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US: Obama 53, McCain 40 (GWU 10/08-09, 10/12-13)

Topics: PHome

GWU/Battleground
Tarrance Group (R)/Lake Research (D)
10/08-09,10/12-12, 08; 800 LV 3.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 53, McCain 40

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

It is OVER!

Landslide Baby Landslide!

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Eternal:

Yikes,

Did they change their party ID or other internals?

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Commander_King:

I think hotline and Rasmussen need to catch up to battleground and gallup.

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DTM:

@Eternal

If you go back through their chart, it looks like 10/7 was a relatively good day for McCain. That day just dropped off, and was apparently replaced with a day that was relatively much better for Obama.

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kerrchdavis:

TIED RACE BY SUNDAY! you heard it here SECOND!

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masselo:

Lord Jesus ---- please have mercy on macshame

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Basil:

Obama Tsunami!

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kerrchdavis:

Polls are tightening. McCain is surging.

TIED RACE BY SUNDAY!

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Eternal:

Thanks DTM, that is a 9 point swing in a week...

Wow...

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Boris_Dieter:

I see you guys have scared away all of the Pitbull with Lipstick and the War Hero's (you didn't know he was a war hero?)acolytes. Don't make fun of the word, acolytes; it's a perfectly good word, and there's no frigg'n reason that these sites should not be a place where a bit of education takes place. I've learned a lot about polling and some of you might have an improved vocabulary. I am waiting for our first African-American president-to-be to inflict the coup d'grace at Hofstra University tomorrow.

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political_junki:

To think that McCain would have had a really good chance with Mitt Romney but he chose to select that venal baboon as VP...That decision alone disqualifies him from presidency...

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muckinello:

What's going up? The acorn-he-is-a-muslim-ayers-fistbump-whithey-g'damm-america-inexperience-did-I-mention-muslim strategy is not working????

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jeepdad:

Now if Gallup will stay at +10 or even improve a bit, all will be well going into the last debate.

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huetdebd:

up by 13? i love it. crossing my fingers and knocking on wood that people vote that way. under bush we had to deal with a terrorist attack. two wars..nuclear threats from n.korea, iran. a deep recession. record deficit and constitutional violations from bush as well. obama has his work cut out for him when he becomes pres. but at least we will see light at the end of the tunnel. if mccain is elected that light would be a train running us over.

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muckinello:

Forgot to mention.. lipstik-on-a-pig.

Next week John McCain will try to link Obama to Homer Simpson!

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NW Patrick:

Americans simply can't afford 8 more years of the most scandalous political party in American history. We should have a public hanging of this administration for their crimes.

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straight talk:

This game is over! I don't not see McCain winning at all. My suprise state that I do think Obama wins is North Carolina and Virginia. But he just might sweep them all. John is in Pennsylvania where he is down about the same margin as Michigan. Awful Campain. They are taking the eye off the ball in FLorida! Obama is blitzing the ground and air in Ohio! Look for him to lock that state up after Bill comes to town!

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wakeup:

The Ayers push will work once the money trail for Woods and Annenberg is properly reported.

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Boris_Dieter:

I've also been amused by all the hand-wringing and qualifications among GOP Big-Government converts. Obviously The Big Bad Government-- that is "US," have managed to provide enough assurance to markets that we won't permit a total collapse. In other words, we've provided the smug schmucks of the finance world a safety net. The reason our GOP converts are nervous about it, is because it raises the obvious question, "Why aren't you and I and all the 'common folk' entitled to a real safety net?" At much lower cost we should be providing a minimum level of health care and housing security for everyone. It would be good for the economy and, coincidentally, it would be the just thing to do.

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jonny87:

survey usa

ohio: 50 obama, 45 mac

pensyl:55 obama, 40 mac

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kerrchdavis:

tied race by this Sunday!

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Trosen:

Obviously this poll looks good. But keep in mind in "battleground" states, they still include places like PA, MN, MI, and IA.. places that have not really been "battlegrounds" for a while now. I'd rather see polls like these condensed to the true remaining battleground states. (FL, OH, NC, MO, CO)

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NW Patrick:

But WAIT guys. If the stock market has TWO good days in a row, the polls will WILDLY SWING back to McCain because 8 years will be forgotten, gas will be 1.39 a gallon, home prices will increase, 401K statements will instantly rebound, and the price of food will drop by 25%. Look for it! HA!

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NW Patrick:

I think I LOVE CALIFORNIANS! (This coming from an Oregonian.) Invade Nevada! Invade!!!!

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-nevada14-2008oct14,0,3621857.story

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Save US:

@kerrchdavis:

"tied race by this Sunday!"

Good try, but I am sorry to tell you, however much u try... u can't sound as stupid as boomshak... :)

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sunnymi:
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kerrchdavis:

look, this poll is clearly an outlier. They poll MICHIGAN where Obama is ahead by about 200, skewing the entire poll.

This whole thing stink of liberal bias. Plus, the internals are crap.

tied race by SUnday.

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JFactor:

This pollster is garbage. Few days ago it was Obama +3 and now it's Obama +13? Just pure garbage.
_________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Trosen:

Oh, and I forgot to mention NV.

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1magine:

This pollster is imho very irratic. I would not, as much as I love to see these nice numbers, trust their numbers or their trending. A national poll or even a battleground (whatever that is supposed to be) should have at least 1,000 - 1,500 people. 800 people polled in a wide range of areas is too prone to be screwed up. OH is a battleground - ? ok. - Where do you poll? if you poll exclusively within the 'C' you results will be skewed, if you don't weight city/urban areas to rural areas properly the results become skewed.

Honestly - statewide trackers, and the better national trackers, give a better sense of the race ad the trending. Gallup and Ras may have different numbers, but we all understand BO has at least a 5% lead which has been steady for 2-3 weeks. That is sufficient to know. If BO takes 5% into election day - he has a 99.5% liklihood of winning 270 EVs. And a 75% liklihood of winning 355 EV. Combined with the statewide trackers in NH, PA, IA, NM, CO - that is more than enough information at this point. Now - stop looking at polls and start making some phone calls for the Dems.

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straight talk:

The Ayers Ads has painted the McCain Camp in a corner as inciting hate and racism. Plus McCain has ties in his past to radicals that he does not want reported. If he believes that Obama hangs with terroist than he needs to say it to Obama Face. If he does that, he would be subjected to the race card! It would be the equivelant of Bob Dole falling off stage! lol Just my Opinion!

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NW Patrick:

Trosen BATTLEGROUND is the name of the poll LOL It's not JUST a poll of BG states. Someone correct me if I'm wrong!:)

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Keep VA Red:

I have a couple of questions for the flaming liberals on this site (yes, that's what you all are, just admit it). Here they are:

1. Do you really expect "That One's" vote numbers to be as high as his poll numbers? The Dems rely on a constitutent base that is generally lazy and can't manage to get to work. I don't believe in the Bradley effect, I believe it is because the heart of your party is in the lower class. There's a reason why so many of them are there ... not a lack of ability, but a lack of motivation. I know, I grew up with them!

2. Do you realize that to pay for all the stuff that you guys want to do, we are ALL going to have to pay a lot more in taxes? The upper 5%, even with all their evil money that you guys like to demonize, can't pay for all that stuff that Obama, Pelosi and Reid want to do. Is there anyone in this country that still believes the government should not spend more than it can raise?

