ABC News / Washington Post
10/23-36/08; 1,314 LV, 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 52, McCain 45
I just got this mailer from the Republican Jewish Coalition with the headline:
Concerned About Barack Obama? You Should Be. (in menacing bold letters)
So I thought I'd respond in kind... My response, verbatim:
suject: Just got your mailer..
And let me tell you, uncategorically.. Get Bent!
It's your group's prerogative to align yourselves with a party who has sold their soul to the fanatical Christian Fundamentalist movement whose biblical priorities include the destruction of Israel to usher in the new era of Christ. But your political affiliation will soon go the way of total obscurity like the other turncoat, Joe Lieberman. Best of luck to both of you!
p.s. nice oh-so-subtle use of Obama's picture speaking to a large crowd.. in Germany! Oh what a truly subliminal use of imagery!
p.p.s. My 20 Jewish neighbors and I here on Miami Beach all voted early.. for Barack Obama! Shalom!
- The Rosen family
Miami Beach, FL
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:34 PM
Nothing has changed. Where's the surge?
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:35 PM
High five dude
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:37 PM
I think I got that mailer a little while ago, too.....And my family is not Jewish. I was raised Catholic and my wife was raised Presbyterian.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:38 PM
Only one Sunday left for the tie.
McCain Surge Continues... !!!
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:39 PM
TIGHT AND GETTING TIGHTER BY THE DAY:
And this is before the HUGE news about Obama's 2001 Socialist Rant hit.
Rasmussen Reports 10/24 - 10/26 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/24 - 10/26 2448 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/24 - 10/26 1203 LV 2.9 50 45 Obama +5
Diageo/Hotline 10/24 - 10/26 879 LV 3.6 50 42 Obama +8
IBD/TIPP 10/22 - 10/26 886 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
GWU/Battleground 10/20 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
The KEY here is not just the low numbers, but the BIG move to McCain in just the last few days.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:40 PM
21 min. to RAS. Will he agree with oh the last 6 polls of OH showing an Obama lead or will he break the trend? STAY TUNED. If #'s are good for Obama it's about over.
good job boom. can i have what you are smoking?
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:41 PM
boomshak I'm confused. How does McCain win down by 3?
You know, some of the comments on the earlier threads about how McCain was surging had me cracking up.
I was out of the country without Internet access for 10 days between Friday the 17th and today and, during that time, Obama's lead increased by about 1.5 points. Reading the comments, it seemed that Obama had a huge lead heading into last weekend which apparently dissipated a bit over the past couple days.
Regardless, it's blatantly obvious that Obama is consolidating his lead week by week. Aren't the McCain deadenders are funny?
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:42 PM
Boom if McCain goes into election day losing EVERY SINGLE POLL. How does he win? ROFL Man you are on the educated express aren't you?:)
Average of today's seven daily tracking polls (LV-Expanded in the case of Gallup and LV in the case of ABC/WP).
10/27/2008 (10/26 in parenthesis)
Obama 50.4 (50.4)
McCain 43.9 (43.1)
Obama +n/c, McCain +0.8 = 0.8 point McCain swing
Obama +6.5% (+7.3%)
No loss in support for Obama. If McCain can't pick away any of Obama's support, he's in deep, deep trouble.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:43 PM
@boomshak - I wonder, do you know the actual definition of "socialism"? Because it doesn't seem so based on your continual misuse of it.
I don't see what you're talking about. McCain's numbers went up a bit but Obama's didn't go down. How is McCain going to win when Obama's numbers are at or above 50%?
Also, what socialist rant big news? The only news I see is Palin is a diva, Skinheads tried to kill Obama, Obama issues closing argument in OH, Ted Stevens, longest standing Republican senator for Alaska, found guilty of corruption.
RCP Average: Obama + 7.3
Intrade: Obama 87.6
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:44 PM
IF THERE WAS EVER ANY QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE MSM IS IN THE TANK FOR OBAMA...
I haven't been watching TV today, but from what I have heard online and on the radio, the MSM is COMPLETELY IGNROING the story about Obama's 2001 Socialist Manifesto.
Truly remarkable that serious news organizations would black out such a big story. How can they have any hope of ever being taken seriously again?
FoxNews is all over it of course.
But here's the question. McCain has been referring to it in his speeches today. Will the MSM also black out those speeches so no one will know?
"Oh what a tangled web we weave when we practice to deceive..."
Redistribution: Obama damned by his own words.
What goes around comes around.
The end for Obama!
Now go out and vote for McCain.
In '04 some polls had Kerry winning, most ended up with a Bush lead. If EVERY SINGLE POLLSTER ON PLANET EARTH shows an Obama win, even at 3% which is DOUBLE Bush's win % then could anyone explain to me the McCain's path? You know Boom, intellectual discussion with proof and facts to support your agenda?
