 volunteers in Wilkes-Barre. It makes no sense. I'd reprimand the guy, too, for feeding his volunteers a bunch of hooey to try to motivate them.

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alanskeyisawesome:

Still two weeks for McCain to solidify his lead. Once this election is over, and McCain comes out with the lead, you all better hide because the wacko commy libs will be rioting everywhere.

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M2:

@boom

The problem McCain's had this entire campaign is he's playing checkers against a guy playing chess. If I'm Obama, I smile a bit wider every time I see McCain chasing after PA in vain.

You'll believe what you want to believe, but two more weeks of McCain wedded to this dopey strategy of his would seem to be exactly what Obama wants. Plus, I'd think you'd be suspicious enough of Kos to figure that anything coming from there about the Obama campaign is a plant.

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A lot of people seem to be ignoring North Dakota. I firmly believe that Nevada is going for Obama and Mo. seems too to. So Nev. ND and Mo. all equal 19 votes. Pretty much makes Ohio (Hi Chrissie Hynde) obsolete doesn't it?

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ericsp28:

So if the Obama campaign supposedly knew PA was that close a week ago, why have we not seen them focus on the state? With his financial advantage Obama could crush McCain's efforts in that state if he wanted to divert resources.
Since they haven't done that you can conclude that one of two things. 1. their internals don't really show it that close, or 2. their internals in other battleground states show them well ahead and they aren't worried about the prospect of loosing PA.

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PortlandRocks:

boomshak do you always get so excited over being "DUPED." Obama's campaign is EXTREMELY well organized and nothing ever leaks. I'm wondering if you shouldn't be "suspicious" of this leak. He's a VERY smart man.

RCP Average 10/11 - 10/20 -- -- 51.7 40.7 Obama +11.0

Morning Call 10/16 - 10/20 600 LV 4.0 52 42 Obama +10
Susquehanna 10/16 - 10/18 700 LV 3.7 48 40 Obama +8
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/13 516 LV 4.4 55 40 Obama +15
Marist 10/05 - 10/08 757 LV 3.5 53 41 Obama +12
Strategic Vision (R) 10/05 - 10/07 1200 LV 3.0 54 40 Obama +14
Rasmussen 10/06 - 10/06 700 LV 4.0 54 41 Obama +13
SurveyUSA 10/05 - 10/06 653 LV 3.9 55 40 Obama +15


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alanskeyisawesome:

Obama can't buy this election with any amount of money. McCain and Palin, the REAL Americans will landslide over those commys, Obambi and Buddin. It is GAME OVER.

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Nowukkers:

boom:
I doubt that the dailykos story is for real - for a start, it's over a week old, and we've not seen it yet in the MSM. Second, there are many, many internal polls taken, and I doubt they would ever rely on just one. Third, every single mainstream, moonbeam and wingnut poll in PA has Obama with a lead of at least 10 points. Last, have you considered that this could be a leak designed to get McCain to piss his money away in PA? If Obama were concerned, there would be volunteers swarming all over PA by now. No reports of that yet. You may be right, but all fingers point to "no" for me.

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Batony:

I am not saying any red state is going to flip. The are red states for a reason. I still say Obama needs to be ahead 5 to 7 points in those Red States to say he is going to win.

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RussTC3:

RV was also the same as yesterday (52/42).

Average of 7 daily tracking polls (plus two Gallup LV models and one ABC RV model) = Obama +7.9%

10/21/2008 (10/20 in parenthesis)
Obama 50.4 (50.3)
McCain 42.5 (43.1)
+0.1 Obama, -0.6 McCain = 0.7 Point Obama Swing

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PortlandRocks:

Non story. NEXT.

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IndependentThinker:

@boom****

Frankly I didn't know you were that stupid man
And McCain would be far more stupid to take for granted that internal polls of Obama's campaign suggest he's leading by only +2
McCain is sticking to PA because he knows if he can't turn red a blue state he's done