3. Do you realize that income redistribution is futile? You take money and redistribute it as "tax cuts" to people who aren't paying taxes anyway and what do you think they are going to do with it? I can tell you from watching them growing up what they will do with it. They will not invest it in a better future. They will not invest it in anything to make their kids lives better. They will spend 90% of it on cigarettes, beer, drugs, gambling, lottery tickets and the like. All you are doing is putting more money in the hands of people who already don't know how to make wise money choices. When was the last time a social welfare program actually accomplished anything other than breeding dependency on the government?

The NY Times (aka Obama Times) even published an editorial today that said Obama, Pelosi & Reid would undertake the greatest social experiment in decades at the expense of the American people and that the backlash will be enormous. Enjoy 4 years, you probably won't get any more than that.

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Boris_Dieter:

Wakeup you are deluded beyond belief, and you actually believe that if there were REAL dirt on Obama that the Clintons wouldn't have nailed him with it? The fact is that McCain's campaign and his past associations have put him in touch with secessionists who say they'd rather be buried under manure than under the American flag; McCain has embraced individuals who believe that the Catholic Church is an abomination; he's hired campaign staff who once labeled him an adulterer (which he's confessed to); and he's got a running mate from a church with a pastor who believes that misery and violence against Jews is brought on by their refusal to embrace Christ as the Savior. Mccain was condemned for unethical conduct by the Senate, and "palled" around with one of the most disgusting miscreants in financial history, Charles Keating. And you want to tell us about some imminent revelation about Obama that the nasty Clintons didn't uncover. Gimme a break and go back to the rock or dung heap where the rest of your ilk dwell.

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kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

I hear they are running out of blue paint in VA. Is that true?

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huetdebd:

@ keep VA red

see on november 5th. i'll be on here. will you?

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muckinello:

@keep,
Thanks for Bush and his legacy!
If that moron managed two terms, I have no dounbt that we can manage that as well.
As far as the rest... hold on and we will see on Nov.4. I will be knocking on doors and bussing people to the polls, what are you doing to "keep VA red"???

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wakeup:

"Inciting hate and racism"... does anyone remember Rev Wright? You should thank McCain for not bringing that subject up.

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Keep VA Red:

I see you have no answers to hard questions, just rhetoric. I thought that would be the case.

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NW Patrick:

Keep VA Red can you kiss my ass? Do you realize your CONSERVATIVE BASTARD president created the largest fiscal deficit in the history of mankind? Does your view hold ANY truth around the United States? OBVIOUSLY NOT since you getting your asses handed to you.

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cmbat:

@Keep VA Red-

To your points, in order...

1) Obama consistently outperformed polling in the primaries, as did turnout. The Democratic party is not just made up of the lower class by any stretch. Educated upper-middle class Americans lean Democrat. It's the low-end religious nuts that favor the Republican party. There won't be an issue on Election Day with turnout, and I suspect Obama will beat the closing day polling averages by a point or two.

2) Do YOU realize that what got us into this mess is the fact that the country as a whole hasn't been paying for what it has been spending? If Iraq had never happened, we'd be in better shape. If the Bush tax cuts for the rich had never happened, we'd be in better shape. You Republicans that believe that money grows on trees are what caused this financial mess. I don't want my kids growing up to believe that US Dollars = Monopoly money, and I want them to be responsible for their finances. We do that by paying for what we spend as we go. Having said that, by ending the war in Iraq and making some cuts across the board and revisiting how DoD works, Obama can concentrate more on the spending side than the tax side, especially in the first year or two. After things stabilize, the rich should pay the share they used to pay before Dildo-head took office.

3) The New Deal. And the reality is that giving money to lazy people doesn't do anything, but demanding that American businesses employee Americans in America and pay them based on the cost of living in the country, including healthcare, etc., does matter and makes the economybetter.

And so here is the real question for you. Since Bush is going out on a economic low for people across the country and the biggest financial mess in history, do you really believe that after Obama's first four years, people will say that they aren't better off? See you in 2016 when you can run a Jindal/Palin ticket and get thumped again.

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Commander_King:

Keep VA red.....first of all Virginia is going blue.Secondly...you are almost as ignorant as boomshak.

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kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

"The Dems rely on a constitutent base that is generally lazy and can't manage to get to work."

but..but..McCain said "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" no?

btw, what are you going to do on Nov 4th when the media projects an Obama landslide win?

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wakeup:

The Keating thing is too complex to become an issue. A 13 minute video on the subject??? Ayers giving Obama $ and how Obama spent it can be shown with a chart on paper.

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Dana Adini:

Keep VA red

the fact that your ticket is spending a fortune and time in PA where 10 consecutive polls have showed them trailing double digits, while they are in a fight in VA, NC, Ohio, Indiana says all you need to know about the judgment of John McCain

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NW Patrick:

Keep VA Red the largest debt in the history of mankind after 8 years of Republican control in the white house, 12 in the congress, isn't rhetoric "my friend" it's ****ing FACT!
EDUCATE!

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kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

I've started wiping my ass with McCain yard signs. They're cheaper than TP at the moment.

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Dana Adini:

JTfactor

two weeks ago when GW was the only pollster to show this race within the MOE, all the GOP talking heads were saying how this was the only reliable poll.

LOLOLOL

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huetdebd:

mccain graduated 495 out of 500. obama was top of his class. president of the law reveiw. who would you rather have deal with new and complex problems? if i didn't like anything else or if i was on the fence this would be enough for me.

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wakeup:

PA is closer than you think...

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Boris_Dieter:

KEEP VA RED:

I don't mind paying some more in taxes for better infrastructure, a genuine health insurance for everyone, better trained teachers, and improved opportunities for the many people we waste and flush down the sewer. I'd rather pay that than contribute 10billion a month in Iraq or provide useless tax deductions for people in million dollar plus loans. I totally favor stiff taxes in inheritance (as did Andrew Carnegie, a real and consistent capitalist). As it happens I favor lower capital gains taxes, except for unimproved property and for currently had capital assets (why provide incentives for already invested-in assets). I also favor lower income taxes, but many fewer deductions and a somewhat higher sales tax on all but medicine and food. I favor higher taxes on autos that are above a certain size and consume more gas per mile traveled, for obvious and the less obvious reason that large vehicle produce geometrically greater damage on roads and should pay a higher amount. No one has caused more costly damage to the taxpayer than the savings and loan fiascos and the interest on national debt produced by GOP presidents (Reagan and Bush). Please GOP dopes, there is absolutely no question that since WWII fiscal sanity, economic growth, and personal income enhancement have all been more felicitous during Democratic administration. Those are the facts. Period. And so if it is fiscal adulthood and economic growth that is of concern, you should, ceteris paribus, be voting for Democratic presidential candidates. If you want more national debt and an explosion of the national debt and skyrocketing debt interest burdens, as well as greater income inequality, vote GOP. Thems the facts Jack.

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kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

"PA is closer than you think..."

Ok, wakeup, we'll take your word for it. Just coz YOU said so though, ok?

In fact, why even HAVE polling? Lets just ask you what you think.

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cmbat:

@Boris-

Amen.

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muckinello:

@wakeup
Where do you get your news from? Marvel comics?
PA may be closer than +15 and you can dance in the streets if we win it by 10, OK?

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Keep VA Red:

cmbt:

When was the last time you heard Obama say that he was going to have a balanced budget? I think "never" is the answer to that question, so the trend will continue and my children will be paying for his experiments.

I don't believe that the economy will get better under Obama. I believe that at the end of his four years we will be worse off. When politicians try to dictate business decisions, they end up driving businesses out of business. His corporate tax rate increases will cost Americans jobs. Corporations cease to exist if they don't make a profit. So, the more the Government takes, the more they have to raise prices or cut costs (aka jobs). Add to that mandatory health care costs and you just make the situation worse. There is a reason that businesses relocate to other countries and ship jobs overseas -- our Government punishes them for success and they can better fulfill their only reason for being (profits) that way.