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:45 PM
Why do you guys take that character Boomshak serious? He's a joke!! hahhahahahahahah
boomshak NUTBAG they are ignoring the story BECAUSE IT ISNT A STORY. JUST LIKE THE ****ING BIRTH CERT. BULL****. FAIL!
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:46 PM
The race went from "Obama with a sizeable lead"
"Obama still with a pretty sizeable lead"
Do I get that?
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:47 PM
"Obama the Redistributor" will definitely be a game-changer.
Just like picking Palin.
Just like suspending the campaign.
Just like Joe the "Plumber" and, now, Tito the Builder.
Combined with the Stevens' conviction, it's definitely a McCain landslide in the making!
50% of Voters Believe Ayers Issue Has Hurt McCain Campaign PER RASMUSSEN.
Also - SEE KARL ROVE ELECTORAL MAP ROFL FAIL! Obama has 306 per ROVE!
"FoxNews is all over it of course."
1 week till change. You guys ready?? :D
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:48 PM
you are a joke too, hahahahahahahaha
I'm ready Kerrychdavis. If we don't win, I am starting a secession party for OR, WA, and Cali.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:49 PM
@booomshak and the other GOP dung-fleas
Keep dream'n; the rest of you get outta this site and start calling for Obama and Democrats. Don't waste time with these numbnuts.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:50 PM
Interesting, when you discuss facts about Obama's past you are a joke.
Fortunately, the joke is on you November 4th.
McCain the true American!
Am I the only one that thinks Rasmussen's number tonight will be good for McCain on purpose? I mean, I'm pretty sure Murdoch wants his money's worth and give FOX some good news to talk about for the next week. No?
By "socialist manifesto" do you mean when he said it's too bad that people started relying on the courts for social justice instead of working for it themselves? Are you saying the republicans have a problem with their own platform? Might want to read the statement itself rather than just the talking points, my friends.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:51 PM
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:52 PM
306 EV's without toss-up states
If McCain wins, we might have to secede. After all, our states aren't part of "Real America."
doubtful. Scott Ras is a republican, but it's clear he cares about his polling reputation.
No, you're not the only one who thinks that.
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:53 PM
"Redistribution: Obama damned by his own words."
Most Americans think "redistribution" is what happens at the big UPS building by the train tracks.
Obama and Wright attached at hip!
That's right, ads are now running that again reveal Obama attended Wright's radican anti-American church.
God Bless America
They are funny though, the sound ridiculous
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:54 PM
if a prgressive tax system = socialism, then we have been a socialist country for a century
As a rejoinder, another post to our blog recalls this Q & A -- also from 2001 -- with John McCain:
Audience member: "Why is it that someone like my father who goes to school for 13 years gets penalized in a huge tax bracket because he's a doctor." McCain: "I think it's to some degree because we feel obviously that wealthy people can afford more." Audience member: "Are we getting closer and closer to, like, socialism?' McCain: "Here's what I really believe: That when you reach a certain level of comfort, there's nothing wrong with paying somewhat more."
Changes in tracking polls are statistical noise at this point.
Try to ignore it.
Ignore the trolls...
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:55 PM
Was in NYC this weekend and started talking about the election with I guess an arabic man.
So we were talking and he said Obama will win the election. And I ask him why he thought so...and he replied "because there are more black people in America than white". I immediately thought he was just misinformed and told him, "no there are way more white people in America than black people". He shot back "no you have white boys who act or want to be black, white women who like black man...see that's how Obama came to be, white mother, black father". And he ended "so there are more blacks than white".
So I now have a whole new perspective on this election.
You really think the MSM has some responsibility to pick up a completely BS report because it's put out by Fox and Rush? You poor deluded idiot.
And it IS nonsense. Just as all the other "surprises" have been nonsense, like the "whitey" tape, like the "he's not a natural born citizen" nonsense, like Ayres and all the other crap. This is just more of the same.
"That's right, ads are now running that again reveal Obama attended Wright's radican anti-American church."
I think they're getting the girl with the backwards "B" on her cheek to do the voiceover.
(BTW, technically you can't "again reveal" something.)
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:56 PM
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 45 (49)
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:57 PM
McCain = American Patriotic President
Obama = Marxist Dictatorship, disagree with him and be damned. Ask the Fla. TV station that dared as Biden a tough questions!
A CASE STUDY IN POLITICAL INCOMPETENCE
You guys have been using the "spread the wealth" attack for a week now to no avail. I guess you didn't get the memo but I'll break it down for: YOU ARE LOSING, DOUCEBAGS.