FYI: According to RCP
Morning Call 10/16 - 10/20 600 LV 4.0 52 42 Obama +10
Susquehanna 10/16 - 10/18 700 LV 3.7 48 40 Obama +8
SurveyUSA 10/11 - 10/13 516 LV 4.4 55 40 Obama +15
Marist 10/05 - 10/08 757 LV 3.5 53 41 Obama +12
Strategic Vision (R) 10/05 - 10/07 1200 LV 3.0 54 40 Obama +14
Rasmussen 10/06 - 10/06 700 LV 4.0 54 41 Obama +13
SurveyUSA 10/05 - 10/06 653 LV 3.9 55 40 Obama +15
Morning Call Tracking 09/26 - 09/30 598 LV 4.0 48 41 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 832 LV 3.4 54 39 Obama +15
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 4.5 50 42 Obama +8
Franklin & Marshall 09/23 - 09/28 767 RV 3.5 45 38 Obama +7

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muckinello:

I live in PA and believe it is closer than +10 but not as close as +2. We will however carry this state. If Gore and Kerry did it I don't se how McCain can beat Obama here, expecially with all the enthusiasm

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How can McCain win you guys? If you take all the yellow states on this map and make them red Obama still has 286 votes. Lets say NewM. and Col. actually vote red, then you still have Obama with 272 votes.
Why such the strong proMcCain argument?
Iguess the play is a hope that McCain can take Penn.? I'll take that play.

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alanskeyisawesome:

Watch them blue states turn red. Even most them libs ain't gonna elect a commy non-American ticket.

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BobbyS:

I suspect PA is very much like my state - Ohio.

My gut feeling is that Obama will win by a point in PA and lose by one here but really, who knows at this point?

I've already cast my vote so I guess Obama has reached 10 or so votes by now.

I will say this - the number of Obama yard signs in formerly Bush country is roughly 4 times greater here than in the 2004 election...

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PortlandRocks:

Batony great. We're ahead by 8 on average in VA and more than 5 in Colorado. WIN. Adios.

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CaliforniaIndie:

That +2 nonsense is a great leak by the Obama campaign. It will make sure nobody gets complacent and that Obama's people really mobilize.

Hillary did it with Ohio in the primaries. She leaked that her polling was showing a dead heat so her people would turn things up a notch. She won by almost 10 points.

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JerryTheAngel:

There is not one Gore or Kerry state in play for McCain. To think that any of these states would switch to the Republican party after the dismal performance of Bush, is laughable. None of these states are going to switch to McCain/Bush. Fool me once, shame on you, Fool me twice, Shame on me. Fool me Thrice? They won't get fooled again. LOL

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boomshak:

@IndependentMoron:

McCain isn't in PA because he believes Obama's Internal Polls, he is in PA because his OWN internal polls tell him the same thing - PA is within reach.

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boomshak:

YOU WANNA WATCH SARAH PALIN UTTERLY KICK OBAMA/BIDEN'S ASS?

http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/oct/21/and-this-is-why-we-all-did-our-happy-dance/

This is just sick it is so strong. Don't watch it if you are easily upset.

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PA-John:

"

That +2 nonsense is a great leak by the Obama campaign. It will make sure nobody gets complacent and that Obama's people really mobilize.

Hillary did it with Ohio in the primaries. She leaked that her polling was showing a dead heat so her people would turn things up a notch. She won by almost 10 points."

LOL Exactly. This PA leak story is over a week old. It was an over zealous staffer trying to rally the troops.

To quote Ed Rendell "McCain going after PA now is like Kerry going after Texas."

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RussTC3:

CaliforniaIndie, I know, it's absolutely brilliant strategy isn't it? And judging by this site, it looks like at least one person is falling for it.

The Obama campaign really knows how to work their strategy.

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bclintonk:

Boomshack, OF COURSE there's a reason for McCain to be hitting Pennsylvania hard, other than that it's close (and by any available evidence, it's not). He's got to do SOMETHING. He can't just throw in the towel. He knows he's lost Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, and Colorado. He knows he's behind by big numbers in all the Kerry '04 states. So even in the unlikely event he drawsan inside straight on the remaining battleground states--FL, OH, NC, IN, MO, NV---he still loses the election. His one last, desperate hope is to win all those states AND pull a rabbit out of a hat somewhere among the Kerry '04 states. And if you're going to do that, you need to concentrate all your resources on the one where you think you have the best chance, even if that chance is slim to none. And you might as well make it a big one with enough electoral votes that if you do pull it off, it gives you enough EV to carry you to the finish lineeven if you have some slippage elsewhere. So what's it going to be? CA? No way. NY? Preposterous. NJ? Not likely. MI? Not in this economy. MA? What are you smoking?