As for the stupidity of Bush and the Republican spending spree he started, I believe McCain would reign that it. At least he would do a better job than your guy. As with every election, this is a lesser-of-two-evils approach. For me, McCain is the lesser.

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carl29:

wakeup,

You are so right, here is an article talking about how good things are for McCain in PA:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/13/AR2008101302170.html?wpisrc=newsletter&wpisrc=newsletter&sid=ST2008101400852&s_pos=

Man, you are darn right :-)

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wakeup:

huetdebd, If Obama was at the top of his class why does he not release his papers? Or better yet how about an article he wrote for the Review?

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kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

If his campaign is any reflection of how he would run the country, your candidate would be a complete joke of a President.

Anyway, your state is turning blue. Can I get a confirmation on that paint rumor?

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carl29:

Just to make a little history,

In 2004:

GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/11 - 10/14
Bush 49% Kerry 46% Bush +3

In 2008:

GW/Battleground Tracking 10/08 - 10/13 800 LV Obama 53 Bush 40 Obama +13


Wow...you couldn't tell the difference :-)!!

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muckinello:

@keep
If McCain runs the country the way he ran his campaign...
I mean, I could at least understand the guy if he kept ONE position. Can't start answering his point that he shifts again!
We know that sacrifices are coming: I rather do them for Obama!

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cmbat:

@Keep-

You are delusional. McBush sold himself to the Roves and oil companies of the world to win this campaign, and he's a straight-up continuation of their corporate and fiscal policies that have no grounding in reality.

You said: "Add to that mandatory health care costs and you just make the situation worse." You miss the whole point. One of the problems for American businesses right now is that they have to pay for employee healthcare, at a rate of about 6% of revenue for large businesses. How are Michigan car companies supposed to be globally competitive with this burden? Take it out of their hands and yank the hundreds of billions that go into the pockets of the Boards of insurance companies and you'll help business while reducing costs.

Obama has talked plenty about the need to ultimately reduce the deficit and debt, and that is balancing the budget. In the current mess, my opinion is that he shouldn't try to do it in the first year because you need to stabilize the public with another stimulus package, reign in spending, end the war in Iraq, and start turning the tax code so that businesses do get exemptions...if they keep jobs here, if they make cars with higher mpg standards, if they promote a new type of energy, etc. The tax code should favor corporations that HELP THE AMERICAN ECONOMY. That's the diametric opposite of what the Republicans have been doing. We're $11 trillion in real debt and $53 trillion in outlay debt, and we're borrowing money from Asia to buy oil from terrorists. NOTHING ABOUT REPUBLICAN POLICY IS GOOD FOR AMERICA'S ECONOMIC OR NATIONAL SECURITY. And this time, you aren't going to scare working class Americans with your religious fear tactics or gay marriage amendments. ENOUGH.

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wakeup:

Polling is information we have to make sense of... when it confounds we have to seek the truth.

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Keep VA Red:

kerrch,

you like to rail on Boomshak for being an idiot (and I happen to agree), but when was the last time you posted and "intelligent and civil comment"?

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Adam:

I still can't figure out why McCain didn't pick Tim Pawlenty.

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straight talk:

McCain should be tryin to hold onto Ohio and Florida! He will not be able to get Pennsylvania! It is out of reach and he is running out of time! And he only has one debate to lay out his plans! I hear he is planning to talk about Ayers tommorrow! I think that will be political suicide!

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Keep VA Red:

cmbt,

Have you read his health care plan? He intends to mandate that employers provide it or pay into a national slush fund so that the government can provide it. Either way, corporations will be funding it.

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kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

The lack of civility in my comments is a direct result of the lack of intelligence in yours.

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NW Patrick:

Keep VA Red why does your party like murdering women and children with bombs? Is that Christian? What would Jesus do?

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Boris_Dieter:

@Keep VA Red; @Wakeup

If fiscal responsibility is high on your list of values, then why would you vote for McCain, who clearly wants to continue the Bush program of all-war, all-the-time and no way to pay for them and let's keep the tax cuts and even extend them so that deficits and debt interest continue to skyrocket? Earmarks (ugh), waste, and fraud, even if you eliminated all of those, would be a drop in the fiscal-hole-bucket. So, on fiscal grounds, explain your affection for the real, cosmic, even cosmic-squared free-spending Republican candidates?

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kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

although at least you do admit that boomshak is an idiot. I do commend you for this :)

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Viperlord:

Keep VA Red, you do realize that McCain's health care plan will cost MORE than Obama's according to experts on the subject? (I believe it was 2.1 trillion to 1.7 trillion or something along those lines)

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NW Patrick:

I hope McCain brings up Ayers. I can't wait!:) He'll be in for a BIG surprise with Obama's response.

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Stillow:

@NW Patrick

@NW Patrick:

The GOp murder women and children?? Thank God nuts like you never get power. You sound like an anti soldier hippie freak fro mthe 60's.

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Keep VA Red:

kerrch,

you strike me as one of those people who likes to make themselves feel better by picking on other people. you lack original thought and any kind of developed emotional intelligence and self esteem, so you resort to the only thing you know to get emotional satisfaction -- striking out at others. It's sad. Maybe you should see a counselor about that.

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RS:

@keep VA red:
Do you realize McCain/Palin, "guided" by Georgian lobbyist Randy Scheunemann, want another cold war or even an actual war with Russia - over freakin' Georgia and Ukraine? I believe Paul Wolfowitz (who will no doubt make a comeback, he's smart) even wants to start another nuclear arms race with... China!

Yeah, so if you really believe that a man managed by lobbyists is going to rein in special interest funding (where much of it goes to the military-industrial complex and more wars) and balance the budget, man... what are you smokin'?

There's going to be deficit spending over the next four years, period. I'd rather have it done to boost the US economy than in wars with Russia and China, thank you very much.

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kerrchdavis:

@Stillow

look who's back!! you gonna join us here on Nov. 4th for the party?

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Viperlord:

It may have been billions, not trillions, it's been a while since I read the articles on the subject.

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muckinello:

I see this election as a fundamental clash of political ideology. I simply think that the free-market conservatives had their shot and they ****ed up the country. At this point, I see the value of copying some out of the playbook of European socialdemocracies.
Is that OK for you keep?

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Keep VA Red:

muck: Hell no...ask the Germans what their marginal tax rate is ... somewhere north of 50% ... why even bother going to work...

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wakeup:

Boris, comrade, taxing job creators to give 40% a check might sound good coming from a master orator like Obama, but on paper it is socialism.

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kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

you're very wrong, although I can understand why you feel that way. Nobody likes to be criticized, especially when it's for lacking intelligence, and it is only natural that you would start to get defensive.

We can discuss intelligent issues all day long and neither you nor I will be changing our stance. Now, ask yourself this question: who came in here and started calling everyone a "flaming liberal" to get this entire dialogue going?

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cmbat:

@Keep VA Red-

I have read the plan. I've read both candidates plans in depth, or at least the McBush one as much as is there, which isn't a ton. But over the last month, as things have changed dramatically, I believe that the door will be open for the next President to take a top-down approach to the way our country operates and look at everything from a new perspective. I also think that the Democrats are going to end up with 58 seats in the Senate and a bigger House margin, and in the end, the President has some degree of final say, but you have to work with Congress, even if they are in your party. I fully expect at this point everyone to throw out their "plans" and listen to each other's ideas, and in the end, a central-pool health care system a la Medicare for all is much better for solving the healthcare crisis (there is one in this country between costs, lack of solutions, and money filtered out of the system to the health care CEOs). It would take the burden off of business, and that is going to be the key to getting out of this mess. Granted, that is just my read on the situation since it isn't in Obama's "plan," but I have a few contacts in Washington that work for Congresspeople, and the talk of top-down review is already in place.