The titan that was the GOP under Reagan has died a horrible death. The GOP used to be focused like a laser beam but now you’re all over the place. Over the last week we've seen: he's a terrorist, he's a socialist, he's arrogantly measuring the drapes, he's Lord ACORN the fraudster, he's got too much money, he's anti-Joe-the-plumber...and lots of other crap.
Lee Atwater must be rolling around in his grave at the incompetence of the McCain/Palin campaign. Heck, look at what Atwater's disciple Rove did in 2004: focus like a laser beam on two issues...national security and gay marriage. That’s how you drive a message home, focus like a laser beam. Can’t you see that anytime you throw dirt at the Obama campaign, all they do is come back and say “tax cuts for 95%”. That’s how you run a campaign…focus like a laser beam.
You guys have come up with so many attacks that even potentially valid ones are no longer sticking. I suggest that you dust off your children’s books and re-read the story of the “boy who cried wolf”.
Rasmussen - Ohio (cross-posting)
Contrary to some of the rants on here, the tracking polls seem to be settling in at quite numbers.
Gallup (+1 or even depending on which one you look at)
ABC News (same)
Pretty stable across the board. Rasmussen is really the only one showing any movement and it may be noise due to the weekend. We'll see.
2 things to remember:
1) With nearly a third of the population expected to early vote, Obama is picking up a ton of votes right now. No matter what the election day numbers dwiddle down to, it shouldn't make a difference.
2) The firewall is still set. Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia. Those polls are not changing, and therefore the election verdict will not change.
The national polls will tighten as they always do, but don't freak out about it. We're definitely in good shape.
Rasmussen - Florida (cross-posting)
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:58 PM
I have called the RJC out on many occasions and the have responded to me, in a similar fashion to Boomshak, all Caps and angry throwing insults and devoid of fact. Anyways the RJC is just a front organization for Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA) is a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit neoconservative think-tank of whom members include Dick Cheney, Richard Perle, and R. James Woolsey, John Bolton and Douglas Feith. More info can be had here:
Posted on October 27, 2008 5:59 PM
+4 in Ohio and Florida!
Good news so far...
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:00 PM
It is funny how Rasmussen made booms day nationally but state by state he has ruined booms day.
Rasmussen - Missouri
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:01 PM
Those Ras Ohio numbers are incredible for Obama, with 1 week to go. McCain can't win without Ohio, can't wait to see Hannity try and spin this one tonight.
It is interesting that the "spread the wealth attack" assumes that the middle class agrees with Joe The Plumber. They don't! In tough times people are thinking who is it that is going to help them and their family. People want a social safety net. Nobody (except the nutballs) cares about the Reagan Revolution.
People are thinking- Screw Reagan! (or McCain, Rush, Hannity, Boom, etc...) People that are suffering are not praising the hedge fund managers and CEOs as examples of the American dream. The middle class want fairness FOR THEM!
Ras CO 10/26 (10/20)
Obama 50 (51) - McCain 46 (46)
Ohio looks like it will go down to the wire...
William Ayers was the dumbest campaign move ever. If McCain loses, it will be b/c of his suspension of his campaign and him threatening to cancel the 1st debate.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:02 PM
Boom: so, the fact that the MSM isn't buying into the "socialist" story means that you are conceding that your gamechanger isn't gonna happen and McPlanecrash has no hope now?
Is that what you're saying?
Also - no matter what the national polls say VA and PA are out of reach for McFlailin. What is the GOP electoral victory scenario without VA and PA?
I've been asking you this for weeks and you've never replied. Guess that answers my question, huh?
any more state polls due out?
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:03 PM
Rasmussen - North Carolina
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:04 PM
Waiting on Virginia from Ras.
So it's O +1 in MO? Anyone know what they were last week?
Also waiting on NC.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:05 PM
Rasmussen - Virginia
I think this is the last one for the day!
Obama is up +4 in florida according to latest rass. poll! I predicted that Obama would be up +5 in that state this wk! LANdslide Alert! McCain Campaign is unraveling like Clintons Campaign. The O team will goin down in history as one of the most powerful campaigns ever!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:06 PM
TELL ME THIS ISN'T SCARY:
The Obama Campaign has now banned TWO DIFFERENT TV STATIONS from any further interviews because they DARED ask Joe Biden about Obama's "spread-the-wealth" comment.
Are you starting to get this people? You ask Obama/Biden anything but softball questions, and you get banned.
Is THAT "change" we can believe in?
P.S., Barack Obama has not had a press conference in over a month. Why not? When Sarah Palin didn't do a press conference the MSM was all over her for it. Now that Obama is hiding out? No problem.
NC numbers a bit dissapointing, but count in early voting edge and Ras republican lean it's not bad at all.