Might as well make it PA. Not because there's a shred of evidence that you actually have a chance there. But at least you can hope. Hope that anti-abortion sentiment outweighs economic anxiety among blue-collar voters. Hope those big Philly suburbs that once voted reliably Republican come back to you one last time---even though they've been trending the other way for a long time now. Hope that Hillary's big vote in the primary was really an anti-Obama vote and that some residual of that is still there, despite all the polling evidence to the contrary. Hope that Ed Rendell was right when he said before the Dem primary that "some people in my state will never vote for a black man."

If you're John McCain, you hit Pennsylvania hard because it's the only thing you can do---a really desperate Hail Mary. Because if you don't throw the Hail Mary, all you can do is take a knee and admit it's over, and you're not quite ready to throw in the towel.

But you know what? This is a 200-yard, 2 touchdown Hail Mary. It really is over.

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Chester:

@ alankeyes:
who are you man. come on, come clean.. nobody is that stupid or ignorant. Are you some joker having fun with the forum?

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drdr:

So today, in addition to this ABC poll showing Obama +9 we have a national Pew poll showing Obama with a 14 point lead. The Pew poll has a huge sample size and is done by a well-respected independent pollster.

And we have a rumor of an internal poll of unknown size or date showing Obama +2 in PA.

These two things do not go together. And yet, some people are putting their hopes in this rumored internal poll.

P.T. Barnum was right...

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atreides:

Wait a minute (in my best Homer Simpson voice). This story "broke" on Oct 14. That's how many weeks in dog years. Seven. If this were some sort of viral story, it would have hit the networks by now. Did it happen. Yeah, maybe. But don't you think the other polling outfits have received the same info. Yet no one is duplicated the poll. If you ask me, this is a head fake to get McCain to take his eye off of Fl. Does anybody seriously think that Ed Rendell won't deliver Pa. One of the reasons why Obama didn't do as well against Hillary was because he didn't pay "street money". I read a story that the campaign is still philosophically against it but it hasn't been taken off the table. I think Obama is more worried about holding his lead in Fl than Pa. This kind of story bolsters that position.

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PA-John:

"McCain isn't in PA because he believes Obama's Internal Polls, he is in PA because his OWN internal polls tell him the same thing - PA is within reach."

Boomshak-
How many times has Obama or Biden been in PA the last week? Does that tell you anything about how they feel about their polling?

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Chester:

The PA story is ****; it's a fake poll that the Mac camp leaked to pump up their base there. Pretty classic strategy, shouldn't be causing that much of a fuss.

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boomshak:

@drdr:

FiveThirtyEight calls Rasmussen the best pollster going. He has it +4. Trust that.

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drdr:

Maybe McCain should be trying to win California or New York instead of Pennsylvania.

Those states have even more electoral votes, so then he could afford to lose even more of the 2004 Bush states. And it's OK if he is further behing in NY or CA becuase the chance of winning more EV makes up for it.

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CaliforniaIndie:

No - McCain isn't there because his internals are good. He's there because if he pulled out of PA, the media would call the race. How many more states can they admit they have problems in? And PA is a large enough electoral count that it's viable he could flip the race by turning it red.

He's there for pure PR and face-saving, basically to make people believe he has a chance. I grew up in the reddest part of that state, and I can tell you that PA isn't going red.

Plus that DailyKos article is from a week ago - 10/14.

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boomshak:

Who knows, maybe the people in Western PA don't like being called redneck racists?

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Batony:


FLEMINGTON, N.J., Oct 20, 2008 /PRNewswire-USNewswire via COMTEX/ -- A new national study among 316 self-reported Democrats, Republicans and Independents revealed that after viewing segments of Sarah Palin's appearance on Saturday Night Live, Palin's favorability ratings increased among all parties.
The study was conducted by HCD Research and the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO) on October 18-19, to obtain Americans' perceptions of Governor Sarah Palin's guest appearance on Saturday Night Live.
The Sarah Palin appearance on Saturday Night Live earned John McCain a Political Communications Impact Score (PCIS) of -4.7, while Barack Obama received a score of 2.1, resulting in a net score of 6.9 for Barack Obama. The scores can be compared to a mean score of 8.5 for previously tested Obama ads and 7.8 for previously tested McCain ads. To date, the total mean score for all previously tested ads is 8.1.