The solution to this mess lies in streamlining our economy, providing healthcare for all, balancing the budget, drawing down DoD spending (get out of Iraq), and spending on infrastructure for the next 5 years. That is more in line with the Democratic ideals than the Republican ideals, which would be to keep cutting taxes, keep waging war abroad for energy corporations, keep borrowing from China, and keep running up deficits that make the US Dollar worthless. It is a night and day difference, and I've already written about this for the last eight months:

http://www.cmbat.com

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wakeup:

A nice steady day on Wall St... good for the country, bad for Obama.

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Stillow:

@muckinello
Go look up up unemployment rates in Europe and see if Socialism works. You big g'ment libs are wacked out. At what point in your lives did you decide your to stupid to run your own lives and want the g'ment to tell you hwat you can and cannot do, everything from which doctor to see to what kind of light bulb you can use....Are you so weak minded you cannot do things for yourself, you need someone else to work hard so they can provide you with your free g'ment program designed to give you just enough scraps to sustain yourself?

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Viperlord:

Socialism HA! You right wingers do know the Democratic Party is further to the right than some European conservative parties? And that both parties are capitalist? Epic fail is epic.

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Viperlord:

Big government libs? You idiotic conservatives have noticed the massive swelling of size in government under the last three Republican Presidents?

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Keep VA Red:

kerrch,

you can call me a "flaming conservative" I'm proud of my beliefs. If a little label hurts your feelings, maybe you should try and figure out why,

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Stillow:

Where's the change at you lbs? All I hear is you want change? I see ACORN committing fraud everywhere supported by prominant left wingers, including Obama. I see Mahoney in FL using tax dollars to pay hush money to his mistress. Ya got Obama buddies with anti american freaks like Ayers....and now ya basically wanna hand over all decision making over your life to the g'ment...got a borken leg? Go wait in line for two weeks and see our g'ment educated doctor........change, ya right.

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muckinello:

@keep and stillow:
You are **** out of luck. I work for a German company and travel to Europe 5-6 times a year. I own property over there and was hospitalized over there. I have direct experience (do any of you?). If you want we can talk forever, but without you guys knowing what you are talking about it's worthless

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huetdebd:

@wakeup

why won't obama release his papers? has anyone asked him to? are they locked up in some secrete harvard dungeon? if you went to college, do you have your papers still? and what about mccain? did he even write any papers? highly doubt that while he was out getting drunk and chasing girls he had time to write any papers. he barely graduated. bet admiral daddy got him his diploma.

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kerrchdavis:

@Keep VA Red

Many socialist countries such as Sweden have tax rates far higher than we do? ANd you know what, they also happen to have a higher standard of living. They also show up for work.

In fact, if you look up the 10 countries in the world that have the highest developmental index (a measure for standard of living) you'll see that we get beat pretty badly by a number of countries with tax rates higher than ours. Many of these countries are even socialist.

Now, I am in no way pushing socialism. However, as a result of the higher tax rates, the governments of these respective countries are able to offer their citizens better health care, social programs, infrastructure etc. Citizens, though taxed at a higher rate, save money by receiving free - cheap health care and education that also is more effective than what our private sector offers here.

So, don't feel like higher taxes necessarily marks the end of civilization.

____________________

Viperlord:

I suggest we just ignore Stillow everyone. He has lapped up every word of propaganda that has come from the Rethuglican Party without once glancing at the facts.

____________________

wakeup:

Bush is not a conservative. Having said that... we await the socialist triumvirate; Obama, Reid, Peolsi.

____________________

carl29:

Keep VA Red,

OK... we are LIBERAL, and you are CONSERVATIVE :-) You are happy for whom you are, and we are happy for whom we are. I am not going to offend you for your beliefs, and I expect the same from you. Nice day!!!

____________________

Stillow:

@muckinello

Were you put i nthe hospital for mental illness by any chance?

____________________

carl29:

"we await the socialist triumvirate; Obama, Reid, Peolsi."

Sweet :-)!!!!

____________________

Viperlord:

http://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2008 Far right bull**** as usual.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@stillow

"and now ya basically wanna hand over all decision making over your life to the g'ment"

stop pulling bull**** out of your ass. go ahead and find us a source for this. PLEASE TELL ME HOW OBAMA GETTING ELECTED MEANS THE GOVERNMENT GETS TO PICK WHO I MARRY, WHAT I EAT, WHERE I LIVE.

If you don't like it, get your ass out of the country. Oh wait, the rest of the world loves him even more than we do.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

carl, you need to roll back and read all the comments. This is a discussion between me and kerrch and I never said anything offensive. kerrch is the one throwing out personal insults and venemous comments, not me.

____________________

wakeup:

Oil at $80... good news for the country, bad news for Obama, OPEC, Chavez, & Putin.

____________________

Viperlord:

Keep has actually been somewhat civil, so back off of him a little. But as for Stillow and wakeup, carry on disemboweling their bull****.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

actually, the label didn't hurt my feelings one bit. But if you're going to come in here and start labeling us, then don't start crying when I label back.

And if a few personal insults offended you, then I regret to inform you that I am not your mother and perhaps you should go crying to her instead.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Stillow:

Higher unemployment in Europe does result from better unemployment benefits, during which many of these folks are also provided re-training and relocation benefits to locate where jobs are. The fact is that GDP/capita is equal in those places to our, with much lower energy input. In fact, those countries produce the same standard of living as the U.S. on much smaller land, with less energy, and with far fewer social spillovers (e.g., homelessness, higher crime, greater mental illness, higher infant mortality, and by golly those immoral socialists have lower teen pregnancy than we do at every level of income). Go peddle your notion of American capitalism is best somewhere else. I intend to stay here and fight for the right of Americans to produce as high a standard of living as those Euro-trash folks we bailed out in the great WWII. Quit contributing to Americans' delusion about ourselves. We are being kicked in the ass by the entire world because we keep following an 18th century ideology, peddled by narrow interests who benefit from the collective delusion it produces.

____________________

Dana Adini:

guys relax. After tomorrow's debate, three kneeldowns and run out the clock....It's over

____________________

huetdebd:

@ keep VA red

kerrch is insulting you because you are trying to spit out a bunch of crap that is not true and as you can tell most of us on this site like most of the country don't buy it. we are sick and tired of what the republicans have done with our country and YES...we are made and venemous. we have had enough. so any attempt to cover up the failours of the repbulicans and john mccain is seen to us as an attack on OUR future. we will not go through another 8 years of this crap. enough! go to fix news site and blog over there or something.

____________________

Stillow:

@Viperlord
Try the Washngton Post and the Wall Stret Journal...where is your change at? Or does your change mean simply doing the same thing but with a D instead of an R?

____________________

DTM:

To answer the questions:

(1) Polling is not an exact science, but I actually think it is more likely the polls will underestimate rather than overestimate Obama's support.

(2) We have room for taxes on the highest-income Americans to increase considerably without a recessionary effect (note by the way that this is a statement against personal interest, given my household's income prospects over the next several years).

(3) Broad-based consumption is good for the overall economy.

____________________

wakeup:

Did I just read about the love for Obama? Round up the kids for another song. This cult of personality will be institutionalized! All he needs is a special salute...