Is Arizona "officially" in play? Rasmussen has McCain at +5. I think the Latinos are really hacked off at McCain. I don't think Obama really can win AZ but it could get interesting. Should McCain be consulting with Al Gore right about now?
significant improvement for M in VA. MO, CO, and NC holding steady. Improvement for O in FL and OH
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:07 PM
Nov 4th is going to be a great night. It's either going to be 286 great, or 356 great. But it's going to be great.
there you go again.
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.0 49 44 from last week
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:08 PM
Suffolk, now Rasmussen, showing Obama up 4-5 points in Florida. Very good news.
McCain is so lucky to be even this close in those battleground states.
This tape issue will make people nervous about Obama, and that's all McCain needs is to sow doubt.
Despite a horrid campaign, McCain has a good closing strategy.
and BTW, I just saw a report on McCain's reference to the 2001 speech on MSNBC, so it's not being ignored.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:09 PM
With all those VA polls coming out a +4 is fine. No worries there.
Barack may be untouchable by the MSM.
I will point out, however, that Drudge, Fox and Newsmax have a large audience. Talk radio has a large audience. The You Tube video that showed the "real Obama" in his own words about redistributing wealth has been viewed by millions.
Americans are not stupid and will not vote for a Socialist!
O:50 (51) M:46 (46) M+1
O:51(48) M:47(49) O+5
O:48(49) M:47(44) M+4
O:49(47) M:45(49) O+6
THAT PHILADELPHIA INTERVIEW:
When asked during that Philly Interview if Barack Obama wasn't engaging in 'socialism' with his 'spread the wealth' comment, Joe Biden said , 'No, no, no, no, no...!'.
But then when asked why that wasn't socialism, he just responded about how unfair these attacks were.
HE NEVER ANSWERED THE F*CKING QUESTION! Now that TV station is banned.
Pathetic. Scary. Chilling.
Boom always does that when polls come out that don't favor his Thug. Wow Boom. How the hell can you win losing CO, VA, FL, MO, and Ohio? Hell, NC is a tie! HAHA! FAIL!
I find it hard to believe Obama is up by the same amount in Virginia that he is in Florida and Ohio.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:10 PM
WOW!!!!!! McCain is surging :-)
O: 48(48) M:49(50) O+1
Comparison to last Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls:
Colorado, 10/26 (10/19 in parenthesis)
Obama 50 (51)
McCain 46 (46)
Obama -1, McCain n/c = 1 point McCain swing
Florida, 10/26 (10/19 in parenthesis)
Obama 51 (48)
McCain 47 (49)
Obama +3, McCain -2 = 5 point Obama swing
Missouri, 10/26 (10/19 in parenthesis)
Obama 49 (49)
McCain 48 (44)
Obama n/c, McCain +4 = 4 point McCain swing
North Carolina, 10/26 (10/19 in parenthesis)
McCain 49 (48)
Obama 48 (51)
McCain +1, Obama -3 = 4 point Obama swing
Note: McCain was up 50/48 in a 10/23 Rasmussen Reports survey, so if you want to compare to that poll, then there's actually a 1 point swing to Obama.
Ohio, 10/26 (10/19 in parenthesis)
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 45 (49)
Obama +2, McCain -4 = 6 point Obama swing
Virginia, 10/26 (10/12 in parenthesis)
Obama 51 (50)
McCain 47 (47)
Obama +1, McCain n/c = 1 point Obama swing
Note: Obama was up 54/44 in a 10/16 Rasmussen Reports survey, so if you want to compare to that poll, then there's actually a 6 point swing to McCain.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:11 PM
LOL, idiots who read Drudge, or Newsmax, or watch Fox are already going to be McCain supporters. If you think that's all you need to get a story out you're even stupider than you already appear.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:12 PM
Not surprisingly, some of Ras's figures (like MO and NC) again appear to have a Repub lean. But are the OH and FL number confirmation of other recent polling in those states or what?! Awesome!
So it's Obama +4 in OH,FL,CO, and VA per Ras, -/+ 1 in NC and MO. Great news for Obama overall.
Are these Rasmussen numbers all from a single day of polling, that is, Sunday? If so, that's even better news for Obama.
8 days to go and all the polls tightening up and a BIG FAT OCTOBER SOCIALIST SURPRISE sitting in Obama's lap.
This is gonna be close, real, real close.
Landslide. One week to overturn ALL of these states, some of which have already started voting.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:13 PM
Joe-the-Plumber is not playing well in Ohio. He shouldn't have done the TV rounds and then suggest that he'd be running for congress...it smacks of opportunism.
State polls look good overall for Obama but was expecting him to have more of a lead in Colorado and not such a dramatic drop in his Virginia lead.
Batony yah great strategy. Fail in every Bush state! IDIOT. FAIL!