Among the Findings:
Favorability ratings for Sarah Palin pre/post viewing of video:

Pre Post
All Responders 51% 54%
Democrats 18% 24%
Republicans 83% 85%
Independents 50% 55%

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political_junki:

@BOOM:
Have you seen Palin's FAV/UNFAV's lately? Maybe you should have a look at them, then you will know who is kicking whose ass?
How hard is it to excite your own base by rambling and bull****ting ? that is all she is doing, on the other hand a good chunk of independents and even moderate republicans (My parents, uncles etc) wont vote for McSame just because of her.
It was really fun arguing with you a couple of weeks ago but now it is becoming more and more boring as you are really going out of interesting stuff. Juice it up man. Give the terrorist attack.
Remember how you thought Ayres attacks will CHANGE THE RACE?
Then you thought that "wealth distribution" is going to destroy Obama: I remember you said it is going to be the biggest COLLAPSE IN POLITICAL HISTORY (Caps locks are from you :) )
Give me some of those stuff.

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mysticlaker:

HAHA Boom!

She has the lowest favorabilty rating on any vp candidate ever. She speaks with sarcasm and scare tactics. They don't work. Get a clue. The electorate is looking for solutions not fear.

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Chester:

Just this this afternoon, Palin had to apologize for her "pro-America" crap and a GOP rep. said that libs hate America (maybe that's Alankeyes!). The narrative between these 2 things is that Mac's Repubs are a small town bunch; they're hicks. This is an election between small towns and cities. Too bad there aren't 100,000,000 more potato farmers in America, John, or you'd be the next POTUS!

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political_junki:

Batony:
These are her Fav/Unfav's among people in PA:

FAVORABLE........................ 38 %
UNFAVORABLE................... 44%
NEUTRAL/NOT SURE......... 16%
HAVEN'T HEARD OF HER... 0%

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symblized:

US: Obama 50, McCain 42
Ipsos/McClatchy national
10/16-20/08; 773 LV, 3.5%

http://www.kansascity.com/445/story/851177.html

____________________

countrymous3:

Boomshak:

Are you by any chance the same 'boomshak' who backed Romney in 2006 and wrote the following (over at http://www.anklebitingpundits.com/content/?p=1225#comment-31805 ):

"All politics aside, McCain is just too old and
sickly looking to become President. He appears
feeble and speaks in almost a whisper most times.

After 8 years of Bush and the monkey cartoons,
Republicans are ready for someone that “looks”
Presidential.

Sorry, but we don’t need a “tired out looking
old white guy” - can you say BOB DOLE?
"

____________________

PA-John:

@boom
"FiveThirtyEight calls Rasmussen the best pollster going. He has it +4. Trust that."

Here is what Nate Silver actually saysvabout Rasmussen:

"Frequently reputed to have a Republican lean, Rasmussen's overall house effect between its state and national polls has in fact been very minor -- less than one full point. However, it has been somewhat more pronounced in their national tracker than in their state-level results."

For the record, he weighs the Rasmussen daily tracker highest because of it's large sample.

"In summation, none of these tracking polls are perfect, although Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island. Conversely, the only one of the trackers that I consider obviously dubious is Zogby."

The top rated pollster on 538 is Selzer & Co., Rasmussen is 3rd.


____________________

RussTC3:

Here's an average of all the national polls released today vs. yesterday (if a poll release had a RV and LV result, they're both included, or in the case of Gallup, all three are counted--RV, LVI and LVII):

10/21/2008 (10/20 in parenthesis)
Obama 50.7 (50.0)
McCain 42.6 (43.4)
+0.7 Obama, -0.8 McCain = 1.5 Point Obama Swing

Obama +8.1 (+6.6)

____________________

zotz:

boom-
"Who knows, maybe the people in Western PA don't like being called redneck racists?"

I know whatcha mean! I'm so mad I am gonna hang Obama in effigy on my front lawn. That'll teach'em to call me a racist!

I think I'll burn a cross too! Nobody's gonna call me a redneck!

____________________

mysticlaker:

Thanks @sym!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Chuck Todd had nothing but bad news for John McCain on "Morning Joe" today. "Lets get realistic," he said, before adding Colorado, Virginia, and Florida to Barack Obama's column. Other battleground states Todd rated as "pure tossups," but then he added, "So what? If Obama is up in these three, and you're hearing very negative comments come out of the McCain campaign about Colorado, Virginia ... and then there's Florida, which has really slipped away from McCain."