____________________

carl29:

My dear Conservative/McCain-supporters fellow bloggers, don't worry. Everything is going fine for you. Listen to McCain, we are where he wants us to be, which is great because we like where we are, nice to see such harmony. Polls? Don't pay attention to them, remember: 1) those polls are flawed and biased 2) the Bradley effect is just rampant 3) this is a right/center country and will never elect Obama

Don't you have more than enough reasons to celebrate? C'mon start planning the party for election night :-)!!!!

____________________

muckinello:

@ Stillow:
@muckinello
Were you put i nthe hospital for mental illness by any chance?

No, I was not in your section. But thanks for asking.

And you may want to know that my condition was sucessfully treated there (as opposed to a previous stint in a US hospital). Ah, of course, I had a TV in my room here so... you guys hooked at Fox News could not survive there!

____________________

Keep VA Red:

kerrch ... I never said I was offended ... I just observed that you are "offensive" ... I have thick skin and I enjoy the banter ...

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

taps starts to play as boomcrack cowers in a corner of some gutted southern state.....

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@stillow

"Try the Washngton Post and the Wall Stret Journal...where is your change at? Or does your change mean simply doing the same thing but with a D instead of an R?"

lol, you're pathetic. the last time I checked, it was YOUR candidate that votes with Bush 90% and wants to continue his policies.

____________________

DTM:

By the way, the citation for Obama's case note is 103 Harv. L. Rev. 823.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

look, I get personal and offensive because I am angry and what has happened to this country and I get particularly agitated at people that want to keep us going down the same path.

However, as much as you might not believe me, I think you are entitled to your opinion and I respect that.

____________________

Stillow:

Come on libs, your socialists just like Obama...Obama said i nthe debate health care was a right....why? Well how about food, is it a right for me to buy your food too? How about a car to get to work, do I need to buy your car now too? Clothing, is that a right also? What about TV's, radios, gas, shoes, toothburhses....are those all my responsibility to buy for you now also? Perahps if liberals weren't opposed to the work for welfare program I could jump on board, but the fact you simply wanna "give" my money away ticks me off...I work for what I have, no g'ment hand out bought my house or car. Give give give, tax tax tax....ya'll wanna band everything from handguns to light bulbs....in CA right now there's legislation to take over thermastats so the g'ment can dictate how cold you keep your hous ei nthe summer. Last year I paid $39,000 in income tax....how much do you want from me, I get up at 4:45AM and work all day long......why? So I can send a monthly check to the guy who goes to the lake all day? Seriously, at what point in your lives did hard work become meaningless to you...and all that matters is giving g'ment as much power as possible over your life...paying high taxes is patriotic, its my duty, what do I get to show for my taxes? Free abortion clinics and food stamps for peole who do not work?

____________________

Keep VA Red:

kerrch ... but what happened to civility in America ... respect is something that is not just held in one's beliefs, but also demonstrated in one's actions and words!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

TO ALL THE GOP DEFENDERS AND ALLEGED CONSERVATIVES:

I don't give a crap about Democrats or Republicans. I care about how well the U.S. is doing. We are getting the crap kicked out of us, and if we really cared about our nation, we would stop deluding one another about how great we are. On just about any measure of social progress, including income, we are slipping badly. A lot of it stems from the measly investment in human capital and another cause is that we produce less relative to energy input than our competitors. In other words we are wasteful respecting both people and energy. There is a lot more too, including perverse incentives that reward activity for not much value added, and an example of a particularly egregious policy is providing hedge fund managers the benefit of having their income taxed at capital gains rates. Perhaps the most wasteful activity and highest density of perverse incentives are the array of tax benefits for powerful interests for not doing much. Those wasteful practices are far more damaging to our economy than are the total combined effect of our measly social welfare programs. Indeed, if you take social security out of the picture, the U.S. has virtually no social welfare program to speak of. For the sake of the country, conservatives start to think about an approach that brings conservatism into the globalized economy. Let's also understand that at least as damaging as whatever liberal excesses have been, those are nothing compared to the cost of what is being disguised by conservative propaganda. That's the end of my long-winded, bloated posts.

____________________

wakeup:

DTM, is that true? Is there a way to read these? I am not being sarcastic. I would honestly love to read them.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Keep VA Red

"kerrch ... but what happened to civility in America ... respect is something that is not just held in one's beliefs, but also demonstrated in one's actions and words!"

I'm sure I will not be the last to point out that you are a pretty big hypocrite if you emphasize civility and respect yet you condone the McCain/Palin campaign and what they have been up to the last few weeks.

give me a break.

____________________

Keep VA Red:

There is an easy way to rip power from the politicians, put it back into the hands of the American people and make sure that every person pays his or her fair share of the burden, while protecting the poor, elderly, etc from the burden of particpating in funding our progress. It would also massively stimulate the economy and American business. We should all be on board with dispensing of the income tax system ... read up on the FairTax!

www.fairtax.org

____________________

Keep VA Red:

kerrch, i was talking about you ... not the politicians!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@stillow

I work pretty hard too. And yet I see tax break after tax break given to the wealthy. Do I not deserve more money for MY work?

And who the hell is even saying that taxes are going to be raised??

____________________

DTM:

@wakeup

Yes, it is true. Student case notes are not signed in the HLR, but both the HLR and the Obama Campaign have confirmed that is Obama's case note (there was a Politico story to that effect).

To get a copy you can go to a law library, or ask a lawyer with access to Westlaw or LexisNexis. A few lawyer-bloggers have also read the note and provided commentary (the consensus appears to be it is a fairly straightforward and legally uncontroversial piece).

____________________

pbcrunch:

I remember when this poll was showing a +2 McCain lead and conservatives were blaring about how this was the most accurate poll. I wonder if they think the same or has Zogby become their pollster of choice? Or maybe that new tracking polls that "only" shows a +2 Obama lead?

____________________

DTM:

And it turns out taxprof posted a PDF of the note, so here is the link:

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/files/obama_case_comment.pdf

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@keep VA red

lol! so you think I should be civil and respectful but you don't hold that same standard for the politicians you support?

that's a pretty pathetic double standard.

I'm off to bed. It's late in China and I have a plane to catch in the morning.

ciao everyone. Stillow, don't forget to be here on the 5th of Nov.

____________________

NMMatt:

pbcrunch: exactly!

Here's a hint, if you conservatives want to latch onto a single poll as being the best, or one to go by, or what not, try to at least be consistent about it.

____________________

Stillow:

@kerrchdavis

YES!!!! You should get more of your money and so shold everyone!! You ifnally get it. Poor people do not create jobs, go to work tomorrow and ask the owner of your company if he is poor, hcances are he is a wealthy guy...investing his money and giving you and me jobs! Everyone needs to keep more of there money, get rid of the capital gains tax and you will see stock investment skyrocket. Obama cannot pay for his nearly trillion dollars in new spending without raising taxes...on everyone, sorry but the evil top 5 percent simply cannot pay it all. In addition, every program the g'ment imposes ends up costing ten times what they thought it would, so g'ment run health care will be a disaster and we will all pay for it.Everyone should get less taxes imposed on them, g'ment spending slashed by 60% across the board...ask people to work if they want a damn TV.
Like I said, I am all over it with you libs, I'll jump on board with social welfare as soon as your side stops oppsoign the work for welfare program....if they want a check, they can work at the local hopsitals, libraries, etc, etc, etc........the only reason you oppose it is cus your side wants them poor and needy so you can grow g'ment bigger and make people more stupid and more dependent on a system which will never help them, only tease them with scraps to survive on.