I realize some gained and some move further apart, but as a McCain supporter to be within 4 of all states we need to win I feel great. It is within reach.
boomshak yah. Another intelligent post from you. Tightening in FL and OH ey? ROFL IDIOT. FAIL.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:14 PM
NC numbers are great last RAS poll said:
10/23 - 10/23 700 LV 4.0 48 50 McCain +2
North Carolina swing should read 4 point McCain swing
McCain is surging, don't you see it? :-)
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:15 PM
What is the sample size on these Rasmussen State Polls? He used to do tiny samples with MOE's of like 5. Has that changed?
Ummm 4 points with a week left will be VERY hard to move. But keep dreaming.
Is there a chance Obama can win Louisiana? The Dems have 57 % in early voting so far.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:16 PM
The vote on November 4th will be quite different than these sporadic tracking polls.
McCain will win:
These are rebuplican states and they are smart people who do not believe in socialism.
Republicans are extremely motivated and these BS polls will skew toward "the popular choice." When it comes to voting and pulling the lever, McCain will be the choice.
I cannot wait until November 4th to see the MSN and all you liberals shocked and crying racism and any other excuse.
1,000 LV, +/- 3%
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:17 PM
Well ad OH per Rasmussen to this list and I'm feeling oh so gooooood:)
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 408 LV 5.0 52 42 Obama +10
Ohio Newspaper Poll 10/18 - 10/22 886 LV 3.3 49 46 Obama +3
Big10 Battleground 10/19 - 10/22 564 LV 4.2 53 41 Obama +12
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 737 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:18 PM
See guys, McCain is surging!!! Nothing to worry about, this "Maverick" with his "mavericky" ways is always in the surging side :-)
Obama will win Virginia, North Carolina and yes...Georgia. The news that I'm getting on the ground in the South is very encouraging.
Community organizing, baby, community organizing!
Man, you've got to love people who are surely getting chewed up in the current economy acting as guard dogs for the spoils of others.
Newsflash folks, there's been a class war going on this entire decade. It's just that now the middle class is fighting back (despite the number of right wingers brainwashed into fighting a class war against themselves). Obama's pushing the radical idea that our economic policies ought to favor the middle and working classes. You know, the economic policies that have actually worked in modern history.
Folks McCain is going to lose! I can sit here and spin and say that the, "redistribution of wealth" will allow McCain Camp to come back! But look Folks Obama will redistribute wealth! HE is PeTER PAN! Take from the rich to give to the poor! But this is not a winning Attack because it looks desperate! McCain needs to talk about the economy! And ratched up the GOTV effort immediatly because voting has already started! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!
Gosh you're stupid
You forgot Missouri and why not throw in PA?
Add CO per Rasmussen to this listing and I'm feeling even more oh soooo goooood:)
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 10/21 - 10/23 500 LV 4.4 52 40 Obama +12
InsiderAdvantage 10/20 - 10/20 576 LV 4.0 51 46 Obama +5
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19 - 10/19 1000 LV 3.0 51 46 Obama +5
CNN/Time 10/11 - 10/14 762 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:19 PM
8 days to go and all the news for Obama is bad. He is on defense explaining every day why he isn't a socialist even though he keeps talking like one.
See guys, McCain is surging!!! Nothing to worry about, this "Maverick" with his "mavericky" ways is always 0n the surging side :-)
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:20 PM
Wow, another liberal throwing out an insult!
Next week when McCain wins and you liberals are in shock, you will really get mad.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:21 PM
McCain surge! He is going to win the election by losing Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado. Good luck!
This McCain surge is overwheling PHEW. WOW Obama up now well over 6% on average in OHIO. DARK BLUE BABY!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:22 PM
If by bad news you mean skinheads wanting to kill him then yeah its tough out there for Obama.
Add these results to VA and it's clear, the McCain surge in VIRGINIA!
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 671 LV 3.9 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 52 45 Obama +7
Washington Post 10/22 - 10/25 784 LV 3.5 52 44 Obama +8
VCU 10/20 - 10/22 817 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 647 LV 4.0 54 44 Obama +10
SurveyUSA 10/18 - 10/19 652 LV 3.9 51 45 Obama +6
early voting still going strong?
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:23 PM
scottkj we will see you HERE Nov. 4th, right?
McCain's last "maverick" ploy will be to endorse Obama as proof of his ability to reach across the aisle to get things done. Surely that will create the voter avalanche he needs to win the election.
Now, for the home stretch. Obama has Wed. Expect a 1-2% bump from that. We'll ride that till election day.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:24 PM
Wow..... Troll quality has really gone down of late.
Of course this McMaverick surge is so "mavericky" strong that no one, listen to me, no one can deny it :-)
Does polling reflect the 3 big news stories of the weekend!?