"There is no ground game," Joe Scarborough responded. Todd agreed, adding that Democrats were already doing better in early voting, based on ballot requests. "The ground game, it is just absent from the McCain campaign ... At this point, the only state that I feel good about for McCain is Ohio." He posited that McCain could win that state but lose the election, which would be "very frustrating to Republicans."

____________________

Viperlord:

Maybe the folks here in VA don't like being called communists or "Unreal"

____________________

countrymous3:

@boomshak:
Here's another one of your 2006 gems (Isn't google a b*tch? http://www.anklebitingpundits.com/content/?p=904#comment-21646 )

"Romney will win in 2008. McCain, the poster
boy for RINO’s will NEVER win the Republican
Nomination. It is just impossible.

I have no idea why McCain polls so highly
amongst Republicans other than name
recognition. In my cirle of Republican friends
(it is very large), most consider him a
Democrat and despise him."

I think you are going to be as wrong about the general as you were about the primaries.

____________________

RussTC3:

Ipsos/McClatchy, 10/16-20 LV (no trend lines)
Obama 50
McCain 42

This is the first LV poll from Ipsos/McClatchy this cycle. Their last poll of Registered Voters (10/9-13) had the race at Obama 48 and McCain at 39.

Added into my average, Obama now leads by 8.2 points today.

____________________

Viperlord:

Here's yet another one

"Sounds like typical bomb-dropping BS on Romney. Why is it the press always seems to accept hook-line-and-sinker any allegation, no matter how outlandish, against a Republican without considering the source or their motives.

The left is afraid of Romney because they know he can win in 2008 so they are trying to bomb him early.

Won’t work."

____________________

Viperlord:

Apparently it did work. LOL.

____________________

mysticlaker:
____________________

IndependentThinker:

brand-new nbc poll

O 52 - M 42

____________________

Viperlord:

Yet another gem "

drhass:

Get ready for a Romney win. Yeah Huckabee is getting lots of good press from the MSM, but of course, Huckabee could NEVER beat Hillary. The MSM thrashes Romney every day with every word because he COULD beat Hillary and they are scared to death he will.

Right now, Romney holds a double digit lead in:

Iowa
NH
Nevada

If he sweeps those by double digits, then we have over a week to stew on that victory before any more Primaries, Mitt is gonna be tough to stop. Of course this is his plan. Smart plan.

In addition, Mitt has gone up 8 points in many national polls since the Iowa win. he also just cruised to a big victory in the Illinois Straw poll.

Hate to say ‘told you so’, but, ‘told you so’… "

Damn, this is fun.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Wow. They are the dumbest campaign I've ever seen in my LIFE. Palin dubs Obama: 'Barack the Wealth Spender'

Yah? The Dem nominee will help spread the wealth. Is it me or is this NOT a bad thing? ROFL IDIOTS!

____________________

mysticlaker:

$100 bucks to obama for a great polling day!

Who is with me?

____________________

maddiekat:

Make that NBC/WSJ
You know that liberal WSJ

____________________

mattn:

NBC/WSJ: 52/42 Obama, amongst RV.

I believe this makes at least four today (Pew, NBC, ABC, Gallup) that have double digit RV leads. Maybe more (would have to check). Again, this suggests that most variance is due to likely voter models, which really need to be released to judge them.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

More from the IDIOT PALIN:

RENO, Nevada (CNN) — Sarah Palin’s pointed criticism of Barack Obama’s foreign policy agenda Tuesday morning included a swipe at Obama’s stated commitment to strike at terrorists inside Pakistan’s borders if they are in the sights of the American military.

“Senator Obama has also advocated sending our U.S. military into Pakistan without the approval of the Pakistani government,” Palin said. “Invading the sovereign territory of a troubled partner in the war against terrorism.”

But Palin herself has advocated the same approach.

Palin told a voter at a retail stop in Philadelphia in September that the United States should “absolutely” cross the border into Pakistan to hunt terrorists, a statement that appeared to contradict John McCain's preference to negotiate with the Pakistani government first, or at the very least, to not publicly announce such a strategy.