____________________

Viperlord:

http://www.politicalcompass.org/uselection2008 Wow. Obama is really a far left socialist isn't he? /sarcasm.

____________________

DCWylly:

Keep VA Red:

There is nothing fair about the "fair tax". Despite its claims, it is highly regressive, and will increase inequality. Also, it is almost completely unenforceable. Hmmn at 20% sales tax, I would start buying qroceries from Craigslist.

____________________

Viperlord:

That might just take the cake for the biggest load of conservative bull**** I've ever seen.

____________________

pbcrunch:

Oh, in case anybody needed anymore proof that RCP is in the tank for McCain: it has decided to include the IBD tracking poll that shows a +2 Obama lead today.

After explaining to Nate Silver over at 538 that they didn't include the R2K tracker because they, essentially, had to draw the line somewhere on the number of trackers they include (which is a good reason), RCP has included the Zogby and IBD trackers which, coincidentally, have shown substantially better results for McCain than R2K.

RCP = Tools.

____________________

Viperlord:

Well taxes are already highly regressive as we can see... For instance, Warren Buffet, the richest man in America (Unless someone passed him without my knowledge) said in 2006 he paid 19% of his income in taxes, while his employees paid 33% of theirs. Warren Buffet also supports Obama for President incidentally.

____________________

huetdebd:

obama is up in florida, north carolina, VA, W.VA, OH, MO. obama only needs to win one of these to become president. mccain has to win all of them.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@wakeup

Annenberg is a conservative Republican and a McCain supporter, idiot.

____________________

wakeup:

DTM, thanks. I just find it frustrating that I have to do this research instead of the media doing it for me... do you concur?

____________________

Keep VA Red:

DC -- have you actually read the book? It would refund to everyone the tax they would pay up to the poverty level. How is that regressive?

____________________

Stillow:

@DCWylly

hmmm, so if I pay 10 percent of my income and you pay 10 percent of yours, its UNFAIR? liberals..............its unfair because I earn more money? What if I work harder than you...what if I spent more time workinga nd you spent more time haivng fun...but its still unfair right?

____________________

wakeup:

Annenberg is long dead. The foundation gave $50M to Ayers to spend on "education." Where did that money go? I feel this question is valid.

____________________

liz from NJ:

I find an interesting trend in the Pollster's electoral map.

While there is an on going conversion from the yellow to light blue, the total number of yellows remain sort of constant, as new pinks are converted to yellow.

When VA turns blue, which pink will turn yellow to keep the yellow total constant?

____________________

huetdebd:

@stillow

if you work harder and make more money than great. but that doesn't mean that once you make a lot of money that you should be able to pay less by using tax loop holes. i don't think the rich should pay a higher percentage than the poor but they shouldn't pay less. that is unfair. your reward for being is not more money. the way things currently work than yes, the rich will get a tax increase so they can stop avoiding paying taxes.

____________________

Viperlord:

And furthermore, the rich currently seem to be paying less than everyone else, as Warren Buffet pointed out that he paid 19% of his income in taxes in 2006, while his employees paid 33% of theirs. But I guess he's just some evil liberal who makes things up right?

____________________

Stillow:

@huetdebd

100% agree with you, no loop holes...I favor a flat 10 percent income tax on everyone, no more, no less. No loop holes!

____________________

thoughtful:

@pbcrunch
I find that both RCP and Politico (not quite as bad) are right leaning. RCP is nakedly so just like Fox.

With regards this poll, I was posting last week that I thought we might have a tracker come in at the weekend with a 54 or even 55% Obama number.

The only reason why that has not happened yet, is that so far there has not been quite enough voters crossing directly from McCain to Obama.

There is a lot of campaigning and GOTVing to do to make this historic victory a reality.

____________________

wakeup:

Shannon,Dallas,Texas must work for ACORN... she has a dead man supporting McCain

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'm confused. So per McCain's campaign if Mickey Mouse is "registered" to vote.. how could he ACTUALLY vote on election day? This Acorn thing is such a fake news story. This alone should tell you they KNOW they are in trouble. Excuses for a failed campaign.

____________________

DCWylly:

Stillow

What if you are just the lazy ass son of a billionaire, or just stumble upon the money by chance.

What if your entire business model wouldn't work work if you didn't have a cheap educated work force, a court system that protected your property rights and settled disputes, an infrastructure that provided you with the inputs you need and could quickly get your products to market.

Name another country where Bill Gates would have become Bill Gates.

The whole system is designed to help you generate and preserve profit. A very small portion of government spending helps your average Joe.

THATS WHY!!!

____________________

NW Patrick:

But good to see McCain supporting ACORN in 2006. It's a great organization.

____________________

DTM:

@wakeup

The mainstream media is competing for market shares among relatively narrow segments of the population. Accordingly, you should probably not expect them to be answering every question you as an individual might have.

That said, as noted it was in fact Politico who reported on Obama's case note. I don't sense it was a particularly big story for Politico, however. Which, returning to my first point, suggests to me that there really isn't much of an audience for such reporting.

In fact, I think many McCain partisans are not all that interested in real reporting on these issues, despite what they may claim. Rather, they are more interested in pushing the meme that somehow Obama's true nature has been hidden from us, and in that sense real reporting about Obama's background actually works against their interests.

____________________

Stillow:

@NW Patrick:


Uhhh, because, its a two party scam. 1. ACORN registeres as many fake voters as possible. 2. Then find a "person of similar thinking" who works at a polling place, thus the vote gets cast...its not that difficult a scam to understand.....its the same way the Dems get tons of dead people to vote for them each year!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

you know it's a great day at the polls when all the right wing wackos crawl out of the woodwork.
as much as i miss boom, seeing stillow and keep va red is somewhat of a consolation.

stillow, red, et al., if you really want to make a difference with your "hey, did you know obama was an X?!" or "obama has ties to Y" or "Z on obama will come out, just wait" - why not go somewhere with this where it will matter? i mean, i appreciate your trolling as much as the next guy, perhaps even more, but you know that your value here is strictly entertainment, right?

if you really want to make a difference, get the message out, why not call Faux News, go door knocking (on weekdays, because on weekends, apparently McCampaign is closed and all doors are locked), write a country song with a "drill baby drill" chorus, start a support group for followers of McPolicies, or a militia or buy a black helicopter or something?! i mean, something, almost anything but wasting your time here.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Stillow you are nuts! ROFL You guys and your "theories." it's cute. Already excuse making for the BLOWOUT you are about to experience.

____________________

Viperlord:

This ACORN scam is a load of bull****. (I've said bull**** a lot today haven't I? I wonder why....) ACORN is in no way responsible. They are required by law to submit all registrations are they not? All they can do is flag the false ones, which they did, and the McSame campaign decided to accuse them of fraud because of the false registrations. Of course he used to be ACORN's best friend but let's ignore that right?

____________________

Stillow:

@NW Patrick:

If it were McCain or the GOp involved with ACORN and thousands and thousands of fake GOP voters wer ebeing registered, I promise you....youand all your liberal freinds would be crying foul.....it would be all over the media, it'd be the #1 story evywhere.....but since they are registering fake Dem voters everywhere, its not covered that much. You're side whines about voter fraud, then when its right in front of you, you ignore it, cus its ACORN and since it helps your side, its ok that they are illegally doing it.....amazing...you liberals are soemthin else!
I seriously doubt Mickey Mouse is a Dem anyway....

____________________

huetdebd:

i'm not OCD enough to argue about this all day.

____________________

Stillow:

Oh and last stat I saw was ACORN is being investigated now in 12 tates by the FBI.