1. Biden/Obama asked tough questions and black-ball the TV station.
2. Obama's redistribution video
3. Obama and Wright are back on TV - character counts and many Americans are unaware that Obama attended an anti-American church for 20 years.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:25 PM
Dozens Of Call Center Workers Walk Off Job In Protest Rather Than Read McCain Script Attacking Obama
By Greg Sargent - October 27, 2008, 5:18PM
Some three dozen workers at a telemarketing call center in Indiana walked off the job rather than read an incendiary McCain campaign script attacking Barack Obama, according to two workers at the center and one of their parents.
I wouldn't be too worried about the VA numbers tightening in Ras. All the other VA polls out today show O + 9,7,8,11. I'd be willing to bet VA is closer to those than the Ras +4.
Voted early in Miami Gardens, Fl Saturday, took me three hours but it was WORTH IT... Boomshak did you vote already?
The news for Obama is only bad if you watch Fox. But then, that's like saying that the sun rises in the east - nothing new.
People give up the McCain is on Offense arguement? According to everyone National or state, 1point ahead or 9points ahead! It clearly shows that the McCain/Palin ticket is a weak republican ticket! Obama is now getting a percentage of republican support as well as the conservative democrats who voted for Bush! McCain only has till Wensday! Why? Because Obama is going to take is Campaign Primetime. And Bill will be campaigning with him! POll numbers will rise AGAIN! LANDSLIDE ALERT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:26 PM
scott man u are pissing into the wind. People don't care what Obama said in 2001. If you read it will say nothing about taxes talks about education.
This whole socialism arguement is a farce. If progressive taxing is socialism, than we are a socialist country and we have been for 100 years.
Scott McCain voted for the biggest socialist act of this country's history.
Spare us the talking points.
How bout' them polls
Nice job collating the figures. Thanks.
Being pedantic ,I'm going to point out that what you've called swing is actually just the change in the spread. The swings are half that. ie. if Obama goes up 4 and McCain down 2 (Ohio), the swing is 3 points, not six, since the net effect is three percent of votes moving from one candidate to the other.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:27 PM
"Joe-the-Plumber is not playing well in Ohio."
Why would anybody let an unlicensed plumber tell them how to vote? I wouldn't let him work on my plumbing. I don't get it!
Why does Dredge wear that stupid hat? Is he ashamed of the shape of his head?
Obama leads among North Carolina voters who have already cast their ballots, while McCain leads among those who have not. Of those who made their choice but have not yet voted, nine percent (9%) say there is still a chance they could change their minds before Election Day.
Nothing says that McCain supporters will vote, but Obama supporters have already spoken so.....MCCain & INdies are still up for grabs...Obamas are locked in. (voted)
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:28 PM
Latest from Rasmussen:
Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia shows some modest movement in a few states, but the overall dynamic of the race is little changed and still favors Barack Obama.
In fact, a review of all Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling conducted in October shows a race that has remained quite stable despite the frenetic pace of campaigning, massive amounts of campaign ads, and daily media coverage of the latest campaign tactic or gaffe.
In Missouri, Obama is up by a single percentage point, 48% to 47%. That’s the strongest showing yet for McCain in polling conducted during October and comes just after his weakest showing of the year when he trailed by five a week ago. However, as we noted at the time, last week’s survey was conducted the day after Obama held two massive rallies in the state. Despite these ups and downs, Obama has held a very slight lead—from one to five points--in all four Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Missouri polls conducted during October.
In Ohio, it’s Obama 49% McCain 45%. That’s an improvement for Obama compared to a week ago when McCain led by two. In the Buckeye State, Obama’s support has been between 47% and 49% in each of the past five weekly Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls. This is the first time that McCain’s support has fallen below the 47% level since weekly polling of the state began in early September.
In Florida, Obama is also back on top this week, 51% to 47%. A week ago, the two candidates were essentially even but the current results are very similar to those from polls earlier in October.
In North Carolina, McCain attracts 49% of the vote while Obama earns 48%. This is the third time in four weeks that the candidates have been within a single point of each other. Last week, Obama was up by three.
In Colorado, it’s Obama by four, 50% to 46%. Obama has been at 50% or 51% in each October Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll of Colorado voters while McCain has been at 45% or 46% each time.
Stability reigns in Virginia as well where Obama leads 51% to 47%. As in Colorado, the results for each candidate have been virtually identical in four consecutive Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls of Virginia voters.
The stability of these results is consistent with national polling over the past month. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has shown Obama with support from 50% to 52% of voters every single day for 32 consecutive days. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has been in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and eight points.
A number of other themes emerge from the data that are worth noting:
· Nationally, Obama is currently polling eight or nine percentage points better than John Kerry’s final results from four years ago. He is also doing eight or nine points better than Kerry in three of the six Battleground State polls this week—Colorado, Florida, and Missouri.