____________________

muckinello:

Dana Millbank on CNN
"If McCain wins PA I will eat my weight in cheesteaks in the situation room'

____________________

alanskeyisawesome:

McCain keeps pulling ahead. Stop making lies about by Boomshak.

____________________

Viperlord:

This is our boom all right.

"HERE’S WHAT THE PUNDITS DON’T REALIZE: ROMNEY ALREADY HAS THIS THING LOCKED UP.

A recent poll by Gallup indicated that only a third of registered Republicans EVEN KNOW THAT ROMNEY WON THE IOWA STRAW POLL!

Now folks, this was ALL over the news for a week and 2/3rds of Republicans don’t even friggin know it happened?

Wow, I would call that, “unengaged”, wouldn’t you? This then explains why Romney is running away with early states such as Iowa, NH and Nevada. They are engaged. They are paying attention. They know who Romney is and they like him.

I mean hell, if 2/3rds of Republicans nationally don’t even know he won the Iowa Straw Poll, that goes 90% of the way there to explain why his national numbers are so low (mid-teens).

So what happens when he sweeps Iowa, NH and Nevada? Then all those clueless Republicans in other states say, “wow, who is this guy, he seems pretty sharp…”

I’m tellin you, this is all over but the braggin."

____________________

RussTC3:

Alright, enough with all the polls. LOL

Looks like GWU and Rasmussen are the outliers today.

Though, heck, I'm be happy as long as Obama is up 3-5 points by election day. That should be enough.

____________________

maddiekat:
____________________

political_junki:

@muckinello:
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

____________________

countrymous3:

Candidate for best 'boomshak' quote (when he was touting Romney, talking to a Huckabee booster whom he was accusing of--of all things--cherrypicking polls!). Emphasis in original quote:

"Dude, you are the consummate CONTRARIAN
INDICATOR. Whatever you are in favor of always
eventually fails. It’s remarkable."
--boomshak, Aug 2007

http://www.anklebitingpundits.com/content/?p=2513#comment-155746

____________________

Viperlord:

"#

griswold,

Here’s my take on Thompson. People are used to seeing him made up and lit perfectly on TV. He always looks authoritative and in control. He’s written that way.

However, (from what I hear) and from the “untouched” photos I’ve seen show, he looks:

1. Far older in person.
2. Far more frail in person.
3. Like someone who may have some underlying health issues in person (we know about the cancer thing).

Face it, if Romney had been playing a kick-ass President of the USA on TV for the last 5 years instead of being Governor, he would probably be leading in all polls now, including national.

I know they say Thompson’s cancer is in check; however, poor Tony Snow said his cancer was no big deal recently and he looks about 80 years old and not well at all (and I totally like Tony Snow).

Of all the leading Republican candidates, only Romney and perky Giuliani look fit and vigorous. They’ll need that to battle the ever-chubbening Hillary (have you seen her lately? lord, she is a COW!)."

How sweet boomy.

____________________

political_junki:

@countrymous3:
Keep it up man, I havnt had this much fun here for a while :)))

____________________

mysticlaker:

Sarah Palin was the first we had to vett..Then Joe the Plumber, and now boomshak!

____________________

Viperlord:

Here's the full quote from boom: "#

Patrick,

Are you now on Huckabee’s payroll? Whatever happened to McCain? Guess he’s not your boy anymore since he’s not signing your checks?

Dude, you are the consummate CONTRARIAN INDICATOR. Whatever you are in favor of always eventually fails. It’s remarkable.

I had a stock trading friend like that once. It was uncanny how he was ALWAYS WRONG. My other friends and I actually made a lot of money by just doing the opposite of whatever he recommended.

I’ll try to be gentle on this. Mike Huckabee is a nice guy and well-meaning, but he has NO CHANCE to win the Republican Nomination. None. Zero. Zip. Nada. Snowballs in hell.

He also has no chance to become the VP Nominee after slamming Romney.

Of course the MSM loves Huckabee BECAUSE he has no chance. Their former favorite loser, McCain, is out of the race so now they are getting on the Huckabee Train.

They want to do everything they can to make sure the weakest possible candidate faces Hillary in the General Election. This is why they pound on Romney 24/7 and throw roses at Huckabee.

I have a good rule of thumb for you as a Conservative. Here it is:

“DON’T TRUST ANYTHING THE MSM LIKES”

It’s funny how Romney’s 32% in Iowa 9and winning every single other straw poll held) is “meaningless”. Yet Huckabee gets 18% in Iowa and boy-oh-biy, here he comes!