____________________

wakeup:

DTM, I just want the news media to tell me more about a candidate than the speeches I see him give. This Ayers thing would not be so ugly if the media had researched this back in January. Do not report on the things I can see, report on the things that I can not see. You wonder why people research Khalidi and get the wrong idea... I do not have the research capabilites of NYT, but I see the NYT not reporting things I want to know.

____________________

wakeup:

Who put ACORN in the original bailout bill?

____________________

Stillow:

@wakeup:

Who do you think, the libs did.....Dems only care abotu corrption when it doesn't advance there cause.....and to be fair, so does the GOP, thus the problem with the system itself is exposed.

____________________

wakeup:

Who specificaly? I want a name (not to be rude). I would love to trace how exactly it got in there...

____________________

Observer:

One thing I don't see anywhere on the net in this campaign or anywhere in the campaigning of the various candidates is the issue of military spending, apart of course for the continuing cost of the Iraq war.

It seems to me that over the years the US and a majority of the voters of both parties have chosen military spending over welfare spending. In Europe most western countries have chosen the opposite. They thus have a generous welfare state (by US standards) but no military worth a candle. They have been able to do this because of the shield provided by the US.

The UK and France are exceptions as they have tried to do both but that has involved compromises in both directions. I can see the attraction of more welfare spending and I think a proper universal health care system is essential. But if there is more welfare spending then down the line something has to give.

In the short term (and all politicians are elected in the short term) it wil be a ballooning deficit as the US does what the UK and France struggled with for decades, i.e. try to maintain an imperial level of military spending plus build up a welfare state. It was military spending that doomed the USSR because they spent way more than they could sustain.

Politicians as always will seek to satisfy everybody and put off tough decisions for somebody else to make years later.

____________________

boomshak:

Wow, these guys have really blown a gasket.

Rasmussen O+5 for 3 days and these guys go through the roof for Obama.

Rasmussen O+5
Hotline O+6
Zogby O+6

Battleground O+13?

Huh?

Sorry, gotta call bullsh*t on this poll.

____________________

wakeup:

Watch this race narrow...

____________________

Stillow:

I don't know, the Dems have Mickey Mouse's vote this cycle, its gonna be tough to overcome the toon vote.

____________________

boomshak:

Think about it. This is a tracking poll based upon many days (I think 7?), anyway, a tracking poll that leaps 5 points in one day?

Literally, Obama would have had to poll +20 yesterday to get this result.

No, just no.

Obscenely rediculous poll.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@STILLOW

If ACORN faked registrations, they should be punished accordingly. Still, a far larger problem is the continued assumption by the GOP that there is a widespread conspiracy to steal elections by Democrats with fraudulent voters. In fact, no more than handful of actual fraudulent votes have ever been actually documented or prosecuted. Far more prevalent are illegal and unwarranted purges of voter lists and successful voter suppression by the GOP. We can all expect this election to be marred by the usual slow-downs and bottle-necks produced by GOP operatives. I concede that ACORN should be punished. You guys won't admit that it's in your interest to keep the numbers of voters down as much as possible, even if it involves threatening students that they might lose their scholarships, as was done in Virginia. What rot.

____________________

thoughtful:

@wakeup

These personal and character flaws on Obama are not the issues that the repubs have gone for. Well they have gone for but tried to make a much bigger deal to a diminished and more recently negative return.

The Repubs have gone way over the top so there is no credibility like the child porn legislation, like calling Palin a pig with lipstick.It all stems from being called out on those lies.

Had there been reasonableness and a consistency to the criticism then it might have stuck. In stead Palin and the campaign hyped it, as you guys have been doing.

On Friday McCain called Obama "a decent family man" that the voter should "not be afraid of as President of the United States". That He McCain would be a much better President. That Obama and McCain had fundamental differences in opinion. I guess that is one of them!

____________________

DTM:

@wakeup

I would agree the media does way too much of simply reporting what each campaign says without investigation.

But on the other hand, it also doesn't make sense for the media to spend its resources on issues just because a campaign thinks it would be helpful if those issues got a lot of media coverage.

And the Ayers issue is a good example. The media has done some investigating and reporting on Ayers, but there just isn't much of interest to report--Obama simply did not have a close relationship with Ayers, and in particular they didn't do anything nefarious together, so there is nothing much to report.

Yet the McCain Campaign wants wall-to-wall Ayers coverage, so keeps pushing the story and claiming that somehow the issue is being ignored. But from the media's perspective, the McCain Campaign wanting more Ayers coverage isn't reason enough to keep turning over the same rocks over and over again.

____________________

thoughtful:

@Boomshak

on November 4th if Obama polls nationally +5 or +13% it will still amount to an historic victory.

____________________

thoughtful:

Gallup has made a call 53-43% and are forecasting a huge turnout like no other!

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful

Don't count to much on poll numbers. Wasn't Reagan trailing Carter in the polls in October in 1980? Wasn't Bush trailing Gore in October?

____________________

thoughtful:

@Stillow

Gallup has got me confused with their different LV models on their site. They are fudging.

With regards to 1980 Obama appears to me to be more in the Ron Reagan role!

____________________

Stillow:

@thoughtful:


I think its what I always tell you, in the end people to tend to shy away from liberal candidates.....if hte Dems pick up as expected in Congress, the people may get a little nervous about electing liberals to control all 3 branches...espeically if the Dems get a filibuaster proof majority....

____________________

boomshak:

Gallup LV's O+6

Rasmussen O+5
Hotline O+6
Zogby O+6

Battleground O+13?

____________________

orange24:

Ah, the voter fraud argument. Every time repubs realize that they're going to use, it's always voter fraud. Funny coming from the party that perpetrated the greatest election fraud in the histor of mankind - the 2000 election. This is going to be a landslide, so get used to it. Obama will take at least 320 EV as traditional red states continue to fall like dominoes. If you don't like it, there are planes, trains, and automobiles heading out of the USA every second - get on one.

____________________

orange24:

Ah, the voter fraud argument. Every time repubs realize that they're going to lose, it's always voter fraud. Funny coming from the party that perpetrated the greatest election fraud in the history of mankind - the 2000 election. This is going to be a landslide, so get used to it. Obama will take at least 320 EV as traditional red states continue to fall like dominoes. If you don't like it, there are planes, trains, and automobiles heading out of the USA every second - get on one.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Stillow the fact that you would compare this election to Reagan or the last Bush election is odd. Obama is the Reagan in this election. McCain? FAIL.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Stillow the fact that you think a few registrations from MICKEY MOUSE will #1 BE ALLOWED TO VOTE once they show up to the polls is CRAZY and #2 that you somehow believe this will be so overwheling it would "STEAL" this landslide election. You are crazy man. Pure crazy. So sad you make excuses already for a loss that hasn't even occured yet. WHAT GIVES BRO? ROFL

____________________

MasterFramer:

"tied by sunday"?

man people are delusional...

____________________

mac_1103:

This is a tracking poll based upon many days (I think 7?), anyway, a tracking poll that leaps 5 points in one day?

Literally, Obama would have had to poll +20 yesterday to get this result.

To borrow a phrase, no, just no. It's a four day tracking poll, not seven, and they do not poll on Fridays or Saturdays. If you look at the trend with this in mind, then you realize that it's just a case of dropping a very good day for McCain from late last week and adding a very good day for Obama yesterday. I'd expect it to tighten a bit tomorrow.

____________________

mac_1103:

Gallup LV's O+6

Rasmussen O+5
Hotline O+6
Zogby O+6

Battleground O+13?