· Obama is outperforming Kerry by an even wider margin in two Southern states—13 points better in North Carolina and 12 points better in Virginia.
· Obama is outperforming Kerry by a smaller margin in Ohio, six points.
· The economy remains the most important issue in all six states.
· Obama is trusted by slightly more voters than McCain on economic issues in five of the six states. In North Carolina, 48% trust each candidate most on the economy.
· The data suggests an ongoing challenge for Exit Polling this year. In every state but one, a majority of Democrats say they’d be very likely to take the time to fill out an Exit Poll questionnaire if asked. In every state but one, the number of Republicans willing to do the same is below 40%.
· The number of Democrats who say they’re Very Likely to participate in an Exit Poll ranges from a low of 47% in Missouri to a high of 54% in Ohio.
· The range of Republicans that willing to take part in the Exit Poll goes from a low of 33% in Missouri to a high of 43% in Ohio.
· In five of the six states, more voters would turn to McCain than Obama for advice on the toughest decision of their life.
· In Virginia, however, 47% say they’d prefer advice from Obama while 46% name McCain. That’s a change since we first asked the question in early September. At that time, 50% of Virginia voters preferred advice from McCain while 44% chose Obama.
It looks like.
(in-person & absentee returned) 2,063,157
We keep on growing our edge over the Republicans and their "miraculous" absentee ballots :-)
Per the Ras polls:
Obama Lead, (Swing to Obama)
MO: +1 (-4)
OH: +4 (+6)
FL: +4 (+5)
NC: -1 (-4)
CO: +4 (-1)
VA: +4 (+1)
Net Swing: +3 to Obama.
Conclusion: The noise in Rasumussen's state polls are very high. You have 2 major swings towards Obama and 2 major swings towards McCain, with 2 more state being stable. I guess it's within the MOE, but really pushing the limits. Obama is at least leading marginally in ALL of these states!!
Lines still long in Miami Gardens, Florida and other places... The early voting isnt letting up at all
it doesn't matter!!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:29 PM
No prob. And you're probably right. I never know what to call that. It's not a bounce, it's not really a swing, but like you said it is a change.
So from now on, I'll just say "x point change in favor of candidate".
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:31 PM
You know what, no economy can prosper without a thriving middle class earning good, livable wages that go up year over year (currently they're going down in real dollars). This is not rocket science. Corporations in the 60s made up 40% of the tax base, now they make up 7%. Marginal tax rates on millionaires and billionaires has gone down. Income tax on people making less than $200K has gone up. Obama is presenting the novel idea that our tax policy ought to favor a strong middle class, not the ever widening inequities where the rich get super rich and the rest get super poor. In the last 8 years, the wealthiest 400 INDIVIDUALS increased their wealth by $600 BILLION. In that same time real wages went down for most Americans. Enough!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:32 PM
Another proof of McMaverick's surge:
THE POLL: The poll of 600 likely voters statewide was conducted Oct. 23-26 by Suffolk
THE NUMBERS: Obama 49% McCain 44%/ Obama +5
Previous Suffolk poll:
Suffolk/WSVN 09/27 - 09/30 600 LV --
Obama 46 McCain 42/ Obama +4
See? McMaverick with his "mavericky" ways is always on the surge :-)!!!!!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:35 PM
THE NUMBERS: Obama 49% McCain 44%/ Obama +5
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:36 PM
Why would Charles Fried vote for a Socialist? Or maybe Obama is Socialist the same way, you know, Alito and Roberts are socialists.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:37 PM
"You know what, no economy can prosper without a thriving middle class"
Amen brother! I've been canvassing in NH on the weekends and that's all I talk about...the state of the middle-class and its robustness as a prerequisite for a strong economy.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:40 PM
Just thinking out loud about all this "socialist" talk - but how stupid do you have to be to label the other side as socialists and then get your ass kicked? I mean, when this fails (and any sensible view of the electoral map right now shows that this is failing big time) all you'll have achieved is making the U.S. safe for socialism. Seriously, the "socialist" guy wins, the economy gets better over the next four years (because it's so bad right now that it pretty much has to improve) and you've now convinced a whole new generation of voters that what you call socialism is a pretty good idea.
That doesn't even touch upon the softball McCain's teed up for Obama, namely that McCain knows Obama actually will change the way things work in Washington (and that McCain won't) and his last ditch effort is to try to make that seem scary. "It's what you say when all you're proposing is more of the same."
With due respect, those calling Obama a socialist wouldn't know a socialist if it bit them on the ass. Best to ignore their posts, rather than trouble yourself responding to ignorance.
still long queues right. perhaps get another million or so there early. is election day not going to be chaos though if people are still queueing for up to 4 hours after a week of early voting. how on earth they going to cope with the flood on election day?