Dude, for a guy that gets paid to be smart, you aren’t very smart.

____________________

Viperlord:

Here's another one! This is SO much fun.

"Patrick,

Conversing with you is like fighting with kids on the playground when I was 12.

“Boom is so dumb, Boom is a fool, Boom’s mom wears army boots, Nanny nanny boom boom…”

Dude, let me bottom line it for you ok?

You WERE a PAID consultant on the McCain Campaign. McCain had this nomination wrapped. The MSM wanted him (for obvious reasons) and it was ‘his turn’. Done deal.

And yet, despite HUGE advantages, he managed to throw it away with BOTH HANDS.

He managed to stick his finger in the eye of the Republican base repeatedly. If I took the time to list all of his idiotic moves, the spam filter would probably filter my post for sheer volume.

And you my ‘brilliant’ friend, were one of the people giving him advice, weren’t you?

What are you gonna put on your resume - “…Taught the Captain of the Titanic how to steer the boat”?

Meanwhile my candidate, for whom I have been roundly savaged in this sad excuse for a blog, now holds double digit leads in 3 of the first Primary States and is only 8 points back nationally in the latest Rasmussen Poll even though 60% of Americans have no idea who he is.

So, your man’s campaign is an utter and complete failure, my man’s campaign a growing success…

Yet you are smart and I am dumb?

Lol, dude, this has to be real. You couldn’t make up something this rediculous."

____________________

Sure I'd give Obama $100 for today's polling on your request. If I had $100 to give him!LOL As for Palins comment abut Obama the Wealth Spreader. Awesome! Send some my way. BUt does she even realize that giving 700 kagillion dollars to the banks IS spreading the wealth... up to the 5 largest banks who don't need it. She justdoesnt get it. I'll extend an invitation for her to visit me here in the Great City of Las Vegas. I'll show her around at the awesome state of our economy. I'll show her truckloads of people who are just so opposed to having any wealth thrown their way. She's clueless!

____________________

M2:

bclintonk:

I agree with your Hail Mary assessment. McCain's got to throw something. The problems is he never went for the kind of anti-NAFTA policies that would score with the people he was trying to court in the Rust Belt.

And, more than that, he never ran left of Obama on immigration, potentially protecting the West and possibly putting California into play.

The more time that passes, the more amazed I get at the fact that McCain seemed to think he could win this election on Bush's coattails without a radical departure from the party orthodoxy.

____________________

countrymous3:

@political_junki:
It's like shooting fish in a barrel : Just hit up the google and search:

site:www.anklebitingpundits.com boomshak mccain

____________________

gymble:

So just to sum up - 538's six top-weighted national polls read the following:

Pollster: Obama/McCain, Margin
ARG: 49/45, +4
IBD/TIPP: 46.9/40.9, +6
Ipsos: 50/42, +8
NBC/WSJ: 52/42, +10
Pew: 53/39, +14
Rasmussen: 50/46, +4
Average: 50.2/42.5, +7.7

From this, I'd assume that ARG and Rasmussen are a bit low and Pew and NBC/WSJ are a bit high. Notice that Obama's average is over 50 - even if McCain snags all the undecideds, which is unlikely, he still loses. Unless McCain can siphon off current Obama supporters, he's hosed. I guess that PA represents his last best hope in this respect among a series of very bad options. But looking at the numbers in PA - good luck with that.

____________________

VA Yellow Dog:

@political_junki:

I live in a majority white neighborhood of Richmond, VA that was annexed by the city of Richmond (majority AA) 30 years ago. There is still residual resentment towards Democrats and AAs in this neighborhood because of the annexation. Still, Obama-Biden signs outnumber McCain-Palin signs on my street and throughout the neighborhood, but only narrowly (call it 5:4).

There is a lot of hope among Dems that Obama-Biden will carry VA this year, but that hope is tempered by VAs history of not having voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate since ’64. Bill Clinton thought he had a shot at carrying VA both in ’92 and ’96 but lost both times.

Here, as in so much of the country, it will all depend on GOTV. By all accounts, the Obama ground game in VA is much stronger than McCain’s.

GET OUT AND VOTE – Early if you can!

____________________



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