Why is the "?" more interesting than the fact that all have an "O+" > MOE?

____________________

artysan:

@DCWylly

'What if your entire business model wouldn't work if you didn't have a cheap educated work force..'

DC, can you not see how ludicrous and unfair your proposal is? If you feel that a successful business environment is sustained by this ridiculous contradiction, then Russia is the place for you! There is an unending supply of PHDs standing in line to sweep your floors to feed their families because they are too principled to be criminals.

I guess in your world-view, it would be a more accurate analogy to have a nice big pool of college graduates to flip your burgers, or maybe find your pants size at the Gap.

To use your own non sequitur, THAT'S WHY!!!

____________________

DCWylly:

@artysan

Why are you fixating on one item, when my argument was about, in total, what America does to make itself a good business environment.

Just the fact that you mention Russia is a perfect example. Would have Bill Gates succeeded in Russia? Hell no. Would he have succeeded in France? No. England? No. Germany? No. Japan? No.

There is something intrinsic about Bill Gates success that is a direct product of America, and since he is gaining the lion share of the benefit, he should pay a disproportionate portion of the burden.

End of arguement

____________________

carl29:

"The Georgia surge continues"

The news continues to be extremely good for Obama in Georgia. Early vote totals have now reached 499,582 -- more than 75,000 more than were cast early in all of 2004, according to Matt Carrothers, a spokesman for the Secretary of State.

Most striking: The ratio of African-American voters remains extremely high. 37% of the early votes were cast by black voters, who make up just 29% of the state's electorate.

*I'm not saying that Obama will carry Georgia, but if the state is a barometer of the AA vote, its energy, in the South, things look good in VA and NC.

Obama/Biden '08


____________________

boomshak:

MCCAIN FINALLY HAS AN ECONOMIC PLAN...AND IT'S A DAMNED GOOD ONE:

In my administration, we will instead revive the market by attracting new investment. I will cut in half the capital gains tax on stocks purchased and held for more than a year – from a rate of 15 to 7.5 percent. This vital measure will promote buying, raise asset values, help companies and shore up the pension plans for workers and retirees.

We should also not penalize Americans who are forced to sell investments in today’s tough markets. I will increase the amount of capital losses from $3,000 to $15,000, which can be deducted from your ordinary income in tax years 2008 and 2009. So much of this decline in our markets and value destruction was due to the failure of Congress and the Administration to come out with a timely rescue package. Investors are always responsible for their investment decisions, but the hard earned savings of Americans should not be penalized by the erratic behavior of politicians.

While we put government back on your side, we must reform our tax system to deliver needed tax relief to working Americans, and to create jobs. I will double the child deduction, from 3,500 dollars to 7,000 dollars. Every person in America who chooses it will receive a 5,000 dollars towards the purchase of health insurance – health plans that will be theirs to keep, even if they change jobs or move to another state. And we will reduce the federal business tax rate from 35 percent – the second-highest in the world – to 25 percent. I am also proposing today that for those who are between jobs, we eliminate all taxes on unemployment benefits. It is unclear to me why the government taxes money it has just sent you, and we should relieve this burden from Americans who’ve been hit the hardest.

And then he levels his most effective attack on the substance of Barack Obama’s agenda:

Senator Obama also promises to restrict international trade and risk access to foreign markets for American goods and services. The last President to raise taxes and restrict trade in a bad economy was Herbert Hoover. That didn’t turn out to well. They say those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. Well, I know my history lessons, and I sure won’t make the mistakes Senator Obama will. And were my opponent elected with a Democratic Congress in power, not only would there be no check on my opponent’s reckless economic policies, there would be considerable pressure on him to tax and spend even more.

This weekend, a plumber concerned that Senator Obama was going to raise his taxes asked him directly about his plan. The response was telling. Senator Obama explained to him that he was going to raise his taxes to quote “spread the wealth around.” This explains how Senator Obama can promise an income tax cut for millions who aren’t even paying income taxes right now. My friends, my plan isn’t intended to force small businesses to cut jobs to pay higher taxes so we can “spread the wealth around.” My plan is intended to create jobs and increase the wealth of all Americans.

CONCLUSION:
Now if his innept campaign can just find a way to get this in front of the American people in the next 3 weeks, maybe he can turn this around.

I really must wonder though, weere has all of this been for the last 2 months while Obama went completely UNCHALLENGED on his bogus "tax cut for 95% of Americans"?

____________________

carl29:

boomshak, is his plan as good as his idea of suspending his campaign? Unfortunely for McCain you are NOT the best focus group, but don't worry, we will see how "regular/mainstream" people react :-).

____________________

PJ_FFM:

@boomshak

I always thought that the combination of the word "plan" and "economy" in just one sentence and without a negation were a trademark of, well, dare I say it - COMMUNISM! ;-))))))

I surely must have misunderstood something there.

And by the way: I doubt that a candidate's "having a plan" (or not, or a good one, or a bad one) has anything to do with a particular poll... ;-)

____________________

green baby green:

@ Boomshak:

I am a CPA. I can tell you that cutting the capital gains rate is a TERRIBLE idea. Just what we need, more trickle down economics. And increasing the capital loss carryforward, same thing...

We need to STOP tax the richest in our society at low rates. They need to understand being an American means paying more taxes if you make more - that's all there is too it...and stop with the capital gains breaks already, the vast majority of people in this country don't pay them. Probably you and I do, but so what.

Obama's plan is much better, unless you make over $250k a year, in which case you might (if you are not for fairness that has disappeared since the Reagan days) be totally against it and on board with McSame...

____________________

political_junki:
____________________

Mark in LA:

What did Conservatives & Republicans (not always the same thing) say and promise in 2000? And what did they do over the next four years?

What did Conservatives & Republicans say and promise in 2004? And what did they do for our country?

Now that every Conservative with a brain and conscience is abandoning the GOP, what are the same you promising in 2008?

The electorate bought it in 2000, heck, even I got suckered the first time.
They bought it again in 2004.
We are not buying it this time around.
Sorry "Keep VA Red" & "Boomshak", when you win, America loses. This time America is winning, and your party is headed for the wilderness.

____________________

katocat:

Poll: Obama Opens 14-Point Lead On McCain

CBS News/New York Times Survey Shows Major Swing Among Independents, Suggests McCain's Strategy May Be Hurting Him

.. ouch!

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

I went to an ACORN event a few months ago and said to myself..."wow, what makes america special is in this room tonight."

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

wakeup ...
"PA is closer than you think..."

Why, wakeup, for a change you are right!!!

I could have sworn that Pennsylvania was at least 37 miles from my house, but I find that it's only 33.something driving miles from where I live!!

____________________

bmrKY:

"wakeup:
huetdebd, If Obama was at the top of his class why does he not release his papers? Or better yet how about an article he wrote for the Review?"

I don't know. Why doesn't McCain release his medical records to the media and the public? OMG! IS MUH-KANE GONNA DIE?

____________________

bmrKY:

"CTPonix4BHObama:
I went to an ACORN event a few months ago and said to myself..."wow, what makes america special is in this room tonight.""

Who is John SYDNEY McCain?

*ding*

Alright, I'll take "Lies and Exagerations of GOP Presidential Candidates" for 1000, Alex.

____________________

bmrKY:

"wakeup:
Watch this race narrow..."

Yep. It's gonna narrow from an 8 point Obama lead to a 7.9 point Obama lead.

____________________

rami:

+13 ! At this point, the republican party should consider to stop spending its money in the presidential race and instead focus its effort on saving as much senate seats as possible.

____________________



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