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:41 PM
Cool reply. Thanks. It's just that "swing" is a useful concept for understanding what percentage of votes needs to move across to close or open a gap. So it would be a pity to lose it. (Tho' looking thru' this thread, I'm probably fighting a losing battle!)
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:42 PM
During early voting there are one to a few polling places opened in each county. On Nov 4 all voters will go to their own precinct to vote.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:43 PM
I'm not quite sure why you think it is going to be a definite landslide when all of these states are within the marging of error. The demographic of these RED states is better than that of the nation as a whole. McCain is behind, but if he gains ground he is still in range to win. If I were an Obama fan I would not want to be within the margin of error going into next Tuesday. I realize this only matters if McCain does continue to gain some over the next week.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:44 PM
I think that this is exactly what has Republicans worried. They love to have "chaos" on election day, so they can do they tricks without anyone paying attention. However, the fact that people are voting early, especially minorities and new voters, only makes tricks harder on election day.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:47 PM
"If I were an Obama fan I would not want to be within the margin of error going into next Tuesday."
The stakes are too high to be complacent...you are absolutely right!
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:48 PM
If Rasmussen were the only State poller perhaps but the averages of all polling is better.
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:50 PM
You are so right my friend. Victory is around the corner and McMaverick is always on a surge :-) I don't know why these crazy libs can see it. Good thing that you are here to tell them the truth. Repeat with me: McMaverick with his "mavericky" ways is on a "mavericky" surge :-)!!!!!
I don't know why no one has offered the correct response to Republican charges of socialism, that Democrats believe in using government to spread the wealth around.
The response is this: Republicans believe in using the government to give more money to the rich. If that isn't socialism, what is?
So those of you who don't believe in using government to help the less fortunate, why do you believe it should be used to help the well off?
Obama is going to outperform the polls in the South. He was consistently under-polled during the primaries (often by double digits), and from what I can tell, the pollsters haven't made adjustments for the general. Nate Silver at 538 has also alluded to this point. As a historical reference, compare Obama’s actual performance in states like VA, NC and GA during the primaries, to the RCP poll averages:
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:54 PM
Seriously, why would fiscal conservatives like Fried and Buckley vote for a socialist? The simple answer is that Obama isn't a socialist. Seriously, if you actually read the quote, it says nothing about redistributing wealth. He's talking about social change. It was a poor choice of words to be sure, but .nothing to do with economic policy
Posted on October 27, 2008 6:59 PM
Another high five Trosen! From Texas.
Posted on October 27, 2008 7:00 PM
Average production workers salary in the US: up about 4%. Average CEO's salary: up about 300%
It's not about "socialism" it's about fairness. Letting the inequality gap grow at this rate threatens social mobility and the notion of a level playing field. It threatens to make us an undeveloped nation within a developed one. Class warfare? Not if there's proper stewardship and recognition of the threat this poses to our democracy. Bring on the Obama "redistribution," which is ultimately a necessary tilting of the "playing field" back to level. A "level playing" field is something most Republicans don't care about, since it's about accumulating power for them, though there are plenty of thoughtful conservatives who realize that this election is really about paying the piper.
Posted on October 27, 2008 7:04 PM
It is interesting to see the continual imploding of the McCain campaign. When he is on the podium talking about change and how he will fix the economy, he has with him the old hacks that were major causes of the problem (e.g., Jack Kemp, Phil Gramm, etc). You get dizzy watching this bunch--It's nice to have the stability of the polls.
Posted on October 27, 2008 7:08 PM
A quick look at the top ten most viewed political stories on Yahoo! News:
1. Feds disrupt skinhead plot to assassinate Obama
2. Stevens guilty on 7 counts, won't quit Senate race
3. McCain vows to shift from Bush's economic policies
4. Obama promises to deliver 'unity over division'
5. Obama leads in 5 key states, McCain in 2
6. Palin promises to work with Israel's ambassador
7. McCain guarantees victory
8. FBI: Hate crime down in 2007 but anti-gay crime up
9. McCain fights for comeback in hard-hit Ohio
10. Pentagon on guard for White House wartime transition
Strangely enough, "GOP bloggers claim Obama is a Socialist--again" didn't make the list.
Posted on October 27, 2008 7:52 PM
Thanks for talking back. Haven't got any mailer up here in Massachusetts--wonder why?
Your distant cousin, perhaps, who could be grosen, but happens to be george on pollster......
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:37 PM
Hmm.. not sure I have any living relatives named george. But hey.. I'm a liberal. I'm all about family. Welcome!
Posted on October 27, 2008 8:42 PM
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